Friday, November 6, 2009

Emirates Stakes odds

Here are some novelty bets being offered by Sportsbet for the Emirates Stakes tomorrow at Flemington:

Will the Emirates Stakes winner have been previously placed at Flemington, or will it be a Headquarters virgin?

Virgins $1.62
Black Piranha, Sniper’s Bullet, King Mufhasa, Sir Slick, Triple Honour, So You Think, All American, Chinchilla Rose, Walking Or Dancing
Pros $2.30
Road to Rock, Vigor, Gold Salute, Red Lord, Eagle Falls, Rightfully Yours, Von Costa De Hero

How much weight will the Stakes winner have to bear?

Lightweights (53-54.5kgs) $1.58
Eagle Falls, Triple Honour, Rightfully Yours, So You Think, All American, Chinchilla Rose, Von Costa De Hero, Walking Or Dancing
Heavyweights (55kg+) $2.40
Black Piranha, Road To Rock, Sniper’s Bullet, Vigor, Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Red Lord, Sir Slick

See if you can pick the overall winning strike rate of the Stakes winner below:

Guns (win rate 41%+) $2.30
King Mufhasa, Eagle Falls, So You Think
Determined (win rate 35-40%) $3.20
Vigor, Gold Salute, Rightfully Yours
Cruisers (win rate 19-34%) $6.75
Sniper’s Bullet, Sir Slick, Triple Honour, Walking Or Dancing
Slackers (win rate 18% or less) $4.40
Black Piranha, Road To Rock, Red Lord, All American, Chinchilla Rose, Von Costa De Hero

From which class will the Stakes winner hail?

Filthy Rich ($1.5M+) $2.15
Black Piranha, Sir Slick, Triple Honour, So You Think
Posh ($801K - $1.49M) $5.25
Sniper’s Bullet, Vigor, King Mufhasa, Von Costa De Hero
Middle Class ($570K - $800K) $11.00
Road To Rock, Red Lord, All American, Chinchilla Rose
Paupers (under $570K) $2.75
Gold Salute, Eagle Falls, Rightfully Yours, Walking Or Dancing

Put your astrological mind into gear and pick the Stakes winner with the Zodiac bet:

Leo/Sagittarius $5.75
Black Piranha, Triple Honour, Chinchilla Rose, Road To Rock
Libra $3.85
Sniper’s Bullet, Sir Slick, Rightfully Yours, Von Costa De Hero, Walking Or Dancing
Virgo $2.75
Vigor, Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Red Lord, Eagle Falls, All American
Scorpio $3.05
So You Think

In each of the Alpha-Bet markets below, punters can select the group from which the Stakes winning horse will come from.

Group A $5.50
All American, Black Piranha, Chinchilla Rose, Eagle Falls
Group B $3.80
Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Red Lord, Rightfully Yours
Group C $2.20
Road To Rock, Sir Slick, Sniper’s Bullet, So You Think
Group D $4.60
Triple Honour, Vigor, Von Costa De Hero, Walking Or Dancing

Jockey's surnames

Group A $1.92
Black Piranha, So You Think, All American, Walking Or Dancing
Group B $3.50
Vigor, Eagle Falls, Rightfully Yours, Von Costa De Hero
Group C $5.25
Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Sir Slick, Triple Honour
Group D $8.00
Road To Rock, Sniper’s Bullet, Red Lord, Chinchilla Rose

Maribyrnong Plate late mail

Sportingbet Australia punters are hoping that David Hayes can gain some consolation for a miserable Spring Carnival with Ebony Rock in Saturday’s Maribyrnong Plate.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Fastnet Rock colt had been backed in from $16.00 to $7.50.

“Punters snapped up the $16.00 as soon as we posted a market and there’s still solid support at the $7.50,” said Sullivan.

“The Hayes stable has pulled off plunges in this race before with the likes of Langoustine and Nadeem and punters seem pretty confident that history could well repeat.”


2009 MARIBYRNONG PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Sweet Cheeks 3.00
Stirling Grove 3.30
Brightexpectations 4.00
She’s Got Gears 5.00
Ebony Rock 7.50
Marmaa 8.00
Sleepers 12.00
Tropic Thunder 14.00
Enzed Girl 16.00
Baribo 21.00
Excellence 21.00
General Truce 26.00
Forgiven 26.00
Like A Guest 41.00
Mr Chard 41.00
Indisputably 51.00
Onamissionfromgod 81.00

Free sports tips for November 7 and 8

Here's some thoughts about the weekend. Feel free to chime in.

Punters seem keen on Number 5, Gold Salute in the 5th at Flemington tomorrow. There will also be plenty of money floating around for the Patinack Classic, the last big race of the Spring season. And a fair chunk of it will be on the "people's horse", Apache Cat. Look for it to finish late.

Here's something different: A dog. We haven't touched the dish lickers, but Race 4 at Wentworth Park seems to have a special. It's No 2, Amity Bale.

I'm not as bullish as some on Casey Stoner to win the Moto GP. I think after Valentino Rossi made certain of the world championship crown, he'll now be keen to lash out on the Valencia track.

I think India will be a fair thing to beat Australia in the next one dayer to take the series to a decider. And Chelsea at better than even money seem like fair odds to beat Manchester United. Keep in mind though, that this will take on derby proportions, and they often end up in a draw.

Smart punter cleans up in Melbourne Cup

One Sportingbet Australia punter has plenty of reason for celebration after landing a remarkable Melbourne Cup trifecta.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter snared himself a profit of $37,258 by outlaying only $24.

“Usually people snare the Cup trifecta by boxing up several runners,” said Sullivan.

“But this fellow managed to isolate the three placegetters and took the trifecta four times.

“Congratulations to him, it’s a remarkable effort.”

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Faint Perfume the hot favourite for Crown Oaks

Faint Perfume has been backed to the exclusion of all other runners to continue Bart Cummings remarkable Spring and win tomorrow’s Crown Oaks.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Faint Perfume had shortened from $2.00 to $1.75 and it was impossible to write a bet on any other runner.

“All the money is for Faint Perfume including a bet of $150,000 at $1.85,” said Sullivan

“The class filly usually does win this race and the way she won on Saturday it’s hard to see anything jumping out of the pack.”

“We shortened her to $2.00 after she won the Wakeful but punters took that price immediately.”

Sullivan said despite the race looking like a one act affair he would still be taking on the favourite.

“We’ll be standing Faint Perfume for a fortune and we will be hoping the likes of Melito can cause a boilover,” Sullivan said.

2009 CROWN OAKS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Faint Perfume 1.75
Valdemoro 8.00
Silent Surround 8.50
Livia 11.00
Miss With Attitude 13.00
Melito 15.00
Well Rounded 19.00
Zapurb 26.00
Savsbelle 26.00
Princess Rage 51.00
Money Angel 61.00
Perfect Rithymn 101.00
Rhiannon’s Joy 101.00

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Novelty bets for Melbourne Cup

Some people like to hedge their bets by putting money on multiple horses for the Melbourne Cup. Some bookies are providing options which might make far more sense.

Here are some of the novelty bets being put up by Sportsbet. Some might of course have changed since this morning's scratching:

Can Bart Cummings continue his golden run and win his thirteenth Melbourne Cup?
Bart Cummings to train the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner $2.90

Pick the star sign of the Melbourne Cup winner, based on their foaling date.
Aquarius/Pisces/Aries/Taurus $5.30 Basaltico, Changingoftheguard, Crime Scene, Mourilyan, Munsef, Warringah
Leo/Virgo $4.10 Allez Wonder, Daffodil, Fiumicino, Kibbutz, Leica Ding, Shocking
Libra $2.65 Capecover, C’est La Gueere, Gallions Reach, Harris Tweed, Ista Kareem, Roman Emperor, Viewed
Scorpio/Sagittarius $3.30 Alcopop, Master O’Rielly, Newport, Spin Around, Zavite

Will the Melbourne Cup winner be posh, middle class or a pauper? Based on career earnings to date.
Posh ($1.1M+ career earnings) $2.60 Fiumicino, Ista Kareem, Master O’Rielly, Roman Emperor, Spin Around, Viewed
Middle Class ($500,000 - $1.099M) $4.80 Allez Wonder, C’est La Guerre, Crime Scene, Daffodil, Gallions Reach, Kibbutz, Munsef, Newport, Zavite
Paupers (less than $500,000) $2 Alcopop, Basaltico, Capecover, Changingoftheguard, Harris Tweed, Leica Ding, Mourilyan, Shocking, Warringah

Will the Melbourne Cup winner have placed at Headquarters before or will it be a Flemington virgin?
Virgins $1.67 Fiumicino, Basaltico, Mourilyan, Roman Emperor, Crime Scene, Munsef, Alcopop, Harris Tweed, Warringah, Gallions Reach, Spin Around, Daffodil, Changingoftheguard, Leica Ding
Pros $2.20 Viewed, C’est La Guerre, Master O’Reilly, Ista Kareem, Zavite, Kibbutz, Newport, Capecover, Shocking, Allez Wonder

Can you pick the age of the Melbourne Cup winner?
4YO $2.80
5YO $3.10
6YO $3.75
7YO+ $6.00

Can you pick where the Melbourne Cup winner will start from?
Barriers 1-8 $5.80
Barriers 9-16 $1.45
Barriers 17-24 $4.30

Got a thing for even or odd numbers? Cheer for 12 horses in the Melbourne Cup.
Odd number $1.60
Even number $2.35

In the Alpha-Bet market below, punters can select the group from which the winning horse will come from.
Group A $2.75 Alcopop, Allez Wonder, Basaltico, Capecover, C’est La Guree
Group B $9 Crime Scene, Daffodil, Fiumicino, Gallions Reach, Harris Tweed, Ista Kareem
Group C $5 Kibbutz, Leica Ding, Master O’Rielly, Munsef, Newport
Group D $2.25 Roman Emperor, Shocking, Spin Around, Viewed, Warringah, Zavite

Fancy one nag over another? Take your pick in the following Head to Head markets.

VIEWED VS ALCOPOP
Viewed $1.90
Alcopop $1.90

CRIME SCENE VS BASALTICO
Crime Scene $2.70
Basaltico $1.45

VIEWED VS ROMAN EMPEROR
Viewed $1.50
Roman Emperor $2.55

Alcopop into Melbourne Cup favouritism

Straight from the bookies, this latest release came five minutes ago:

Alcopop has been backed into $5.00 outright favourite at Sportingbet Australia after some huge wagers were placed on the fairytale story of this year’s Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Alcopop had been backed into $5.00 while last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, had drifted out to $5.50.

“Alcopop has been the only one they have wanted in the past 24 hours and we have taken bets of $120,000 and $35,000 on him,” Sullivan said.

“The money has dried up a little for Viewed but I am sure the Bart Cummings factor will see that change before jump time.

“Alcopop is clearly our worst result at the moment while AJC Oaks winner Daffodil is also nasty after some big bets including one of $300,000 to $20,000 were placed on her.”


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Alcopop 5.00
Viewed 5.50
Roman Emperor 8,50
Shocking 10.00
Master O’Reilly 12.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 21.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 31.00
Warringah 31.00
C’est La Guerre 31.00
Newport 41.00
Crime Scene 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 71.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 81.00
Zavite 81.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 126.00
Spin Around 201.00
Gallion’s Reach 251.00

Monday, November 2, 2009

Read tips Roman Emperor in Melbourne Cup

This year's Melbourne Cup shapes as one of the most memorable in years if the buildup is anything to go by, says IASbet's Mark Read.

"At the top of the market there's the people's hero from the bush in Alcopop ($5) and the returning champ from the people's trainer Bart Cummings in Viewed ($5)," he said.

"Shocking ($10) put in a most eye-catching run in the Lexus on Derby Day, and has been very well backed since he snuck into the field. Mark Kavanagh's luck of late has been just that Shocking and hopefully this horse can erase some of the bad memories over the past few weeks."

"I think Roman Emperor ($9) represents great value in this year's Cup. His last run was a solid second to Viewed in the Caulfield Cup, who had the sort of run that jockeys and punters dream of.

"He's an AJC Derby winner, is bred to get the trip, and has the man of the moment in his corner.

"Looking to the other races on the day for winners, Ortensia ($2.10) looks almost unbeatable in the Herald Sun Stakes over 1400m. Back to her own sex, Williams should give her the gun run and she should be too strong for these."

"Another shortie is Mark Kavanagh's Defintely Ready ($1.40) in the Schweppes Tonic 1000. His three career runs have all been dominant wins and he is simply in another class to his rivals.

Because of the short quotes on offer, perhaps have the Ortensia/Definitely Ready running double and then use that money to bet later on the Cup."

$35K bet for Alcopop in Melbourne Cup

The big punters are warming to fairytale horse Alcopop for the Melbourne Cup with some huge bets arriving for the gelding at Sportingbet Australia.

Alcopop is $5.50 second favourite behind Viewed at $5.00 but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some big bets are seeing him challenge for favouritism.

“We took a bet of $35,000 at $5.50 this morning so that punter stands to collect nearly $200,000 and he has clearly been the best backed since the barrier draw,” Sullivan said.

“I always expected the Bart Cummings factor would ensure Viewed ran favourite but the money we are seeing come for Alcopop could well change that.

“Shocking’s win on Saturday really stamped his form and punters could still make him one of the most unlikely Cup favourites ever.”

Australian Idol fiasco

Here's the verdict from one bookmaker after last night's Australian Idol debacle which saw Toby Moulton withdraw.

I'd be dirty if my money was with James Johnston to be eliminated. After all, that's the way the vote went.

Regardless, here's the verdict:

ELIMINATION BETS REFUNDED AS TOBY WITHDRAWS

Sportingbet Australia has refunded all of Sunday’s Australian Idol elimination bets following the shock withdrawal of Adelaide schoolteacher Toby Moulton.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said refunding the money was the right thing to do.

“It’s not the punters fault that one contestant decided to withdraw from the competition,” said Sullivan.

“The only fair thing to do was cancel all bets.”

Stan Walker is a $2 favourite to win Australian Idol while James Johnston is the $1.75 favourite to be eliminated next week.

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.00
Hayley Warner 2.50
Nathan Brake 6.50
James Johnston 8.00

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 8 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
James Johnston 1.75
Nathan Brake 2.25
Hayley Warner 11.00
Stan Walker 14.00

Latest Melbourne Cup betting action

At least one punter is confident Daffodil can improve for the Melbourne Cup. They've unloaded $20K on the result. Below is the Sportingbet release:

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON DAFFODIL

Big money has arrived for AJC Oaks winner Daffodil to win the Melbourne Cup with one massive bet struck at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Daffodil shortened from $18 to $14 since the barrier draw on Saturday night as punters warmed to the mare.

“We took a bet of $300,000 to $20,000 on Daffodil along with a number of other good bets on the way in,” Sullivan said.

“Her win in the Oaks showed she is up to this class and her run in the Caulfield Cup suggests the 3200m will suit.

“She is certainly one of the top chances just below favourites Viewed and Alcopop.”

Viewed remains favourite at Sportingbet at $5.00 ahead of Alcopop at $5.50 and Roman Emperor at $9.00.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Viewed 5.00
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Master O’Reilly 13.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Warringah 26.00
C’est La Guerre 26.00
Newport 35.00
Munsef 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
Fiumicino 61.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 71.00
Zavite 71.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 101.00
Gallion’s Reach 201.00
Spin Around 201.00

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Not a great weekend

As we always say, we'll tell it warts at all at Aussiepunt, and Derby Day wasn't that great for us.

We backed Rockferry to win the Victoria Derby which wasn't a terrific choice. But we've lost 7% of our bankroll, and it's time to move on - get back on the horse, as they say.

Tuesday is the biggest race day on the calendar and we'll be spending a portion of tomorrow trying to find some winners for everybody.

We'll give you all the news from corporate bookmakers to see where the money's going for the Melbourne Cup. Shocking is no doubt firming after a good run at the weekend. Expect Viewed to start favourite over Alcopop. Value will be with Master O'Reilly and Mourilyan.

But rest assured, we won't be forgetting the other races on the card.