Friday, October 9, 2009

Joe Hockey firms as Liberal leader

Here's a statement put out today by Sportingbet Australia:

Punters are swarming to Opposition leadership contender Joe Hockey, causing his odds to shorten dramatically from $3.00 to $2.35 to lead the Coalition to the next federal election.

In the midst of intense media speculation, precipitated by the admission by Hockey that he had been ‘tapped on the shoulder’ to lead the party, Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have slumped to $2.00.

While Hockey is considered unwilling to mount a challenge and Turnbull is said to be determined to hold onto the leadership, the decision is widely considered to be out of their hands.

The Coalition party room, heavily divided over the forthcoming emissions trading debate, looks set to decide the issue sooner rather than later; creating a degree of uncertainty for punters.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Opposition leadership market was hotting up, with Hockey attracting strong betting from punters.

“All the betting is with Hockey at the moment which would reflect his newfound status of leader-elect,” said Mr Sullivan.

“However despite the media being full of obituaries for Turnbull today, he remains short at $2.00 which suggests that this may not be over yet.

“Punters aren’t entirely willing to second guess the Coalition party room, which could do anything – or nothing.”

A third leadership option in Tony Abbott, who has also shortened dramatically in recent times, despite being widely dismissed by commentators as unelectable, brings up the rear at $4.25.

Meanwhile other leadership contenders in Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21) have been overtaken by punters backing ‘Any Other’ at $13.00.

FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Turnbull $2.00
Hockey $2.35
Abbott $4.25
Robb $17.00
Dutton $21.00
Bishop $21.00
Any Other $13.00

Michael Sullivan is Friday guest tipster

Leading corporate bookmaker Michael Sullivan isn't shy when it comes to letting people know what he thinks.

As recently as July, he defended himself against NSW Racing after he and other interstate bookies were blamed for a $3 million shortfall in prize money.

Sportingbet sponsors Victorian Racing to the tune of about $3 million a year, but is not given the same sponsorship lattitude in New South Wales.

What happens in the board room might be important to the final outcome of racing. But as punters, we're pretty narrow minded. As long as there's a race, we're happy.

And we're happy to take the superior odds from corporate bookmakers any day. One man who knows all about those odds is the punter who took on a fearless Michael Sullivan to the tune of $5 million on Lonhro winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2004.

We can only hope Michael sent a bottle of his finest to the connections of eventual race winner Grand Armee.

In between fighting the good fight and counting the beans, however, Michael has found time to give Aussiepunt followers a few tips for the weekend.

So here's how we shape up, thanks to Michael Sullivan:

Caulfield race 9: Horse 9, Tootsie. Michael's comments: Has a wide draw to overcome but will strip much fitter for two runs in Melbourne. Class Kiwi galloper who looks very tough to beat with luck in running.

Caulfield Race 3: Horse 10, Marquardt. Michael's comments: Goes well fresh and has the services of Bowman. Is over the odds and likely to be right in the finish.

Soccer: Australia v Netherlands: Draw. Michael's comments: The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents.

As usual at Aussiepunt, we'll be following our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll on each of his tips. We're sorry Michael, but at present our bankroll sits with an opposition bookie. We will, however, be happy to take their money!

We'll be riding Tootsie and Marquardt at each way odds. And a neat $25 on a draw in the soccer.

AFL trade news link

This is the best tracker of trade news I've seen for the AFL, as done by afl.com.au:

http://www.afl.com.au/offseason/tradewindsblog/tabid/15020/Default.aspx

Spring Racing Carnival tipping competition

One thing bookmaker Sportsbet seems to do quite well is its tipping competitions.


Bookies are often looking for the edge when it comes to retaining a loyal audience, and Sportsbet's footy tipping competitions for both league and AFL were well organised.


For those interested, they've not got a spring racing carnival tipping competition under way.


My understanding is you don't have to lodge a bet, nor hold an account with Sportsbet to enter. But there are $85,000 worth of cash and other prizes up for grabs.


First prize is a luxury trip for two to Malaysia. Tipping starts for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday October 17.


There is also a "Fantasy Stable" Competition which kicks off with the Caulfield Guineas tomorrow.


All terms and conditions are on on the Sportsbet website: www.sportsbet.com.au

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement

As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"

I'd reckon the market has got it about right.

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:

The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.

“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.

“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”


2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Hey Hey vs Masterchef

It's often been said that if you want a good guide for social trends. If that's the case, advertisers should be running to Channel 9 tonight for the second and final Hey Hey It's Saturday (on Wednesday) reunion.

With Sportingbet Australia, it's slipped into $1.05 to top the ratings, and as a friend used to say regularly: "It's better than bank interest."

The reunion show goes head to head with Celebrity Masterchef, and it's unlikely even the attraction of lovely former Hi 5 singer Kathleen de Leon deep-frying a spatchcock will help the cooking show outrate Dickie Knee and Plucka.

So what were bookies thinking when they opened the market at $1.30? Did they think a taped version of old hacks in the kitchen would struggle against the uncertainty of live television? I'm just dirty I didn't get a piece of it.

Regardless, real value comes in the ratings: Hey Hey's first show roped in 2.169 million viewers. You'll get $1.95 for it to top the 2 million mark again, and $1.85 if you think enough people have had a gutfull enough to peg it back to under 2 million.

Maybe the de Leon spatchcock factor will have something to do with that?

You'll get $1.85 if you think Celebrity Masterchef will top 1.4 million viewers and $1.95 if you think it'll fall below that figure.

Expect Hey Hey to drop off a little, but whether that translates to Kathleen de Leon (er, Masterchef) remains on a knife-edge.

Take the 5% interest if you wish, but the exact figures will be tough to call.

Australian Idol form guide: Top 8

I started this, so I guess I'd better keep it up.


This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.


Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.

After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.

The form:


Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.45; Sportingbet $2.75; Betfair $2.94

He's been the favourite all along but after he messed up his song last week, there's some value floating around, especially with Betfair which is offering a nice dividend. He'll bounce back and is highly favoured to be in the top three at the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $3.25; Sportingbet $3; Betfair $4

Hayley is emerging as the biggest threat to Stan and that's reflected in the odds. She's come in from $21 before the final 12 was chosen to almost unbackable odds. Her personality is contagious and she's improving as the weeks go by. She's likely to be the girls' best hope.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $8; Sportingbet $6.50; Betfair $14

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Wingham boy is the idol darkhorse and is not taking too many risks with his odds, particularly seeing that other agencies are offering more than double the $6.50 on offer with Sullivan. "While there is no doubt that Stan Walker and Hayley are worthy favourites, James is looking the most likely outside this pair," he says.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $7; Sportingbet $7; Betfair $7.80

Nathan has consistently been around the $6-7 mark and continues to hover as an outside threat to the top two. The boy can sing and he's shaken off Dicko's "gay" tag with admirable grace. We've tipped him to outlast Kim Cooper who was outstanding last week. It's tough to predict how he'll resonate with voters, so it's a week-to-week prospect from here on in.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8.50; Sportingbet $8; Betfair $23

Wow. What's with the $23 at Betfair? Kim was bottom three two weeks in a row and scraped through. But she's lifted her game to a standard many thought she was capable of in early rounds of the betting. Like Nathan, it's a week-to-week prospect from the North Queenslander.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $10; Sportingbet $10; Betfair $7.80

The brickie was an early favourite, but has lost plenty of favour with punters. There's still plenty of money being held by the bookies for this Aussie battler, but his lack of experience is starting to let him down a bit as he's exposed by more-accomplished performers.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $14; Sportingbet $13; Betfair $23

Still the dark horse for mine. His humble approach wins him plenty of favour, but he'll need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat if he's to outlast the majority of the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $12; Sportingbet $14; Betfair $16.50

It's remarkable that someone who hasn't yet appeared in the bottom three can be regarded the rank outsider with the bookies. Her personality is dragging her through the competition and if she can now pull out something special, her odds might again drop. But it's unlikely she can take the title. Each way odds might be the best option for Kate.

AFL trade updates: Bad boys cause market waves

It seems the bad boys are making all the waves in the AFL trade wars - Hall, Fevola and Brown leading the way.

Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.

Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.

No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.

Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx

Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.

"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.

Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Big bet on Rudd confidence today

I'm not sure what term deposit accounts pay over 12 months, but I'm pretty sure it's not more than the vicinity of 5%.

I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.

They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.

If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.

I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.

I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.

But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.

The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.

“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.

“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”

“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”

Monday, October 5, 2009

ICC Champions Trophy final

I'll keep this short. I'd think on form Australia should defeat the kiwis in tonight's final easily.

Granted, there have been upsets in the tournament, but I think $1.38 is a reasonable return.

The New Zealand side relies heavily on its tight fielding to restrict sides below par batting performances. It's then up to their batsmen to be competitive.

Australians have hit form at the right time: Ponting, Watson, Lee, Hussey and Johnson are all handling the South African conditions extraordinarily well.

Anything above $1.30 pre-match is good for mine.

Aussiepunt will be putting a lazy 10% of our bankroll on the Aussies.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Great weekend for aussiepunt

Aussiepunt's bankroll took another 53% rise over the weekend, largely thanks to the big unit from Sportsbet, Matt Campbell.

The former AFL star, turned broadcaster and pro punter, tipped us two winners: Speed Gifted in the 7th at Randwick, and Melbourne to cover the -4.5 line against Parramatta in today's rugby league grand final.

If we thought AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell's two from four record the week before was good (and it was), then Matt's perfect record with aussiepunt takes on legendary status.

Speed Gifted started the betting on Friday at $3.40 but a soggy track at Randwick meant that price blew out to $6.70. Other runners in the race were proven in the wet, but a question mark hung over the imported stayer's ability to handle the heavy track.

The bottom line is that Matt's pick bolted in, and now looks like a real chance to motor over the two mile in a few week's time in Melbourne.

The rugby league bet could have gone either way. We got a bit toey when Fui ran in with eight minutes on the clock. But thankfully, the result went in our favour which added a nice bit of cream on top of an already successful weekend.

The week's stocktake saw us invest in only four events. Two of them were Matt's. Another was a small 5% stake on Pakistan in the one-day thriller - a result which went against us.

And we still have an Australian Idol head to head battle in the running - both Nathan Brake (who we've supported) and Kim Cooper (who we've tipped Nathan to outlast) avoided the bottom three, so we could have a lengthy wait on our hands for that one.

You can catch Matt's weekend tips at sportsbet.com each Friday. We've already lined up a guest tipster for next weekend, but there are now two pretty tough acts to follow.

I'll reveal a bit more about next Friday's guest tipster later in the week.

The bottom line: Our initial bankroll of $100 now stands at $248 with the Idol bet still in the running.

Please note, this site is designed for fun. While we've had a couple of wins, we'll also give a warts and all assessment of our losses. Please don't bet more than you can afford.