I'll keep this short. I'd think on form Australia should defeat the kiwis in tonight's final easily.
Granted, there have been upsets in the tournament, but I think $1.38 is a reasonable return.
The New Zealand side relies heavily on its tight fielding to restrict sides below par batting performances. It's then up to their batsmen to be competitive.
Australians have hit form at the right time: Ponting, Watson, Lee, Hussey and Johnson are all handling the South African conditions extraordinarily well.
Anything above $1.30 pre-match is good for mine.
Aussiepunt will be putting a lazy 10% of our bankroll on the Aussies.
Showing posts with label ICC Champions Trophy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ICC Champions Trophy. Show all posts
Monday, October 5, 2009
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Pakistan vs Australia ICC preview
The ICC Champions' Trophy game tonight looms as a cracker.
In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.
And it's difficult to split the teams.
Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.
Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.
Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.
Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.
Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.
Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.
Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.
In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.
And it's difficult to split the teams.
Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.
Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.
Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.
Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.
Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.
Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.
Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
ICC Champions Trophy form guide
Seel following posts for a full form guide of each team competing in the ICC Champions Trophy.
Quite frankly, this is an event some cricketing nations seem to see as an obligation, rather than a commitment.
But each sides field elite athletes, and there is one thing which can be guaranteed in their nature: They don’t like to lose, which means they’ll be giving it their all.
The question mark, however, lies in how well prepared they’ll be for the contest, which was proven in last night’s opening game, where South Africa was evidently feeling a little short of match practice.
Tips:
Tonight, Wednesday: Pakistan vs West Indies
It’s impossible to tip the West Indies, but in a two-horse race, it’s also difficult to justify taking the $1.12 on offer for Pakistan.
Thursday: South Africa vs New Zealand
Expect South Africa to bounce back here. Anything more than $1.60 on offer for the Springboks is a worthwhile investment.
Friday: England vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka will be short, but should win
Saturday: Australia vs West Indies
The Australians have been victims to worse upsets than this, but I wouldn’t be putting money on it.
Sunday: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
This will be tight, but I’d prefer to see Thursday and Friday games before making a call.
Sunday: South Africa vs England
Again, it will be good to see form, but it will be a virtual semi-final for both teams and it’s hard to tip against South Africa on their home soil.
Quite frankly, this is an event some cricketing nations seem to see as an obligation, rather than a commitment.
But each sides field elite athletes, and there is one thing which can be guaranteed in their nature: They don’t like to lose, which means they’ll be giving it their all.
The question mark, however, lies in how well prepared they’ll be for the contest, which was proven in last night’s opening game, where South Africa was evidently feeling a little short of match practice.
Tips:
Tonight, Wednesday: Pakistan vs West Indies
It’s impossible to tip the West Indies, but in a two-horse race, it’s also difficult to justify taking the $1.12 on offer for Pakistan.
Thursday: South Africa vs New Zealand
Expect South Africa to bounce back here. Anything more than $1.60 on offer for the Springboks is a worthwhile investment.
Friday: England vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka will be short, but should win
Saturday: Australia vs West Indies
The Australians have been victims to worse upsets than this, but I wouldn’t be putting money on it.
Sunday: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
This will be tight, but I’d prefer to see Thursday and Friday games before making a call.
Sunday: South Africa vs England
Again, it will be good to see form, but it will be a virtual semi-final for both teams and it’s hard to tip against South Africa on their home soil.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - South Africa
South Africa
Form since July:
Lost by 55 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 188 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Before last night’s loss to Sri Lanka, the South Africans were rightly one of the favourites to win the tournament on home soil. And after brushing away some of the cobwebs in the tournament opener, might still find a way to fight their way into the semi-finals. But they must now defeat both New Zealand and England.
Given that the side has won 28 and lost 16 of its one-day games since the last Champions Trophy, they’ve shown why they’re one of the most challenging opponents in world cricket.
But recent form is the best indicator, and given that the players have had a two-month spell from international competition (with only two ODI matches since the World Twenty20 Cup), it’s difficult to judge whether they’ll find form in time to compete ferociously in the finals.
It’s a game-to-game prospect for the South Africans.
Form since July:
Lost by 55 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 188 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Before last night’s loss to Sri Lanka, the South Africans were rightly one of the favourites to win the tournament on home soil. And after brushing away some of the cobwebs in the tournament opener, might still find a way to fight their way into the semi-finals. But they must now defeat both New Zealand and England.
Given that the side has won 28 and lost 16 of its one-day games since the last Champions Trophy, they’ve shown why they’re one of the most challenging opponents in world cricket.
But recent form is the best indicator, and given that the players have had a two-month spell from international competition (with only two ODI matches since the World Twenty20 Cup), it’s difficult to judge whether they’ll find form in time to compete ferociously in the finals.
It’s a game-to-game prospect for the South Africans.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
Form since July:
Won by 55 runs vs South Africa
Won by 5 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 108 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 46 runs vs India
Won by 139 runs vs India
Won by 97 runs vs New Zealand
Lost by 132 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 146 runs vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 36 runs vs Pakistan
Summary:
The Sri Lankans, as they often are, come into the tournament severely under-rated. And last night’s game against South Africa proved that.
Since the last Champions trophy, the side has won 25 and lost 31 of its international matches, but has the side to win the big ones. No scalp seems too big.
While that indicates that they could be the giant-killers of the tournament, it presents a nightmare for punters. Unless you’re getting value, it’s worth staying away.
Games over the past two months show that their batting line up is prone to collapse. If it doesn’t, they’ll likely post a big total and conquer with its bowling lineup, boasting two of the world’s best spinners and young quicks who have done plenty to bolster the fielding credentials.
Form since July:
Won by 55 runs vs South Africa
Won by 5 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 108 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 46 runs vs India
Won by 139 runs vs India
Won by 97 runs vs New Zealand
Lost by 132 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 146 runs vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 36 runs vs Pakistan
Summary:
The Sri Lankans, as they often are, come into the tournament severely under-rated. And last night’s game against South Africa proved that.
Since the last Champions trophy, the side has won 25 and lost 31 of its international matches, but has the side to win the big ones. No scalp seems too big.
While that indicates that they could be the giant-killers of the tournament, it presents a nightmare for punters. Unless you’re getting value, it’s worth staying away.
Games over the past two months show that their batting line up is prone to collapse. If it doesn’t, they’ll likely post a big total and conquer with its bowling lineup, boasting two of the world’s best spinners and young quicks who have done plenty to bolster the fielding credentials.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - Australia
Australia
Form since July:
Lost by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 111 runs vs England
Won by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 7 wickets vs England
Won by 6 wickets vs England
Won by 39 runs vs England
Won by 4 runs vs England
Won by 189 runs vs Scotland
Summary:
People could be excused for being confused about the Australian one-day lineup. There have been plenty of changes over the past two years since the retirement of Matthew Hayden, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
Regardless, the new-look side was too good for England and still has plenty of firepower, particularly given that Brett Lee seems to have returned to form and fitness. Rest assured, they’ll be keen to repeat their Champions Trophy victory of 2006-07 where they defeated the West Indies in the final.
And form in South Africa since 2000 has been good. They’re the only foreign side to have won more matches than they’ve lost in South Africa since that time.
While performances in England were good, they’re not a great guide against more in-form sides from the sub-continent.
The Australians are a definite chance, but dusty wickets against some of the world’s top spinners might prove to be their biggest enemy.
Form since July:
Lost by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 111 runs vs England
Won by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 7 wickets vs England
Won by 6 wickets vs England
Won by 39 runs vs England
Won by 4 runs vs England
Won by 189 runs vs Scotland
Summary:
People could be excused for being confused about the Australian one-day lineup. There have been plenty of changes over the past two years since the retirement of Matthew Hayden, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
Regardless, the new-look side was too good for England and still has plenty of firepower, particularly given that Brett Lee seems to have returned to form and fitness. Rest assured, they’ll be keen to repeat their Champions Trophy victory of 2006-07 where they defeated the West Indies in the final.
And form in South Africa since 2000 has been good. They’re the only foreign side to have won more matches than they’ve lost in South Africa since that time.
While performances in England were good, they’re not a great guide against more in-form sides from the sub-continent.
The Australians are a definite chance, but dusty wickets against some of the world’s top spinners might prove to be their biggest enemy.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - India
India
Form since July:
Lost by 103 runs vs New Zealand
Won by 46 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 139 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 4 wickets vs New Zealand
Won by 6 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 8 wickets vs West Indies
Won by 20 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Potentially the best side in the world, India for reasons seemingly only known to them, they lack consistency. They do, however, have a long list of big-game players who are likely to turn it on in a world event such as the Champions Trophy.
They will feel confident against the Australians who are in the same pool. But have a look at recent form and it’s noteworthy that they struggle to put together three wins on the trot. And a loss to New Zealand in a warm-up game won’t do their headspace much good.
Form since July:
Lost by 103 runs vs New Zealand
Won by 46 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 139 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 4 wickets vs New Zealand
Won by 6 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 8 wickets vs West Indies
Won by 20 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Potentially the best side in the world, India for reasons seemingly only known to them, they lack consistency. They do, however, have a long list of big-game players who are likely to turn it on in a world event such as the Champions Trophy.
They will feel confident against the Australians who are in the same pool. But have a look at recent form and it’s noteworthy that they struggle to put together three wins on the trot. And a loss to New Zealand in a warm-up game won’t do their headspace much good.
ICC Champions Trophy form - Pakistan
Pakistan
Form since July:
Won by 6 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Won by 108 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 132 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 146 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 36 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 15 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
In the early stages of the series against Sri Lanka, it seemed like the Pakistanis would self-destruct. They didn’t look like winning a game. But they’ve come good, with wins of more than 100 in their last three contests against the Sri Lankans.
They will for the first game be without Younis, their captain, but they’ve got some definite game winners, not least Shahid Afridi who can be one of the most destructive ODI players with both bat and ball.
If you’re looking for some value to take out the title, the Pakistanis could be it. And although it sounds a little cruel, troubles in their homeland mean they’ve had plenty of practice playing away from home.
Not only will they be a realistic chance at longish odds, they’ll take on the title of sentimental favourite – particularly if South Africa bow out before the finals.
Form since July:
Won by 6 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Won by 108 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 132 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 146 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 36 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 15 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
In the early stages of the series against Sri Lanka, it seemed like the Pakistanis would self-destruct. They didn’t look like winning a game. But they’ve come good, with wins of more than 100 in their last three contests against the Sri Lankans.
They will for the first game be without Younis, their captain, but they’ve got some definite game winners, not least Shahid Afridi who can be one of the most destructive ODI players with both bat and ball.
If you’re looking for some value to take out the title, the Pakistanis could be it. And although it sounds a little cruel, troubles in their homeland mean they’ve had plenty of practice playing away from home.
Not only will they be a realistic chance at longish odds, they’ll take on the title of sentimental favourite – particularly if South Africa bow out before the finals.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - New Zealand
New Zealand
Form since July:
Won by 103 runs vs India
Lost by 2 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Lost by 97 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 61 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
The Kiwis are another country which has been starved of ODI cricket since the Twenty20 world cup, and performances haven’t been wonderful despite a confidence-boosting win against India in a warm-up game.
New Zealand has one of the tightest bowling averages in world one-day cricket and is usually superb in the field. The question mark lies over the side’s ability to perform consistently with the bat.
But don’t be surprised if they can spring a surprise couple of wins required to make the semi-finals.
Form since July:
Won by 103 runs vs India
Lost by 2 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Lost by 97 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 61 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
The Kiwis are another country which has been starved of ODI cricket since the Twenty20 world cup, and performances haven’t been wonderful despite a confidence-boosting win against India in a warm-up game.
New Zealand has one of the tightest bowling averages in world one-day cricket and is usually superb in the field. The question mark lies over the side’s ability to perform consistently with the bat.
But don’t be surprised if they can spring a surprise couple of wins required to make the semi-finals.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - England
England
Form since July:
Won by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 111 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 7 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 6 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 39 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 runs vs Australia
Summary:
England is capable of defeating any opposition if they have an on-day. But to rally the consistency required to win the ICC Champions Trophy is unlikely. Both England and Australia are coming off the back of a long and arduous Ashes tour, and despite losing the ODI series 6-1, its difficult to judge form.
Without Andrew Flintoff in the lineup, it’s difficult to see how they can turn in regular success. Both bowling and top-order batting are particularly fragile in the one-day format. It will be interesting to see how Swann performs against some of the nations more attuned to playing spin on turn-friendly wickets. But the vulnerability of the old dart comes as good news to South Africa who must beat the old enemy to make the semi-finals.
Form since July:
Won by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 111 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 7 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 6 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 39 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 runs vs Australia
Summary:
England is capable of defeating any opposition if they have an on-day. But to rally the consistency required to win the ICC Champions Trophy is unlikely. Both England and Australia are coming off the back of a long and arduous Ashes tour, and despite losing the ODI series 6-1, its difficult to judge form.
Without Andrew Flintoff in the lineup, it’s difficult to see how they can turn in regular success. Both bowling and top-order batting are particularly fragile in the one-day format. It will be interesting to see how Swann performs against some of the nations more attuned to playing spin on turn-friendly wickets. But the vulnerability of the old dart comes as good news to South Africa who must beat the old enemy to make the semi-finals.
ICC Trophy form - West Indies
West Indies
Form since July:
Lost by 5 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 188 runs vs South Africa
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 52 runs vs Bangladesh
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Won by 8 wickets vs India
Lost by 20 runs vs India
Summary:
The West Indies are the sob story of world cricket and many would believe they’re lucky to be at the Champions Trophy tournament after a 3-0 loss at the hands of Bangladesh a couple of months ago. Unfortunately, their fate seems to lie in the hands of two men, Shiv Chanderpaul and Chris Gayle. If either of those reach 100, the side is in with a chance. But when opposition teams can get 388 against them, as South Africa did in one of the warm-up games, it doesn’t really matter how many their batsmen can muster.
The former world cricket power has won only 11 games and lost 34 since the last Champions Trophy – not good reading if you’re the least bit nostalgic about the days Holding, Garner, Roberts, Marshall and company terrified world batting lineups while Richards, Lloyd, Haynes, Greenidge and company blasted the runs.
Form since July:
Lost by 5 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 188 runs vs South Africa
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 52 runs vs Bangladesh
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Won by 8 wickets vs India
Lost by 20 runs vs India
Summary:
The West Indies are the sob story of world cricket and many would believe they’re lucky to be at the Champions Trophy tournament after a 3-0 loss at the hands of Bangladesh a couple of months ago. Unfortunately, their fate seems to lie in the hands of two men, Shiv Chanderpaul and Chris Gayle. If either of those reach 100, the side is in with a chance. But when opposition teams can get 388 against them, as South Africa did in one of the warm-up games, it doesn’t really matter how many their batsmen can muster.
The former world cricket power has won only 11 games and lost 34 since the last Champions Trophy – not good reading if you’re the least bit nostalgic about the days Holding, Garner, Roberts, Marshall and company terrified world batting lineups while Richards, Lloyd, Haynes, Greenidge and company blasted the runs.
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