I wish I had some inside information, but this new market will be of interest to English football fans:
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Showing posts with label soccer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label soccer. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Why are England's World Cup soccer odds so short ?
I can't say I totally understand the logic behind the way the market has panned out for the World Cup in South Africa 2010.
England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.
But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.
And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.
England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.
Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.
Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus
England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.
But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.
And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.
England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.
Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.
Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus
Friday, December 4, 2009
Who will score the most goals in the Premier League?
This is the latest release from Victor Chandler in the UK. Tottenham has to be value?
Victor Chandler have opened a market on who’ll score the most goals in the Premier League this season.
At the moment Chelsea and Arsenal are neck and neck on 36 goals a piece, and the firm feel it’s going to be between these two.
“We are making Chelsea the slight favourites but it’s difficult to call.” said VC Spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“Losing Van Persie is a big blow for Arsenal, but Chelsea will also lose players to the African Nations Cup so they might not be so prolific as they have been. That said it’s difficult to see anyone getting close to these two over the season.”
Man United are next in the betting at 5/1 with Liverpool on 10’s and Tottenham on 14’s. United have scored 30 goals so far, Liverpool are on 31 and Tottenham have netted a total of 33.
Who`ll score the most goals in the Premier League this season
Chelsea (36) 1/1
Arsenal (36) 5/4
Man United (30) 5/1
Liverpool (31) 10/1
Tottenham (33) 14/1
Man City (24) 25/1
West Ham (24) 40/1
Aston Villa (22) 66/1
Sunderland (21) 100/1
Burnley (19) 250/1
Fulham (18) 300/1
Hull City (17) 500/1
Blackburn (16) 500/1
Everton (17) 500/1
Bolton (16) 500/1
Wigan (15) 1000/1
Stoke City (13) 1000/1
Birmingham City (12) 1000/1
Wolves (12) 1000/1
Portsmouth (11) 1000/1
2009/2010 season Numbers in brackets are goals scored so far
Victor Chandler have opened a market on who’ll score the most goals in the Premier League this season.
At the moment Chelsea and Arsenal are neck and neck on 36 goals a piece, and the firm feel it’s going to be between these two.
“We are making Chelsea the slight favourites but it’s difficult to call.” said VC Spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“Losing Van Persie is a big blow for Arsenal, but Chelsea will also lose players to the African Nations Cup so they might not be so prolific as they have been. That said it’s difficult to see anyone getting close to these two over the season.”
Man United are next in the betting at 5/1 with Liverpool on 10’s and Tottenham on 14’s. United have scored 30 goals so far, Liverpool are on 31 and Tottenham have netted a total of 33.
Who`ll score the most goals in the Premier League this season
Chelsea (36) 1/1
Arsenal (36) 5/4
Man United (30) 5/1
Liverpool (31) 10/1
Tottenham (33) 14/1
Man City (24) 25/1
West Ham (24) 40/1
Aston Villa (22) 66/1
Sunderland (21) 100/1
Burnley (19) 250/1
Fulham (18) 300/1
Hull City (17) 500/1
Blackburn (16) 500/1
Everton (17) 500/1
Bolton (16) 500/1
Wigan (15) 1000/1
Stoke City (13) 1000/1
Birmingham City (12) 1000/1
Wolves (12) 1000/1
Portsmouth (11) 1000/1
2009/2010 season Numbers in brackets are goals scored so far
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Nottingham Forest to finish third in Championship?
Odds released by Victor Chandler on who will finish (effectively) third in the Championship, without West Brom and Newcastle:
Nottingham Forest, currently in third place in the league are Victor Chandler’s 9/2 favourites in a highly competitive market, followed by Middlesbrough at 5/1 with Leicester, Cardiff & Sheff Utd all available at 7/1.
Further down in the market Blackpool, currently sitting sixth, only three points behind Forest are priced at 20/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins said: “West Brom and Newcastle are threatening to open up a gap in the Championship, but with only seven points separating the next 11 teams we thought a market without the top two would prove popular with the fans.
Nottingham Forest are on a great run and will be a tough team to catch, 9/2 looks a very fair price.”
Chandler’s have another reason to hope Nottingham Forest fail to catch the top two in the league.
Chairman Victor Chandler has offered to pay the season tickets of fans should the team, who are sponsored by the bookmaker, win the Championship. An offer that is estimated will cost £6m should it happen.
Nottingham Forest, currently in third place in the league are Victor Chandler’s 9/2 favourites in a highly competitive market, followed by Middlesbrough at 5/1 with Leicester, Cardiff & Sheff Utd all available at 7/1.
Further down in the market Blackpool, currently sitting sixth, only three points behind Forest are priced at 20/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins said: “West Brom and Newcastle are threatening to open up a gap in the Championship, but with only seven points separating the next 11 teams we thought a market without the top two would prove popular with the fans.
Nottingham Forest are on a great run and will be a tough team to catch, 9/2 looks a very fair price.”
Chandler’s have another reason to hope Nottingham Forest fail to catch the top two in the league.
Chairman Victor Chandler has offered to pay the season tickets of fans should the team, who are sponsored by the bookmaker, win the Championship. An offer that is estimated will cost £6m should it happen.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Central Coast worth looking at in soccer
Central Coast Mariners are worth looking at in tonight's game versus the Newcastle Jets.
Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.
Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.
Central Coast is still paying $2.60.
And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.
In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.
Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.
Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.
Central Coast is still paying $2.60.
And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.
In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Guest tipster comes good three weeks running
The Aussiepunt bankroll took yet another boost at the weekend thanks to the tips of our guest punter.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan's tips didn't have quite the same impact as those of Matt Campbell and Grant Stockwell before him, but a win's a win and we'll take 16% into the black any day.
Let's take a quick look back at his tips:
It was a bad start with Marquardt in the third at Caulfield. With Bowman on board and a good record starting fresh, the Kiwi galloper came in sharply in the dying minutes before the race, starting second favourite. But racing three and four wide for most of the race, there was no gas in the tank for the finish we needed. No joy for punters there.
Tootsie in the ninth, however, was every chance. Had it not been for the late charge from a 30-1 shot, we'd have been more in the money. But $2.70 for a place meant we weren't in a total disaster area.
A draw in the soccer saved our bacon. Here's a reminder of what Sullivan said: "The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents."
"Hold out" is the key part of this phrase. We were lucky, but we'll take it all the same.
With the Spring Carnival heating up, we'll try to keep you up with market movements, particularly for the Caulfield Cup, as the week progresses.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan's tips didn't have quite the same impact as those of Matt Campbell and Grant Stockwell before him, but a win's a win and we'll take 16% into the black any day.
Let's take a quick look back at his tips:
It was a bad start with Marquardt in the third at Caulfield. With Bowman on board and a good record starting fresh, the Kiwi galloper came in sharply in the dying minutes before the race, starting second favourite. But racing three and four wide for most of the race, there was no gas in the tank for the finish we needed. No joy for punters there.
Tootsie in the ninth, however, was every chance. Had it not been for the late charge from a 30-1 shot, we'd have been more in the money. But $2.70 for a place meant we weren't in a total disaster area.
A draw in the soccer saved our bacon. Here's a reminder of what Sullivan said: "The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents."
"Hold out" is the key part of this phrase. We were lucky, but we'll take it all the same.
With the Spring Carnival heating up, we'll try to keep you up with market movements, particularly for the Caulfield Cup, as the week progresses.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Michael Sullivan is Friday guest tipster
Leading corporate bookmaker Michael Sullivan isn't shy when it comes to letting people know what he thinks.
As recently as July, he defended himself against NSW Racing after he and other interstate bookies were blamed for a $3 million shortfall in prize money.
Sportingbet sponsors Victorian Racing to the tune of about $3 million a year, but is not given the same sponsorship lattitude in New South Wales.
What happens in the board room might be important to the final outcome of racing. But as punters, we're pretty narrow minded. As long as there's a race, we're happy.
And we're happy to take the superior odds from corporate bookmakers any day. One man who knows all about those odds is the punter who took on a fearless Michael Sullivan to the tune of $5 million on Lonhro winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2004.
We can only hope Michael sent a bottle of his finest to the connections of eventual race winner Grand Armee.
In between fighting the good fight and counting the beans, however, Michael has found time to give Aussiepunt followers a few tips for the weekend.
So here's how we shape up, thanks to Michael Sullivan:
Caulfield race 9: Horse 9, Tootsie. Michael's comments: Has a wide draw to overcome but will strip much fitter for two runs in Melbourne. Class Kiwi galloper who looks very tough to beat with luck in running.
Caulfield Race 3: Horse 10, Marquardt. Michael's comments: Goes well fresh and has the services of Bowman. Is over the odds and likely to be right in the finish.
Soccer: Australia v Netherlands: Draw. Michael's comments: The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents.
As usual at Aussiepunt, we'll be following our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll on each of his tips. We're sorry Michael, but at present our bankroll sits with an opposition bookie. We will, however, be happy to take their money!
We'll be riding Tootsie and Marquardt at each way odds. And a neat $25 on a draw in the soccer.
As recently as July, he defended himself against NSW Racing after he and other interstate bookies were blamed for a $3 million shortfall in prize money.
Sportingbet sponsors Victorian Racing to the tune of about $3 million a year, but is not given the same sponsorship lattitude in New South Wales.
What happens in the board room might be important to the final outcome of racing. But as punters, we're pretty narrow minded. As long as there's a race, we're happy.
And we're happy to take the superior odds from corporate bookmakers any day. One man who knows all about those odds is the punter who took on a fearless Michael Sullivan to the tune of $5 million on Lonhro winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2004.
We can only hope Michael sent a bottle of his finest to the connections of eventual race winner Grand Armee.
In between fighting the good fight and counting the beans, however, Michael has found time to give Aussiepunt followers a few tips for the weekend.
So here's how we shape up, thanks to Michael Sullivan:
Caulfield race 9: Horse 9, Tootsie. Michael's comments: Has a wide draw to overcome but will strip much fitter for two runs in Melbourne. Class Kiwi galloper who looks very tough to beat with luck in running.
Caulfield Race 3: Horse 10, Marquardt. Michael's comments: Goes well fresh and has the services of Bowman. Is over the odds and likely to be right in the finish.
Soccer: Australia v Netherlands: Draw. Michael's comments: The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents.
As usual at Aussiepunt, we'll be following our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll on each of his tips. We're sorry Michael, but at present our bankroll sits with an opposition bookie. We will, however, be happy to take their money!
We'll be riding Tootsie and Marquardt at each way odds. And a neat $25 on a draw in the soccer.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
The bankroll begins
Well, follow me, share the ups and downs, laugh at me, whatever you like. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is by working a $100 bankroll.
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
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