Those who followed yesterday's tips will be basking in the glory of a St Kilda win.
Our value bet on the Gold Coast in the rugby league wasn't so flash, but we should have picked up the 35% return for our key bet on the Saints.
I must say though, I thought the Saints were lucky. There were three umpiring decisions which gave them a distinct advantage over the valiant Dogs.
First, there was the free kick at the top of the third quarter. Very soft indeed. Then there was the rushed behind which, after looking at replays, I thought should have been a goal. And the final goal by Nick Riewoldt, for mine, cannot have been anything else but touched.
Regardless, we'll take the collect and move on.
I don't have a certain bet for tonight, and refuse to touch the AFL game given my loyalty to the Pies.
But a forgotten match seems to be the rugby union. Australia is fresh from a morale-boosting win against tri-nations champions South Africa, and the All Blacks have made wholesale changes (5 in total) to their side after losing to the Springboks.
I wouldn't be staking too much of your bankroll on it, but at $2.70, the Wallabies are a terrific value bet. With nothing but pride on the line, the green and gold boys seem to have much more to lose than the All Blacks.
If you feel you've spotted a good bet, be sure to let me know and we'll analyse it for all to see.
Next week, I'll ask everybody for their advice about which bookmaker deal we should take and we'll kick off a $100 bankroll, and we'll ride it together.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Friday, September 18, 2009
Finals fever: weekend footy preview
If you’ve been following this blog in its early stages, you’ve already had a win on the cricket last night.
Now it’s time for the footy finals.
Earlier in the week, I indicated that the Gold Coast vs Parramatta game was a coin flip. If that’s the case, it’s worth a small investment in the Titans at more than $3, purely for the reason we're getting "overs".
I also shouted during the week from the rooftops about the $1.37 on offer for the Saints to roll the Bulldogs out of the AFL tonight.
That price has firmed a couple of points to $1.35, but it’s still worth taking. One saying I’ve often heard associated with punting is the simple, yet effective: “A win’s a win”. Take the 35%.
As with all gambling, I could well be eating my words come Monday morning, but all form indicators point to a St Kilda win.
Take note, I haven’t touched the other game between Collingwood and Geelong, which leads to another adage: “Never put money on a game where the heart overpowers the mind.”
And my heart will be with the Pies as I sit in spirit with the black and white army.
As for the other rugby league match for the weekend, St George and the Broncos seem evenly poised with the minor premiers on shaky ground to be ousted from the finals series in straight sets.
Betting lines tell a similar story, with Brisbane slight favourites.
The Broncos have home ground advantage and some big-name players.
But I can find plenty of reasons not to back against any side, and I’ll be keeping my money well away from this one.
Now it’s time for the footy finals.
Earlier in the week, I indicated that the Gold Coast vs Parramatta game was a coin flip. If that’s the case, it’s worth a small investment in the Titans at more than $3, purely for the reason we're getting "overs".
I also shouted during the week from the rooftops about the $1.37 on offer for the Saints to roll the Bulldogs out of the AFL tonight.
That price has firmed a couple of points to $1.35, but it’s still worth taking. One saying I’ve often heard associated with punting is the simple, yet effective: “A win’s a win”. Take the 35%.
As with all gambling, I could well be eating my words come Monday morning, but all form indicators point to a St Kilda win.
Take note, I haven’t touched the other game between Collingwood and Geelong, which leads to another adage: “Never put money on a game where the heart overpowers the mind.”
And my heart will be with the Pies as I sit in spirit with the black and white army.
As for the other rugby league match for the weekend, St George and the Broncos seem evenly poised with the minor premiers on shaky ground to be ousted from the finals series in straight sets.
Betting lines tell a similar story, with Brisbane slight favourites.
The Broncos have home ground advantage and some big-name players.
But I can find plenty of reasons not to back against any side, and I’ll be keeping my money well away from this one.
Damn you Channel 7!
Second week into the finals and it’s time somebody threw a raspberry at Channel 7.
Delayed telecasts of AFL in Sydney are frustrating football fans, to the point they will not watch games.
Rugby league gets similar treatment in southern states.
During the season, we are able to turn to Fox Sports channels to catch live games, but 7 has the contracts so water tight that they seem to do what they please.
Both AFL finals games last week bounced down on free to air at 8.30pm – one hour behind southern states.
And the same will happen this weekend.
Granted, the Sydney audience is not as keen to tap into an AFL match, but I for one will be turning to radio for my live fix.
For television stations to hijack ratings away from pay television is a disservice to the fans.
If I wasn’t so keen to watch my team, Collingwood, in the finals, I’d happily boycott the coverage, and would encourage any other serious sports fan to do the same.
In a nutshell, this is rubbish Channel 7. Allow our protest to be heard.
Delayed telecasts of AFL in Sydney are frustrating football fans, to the point they will not watch games.
Rugby league gets similar treatment in southern states.
During the season, we are able to turn to Fox Sports channels to catch live games, but 7 has the contracts so water tight that they seem to do what they please.
Both AFL finals games last week bounced down on free to air at 8.30pm – one hour behind southern states.
And the same will happen this weekend.
Granted, the Sydney audience is not as keen to tap into an AFL match, but I for one will be turning to radio for my live fix.
For television stations to hijack ratings away from pay television is a disservice to the fans.
If I wasn’t so keen to watch my team, Collingwood, in the finals, I’d happily boycott the coverage, and would encourage any other serious sports fan to do the same.
In a nutshell, this is rubbish Channel 7. Allow our protest to be heard.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Australian Idol form guide
Current betting on Australian Idol is hot, to the point there’s been fluctuation over the last 24 hours. Stan Walker has firmed as favourite, slipping into $3 on the current tote.
Sadly, however, this means little to most punters. They can’t judge form because they don’t watch the show. So I thought I’d put together a little something which might make more sense.
Race: Australian Idol overall winner stakes
Stan Walker: $3
Stan looks a little flimsy in the mounting yard, but when he hits the track he’s dynamite. His latest effort to sing Metallica shot him into early favouritism. But remember, this is a staying race. Some discipline from the jockeys might help his off-track demeanour, but they’ll need to hold him back from peaking too early in the race.
Go close.
Kim Cooper: $5.5
Proven performer on country tracks, Kim moves up in class to the city environment. And in early barrier trials, she has impressed with a pleasant demeanour and strong finish. This filly has won plenty of support of late and should be in the finish during final weeks of the competition.
Has claims here.
Sabrina Batshon: $6
Sabrina comes from one of the most elite stables in the race, being brought up by the finest trainers. But she can be a little temperamental, which means some of the rougher fillies demand more respect. This filly will no doubt catch the eye of onlookers at the start of the race, but a question-mark lies over her staying power.
Keep safe.
Nathan Brake: $6.5
One of the youngest in the field, Nathan was fast out of the gates at barrier trials, blasting home We Are the Champions. But his early mantle has been swept aside as others show promise. This has led punters to question whether this impressive young colt has the staying power to take it all the way to the finish.
One of the chances.
Scott Newnham: $7
This colt thought his ticket in life was as a workhorse. But brickies are always looking for a bargain and shot Scott into the Idol racing arena. A crowd favourite, he’ll be a rags to riches story if he can upset proven performers. After an impressive first furlong, his effort last week showed signs of lethargy. Trainers might suggest he discards the blinkers.
Seemingly outclassed in this field but will attract loyal following.
Hayley Warner: $10
A slow starter showing signs of staying power. Hayley is not as sleek as other fillies, but determination might prove a winner if the jockey can keep the lid on technical development. Raw talent has seen her firm solidly in the betting over the past two weeks.
Needs improvement.
James Johnston: $12
If the youngest fillies in the stable had a say in the result, this colt would be a clear winner, but after wins in the country, this race is a rise in class for the young performer. His outback talent might not serve him overly well in an event boasting more talented stayers.
Watch market fluctuations. Prefer others.
Kate Cook: $21
Trained in the bush, Kate is rising in class. Early success in barrier trials might suggest she is a better chance than the odds indicate. She tripped on a rock last week, but might perform better in different events, starting with Top 10 on Sunday. She might struggle in the home straight.
Value at these odds, but seems outclassed.
Toby Moulton: $26
Toby has made a life out of teaching young colts and fillies. But the teacher has fast become the student in a classy field. Unused to advanced training techniques, he needs to quickly adapt to be any chance of an upset. There might be some support from older race-goers, but that’s unlikely to influence the result.
Prefer in something easier.
Tim Johnston: $34
This colt was shown up in the mounting yard, but raced back into contention with a Jumping Jack Flash last week. That performance is likely to see him race deeper into the carnival, but it’s hard to see him in the finish.
Others look stronger.
Casey Barnes: $34
Barrier trials have not been overly impressive for this stallion. Casey is one of the elder statesmen of the field and is currently the favourite to be first scratched as the carnival progresses, despite some previous overseas success in his career.
Can’t consider.
* Odds according to sportsbet.com
Sadly, however, this means little to most punters. They can’t judge form because they don’t watch the show. So I thought I’d put together a little something which might make more sense.
Race: Australian Idol overall winner stakes
Stan Walker: $3
Stan looks a little flimsy in the mounting yard, but when he hits the track he’s dynamite. His latest effort to sing Metallica shot him into early favouritism. But remember, this is a staying race. Some discipline from the jockeys might help his off-track demeanour, but they’ll need to hold him back from peaking too early in the race.
Go close.
Kim Cooper: $5.5
Proven performer on country tracks, Kim moves up in class to the city environment. And in early barrier trials, she has impressed with a pleasant demeanour and strong finish. This filly has won plenty of support of late and should be in the finish during final weeks of the competition.
Has claims here.
Sabrina Batshon: $6
Sabrina comes from one of the most elite stables in the race, being brought up by the finest trainers. But she can be a little temperamental, which means some of the rougher fillies demand more respect. This filly will no doubt catch the eye of onlookers at the start of the race, but a question-mark lies over her staying power.
Keep safe.
Nathan Brake: $6.5
One of the youngest in the field, Nathan was fast out of the gates at barrier trials, blasting home We Are the Champions. But his early mantle has been swept aside as others show promise. This has led punters to question whether this impressive young colt has the staying power to take it all the way to the finish.
One of the chances.
Scott Newnham: $7
This colt thought his ticket in life was as a workhorse. But brickies are always looking for a bargain and shot Scott into the Idol racing arena. A crowd favourite, he’ll be a rags to riches story if he can upset proven performers. After an impressive first furlong, his effort last week showed signs of lethargy. Trainers might suggest he discards the blinkers.
Seemingly outclassed in this field but will attract loyal following.
Hayley Warner: $10
A slow starter showing signs of staying power. Hayley is not as sleek as other fillies, but determination might prove a winner if the jockey can keep the lid on technical development. Raw talent has seen her firm solidly in the betting over the past two weeks.
Needs improvement.
James Johnston: $12
If the youngest fillies in the stable had a say in the result, this colt would be a clear winner, but after wins in the country, this race is a rise in class for the young performer. His outback talent might not serve him overly well in an event boasting more talented stayers.
Watch market fluctuations. Prefer others.
Kate Cook: $21
Trained in the bush, Kate is rising in class. Early success in barrier trials might suggest she is a better chance than the odds indicate. She tripped on a rock last week, but might perform better in different events, starting with Top 10 on Sunday. She might struggle in the home straight.
Value at these odds, but seems outclassed.
Toby Moulton: $26
Toby has made a life out of teaching young colts and fillies. But the teacher has fast become the student in a classy field. Unused to advanced training techniques, he needs to quickly adapt to be any chance of an upset. There might be some support from older race-goers, but that’s unlikely to influence the result.
Prefer in something easier.
Tim Johnston: $34
This colt was shown up in the mounting yard, but raced back into contention with a Jumping Jack Flash last week. That performance is likely to see him race deeper into the carnival, but it’s hard to see him in the finish.
Others look stronger.
Casey Barnes: $34
Barrier trials have not been overly impressive for this stallion. Casey is one of the elder statesmen of the field and is currently the favourite to be first scratched as the carnival progresses, despite some previous overseas success in his career.
Can’t consider.
* Odds according to sportsbet.com
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Australian cricketers still at backable odds
Australia has thus far crushed England in the one-day cricket series, a serious turnaround on the Ashes result.
Ricky Ponting's hundred in the last match helped the Aussies overhaul an unlikely target of 300, and Callum Ferguson, Cameron White, Nathan Hauritz and Tim Paine are all proving useful for their country.
Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson have been a handful for the English brigade, despite Johnson going for 80 in the last game.
On the surface it seems there's little England will be able to do to prevent a 7-0 whitewash.
That's what people said about St Kilda entering the final rounds of the AFL. History was against them finishing the season undefeated. And it proved as true for them as it did for Geelong two seasons earlier.
Had you backed the Australian cricketers before the series to clean up, you'd have received a 17-1 return on your money with some bookmakers. But the job's not done yet. And chances are the Australian heirarchy, in all their wisdom, will experiment with the team leading into the Twenty20 World Cup.
If so, that makes the final two games a coin flip. England will be keen to alter the momentum, and our boys in the green and gold might just be starting to feel a little cocky.
However, remember Brett Lee sat out the last game. It's not a bad ace to have up your sleeve.
Still, the odds on England winning a game are not nearly juicy enough for mine. England is at $2.65 on Betfair, which seems to offer the best cricket odds. They are still offering around the $1.60 mark for the Australians. And it's always dangerous to back against form on the premise someone - in this case the Poms - is "due".
If I had the 17-1, I'd be feeling reasonably confident.
And I'd reckon Australia at anything over $1.50 is a wise investment in game 6 tonight.
Ricky Ponting's hundred in the last match helped the Aussies overhaul an unlikely target of 300, and Callum Ferguson, Cameron White, Nathan Hauritz and Tim Paine are all proving useful for their country.
Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson have been a handful for the English brigade, despite Johnson going for 80 in the last game.
On the surface it seems there's little England will be able to do to prevent a 7-0 whitewash.
That's what people said about St Kilda entering the final rounds of the AFL. History was against them finishing the season undefeated. And it proved as true for them as it did for Geelong two seasons earlier.
Had you backed the Australian cricketers before the series to clean up, you'd have received a 17-1 return on your money with some bookmakers. But the job's not done yet. And chances are the Australian heirarchy, in all their wisdom, will experiment with the team leading into the Twenty20 World Cup.
If so, that makes the final two games a coin flip. England will be keen to alter the momentum, and our boys in the green and gold might just be starting to feel a little cocky.
However, remember Brett Lee sat out the last game. It's not a bad ace to have up your sleeve.
Still, the odds on England winning a game are not nearly juicy enough for mine. England is at $2.65 on Betfair, which seems to offer the best cricket odds. They are still offering around the $1.60 mark for the Australians. And it's always dangerous to back against form on the premise someone - in this case the Poms - is "due".
If I had the 17-1, I'd be feeling reasonably confident.
And I'd reckon Australia at anything over $1.50 is a wise investment in game 6 tonight.
Federal election a good bet
Politics might be dull to most, but it might be worth a long-term investment.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's popularity ratings are high, and his opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Even worse for the Liberals is that nobody seems to be champing at the bit to take over the beleaguered reins.
It is commonly said in political circles that a win for Labor at the last election was effectively two wins for Rudd and his team.
The stimulus package seems to have struck a positive chord, given the results. On the downside, home loan rates might rise, which would work against the incumbent.
There's plenty of homework and crystal-balling which can be done, but importantly for punters, there's $1.35 waiting for anybody willing to invest long-term in a Labor victory.
Labor will likely shoot for an early election, which means the return should come in time for Christmas 2010. Yes, it's a long wait.
Given polls and the current environment, I'd have thought $1.05 were good odds.
As a good friend used to say: "Better than bank interest, mate." The trick, I guess, is to weigh up the 35% return against a term deposit account.
The other factor, of course, is whether your patience can ride out a possible 18-month wait - something most punters are not overly keen to do.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's popularity ratings are high, and his opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Even worse for the Liberals is that nobody seems to be champing at the bit to take over the beleaguered reins.
It is commonly said in political circles that a win for Labor at the last election was effectively two wins for Rudd and his team.
The stimulus package seems to have struck a positive chord, given the results. On the downside, home loan rates might rise, which would work against the incumbent.
There's plenty of homework and crystal-balling which can be done, but importantly for punters, there's $1.35 waiting for anybody willing to invest long-term in a Labor victory.
Labor will likely shoot for an early election, which means the return should come in time for Christmas 2010. Yes, it's a long wait.
Given polls and the current environment, I'd have thought $1.05 were good odds.
As a good friend used to say: "Better than bank interest, mate." The trick, I guess, is to weigh up the 35% return against a term deposit account.
The other factor, of course, is whether your patience can ride out a possible 18-month wait - something most punters are not overly keen to do.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Footy finals hype good for punters
After some unpredictable weeks leading into the finals - the final rounds are always like that - finals time is great for value.
Let's be clear, there will be upsets.
BUT ...
So often in a two-horse race, the media will look for ways the underdog can win. It makes sense for them to do that, to generate interest, to embrace fans of both sides, and thereby generate maximum interest in an event which will lead the news for an entire week - and more in the case of the grand final.
What this means is that odds can become distorted. Take this week's AFL preliminary final for example.
Any other round and I'd suggest St Kilda would be shorter than $1.37 (quoted on sportsbet.com.au). But the Bulldogs are coming off a win, and if they believe the press, they're a good chance of beating the hot premiership favourites.
I'd suggest the $1.37 is terrific odds.
To bust my theory, in the rugby league Parramatta seems to be on a roll. Many have written off the Gold Coast Titans in Sydney. I'd reckon here the $3.35 quoted for the Titans is well over the odds in what should be considered a 50-50 battle.
This, for mine, is the value bet of the weekend.
Let's be clear, there will be upsets.
BUT ...
So often in a two-horse race, the media will look for ways the underdog can win. It makes sense for them to do that, to generate interest, to embrace fans of both sides, and thereby generate maximum interest in an event which will lead the news for an entire week - and more in the case of the grand final.
What this means is that odds can become distorted. Take this week's AFL preliminary final for example.
Any other round and I'd suggest St Kilda would be shorter than $1.37 (quoted on sportsbet.com.au). But the Bulldogs are coming off a win, and if they believe the press, they're a good chance of beating the hot premiership favourites.
I'd suggest the $1.37 is terrific odds.
To bust my theory, in the rugby league Parramatta seems to be on a roll. Many have written off the Gold Coast Titans in Sydney. I'd reckon here the $3.35 quoted for the Titans is well over the odds in what should be considered a 50-50 battle.
This, for mine, is the value bet of the weekend.
Bad beat city
Nobody likes a bad beat, right?
Surely, there are exceptions.
While this blog will talk about all sports, including poker, I couldn't help but kick off by relaying an email conversation I had with a friend who copped a run of bad poker beats while sitting at a cash table recently.
"Last week I got wrecked," he says.
"Lost several hundred in a live cash game!!! Pocket jacks, raise pre-flop, caller with K-Q, hit trips on flop but he hits 10 on turn for straight."
It gets worse: "Later, A3 SUITED, flop nut flush with J, 2, 4 on board. One called with pocket 2s, so he had trips, big blind called with J-4 so had 2 pair. Raise, resaise call call. Turn 4, so my flush is busted by two full houses."
Can't help feel for the guy: "Then I raise on another hand AK, get called by A10 and 6,8 (don’t ask). Guy hits 10. Sometimes you cannot win no matter what."
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson was on television the other night talking about mathematical probability. He said it was inevitable to eventually receive a run of bad cards.
So if you've got a bad beat story, feel free to let me know. I'll listen!
Surely, there are exceptions.
While this blog will talk about all sports, including poker, I couldn't help but kick off by relaying an email conversation I had with a friend who copped a run of bad poker beats while sitting at a cash table recently.
"Last week I got wrecked," he says.
"Lost several hundred in a live cash game!!! Pocket jacks, raise pre-flop, caller with K-Q, hit trips on flop but he hits 10 on turn for straight."
It gets worse: "Later, A3 SUITED, flop nut flush with J, 2, 4 on board. One called with pocket 2s, so he had trips, big blind called with J-4 so had 2 pair. Raise, resaise call call. Turn 4, so my flush is busted by two full houses."
Can't help feel for the guy: "Then I raise on another hand AK, get called by A10 and 6,8 (don’t ask). Guy hits 10. Sometimes you cannot win no matter what."
Chris "Jesus" Ferguson was on television the other night talking about mathematical probability. He said it was inevitable to eventually receive a run of bad cards.
So if you've got a bad beat story, feel free to let me know. I'll listen!
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