The odds of Bart Cummings winning a seventh Caulfield Cup have shortened dramatically in the last 24 hours as punters have backed all three of his chances at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Toorak winner Allez Wonder had shortened from $14 to $11 as big money arrived while Viewed and Roman Emperor had also been well backed.
“Allez Wonder has attracted the bulk of support including one bet of $130,000 to $10,000,” said Sullivan.
“But there’s also been good money for both Viewed and Roman Emperor at double figure odds.
“Bart is the Cups king and punters think can break his Caulfield Cup drought tomorrow.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering a market on whether or not either Anthony or Bart Cummings will supply a placegetter with punters backing the yes option in from $2.00 into $1.90.
“It may be a dozen years since the Cummings name has figured on the honour roll of placegetters but punters are certainly confident that between them they can end the drought this year,” Sullivan said.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Randwick longshot well backed
Punters have sensationally backed former South African galloper Seventh Rock to win tomorrow’s Lightning Handicap at Randwick.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some spirited betting had forced the price of the entire from $61 to $21.
“We had one punter back it to win $10,000 as soon as markets opened and it’s been a steady stream since.”
“While the horse may have been disappointing since hitting our shores, there was merit in his last run and reports are strong that David Payne has turned this bloke around.”
The Alan Denham trained Youthful Jack is Sportingbet Australia’s Lightning Handicap favourite at $3.50.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some spirited betting had forced the price of the entire from $61 to $21.
“We had one punter back it to win $10,000 as soon as markets opened and it’s been a steady stream since.”
“While the horse may have been disappointing since hitting our shores, there was merit in his last run and reports are strong that David Payne has turned this bloke around.”
The Alan Denham trained Youthful Jack is Sportingbet Australia’s Lightning Handicap favourite at $3.50.
Haydn Lane this week's guest tipster
IASbet public relations manager Haydn Lane might be best known for having his finger on the pulse in AFL circles.
And he's certainly promised to share some winners with aussiepunt readers when next season rolls around.
Haydn's also a pretty handy cricketer, having spent a season batting and tweaking off-spinners at Middlesex, and another as Boston Cricket Club's overseas pro in the Lincolnshire Premier League. Locally, he plays for Melbourne CC and has trained with the Victorian squad.
But that's all behind us. What is more to the point is that we happen to know Haydn has some pretty good connections with the nags. He's owned a few and will no doubt be seen burrowing around Caulfield tomorrow.
He knows he's under immense pressure this week, following in the footsteps of three Friday guest tipsters who've each put us in the black.
"I'll have to do some digging then," he said, perhaps a little nervously. And dig he did, hassling a few of the racing gurus in the betting pit.
Here's Haydn's three picks for the weekend:
Caulfield, Race 4: Number 2, Shamoline Warrior (currently paying $3.60).
Caulfield, Race 9: Number 4, First Command (currently paying $3.40).
Haydn says he's very keen on this one.
Australian Moto GP: Jorge Lorenzo (currently at $3)
Haydn says to back Lorenzo straight out as he's been in super form. That advice comes despite Casey Stoner's return from injury.
As always, we'll be riding with our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll (now at $260) on each of Haydn's selections. At those odds, we'll be taking the horses to cross the line first.
If you're looking for an each way punt on the Caulfield Cup, Haydn suggests Viewed each way at $14 is worth a shot, and Master O'Reilly to run a big race from a wide barrier.
And he's certainly promised to share some winners with aussiepunt readers when next season rolls around.
Haydn's also a pretty handy cricketer, having spent a season batting and tweaking off-spinners at Middlesex, and another as Boston Cricket Club's overseas pro in the Lincolnshire Premier League. Locally, he plays for Melbourne CC and has trained with the Victorian squad.
But that's all behind us. What is more to the point is that we happen to know Haydn has some pretty good connections with the nags. He's owned a few and will no doubt be seen burrowing around Caulfield tomorrow.
He knows he's under immense pressure this week, following in the footsteps of three Friday guest tipsters who've each put us in the black.
"I'll have to do some digging then," he said, perhaps a little nervously. And dig he did, hassling a few of the racing gurus in the betting pit.
Here's Haydn's three picks for the weekend:
Caulfield, Race 4: Number 2, Shamoline Warrior (currently paying $3.60).
Caulfield, Race 9: Number 4, First Command (currently paying $3.40).
Haydn says he's very keen on this one.
Australian Moto GP: Jorge Lorenzo (currently at $3)
Haydn says to back Lorenzo straight out as he's been in super form. That advice comes despite Casey Stoner's return from injury.
As always, we'll be riding with our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll (now at $260) on each of Haydn's selections. At those odds, we'll be taking the horses to cross the line first.
If you're looking for an each way punt on the Caulfield Cup, Haydn suggests Viewed each way at $14 is worth a shot, and Master O'Reilly to run a big race from a wide barrier.
Daffodil a serious Caulfield Cup hope
Following is an unedited statement released by IASbet this morning. This isn't our Friday guest tipster spot, but might well be worth a serious look:
While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.
"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.
"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.
"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."
Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.
From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.
For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.
No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.
However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.
"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."
While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.
"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.
"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.
"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."
Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.
From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.
For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.
No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.
However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.
"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Cima de Triomphe gets Caulfield Cup support
Just as we release a report that punters are going for Kirklees, Centrebet puts out a release saying Cima de Triomphe has claims.
Here's the release:
Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!
The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.
Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.
Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.
“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.
The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.
The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.
One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.
And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.
Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.
CAULFIELD CUP
$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)
Here's the release:
Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!
The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.
Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.
Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.
“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.
The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.
The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.
One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.
And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.
Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.
CAULFIELD CUP
$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)
Latest Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets
Kirklees trainers were last night gloating about their horse's chances in the Caulfield Cup, particularly when they got a favourable barrier draw.
The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:
KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS
European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.
“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.
“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”
Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.
2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00
2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:
KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS
European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.
“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.
“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”
Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.
2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00
2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
November 9 WSOP final table form guide
World Series of Poker
November 9 final table
Not too many bookies are taking odds on the WSOP final table as yet, but there's plenty of interest in those who are. And it's an interesting mix of chip counts and personalities who will mix it up for the $8.5 million first prize.
Here's our assessments:
Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips)
Sportsbet $3.50; Luxbet $3.80; Betway $3.75
The 45-year-old logging company owner is remarkably one of the oldest at the final table. He is also massive chip leader which is the primary reason for his favouritism. He has more than a quarter of all chips at the table, and has been proud of the fact that he hasn’t yet had to commit all his chips to a showdown. That's right. Not one all in bet in eight days of play.
Despite playing poker at the young age of 12 with his grandfather, Moon only discovered Texas holdem three years ago, which many would see as a disadvantage under the pressure of a final table, television lights, crowds and all that goes with it.
He made the main event after entering a $130 buy in tournament at Wheeling, West Virginia. Not a bad investment for someone who wanted to play poker to help raise money for local fire halls and other charities.
He puts his success so far down to “good cards” … a humble assessment.
Not only will Moon start the bookie’s favourite. He will also take some sentimental support with him into the final days of play. He is certainly well placed.
Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $4.75; Luxbet $5.25; Betway $5
The 29-year-old New Yorker has been a professional poker player for the best part of nine years and goes into the final in a terrific position, albeit more than 20 million behind the chip leader.
Buchman is familiar with big tournament environments, having won the 2004 New England Poker Classic, and run second in three WSOP bracelet events. But therein lies the worry for punters. Buchman seems to have trouble finishing off the job. He's also had 10 WSOP cashes.
Without progressing further, the final table will be the biggest earnings of his career, more than doubling his $900,000 or so earnings on the tour so far.
Buchman had his moment of luck on day 7 when he risked all his chips with A-10 of hearts against pocket jacks. He hit the flush to double up to 6 million chips.
Buchman is an accomplished player, but will a line of runners up finishes come back to haunt him if he finds himself heads up?
Phil Ivey (9,765,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $6
This is where the quality of the player and the number of chips starts to mess with punters' heads. Phil Ivey is regarded by most as the best poker player in the world. But he sits 7th in chip stack at the start of the final table, which is something which does not necessarily suit his aggressive style of play.
If anyone can change up to suit the conditions, it's Ivey, and that's why there is money for him to win the event from well behind.
Ivey has seven WSOP bracelets already to his name, and if he's in the final three - regardless of chip stack - you'd back him to win.
All others at the final table will fear his presence, and they will be aware of his uncanny ability to read his opposition.
But chip stack is a worry and even a player of his supreme calibre will need a little luck from where he sits.
Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6; Betway $7
As senior principal of investment broker Flexpoint Ford, this New Yorker has premium business pedigree. And he'll start the final table with a healthy chip stack, plenty of confidence, and a crowd of support behind him.
Like Buchman, his moment of luck came on day 7 when he pushed all in with A-Q against pocket kings. The ace hit on the turn which led to a 10 million chip swing.
Remarkably, Begleiter won his seat in a home game, which means he'll be splitting his winnings with friends of that game. They'll each pocket a percentage of the winnings, and will likely be a vocal part of the crowd at the main event finish.
He's already made his way through 6485 opponents to make the final table, and if business acumen can be applied to poker, he'll be a genuine chance.
But the question mark here is whether brains can overcome street smarts when it comes to buckling in to pressure poker. After all, we're essentially talking about a home game player.
With that in mind, even the 7-1 at Betway is a little tight, regardless of Begleiter's chip stack.
Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips)
Sportsbet $7; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $7
The CardPlayer Magazine editor, 34, has a point to prove, and if determination to win the World Series counts for anything, Shulman will be right up there in the finish.
Opposition magazine Bluff was given the rights to sponsor the event, and Shulman has voiced his "lack of respect" for the WSOP management "and what they've done to all of the players". He has said he might throw away his bracelet if he wins the event. Them's fighting words!
They say there's no place for anger at the poker table, but Shulman is a seasoned professional, having already made a final table in 2000 when he cashed in for $146,000. It's nothing like the $1.2 million guaranteed for ninth place finish at this year's event, but the experience will count when it comes to coping with final table pressure.
Further in his favour, Phil Hellmuth is coaching Shulman in the months leading up to the event, no doubt pocketing a percentage of the winnings for his services.
However, Shulman's experience is below that of Buchman, career earnings of about $400,000 well below Buchman, and his starting chip stack about 10 million below Buchman.
While "justice" might be his objective, the odds are perhaps a little under where they should be.
Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $15; Betway $13
From Coral Springs, Florida, this 51-year-old man is a value bet at the final table. At $17, we only need to look at his recent form which have led to his $640,000+ in poker earnings to believe he is a chance to win.
Schaffel is yet to win a bracelet, but he's come close, finishing second in the Legends of Poker event in August this year.
The father of two sits in sixth spot and has some nasty opposition to leapfrog.
Like all those around him, he'll need some luck. But the odds are not indicative of his pedigree as a poker player.
Joe Cada (13,215,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $12; Betway $13
The youngest man in the field aims to repeat the efforts of another 21-year-old Peter Eastgate. What would be the chances of that? Two 21-year-olds in successive years, both breaking a record Phil Hellmuth held for 24 years as the youngest ever world champion.
Cada cashed twice in tournaments leading up to the main event and has proven an established young player.
He sits neatly in the middle of the pack and could make his mark on the chip leaders with a little luck on the first day of the final table.
He's already showed during the tournament that he's happy to be aggressive, re-raising Phil Ivey and causing him to fold several times before the final table.
He won't be scared off and could have been even better placed if his aces hadn't been cracked by 10s on Day 8. Cada is a wildcard and might be worth a gentle punt at the odds of $17.
James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $21
In terms of recent form, the 26-year-old British poker professional is perhaps the most highly credentialled at the table. But his chip stack is the problem. He starts November 9 in 9th place and will need some luck in the running to make good from there.
But in percentage terms, he's not much worse off than anybody up to double his own chip stack, but the danger lies in that an all-in bet against anybody else at the table puts his tournament life at risk.
He finished 4th in the 2008 UK Open, came runner up in the same year at a WSOP bracelet event and in 2007 won a $1000 buy in event during the Bellagio Cup. He is sponsored and, winnings included, very well paid.
If he had twice the chips, he'd be half his current odds. In poker terms, that's just one fortunate hand away.
He might not win the event, but he's one player who is priced over the odds.
Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $19
The Frenchman is the second European at the table and the rank outsider to win the event. He is similarly short-stacked alongside Phil Ivey and will need some luck to get himself back into the tournament.
But he's showed his final table appearance is more than luck with a final table appearance in the Europe Main Event earlier this month.
He played to the left of Ivey for the last three days of the WSOP main event, so position won't worry him. Saout has only been playing poker for about 18 months, so it is no wonder punters are doubting his ability to bust through far more experienced opponents.
November 9 final table
Not too many bookies are taking odds on the WSOP final table as yet, but there's plenty of interest in those who are. And it's an interesting mix of chip counts and personalities who will mix it up for the $8.5 million first prize.
Here's our assessments:
Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips)
Sportsbet $3.50; Luxbet $3.80; Betway $3.75
The 45-year-old logging company owner is remarkably one of the oldest at the final table. He is also massive chip leader which is the primary reason for his favouritism. He has more than a quarter of all chips at the table, and has been proud of the fact that he hasn’t yet had to commit all his chips to a showdown. That's right. Not one all in bet in eight days of play.
Despite playing poker at the young age of 12 with his grandfather, Moon only discovered Texas holdem three years ago, which many would see as a disadvantage under the pressure of a final table, television lights, crowds and all that goes with it.
He made the main event after entering a $130 buy in tournament at Wheeling, West Virginia. Not a bad investment for someone who wanted to play poker to help raise money for local fire halls and other charities.
He puts his success so far down to “good cards” … a humble assessment.
Not only will Moon start the bookie’s favourite. He will also take some sentimental support with him into the final days of play. He is certainly well placed.
Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $4.75; Luxbet $5.25; Betway $5
The 29-year-old New Yorker has been a professional poker player for the best part of nine years and goes into the final in a terrific position, albeit more than 20 million behind the chip leader.
Buchman is familiar with big tournament environments, having won the 2004 New England Poker Classic, and run second in three WSOP bracelet events. But therein lies the worry for punters. Buchman seems to have trouble finishing off the job. He's also had 10 WSOP cashes.
Without progressing further, the final table will be the biggest earnings of his career, more than doubling his $900,000 or so earnings on the tour so far.
Buchman had his moment of luck on day 7 when he risked all his chips with A-10 of hearts against pocket jacks. He hit the flush to double up to 6 million chips.
Buchman is an accomplished player, but will a line of runners up finishes come back to haunt him if he finds himself heads up?
Phil Ivey (9,765,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $6
This is where the quality of the player and the number of chips starts to mess with punters' heads. Phil Ivey is regarded by most as the best poker player in the world. But he sits 7th in chip stack at the start of the final table, which is something which does not necessarily suit his aggressive style of play.
If anyone can change up to suit the conditions, it's Ivey, and that's why there is money for him to win the event from well behind.
Ivey has seven WSOP bracelets already to his name, and if he's in the final three - regardless of chip stack - you'd back him to win.
All others at the final table will fear his presence, and they will be aware of his uncanny ability to read his opposition.
But chip stack is a worry and even a player of his supreme calibre will need a little luck from where he sits.
Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6; Betway $7
As senior principal of investment broker Flexpoint Ford, this New Yorker has premium business pedigree. And he'll start the final table with a healthy chip stack, plenty of confidence, and a crowd of support behind him.
Like Buchman, his moment of luck came on day 7 when he pushed all in with A-Q against pocket kings. The ace hit on the turn which led to a 10 million chip swing.
Remarkably, Begleiter won his seat in a home game, which means he'll be splitting his winnings with friends of that game. They'll each pocket a percentage of the winnings, and will likely be a vocal part of the crowd at the main event finish.
He's already made his way through 6485 opponents to make the final table, and if business acumen can be applied to poker, he'll be a genuine chance.
But the question mark here is whether brains can overcome street smarts when it comes to buckling in to pressure poker. After all, we're essentially talking about a home game player.
With that in mind, even the 7-1 at Betway is a little tight, regardless of Begleiter's chip stack.
Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips)
Sportsbet $7; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $7
The CardPlayer Magazine editor, 34, has a point to prove, and if determination to win the World Series counts for anything, Shulman will be right up there in the finish.
Opposition magazine Bluff was given the rights to sponsor the event, and Shulman has voiced his "lack of respect" for the WSOP management "and what they've done to all of the players". He has said he might throw away his bracelet if he wins the event. Them's fighting words!
They say there's no place for anger at the poker table, but Shulman is a seasoned professional, having already made a final table in 2000 when he cashed in for $146,000. It's nothing like the $1.2 million guaranteed for ninth place finish at this year's event, but the experience will count when it comes to coping with final table pressure.
Further in his favour, Phil Hellmuth is coaching Shulman in the months leading up to the event, no doubt pocketing a percentage of the winnings for his services.
However, Shulman's experience is below that of Buchman, career earnings of about $400,000 well below Buchman, and his starting chip stack about 10 million below Buchman.
While "justice" might be his objective, the odds are perhaps a little under where they should be.
Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $15; Betway $13
From Coral Springs, Florida, this 51-year-old man is a value bet at the final table. At $17, we only need to look at his recent form which have led to his $640,000+ in poker earnings to believe he is a chance to win.
Schaffel is yet to win a bracelet, but he's come close, finishing second in the Legends of Poker event in August this year.
The father of two sits in sixth spot and has some nasty opposition to leapfrog.
Like all those around him, he'll need some luck. But the odds are not indicative of his pedigree as a poker player.
Joe Cada (13,215,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $12; Betway $13
The youngest man in the field aims to repeat the efforts of another 21-year-old Peter Eastgate. What would be the chances of that? Two 21-year-olds in successive years, both breaking a record Phil Hellmuth held for 24 years as the youngest ever world champion.
Cada cashed twice in tournaments leading up to the main event and has proven an established young player.
He sits neatly in the middle of the pack and could make his mark on the chip leaders with a little luck on the first day of the final table.
He's already showed during the tournament that he's happy to be aggressive, re-raising Phil Ivey and causing him to fold several times before the final table.
He won't be scared off and could have been even better placed if his aces hadn't been cracked by 10s on Day 8. Cada is a wildcard and might be worth a gentle punt at the odds of $17.
James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $21
In terms of recent form, the 26-year-old British poker professional is perhaps the most highly credentialled at the table. But his chip stack is the problem. He starts November 9 in 9th place and will need some luck in the running to make good from there.
But in percentage terms, he's not much worse off than anybody up to double his own chip stack, but the danger lies in that an all-in bet against anybody else at the table puts his tournament life at risk.
He finished 4th in the 2008 UK Open, came runner up in the same year at a WSOP bracelet event and in 2007 won a $1000 buy in event during the Bellagio Cup. He is sponsored and, winnings included, very well paid.
If he had twice the chips, he'd be half his current odds. In poker terms, that's just one fortunate hand away.
He might not win the event, but he's one player who is priced over the odds.
Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $19
The Frenchman is the second European at the table and the rank outsider to win the event. He is similarly short-stacked alongside Phil Ivey and will need some luck to get himself back into the tournament.
But he's showed his final table appearance is more than luck with a final table appearance in the Europe Main Event earlier this month.
He played to the left of Ivey for the last three days of the WSOP main event, so position won't worry him. Saout has only been playing poker for about 18 months, so it is no wonder punters are doubting his ability to bust through far more experienced opponents.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Whobegotyou firms after Maldivian ruled out of Cox Plate
Below is a media statement released today by Sportingbet Australia:
WHOBEGOTYOU FIRMS AS MALDIVIAN RULED OUT
The Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou has firmed into $2.50 to win the Cox Plate following the news that stablemate Maldivian has been ruled out of the remainder of the Spring Carnival.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Maldivian looked to be Whobegotyou’s biggest rival.
“Whobegotyou has shortened from $3.00 to $2.60 following the news of Maldivian’s unfortunate injury,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegotyou is short enough a couple of weeks out from the race and we will be looking to lay him now despite his tremendous record at the Valley.
“But punters were already considering it a match race and there don’t look to many challenges to Whobegotyou as the heir to the title of Australia’s weight for age champion.”
2009 COX PLATE – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 2.60
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
El Segundo 10.00
Predatory Pricer 10.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Black Piranha 17.00
Efficient 19.00
So You Think 21.00
Zipping 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
Red Ruler 31.00
Viewed 35.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Kirklees 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Cest La Guerre 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 51.00
Extra Zero 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Roman Emperor 81.00
Zarita 81.00
Trusting 81.00
Gallica 151.00
Sarrera 151.00
Magical Pearl 151.00
Chasm 251.00
Mentality 301.00
Douro Valley 301.00
Prima Nova 301.00
Sir Slick 301.00
Sound Of Nature 301.00
WHOBEGOTYOU FIRMS AS MALDIVIAN RULED OUT
The Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou has firmed into $2.50 to win the Cox Plate following the news that stablemate Maldivian has been ruled out of the remainder of the Spring Carnival.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Maldivian looked to be Whobegotyou’s biggest rival.
“Whobegotyou has shortened from $3.00 to $2.60 following the news of Maldivian’s unfortunate injury,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegotyou is short enough a couple of weeks out from the race and we will be looking to lay him now despite his tremendous record at the Valley.
“But punters were already considering it a match race and there don’t look to many challenges to Whobegotyou as the heir to the title of Australia’s weight for age champion.”
2009 COX PLATE – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 2.60
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
El Segundo 10.00
Predatory Pricer 10.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Black Piranha 17.00
Efficient 19.00
So You Think 21.00
Zipping 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
Red Ruler 31.00
Viewed 35.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Kirklees 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Cest La Guerre 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 51.00
Extra Zero 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Roman Emperor 81.00
Zarita 81.00
Trusting 81.00
Gallica 151.00
Sarrera 151.00
Magical Pearl 151.00
Chasm 251.00
Mentality 301.00
Douro Valley 301.00
Prima Nova 301.00
Sir Slick 301.00
Sound Of Nature 301.00
WA favoured in Sheffield Shield opener
We'll be backing Western Australia to get more points against Queensland in today's opening Sheffield Shield cricket encounter.
Queensland's bowling attack seems to lack depth, and batting has at times seemed fragile. James Hopes out of the side will be a huge loss.
Western Australia however is stacked with Australian fringe players including Adam Voges, Sean Marsh and captain Marcus North. Former Bull Ashley Noffke is a huge bonus and with Magoffin and Dorey should be able to bowl the Bulls out twice.
The $1.50 on WA for mine is worth taking and we'll be putting 10% of our bankroll on that result.
Queensland's bowling attack seems to lack depth, and batting has at times seemed fragile. James Hopes out of the side will be a huge loss.
Western Australia however is stacked with Australian fringe players including Adam Voges, Sean Marsh and captain Marcus North. Former Bull Ashley Noffke is a huge bonus and with Magoffin and Dorey should be able to bowl the Bulls out twice.
The $1.50 on WA for mine is worth taking and we'll be putting 10% of our bankroll on that result.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Guest tipster comes good three weeks running
The Aussiepunt bankroll took yet another boost at the weekend thanks to the tips of our guest punter.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan's tips didn't have quite the same impact as those of Matt Campbell and Grant Stockwell before him, but a win's a win and we'll take 16% into the black any day.
Let's take a quick look back at his tips:
It was a bad start with Marquardt in the third at Caulfield. With Bowman on board and a good record starting fresh, the Kiwi galloper came in sharply in the dying minutes before the race, starting second favourite. But racing three and four wide for most of the race, there was no gas in the tank for the finish we needed. No joy for punters there.
Tootsie in the ninth, however, was every chance. Had it not been for the late charge from a 30-1 shot, we'd have been more in the money. But $2.70 for a place meant we weren't in a total disaster area.
A draw in the soccer saved our bacon. Here's a reminder of what Sullivan said: "The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents."
"Hold out" is the key part of this phrase. We were lucky, but we'll take it all the same.
With the Spring Carnival heating up, we'll try to keep you up with market movements, particularly for the Caulfield Cup, as the week progresses.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan's tips didn't have quite the same impact as those of Matt Campbell and Grant Stockwell before him, but a win's a win and we'll take 16% into the black any day.
Let's take a quick look back at his tips:
It was a bad start with Marquardt in the third at Caulfield. With Bowman on board and a good record starting fresh, the Kiwi galloper came in sharply in the dying minutes before the race, starting second favourite. But racing three and four wide for most of the race, there was no gas in the tank for the finish we needed. No joy for punters there.
Tootsie in the ninth, however, was every chance. Had it not been for the late charge from a 30-1 shot, we'd have been more in the money. But $2.70 for a place meant we weren't in a total disaster area.
A draw in the soccer saved our bacon. Here's a reminder of what Sullivan said: "The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents."
"Hold out" is the key part of this phrase. We were lucky, but we'll take it all the same.
With the Spring Carnival heating up, we'll try to keep you up with market movements, particularly for the Caulfield Cup, as the week progresses.
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