What a difference a day makes.
And what a bunch of sheep my peers in the media can be.
Here's how it works:
Step 1: Journalist catches wind of a rumour that Joe Hockey will stab his mate Malcolm Turnbull in the back. And because that's good enough for a change, Tony Abbott pulls himself from the challenge.
Step 2: Journalist number 2 hears the report of said rumour and doesn't want to be seen missing out on the news. Rumour 2 reported as fact in ensuing commentary.
Step 3: Repeat Step 2 until Hockey is a sure thing to win the leadership - almost to the point his own party believes it.
Step 4: Punters are sure they are on a good thing and back Hockey into $1.20, and Abbott out to more than $5 to lead the Liberals to the next election. At no point was there any real evidence aside from media hype to support the move.
Step 5: Liberals go the way they had planned all along and install Abbott to the leadership. Abbott firms to $1.15 to lead the Liberals to the next election and Hockey moves to more than $5 in the market.
Those laughing loudest at the political circus which is now the Liberal Party must surely be the bookmakers.
I also note that the Labor Party has today moved out from $1.15 to $1.20 in the market to win the next election.
I don't get it. If the rumours were so hot yesterday that there was to be a change in Liberal leadership, why didn't the move happen at that point?
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 1, 2009
Monday, November 30, 2009
Turnbull says he has Hockey's support
A press statement from Malcolm Turnbull only moments ago told everybody he's sure he has the support of Joe Hockey. If he can be believed, punters might have been a little premature to back Hockey to be Liberal leader at the next election.
The media likes to latch on to rumours, and it's a pretty big tip that Hockey will tomorrow contest the leadership.
If Turnbull can be believed: It's a big "if".
The Coalition leadership market has become a one-horse race following heavy betting behind Joe Hockey over the weekend at Sportingbet Australia.
Dropping to a near-unbackable $1.20 to lead the Coalition to the next election, Mr Hockey enjoys the absolute support of punters to seize control in tomorrow morning’s leadership ballot.
He has pulled well ahead of conservative candidate Tony Abbott, who now languishes at $5.00, and the apparently outgoing leader Malcolm Turnbull, who has slid out to an unlikely $7.00 in the betting.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that after a tumultuous weekend for the leadership market, punters have crowded around Hockey.
“I’d say Hockey’s visit to John Howard finalised the issue in the minds of punters,” said Mr Sullivan.
“Turnbull seems to have run out of friends and Abbott has the slight issue of his unelectability to overcome,” he said.
Meanwhile other leadership contenders in the Sportingbet Australia market are Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop, who has blown out to $34.
FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hockey $1.20
Abbott $5
Turnbull $7
Robb $17
Dutton $21
Bishop $34
Any Other $11
The media likes to latch on to rumours, and it's a pretty big tip that Hockey will tomorrow contest the leadership.
If Turnbull can be believed: It's a big "if".
The Coalition leadership market has become a one-horse race following heavy betting behind Joe Hockey over the weekend at Sportingbet Australia.
Dropping to a near-unbackable $1.20 to lead the Coalition to the next election, Mr Hockey enjoys the absolute support of punters to seize control in tomorrow morning’s leadership ballot.
He has pulled well ahead of conservative candidate Tony Abbott, who now languishes at $5.00, and the apparently outgoing leader Malcolm Turnbull, who has slid out to an unlikely $7.00 in the betting.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that after a tumultuous weekend for the leadership market, punters have crowded around Hockey.
“I’d say Hockey’s visit to John Howard finalised the issue in the minds of punters,” said Mr Sullivan.
“Turnbull seems to have run out of friends and Abbott has the slight issue of his unelectability to overcome,” he said.
Meanwhile other leadership contenders in the Sportingbet Australia market are Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop, who has blown out to $34.
FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hockey $1.20
Abbott $5
Turnbull $7
Robb $17
Dutton $21
Bishop $34
Any Other $11
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Rees gets support from Aussie punters
An interesting view of New South Wales state politics, which evidently gives some support to Nathan Rees:
The government of Nathan Rees was given a boost today from punters, following a series of ‘shock and awe’ tactics by the Premier on the floor of the ALP’s state conference.
Labor’s odds to retain government at the next election shortened from $4.00 to $3.80 after a number of bets were placed on them at Sportingbet Australia.
The controversial moves, which saw Rees ridding his cabinet of Joe Tripodi and Ian Macdonald, has been seen as an effort to ‘stop the rot’ and also has the Premier’s odds shorten to lead the party to the next election.
Without fickle ‘king-breaker’ Tripodi in Cabinet, punters have read this as a plus for the Premier, cutting his odds back to $3.25.
Carmel Tebbutt is seen as the obvious danger and is equal favourite alongside the Premier at $3.25
Meanwhile odds on previous favourite Kristina Keneally have blown out the gate following the unceremonious exit of her political patron, Tripodi. Keneally is now paying $5.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Premier’s decisive seizing of the Cabinet selection process and his crackdown on political fundraising have been interpreted as a sign that the government is willing to take risks and make sacrifices as it attempts to become electorally competitive.
“Punters seem to be telling us that they are considering taking the Rees Government seriously, after a long period of questioning who was really running the state,” said Mr Sullivan.
“We’ve certainly seen a few punters getting behind Rees and his team today,” he said.
“Some are even backing him to hold onto the leadership, which is a big call given he’s hung his enemies out to dry on the backbench, where they’ll be free to resume plotting his downfall.”
Meanwhile the Coalition’s odds to win the next state election have drifted slightly to $1.25 although they remain red hot favourites.
The government of Nathan Rees was given a boost today from punters, following a series of ‘shock and awe’ tactics by the Premier on the floor of the ALP’s state conference.
Labor’s odds to retain government at the next election shortened from $4.00 to $3.80 after a number of bets were placed on them at Sportingbet Australia.
The controversial moves, which saw Rees ridding his cabinet of Joe Tripodi and Ian Macdonald, has been seen as an effort to ‘stop the rot’ and also has the Premier’s odds shorten to lead the party to the next election.
Without fickle ‘king-breaker’ Tripodi in Cabinet, punters have read this as a plus for the Premier, cutting his odds back to $3.25.
Carmel Tebbutt is seen as the obvious danger and is equal favourite alongside the Premier at $3.25
Meanwhile odds on previous favourite Kristina Keneally have blown out the gate following the unceremonious exit of her political patron, Tripodi. Keneally is now paying $5.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Premier’s decisive seizing of the Cabinet selection process and his crackdown on political fundraising have been interpreted as a sign that the government is willing to take risks and make sacrifices as it attempts to become electorally competitive.
“Punters seem to be telling us that they are considering taking the Rees Government seriously, after a long period of questioning who was really running the state,” said Mr Sullivan.
“We’ve certainly seen a few punters getting behind Rees and his team today,” he said.
“Some are even backing him to hold onto the leadership, which is a big call given he’s hung his enemies out to dry on the backbench, where they’ll be free to resume plotting his downfall.”
Meanwhile the Coalition’s odds to win the next state election have drifted slightly to $1.25 although they remain red hot favourites.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Joe Hockey firms as Liberal leader
Here's a statement put out today by Sportingbet Australia:
Punters are swarming to Opposition leadership contender Joe Hockey, causing his odds to shorten dramatically from $3.00 to $2.35 to lead the Coalition to the next federal election.
In the midst of intense media speculation, precipitated by the admission by Hockey that he had been ‘tapped on the shoulder’ to lead the party, Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have slumped to $2.00.
While Hockey is considered unwilling to mount a challenge and Turnbull is said to be determined to hold onto the leadership, the decision is widely considered to be out of their hands.
The Coalition party room, heavily divided over the forthcoming emissions trading debate, looks set to decide the issue sooner rather than later; creating a degree of uncertainty for punters.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Opposition leadership market was hotting up, with Hockey attracting strong betting from punters.
“All the betting is with Hockey at the moment which would reflect his newfound status of leader-elect,” said Mr Sullivan.
“However despite the media being full of obituaries for Turnbull today, he remains short at $2.00 which suggests that this may not be over yet.
“Punters aren’t entirely willing to second guess the Coalition party room, which could do anything – or nothing.”
A third leadership option in Tony Abbott, who has also shortened dramatically in recent times, despite being widely dismissed by commentators as unelectable, brings up the rear at $4.25.
Meanwhile other leadership contenders in Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21) have been overtaken by punters backing ‘Any Other’ at $13.00.
FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Turnbull $2.00
Hockey $2.35
Abbott $4.25
Robb $17.00
Dutton $21.00
Bishop $21.00
Any Other $13.00
Punters are swarming to Opposition leadership contender Joe Hockey, causing his odds to shorten dramatically from $3.00 to $2.35 to lead the Coalition to the next federal election.
In the midst of intense media speculation, precipitated by the admission by Hockey that he had been ‘tapped on the shoulder’ to lead the party, Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have slumped to $2.00.
While Hockey is considered unwilling to mount a challenge and Turnbull is said to be determined to hold onto the leadership, the decision is widely considered to be out of their hands.
The Coalition party room, heavily divided over the forthcoming emissions trading debate, looks set to decide the issue sooner rather than later; creating a degree of uncertainty for punters.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Opposition leadership market was hotting up, with Hockey attracting strong betting from punters.
“All the betting is with Hockey at the moment which would reflect his newfound status of leader-elect,” said Mr Sullivan.
“However despite the media being full of obituaries for Turnbull today, he remains short at $2.00 which suggests that this may not be over yet.
“Punters aren’t entirely willing to second guess the Coalition party room, which could do anything – or nothing.”
A third leadership option in Tony Abbott, who has also shortened dramatically in recent times, despite being widely dismissed by commentators as unelectable, brings up the rear at $4.25.
Meanwhile other leadership contenders in Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21) have been overtaken by punters backing ‘Any Other’ at $13.00.
FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Turnbull $2.00
Hockey $2.35
Abbott $4.25
Robb $17.00
Dutton $21.00
Bishop $21.00
Any Other $13.00
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Big bet on Rudd confidence today
I'm not sure what term deposit accounts pay over 12 months, but I'm pretty sure it's not more than the vicinity of 5%.
I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.
They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.
If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.
I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.
I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.
But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.
The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.
“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.
“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”
“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”
I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.
They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.
If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.
I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.
I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.
But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.
The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.
“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.
“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”
“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
