This week's guest tipster made his mark in the Brisbane Bears midfield from 1987-1993.
For those who don't remember, Matthew Campbell averaged around 18 possessions per game and managed to sneak 28 goals in his 79-game career.
Sadly, the fledgling Bears only managed to win 16 of those games. I do recall trundling down to Carrara on the Gold Coast for Round 20 in 1991 to watch Peter Daicos bag 13 goals, but that's enough reminiscing.
Let's instead focus on Matt's game-high 37 possessions.
Ater a career of individual success amid team disappointments, he's since managed to back a winner career-wise by joining the Sportsbet team in business development.
He is also a sports broadcaster with Fox Sports and has been involved with sports broadcasting for 15 years since retiring from the AFL.
Today, he's been kind enough to share some tips for the weekend.
Tips:
Rugby league: Melbourne to cover the -4.5 start against Parramatta at $1.92.
Horse racing: Saturday, Sydney Race 7, No 9 Speed Gifted to win.
At aussiepunt, we're with you Matt. We'll whack 10% of our bankroll on each of your selections!
Friday, October 2, 2009
Rugby league grand final
"My heart says Parramatta, but my head says Melbourne."
It's a common phrase ringing out amid rugby league fans in Sydney. And while grand finals can by a good betting option given that both teams will be giving their all (and usually the best team does win), this one's tricky.
The question I can't answer is whether the hype will have an effect. Melbourne doesn't have the same passion and expectation as Parramatta. The fairytale aspect behind Parramatta's bid is extraordinary.
Will Hayne and co be able to perform on the big stage? They did last week against the Bulldogs, so you would think they'll be able to repeat the dose.
BUT ... Melbourne is a side full of big-game players. They have half the victorious Queensland State of Origin side, including Greg Inglis, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith.
I'm with the crowd, and the rule of thumb with punting is to always allow your head over-rule your heart.
Melbourne to win.
And if you're unsure, this week's guest tipster is former AFL player Matthew Campbell from Sportsbet. Let's see what he's got to say about the grand final later today!
It's a common phrase ringing out amid rugby league fans in Sydney. And while grand finals can by a good betting option given that both teams will be giving their all (and usually the best team does win), this one's tricky.
The question I can't answer is whether the hype will have an effect. Melbourne doesn't have the same passion and expectation as Parramatta. The fairytale aspect behind Parramatta's bid is extraordinary.
Will Hayne and co be able to perform on the big stage? They did last week against the Bulldogs, so you would think they'll be able to repeat the dose.
BUT ... Melbourne is a side full of big-game players. They have half the victorious Queensland State of Origin side, including Greg Inglis, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith.
I'm with the crowd, and the rule of thumb with punting is to always allow your head over-rule your heart.
Melbourne to win.
And if you're unsure, this week's guest tipster is former AFL player Matthew Campbell from Sportsbet. Let's see what he's got to say about the grand final later today!
Thursday, October 1, 2009
How will Fevola affect the markets?
It will be interesting to see how the trade of Brendon Fevola affects the long-term AFL betting markets. Just like the stock market, insider trading knowledge about next week's trading period would be handy.
St Kilda and Geelong, as traditionally happens after a grand final, will no doubt be sitting pretty as favourites to repeat the dose in 2010, both at $4.25.
But you can be sure that the team which secures big Fev will drop a couple of points. If it's the Western Bulldogs, as many presume, then they're $7 will probably come in to a similar line as the favourites.
If it's Collingwood, $14 will seem like strawberry jam to punters. Expect that to halve if the Pies can convince the bad boy to join the list of party animals in the black and white.
Sydney at $41 would also shorten, but their sights seem set on Josh Kennedy.
Others in the futures market are Adelaide ($9), Hawthorn ($10), Carlton ($15), Brisbane ($23), Essendon ($26), Port Adelaide ($41), West Coast ($41), Fremantle ($51), Richmond ($51), North Melbourne ($61) and Melbourne ($81).
St Kilda and Geelong, as traditionally happens after a grand final, will no doubt be sitting pretty as favourites to repeat the dose in 2010, both at $4.25.
But you can be sure that the team which secures big Fev will drop a couple of points. If it's the Western Bulldogs, as many presume, then they're $7 will probably come in to a similar line as the favourites.
If it's Collingwood, $14 will seem like strawberry jam to punters. Expect that to halve if the Pies can convince the bad boy to join the list of party animals in the black and white.
Sydney at $41 would also shorten, but their sights seem set on Josh Kennedy.
Others in the futures market are Adelaide ($9), Hawthorn ($10), Carlton ($15), Brisbane ($23), Essendon ($26), Port Adelaide ($41), West Coast ($41), Fremantle ($51), Richmond ($51), North Melbourne ($61) and Melbourne ($81).
Cricket thriller gives our bankroll a hit
At the start of this experiment, we said we'd share our wins, losses - warts and all.
And Australia's last-ball win in last night's ICC Champions Trophy clash with Pakistan was a bad result for our bankroll. We predicted the Pakistan team could upset the Australians (at $2.65) and it very nearly happened.
Granted, we treated the bet as a speculator, which meant we only lost 5% of our bankroll.
But like any finely-tuned elite athlete, we hate to lose and feel deeply cut that the performance indicators (a little term I learned hanging around business types) let us down.
We had the teams evenly matched with a slight edge to Pakistan in the bowling and all-rounder stakes. We also said Australia's depth in batting was the key, and that turned out to be the case as numbers 9 and 10 scrambled home with a bye on the last delivery.
At aussiepunt, we still think the Pakistan team is favoured to win the event and we might just have a stab at getting our money back with another speculator on that result.
Let's look at the odds today.
Being an Aussie, it's great to see our boys in the semi-finals, but as a wise punter once said: Always bet with your head, not with your heart.
Our $100 investment now sits at $149 with a $16 bet riding on Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper in Australian Idol at $1.85.
And Australia's last-ball win in last night's ICC Champions Trophy clash with Pakistan was a bad result for our bankroll. We predicted the Pakistan team could upset the Australians (at $2.65) and it very nearly happened.
Granted, we treated the bet as a speculator, which meant we only lost 5% of our bankroll.
But like any finely-tuned elite athlete, we hate to lose and feel deeply cut that the performance indicators (a little term I learned hanging around business types) let us down.
We had the teams evenly matched with a slight edge to Pakistan in the bowling and all-rounder stakes. We also said Australia's depth in batting was the key, and that turned out to be the case as numbers 9 and 10 scrambled home with a bye on the last delivery.
At aussiepunt, we still think the Pakistan team is favoured to win the event and we might just have a stab at getting our money back with another speculator on that result.
Let's look at the odds today.
Being an Aussie, it's great to see our boys in the semi-finals, but as a wise punter once said: Always bet with your head, not with your heart.
Our $100 investment now sits at $149 with a $16 bet riding on Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper in Australian Idol at $1.85.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Pakistan vs Australia ICC preview
The ICC Champions' Trophy game tonight looms as a cracker.
In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.
And it's difficult to split the teams.
Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.
Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.
Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.
Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.
Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.
Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.
Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.
In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.
And it's difficult to split the teams.
Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.
Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.
Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.
Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.
Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.
Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.
Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Final 9 Australian Idol form guide
Seemingly after much confusion, the Australian Idol market seems to be taking shape.
Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.
But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.
On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.
We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.
We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).
Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.
Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.
Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.
But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.
On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.
We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.
We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).
Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.
Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.
Is Tiger Woods a good golf bet?
Tiger Woods is undoubtedly one of the best golfers of all time. He is a credit to the sport, a fierce competitor, a noble sportsman, and a worthy champion.
But let’s open a can of worms. Is he really a good bet?
Let’s look at some of the statistics. In the next three tournaments he plays, Tiger will start at anywhere between $2.50 (Australian Masters) and $3.40 (US Masters).
That means at best, Tiger must win one in three tournaments for us to come out on top. At worst, he needs to win every second time he walks out.
While it’s a fair call to suggest he’s favourite each time he plays, it’s also fair to suggest it’s inhuman to finish first past the post each event.
Tiger has won 6 from 17 events this year. If we’d backed him in each one, we might be slightly ahead. We’d also be incredibly frustrated.
Here’s Tiger’s results:
March 3: 17th World Match Play.
March 15: 9th World Golf Championships
March 29: Won Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 12: 6th Masters Tournament
May 3: 4th Quail Hollow Championship
May 10: 8th The Players Championship
June 7: Won The Memorial Tournament
June 21: 6th US Open
July 5: Won AT&T National
July 19: Missed the Cut, British Open
August 2: Won Buick Open
August 9: Won Bridgestone Invitational
August 16: 2nd PGA Championship
August 30: 2nd The Barclays
September 7: 11th Deutsche Bank Championship
September 13: Won BMW Championship
September 27: 2nd The Tour Championship
If you invested in Tiger immediately after the British Open, it’s likely you’d have made your best profit. But as a long-term investment, chances are the bookies will be a little too wise.
A better bet for mine – if you study the golf – is to find a three-ball option you like.
Chances are you’ll find someone with good form who might be paired with a better-known name. In such cases, the form player will usually win with inflated odds.
Either that, or try the old roullette tactic of doubling up each time Tiger loses.
But let’s open a can of worms. Is he really a good bet?
Let’s look at some of the statistics. In the next three tournaments he plays, Tiger will start at anywhere between $2.50 (Australian Masters) and $3.40 (US Masters).
That means at best, Tiger must win one in three tournaments for us to come out on top. At worst, he needs to win every second time he walks out.
While it’s a fair call to suggest he’s favourite each time he plays, it’s also fair to suggest it’s inhuman to finish first past the post each event.
Tiger has won 6 from 17 events this year. If we’d backed him in each one, we might be slightly ahead. We’d also be incredibly frustrated.
Here’s Tiger’s results:
March 3: 17th World Match Play.
March 15: 9th World Golf Championships
March 29: Won Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 12: 6th Masters Tournament
May 3: 4th Quail Hollow Championship
May 10: 8th The Players Championship
June 7: Won The Memorial Tournament
June 21: 6th US Open
July 5: Won AT&T National
July 19: Missed the Cut, British Open
August 2: Won Buick Open
August 9: Won Bridgestone Invitational
August 16: 2nd PGA Championship
August 30: 2nd The Barclays
September 7: 11th Deutsche Bank Championship
September 13: Won BMW Championship
September 27: 2nd The Tour Championship
If you invested in Tiger immediately after the British Open, it’s likely you’d have made your best profit. But as a long-term investment, chances are the bookies will be a little too wise.
A better bet for mine – if you study the golf – is to find a three-ball option you like.
Chances are you’ll find someone with good form who might be paired with a better-known name. In such cases, the form player will usually win with inflated odds.
Either that, or try the old roullette tactic of doubling up each time Tiger loses.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Free horse racing tips and Oz Idol boost bankroll
Thanks to our guest tipster Grant Stockwell who joined aussiepunt on Friday, the bankroll has taken a healthy rise.
We also collected on Australian Idol last night, predicting Stan would outlast Sabrina - yes, I know, it was like tipping the league leader to knock over the favourite for the wooden spoon, but we'll take the $1.60 with sheepish glee.
Stocky, Brisbane's racing correspondent for Australian Associated Press newswire, gave us four tips - two best and two each way.
At aussiepunt, we suggested 10% of our bankroll on each of Grant's four tips. Things weren't looking real good when Grant's best bet was caught well behind the running of the race before hoop Craig Williams managed to make a late run down the short straight.
The horse didn't win but it's definitely one to watch, particularly if it can get an extra 200m or so on Friday night's 1200m run.
His next best was in the first at Randwick - still no joy.
But then things started to happen with his two each way chances both running first past the post. Little Surfer Girl in the third at Randwick paid a very nice $10.50 for the win and $3 for the place. That meant a return of $67.50 on a $10 investment.
McClintock in the fifth paid a little more modest $4.60 and $2.15, making way for a $33.75 return.
Add that to a $32 return from the Idol bet.
That meant our total $100 bankroll rose nicely to $173.25, up 73.25% in seven days.
Thanks Stocky, you are a champion!
Feel free to follow aussiepunt's ups and downs, whether or not you decide to follow our tips. We'll certainly tell it how it is warts and all. Our formula is simple: We'll put 20% of our total bankroll on a good thing, 10% on a good chance with some value, and 5% on a speculator.
Some punting sites charge for tips. We will never do that here.
* Be sure to punt for fun and don't outlay more than you can afford.
We also collected on Australian Idol last night, predicting Stan would outlast Sabrina - yes, I know, it was like tipping the league leader to knock over the favourite for the wooden spoon, but we'll take the $1.60 with sheepish glee.
Stocky, Brisbane's racing correspondent for Australian Associated Press newswire, gave us four tips - two best and two each way.
At aussiepunt, we suggested 10% of our bankroll on each of Grant's four tips. Things weren't looking real good when Grant's best bet was caught well behind the running of the race before hoop Craig Williams managed to make a late run down the short straight.
The horse didn't win but it's definitely one to watch, particularly if it can get an extra 200m or so on Friday night's 1200m run.
His next best was in the first at Randwick - still no joy.
But then things started to happen with his two each way chances both running first past the post. Little Surfer Girl in the third at Randwick paid a very nice $10.50 for the win and $3 for the place. That meant a return of $67.50 on a $10 investment.
McClintock in the fifth paid a little more modest $4.60 and $2.15, making way for a $33.75 return.
Add that to a $32 return from the Idol bet.
That meant our total $100 bankroll rose nicely to $173.25, up 73.25% in seven days.
Thanks Stocky, you are a champion!
Feel free to follow aussiepunt's ups and downs, whether or not you decide to follow our tips. We'll certainly tell it how it is warts and all. Our formula is simple: We'll put 20% of our total bankroll on a good thing, 10% on a good chance with some value, and 5% on a speculator.
Some punting sites charge for tips. We will never do that here.
* Be sure to punt for fun and don't outlay more than you can afford.
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