1. Crystal Lily
2. Decision Time
3. More Strawberries
Beaten favourite: Military Rose.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Golden Slipper update
More Strawberries is badly drawn in the outside barrier, but it was my pick at $17. It is interesting to see that it's come in to $11 now and will need plenty of luck in running. If it gets that luck, however, it'll be hard to beat and has a terrific turn of speed.
Here's the latest from the bookmakers:
MONEY ARRIVES FOR CHANCE BYE AND SOLAR CHARGED
More Strawberries has been the best backed Slipper runner this week at Sportingbet Australia but the money has dried up with the prospect of a drier track.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money in the day prior to the Slipper had finally come for Solar Charged and Chance Bye.
“More Strawberries was backed solidly from $21 to $11 early in the week with breeding students keen on her heavy track prospects,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged and Chance Bye were both unlayable but with the track improving they’ve both been backed heavily in the last day.”
Solar Charged is in from $12 to $10, while Chance Bye has firmed from $13 to $10 with no money for either Brightexpectations or Hinchinbrook.
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Crystal Lily 5.50
Brightexpectations 6.50
Chance Bye 10.00
Solar Charged 10.00
More Strawberries 11.00
Beneteau 12.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Decision Time 26.00
Obsequious 34.00
Carved In Stone 51.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 71.00
Lohan 81.00
Here's the latest from the bookmakers:
MONEY ARRIVES FOR CHANCE BYE AND SOLAR CHARGED
More Strawberries has been the best backed Slipper runner this week at Sportingbet Australia but the money has dried up with the prospect of a drier track.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money in the day prior to the Slipper had finally come for Solar Charged and Chance Bye.
“More Strawberries was backed solidly from $21 to $11 early in the week with breeding students keen on her heavy track prospects,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged and Chance Bye were both unlayable but with the track improving they’ve both been backed heavily in the last day.”
Solar Charged is in from $12 to $10, while Chance Bye has firmed from $13 to $10 with no money for either Brightexpectations or Hinchinbrook.
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Crystal Lily 5.50
Brightexpectations 6.50
Chance Bye 10.00
Solar Charged 10.00
More Strawberries 11.00
Beneteau 12.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Decision Time 26.00
Obsequious 34.00
Carved In Stone 51.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 71.00
Lohan 81.00
Friday, April 2, 2010
AFL Adelaide vs Sydney preview
Sydney was terrific against the Saints last week on their home turf, but this week they travel away to Adelaide who were woeful against Fremantle. Expect Adelaide to improve considerably on their 157 possessions last week. Sydney was also low with 171, but have a high tackle count.
O'Keefe vs Vince vs Goodes
The temptation here is to look towards Vince and Goodes as the class midfielders, but O'Keefe's work-rate is a sign of his form - 123 points last week, including 18 kicks and 15 handballs, 7 tackles and a goal. Vince was poor with 22 touches (69 points) in a poor side and should lift. Goodes is an impact player and can do some freakish things, but he's not one to mount up extraordinary numbers of possessions due to his tag. He kicked three goals last week for 86 points (16 touches).
Tip: It's hard to argue against form, and O'Keefe's role on the ball should help him win this.
Thompson vs Edwards vs Bolton
Form here is tough. Expect Adelaide to lift its possession rate, and one person who should help do that is Tyson Edwards. His 99 points last week included 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 8 marks. Thompson played towards the forward line and kicked two goals, and racked up 23 possessions in his 85 points, while Bolton scored 94 (23 possessions) but was more inclined to handball (16).
Tip: Based on the theory that Adelaide needs to lift its workrate, we'll go with Edwards, but this trio is a tough call.
Goodwin vs Bock vs Rhyce Shaw
If we're to go purely on form, this trio is sadly out of form. Simon Goodwin scored 70 points from his 24 touches (17 handballs) last week, Bock had 17 touches, 3 goals and 3 tackles, and a goal for his 76 points, while Shaw was ordinary with 10 kicks and 10 handballs for 64 points. Shaw will normally take more than 5 marks at half back, so if he's more of a go-to man from the kickouts, that could improve his score. Just one tackle was a let-down for him.
Tip: I'm nervous to tip anyone here, but I'd expect the Swans to look for more run out of halfback from Shaw. On the larger ground, he should lift, but Goodwin's a real threat here.
O'Keefe vs Vince vs Goodes
The temptation here is to look towards Vince and Goodes as the class midfielders, but O'Keefe's work-rate is a sign of his form - 123 points last week, including 18 kicks and 15 handballs, 7 tackles and a goal. Vince was poor with 22 touches (69 points) in a poor side and should lift. Goodes is an impact player and can do some freakish things, but he's not one to mount up extraordinary numbers of possessions due to his tag. He kicked three goals last week for 86 points (16 touches).
Tip: It's hard to argue against form, and O'Keefe's role on the ball should help him win this.
Thompson vs Edwards vs Bolton
Form here is tough. Expect Adelaide to lift its possession rate, and one person who should help do that is Tyson Edwards. His 99 points last week included 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 8 marks. Thompson played towards the forward line and kicked two goals, and racked up 23 possessions in his 85 points, while Bolton scored 94 (23 possessions) but was more inclined to handball (16).
Tip: Based on the theory that Adelaide needs to lift its workrate, we'll go with Edwards, but this trio is a tough call.
Goodwin vs Bock vs Rhyce Shaw
If we're to go purely on form, this trio is sadly out of form. Simon Goodwin scored 70 points from his 24 touches (17 handballs) last week, Bock had 17 touches, 3 goals and 3 tackles, and a goal for his 76 points, while Shaw was ordinary with 10 kicks and 10 handballs for 64 points. Shaw will normally take more than 5 marks at half back, so if he's more of a go-to man from the kickouts, that could improve his score. Just one tackle was a let-down for him.
Tip: I'm nervous to tip anyone here, but I'd expect the Swans to look for more run out of halfback from Shaw. On the larger ground, he should lift, but Goodwin's a real threat here.
AFL West Coast vs Port Adelaide preview
This is a tough game to call, particularly given that West Coast will have the home ground advantage. Both put in decent performances last week, albeit in a fashion one could expect from round 1, ie a little scratchy.
Kane Cornes vs Priddis vs Cassisi
Cassisi's 19 touches and 5 tackles last week was okay (72 points), but Kane Cornes has been everywhere this year. His 131 points last week was made up of 16 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks and 5 tackles. He's prepared to make space, but equally willing to tough it out in the packs. Priddis had 11 kicks, 18 handballs, 3 marks and 4 tackles (95 points) and is a key for the Eagles, but the question will be whether he can out-run Kornes and whether he'll be more of a go-to man this week without Ben Cousins in the side.
Tip: Kornes should win this, but expect Priddis to score more than 100 points as he takes some of the ground left by Cousins.
Boak vs Adam Selwood vs Embley
This is tricky. Boak's 98 points was made up of 17 kicks and 6 tackles last week, but Selwood will be expected to lead the way for the Eagles in this contest. His 16 kicks and 15 handballs last week (108 points) was good, and his club will be hoping it's average by his standards. Embley plays more in the forward line and can be boosted with a goal or two, but he'd have to lift his tackle count to upset the other two.
Tip: On form and expectation, we'll go with Selwood to pip Boak in this one.
Banner vs Swift vs Natanui
The bookies have put the new boys together, and each of them performed okay last week. But Banner is the class outfit with 18 touches and notably 1 goal 3 behinds. His 79 points was average by his pre-season standards, so he has room to improve. Swift would have to improved considerably upon his 11 touches last week (32 points) and Natanui - while doing some outstanding things with the ball - is not one to rack up high fantasy numbers (54 last week, including 16 hitouts and a goal)
Tip: Banner is more inclined to be near the ball, and should get enough points here.
Kane Cornes vs Priddis vs Cassisi
Cassisi's 19 touches and 5 tackles last week was okay (72 points), but Kane Cornes has been everywhere this year. His 131 points last week was made up of 16 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks and 5 tackles. He's prepared to make space, but equally willing to tough it out in the packs. Priddis had 11 kicks, 18 handballs, 3 marks and 4 tackles (95 points) and is a key for the Eagles, but the question will be whether he can out-run Kornes and whether he'll be more of a go-to man this week without Ben Cousins in the side.
Tip: Kornes should win this, but expect Priddis to score more than 100 points as he takes some of the ground left by Cousins.
Boak vs Adam Selwood vs Embley
This is tricky. Boak's 98 points was made up of 17 kicks and 6 tackles last week, but Selwood will be expected to lead the way for the Eagles in this contest. His 16 kicks and 15 handballs last week (108 points) was good, and his club will be hoping it's average by his standards. Embley plays more in the forward line and can be boosted with a goal or two, but he'd have to lift his tackle count to upset the other two.
Tip: On form and expectation, we'll go with Selwood to pip Boak in this one.
Banner vs Swift vs Natanui
The bookies have put the new boys together, and each of them performed okay last week. But Banner is the class outfit with 18 touches and notably 1 goal 3 behinds. His 79 points was average by his pre-season standards, so he has room to improve. Swift would have to improved considerably upon his 11 touches last week (32 points) and Natanui - while doing some outstanding things with the ball - is not one to rack up high fantasy numbers (54 last week, including 16 hitouts and a goal)
Tip: Banner is more inclined to be near the ball, and should get enough points here.
AFL St Kilda vs North Melbourne preview
St Kilda should win this game, but that doesn't mean the Kangaroos' key forwards won't touch the ball. It'll be interesting to see whether the Saints put a hard tag on Liam Anthony.
Anthony vs Goddard vs Dal Santo
Anthony has been a ball magnet throughout the pre-season, and that form continued last week with 14 kicks, 12 handballs and 10 marks. Goddard is generally used as an impact player for the Saints, while Dal Santo's strength is the hard ball gets. Despite being on a losing side, Liam Anthony's fantasy score of 132 was well ahead of Goddard (88) and Dal Santo (77).
Tip: Liam Anthony is likely to be on a losing side, but his work-rate is outstanding. He should win this on form.
Montagna vs Riewoldt vs Hayes
This is a tough one. Montagna (100 points last week) is consistently the highest ball-winner for the Saints, while Riewoldt (111 points last week) will score high due to his leading and marking ability, combined with goal-kicking power - a bit like Jonathan Brown for Brisbane. Hayes (99 points last week) is consistent, but it would surprise if he was the leader of this contest.
Tip: The Saints spread the ball around a lot among their high class midfield. If Riewoldt can kick 6 goals, he should win this match-up.
Harvey vs Ray vs Armitage
Harvey consistently proves why he's a champion, and last week added three goals to his 23 possessions (16 kicks), driving his fantasy score to 93. Farren Ray plays a role for the Saints and can at times rack up plenty of possessions - 76 fantasy points last week was below par for him. David Armitage only managed 10 possessions and 49 fantasy points. He'd have to lift considerably to challenge the other two.
Tip: Harvey should have more time in the midfield which should help him rack up enough points to win, but expect Ray to lift.
Anthony vs Goddard vs Dal Santo
Anthony has been a ball magnet throughout the pre-season, and that form continued last week with 14 kicks, 12 handballs and 10 marks. Goddard is generally used as an impact player for the Saints, while Dal Santo's strength is the hard ball gets. Despite being on a losing side, Liam Anthony's fantasy score of 132 was well ahead of Goddard (88) and Dal Santo (77).
Tip: Liam Anthony is likely to be on a losing side, but his work-rate is outstanding. He should win this on form.
Montagna vs Riewoldt vs Hayes
This is a tough one. Montagna (100 points last week) is consistently the highest ball-winner for the Saints, while Riewoldt (111 points last week) will score high due to his leading and marking ability, combined with goal-kicking power - a bit like Jonathan Brown for Brisbane. Hayes (99 points last week) is consistent, but it would surprise if he was the leader of this contest.
Tip: The Saints spread the ball around a lot among their high class midfield. If Riewoldt can kick 6 goals, he should win this match-up.
Harvey vs Ray vs Armitage
Harvey consistently proves why he's a champion, and last week added three goals to his 23 possessions (16 kicks), driving his fantasy score to 93. Farren Ray plays a role for the Saints and can at times rack up plenty of possessions - 76 fantasy points last week was below par for him. David Armitage only managed 10 possessions and 49 fantasy points. He'd have to lift considerably to challenge the other two.
Tip: Harvey should have more time in the midfield which should help him rack up enough points to win, but expect Ray to lift.
Brisbane vs Carlton fantasy results
Winners: Jonathan Brown; Luke Power; Jarred Brennan
That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.
Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?
That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.
Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?
AFL Collingwood vs Melbourne preview
It's interesting to note that the bookies are unwilling to pit Melbourne players against the Melbourne boys, based on the theory that the Pies will well out-possess the Demons.
But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.
Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie
Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.
Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.
Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey
Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.
Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.
Swan vs Didak vs Davis
While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.
Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.
But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.
Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie
Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.
Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.
Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey
Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.
Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.
Swan vs Didak vs Davis
While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.
Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NRL bet of the round North Queensland vs Gold Coast
If you're looking for value, our pick of the round would have to be the Cowboys to overcome the Titans.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
AFL fantasy team scoring system
For those having a punt on the new Sportingbet fantasy challenge, the scoring system goes thus:
Kick 3 points
Handball 2 points
Mark 3 points
Tackle 4 points
Free Kick For 1 point
Free Kick Against 3 points
Hitout 1 point
Goal 6 points
Behind 1 point
Kick 3 points
Handball 2 points
Mark 3 points
Tackle 4 points
Free Kick For 1 point
Free Kick Against 3 points
Hitout 1 point
Goal 6 points
Behind 1 point
Brisbane vs Carlton preview and dream team predictions
Fantasy markets have been drawn for tonight’s Carlton vs Brisbane game in Brisbane. They’ve been cunningly presented by the bookmakers, but that’s the idea.
There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo
Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.
Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.
Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark
This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.
Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.
Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman
Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.
Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.
Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.
There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo
Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.
Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.
Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark
This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.
Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.
Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman
Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.
Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.
Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.
Racing tips
Here's a few tips which came through today from the watchers at TAB New South Wales. They're not usually far from the mark, so take them or leave them:
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Thursday 1st April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 3 - 6:55pm
No.6 - SEE YOU LATER BOYS
Saturday 3rd April
Rosehill Race 7 - 4:05pm
No.2 - HINCHINBROOK
Saturday 3rd April
Wentworth Park Race 8 - 10:15pm
No.2 - FANCY MANDY
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Thursday 1st April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 3 - 6:55pm
No.6 - SEE YOU LATER BOYS
Saturday 3rd April
Rosehill Race 7 - 4:05pm
No.2 - HINCHINBROOK
Saturday 3rd April
Wentworth Park Race 8 - 10:15pm
No.2 - FANCY MANDY
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tiger Woods action ... everybody wants a bit
Seems everyone wants a piece of Tiger Woods action.
Bookmakers in the UK are taking bets on whether Tiger will hit a tree with his first drive, or whether he'll kiss a blonde on the way to the tee. While this is an outrageous publicity stunt, there will be plenty of opportunities to increase the odds of winning for punters.
Sportingbet in Australia has some terrific exotics, including one which predicts how many birdies Tiger will hit (not how many females will be struck by his golf ball). 0-3 at $3+ isn't a bad option.
Tiger's at $1.08 to make the cut and $1.18 not to finish first.
Below is Victor Chandler's offer. We'll publish more as we hear of them:
Place a bet on the Outright Winner and if your selection fails to win, but finishes ahead of Tiger Woods Victor Chandler will refund your losing stake as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per player. Applies to win only bets and the win part of each-way bets. Applies to singles only, placed via telephone, internet or mobile. Does not apply to in-running bets. Applies to bets on outright market only placed from 30/03/10. Free bets credited 12/04/10.
Bookmakers in the UK are taking bets on whether Tiger will hit a tree with his first drive, or whether he'll kiss a blonde on the way to the tee. While this is an outrageous publicity stunt, there will be plenty of opportunities to increase the odds of winning for punters.
Sportingbet in Australia has some terrific exotics, including one which predicts how many birdies Tiger will hit (not how many females will be struck by his golf ball). 0-3 at $3+ isn't a bad option.
Tiger's at $1.08 to make the cut and $1.18 not to finish first.
Below is Victor Chandler's offer. We'll publish more as we hear of them:
Place a bet on the Outright Winner and if your selection fails to win, but finishes ahead of Tiger Woods Victor Chandler will refund your losing stake as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per player. Applies to win only bets and the win part of each-way bets. Applies to singles only, placed via telephone, internet or mobile. Does not apply to in-running bets. Applies to bets on outright market only placed from 30/03/10. Free bets credited 12/04/10.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Golden Slipper update
Before last weekend, we expected the market to bunch up somewhat, which seems to be happening after the barrier draw for the Golden Slipper.
We agree that Military Rose deserves to be favourite, but it is an unpredictable field and could be some value to be had.
From the statements from bookmakers below, punters seem to be looking for value.
More Strawberries jumped badly on Saturday and was caught wide for the majority of the race. The horse battled on gamely and hit the line well despite the unlucky run. That's where the value just might be.
LILY THE ONE TO BEAT IN SLIPPER
Following today's barrier draw, IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey says Crystal Lily is the horse to beat in the 2010 Golden Slipper.
"Crystal Lily ($6.00 into $5.00) is my pick for the Slipper," said IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey. "She's drawn perfectly and should be able to sit in behind the speed. She's a strong filly that will have plenty in hand at the finish and is the one to beat."
Twomey said Military Rose ($3.60) is a deserved favourite but may have a chink in his armour.
"He deserves to be favourite given what he has achieved, but second up after his Magic Millions campaign is a hard task and I think he is vulnerable," said Twomey"
"Brightexpectations ($7.50 into $6.00) also drew well and should get the run of the race."
Shaheeq and More Strawberries (both $15.00 out to $19.00) didn't fare as well in the draw and their odds drifted accordingly.
Market courtesy of IASbet.com
2010 Golden Slipper
$3.60 Military Rose
$5.00 Crystal Lily
$6.00 Brightexpectations
$11.00 Chance Bye
$15.00 Hichinbrook
$11.00 Bennetau
$15.00 Solar Charged
$21.00 Decision Time
$19.00 More Strawberries
$19.00 Shaheeq
$26.00 Obsequious
$51.00 Elimbari
$101.00 Georgette Silk
$51.00 Carved In Stone
$151.00 Lohan
PUNTERS WANT MORE STRAWBERRIES
Sportingbet Australia punters have not been deterred by the wide barrier or late rider change for More Strawberries with two punters backing the Gai Waterhouse filly to win $40,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said More Strawberries was the subject of all the final field Slipper action with her price tumbling in from $21 to $16.
“We wrote a bet of $2000 at $21 and the phone was hardly in the cradle before another punter outlaid $2500 at $19,” said Sullivan.
“While Military Rose is still our worst result, the early action suggests More Strawberries could shorten plenty before the betting’s all done.”
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Brightexpectations 5.00
Crystal Lily 5.50
Chance Bye 11.00
Solar Charged 12.00
Hinchinbrook 12.00
Beneteau 12.00
More Strawberries 16.00
Decision Time 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Obsequious 34.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 81.00
Carved In Stone 101.00
Lohan 151.00
We agree that Military Rose deserves to be favourite, but it is an unpredictable field and could be some value to be had.
From the statements from bookmakers below, punters seem to be looking for value.
More Strawberries jumped badly on Saturday and was caught wide for the majority of the race. The horse battled on gamely and hit the line well despite the unlucky run. That's where the value just might be.
LILY THE ONE TO BEAT IN SLIPPER
Following today's barrier draw, IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey says Crystal Lily is the horse to beat in the 2010 Golden Slipper.
"Crystal Lily ($6.00 into $5.00) is my pick for the Slipper," said IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey. "She's drawn perfectly and should be able to sit in behind the speed. She's a strong filly that will have plenty in hand at the finish and is the one to beat."
Twomey said Military Rose ($3.60) is a deserved favourite but may have a chink in his armour.
"He deserves to be favourite given what he has achieved, but second up after his Magic Millions campaign is a hard task and I think he is vulnerable," said Twomey"
"Brightexpectations ($7.50 into $6.00) also drew well and should get the run of the race."
Shaheeq and More Strawberries (both $15.00 out to $19.00) didn't fare as well in the draw and their odds drifted accordingly.
Market courtesy of IASbet.com
2010 Golden Slipper
$3.60 Military Rose
$5.00 Crystal Lily
$6.00 Brightexpectations
$11.00 Chance Bye
$15.00 Hichinbrook
$11.00 Bennetau
$15.00 Solar Charged
$21.00 Decision Time
$19.00 More Strawberries
$19.00 Shaheeq
$26.00 Obsequious
$51.00 Elimbari
$101.00 Georgette Silk
$51.00 Carved In Stone
$151.00 Lohan
PUNTERS WANT MORE STRAWBERRIES
Sportingbet Australia punters have not been deterred by the wide barrier or late rider change for More Strawberries with two punters backing the Gai Waterhouse filly to win $40,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said More Strawberries was the subject of all the final field Slipper action with her price tumbling in from $21 to $16.
“We wrote a bet of $2000 at $21 and the phone was hardly in the cradle before another punter outlaid $2500 at $19,” said Sullivan.
“While Military Rose is still our worst result, the early action suggests More Strawberries could shorten plenty before the betting’s all done.”
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Brightexpectations 5.00
Crystal Lily 5.50
Chance Bye 11.00
Solar Charged 12.00
Hinchinbrook 12.00
Beneteau 12.00
More Strawberries 16.00
Decision Time 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Obsequious 34.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 81.00
Carved In Stone 101.00
Lohan 151.00
Gold Logie contenders
On this blog, we often talk about the power of incumbency in elections. The same principle applies with the Gold Logie. Given that it's a public vote, they'll recognise Gibney's name from last year and lodge the vote.
After all, most of them are in it for the prize on offer as an incentive for voting.
My money's with Gibney for this one, as nice as it would be to see Alf get home.
WILL ALF GRAB THE GOLD FROM GIBNEY?
Rebecca Gibney is a heavily backed $1.70 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to take her second consecutive Gold Logie but punters are warming up to the chances of veteran Home and Away actor Ray Meagher.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said, while the big money had been for Gibney, there were plenty wanting to take the $4.50 on offer about Meagher.
“We’ve taken bets including $2000 at $1.90 on Rebecca Gibney but Ray Meagher seems to have all the momentum,” said Sullivan.
“There’s plenty of Alf Stewart fans prepared to put their money where their mouth is.”
Sullivan said Meagher would be favourite if the Gold Logie was industry rather than publicly decided.
“There’s little doubt that Meagher would be rewarded for his years of service if the industry decided this one,” Sullivan said.
“But this is a popularity contest and Rebecca Gibney has been arguably the most popular Australian actress in the past twenty years.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 1.70
Ray Meagher 4.50
Rove McManus 5.00
Adam Hills 8.00
Shaun Micallef 15.00
Will Anderson 26.00
Paul McDermott 34.00
Esther Anderson 41.00
After all, most of them are in it for the prize on offer as an incentive for voting.
My money's with Gibney for this one, as nice as it would be to see Alf get home.
WILL ALF GRAB THE GOLD FROM GIBNEY?
Rebecca Gibney is a heavily backed $1.70 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to take her second consecutive Gold Logie but punters are warming up to the chances of veteran Home and Away actor Ray Meagher.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said, while the big money had been for Gibney, there were plenty wanting to take the $4.50 on offer about Meagher.
“We’ve taken bets including $2000 at $1.90 on Rebecca Gibney but Ray Meagher seems to have all the momentum,” said Sullivan.
“There’s plenty of Alf Stewart fans prepared to put their money where their mouth is.”
Sullivan said Meagher would be favourite if the Gold Logie was industry rather than publicly decided.
“There’s little doubt that Meagher would be rewarded for his years of service if the industry decided this one,” Sullivan said.
“But this is a popularity contest and Rebecca Gibney has been arguably the most popular Australian actress in the past twenty years.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 1.70
Ray Meagher 4.50
Rove McManus 5.00
Adam Hills 8.00
Shaun Micallef 15.00
Will Anderson 26.00
Paul McDermott 34.00
Esther Anderson 41.00
AFL draft system gone wrong
A quick scan through the coming weekend's AFL match odds reveals that the Western Bulldogs are at $1.06 with Sportingbet against Richmond, while Collingwood are at a marginally healthier $1.07 to beat Melbourne.
While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.
Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.
Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.
To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.
A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.
I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!
While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.
Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.
Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.
To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.
A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.
I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!
Monday, March 29, 2010
Lionel Messi vs Wayne Rooney goals
This is the latest from Victor Chandler in the UK. It's an interesting market and I'm no genius on Premier League, but Messi is deserved favourite for mine.
Wording as released by the bookmaker is below:
There are two world class strikers on everyone’s lips at the moment, Wayne Rooney and Lionel Messi, and Victor Chandler have opened a market on which one will score the most goals in the Champions League from the Quarter Final stage onwards.
If both Man United and Barcelona get through to the Semi Finals they will avoid each other and many people consider them favourites to contest the Final in Madrid. Messi is the 11/10 favourite with VC and Rooney is 6/4, with the tie at 7/2.
“Rooney and Messi are a class apart at the moment, and their respective clubs will be looking to them to carry on scoring for the remainder of the tournament.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“It should be a fascinating contest to see who’ll bag the most goals.”
Rooney v Messi: Goal Match Bet from Q-Finals Onwards
Lionel Messi 11/10
Tie 7/2
Wayne Rooney 6/4
Wording as released by the bookmaker is below:
There are two world class strikers on everyone’s lips at the moment, Wayne Rooney and Lionel Messi, and Victor Chandler have opened a market on which one will score the most goals in the Champions League from the Quarter Final stage onwards.
If both Man United and Barcelona get through to the Semi Finals they will avoid each other and many people consider them favourites to contest the Final in Madrid. Messi is the 11/10 favourite with VC and Rooney is 6/4, with the tie at 7/2.
“Rooney and Messi are a class apart at the moment, and their respective clubs will be looking to them to carry on scoring for the remainder of the tournament.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“It should be a fascinating contest to see who’ll bag the most goals.”
Rooney v Messi: Goal Match Bet from Q-Finals Onwards
Lionel Messi 11/10
Tie 7/2
Wayne Rooney 6/4
BMW horse racing update
As readers of this blog will know, I'm not a big fan of futures betting. I think too many people take short odds too far out from the outcome. Consequently, their choice strikes injury, conditions change, form kicks in or out, lots of things can happen.
There is one situation when futures can work in a punter's favour, however, and that's when they spot a reasonable chance at long odds.
That's what has happened with the BMW. They see a reasonable chance of rain and take mud runners at 100-1. Sadly, the rest of us will now find the 20-1 a little short to worry about!
BIG MONEY FOR WET TRACKERS IN BMW
Punters have backed two long priced mudlarks for this Saturday’s BMW with big bets struck on both Harris Tweed and No Wine No Song at Sportingbet Australia.
Harris Tweed has been backed from $41 to $21 at Sportingbet while No Wine No Song has been the subject of a sustained move that has seen his price shorten up from $101 to $21 in the past week.
“We took bets of $44,000 to $1100 and $34,000 to $1000 each way on Harris Tweed this morning which certainly suggests he has done well since his last start second in New Zealand, “ Said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We laid a bet of $20,000 to $200 each way on No Wine No Song last week and he gradually shortened up to $26 where we took a bet of $50,000 to $2000 each way this morning.
“Both horses have won on heavy tracks so I am sure the punters will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in Sydney this week.”
Theseo is the current $3.20 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Speed Gifted at $6 and Daffodil at $8.00.
The BMW 2010 (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Theseo 3.20
Speed Gifted 6.00
Daffodil 8.00
Moatize 11.00
Littorio 13.00
Roman Emperor 15.00
Vigor 19.00
Purple 21.00
Harris Tweed 21.00
Divine Rebel 21.00
No Wine No Song 21.00
Others $26+
There is one situation when futures can work in a punter's favour, however, and that's when they spot a reasonable chance at long odds.
That's what has happened with the BMW. They see a reasonable chance of rain and take mud runners at 100-1. Sadly, the rest of us will now find the 20-1 a little short to worry about!
BIG MONEY FOR WET TRACKERS IN BMW
Punters have backed two long priced mudlarks for this Saturday’s BMW with big bets struck on both Harris Tweed and No Wine No Song at Sportingbet Australia.
Harris Tweed has been backed from $41 to $21 at Sportingbet while No Wine No Song has been the subject of a sustained move that has seen his price shorten up from $101 to $21 in the past week.
“We took bets of $44,000 to $1100 and $34,000 to $1000 each way on Harris Tweed this morning which certainly suggests he has done well since his last start second in New Zealand, “ Said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We laid a bet of $20,000 to $200 each way on No Wine No Song last week and he gradually shortened up to $26 where we took a bet of $50,000 to $2000 each way this morning.
“Both horses have won on heavy tracks so I am sure the punters will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in Sydney this week.”
Theseo is the current $3.20 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Speed Gifted at $6 and Daffodil at $8.00.
The BMW 2010 (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Theseo 3.20
Speed Gifted 6.00
Daffodil 8.00
Moatize 11.00
Littorio 13.00
Roman Emperor 15.00
Vigor 19.00
Purple 21.00
Harris Tweed 21.00
Divine Rebel 21.00
No Wine No Song 21.00
Others $26+
Collingwood premiership chances
Collingwood fans have reason to be excited after the weekend's clash against premiership favourites, the Western Bulldogs.
In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.
The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.
But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.
Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.
In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.
The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.
But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.
Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Australian Grand Prix results Melbourne
Anyone who picked Button to repeat his effort of last year would have netted a very nice 17-1.
Here are the final race positions:
1 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:33:36.531
2 Robert Kubica Renault 58 +12.0 secs
3 Felipe Massa Ferrari 58 +14.4 secs
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 58 +16.3 secs
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP 58 +16.6 secs
6 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 58 +29.8 secs
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 58 +59.8 secs
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 58 +60.5 secs
9 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 58 +67.3 secs
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP 58 +69.3 secs
11 Jaime Alguersuari STR-Ferrari 58 +71.3 secs
12 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 58 +74.0 secs
13 Heikki Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 56 +2 Laps
14 Karun Chandhok HRT-Cosworth 53 +5 Laps
Ret Timo Glock Virgin-Cosworth 41 +17 Laps
Ret Lucas di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 26 +32 Laps
Ret Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 25 +33 Laps
Ret Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 9 Engine
Ret Vitaly Petrov Renault 9 +49 Laps
Ret Bruno Senna HRT-Cosworth 4 +54 Laps
Ret Sebastien Buemi STR-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 0 Accident
Ret Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Jarno Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 0 Hydraulics
Here are the final race positions:
1 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:33:36.531
2 Robert Kubica Renault 58 +12.0 secs
3 Felipe Massa Ferrari 58 +14.4 secs
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 58 +16.3 secs
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP 58 +16.6 secs
6 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 58 +29.8 secs
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 58 +59.8 secs
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 58 +60.5 secs
9 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 58 +67.3 secs
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP 58 +69.3 secs
11 Jaime Alguersuari STR-Ferrari 58 +71.3 secs
12 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 58 +74.0 secs
13 Heikki Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 56 +2 Laps
14 Karun Chandhok HRT-Cosworth 53 +5 Laps
Ret Timo Glock Virgin-Cosworth 41 +17 Laps
Ret Lucas di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 26 +32 Laps
Ret Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 25 +33 Laps
Ret Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 9 Engine
Ret Vitaly Petrov Renault 9 +49 Laps
Ret Bruno Senna HRT-Cosworth 4 +54 Laps
Ret Sebastien Buemi STR-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 0 Accident
Ret Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Jarno Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 0 Hydraulics
Fantasy team punting
A number of people I've spoken to recently say they don't have time to get involved with Fantasy Leagues and competitions. And where there's no return, I can't blame them - actually, I'm in exactly the same boat.
But I've been sucked in by Sportingbet's innovation for this year's footy season. It works the same way as a 3-ball in golf betting, that is three players are pitted head to head. Their performance on the field dictates how many points they get.
And put simply, the player with the most fantasy points at the end of the game is declared the winner.
It's three points for a kick, two points for a handball, four for a tackle etc. Anyway, I'll be giving an analysis of some of the markets over the next couple of weeks.
I've found that it's a great way to watch the game. Regardless of the result, your player is still in the contest until the end. It's great fun and an added interest in the game. There are also opportunities to make some real money as most picks are around the $2.50-$2.80 mark.
We'll discuss a few AFL options as markets are posted towards the middle of the week.
Until then, if you want to put a few dollars into an account with Sportingbet and have a look at what the whole Fantasy betting is all about, do it here.
But I've been sucked in by Sportingbet's innovation for this year's footy season. It works the same way as a 3-ball in golf betting, that is three players are pitted head to head. Their performance on the field dictates how many points they get.
And put simply, the player with the most fantasy points at the end of the game is declared the winner.
It's three points for a kick, two points for a handball, four for a tackle etc. Anyway, I'll be giving an analysis of some of the markets over the next couple of weeks.
I've found that it's a great way to watch the game. Regardless of the result, your player is still in the contest until the end. It's great fun and an added interest in the game. There are also opportunities to make some real money as most picks are around the $2.50-$2.80 mark.
We'll discuss a few AFL options as markets are posted towards the middle of the week.
Until then, if you want to put a few dollars into an account with Sportingbet and have a look at what the whole Fantasy betting is all about, do it here.
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