Australian Idol form guide: Top 8

I started this, so I guess I'd better keep it up.


This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.


Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.

After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.

The form:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.45; Sportingbet $2.75; Betfair $2.94

He's been the favourite all along but after he messed up his song last week, there's some value floating around, especially with Betfair which is offering a nice dividend. He'll bounce back and is highly favoured to be in the top three at the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $3.25; Sportingbet $3; Betfair $4

Hayley is emerging as the biggest threat to Stan and that's reflected in the odds. She's come in from $21 before the final 12 was chosen to almost unbackable odds. Her personality is contagious and she's improving as the weeks go by. She's likely to be the girls' best hope.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $8; Sportingbet $6.50; Betfair $14

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Wingham boy is the idol darkhorse and is not taking too many risks with his odds, particularly seeing that other agencies are offering more than double the $6.50 on offer with Sullivan. "While there is no doubt that Stan Walker and Hayley are worthy favourites, James is looking the most likely outside this pair," he says.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $7; Sportingbet $7; Betfair $7.80

Nathan has consistently been around the $6-7 mark and continues to hover as an outside threat to the top two. The boy can sing and he's shaken off Dicko's "gay" tag with admirable grace. We've tipped him to outlast Kim Cooper who was outstanding last week. It's tough to predict how he'll resonate with voters, so it's a week-to-week prospect from here on in.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8.50; Sportingbet $8; Betfair $23

Wow. What's with the $23 at Betfair? Kim was bottom three two weeks in a row and scraped through. But she's lifted her game to a standard many thought she was capable of in early rounds of the betting. Like Nathan, it's a week-to-week prospect from the North Queenslander.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $10; Sportingbet $10; Betfair $7.80

The brickie was an early favourite, but has lost plenty of favour with punters. There's still plenty of money being held by the bookies for this Aussie battler, but his lack of experience is starting to let him down a bit as he's exposed by more-accomplished performers.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $14; Sportingbet $13; Betfair $23

Still the dark horse for mine. His humble approach wins him plenty of favour, but he'll need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat if he's to outlast the majority of the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $12; Sportingbet $14; Betfair $16.50

It's remarkable that someone who hasn't yet appeared in the bottom three can be regarded the rank outsider with the bookies. Her personality is dragging her through the competition and if she can now pull out something special, her odds might again drop. But it's unlikely she can take the title. Each way odds might be the best option for Kate.