Will Hayne defect from NRL to AFL?

It's no secret certain circles of the AFL have their eye on Jarryd Hayne, but would he go? And how many other big budgets are available. The price bar has been set fairly high.

This is a great market for the bookies, because chances are high that some no-name rugby league hack who played a little bit of AFL at school will be picked up on the cheap. After all, if the AFL can double the salary of someone with limited future in the NRL, why wouldn't they go? And the bookie cleans up!

WHO WILL DEFECT NEXT?

Greg Inglis is the $3.00 favourite in a Sportingbet Australia market to be the next NRL player to follow Karmichael Hunt and Israel Folau to AFL.

Inglis’ Storm teammate Billy Slater is on the second line of betting at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Storm salary cap woes made them the two most obvious targets.

“Inglis and Slater are both freaks and would be brilliant at any sport so they are two obvious targets for AFL,” Sullivan said.

“The fact the Storm need to wipe around $1m off next season wages means they could very well be open to offers for one of their stars.”

Other players in Sportingbet market include, Jamal Idris, Jarryd Hayne, Josh Dugan and the Morris brothers, Brett and Josh.

“The AFL obviously have their sights set on the best young talent in the NRL, with Brad Scott the latest coach to target them and the list of players we came up with are the obvious targets,” Sullivan said.

“We are more than happy to quote prices on any other player and if no one defects by the end of 2011, we will refund all bets to punters.”

WHICH NRL PLAYER WILL BE NEXT TO DEFECT TO AFL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Greg Inglis 3.00
Billy Slater 3.50
Jamal Idris 8.00
Josh Morris 8.00
Brett Morris 8.00
Jarryd Hayne 9.00
Josh Dugan 11.00
Lachlan Coote 15.00
Darius Boyd 21.00
Michael Jennings 21.00
Todd Carney 26.00
Blake Ferguson 51.00
Manu Vatuvei 51.00
Fui Fui Moi Moi 101.00

AFL draft system gone wrong

A quick scan through the coming weekend's AFL match odds reveals that the Western Bulldogs are at $1.06 with Sportingbet against Richmond, while Collingwood are at a marginally healthier $1.07 to beat Melbourne.

While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.

Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.

Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.

To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.

A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.

I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!

AFL trade news link

This is the best tracker of trade news I've seen for the AFL, as done by afl.com.au:

http://www.afl.com.au/offseason/tradewindsblog/tabid/15020/Default.aspx

Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement

As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"

I'd reckon the market has got it about right.

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:

The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.

“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.

“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”


2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00

AFL trade updates: Bad boys cause market waves

It seems the bad boys are making all the waves in the AFL trade wars - Hall, Fevola and Brown leading the way.

Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.

Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.

No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.

Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx

Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.

"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.

Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.