Friday, November 13, 2009

Bookies give up on Tiger Woods

I've never heard of bookies giving up before.

If there's a chance of them keeping their money, they'll usually have everything crossed - fingers, toes, whatever.

But the homepage of Centrebet reads thus:

Sportsbet has decided Tiger Woods is a moral and has paid out early regardless of whether he wins or loses. Applies to all outright wagers placed before 5:30pm Fri 13th.

Put it in the "strange, but true" category.

Thursday, November 12, 2009

Tiger Woods firms in the betting

Following Tiger Woods’ 6-under round of 66 in the first round of the Australian Masters, Sportsbet.com.au has framed a market on Tiger’s total score for the tournament.

“From Tiger’s display today, we think around the low minus 20’s is about right,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

Tiger’s total score in the 2009 Australian Masters
-15 or worse $11.00
-16 to -18 $4.25
-19 to -21 $3.75
-22 to -24 $3.00
-25 or better $4.00

In overall betting, Tiger has been $2.60 into $1.70 today following his blistering first round.

“Tiger has been well supported since markets opened, and we took a $50,000 bet on Tiger at $1.70 today during his round,” said Lane.

“Tiger is obviously the standout, although we think there’s great value to be had elsewhere as the greens will firm up over the weekend and it will be tough for everyone.”

Other sportsbooks have Tiger as short as $1.55 to win the tournament.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Leading sire odds for 2009/10

There's a fair amount of the season to go, but the front runner looks a good thing to me. Feel free to differ:

Sportingbet Australia has installed boom sire Encosta De Lago as a $2.35 favourite to be leading sire by prizemoney for season 2009/10.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Encosta De Lago deserved his place at the head of the market despite presently trailing Street Cry by almost $2 Million.

“Encosta De Lago’s record speaks for itself, having topped the table for the last two seasons,” said Sullivan.

“Street Cry’s earnings have been inflated by Shocking’s Melbourne Cup victory and we think the incumbent champ can run him down.”

Street Cry is rated a $2.75 chance to hang on to his lead while, prolific sire of 2 year olds, More Than Ready looking good value at $10.00 with races such as the Golden Slipper still to come.

2009/10 LEADING SIRE BY PRIZEMONEY
Encosta De Lago 2.35
Street Cry 2.75
Redoutes Choice 5.50
Any Other Individual Sire 6.00
More Than Ready (usa) 10.00
Scenic 15.00
Lonhro 26.00

$100K bet on Tiger Woods

Australian punters are warming to Tiger Woods with a bet of $100,000 at $2.60 struck at Sportingbet Australia.

Woods had been a little easy with bookmakers but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had tumbled into him in the past 24 hours.

“He has been $2.75 to $2.50 with us in the past 24 hours as punters have really got behind as they have seen him hitting the course for practice,” Sullivan said.

“We took one bet to take out over $250,000 and there have been plenty of other bets in the $5000 to $20,000 range placed on him as well.

“Woods is always the best golfer in the field, it is just whether he hits it well and handles the course that is the risk.

“We are happy to keep laying him though as I am not so sure Kingston Heath will suit him.”

Sullivan also reported strong support for some of the Aussie contenders.

“Stuart Appleby has been the best backed of the locals, with bets including one of $100,000 to $2500, while there has also been good money for defending champ Rod Pampling and rising stars Michael Sim and Marc Leishman,” Sullivan said.

Sportsbet.com.au has released a range of markets on the 2009 Australian Masters. Also included below are a variety of novelty markets around hot favourite Tiger Woods.

“Tiger and Geoff Ogilvy have been by far the best backed to win the Masters,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“The 20 largest bets we’ve taken have all been on Woods, with a few decent bets on Ogilvy thrown in.

“Although, there have been some doubters who have jumped on the $11 offered on Tiger to miss the cut.

“Punters who want to take on Tiger but can’t narrow his slayer down can back everyone else in the field at $1.48. This option has been quite popular, with one punter laying down $20,000 on the rest of the field,” said Lane.

TIGER WOODS’ WINNING MARGIN
Payout on Tiger’s winning margin at the completion of the tournament.
1 stroke exactly $9.00
2 strokes exactly $13.00
3 strokes exactly $15.00
4 strokes exactly $17.00
5 strokes or more $5.50
Won in playoff $13.00
Tiger will not win $1.48

FRONT-RUNNING TIGER
Payout on Tiger to lead or have a share of the lead after every round in the Australian Masters.
Tiger to lead after every round $9.00
Tiger to give someone else a go at the top $1.05

TWO OR FOUR DAYS OF TIGER AT THE HEATH?
Tiger to miss the cut $11
Tiger to make the cut $1.02
*Other players quoted to make or miss the cut – see Sportsbet.com.au for details.

HOLE IN ONE BET
Yes, there will be a hole in one scored during the Masters $2.70
No, there will not be a hole in one scored during the Masters $1.45

HEAD TO HEAD MARKETS
In all head to head markets, playoffs are excluded unless otherwise stated. Dead heat rules apply. Paid out on official finishing order.

ADAM SCOTT VS MICHAEL SIM
Adam Scott $1.90
Michael Sim $1.90

TIGER WOODS VS GEOFF OGILVY
Tiger Woods $1.38
Geoff Ogilvy $3.05

JOHN SENDEN VS AARON BADDELEY
John Senden $1.87
Aaron Baddeley $1.93

STUART APPLEBY VS RICHARD GREEN
Stuart Appleby $1.90
Richard Green $1.90

MATHEW GOGGIN VS GREG CHALMERS
Mathew Goggin $1.85
Greg Chalmers $1.95

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Kevin Sheedy a long term prospect in West Sydney

I've heard of futures betting, but this is a very long-term investment with very little information on players:

Kevin Sheedy has the job ahead of him at West Sydney according to bookmakers, with Sportingbet Australia posting a market that has Sheedy’s worst year at Essendon favourite to better his opening year at West Sydney.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Sheedy looked the right man for the job, starting a side from nothing was a monumental task and a finals berth in their opening year was a $9.00 outsider.

“Sheedy proved how good a coach he was in 27 years at Essendon but we have his worst year there in 2006 as $1.80 favourite to be better than his first year in West Sydney,” Sullivan said.

“The Bombers won three and drew one in 06 and anything better than that for West Sydney would be a success I would think.

“No matter how good a job he does, you wouldn’t think they are any hope of making the finals in their debut season and we have them $1.05 to be spending September on the sidelines.”

SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 VS SHEEDY’S ESSENDON 2006
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS 2012 To Do Better Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 2.00
GWS 2012 To Do Worse Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 1.80

SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 TO MAKE FINALS
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS To Make 2012 Finals 9.00
GWS To Miss 2012 Finals 1.05

Hong Kong International Sprint

At risk of becoming a Sportingbet conduit, here's their take on the Hong Kong Sprint:

All Silent, Apache Cat and Scenic Blast look like sharing the stage in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong International Sprint on December 13 and Sportingbet Australia punters have the opportunity to pick which of the local stars will perform the best with the bookmaker offering exclusive head to head and trio markets.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan believes All Silent is the pick of the Australians but Apache Cat and Scenic Blast are close behind.

“We mark All Silent at $2.50 in a trio with the other two heavyweights, having beaten Apache Cat in last Saturday’s Group One Patinack Farm Classic.

“He’s one of Australia’s form horses and has won his last two starts over 1200m in Group races,” said Sullivan.

“However, Apache Cat is more than capable of avenging Saturday’s loss having finished third in the same race at Sha Tin last year.

“The Cat is currently $2.75 in the market but that may shorten should he get his usual amount of punter support.

“He won impressively two starts ago in the Group Two Schweppes Stakes over 1200m and his Hong Kong experience can only help,” said Sullivan.

Australian Horse Of The Year, Scenic Blast, also has every right to perform well as he will earn a US $1 million bonus should he win the HK$12m Sprint.

The Dan Morton trained star has already won two Global Sprint Challenge legs in the Lightning Stakes and the King's Stand Stakes and is more than capable of winning another Group One Sprint.

“Scenic Blast opens the trio as a $2.90 outsider but that price can change quickly as he is always well supported at Sportingbet.

“Punters nailed us when he took out the King’s Stand Stakes but we’re hoping the horse is kinder to us in Hong Kong with Australian money shared between the three champions,” said Sullivan.


HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT TRIO
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
All Silent 2.50
Apache Cat 2.75
Scenic Blast 2.90

HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT HEAD TO HEAD
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
All Silent 1.80
Apache Cat 2.00

HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT HEAD TO HEAD
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
All Silent 1.75
Scenic Blast 2.05

HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT HEAD TO HEAD
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
Apache Cat 1.85
Scenic Blast 1.95

VRMA Personality of the year

Statement from Sportingbet:

Bart Cumming has been installed as $1.30 favourite to win the VRMA Personality of the year following another phenomenal Spring for the master trainer.

Cummings is clear favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Melbourne Cup winning trainer Mark Kavanagh and Peter Moody.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Cummings had to be favourite after he trained the winner of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Oaks amongst others and provided punters with a few laughs.

“It was a vintage year for Cummings where he showed he is still the best trainer of stayers in the country and produced some classical one liners to show he has lost none of his wit at 82 years of age,” Sullivan said.

“For any trainer to have four Group 1 winners in the Spring is a sensational effort but when you look at them individually it gets even more impressive.

“He brought a three year old through to win a Cox Plate in just his fifth start and getting last year’s Melbourne Cup winner up to win the Caulfield Cup with top weight just shows how good a trainer he really is.”

Sullivan said last year’s winner, Kavanagh, could not be ruled out after his Spring contained some tremendous highs and lows.

“Mark Kavanagh really saw both sides of racing during the Carnival losing champion Maldivian and Derby favourite Shamoline Warrior to injury and the experiencing the ultimate high of training the Melbourne Cup winner,” Sullivan said.

“The way he handled himself during both the highs and the lows will surely see him attract a lot of support.”

VRMA PERSONALITY OF THE YEAR
Bart Cummings 1.30
Mark Kavanagh 3.20
Peter Moody 7.00
Dan Morton 21.00
Robbie Laing 51.00

Australian Idol odds

For mine, Toby has really made a farce of the entire series of Australian Idol. Here's the latest betting news anyway:

Gold Coast singer Stan Walker is a long odds on favourite to win Australian Idol after outshining his competitors on Sunday evening.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Stan had firmed from $2.00 to $1.40 following the show.

“Stan out sang them tonight but that’s only part of the reason we’ve shortened his price,” said Sullivan.

“We’re writing twenty bets on him to one on any other contestant.”

Sullivan did have some advice for punters who wanted to unload early on Stan.

“There’s no doubt that Stan is the frontrunner,” Sullivan said.

“But whoever does the best job of the winners single wins Idol year after year and we don’t get to hear those until next week.”

Wingham’s James Johnston is a $1.40 favourite to be eliminated from the show next week.

WINNER
Stan Walker 1.40
Hayley Warner 3.00
James Johnston 11.00

ELIMINATION 15 NOVEMBER
James Johnston 1.40
Hayley Warner 2.80
Stan Walker 17.00

Tiger Woods in Australia

Here's the latest odds on the Australian Masters this weekend. Is Tiger really worth the investment?

Tiger Woods may be the best golfer in the world but not every punter rates him a certainty to win the Australian Masters with many taking shorts odds about the Tiger being tamed at Kingston Heath this weekend.

Sportingbet Australia is offering top odds of $2.60 about Woods but its CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were rushing to back the rest of the field at odds of $1.45.

“We have taken a lot of bets, including one of $20,000 at $1.45 , that someone other than Woods will be wearing the gold jacket come Sunday afternoon.

“It is a brave move taking $1.45 that the greatest golfer ever won’t defeat this field.

“However, he did blow up in the final round last week and there is a school of thought that the sand belt course won’t suit him.”

Punters are also backing that little known Australian golfer Anthony Painter 's 15 year-old course record of 64 will survive Tiger's attack on Kingston Heath.

“Tiger is a $3.75 chance to break Painter’s record or a $4.50 to equal the mark,” Sullivan said.

“ The Punters have lapped up the $2.00 about Painter’s mark proving too good for Tiger backing it in to $1.50.”


AUSTRALIAN MASTERS – TIGER VS FIELD
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods 2.60
The Field 1.45


AUSTRALIAN MASTERS – TIGER WOODS V ANTHONY PAINTER 1994 COURSE RECORD (64)
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods Hits Course Record 63 or Better During Tournament 3.75
Tiger Woods Equals Course Record 64 During Tournament 4.50
Tiger Woods Doesn’t Hit 64 Or Better During Tournament 1.50


AUSTRALIAN MASTERS – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods 2.60
Geoff Ogilvy 11.00
Adam Scott 17.00
Michael Sim 17.00
John Senden 21.00
Aaron Baddeley 26.00
Rod Pampling 26.00
Mathew Goggin 34.00
Nathan Green 34.00
Richard Green 34.00
Stuart Appleby 41.00
Marc Leishman 41.00
Alex Cejka 51.00
Greg Chalmers 51.00
Jason Dufner 51.00
James Nitties 51.00
Marcus Fraser 67.00
Cameron Percy 67.00
Others 81.00 Plus