Every Friday we’ll be inviting a guest tipster to the Aussiepunt panel, and to kick things off we’ve got an absolute bottler.
Grant Stockwell knows the racing scene inside out. He’s Brisbane’s racing correspondent for AAP and for years he wrote for Racetrack which was Australia’s oldest racing magazine until it closed earlier this year.
He was a correspondent for Turf Monthly when based in Japan.
But more importantly for us, he knows a fair bit about the nags, and he’s found a special for Mooney Valley’s race meeting tonight.
He’s also thrown in a few chances at Randwick tomorrow to keep us interested as we tune into the AFL Grand Final.
Best bet:
Nicconi. Friday night at Moonee Valley. Race 6, horse 6. Currently $3.90 fixed price.
Next best:
Hus Der Lieften. Saturday at Randwick. Race 1, horse 1. Currently $3 fixed price.
Each way:
Little Surfer Girl. Saturday at Randwick. Race 3, horse 5. Currently $7.50 fixed price.
McClintock. Saturday at Randwick. Race 5, horse 5. Currently $6.50 fixed price.
So this week, our bankroll’s with Grant. We’ll invest 10% of our initial investment on each of his tips and hope he’s on the money!
Friday, September 25, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Footy finals tips
Finals time in any code of football can be confusing. The media hype about fairytales, speculation, analysis and selections can amount to mass public confusion.
But therein lies the beauty of this time of year.
Here’s the tips and some form:
AFL
Saint Kilda ($2.35) vs Geelong ($1.63)
This should be a terrific grand final. But the odds are right to back St Kilda home. You’d be right to think they were a little lucky to scrape home against the Bulldogs last week, but they’re the most consistent side and one only needs to look at the Brownlow voting to see how many stars they have.
Reiwoldt will again be the key. If he can kick five or six goals, they’re likely to win the grand final.
A Brownlow Medal to Gary Ablett Jr is not enough to get a side home. Nor is a great performance against Collingwood last week. After being beaten in last year’s grand final, they’ll be keen to make good this year.
But if that’s high stakes, think about the Saints’ 43-year drought to win a flag. They’ve been there before and after an almost-perfect season – during which they’ve already beaten the Cats, they deserve to win.
Tip: Saints by 14
Rugby League
Melbourne ($1.38) vs Brisbane ($3.10)
Brisbane has blown out due to the Peter Wallace injury and speculation around who they’ll play in his place. But with both sides boasting big-game players in key positions, it’s bound to be a superb game.
Normally, I’d say it was worth taking Brisbane with the start, but both sides are capable of amassing big scores which could render the start useless.
Sorry to sit on the fence, but I’ll be steering well clear of this one.
Bulldogs ($1.95) vs Parramatta ($1.87)
The Dogs have been more consistent through the year, but this is a do-or-die battle, and all the talk is whether the Parramatta fairytale can continue. Their supporters are extremely loyal and they have a star playmaker in Jarryd Hayne.
They also have one of the toughest and most reliable men in rugby league in Nathan Hindmarsh.
But I’m all in favour of supporting consistency, and Brett Kimmorley is confident his cheek will stand up to fierce pressure in defence. Rest assured, the Ells forwards will happily run at the wounded soldier.
The Bulldogs, with the advantage of a week off, will win for mine. But they'll need to bounce back from their round 19 loss to the Eels.
Tip: Bulldogs by 8
But therein lies the beauty of this time of year.
Here’s the tips and some form:
AFL
Saint Kilda ($2.35) vs Geelong ($1.63)
This should be a terrific grand final. But the odds are right to back St Kilda home. You’d be right to think they were a little lucky to scrape home against the Bulldogs last week, but they’re the most consistent side and one only needs to look at the Brownlow voting to see how many stars they have.
Reiwoldt will again be the key. If he can kick five or six goals, they’re likely to win the grand final.
A Brownlow Medal to Gary Ablett Jr is not enough to get a side home. Nor is a great performance against Collingwood last week. After being beaten in last year’s grand final, they’ll be keen to make good this year.
But if that’s high stakes, think about the Saints’ 43-year drought to win a flag. They’ve been there before and after an almost-perfect season – during which they’ve already beaten the Cats, they deserve to win.
Tip: Saints by 14
Rugby League
Melbourne ($1.38) vs Brisbane ($3.10)
Brisbane has blown out due to the Peter Wallace injury and speculation around who they’ll play in his place. But with both sides boasting big-game players in key positions, it’s bound to be a superb game.
Normally, I’d say it was worth taking Brisbane with the start, but both sides are capable of amassing big scores which could render the start useless.
Sorry to sit on the fence, but I’ll be steering well clear of this one.
Bulldogs ($1.95) vs Parramatta ($1.87)
The Dogs have been more consistent through the year, but this is a do-or-die battle, and all the talk is whether the Parramatta fairytale can continue. Their supporters are extremely loyal and they have a star playmaker in Jarryd Hayne.
They also have one of the toughest and most reliable men in rugby league in Nathan Hindmarsh.
But I’m all in favour of supporting consistency, and Brett Kimmorley is confident his cheek will stand up to fierce pressure in defence. Rest assured, the Ells forwards will happily run at the wounded soldier.
The Bulldogs, with the advantage of a week off, will win for mine. But they'll need to bounce back from their round 19 loss to the Eels.
Tip: Bulldogs by 8
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
ICC Champions Trophy form guide
Seel following posts for a full form guide of each team competing in the ICC Champions Trophy.
Quite frankly, this is an event some cricketing nations seem to see as an obligation, rather than a commitment.
But each sides field elite athletes, and there is one thing which can be guaranteed in their nature: They don’t like to lose, which means they’ll be giving it their all.
The question mark, however, lies in how well prepared they’ll be for the contest, which was proven in last night’s opening game, where South Africa was evidently feeling a little short of match practice.
Tips:
Tonight, Wednesday: Pakistan vs West Indies
It’s impossible to tip the West Indies, but in a two-horse race, it’s also difficult to justify taking the $1.12 on offer for Pakistan.
Thursday: South Africa vs New Zealand
Expect South Africa to bounce back here. Anything more than $1.60 on offer for the Springboks is a worthwhile investment.
Friday: England vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka will be short, but should win
Saturday: Australia vs West Indies
The Australians have been victims to worse upsets than this, but I wouldn’t be putting money on it.
Sunday: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
This will be tight, but I’d prefer to see Thursday and Friday games before making a call.
Sunday: South Africa vs England
Again, it will be good to see form, but it will be a virtual semi-final for both teams and it’s hard to tip against South Africa on their home soil.
Quite frankly, this is an event some cricketing nations seem to see as an obligation, rather than a commitment.
But each sides field elite athletes, and there is one thing which can be guaranteed in their nature: They don’t like to lose, which means they’ll be giving it their all.
The question mark, however, lies in how well prepared they’ll be for the contest, which was proven in last night’s opening game, where South Africa was evidently feeling a little short of match practice.
Tips:
Tonight, Wednesday: Pakistan vs West Indies
It’s impossible to tip the West Indies, but in a two-horse race, it’s also difficult to justify taking the $1.12 on offer for Pakistan.
Thursday: South Africa vs New Zealand
Expect South Africa to bounce back here. Anything more than $1.60 on offer for the Springboks is a worthwhile investment.
Friday: England vs Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka will be short, but should win
Saturday: Australia vs West Indies
The Australians have been victims to worse upsets than this, but I wouldn’t be putting money on it.
Sunday: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka
This will be tight, but I’d prefer to see Thursday and Friday games before making a call.
Sunday: South Africa vs England
Again, it will be good to see form, but it will be a virtual semi-final for both teams and it’s hard to tip against South Africa on their home soil.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - South Africa
South Africa
Form since July:
Lost by 55 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 188 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Before last night’s loss to Sri Lanka, the South Africans were rightly one of the favourites to win the tournament on home soil. And after brushing away some of the cobwebs in the tournament opener, might still find a way to fight their way into the semi-finals. But they must now defeat both New Zealand and England.
Given that the side has won 28 and lost 16 of its one-day games since the last Champions Trophy, they’ve shown why they’re one of the most challenging opponents in world cricket.
But recent form is the best indicator, and given that the players have had a two-month spell from international competition (with only two ODI matches since the World Twenty20 Cup), it’s difficult to judge whether they’ll find form in time to compete ferociously in the finals.
It’s a game-to-game prospect for the South Africans.
Form since July:
Lost by 55 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 188 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Before last night’s loss to Sri Lanka, the South Africans were rightly one of the favourites to win the tournament on home soil. And after brushing away some of the cobwebs in the tournament opener, might still find a way to fight their way into the semi-finals. But they must now defeat both New Zealand and England.
Given that the side has won 28 and lost 16 of its one-day games since the last Champions Trophy, they’ve shown why they’re one of the most challenging opponents in world cricket.
But recent form is the best indicator, and given that the players have had a two-month spell from international competition (with only two ODI matches since the World Twenty20 Cup), it’s difficult to judge whether they’ll find form in time to compete ferociously in the finals.
It’s a game-to-game prospect for the South Africans.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka
Form since July:
Won by 55 runs vs South Africa
Won by 5 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 108 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 46 runs vs India
Won by 139 runs vs India
Won by 97 runs vs New Zealand
Lost by 132 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 146 runs vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 36 runs vs Pakistan
Summary:
The Sri Lankans, as they often are, come into the tournament severely under-rated. And last night’s game against South Africa proved that.
Since the last Champions trophy, the side has won 25 and lost 31 of its international matches, but has the side to win the big ones. No scalp seems too big.
While that indicates that they could be the giant-killers of the tournament, it presents a nightmare for punters. Unless you’re getting value, it’s worth staying away.
Games over the past two months show that their batting line up is prone to collapse. If it doesn’t, they’ll likely post a big total and conquer with its bowling lineup, boasting two of the world’s best spinners and young quicks who have done plenty to bolster the fielding credentials.
Form since July:
Won by 55 runs vs South Africa
Won by 5 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 108 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 46 runs vs India
Won by 139 runs vs India
Won by 97 runs vs New Zealand
Lost by 132 runs vs Pakistan
Lost by 146 runs vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 6 wickets vs Pakistan
Won by 36 runs vs Pakistan
Summary:
The Sri Lankans, as they often are, come into the tournament severely under-rated. And last night’s game against South Africa proved that.
Since the last Champions trophy, the side has won 25 and lost 31 of its international matches, but has the side to win the big ones. No scalp seems too big.
While that indicates that they could be the giant-killers of the tournament, it presents a nightmare for punters. Unless you’re getting value, it’s worth staying away.
Games over the past two months show that their batting line up is prone to collapse. If it doesn’t, they’ll likely post a big total and conquer with its bowling lineup, boasting two of the world’s best spinners and young quicks who have done plenty to bolster the fielding credentials.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - Australia
Australia
Form since July:
Lost by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 111 runs vs England
Won by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 7 wickets vs England
Won by 6 wickets vs England
Won by 39 runs vs England
Won by 4 runs vs England
Won by 189 runs vs Scotland
Summary:
People could be excused for being confused about the Australian one-day lineup. There have been plenty of changes over the past two years since the retirement of Matthew Hayden, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
Regardless, the new-look side was too good for England and still has plenty of firepower, particularly given that Brett Lee seems to have returned to form and fitness. Rest assured, they’ll be keen to repeat their Champions Trophy victory of 2006-07 where they defeated the West Indies in the final.
And form in South Africa since 2000 has been good. They’re the only foreign side to have won more matches than they’ve lost in South Africa since that time.
While performances in England were good, they’re not a great guide against more in-form sides from the sub-continent.
The Australians are a definite chance, but dusty wickets against some of the world’s top spinners might prove to be their biggest enemy.
Form since July:
Lost by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 111 runs vs England
Won by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 7 wickets vs England
Won by 6 wickets vs England
Won by 39 runs vs England
Won by 4 runs vs England
Won by 189 runs vs Scotland
Summary:
People could be excused for being confused about the Australian one-day lineup. There have been plenty of changes over the past two years since the retirement of Matthew Hayden, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
Regardless, the new-look side was too good for England and still has plenty of firepower, particularly given that Brett Lee seems to have returned to form and fitness. Rest assured, they’ll be keen to repeat their Champions Trophy victory of 2006-07 where they defeated the West Indies in the final.
And form in South Africa since 2000 has been good. They’re the only foreign side to have won more matches than they’ve lost in South Africa since that time.
While performances in England were good, they’re not a great guide against more in-form sides from the sub-continent.
The Australians are a definite chance, but dusty wickets against some of the world’s top spinners might prove to be their biggest enemy.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - India
India
Form since July:
Lost by 103 runs vs New Zealand
Won by 46 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 139 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 4 wickets vs New Zealand
Won by 6 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 8 wickets vs West Indies
Won by 20 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Potentially the best side in the world, India for reasons seemingly only known to them, they lack consistency. They do, however, have a long list of big-game players who are likely to turn it on in a world event such as the Champions Trophy.
They will feel confident against the Australians who are in the same pool. But have a look at recent form and it’s noteworthy that they struggle to put together three wins on the trot. And a loss to New Zealand in a warm-up game won’t do their headspace much good.
Form since July:
Lost by 103 runs vs New Zealand
Won by 46 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 139 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 4 wickets vs New Zealand
Won by 6 wickets vs West Indies
Lost by 8 wickets vs West Indies
Won by 20 runs vs West Indies
Summary:
Potentially the best side in the world, India for reasons seemingly only known to them, they lack consistency. They do, however, have a long list of big-game players who are likely to turn it on in a world event such as the Champions Trophy.
They will feel confident against the Australians who are in the same pool. But have a look at recent form and it’s noteworthy that they struggle to put together three wins on the trot. And a loss to New Zealand in a warm-up game won’t do their headspace much good.
ICC Champions Trophy form - Pakistan
Pakistan
Form since July:
Won by 6 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Won by 108 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 132 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 146 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 36 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 15 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
In the early stages of the series against Sri Lanka, it seemed like the Pakistanis would self-destruct. They didn’t look like winning a game. But they’ve come good, with wins of more than 100 in their last three contests against the Sri Lankans.
They will for the first game be without Younis, their captain, but they’ve got some definite game winners, not least Shahid Afridi who can be one of the most destructive ODI players with both bat and ball.
If you’re looking for some value to take out the title, the Pakistanis could be it. And although it sounds a little cruel, troubles in their homeland mean they’ve had plenty of practice playing away from home.
Not only will they be a realistic chance at longish odds, they’ll take on the title of sentimental favourite – particularly if South Africa bow out before the finals.
Form since July:
Won by 6 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Won by 108 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 132 runs vs Sri Lanka
Won by 146 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 6 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 36 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 15 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
In the early stages of the series against Sri Lanka, it seemed like the Pakistanis would self-destruct. They didn’t look like winning a game. But they’ve come good, with wins of more than 100 in their last three contests against the Sri Lankans.
They will for the first game be without Younis, their captain, but they’ve got some definite game winners, not least Shahid Afridi who can be one of the most destructive ODI players with both bat and ball.
If you’re looking for some value to take out the title, the Pakistanis could be it. And although it sounds a little cruel, troubles in their homeland mean they’ve had plenty of practice playing away from home.
Not only will they be a realistic chance at longish odds, they’ll take on the title of sentimental favourite – particularly if South Africa bow out before the finals.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - New Zealand
New Zealand
Form since July:
Won by 103 runs vs India
Lost by 2 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Lost by 97 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 61 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
The Kiwis are another country which has been starved of ODI cricket since the Twenty20 world cup, and performances haven’t been wonderful despite a confidence-boosting win against India in a warm-up game.
New Zealand has one of the tightest bowling averages in world one-day cricket and is usually superb in the field. The question mark lies over the side’s ability to perform consistently with the bat.
But don’t be surprised if they can spring a surprise couple of wins required to make the semi-finals.
Form since July:
Won by 103 runs vs India
Lost by 2 wickets vs Warriors (SA)
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Lost by 97 runs vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 61 runs vs Sri Lanka A
Summary:
The Kiwis are another country which has been starved of ODI cricket since the Twenty20 world cup, and performances haven’t been wonderful despite a confidence-boosting win against India in a warm-up game.
New Zealand has one of the tightest bowling averages in world one-day cricket and is usually superb in the field. The question mark lies over the side’s ability to perform consistently with the bat.
But don’t be surprised if they can spring a surprise couple of wins required to make the semi-finals.
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - England
England
Form since July:
Won by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 111 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 7 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 6 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 39 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 runs vs Australia
Summary:
England is capable of defeating any opposition if they have an on-day. But to rally the consistency required to win the ICC Champions Trophy is unlikely. Both England and Australia are coming off the back of a long and arduous Ashes tour, and despite losing the ODI series 6-1, its difficult to judge form.
Without Andrew Flintoff in the lineup, it’s difficult to see how they can turn in regular success. Both bowling and top-order batting are particularly fragile in the one-day format. It will be interesting to see how Swann performs against some of the nations more attuned to playing spin on turn-friendly wickets. But the vulnerability of the old dart comes as good news to South Africa who must beat the old enemy to make the semi-finals.
Form since July:
Won by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 111 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 7 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 6 wickets vs Australia
Lost by 39 runs vs Australia
Lost by 4 runs vs Australia
Summary:
England is capable of defeating any opposition if they have an on-day. But to rally the consistency required to win the ICC Champions Trophy is unlikely. Both England and Australia are coming off the back of a long and arduous Ashes tour, and despite losing the ODI series 6-1, its difficult to judge form.
Without Andrew Flintoff in the lineup, it’s difficult to see how they can turn in regular success. Both bowling and top-order batting are particularly fragile in the one-day format. It will be interesting to see how Swann performs against some of the nations more attuned to playing spin on turn-friendly wickets. But the vulnerability of the old dart comes as good news to South Africa who must beat the old enemy to make the semi-finals.
ICC Trophy form - West Indies
West Indies
Form since July:
Lost by 5 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 188 runs vs South Africa
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 52 runs vs Bangladesh
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Won by 8 wickets vs India
Lost by 20 runs vs India
Summary:
The West Indies are the sob story of world cricket and many would believe they’re lucky to be at the Champions Trophy tournament after a 3-0 loss at the hands of Bangladesh a couple of months ago. Unfortunately, their fate seems to lie in the hands of two men, Shiv Chanderpaul and Chris Gayle. If either of those reach 100, the side is in with a chance. But when opposition teams can get 388 against them, as South Africa did in one of the warm-up games, it doesn’t really matter how many their batsmen can muster.
The former world cricket power has won only 11 games and lost 34 since the last Champions Trophy – not good reading if you’re the least bit nostalgic about the days Holding, Garner, Roberts, Marshall and company terrified world batting lineups while Richards, Lloyd, Haynes, Greenidge and company blasted the runs.
Form since July:
Lost by 5 wickets vs Sri Lanka
Lost by 188 runs vs South Africa
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 3 wickets vs Bangladesh
Lost by 52 runs vs Bangladesh
Lost by 6 wickets vs India
Won by 8 wickets vs India
Lost by 20 runs vs India
Summary:
The West Indies are the sob story of world cricket and many would believe they’re lucky to be at the Champions Trophy tournament after a 3-0 loss at the hands of Bangladesh a couple of months ago. Unfortunately, their fate seems to lie in the hands of two men, Shiv Chanderpaul and Chris Gayle. If either of those reach 100, the side is in with a chance. But when opposition teams can get 388 against them, as South Africa did in one of the warm-up games, it doesn’t really matter how many their batsmen can muster.
The former world cricket power has won only 11 games and lost 34 since the last Champions Trophy – not good reading if you’re the least bit nostalgic about the days Holding, Garner, Roberts, Marshall and company terrified world batting lineups while Richards, Lloyd, Haynes, Greenidge and company blasted the runs.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
The bankroll begins
Well, follow me, share the ups and downs, laugh at me, whatever you like. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is by working a $100 bankroll.
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
Australian Idol form guide
What a difference a week makes in the world of reality television. And what a vast spread of odds for the Australian Idol market. There’s definite value if you reckon you’ve got it nailed.
For those who care to listen however, here’s a special. I have no allegiance to any site, but sportsbet.com.au is offering head to head betting, and Stan Walker is at $1.60 up against Sabrina Batshon.
Sabrina was in the bottom three last week and is rated by betfair.com.au as second favourite to be eliminated this week, while Stan heads all markets as favourite to win the competition.
Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but it’s a standout for mine. Take the $1.60.
In terms of betting for the winner, I can tell you that the only one punters want to be on is Scott Newnham, the brickie who hasn’t sung before. He has a terrific following and carries the underdog tag – a big advantage in a popularity contest. About 40 per cent of all money laid this week was for Scott.
Meanwhile, here’s the weekly form guide.
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $3; Centrebet $3.25; Betfair $3.05
For those who care to listen however, here’s a special. I have no allegiance to any site, but sportsbet.com.au is offering head to head betting, and Stan Walker is at $1.60 up against Sabrina Batshon.
Sabrina was in the bottom three last week and is rated by betfair.com.au as second favourite to be eliminated this week, while Stan heads all markets as favourite to win the competition.
Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but it’s a standout for mine. Take the $1.60.
In terms of betting for the winner, I can tell you that the only one punters want to be on is Scott Newnham, the brickie who hasn’t sung before. He has a terrific following and carries the underdog tag – a big advantage in a popularity contest. About 40 per cent of all money laid this week was for Scott.
Meanwhile, here’s the weekly form guide.
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $3; Centrebet $3.25; Betfair $3.05
For his voice and onstage presence alone, this guy deserves his favouritism. But as we all know, this is as much about popularity as it is about talent. And Stan's not the sharpest tool in the shed. It remains to be seen whether his personality can mature as much as his performance skills as the contest wears on. It would be a big surprise if he's not in the top four, and anything can happen from there.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7; Centrebet $6; Betfair $5.70
Latest figures on Betfair show that the agency holds about $7000 on Idol. About $3000 of that is for Scott Newnham, which makes the $7 on Sportsbet great value. His popularity as an honest brickie has bought him some time to listen to voice coaches and improve his raw talent. If he can learn and improve, he's a top chance.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $8; Betfair $7.20
At 18, he's the kid with the most potential. Timing will be everything for Nathan. If he becomes vulnerable to elimination and pulls out one of his Queen-type numbers, he'll go close to making the final weeks of the competition. Again, Centrebet's $8 is probably over the odds.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $6; Betfair $7.80
Her confidence is a great thing when she gets on stage, but it's also likely to be her worst enemy. People like a battler, and Kim is not necessarily seen in that light. Young people carry the most weight in terms of voting power, and likelihood is that teenage girls won't always see looks and attitude as a good thing. The odds at this point are very slim given her current standing and status in the competition.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $9; Centrebet $9; Betfair $8.60
The Queensland abbatoir worker from the bush is the dark horse. Her performance last week would have gained her a lot of fans and if she can continue to build, there's every chance she will progress further than many are thinking. Whether she can win, however, is another matter.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $6.50; Centrebet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
Betfair's odds of $9.40 are terrific on a girl who is warming herself to public appeal. Her honesty comes across and Aussies love a determined underdog, a tag which Hayley carries at this point. She will progress and is certainly one of the chances if she can improve her vocal skills to match her good-natured appeal.
Sabrina Batshon: Sportsbet $7.50; Centrebet $6; Betfair $9.40
Allow it to be repeated - this is a popularity contest as much as it is a talent quest. And Sabrina's cocky attitude wins her few fans. This showed last week when she narrowly avoided eviction. Unless she pulls out something extraordinary, chances are she has no more than two weeks left in the competition.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $10; Centrebet $11; Betfair $9.40
This kid doesn't have the same talent as some of the others, particularly Stan and Nathan. But don't count him out. The teen vote will stand him in good stead, and like a few of the others, his current fan base will buy him time. If he can improve his vocal skills, he's still not without a chance, but the odds are about right.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $16; Centrebet $21; Betfair $24
What a mixed bag in the betting for the teacher. As the only 30-year-old remaining in the group, he'll pick up a considerable portion of Casey's votes after he was eliminated last week. And his voice is already improving, as is his professionalism. The $24 isn't a bad bet, but it's worth watching how things progress over the next fortnight.
Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $26; Centrebet $17; Betfair $38
All that "soul man" stuff was an image disaster for this bloke, and it shows in the betting. But his performance two weeks ago won him plenty of support. Last week, however, he came back to reality with an ordinary showing, and it's likely he'll again be in the bottom three. It's a week-to-week prospect for Tim and it's unlikely he can win.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Brownlow medal form guide
Gary Ablett Jnr: $2.75
Clearly the favourite to take this year’s gong, Geelong’s Ablett achieved the second highest number of possessions of any player this season. His good games were fantastic, so expect him to poll a barrel-load of best-on-ground performances. But he did miss a few games, and early in the season, he will be out-polled by Steve Johnson and Paul Chapman. And remember, the Brownlow is a bit like the Melbourne Cup – the favourite rarely wins.
Dane Swan: $5
The Collingwood star will clearly be the best of the Magpies in the polling. He played out of his skin in the middle rounds and will be expected to make a late charge. But given some good tags in the last few rounds, he’ll need to be leading at the Round 20 point of polling to be any chance. Swan firmed into favouritism at the Round 19 mark of the season, and he polled well last year without being a stand-out star. It could be the same scenario again. Swan was the league’s leading possession getter for the season. Expect a bold showing, and perhaps well worth a punt to poll in the top three.
Adam Goodes: $8
Goodes has firmed as the season progressed. The good thing about him is that when he performs well, umpires tend to notice due to the spectacular nature of his play. He might only achieve about 20 possessions a game, but they’re usually memorable, and that’s what counts in the eyes of umpires. But it’s worth remembering that he didn’t poll in the top three players for the Swans’ best and fairest – not the same as attracting umpire votes, but a reasonable indicator that Ryan O’Keefe might have stolen some thunder from the two-time winner. Goodes is a crowd, and perhaps umpire, favourite.
Nick Dal Santo: $9
Consistent throughout St Kilda’s magic stretch, Dal Santo could be regarded a real chance, but if we work on the theory that the spectacular performances usually attract votes, it’s fair to suggest some points will go to Montagna and Reiwoldt. It’s unlikely for mine that he’ll win the medal, but should poll consistently throughout the night.
Chris Judd: $10
Judd is in real contention. When Judd performs well, it usually means his team wins, and that usually means he picks up best-on-ground. His side’s inconsistency will perhaps be his biggest enemy, but he starred in some of the Blues’ losses this season and could be assisted if umpires choose to give him a bundle of 2-point games. Judd is perhaps the best of the players in the second line of betting.
Joel Selwood: $11
Selwood backs up from rising star status in 2008 and again picked up a bag of possessions, particularly in games where Ablett was absent. But Chapman, Johnson and others have also had terrific games. If he was playing in a side without the Brownlow favourite, his chances would perhaps increase exponentially. Expect a bold showing, but not this year for mine.
Leigh Montagna: $12
The Saints follower has plenty of support, and many are regarding him as the best dark-horse chance. The question mark lies over whether he, Dal Santo or Reiwoldt will poll best for the Saints. Given that Goddard should also take some of the early-round votes, the fact that it’s been such a good team season might stand any of the Saints stars in bad stead if they share too many votes.
Nick Reiwoldt: $12
The Saints forward has clearly been the best impact player in the competition, and at these odds, there will be a few people keen to have a dabble on him winning the medal. The thing which stands Reiwoldt in good stead is that his great performances demand attention. And if it is regarded that he’s had eight or nine best-on-ground performances throughout the season, then he’ll be high on the list as the latter-round votes are tallied. Well worth taking a long, hard look.
Simon Black: $13
The Lions performed well above expectations this season, and the former Brownlow winner again starred with plenty of possessions. But unlike the year he won, they haven’t necessarily been game-breaking performances. And many of his possessions were hard-ball gets, which means stats came up as handballs. His voting success will largely depend on how the umpires see such stats and whether they regard his toughness warrants best-on-ground.
Matthew Boyd: $21
The entire Bulldogs team can be eliminated from contention for the Brownlow on the basis that their duties were so well shared throughout the year. Cooney wasn’t as spectacular this year in the midfield which meant Boyd will be noticed. But whether that’s enough to gain him the eight or so best-on-ground performances needed to win the medal will be another matter. The betting is a good guide with one thing in mind - votes from each game need to go to someone, which makes Boyd a dark horse given his team's success.
Brendon Goddard: $21
Goddard firmed towards mid-season as a real shot at the medal, but the Saints utility had a mixed bag. When he was good, he was best-on-ground. But in other games, it’s unlikely he’ll pick up many of the minor votes required to come out on top. Goddard’s votes are likely to be of nuisance value to more fancied Saints players, Dal Santo, Montagna and Reiwoldt.
Scott Thompson: $21
The Crows mid-fielder turned it on this season, but the $21 is a bit short for mine to consider. It’ll be a terrific race between he and Bernie Vince to see which Adelaide player polls best. Whether their consistency through the season was enough to put them near the top of the leaderboard remains to be seen.
Lenny Hayes: $41
Because Hayes plays for Saint Kilda – whose players will naturally poll well due to their season’s success – means he’s considered a chance in the betting. But don’t expect him to be in the top three. There are other far more fancied Saints’ chances.
Bernie Vince: $41
If you’re looking for a long shot to win the medal, Vince for mine is the one. While the betting indicates he won’t win, his season has been terrific, and he’s likely to poll well in Adelaide’s victories. Might be worth a lazy fiver to see him surprise and appear in the top three at the end of the night. But don’t point the finger in this direction if he doesn’t.
Jonathan Brown: $51
Brown starred in a couple of the Lions’ wins this season and there will be little doubt he’ll pick up some best-on-ground votes. But it’s unlikely that it’ll be enough to get him at the top of the leaderboard among other more fancied choices. In his favour is that, like Reiwoldt, he demands to be noticed when he performs well. His workrate this season will also stand him in good stead.
Marc Murphy: $67
Murphy has had a great season with plenty of the ball, but he’s a quiet achiever, unlike his skipper Judd who at times manages to pull out the spectacular. Rest assured, Murphy will poll, but unlikely with the consistency needed to win.
Daniel Rich: $101
The runaway rising star winner should get a few votes in his first season, but don’t expect him to make a miracle dash to the front of the Brownlow list.
Tips:
1. Ablett
2. Reiwoldt
3. Swan
If you’re looking for a second opinion, this is a good start:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnews/shadowing-charlie/2009/09/19/1253209042914.html
* Odds from centrebet.com
Clearly the favourite to take this year’s gong, Geelong’s Ablett achieved the second highest number of possessions of any player this season. His good games were fantastic, so expect him to poll a barrel-load of best-on-ground performances. But he did miss a few games, and early in the season, he will be out-polled by Steve Johnson and Paul Chapman. And remember, the Brownlow is a bit like the Melbourne Cup – the favourite rarely wins.
Dane Swan: $5
The Collingwood star will clearly be the best of the Magpies in the polling. He played out of his skin in the middle rounds and will be expected to make a late charge. But given some good tags in the last few rounds, he’ll need to be leading at the Round 20 point of polling to be any chance. Swan firmed into favouritism at the Round 19 mark of the season, and he polled well last year without being a stand-out star. It could be the same scenario again. Swan was the league’s leading possession getter for the season. Expect a bold showing, and perhaps well worth a punt to poll in the top three.
Adam Goodes: $8
Goodes has firmed as the season progressed. The good thing about him is that when he performs well, umpires tend to notice due to the spectacular nature of his play. He might only achieve about 20 possessions a game, but they’re usually memorable, and that’s what counts in the eyes of umpires. But it’s worth remembering that he didn’t poll in the top three players for the Swans’ best and fairest – not the same as attracting umpire votes, but a reasonable indicator that Ryan O’Keefe might have stolen some thunder from the two-time winner. Goodes is a crowd, and perhaps umpire, favourite.
Nick Dal Santo: $9
Consistent throughout St Kilda’s magic stretch, Dal Santo could be regarded a real chance, but if we work on the theory that the spectacular performances usually attract votes, it’s fair to suggest some points will go to Montagna and Reiwoldt. It’s unlikely for mine that he’ll win the medal, but should poll consistently throughout the night.
Chris Judd: $10
Judd is in real contention. When Judd performs well, it usually means his team wins, and that usually means he picks up best-on-ground. His side’s inconsistency will perhaps be his biggest enemy, but he starred in some of the Blues’ losses this season and could be assisted if umpires choose to give him a bundle of 2-point games. Judd is perhaps the best of the players in the second line of betting.
Joel Selwood: $11
Selwood backs up from rising star status in 2008 and again picked up a bag of possessions, particularly in games where Ablett was absent. But Chapman, Johnson and others have also had terrific games. If he was playing in a side without the Brownlow favourite, his chances would perhaps increase exponentially. Expect a bold showing, but not this year for mine.
Leigh Montagna: $12
The Saints follower has plenty of support, and many are regarding him as the best dark-horse chance. The question mark lies over whether he, Dal Santo or Reiwoldt will poll best for the Saints. Given that Goddard should also take some of the early-round votes, the fact that it’s been such a good team season might stand any of the Saints stars in bad stead if they share too many votes.
Nick Reiwoldt: $12
The Saints forward has clearly been the best impact player in the competition, and at these odds, there will be a few people keen to have a dabble on him winning the medal. The thing which stands Reiwoldt in good stead is that his great performances demand attention. And if it is regarded that he’s had eight or nine best-on-ground performances throughout the season, then he’ll be high on the list as the latter-round votes are tallied. Well worth taking a long, hard look.
Simon Black: $13
The Lions performed well above expectations this season, and the former Brownlow winner again starred with plenty of possessions. But unlike the year he won, they haven’t necessarily been game-breaking performances. And many of his possessions were hard-ball gets, which means stats came up as handballs. His voting success will largely depend on how the umpires see such stats and whether they regard his toughness warrants best-on-ground.
Matthew Boyd: $21
The entire Bulldogs team can be eliminated from contention for the Brownlow on the basis that their duties were so well shared throughout the year. Cooney wasn’t as spectacular this year in the midfield which meant Boyd will be noticed. But whether that’s enough to gain him the eight or so best-on-ground performances needed to win the medal will be another matter. The betting is a good guide with one thing in mind - votes from each game need to go to someone, which makes Boyd a dark horse given his team's success.
Brendon Goddard: $21
Goddard firmed towards mid-season as a real shot at the medal, but the Saints utility had a mixed bag. When he was good, he was best-on-ground. But in other games, it’s unlikely he’ll pick up many of the minor votes required to come out on top. Goddard’s votes are likely to be of nuisance value to more fancied Saints players, Dal Santo, Montagna and Reiwoldt.
Scott Thompson: $21
The Crows mid-fielder turned it on this season, but the $21 is a bit short for mine to consider. It’ll be a terrific race between he and Bernie Vince to see which Adelaide player polls best. Whether their consistency through the season was enough to put them near the top of the leaderboard remains to be seen.
Lenny Hayes: $41
Because Hayes plays for Saint Kilda – whose players will naturally poll well due to their season’s success – means he’s considered a chance in the betting. But don’t expect him to be in the top three. There are other far more fancied Saints’ chances.
Bernie Vince: $41
If you’re looking for a long shot to win the medal, Vince for mine is the one. While the betting indicates he won’t win, his season has been terrific, and he’s likely to poll well in Adelaide’s victories. Might be worth a lazy fiver to see him surprise and appear in the top three at the end of the night. But don’t point the finger in this direction if he doesn’t.
Jonathan Brown: $51
Brown starred in a couple of the Lions’ wins this season and there will be little doubt he’ll pick up some best-on-ground votes. But it’s unlikely that it’ll be enough to get him at the top of the leaderboard among other more fancied choices. In his favour is that, like Reiwoldt, he demands to be noticed when he performs well. His workrate this season will also stand him in good stead.
Marc Murphy: $67
Murphy has had a great season with plenty of the ball, but he’s a quiet achiever, unlike his skipper Judd who at times manages to pull out the spectacular. Rest assured, Murphy will poll, but unlikely with the consistency needed to win.
Daniel Rich: $101
The runaway rising star winner should get a few votes in his first season, but don’t expect him to make a miracle dash to the front of the Brownlow list.
Tips:
1. Ablett
2. Reiwoldt
3. Swan
If you’re looking for a second opinion, this is a good start:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnews/shadowing-charlie/2009/09/19/1253209042914.html
* Odds from centrebet.com
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Finding a good bookmaker
Righto, the challenge/experiment begins today.
I'm looking for a worthy online sports bookmaker who has the best deal for a $100 bankroll, and I'd be keen to hear suggestions.
The idea is that we lodge $100 and display each bet via this blog. That way, we can debate selections, celebrate wins, laugh together at losses and - most importantly - have a bit of fun.
All in all, I'll continue to knock in form guides, look for oddities, fluctuations and logical investments.
But first things first: Let's look at the bookies.
I've been with Sportsbet before, but don't like how difficult it is to cash out. Very easy to cash in, but when it comes to topping up the bank account, it's a bit like Fort Knox. I do, however, like their variety of bets - sports, entertainment, politics etc.
Centrebet seems to have some good racing options, but their choices are at times limited when it comes to sports.
Betfair, given that it allows punters to dictate the odds, seems to be one of the better options, but if anybody has any experience which indicates otherwise, please let me know.
TAB Sportsbet is okay, but the returns are woeful due to government regulations which dictate a 13% (or thereabouts) return for the State.
I'm looking for a worthy online sports bookmaker who has the best deal for a $100 bankroll, and I'd be keen to hear suggestions.
The idea is that we lodge $100 and display each bet via this blog. That way, we can debate selections, celebrate wins, laugh together at losses and - most importantly - have a bit of fun.
All in all, I'll continue to knock in form guides, look for oddities, fluctuations and logical investments.
But first things first: Let's look at the bookies.
I've been with Sportsbet before, but don't like how difficult it is to cash out. Very easy to cash in, but when it comes to topping up the bank account, it's a bit like Fort Knox. I do, however, like their variety of bets - sports, entertainment, politics etc.
Centrebet seems to have some good racing options, but their choices are at times limited when it comes to sports.
Betfair, given that it allows punters to dictate the odds, seems to be one of the better options, but if anybody has any experience which indicates otherwise, please let me know.
TAB Sportsbet is okay, but the returns are woeful due to government regulations which dictate a 13% (or thereabouts) return for the State.
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