Australian Idol fiasco

Here's the verdict from one bookmaker after last night's Australian Idol debacle which saw Toby Moulton withdraw.

I'd be dirty if my money was with James Johnston to be eliminated. After all, that's the way the vote went.

Regardless, here's the verdict:

ELIMINATION BETS REFUNDED AS TOBY WITHDRAWS

Sportingbet Australia has refunded all of Sunday’s Australian Idol elimination bets following the shock withdrawal of Adelaide schoolteacher Toby Moulton.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said refunding the money was the right thing to do.

“It’s not the punters fault that one contestant decided to withdraw from the competition,” said Sullivan.

“The only fair thing to do was cancel all bets.”

Stan Walker is a $2 favourite to win Australian Idol while James Johnston is the $1.75 favourite to be eliminated next week.

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.00
Hayley Warner 2.50
Nathan Brake 6.50
James Johnston 8.00

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 8 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
James Johnston 1.75
Nathan Brake 2.25
Hayley Warner 11.00
Stan Walker 14.00

Latest Melbourne Cup betting action

At least one punter is confident Daffodil can improve for the Melbourne Cup. They've unloaded $20K on the result. Below is the Sportingbet release:

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON DAFFODIL

Big money has arrived for AJC Oaks winner Daffodil to win the Melbourne Cup with one massive bet struck at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Daffodil shortened from $18 to $14 since the barrier draw on Saturday night as punters warmed to the mare.

“We took a bet of $300,000 to $20,000 on Daffodil along with a number of other good bets on the way in,” Sullivan said.

“Her win in the Oaks showed she is up to this class and her run in the Caulfield Cup suggests the 3200m will suit.

“She is certainly one of the top chances just below favourites Viewed and Alcopop.”

Viewed remains favourite at Sportingbet at $5.00 ahead of Alcopop at $5.50 and Roman Emperor at $9.00.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Viewed 5.00
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Master O’Reilly 13.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Warringah 26.00
C’est La Guerre 26.00
Newport 35.00
Munsef 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
Fiumicino 61.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 71.00
Zavite 71.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 101.00
Gallion’s Reach 201.00
Spin Around 201.00

Not a great weekend

As we always say, we'll tell it warts at all at Aussiepunt, and Derby Day wasn't that great for us.

We backed Rockferry to win the Victoria Derby which wasn't a terrific choice. But we've lost 7% of our bankroll, and it's time to move on - get back on the horse, as they say.

Tuesday is the biggest race day on the calendar and we'll be spending a portion of tomorrow trying to find some winners for everybody.

We'll give you all the news from corporate bookmakers to see where the money's going for the Melbourne Cup. Shocking is no doubt firming after a good run at the weekend. Expect Viewed to start favourite over Alcopop. Value will be with Master O'Reilly and Mourilyan.

But rest assured, we won't be forgetting the other races on the card.

Victoria Derby opens up

Interesting to note that what many thought was a two-horse race, all of a sudden opens up when the favourite is scratched.

Shamoline Warrior is out, and the other fancy Rockferry is steady at $5 or so.

But according to the betting, Onemorenomore, Viking Legend and Monaco Consul have all come into contention. All three are at the $5-6 mark.

Extra Zero is on the next line of betting.

I still like Rockferry, but follow the betting.

Roughie backed to win the Wakeful

This might be a decent tip for those who like value:

The Brian Smith trained Moncalieri has been backed at big odds to upset the applecart of Oaks favourites Run For Naara and Faint Perfume in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been solid backing for the daughter of Encosta De Lago.

“There’s been separate bets to win $60,000 and $20,000 on Moncalieri at $61 with little interest so far for either of the favourites,” said Sullivan.

“There’s plenty to say she can run a big race at big odds.”

2009 WAKEFUL STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Run For Naara 2.50
Faint Perfume 4.20
Melito 5.50
Jolie Brise 9.00
Silent Surround 11.00
Mont Fleuri 13.00
Formalite 23.00
Moncalieri 41.00
Savsbelle 51.00
Flotercher 201.00

Punters support the Warrior in Victoria Derby

Here's the latest Victoria Derby market information from Sportingbet:

Punters are beginning to swarm for Derby favourite Shamoline Warrior with some huge bets struck on the Mark Kavanagh trained colt.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Shamoline Warrior had been a little soft until Thursday but punters have stepped into the $3.30 about him in a big way.

“One client has had $30,000 on him amongst a string of big bets placed in the last 24 hours,” Sullivan said.

“His win last start was outstanding and it is no surprise to see punters stepping in now.”

Sullivan said Rockferry remained his worst result after some big bets were placed on the Danny O’Brien trained colt at big odds in the pre post betting.

“Rockferry is still our worst result at the moment after we took some huge bets including one to win $400,000 at $26 some weeks ago,” Sullivan said.

“However, if the money keeps coming for the Shamoline Warrior like it has in the last 24 hours, they will be as nasty as each other.”

Efficient a gamble in Melbourne Cup

If you're keen to back Efficient in the Melbourne Cup, now seems to be the time to do it:

With 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient still having to pass a vet examination before he is cleared to run on Tuesday, Sporting Australia CEO Michael Sullivan has pledged to refund any bets on him if he doesn’t line up for the Cup.

Sullivan said any bets up to $500 placed between 3.30pm on Thursday, when doubts over the horses arose and Saturday evening when the final field was declared would be refunded if he didn’t overcome the injury.

“Efficient has been posted as unlikely and normally at this stage there are no scratching refunds or deductions on other horses prices if a horse is withdrawn but I think in this case refunding punters money is the right thing to do,” Sullivan said.

“There are some doubts over the horse and many punters like to get their Cup bets on early so we are just providing them with the assurance they won’t do their money if he is ruled out.

“Obviously all bets on any scratched runner are refunded once the final field is declared but that is not until Saturday night.”

Effiecient blew from $6.00 to 8.50 at Sportingbet Australia yesterday as punters rushed to back other contenders.

“Punters put big money down yesterday on Viewed and Alcopop who are now $5.50 joint favourites while there was also strong support for Roman Emperor who shortened from $12 to $8.50,” Sullivan said.

“If all is well with Efficient though, punters are now getting great value about a former winner, who is in great form and obviously proven at the two miles.”

2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Viewed 5.50
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 8.50
Efficient (unlikely) 8.50
Vigor 14.00
Daffodil 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Mourilyan 23.00
Kirklees 23.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Capecover 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Kibbutz 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Hume 61.00
Others 81.00 Plus

Early Flemington race tips from Mark Read

Here's some tips from Mark Read for tomorrow's card:

This years Derby shapes up to be a cracker, says IASbet.com's Mark Read.

Shamoline Warrior ($3.20) has drawn wide in barrier nine, however hell likely take a sit just behind the main group and shouldnt be disadvantaged from there, said Read.

He's been very impressive in his past two runs and deserves his outright favouritism.

Rockferry ($5) was an absolute moral beaten in the Geelong Classic and could provide punters plenty of value.

He will relish the big track and I think he may show us what hes made of. Ill be on Rockferry with a saver on Shamoline Warrior.Looking to the other Group 1 races, I expect Demerit ($7) to give Irish Lights ($6) a run for her money in the Coolmore.

When the field splits, I expect these two to beat their respective groups home, with Irish Lights on the inside from barrier 1 and Demerit hitting the grandstand rail from barrier 10.

It will just depend on which group is fastest!Rangirangdoo ($3.50) destroyed his rivals in the Crystal Mile, and I think hell do the same against a crack field in the Mackinnon Stakes.

He'll get a nice sit from barrier 4 and I can see Corey Brown unleashing him with about 400m to go and swamping the front-runners.

Quite a few runners in this fine-tuning for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup and it will be an interesting race.

Typhoon Tracy ($2.10) is far superior against her own sex, though has drawn poorly (barrier 13) in the Myer Classic.

Lady Lynette ($15) provides excellent value based on her last run at the Valley and is a solid each way chance.

Good offer for Melbourne Cup

Sportsbet is offering one of the better deals I've seen for the Melbourne Cup. You'd be hard-pressed finding a similar offer from the TAB.

Sportsbet.com.au is offering punters their money back if Cups King Bart Cummings claims his 13th Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

If your horse finishes second to a Bart Cummings trained horse, Sportsbet.com.au will refund your stake to a maximum of $100.

“With the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate already in Bart’s trophy cabinet, the others in this year’s Cup could well be fighting for second place,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“As such, we’re offering punters their money back if their horse finishes second to a Bart Cummings trained horse.

“At the moment Bart has three runners with good chances (Viewed $6.50, Roman Emperor $10, Allez Wonder $34) and the special will remain if he manages to get Dandaad or Naval Escort into the Cup field via the Lexus Stakes.”

Two-horse race in Victoria Derby

Seems there are some big bets going down for Rockferry in the Victoria Derby, but Shamoline Warrior has not been forgotten.

Here's the latest from Sportsbet:

“We’ve taken a large amount of bets since the barrier draw,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane, “yet from speaking to some of the big punters, they’re waiting to see how the track will rate after the first couple of races before getting stuck in.”

“In the Derby, second-favourite Rockferry is currently our single worst result. He was a sure thing beaten in the Geelong Classic and the extra trip and wide track should suit him to a tee.

“Shamoline Warrior has won his last two in dominant fashion and is a deserved favourite, but personally I think he’ll have to bring out his very best to hold out Rockferry.”

Big bets so far:

$10,000 multi bet to win $135K – Shamoline Warrior (Derby) into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$2,000 multi bet to win $200K – Shamoline Warrior (Derby), into Alcopop (Cup), into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$733 multi bet to win $100K – Monaco Consul (Derby), into Alcopop (Cup), into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$5,000 multi bet to win $85K – Run For Naara (Wakeful), into Shamoline Warrior (Derby), into First Command (Salinger)
$6,000 each way on Rockferry at $9

Novelty bets for Victoria Derby Day

The betting market among corporate bookmakers has become hugely competitive, and everybody's looking at new ways to entice punters into having a lunge.

Sportsbet today released a heap of options which are likely to be repeated for the Melbourne Cup.

Here's a few:

Pick the star sign of the Derby winner, based on their foaling date.
Virgo $1.60 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Gathering, Our Heir Apparent, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend
Libra $3.60 Monaco Consul, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye
Scorpio $5.60 Rockferry, Prinsom

Will the Derby winner be posh or a pauper? Based on career earnings to date.
Posh ($195,000+ career earnings) $2.25 Onemorenomore, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend
Paupers (under $195,000) $1.65 The Rest

Will the Derby winner be a Cadet or a Corporal? Based on number of career runs to date.
Cadets (6 starts or less) $1.40 Monaco Consul, Our Heir Apparent, Rockferry, Shamoline Warrior
Coporals (7 starts plus) $3.00 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Gathering, Onemorenomore, Prinsom, Southern Skye, Viking Legend

Pick where the Derby winner is trained out of.
Victoria $1.65 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Prinsom, Rockferry, Shamoline Warrior
NSW $3.65 Gathering, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye, Viking Legend
NZ $5.00 Monaco Consul, Our Heir Apparent

In each of the Alpha-Bet markets below, punters can select the group from which the Derby winner will come from.
Jockey’s surname alpha-bet
Group A $2.95 Commanage Close, Monaco Consul, Rockferry Group B $3.75 Extra Zero, Gathering, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye
Group C $2.10 Our Heir Apparent, Prinsom, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend

Trainer's surname
Group A $2.50 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, ShamolineWarrior
Group B $2.45 Monaco Consul, Prinsom, Rockferry, Southern Skye Group C $3.65 Gathering, Onemorenomore, Our Heir Apparent, Viking Legend

Fancy one nag over another? Take your pick in the following Head to Head markets.

Shamoline Warrior vs Rockferry
Shamoline Warrior $1.55
Rockferry $2.45

Rockferry vs Monaco Consul
Rockferry $1.70
Monaco Consul $2.15

Southern Skye vs Our Heir Apparent
Southern Skye $1.90
Our Heir Apparent $1.90

Melbourne Cup action

Expect some action in the Melbourne Cup markets immediately following acceptance.

Following is an unedited statement released today by Sportingbet Australia.

PUNTERS SWEAT ON START FOR VIGOR

Sportingbet Australia punters are sweating on the Danny O’Brien trained Vigor gaining a start in next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup with one punter standing to win over half a million dollars.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Vigor was clearly Sportingbet’s worst way at the moment with punters backing him since the all in markets opened.

“Vigor opened up as a $51 shot and punters stepped in with one bet of $500,000 to $10,000 and other punters on to win $100,000 and $50,000 at those odds,” said Sullivan.

“He’s been as short as $8.50 and has not lost popularity at any stage.”

Vigor is currently at odds of $18.00 but Sullivan said those odds would trim up if he got a run.

“His run in the Caulfield Cup was superb and if he gets a run without having to race this weekend, those odds will tighten up significantly,” Sullivan said.

Alcopop and Efficient remain $6 joint favourites at Sportingbet ahead of the Bart Cummings pair of Viewed and Roman Emperor at $7 and $11 respectively.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 6.00
Viewed 7.00
Roman Emperor 11.00
Zipping 14.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Daffodil 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Vigor 18.00
Mourilyan 19.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Shocking 26.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Kirklees 35.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Others 71.00 Plus

Punters go early for Bart in Melbourne Cup

Bart Cummings has won the season's two major races. Punters think he's a fair bet to pick up a remarkable treble in the Melbourne Cup.

At $4.50, there are better bets for mine.

Bart Cummings has been posted as a $4.50 chance to complete a historic treble and win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had launched into Bart Cumming’s horses in both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate and were doing the same for next Tuesday’s big one.

“Bart Cummings is undoubtedly the best trainer of stayers we have ever seen and punters have had a fill up following him this Spring again,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have been backing all his runners for the Cup so we have posted a price of $4.50 for any one of his horses to give him another Cup win.

“Viewed and Roman Emperor are obviously his best chances after they ran the quinella in the Caulfield Cup but it would be silly to write off any of his chances.”

Sullivan said he expected punters to lap up the $4.50 on offer for the master trainer.

“Punters and particularly fans of Bart have full pockets following the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate wins and I would expect them to launch again for the Cup,” he said.

‘I can’t see many punters been willing to take the $1.20 about him not been able to get the job done a thirteenth time.”

Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Yes, Bart Cummings will win the Cup $4.50
No, Bart Cummings will not win the Cup $1.20

Betting reopens for Australian Idol elimination

We don't mind a bet on Australian Idol, so the following news from Sportingbet comes as welcome.

Our early tip: James Johnston won't get to sing next week.

Sportingbet Australia punters now have the opportunity to bet on Australian Idol eliminations following the show’s producers decision to extend voting until Friday night.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters would be pleased with the decision.

“The phone has rung off the hook with punters wanting to bet on the eliminations but with such a short voting window it was impossible to accommodate them on more than a limited basis,” said Sullivan.

“Idol elimination betting has been extremely popular in previous years and punters will be well pleased that it’s back to the old way of doing things.”

Sportingbet Australia expects Toby Moulton ($2.25) and James Johnston ($2.50) to fight out next week’s elimination while Stan Walker ($2.50) and Hayley Warner ($2.75) the favourites to be crowned 2009 Australian Idol.


2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 1 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Toby Moulton 2.25
James Johnston 2.50
Nathan Brake 5.50
Stan Walker 5.50
Hayley Warner 9.00


2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.50
Hayley Warner 2.75
Nathan Brake 4.00
James Johnston 8.00
Toby Moulton 9.00

Thanks to followers of Aussiepunt

Thanks to those who passed on their thanks for our tips this weekend.

One punter cleaned up on So You Can Think in the Cox Plate. Another followed our tip that New South Wales would win the Champions League cricket Twenty20 competition.

Our response? No worries. Glad to be of assistance.

If you've got a tip you want to add to Aussiepunt, simply let us know and we'll share it with others.

Cricket win helps the balance

We were in danger of going backwards last night after Central Coast imploded in the soccer, but Brett Lee came to our rescue in the Champions League cricket.

NSW brought us home a $3.10 return on our speculator.

So if you have any late mail on the track this afternoon, be sure to let me and readers of the Aussiepunt blog know.

I still like Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate, but there's virtually no talk of it going into the race. Perhaps people feel it's better suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.

A tip for anybody who might be interested: Sportsbet has a fairly good promotion, allowing its members to tip on each race on the Melbourne card. It's free to enter and there's a $70,000-odd worth of prizes at the end of it.

I figure I've got nothing to lose by giving it a bash!

Smith's chip promo ... now that's creative!

Now this is creative.

Smith's goes out to find a new chip flavour and throws it out to the people.

People argue about which of four finalist chip flavours are best - the coat of arms flavour; late night kebab; popcorn; or caesar salad.

Sportingbet Australia saw an opportunity, and has consequently opened a book on which one will win.

They've got the late night kebab and coat of arms fighting for favouritism, and why not: They're basically a variation on barbecue flavour. If popcorn wins, you'll get $4 in the running, and $4.50 if you like salad in a chip.

“This competition has created great debate around the country and punters have been keen to match their tastebuds with their wallets,” CEO Michael Sullivan said.

“We’ve had plenty of phone calls from punters wanting to back their personal favourites.”

Central Coast worth looking at in soccer

Central Coast Mariners are worth looking at in tonight's game versus the Newcastle Jets.

Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.

Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.

Central Coast is still paying $2.60.

And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.

In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.

AAMI Vase latest market

The Cox Plate is not the only race of significance tomorrow:

Sportingbet Australia punters have backed Moonee Valley specialist Carrara in from $5 to $4 for tomorrow’s AAMI Vase.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said history was on the Tony Vasil trained gallopers side.

“Nine of the last twelve winners of this race have come through the Caulfield Guineas and there’s plenty of smart money for Carrara,” said Sullivan.

“While he has to be a slight doubt at the trip he could just get a soft lead and has definitely shown a liking for the track.”

Extra Zero is an easing $3.50 favourite for the AAMI Vase.

AAMI Vase
Sportingbet Australia Market
Extra Zero $3.50
Carrara $4.40
Viking Legend $4.80
Miss With Attitude $6.50
Spacecraft $7.50
Hanks $8.50
Morossa $26
Rivers Lane $31

Whobe drifting by the minute

Here's the latest releast from Sportingbet Australia, which indicates there will be some good odds floating around, no matter which horse you fancy in the Cox Plate:

Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou continues to drift in betting markets as punters swarm to back Heart of Dreams and last year’s runner up Zipping.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were betting all around the favourite who has blown from $2.50 to $3.20 following the barrier draw on Tuesday.

“Whobegotyou has been unlayable since the barrier draw as a host of other runners have been crunched in the market,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have launched at Heart of Dreams who has shortened from $8.50 on Sunday to his current price of $5.50 and there has been plenty of smart money put on him.

“Zipping has also been backed from $21 to $15 as punters look for quality weight for age performers.”

Sullivan said he expected the tide to turn at some point and punters would step into Whobegotyou tomorrow.

“He is still the best horse in the race for mine and he is four from four at the Valley so there is little doubt there will be money for him tomorrow,” Sullivan said.

“He is still our worst result as punters have been backing him for months and I think they will step in again tomorrow to make him a complete strip out if he salutes.”

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.20
Heart Of Dreams 5.50
Speed Gifted 11.00
So You Think 11.00
Scenic Shot 14.00
El Segundo 15.00
Zipping 15.00
Vision And Power 16.00
Rock Kingdom 17.00
Black Piranha 18.00
Manhattan Rain 21.00
Road To Rock 26.00
Nom De Jeu 71.00
Sir Slick 151.00

Cox Plate markets start to take shape

And here they come ... the betting movements on the Cox plate have started. Here's the first statement of the day, from IASbet.

Melbourne, 23 October 2009 - As racing's focus turns to Moonee Valley and the Cox Plate IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read says you shouldn't overlook the obvious when it comes to assessing the race.

Whobegotyou ($3) has run at the track four times for four wins, he won the Yalumba Stakes last start and is a deserving favourite.

Read suggests sticking to the local hopes with Heart Of Dreams ($5.50), Zipping ($15), and El Segundo ($15) all creating interest.

El Segundo has won the race before, Zipping was second last year and Heart Of Dreams has been running great races in all the key lead ups."

Bart Cummings three year old So You Think ($15 into $11) has been one of the better backed runners and as we learnt last week, ignore Bart at your peril!

The Schweppes Stakes (1200m) should be a fantastic race according to Read.

"This is a Group One field in a Group Two race," Read said. "Lucky Secret ($3.30) and Apache Cat ($3.60) must be respected with fantastic Moonee Valley records, but Light Fantastic ($13) and Danleigh ($9) represent the value. Danleigh won the Manikato Stakes over the same Distance at the Valley a month ago and should again be prominent. "

Random integrity comment

This has nothing to do with this blog's usual content stream, but I note there are moves to tighten laws on streaming of information.

It's about time we got rid of people posting incredulous reviews about products they have never seen, let alone tested or used. You won't see any of that rubbish here.

For the sake of full disclosure, here's how this blog works: If you click on a Google ad, I get a few cents. Last time I looked, there was about $6 in the account.

If you open an account after clicking on the affiliate ads at the side of the page, I get a commission. I'm not sure how much because it hasn't happened yet, and frankly, I'm not worried if it ever happens.

The bottom line: This site is for fun. I do it because I enjoy it. This is an open invitation to join in the banter, offer fellow punters a piece of advice, a tip, an observation, friendly fire, whatever takes your fancy.

And my only advice for now: Bet only what you can afford. If it's not enjoyable, don't do it.

Cox Plate odds

In terms of Australian sport, it's all about racing over the next couple of weeks, at least until the end of the Spring Carnival. And the next big race on the calendar is the Cox Plate.

There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.

Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:

Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.

“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.

“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.

“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.

“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13

NSW good bet to win champions league

Any Twenty20 bet in cricket is fraught with danger, but we think New South Wales has both the form and the side which can beat anybody on an even playing field.

The bowling attack is by far supreme to any other. Lee, Clark, Bollinger and Hauritz could well be Australia's bowling lineup, as could Warner, Hughes and Katich at the top order. Neither can we underestimate the all-round ability of Moises Henriques.

Victoria is a threat. Cameron White, Brad Hodge and David Hussey can tear an attack apart, and they have Siddle and Harwood who can keep opposition lineups quiet, despite Harwood going for 38 off his three overs against Cape Cobras last time they met.

Cape Cobras are similarly dangerous, in that Herschell Gibbs, JP Duminy and Puttick can move the scoring along early. Zondeki has been bowling okay, but it's hard to see them bowling too many sides out cheaply. It's their batting which can cause real problems.

Trinidad and Tobago has been the real surprise packet, and like any decent Twenty20 side, can get a move on if things go right.

Given the inconsistency of the competition, and the somewhat random nature of this form of cricket, we'll be having no more than a speculator (ie, 5% of our bankroll). But all things fair and even, we should be on a winner with New South Wales, and I'm tipping it will be against the Cape Cobras.

Latest odds are as follows:
New South Wales $3.10
Victoria $3.50
Trinidad & Tobago $3.60
Cape Cobras $4.25

Latest Cox Plate movements

At Aussiepunt, we'll be following racing market fluctuations over the coming week. But following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia which give a good indication of how people see this weekend's Cox Plate in its early phases of development:

Lloyd Williams’ horse Zipping has been heavily backed to go one better than last year and win the Cox Plate shortening from $21 to $16 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Zipping had been the best backed runner alongside favourite Whobegotyou in the last 24 hours.

“Zipping’s run in the Cox Plate was enormous last year and with him being the only survivor from the placegetters from last year, punters have stepped in,” Sullivan said.

“We took bets of $60,000 to $3000, $20,000 to $1000 and a number of other good sized bets as the price trimmed up to $16.

“He has shown enough this time in to suggest he will run a big race and the stable knows how to get them ready for the big races.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou remained Sportingbet’s worst result and there was still strong money for the favourite at $2.50 this week.

“Whobegotyou has been our worst result for a long time and punters have kept coming for him,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

Whobegotyou 2.50
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Speed Gifted 8.00
El Segundo 10.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Black Piranha 16.00
So You Think 17.00
Rock Kingdom 21.00
Efficient 26.00
Viewed 31.00
Vigor 31.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Roman Emperor 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 61.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Jolies Shinju 101.00

Australian Idol form guide: Final 6

I didn't put up a new form guide for Australian Idol last week because it all seemed too hard - not putting up the form, but deciding where everyone was at.

But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.

So here's the form:

Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.

Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.

Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.

James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.

Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.

Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.

Four weeks worth of winners!

Aussiepunt has tipped followers winners four weeks in a row.

As readers know, each Friday we invite a guest tipster. We try to find people who have a bit of a clue, and it's proven worthwhile.

This week, Haydn Lane from IASbet knew the pressure was on. Three guest tipsters before him had sent our bankroll moving forward so he went in search of a few winners from the racing stable of the betting pit.

His leading racing tips, Shamoline Warrior and First Command both ran home, giving us a stress free weekend, and shooting our bankroll 30% further into the black.

The only let down was Jorge Lorenzo who, as watchers of this afternoon's Moto GP will know, skidded off the track on the first turn of the race.

For anyone who followed Haydn in the Caulfield Cup (and we're sorry we didn't) would have had an each way bet on Viewed, making their weekend even better.

At Aussiepunt, we share tips because we love what we do. That's why they're free. Here's some pretty good reasons to share the secret:

Week 1: Aussiepunt starts with a bankroll of $100. AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell tips two from four winners, including a 10-1 shot, spiralling our bankroll forward 67%.

Week 2: Matt Campbell from Sportsbet gives us only two tips. But one of them is Speed Gifted which runs home at 6-1. Our bankroll takes another 73% boost.

Week 3: Michael Sullivan, CEO from Sportingbet Australia gives us three tips. The two horses lose, although Tootsie runs second giving us each way odds. He makes up for it by tipping the soccer draw between the Socceroos and the Netherlands. Bankroll up 16%.

Week 4: Haydn Lane from IASbet and Sportsbet picks two winners which run home at $3.60 and $2.50 (on the tote, some might have taken higher odds with bookies earlier). Bankroll up 31%.

Bankroll boosts to some might seem smaller than they should be. But our formula is conservative to prepare us for possible losses. We put 10% on each of our guest tipsters tips, which mean we rarely invest more than 30% of our bankroll on any given weekend.

In addition to the above, we've tipped winners in rugby league, Australian Idol, cricket, rugby union and television. We've provided form guides for cricket, golf, football, politics, poker and other events. And we'll continue to do so.

Our bankroll sits triple what it started at. And we've taken some unlucky beats with narrow losses in cricket and footy.

But therein lies our mission: To gamble responsibly, having plenty of fun along the way.

Big bet for Allez Wonder in Caulfield Cup

The odds of Bart Cummings winning a seventh Caulfield Cup have shortened dramatically in the last 24 hours as punters have backed all three of his chances at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Toorak winner Allez Wonder had shortened from $14 to $11 as big money arrived while Viewed and Roman Emperor had also been well backed.

“Allez Wonder has attracted the bulk of support including one bet of $130,000 to $10,000,” said Sullivan.

“But there’s also been good money for both Viewed and Roman Emperor at double figure odds.

“Bart is the Cups king and punters think can break his Caulfield Cup drought tomorrow.”

Sportingbet Australia is also offering a market on whether or not either Anthony or Bart Cummings will supply a placegetter with punters backing the yes option in from $2.00 into $1.90.

“It may be a dozen years since the Cummings name has figured on the honour roll of placegetters but punters are certainly confident that between them they can end the drought this year,” Sullivan said.

Randwick longshot well backed

Punters have sensationally backed former South African galloper Seventh Rock to win tomorrow’s Lightning Handicap at Randwick.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some spirited betting had forced the price of the entire from $61 to $21.

“We had one punter back it to win $10,000 as soon as markets opened and it’s been a steady stream since.”

“While the horse may have been disappointing since hitting our shores, there was merit in his last run and reports are strong that David Payne has turned this bloke around.”

The Alan Denham trained Youthful Jack is Sportingbet Australia’s Lightning Handicap favourite at $3.50.

Haydn Lane this week's guest tipster

IASbet public relations manager Haydn Lane might be best known for having his finger on the pulse in AFL circles.

And he's certainly promised to share some winners with aussiepunt readers when next season rolls around.

Haydn's also a pretty handy cricketer, having spent a season batting and tweaking off-spinners at Middlesex, and another as Boston Cricket Club's overseas pro in the Lincolnshire Premier League. Locally, he plays for Melbourne CC and has trained with the Victorian squad.

But that's all behind us. What is more to the point is that we happen to know Haydn has some pretty good connections with the nags. He's owned a few and will no doubt be seen burrowing around Caulfield tomorrow.

He knows he's under immense pressure this week, following in the footsteps of three Friday guest tipsters who've each put us in the black.

"I'll have to do some digging then," he said, perhaps a little nervously. And dig he did, hassling a few of the racing gurus in the betting pit.

Here's Haydn's three picks for the weekend:

Caulfield, Race 4: Number 2, Shamoline Warrior (currently paying $3.60).

Caulfield, Race 9: Number 4, First Command (currently paying $3.40).
Haydn says he's very keen on this one.

Australian Moto GP: Jorge Lorenzo (currently at $3)
Haydn says to back Lorenzo straight out as he's been in super form. That advice comes despite Casey Stoner's return from injury.

As always, we'll be riding with our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll (now at $260) on each of Haydn's selections. At those odds, we'll be taking the horses to cross the line first.

If you're looking for an each way punt on the Caulfield Cup, Haydn suggests Viewed each way at $14 is worth a shot, and Master O'Reilly to run a big race from a wide barrier.

Daffodil a serious Caulfield Cup hope

Following is an unedited statement released by IASbet this morning. This isn't our Friday guest tipster spot, but might well be worth a serious look:

While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.

"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.

"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.

"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."

Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.

From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.

For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.

No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.

However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.

"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."

Cima de Triomphe gets Caulfield Cup support

Just as we release a report that punters are going for Kirklees, Centrebet puts out a release saying Cima de Triomphe has claims.

Here's the release:

Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!

The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.

Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.

Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.

“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.

The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.

The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.

One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.

And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.

Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.

CAULFIELD CUP

$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)

Latest Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets

Kirklees trainers were last night gloating about their horse's chances in the Caulfield Cup, particularly when they got a favourable barrier draw.

The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:

KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS

European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.

“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.

“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”

Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.

2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00

2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus

November 9 WSOP final table form guide

World Series of Poker
November 9 final table

Not too many bookies are taking odds on the WSOP final table as yet, but there's plenty of interest in those who are. And it's an interesting mix of chip counts and personalities who will mix it up for the $8.5 million first prize.

Here's our assessments:

Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips)
Sportsbet $3.50; Luxbet $3.80; Betway $3.75
The 45-year-old logging company owner is remarkably one of the oldest at the final table. He is also massive chip leader which is the primary reason for his favouritism. He has more than a quarter of all chips at the table, and has been proud of the fact that he hasn’t yet had to commit all his chips to a showdown. That's right. Not one all in bet in eight days of play.
Despite playing poker at the young age of 12 with his grandfather, Moon only discovered Texas holdem three years ago, which many would see as a disadvantage under the pressure of a final table, television lights, crowds and all that goes with it.
He made the main event after entering a $130 buy in tournament at Wheeling, West Virginia. Not a bad investment for someone who wanted to play poker to help raise money for local fire halls and other charities.
He puts his success so far down to “good cards” … a humble assessment.
Not only will Moon start the bookie’s favourite. He will also take some sentimental support with him into the final days of play. He is certainly well placed.

Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $4.75; Luxbet $5.25; Betway $5
The 29-year-old New Yorker has been a professional poker player for the best part of nine years and goes into the final in a terrific position, albeit more than 20 million behind the chip leader.
Buchman is familiar with big tournament environments, having won the 2004 New England Poker Classic, and run second in three WSOP bracelet events. But therein lies the worry for punters. Buchman seems to have trouble finishing off the job. He's also had 10 WSOP cashes.
Without progressing further, the final table will be the biggest earnings of his career, more than doubling his $900,000 or so earnings on the tour so far.
Buchman had his moment of luck on day 7 when he risked all his chips with A-10 of hearts against pocket jacks. He hit the flush to double up to 6 million chips.
Buchman is an accomplished player, but will a line of runners up finishes come back to haunt him if he finds himself heads up?

Phil Ivey (9,765,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $6
This is where the quality of the player and the number of chips starts to mess with punters' heads. Phil Ivey is regarded by most as the best poker player in the world. But he sits 7th in chip stack at the start of the final table, which is something which does not necessarily suit his aggressive style of play.
If anyone can change up to suit the conditions, it's Ivey, and that's why there is money for him to win the event from well behind.
Ivey has seven WSOP bracelets already to his name, and if he's in the final three - regardless of chip stack - you'd back him to win.
All others at the final table will fear his presence, and they will be aware of his uncanny ability to read his opposition.
But chip stack is a worry and even a player of his supreme calibre will need a little luck from where he sits.

Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6; Betway $7
As senior principal of investment broker Flexpoint Ford, this New Yorker has premium business pedigree. And he'll start the final table with a healthy chip stack, plenty of confidence, and a crowd of support behind him.
Like Buchman, his moment of luck came on day 7 when he pushed all in with A-Q against pocket kings. The ace hit on the turn which led to a 10 million chip swing.
Remarkably, Begleiter won his seat in a home game, which means he'll be splitting his winnings with friends of that game. They'll each pocket a percentage of the winnings, and will likely be a vocal part of the crowd at the main event finish.
He's already made his way through 6485 opponents to make the final table, and if business acumen can be applied to poker, he'll be a genuine chance.
But the question mark here is whether brains can overcome street smarts when it comes to buckling in to pressure poker. After all, we're essentially talking about a home game player.
With that in mind, even the 7-1 at Betway is a little tight, regardless of Begleiter's chip stack.

Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips)
Sportsbet $7; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $7
The CardPlayer Magazine editor, 34, has a point to prove, and if determination to win the World Series counts for anything, Shulman will be right up there in the finish.
Opposition magazine Bluff was given the rights to sponsor the event, and Shulman has voiced his "lack of respect" for the WSOP management "and what they've done to all of the players". He has said he might throw away his bracelet if he wins the event. Them's fighting words!
They say there's no place for anger at the poker table, but Shulman is a seasoned professional, having already made a final table in 2000 when he cashed in for $146,000. It's nothing like the $1.2 million guaranteed for ninth place finish at this year's event, but the experience will count when it comes to coping with final table pressure.
Further in his favour, Phil Hellmuth is coaching Shulman in the months leading up to the event, no doubt pocketing a percentage of the winnings for his services.
However, Shulman's experience is below that of Buchman, career earnings of about $400,000 well below Buchman, and his starting chip stack about 10 million below Buchman.
While "justice" might be his objective, the odds are perhaps a little under where they should be.

Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $15; Betway $13
From Coral Springs, Florida, this 51-year-old man is a value bet at the final table. At $17, we only need to look at his recent form which have led to his $640,000+ in poker earnings to believe he is a chance to win.
Schaffel is yet to win a bracelet, but he's come close, finishing second in the Legends of Poker event in August this year.
The father of two sits in sixth spot and has some nasty opposition to leapfrog.
Like all those around him, he'll need some luck. But the odds are not indicative of his pedigree as a poker player.

Joe Cada (13,215,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $12; Betway $13
The youngest man in the field aims to repeat the efforts of another 21-year-old Peter Eastgate. What would be the chances of that? Two 21-year-olds in successive years, both breaking a record Phil Hellmuth held for 24 years as the youngest ever world champion.
Cada cashed twice in tournaments leading up to the main event and has proven an established young player.
He sits neatly in the middle of the pack and could make his mark on the chip leaders with a little luck on the first day of the final table.
He's already showed during the tournament that he's happy to be aggressive, re-raising Phil Ivey and causing him to fold several times before the final table.
He won't be scared off and could have been even better placed if his aces hadn't been cracked by 10s on Day 8. Cada is a wildcard and might be worth a gentle punt at the odds of $17.

James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $21
In terms of recent form, the 26-year-old British poker professional is perhaps the most highly credentialled at the table. But his chip stack is the problem. He starts November 9 in 9th place and will need some luck in the running to make good from there.
But in percentage terms, he's not much worse off than anybody up to double his own chip stack, but the danger lies in that an all-in bet against anybody else at the table puts his tournament life at risk.
He finished 4th in the 2008 UK Open, came runner up in the same year at a WSOP bracelet event and in 2007 won a $1000 buy in event during the Bellagio Cup. He is sponsored and, winnings included, very well paid.
If he had twice the chips, he'd be half his current odds. In poker terms, that's just one fortunate hand away.
He might not win the event, but he's one player who is priced over the odds.

Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $19
The Frenchman is the second European at the table and the rank outsider to win the event. He is similarly short-stacked alongside Phil Ivey and will need some luck to get himself back into the tournament.
But he's showed his final table appearance is more than luck with a final table appearance in the Europe Main Event earlier this month.
He played to the left of Ivey for the last three days of the WSOP main event, so position won't worry him. Saout has only been playing poker for about 18 months, so it is no wonder punters are doubting his ability to bust through far more experienced opponents.

Whobegotyou firms after Maldivian ruled out of Cox Plate

Below is a media statement released today by Sportingbet Australia:

WHOBEGOTYOU FIRMS AS MALDIVIAN RULED OUT

The Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou has firmed into $2.50 to win the Cox Plate following the news that stablemate Maldivian has been ruled out of the remainder of the Spring Carnival.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Maldivian looked to be Whobegotyou’s biggest rival.

“Whobegotyou has shortened from $3.00 to $2.60 following the news of Maldivian’s unfortunate injury,” Sullivan said.

“Whobegotyou is short enough a couple of weeks out from the race and we will be looking to lay him now despite his tremendous record at the Valley.

“But punters were already considering it a match race and there don’t look to many challenges to Whobegotyou as the heir to the title of Australia’s weight for age champion.”


2009 COX PLATE – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 2.60
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
El Segundo 10.00
Predatory Pricer 10.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Black Piranha 17.00
Efficient 19.00
So You Think 21.00
Zipping 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
Red Ruler 31.00
Viewed 35.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Kirklees 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Cest La Guerre 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 51.00
Extra Zero 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Roman Emperor 81.00
Zarita 81.00
Trusting 81.00
Gallica 151.00
Sarrera 151.00
Magical Pearl 151.00
Chasm 251.00
Mentality 301.00
Douro Valley 301.00
Prima Nova 301.00
Sir Slick 301.00
Sound Of Nature 301.00

WA favoured in Sheffield Shield opener

We'll be backing Western Australia to get more points against Queensland in today's opening Sheffield Shield cricket encounter.

Queensland's bowling attack seems to lack depth, and batting has at times seemed fragile. James Hopes out of the side will be a huge loss.

Western Australia however is stacked with Australian fringe players including Adam Voges, Sean Marsh and captain Marcus North. Former Bull Ashley Noffke is a huge bonus and with Magoffin and Dorey should be able to bowl the Bulls out twice.

The $1.50 on WA for mine is worth taking and we'll be putting 10% of our bankroll on that result.

Guest tipster comes good three weeks running

The Aussiepunt bankroll took yet another boost at the weekend thanks to the tips of our guest punter.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan's tips didn't have quite the same impact as those of Matt Campbell and Grant Stockwell before him, but a win's a win and we'll take 16% into the black any day.

Let's take a quick look back at his tips:

It was a bad start with Marquardt in the third at Caulfield. With Bowman on board and a good record starting fresh, the Kiwi galloper came in sharply in the dying minutes before the race, starting second favourite. But racing three and four wide for most of the race, there was no gas in the tank for the finish we needed. No joy for punters there.

Tootsie in the ninth, however, was every chance. Had it not been for the late charge from a 30-1 shot, we'd have been more in the money. But $2.70 for a place meant we weren't in a total disaster area.

A draw in the soccer saved our bacon. Here's a reminder of what Sullivan said: "The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents."

"Hold out" is the key part of this phrase. We were lucky, but we'll take it all the same.

With the Spring Carnival heating up, we'll try to keep you up with market movements, particularly for the Caulfield Cup, as the week progresses.

Joe Hockey firms as Liberal leader

Here's a statement put out today by Sportingbet Australia:

Punters are swarming to Opposition leadership contender Joe Hockey, causing his odds to shorten dramatically from $3.00 to $2.35 to lead the Coalition to the next federal election.

In the midst of intense media speculation, precipitated by the admission by Hockey that he had been ‘tapped on the shoulder’ to lead the party, Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have slumped to $2.00.

While Hockey is considered unwilling to mount a challenge and Turnbull is said to be determined to hold onto the leadership, the decision is widely considered to be out of their hands.

The Coalition party room, heavily divided over the forthcoming emissions trading debate, looks set to decide the issue sooner rather than later; creating a degree of uncertainty for punters.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Opposition leadership market was hotting up, with Hockey attracting strong betting from punters.

“All the betting is with Hockey at the moment which would reflect his newfound status of leader-elect,” said Mr Sullivan.

“However despite the media being full of obituaries for Turnbull today, he remains short at $2.00 which suggests that this may not be over yet.

“Punters aren’t entirely willing to second guess the Coalition party room, which could do anything – or nothing.”

A third leadership option in Tony Abbott, who has also shortened dramatically in recent times, despite being widely dismissed by commentators as unelectable, brings up the rear at $4.25.

Meanwhile other leadership contenders in Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21) have been overtaken by punters backing ‘Any Other’ at $13.00.

FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Turnbull $2.00
Hockey $2.35
Abbott $4.25
Robb $17.00
Dutton $21.00
Bishop $21.00
Any Other $13.00

Michael Sullivan is Friday guest tipster

Leading corporate bookmaker Michael Sullivan isn't shy when it comes to letting people know what he thinks.

As recently as July, he defended himself against NSW Racing after he and other interstate bookies were blamed for a $3 million shortfall in prize money.

Sportingbet sponsors Victorian Racing to the tune of about $3 million a year, but is not given the same sponsorship lattitude in New South Wales.

What happens in the board room might be important to the final outcome of racing. But as punters, we're pretty narrow minded. As long as there's a race, we're happy.

And we're happy to take the superior odds from corporate bookmakers any day. One man who knows all about those odds is the punter who took on a fearless Michael Sullivan to the tune of $5 million on Lonhro winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2004.

We can only hope Michael sent a bottle of his finest to the connections of eventual race winner Grand Armee.

In between fighting the good fight and counting the beans, however, Michael has found time to give Aussiepunt followers a few tips for the weekend.

So here's how we shape up, thanks to Michael Sullivan:

Caulfield race 9: Horse 9, Tootsie. Michael's comments: Has a wide draw to overcome but will strip much fitter for two runs in Melbourne. Class Kiwi galloper who looks very tough to beat with luck in running.

Caulfield Race 3: Horse 10, Marquardt. Michael's comments: Goes well fresh and has the services of Bowman. Is over the odds and likely to be right in the finish.

Soccer: Australia v Netherlands: Draw. Michael's comments: The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents.

As usual at Aussiepunt, we'll be following our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll on each of his tips. We're sorry Michael, but at present our bankroll sits with an opposition bookie. We will, however, be happy to take their money!

We'll be riding Tootsie and Marquardt at each way odds. And a neat $25 on a draw in the soccer.

AFL trade news link

This is the best tracker of trade news I've seen for the AFL, as done by afl.com.au:

http://www.afl.com.au/offseason/tradewindsblog/tabid/15020/Default.aspx

Spring Racing Carnival tipping competition

One thing bookmaker Sportsbet seems to do quite well is its tipping competitions.


Bookies are often looking for the edge when it comes to retaining a loyal audience, and Sportsbet's footy tipping competitions for both league and AFL were well organised.


For those interested, they've not got a spring racing carnival tipping competition under way.


My understanding is you don't have to lodge a bet, nor hold an account with Sportsbet to enter. But there are $85,000 worth of cash and other prizes up for grabs.


First prize is a luxury trip for two to Malaysia. Tipping starts for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday October 17.


There is also a "Fantasy Stable" Competition which kicks off with the Caulfield Guineas tomorrow.


All terms and conditions are on on the Sportsbet website: www.sportsbet.com.au

Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement

As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"

I'd reckon the market has got it about right.

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:

The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.

“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.

“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”


2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00

Hey Hey vs Masterchef

It's often been said that if you want a good guide for social trends. If that's the case, advertisers should be running to Channel 9 tonight for the second and final Hey Hey It's Saturday (on Wednesday) reunion.

With Sportingbet Australia, it's slipped into $1.05 to top the ratings, and as a friend used to say regularly: "It's better than bank interest."

The reunion show goes head to head with Celebrity Masterchef, and it's unlikely even the attraction of lovely former Hi 5 singer Kathleen de Leon deep-frying a spatchcock will help the cooking show outrate Dickie Knee and Plucka.

So what were bookies thinking when they opened the market at $1.30? Did they think a taped version of old hacks in the kitchen would struggle against the uncertainty of live television? I'm just dirty I didn't get a piece of it.

Regardless, real value comes in the ratings: Hey Hey's first show roped in 2.169 million viewers. You'll get $1.95 for it to top the 2 million mark again, and $1.85 if you think enough people have had a gutfull enough to peg it back to under 2 million.

Maybe the de Leon spatchcock factor will have something to do with that?

You'll get $1.85 if you think Celebrity Masterchef will top 1.4 million viewers and $1.95 if you think it'll fall below that figure.

Expect Hey Hey to drop off a little, but whether that translates to Kathleen de Leon (er, Masterchef) remains on a knife-edge.

Take the 5% interest if you wish, but the exact figures will be tough to call.

Australian Idol form guide: Top 8

I started this, so I guess I'd better keep it up.


This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.


Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.

After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.

The form:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.45; Sportingbet $2.75; Betfair $2.94

He's been the favourite all along but after he messed up his song last week, there's some value floating around, especially with Betfair which is offering a nice dividend. He'll bounce back and is highly favoured to be in the top three at the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $3.25; Sportingbet $3; Betfair $4

Hayley is emerging as the biggest threat to Stan and that's reflected in the odds. She's come in from $21 before the final 12 was chosen to almost unbackable odds. Her personality is contagious and she's improving as the weeks go by. She's likely to be the girls' best hope.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $8; Sportingbet $6.50; Betfair $14

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Wingham boy is the idol darkhorse and is not taking too many risks with his odds, particularly seeing that other agencies are offering more than double the $6.50 on offer with Sullivan. "While there is no doubt that Stan Walker and Hayley are worthy favourites, James is looking the most likely outside this pair," he says.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $7; Sportingbet $7; Betfair $7.80

Nathan has consistently been around the $6-7 mark and continues to hover as an outside threat to the top two. The boy can sing and he's shaken off Dicko's "gay" tag with admirable grace. We've tipped him to outlast Kim Cooper who was outstanding last week. It's tough to predict how he'll resonate with voters, so it's a week-to-week prospect from here on in.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8.50; Sportingbet $8; Betfair $23

Wow. What's with the $23 at Betfair? Kim was bottom three two weeks in a row and scraped through. But she's lifted her game to a standard many thought she was capable of in early rounds of the betting. Like Nathan, it's a week-to-week prospect from the North Queenslander.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $10; Sportingbet $10; Betfair $7.80

The brickie was an early favourite, but has lost plenty of favour with punters. There's still plenty of money being held by the bookies for this Aussie battler, but his lack of experience is starting to let him down a bit as he's exposed by more-accomplished performers.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $14; Sportingbet $13; Betfair $23

Still the dark horse for mine. His humble approach wins him plenty of favour, but he'll need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat if he's to outlast the majority of the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $12; Sportingbet $14; Betfair $16.50

It's remarkable that someone who hasn't yet appeared in the bottom three can be regarded the rank outsider with the bookies. Her personality is dragging her through the competition and if she can now pull out something special, her odds might again drop. But it's unlikely she can take the title. Each way odds might be the best option for Kate.

AFL trade updates: Bad boys cause market waves

It seems the bad boys are making all the waves in the AFL trade wars - Hall, Fevola and Brown leading the way.

Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.

Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.

No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.

Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx

Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.

"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.

Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.

Big bet on Rudd confidence today

I'm not sure what term deposit accounts pay over 12 months, but I'm pretty sure it's not more than the vicinity of 5%.

I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.

They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.

If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.

I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.

I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.

But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.

The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.

“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.

“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”

“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”

ICC Champions Trophy final

I'll keep this short. I'd think on form Australia should defeat the kiwis in tonight's final easily.

Granted, there have been upsets in the tournament, but I think $1.38 is a reasonable return.

The New Zealand side relies heavily on its tight fielding to restrict sides below par batting performances. It's then up to their batsmen to be competitive.

Australians have hit form at the right time: Ponting, Watson, Lee, Hussey and Johnson are all handling the South African conditions extraordinarily well.

Anything above $1.30 pre-match is good for mine.

Aussiepunt will be putting a lazy 10% of our bankroll on the Aussies.

Great weekend for aussiepunt

Aussiepunt's bankroll took another 53% rise over the weekend, largely thanks to the big unit from Sportsbet, Matt Campbell.

The former AFL star, turned broadcaster and pro punter, tipped us two winners: Speed Gifted in the 7th at Randwick, and Melbourne to cover the -4.5 line against Parramatta in today's rugby league grand final.

If we thought AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell's two from four record the week before was good (and it was), then Matt's perfect record with aussiepunt takes on legendary status.

Speed Gifted started the betting on Friday at $3.40 but a soggy track at Randwick meant that price blew out to $6.70. Other runners in the race were proven in the wet, but a question mark hung over the imported stayer's ability to handle the heavy track.

The bottom line is that Matt's pick bolted in, and now looks like a real chance to motor over the two mile in a few week's time in Melbourne.

The rugby league bet could have gone either way. We got a bit toey when Fui ran in with eight minutes on the clock. But thankfully, the result went in our favour which added a nice bit of cream on top of an already successful weekend.

The week's stocktake saw us invest in only four events. Two of them were Matt's. Another was a small 5% stake on Pakistan in the one-day thriller - a result which went against us.

And we still have an Australian Idol head to head battle in the running - both Nathan Brake (who we've supported) and Kim Cooper (who we've tipped Nathan to outlast) avoided the bottom three, so we could have a lengthy wait on our hands for that one.

You can catch Matt's weekend tips at sportsbet.com each Friday. We've already lined up a guest tipster for next weekend, but there are now two pretty tough acts to follow.

I'll reveal a bit more about next Friday's guest tipster later in the week.

The bottom line: Our initial bankroll of $100 now stands at $248 with the Idol bet still in the running.

Please note, this site is designed for fun. While we've had a couple of wins, we'll also give a warts and all assessment of our losses. Please don't bet more than you can afford.

Matthew Campbell joins our tipping panel

This week's guest tipster made his mark in the Brisbane Bears midfield from 1987-1993.

For those who don't remember, Matthew Campbell averaged around 18 possessions per game and managed to sneak 28 goals in his 79-game career.

Sadly, the fledgling Bears only managed to win 16 of those games. I do recall trundling down to Carrara on the Gold Coast for Round 20 in 1991 to watch Peter Daicos bag 13 goals, but that's enough reminiscing.

Let's instead focus on Matt's game-high 37 possessions.

Ater a career of individual success amid team disappointments, he's since managed to back a winner career-wise by joining the Sportsbet team in business development.

He is also a sports broadcaster with Fox Sports and has been involved with sports broadcasting for 15 years since retiring from the AFL.

Today, he's been kind enough to share some tips for the weekend.

Tips:

Rugby league: Melbourne to cover the -4.5 start against Parramatta at $1.92.

Horse racing: Saturday, Sydney Race 7, No 9 Speed Gifted to win.

At aussiepunt, we're with you Matt. We'll whack 10% of our bankroll on each of your selections!

Rugby league grand final

"My heart says Parramatta, but my head says Melbourne."

It's a common phrase ringing out amid rugby league fans in Sydney. And while grand finals can by a good betting option given that both teams will be giving their all (and usually the best team does win), this one's tricky.

The question I can't answer is whether the hype will have an effect. Melbourne doesn't have the same passion and expectation as Parramatta. The fairytale aspect behind Parramatta's bid is extraordinary.

Will Hayne and co be able to perform on the big stage? They did last week against the Bulldogs, so you would think they'll be able to repeat the dose.

BUT ... Melbourne is a side full of big-game players. They have half the victorious Queensland State of Origin side, including Greg Inglis, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith.

I'm with the crowd, and the rule of thumb with punting is to always allow your head over-rule your heart.

Melbourne to win.

And if you're unsure, this week's guest tipster is former AFL player Matthew Campbell from Sportsbet. Let's see what he's got to say about the grand final later today!

How will Fevola affect the markets?

It will be interesting to see how the trade of Brendon Fevola affects the long-term AFL betting markets. Just like the stock market, insider trading knowledge about next week's trading period would be handy.

St Kilda and Geelong, as traditionally happens after a grand final, will no doubt be sitting pretty as favourites to repeat the dose in 2010, both at $4.25.

But you can be sure that the team which secures big Fev will drop a couple of points. If it's the Western Bulldogs, as many presume, then they're $7 will probably come in to a similar line as the favourites.

If it's Collingwood, $14 will seem like strawberry jam to punters. Expect that to halve if the Pies can convince the bad boy to join the list of party animals in the black and white.

Sydney at $41 would also shorten, but their sights seem set on Josh Kennedy.

Others in the futures market are Adelaide ($9), Hawthorn ($10), Carlton ($15), Brisbane ($23), Essendon ($26), Port Adelaide ($41), West Coast ($41), Fremantle ($51), Richmond ($51), North Melbourne ($61) and Melbourne ($81).

Cricket thriller gives our bankroll a hit

At the start of this experiment, we said we'd share our wins, losses - warts and all.

And Australia's last-ball win in last night's ICC Champions Trophy clash with Pakistan was a bad result for our bankroll. We predicted the Pakistan team could upset the Australians (at $2.65) and it very nearly happened.

Granted, we treated the bet as a speculator, which meant we only lost 5% of our bankroll.

But like any finely-tuned elite athlete, we hate to lose and feel deeply cut that the performance indicators (a little term I learned hanging around business types) let us down.

We had the teams evenly matched with a slight edge to Pakistan in the bowling and all-rounder stakes. We also said Australia's depth in batting was the key, and that turned out to be the case as numbers 9 and 10 scrambled home with a bye on the last delivery.

At aussiepunt, we still think the Pakistan team is favoured to win the event and we might just have a stab at getting our money back with another speculator on that result.

Let's look at the odds today.

Being an Aussie, it's great to see our boys in the semi-finals, but as a wise punter once said: Always bet with your head, not with your heart.

Our $100 investment now sits at $149 with a $16 bet riding on Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper in Australian Idol at $1.85.

Pakistan vs Australia ICC preview

The ICC Champions' Trophy game tonight looms as a cracker.

In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.

And it's difficult to split the teams.

Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.

Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.

Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.

Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.

Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.

Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.

Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.

Final 9 Australian Idol form guide

Seemingly after much confusion, the Australian Idol market seems to be taking shape.

Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.

But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.

On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.

We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.

We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).

Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.

Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.

Is Tiger Woods a good golf bet?

Tiger Woods is undoubtedly one of the best golfers of all time. He is a credit to the sport, a fierce competitor, a noble sportsman, and a worthy champion.

But let’s open a can of worms. Is he really a good bet?

Let’s look at some of the statistics. In the next three tournaments he plays, Tiger will start at anywhere between $2.50 (Australian Masters) and $3.40 (US Masters).

That means at best, Tiger must win one in three tournaments for us to come out on top. At worst, he needs to win every second time he walks out.

While it’s a fair call to suggest he’s favourite each time he plays, it’s also fair to suggest it’s inhuman to finish first past the post each event.

Tiger has won 6 from 17 events this year. If we’d backed him in each one, we might be slightly ahead. We’d also be incredibly frustrated.

Here’s Tiger’s results:

March 3: 17th World Match Play.
March 15: 9th World Golf Championships
March 29: Won Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 12: 6th Masters Tournament
May 3: 4th Quail Hollow Championship
May 10: 8th The Players Championship
June 7: Won The Memorial Tournament
June 21: 6th US Open
July 5: Won AT&T National
July 19: Missed the Cut, British Open
August 2: Won Buick Open
August 9: Won Bridgestone Invitational
August 16: 2nd PGA Championship
August 30: 2nd The Barclays
September 7: 11th Deutsche Bank Championship
September 13: Won BMW Championship
September 27: 2nd The Tour Championship

If you invested in Tiger immediately after the British Open, it’s likely you’d have made your best profit. But as a long-term investment, chances are the bookies will be a little too wise.

A better bet for mine – if you study the golf – is to find a three-ball option you like.

Chances are you’ll find someone with good form who might be paired with a better-known name. In such cases, the form player will usually win with inflated odds.

Either that, or try the old roullette tactic of doubling up each time Tiger loses.

Free horse racing tips and Oz Idol boost bankroll

Thanks to our guest tipster Grant Stockwell who joined aussiepunt on Friday, the bankroll has taken a healthy rise.

We also collected on Australian Idol last night, predicting Stan would outlast Sabrina - yes, I know, it was like tipping the league leader to knock over the favourite for the wooden spoon, but we'll take the $1.60 with sheepish glee.

Stocky, Brisbane's racing correspondent for Australian Associated Press newswire, gave us four tips - two best and two each way.

At aussiepunt, we suggested 10% of our bankroll on each of Grant's four tips. Things weren't looking real good when Grant's best bet was caught well behind the running of the race before hoop Craig Williams managed to make a late run down the short straight.

The horse didn't win but it's definitely one to watch, particularly if it can get an extra 200m or so on Friday night's 1200m run.

His next best was in the first at Randwick - still no joy.

But then things started to happen with his two each way chances both running first past the post. Little Surfer Girl in the third at Randwick paid a very nice $10.50 for the win and $3 for the place. That meant a return of $67.50 on a $10 investment.

McClintock in the fifth paid a little more modest $4.60 and $2.15, making way for a $33.75 return.

Add that to a $32 return from the Idol bet.

That meant our total $100 bankroll rose nicely to $173.25, up 73.25% in seven days.

Thanks Stocky, you are a champion!

Feel free to follow aussiepunt's ups and downs, whether or not you decide to follow our tips. We'll certainly tell it how it is warts and all. Our formula is simple: We'll put 20% of our total bankroll on a good thing, 10% on a good chance with some value, and 5% on a speculator.

Some punting sites charge for tips. We will never do that here.

* Be sure to punt for fun and don't outlay more than you can afford.