Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Pakistan vs Australia ICC preview

The ICC Champions' Trophy game tonight looms as a cracker.

In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.

And it's difficult to split the teams.

Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.

Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.

Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.

Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.

Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.

Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.

Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.

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