Winter Olympics 2010 downhill form guide

I've managed to get a bit of a Christmas present from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com. I can't get all the detailed form information, but the synopsis might help when you're trying to pick winners from the World Cup races happening fairly much each weekend leading up to the Vancouver Games.

And the event is the Men's Downhill, which kicks off on the opening day of competition at the Winter Olympics.

The Downhill is pure speed, a race against the clock to the bottom of a defined course.

In many ways, it is the most raw of all Winter Olympic events, at least those on skis.

It is also one of the most dangerous as skiers clock massive speeds. The danger is no better typified by the horrific crash which left Swiss skier Daniel Albrecht in a coma for three weeks with brain and lung injuries.

Albrecht’s story also typifies the courage of these athletes, for he not only survived, but he has vowed to return to the sport, perhaps in 2011.

In an effort to push the limits of their potential, most skiers have crashed out at some point. Already this season, world champion John Kucera has been eliminated from the Winter Olympics after breaking his leg. It's a big blow to the competition, but an even bigger blow to the Canadians who would have ranked him as one of their Gold Medal hopes.

This, however, is the Winter Olympics. All will be doing what they can to win a medal, ultimately gold.

Hundredths of a second can regularly determine placings in Downhill, as it can for most alpine events. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for the better skiers to put in a conservative first run. Rather, they’ll likely be giving it their all from the outset.

When it comes to picking a winner, that makes any selection a bit of a lottery. However, we’ll look for performance indicators which improve our chances and push the percentages in our favour.

The FIS will release its final rankings on January 18, which will allow us to assess the final field. But, based on 2009 rankings and performances in World Cup, European Cup and other FIS races, we’ll have an early look at the top chances.

Not only will that give us a good indication of who might figure in the medals in Vancouver, it will give us a clear view of who to keep an eye on in the two months leading up to the premier event as skiers vie for world champion status.

Manuel Osborne-Paradis (Canada)

Keep an eye on this man – very closely. He’s a Downhill specialist with some interest in the Super G. Ranked 5th in the world, the Canadian speedster will not only have local screaming and cow bells on his side, he’ll have plenty of local knowledge. As a member of Whistler Mountain Ski Club, the 25-year-old will have an appreciation of the course like no other competitor, with an ability to match. Watch the market but we’ll be tipping him early as one of the favourites to win the event. And with Kucera out, the expectation grows even more.

Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)

The Norwegian turns 27 in December and is in the prime of his career, at the beginning of 2009 crowned overall alpine world champion. He also tops the rankings in Super-G and will no doubt be a threat at the Vancouver Olympics in that discipline, the downhill and the giant slalom. He’s one of the few skiiers in with a realistic chance of multiple medals in the alpine events.

Michael Walchhofer (Austria)

At 34, Walchhofer is one of the veterans of the strong Austrian team, but he is also one of the fastest. In peak condition, this man is true speed and will no doubt be right in the hunt when it comes medal time in the Downhill and Super-G events. Walchhofer is ranked first in the world in Downhill and has some consistent performances. Ignore the 12th place at the World Championships. But we do need to be mindful that his last World Cup victory was in December 2008. If you want a good sighter in Vancouver, this is one of your leading men.

Carlo Janka (Switzerland)

At 23, Janka is the golden boy of the Swiss team and will likely compete in all disciplines. At the World Championships in France in February, he placed first in the Giant Slalom, finishing 0.7 seconds ahead of his nearest rival. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s a sport where hundredths of a second can separate the top few, as happened with the Downhill at the same event where Janka finished third, 0.17 behind the gold medal winner. Already a proven big-race performer and likely only to improve when it comes to February, expect him to be well in the mix in the Downhill event. Ignore some ordinary late-season World Cup finishes to focus on current form, a third at the World Championships and a second in Canada in November 2008.

Didier Cuche (Switzerland)

This guy is likely to start one of the three top favourites for the Downhill and rightly so. At 35, Cuche is a veteran of the sport, but is still going strong as the world’s third ranked all-round alpine skiier. Cuche was in 2007 and 2008 ranked the world’s top Downhill skiier and is unlikely to be outside the top 5 when competitors head through the gates for their gold medal run. It won’t take much for him to recapture form which made him one of the most feared competitors on the planet. His proven record under pressure make him one of the most solid bets of the alpine racing agenda, albeit no certainty to pick up the gold. And his early 2010 form has been absolutely fantastic, of the highest order in the sport. He'll probably be a 3-star pick in our book.

Werner Heel (Italy)

The 27-year-old Italian speedster will likely start one of the favourites for the Super-G. His grace and strength is of the highest ilk and he’s beaten all-comers. Despite being without a World Cup win in the Downhill, he could find himself on the podium if it all comes together for him in Vancouver. He will, however, have to make up a couple of seconds on the quality field, which he might have done during off-season training. Heel is definitely one to follow in the World Cup events before the Olympics.

Klaus Kroell (Austria)

Consistent top 10 finishes in World Cup Downhill competitions see him ranked second in the world for the event. Kroell’s two wins early this year on the World Cup circuit – one in Downhill and the other in Super G – showed that he is a skiier now to be respected. At 29, he is entering his prime at the right time for the Olympics and might be one of the Austrians to shine in Vancouver. We’ll have an eye on his lead-up performances to see how he’s tracking. One of the problems facing all Austrian skiiers is selection, but his timely form might see him nudging for a medal.

Didier Defago (Switzerland)

Defago has an overall world ranking of 6th, having broken into the top 10 off the back of solid performances in two disciplines – the Downhill and Super-G in 2009. Speed is the essence for the all-rounder. At 32, it is remarkable that the Swiss skiier was only last year able to attain a career-high ranking after almost 14 years on the world circuit. This is likely to be his last Olympics and his form indicates he could spring an upset – or at least a medal. He’ll certainly be hungry enough, and with eight Olympic starts already, and 191 World Cup appearances, he might prove to be one of the great tales of the Vancouver Games. Late-season form in March was ordinary, but don’t overlook back-to-back World Cup victories in January – the only skier on the circuit to achieve the feat.

Romed Baumann (Austria)

We’ve included Baumann in the Downhill form guide purely because of his age. At 23, he is better performed in Super Combined and Giant Slalom. But with consistent top 20 finishes in the Downhill, it is worth keeping an eye on his form leading up to the Olympics.

Christof Innerhofer (Italy)

Innerhofer is an accomplished all-rounder and Italy’s best chance of a medal. He carries plenty of speed in the Downhill, and will no doubt pressure the leaders in other events as well. At 25, and in comparison to many of his opponents, Innerhofer is relatively inexperienced with only 50+ World Cup starts and in his first Olympics. But he is a rising star and this might be his opportunity to put his mark firmly on the international scene. Being young and fast, his biggest let-down might be volatility. But at an Olympics, going for broke is a good thing. An example is in December 2008 when Innerhofer had two disastrous Downhill finishes in Beaver Creek and Val Gardena-Groeden, before blitzing the slopes in front of his home Bormio crowd to take home a World Cup victory. He’s one to keep on the radar.

Peter Fill (Italy)

Fill is ranked one position above Innerhofer in the overall world standings, and performances indicate they are very close in their ability to medal. Fill is much more experienced than his countryman, and already has a Winter Olympics under his belt which could serve him well in Vancouver. But it’s difficult to see him able to put in the explosive speed required to hit the Downhill podium.

Erik Guay (Canada)

Guay is built for speed, and speed alone. There’ll be none of that twisting and turning nonsense for one of Canada’s great medal hopes. Rest assured, when he’s flying down the slopes, the cow bells will be ringing at their absolute loudest. At 28, he’s had one Olympc start in 2006, and one World Cup victory since. He’s ranked 6th in the world in Downhill. Expect a performance of great heart in front of his home crowd.

Bode Miller (USA)

Along with Hermann Maier, Miller is by far the greatest skiier of recent times. If he overcomes injuries to race, he’ll show versatility like no other on the American team. Miller was world champion by a long way in 2005 and 2008, and clearly in the top 4 since 2002. If fit, he’s a threat in any of the Alpine disciplines. With two silver medals at the 2002 Games, he’d love to add gold to the list, particularly in the twilight of his career. Miller, if there are any doubters about his extraordinary career at elite level, has 31 World Cup victories to his name. He also has 67 podium finishes. He is truly an amazing athlete. We’ll be monitoring his fitness leading up to Vancouver. It could have a huge bearing on who starts favourite for each of the alpine events.

Benjamin Raich (Austria)

Raich might be regarded one of the best all-round skiers in the world, but it would be unlikely for him to medal in the Downhill, probably his weakest discipline. It is most likely, as happened in the World Championships, that he will skip the event to focus on his strongest events. But a great skier is a great skier and it would be reminisce of us not to keep an eye on his World Cup performances in the next couple of months.

Others to watch:

Hans Olssen (Sweden)

The 25-year-old Swede is rising fast in the world Downhill rankings. In his last two starts, he finished less than 6 seconds behind the leader in his home country, at Are, in March, to finish 3rd, and fourth in Norway four days previously. His off-season preparation will determine whether he’s worth seriously watching leading up to the Olympics.

Ambrosi Hoffmann (Switzerland)

The 32-year-old builder knows what it’s like to win a medal, having picked up the bronze in Super-G at the 2006 Games. He trains for speed and with a third and fourth in consecutive World Cup starts in January, is one worth keeping an eye on. He will be one of the more experienced competitors in the field with more than 190 World Cup starts.

Marco Buechel (Liechtenstein)

If Marco Buechel decides to give the Olympics one final tilt, he will almost certainly be one of the oldest competitors in the field. That will make him one of the most experienced, and having been ranked second in the world in Downhill in 2007, and fourth in 2006, he must be respected. He was fourth in this year’s world championships in the Downhill, his best performance for the season. But that just proves that he can be a big-time competitor and might just find himself on the podium if all comes together in Vancouver.

Marco Sullivan (USA)

Sullivan’s late-season form in 2009 was far from awe-inspiring, but he’s proven he can mix it with the best, having finished third in Wengen, Switzerland, in a World Cup Downhill event, and fourth in Italy in December 2008. He’s won FIS races but will need to be at his absolute best to upset more favoured athletes.

Andrej Jerman (Slovenia)

“Jerry”, as he’s known on the circuit, is 31 and has finished on the World Cup podium three times. His best 2009 finish was 4th in a World Cup event in Norway in January. He’s unlikely to be in the medals but will be worth watching in lead-up events.

Adrien Theaux (France)

Theaux is another rising star. At 25, he’s yet to finish on the podium in a world-class event, but form would suggest his first is not far away. It’s unlikely to be at the Olympics, but a couple of top 10 finishes on the circuit towards the end of last season make him worth watching.

Robbie Dixon (Canada)

Dixon is another local hope and has knowledge of the slopes, being based at the Whistler Mountain Ski Club. His form might not be much to write home about, but with a 5th and 7th in Norway against a world class field, the 24-year-old might just be on the rise at the right time. Those two performances saw him sneak into the world’s top 20 rankings for the event for the first time.

Congratulations Miss Gibraltar

I thought I'd share one of the more unusual press releases I've received from bookmakers recently. Victor Chandler moved to Gibraltar, so why not rally his own!

And if anybody took the 250-1, can you let me know?

Victor Chandler offered his congratulations to newly crowned Miss World, Kaiane Aldorino.

The Gibraltar based bookmaker, who changed the online gaming industry forever when he moved from London to Gibraltar 10 years ago, said that the winner had been subject to a large number of bets from local residents.

Victor Chandler, Chairman, commented “The rules only recently changed to allow Gibraltar residents to bet with me, but a lot of local residents are glad they did!

Kaiane was initially a 250/1 outsider, and was still rated 14/1 sixth favourite on Friday, and whilst no residents were on at 250/1 many backed Kaiane at 14/1, and I am genuinely pleased to pay them all.

I am thrilled both for Kaiane and for the whole of Gibraltar.”