Big bet on Rudd confidence today

I'm not sure what term deposit accounts pay over 12 months, but I'm pretty sure it's not more than the vicinity of 5%.

I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.

They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.

If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.

I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.

I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.

But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.

The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.

“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.

“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”

“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”