Daffodil a serious Caulfield Cup hope

Following is an unedited statement released by IASbet this morning. This isn't our Friday guest tipster spot, but might well be worth a serious look:

While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.

"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.

"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.

"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."

Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.

From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.

For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.

No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.

However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.

"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."

Cima de Triomphe gets Caulfield Cup support

Just as we release a report that punters are going for Kirklees, Centrebet puts out a release saying Cima de Triomphe has claims.

Here's the release:

Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!

The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.

Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.

Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.

“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.

The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.

The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.

One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.

And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.

Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.

CAULFIELD CUP

$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)

Latest Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets

Kirklees trainers were last night gloating about their horse's chances in the Caulfield Cup, particularly when they got a favourable barrier draw.

The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:

KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS

European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.

“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.

“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”

Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.

2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00

2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus