It's Friday again, and although I'm a bit late in the day, we've gotten a hold of some free tips from TAB sportsbet in New South Wales.
The racing tips usually go fairly well and despite a bad week last week, we've scanned over the latest offering and figure they're okay.
The soccer tips are usually only for Australian soccer and the bloke tips more draws than I've ever seen. I saw a theory on a UK betting site which insisted betting all up combinations on the draw in every game was a profitable exercise. Perhaps that's the same theory this tipster works on.
Regardless, for international readers who are following the Friday guest tips, most Australian agencies will take bets on these tips.
They come from racing follower Andrew Bensley:
The first kicks off at the Harness Racing tonight. All races are quoted in Sydney time:
Harness
Friday 22nd January
Harold Park Race 5 - 9:00pm
No.3 - CLONTARF LADY
Gallops
Saturday 23rd January
Rosehill Race 5 - 3:50pm
No.9 - CHANCE BYE
Greyhounds
Saturday 23rd January
Wentworth Park Race 1 - 7:27pm
No.7 - WINSOME JOE
Our balance remains at $100 so we'll whack 10% of the stack on each race ... no half measures. All will be to come first past the post.
Good luck!
Friday, January 22, 2010
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Horse racing: Black Caviar odds
I personally don't understand why you'd take the novelty odds when you can all up on two races for the same return. Trainers are always keen to squeeze "one more" race out of a champion horse ... which just decreases your chances of a novelty 7-1 return.
It's a nice option, but our advice: Feel free to get on Black Caviar early, but ignore the novelty bet.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
The wraps on boom filly Black Caviar have been that big that Sportingbet Australia have posted her as a $7.00 chance to go through her entire preparation unbeaten.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the reports of Black Caviar’s work going into Friday night’s Australia Stakes had seen punters wanting to get on her in every way possible.
“She is $1.40 for the Australia Stakes which may well be overs, if the early money is anything to go by, as punters are knocking down the door to get on her,” Sullivan said.
“There has been good money for her in the Newmarket as well with her price shortening for $6.00 to $5.50 in the past 24 hours.
“We have her $7.50 to go through the preparation undefeated and I think punters will come for that as it is likely to be only the three starts in the Australia Stakes and William Reid, where she will be very short, and then the Newmarket.”
“If she dominates those two races like everyone is expecting, then she is going to be pretty short in the Newmarket and the $7.50 will look very good all of a sudden.”
Here De Angels is on the second line of betting at Sportingbet for the Australia Stakes at $3.00 with the early scratching of Heart of Dreams meaning Royal Ida is third favourite at $15.00.
“At this stage we haven’t seen any money for the other contenders and I think Black Caviar can probably only get beaten if she muddles the start and finds trouble,” Sullivan said.
WILL BLACK CAVIAR WIN EVERY START THIS PREPARATION?
Sportingbet Australia Market
YES, Black Caviar Wins Every Start This Preparation 7.00
NO, Black Caviar Does Not Win Every Start This Prep 1.11
AUSTRALIA STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Black Caviar 1.40
Here De Angels 3.00
Royal Ida 15.00
La Rocket 41.00
Ferocia 201.00
It's a nice option, but our advice: Feel free to get on Black Caviar early, but ignore the novelty bet.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
The wraps on boom filly Black Caviar have been that big that Sportingbet Australia have posted her as a $7.00 chance to go through her entire preparation unbeaten.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the reports of Black Caviar’s work going into Friday night’s Australia Stakes had seen punters wanting to get on her in every way possible.
“She is $1.40 for the Australia Stakes which may well be overs, if the early money is anything to go by, as punters are knocking down the door to get on her,” Sullivan said.
“There has been good money for her in the Newmarket as well with her price shortening for $6.00 to $5.50 in the past 24 hours.
“We have her $7.50 to go through the preparation undefeated and I think punters will come for that as it is likely to be only the three starts in the Australia Stakes and William Reid, where she will be very short, and then the Newmarket.”
“If she dominates those two races like everyone is expecting, then she is going to be pretty short in the Newmarket and the $7.50 will look very good all of a sudden.”
Here De Angels is on the second line of betting at Sportingbet for the Australia Stakes at $3.00 with the early scratching of Heart of Dreams meaning Royal Ida is third favourite at $15.00.
“At this stage we haven’t seen any money for the other contenders and I think Black Caviar can probably only get beaten if she muddles the start and finds trouble,” Sullivan said.
WILL BLACK CAVIAR WIN EVERY START THIS PREPARATION?
Sportingbet Australia Market
YES, Black Caviar Wins Every Start This Preparation 7.00
NO, Black Caviar Does Not Win Every Start This Prep 1.11
AUSTRALIA STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Black Caviar 1.40
Here De Angels 3.00
Royal Ida 15.00
La Rocket 41.00
Ferocia 201.00
Australian Open tennis tips Thursday
Well, we almost got it right with a huge upset in the tennis last night, tipping that Bernard Tomic would be a real show. He lasted the five sets before going down to the far more experienced Marin Cilic.
Our bet of the day, however, did get up ... just.
Forent Serra overcame Jarkko Nieminen in another five setter.
Today's tip of the day is for Tipsarevic to overcome veteran Tommy Haas. Tipper, as I like to call him, is at $2.15 or thereabouts which is a great return.
Our bet of the day, however, did get up ... just.
Forent Serra overcame Jarkko Nieminen in another five setter.
Today's tip of the day is for Tipsarevic to overcome veteran Tommy Haas. Tipper, as I like to call him, is at $2.15 or thereabouts which is a great return.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Australian Open tips
One of our outsider tips to win the Australian Open was upset in the first round - Robin Soderling. He seems to do well against the better players but has a mind explosion against lower ranked opponents. We'll have to live and learn from that experience.
But two others, Russians Davydenko and Dementieva, are still there. Should one of those win their respective tournaments, we've done quite well.
The following press release was from the weekend, which means it's a little outdated. It does, however, show that there's been plenty of money floating around. It also shows for whom.
For today's matches, there's not a lot of value around. But Bernard Tomic is at $6.70 to beat Marin Cilic. Ignore the rankings. Tomic is at 289 in the world, while Cilic is 14th. But Tomic has had good wins in the last month, including the scalps of Novak Djokovic and Radek Stepanek in warm up tournaments. He's not without a chance, particularly with the home crowd behind him.
In other games, Viktor Troicki is a player rising in the rankings and comes up against Florian Mayer who comes off the back of a 2 sets to love comeback win in the first round. Troicki is at $1.47 and should win, regardless of how pumped Mayer is.
Bet of the day for mine is Florent Serra to beat Jarkko Nieminen at $1.68. It's better than bank interest, that one! Serra has a 4-1 record against Nieminen who seems to have struggled to get past the first round of most tournaments of late, accounting for his falling world ranking.
TENNIS: BAGHDATIS BACKED FROM $151 TO $51
Marcos Baghdatis has been heavily backed to enjoy another good run at this year’s Australian Open following his win in Sydney.
Baghdatis, who opens his campaign on Tuesday against Paolo Lorenzi, has shortened from $151 last week to $51 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Cypriot was very popular with punters in Sydney last week and the money had also arrived for a shock Australian Open win.
“Baghdatis was well backed against Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters in Sydney and punters rallied behind him in his semi final and final win as well,” Sullivan said.
“We did bet as much as $331 when markets were posted a couple of months ago but the real interest has come since he showed he was in top form in Sydney.”
“We took one bet of $66,000 to $1000 and he has been as popular as any other player.”
Sullivan said all the punter interest had been away from pre tournament favourites Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.
“Punters are certainly looking for value with many thinking the big three are still some way off top form,” he said.
“There has been good money for Novak Djokovic who has shortened from $9.00 to $6.50 and for US Open winner Juan Martin Del Potro.
“Of the roughies, there has been good money for Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic and Robin Soderling.”
But two others, Russians Davydenko and Dementieva, are still there. Should one of those win their respective tournaments, we've done quite well.
The following press release was from the weekend, which means it's a little outdated. It does, however, show that there's been plenty of money floating around. It also shows for whom.
For today's matches, there's not a lot of value around. But Bernard Tomic is at $6.70 to beat Marin Cilic. Ignore the rankings. Tomic is at 289 in the world, while Cilic is 14th. But Tomic has had good wins in the last month, including the scalps of Novak Djokovic and Radek Stepanek in warm up tournaments. He's not without a chance, particularly with the home crowd behind him.
In other games, Viktor Troicki is a player rising in the rankings and comes up against Florian Mayer who comes off the back of a 2 sets to love comeback win in the first round. Troicki is at $1.47 and should win, regardless of how pumped Mayer is.
Bet of the day for mine is Florent Serra to beat Jarkko Nieminen at $1.68. It's better than bank interest, that one! Serra has a 4-1 record against Nieminen who seems to have struggled to get past the first round of most tournaments of late, accounting for his falling world ranking.
TENNIS: BAGHDATIS BACKED FROM $151 TO $51
Marcos Baghdatis has been heavily backed to enjoy another good run at this year’s Australian Open following his win in Sydney.
Baghdatis, who opens his campaign on Tuesday against Paolo Lorenzi, has shortened from $151 last week to $51 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Cypriot was very popular with punters in Sydney last week and the money had also arrived for a shock Australian Open win.
“Baghdatis was well backed against Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters in Sydney and punters rallied behind him in his semi final and final win as well,” Sullivan said.
“We did bet as much as $331 when markets were posted a couple of months ago but the real interest has come since he showed he was in top form in Sydney.”
“We took one bet of $66,000 to $1000 and he has been as popular as any other player.”
Sullivan said all the punter interest had been away from pre tournament favourites Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.
“Punters are certainly looking for value with many thinking the big three are still some way off top form,” he said.
“There has been good money for Novak Djokovic who has shortened from $9.00 to $6.50 and for US Open winner Juan Martin Del Potro.
“Of the roughies, there has been good money for Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic and Robin Soderling.”
Gianfranco Zola to stay at West Ham
Here's some latest markets in the English Premier League. The 40% return for Zola could be worth taking, but as regular followers of this blog will know, we rarely advise that people take any odds under $1.50.
THE STAR OF DAVIDS?
Victor Chandler make it a 2/5 shot that Gianfranco Zola is still the West Ham manager on June 1st after David Sullivan and David Gold gave the Italian their backing as they took over the East End club today. The firm go 7/4 that he gets the bullet.
“It’s a well worn joke that when the chairman gives a manager his backing it means the exact opposite, but we feel that the two David’s are sincere in their wish to see Zola succeed at Upton Park.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“That said Zola still has to do the business on the park, and if the Hammers don’t start climbing the table soon then Gold and Sullivan might have no option but to change things.”
The firm also make it a 5/6 shot that the Hammers get over 20.5 Premier League points from now until the end of the season, and the same price that they don’t manage that points tally.
Gianfranco Zola to be West Ham manager on June 1st 2010
Yes 2/5
No 7/4
West Ham Points with Sullivan & Gold in charge (2009/2010 season)
Under 20.5 points 5/6
Over 20.5 points 5/6
THE STAR OF DAVIDS?
Victor Chandler make it a 2/5 shot that Gianfranco Zola is still the West Ham manager on June 1st after David Sullivan and David Gold gave the Italian their backing as they took over the East End club today. The firm go 7/4 that he gets the bullet.
“It’s a well worn joke that when the chairman gives a manager his backing it means the exact opposite, but we feel that the two David’s are sincere in their wish to see Zola succeed at Upton Park.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“That said Zola still has to do the business on the park, and if the Hammers don’t start climbing the table soon then Gold and Sullivan might have no option but to change things.”
The firm also make it a 5/6 shot that the Hammers get over 20.5 Premier League points from now until the end of the season, and the same price that they don’t manage that points tally.
Gianfranco Zola to be West Ham manager on June 1st 2010
Yes 2/5
No 7/4
West Ham Points with Sullivan & Gold in charge (2009/2010 season)
Under 20.5 points 5/6
Over 20.5 points 5/6
Avatar favourite to win Oscar
Sorry folks, I've been away for the last week, so there's a stack of media statements from bookies which I'm about to post on the site. After watching the Golden Globes on Monday, it seems there is some credence to this one.
It looks to be one of the most open contests for "best film" at this year's Academy Awards we've had for a long while. This means there could be some value.
It will take some courage, however, to run with an outsider. The best value I can see is "Precious" at 17-1 given that it seems to have all the politically correct attributes which the academy likes, but "Up in the air" could be a strong showing.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
WE BET AVATAR DOESN'T WIN
Sportingbet Australia bookmakers are prepared to risk boom movie Avatar repeating it’s Golden Globe success at March’s Academy Awards and are betting over the odds at $1.80.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Avatar has history against it winning an Oscar.
“Avatar is a serious contender after taking out its category at the Golden Globes,” said Sullivan.
“But to put things into perspective The Hangover also won its category and would be 500/1 to win a Best Picture Oscar.
“ Add to that the fact that no Science Fiction film, including ET, has ever taken out an Oscar for Best Picture and I just don’t think Avatar should be odds on.”
Sullivan rates second favourite The Hurt Locker ($2.75) a massive chance and also gives Up In The Air ($3.50) and roughie Inglorious Basterds ($13.00) solid hopes of upsetting the favourite.
ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Avatar 1.80
The Hurt Locker 2.75
Up In The Air 3.50
Inglorious Basterds 13.00
A Serious Man 13.00
Precious 17.00
Nine 21.00
An Education 21.00
Julie & Julia 31.00
The White Ribbon 31.00
Invictus 34.00
Up 41.00
The Road 41.00
The Last Station 41.00
The Lovely Bones 51.00
The Messenger 51.00
Others 67.00 Plus
It looks to be one of the most open contests for "best film" at this year's Academy Awards we've had for a long while. This means there could be some value.
It will take some courage, however, to run with an outsider. The best value I can see is "Precious" at 17-1 given that it seems to have all the politically correct attributes which the academy likes, but "Up in the air" could be a strong showing.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
WE BET AVATAR DOESN'T WIN
Sportingbet Australia bookmakers are prepared to risk boom movie Avatar repeating it’s Golden Globe success at March’s Academy Awards and are betting over the odds at $1.80.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Avatar has history against it winning an Oscar.
“Avatar is a serious contender after taking out its category at the Golden Globes,” said Sullivan.
“But to put things into perspective The Hangover also won its category and would be 500/1 to win a Best Picture Oscar.
“ Add to that the fact that no Science Fiction film, including ET, has ever taken out an Oscar for Best Picture and I just don’t think Avatar should be odds on.”
Sullivan rates second favourite The Hurt Locker ($2.75) a massive chance and also gives Up In The Air ($3.50) and roughie Inglorious Basterds ($13.00) solid hopes of upsetting the favourite.
ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Avatar 1.80
The Hurt Locker 2.75
Up In The Air 3.50
Inglorious Basterds 13.00
A Serious Man 13.00
Precious 17.00
Nine 21.00
An Education 21.00
Julie & Julia 31.00
The White Ribbon 31.00
Invictus 34.00
Up 41.00
The Road 41.00
The Last Station 41.00
The Lovely Bones 51.00
The Messenger 51.00
Others 67.00 Plus
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