Saturday, October 24, 2009

Cricket win helps the balance

We were in danger of going backwards last night after Central Coast imploded in the soccer, but Brett Lee came to our rescue in the Champions League cricket.

NSW brought us home a $3.10 return on our speculator.

So if you have any late mail on the track this afternoon, be sure to let me and readers of the Aussiepunt blog know.

I still like Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate, but there's virtually no talk of it going into the race. Perhaps people feel it's better suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.

A tip for anybody who might be interested: Sportsbet has a fairly good promotion, allowing its members to tip on each race on the Melbourne card. It's free to enter and there's a $70,000-odd worth of prizes at the end of it.

I figure I've got nothing to lose by giving it a bash!

Friday, October 23, 2009

Smith's chip promo ... now that's creative!

Now this is creative.

Smith's goes out to find a new chip flavour and throws it out to the people.

People argue about which of four finalist chip flavours are best - the coat of arms flavour; late night kebab; popcorn; or caesar salad.

Sportingbet Australia saw an opportunity, and has consequently opened a book on which one will win.

They've got the late night kebab and coat of arms fighting for favouritism, and why not: They're basically a variation on barbecue flavour. If popcorn wins, you'll get $4 in the running, and $4.50 if you like salad in a chip.

“This competition has created great debate around the country and punters have been keen to match their tastebuds with their wallets,” CEO Michael Sullivan said.

“We’ve had plenty of phone calls from punters wanting to back their personal favourites.”

Central Coast worth looking at in soccer

Central Coast Mariners are worth looking at in tonight's game versus the Newcastle Jets.

Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.

Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.

Central Coast is still paying $2.60.

And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.

In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.

AAMI Vase latest market

The Cox Plate is not the only race of significance tomorrow:

Sportingbet Australia punters have backed Moonee Valley specialist Carrara in from $5 to $4 for tomorrow’s AAMI Vase.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said history was on the Tony Vasil trained gallopers side.

“Nine of the last twelve winners of this race have come through the Caulfield Guineas and there’s plenty of smart money for Carrara,” said Sullivan.

“While he has to be a slight doubt at the trip he could just get a soft lead and has definitely shown a liking for the track.”

Extra Zero is an easing $3.50 favourite for the AAMI Vase.

AAMI Vase
Sportingbet Australia Market
Extra Zero $3.50
Carrara $4.40
Viking Legend $4.80
Miss With Attitude $6.50
Spacecraft $7.50
Hanks $8.50
Morossa $26
Rivers Lane $31

Whobe drifting by the minute

Here's the latest releast from Sportingbet Australia, which indicates there will be some good odds floating around, no matter which horse you fancy in the Cox Plate:

Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou continues to drift in betting markets as punters swarm to back Heart of Dreams and last year’s runner up Zipping.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were betting all around the favourite who has blown from $2.50 to $3.20 following the barrier draw on Tuesday.

“Whobegotyou has been unlayable since the barrier draw as a host of other runners have been crunched in the market,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have launched at Heart of Dreams who has shortened from $8.50 on Sunday to his current price of $5.50 and there has been plenty of smart money put on him.

“Zipping has also been backed from $21 to $15 as punters look for quality weight for age performers.”

Sullivan said he expected the tide to turn at some point and punters would step into Whobegotyou tomorrow.

“He is still the best horse in the race for mine and he is four from four at the Valley so there is little doubt there will be money for him tomorrow,” Sullivan said.

“He is still our worst result as punters have been backing him for months and I think they will step in again tomorrow to make him a complete strip out if he salutes.”

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.20
Heart Of Dreams 5.50
Speed Gifted 11.00
So You Think 11.00
Scenic Shot 14.00
El Segundo 15.00
Zipping 15.00
Vision And Power 16.00
Rock Kingdom 17.00
Black Piranha 18.00
Manhattan Rain 21.00
Road To Rock 26.00
Nom De Jeu 71.00
Sir Slick 151.00

Cox Plate markets start to take shape

And here they come ... the betting movements on the Cox plate have started. Here's the first statement of the day, from IASbet.

Melbourne, 23 October 2009 - As racing's focus turns to Moonee Valley and the Cox Plate IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read says you shouldn't overlook the obvious when it comes to assessing the race.

Whobegotyou ($3) has run at the track four times for four wins, he won the Yalumba Stakes last start and is a deserving favourite.

Read suggests sticking to the local hopes with Heart Of Dreams ($5.50), Zipping ($15), and El Segundo ($15) all creating interest.

El Segundo has won the race before, Zipping was second last year and Heart Of Dreams has been running great races in all the key lead ups."

Bart Cummings three year old So You Think ($15 into $11) has been one of the better backed runners and as we learnt last week, ignore Bart at your peril!

The Schweppes Stakes (1200m) should be a fantastic race according to Read.

"This is a Group One field in a Group Two race," Read said. "Lucky Secret ($3.30) and Apache Cat ($3.60) must be respected with fantastic Moonee Valley records, but Light Fantastic ($13) and Danleigh ($9) represent the value. Danleigh won the Manikato Stakes over the same Distance at the Valley a month ago and should again be prominent. "

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Random integrity comment

This has nothing to do with this blog's usual content stream, but I note there are moves to tighten laws on streaming of information.

It's about time we got rid of people posting incredulous reviews about products they have never seen, let alone tested or used. You won't see any of that rubbish here.

For the sake of full disclosure, here's how this blog works: If you click on a Google ad, I get a few cents. Last time I looked, there was about $6 in the account.

If you open an account after clicking on the affiliate ads at the side of the page, I get a commission. I'm not sure how much because it hasn't happened yet, and frankly, I'm not worried if it ever happens.

The bottom line: This site is for fun. I do it because I enjoy it. This is an open invitation to join in the banter, offer fellow punters a piece of advice, a tip, an observation, friendly fire, whatever takes your fancy.

And my only advice for now: Bet only what you can afford. If it's not enjoyable, don't do it.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Cox Plate odds

In terms of Australian sport, it's all about racing over the next couple of weeks, at least until the end of the Spring Carnival. And the next big race on the calendar is the Cox Plate.

There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.

Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:

Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.

“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.

“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.

“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.

“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

NSW good bet to win champions league

Any Twenty20 bet in cricket is fraught with danger, but we think New South Wales has both the form and the side which can beat anybody on an even playing field.

The bowling attack is by far supreme to any other. Lee, Clark, Bollinger and Hauritz could well be Australia's bowling lineup, as could Warner, Hughes and Katich at the top order. Neither can we underestimate the all-round ability of Moises Henriques.

Victoria is a threat. Cameron White, Brad Hodge and David Hussey can tear an attack apart, and they have Siddle and Harwood who can keep opposition lineups quiet, despite Harwood going for 38 off his three overs against Cape Cobras last time they met.

Cape Cobras are similarly dangerous, in that Herschell Gibbs, JP Duminy and Puttick can move the scoring along early. Zondeki has been bowling okay, but it's hard to see them bowling too many sides out cheaply. It's their batting which can cause real problems.

Trinidad and Tobago has been the real surprise packet, and like any decent Twenty20 side, can get a move on if things go right.

Given the inconsistency of the competition, and the somewhat random nature of this form of cricket, we'll be having no more than a speculator (ie, 5% of our bankroll). But all things fair and even, we should be on a winner with New South Wales, and I'm tipping it will be against the Cape Cobras.

Latest odds are as follows:
New South Wales $3.10
Victoria $3.50
Trinidad & Tobago $3.60
Cape Cobras $4.25

Monday, October 19, 2009

Latest Cox Plate movements

At Aussiepunt, we'll be following racing market fluctuations over the coming week. But following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia which give a good indication of how people see this weekend's Cox Plate in its early phases of development:

Lloyd Williams’ horse Zipping has been heavily backed to go one better than last year and win the Cox Plate shortening from $21 to $16 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Zipping had been the best backed runner alongside favourite Whobegotyou in the last 24 hours.

“Zipping’s run in the Cox Plate was enormous last year and with him being the only survivor from the placegetters from last year, punters have stepped in,” Sullivan said.

“We took bets of $60,000 to $3000, $20,000 to $1000 and a number of other good sized bets as the price trimmed up to $16.

“He has shown enough this time in to suggest he will run a big race and the stable knows how to get them ready for the big races.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou remained Sportingbet’s worst result and there was still strong money for the favourite at $2.50 this week.

“Whobegotyou has been our worst result for a long time and punters have kept coming for him,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

Whobegotyou 2.50
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Speed Gifted 8.00
El Segundo 10.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Black Piranha 16.00
So You Think 17.00
Rock Kingdom 21.00
Efficient 26.00
Viewed 31.00
Vigor 31.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Roman Emperor 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 61.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Jolies Shinju 101.00

Australian Idol form guide: Final 6

I didn't put up a new form guide for Australian Idol last week because it all seemed too hard - not putting up the form, but deciding where everyone was at.

But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.

So here's the form:

Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.

Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.

Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.

James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.

Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.

Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Four weeks worth of winners!

Aussiepunt has tipped followers winners four weeks in a row.

As readers know, each Friday we invite a guest tipster. We try to find people who have a bit of a clue, and it's proven worthwhile.

This week, Haydn Lane from IASbet knew the pressure was on. Three guest tipsters before him had sent our bankroll moving forward so he went in search of a few winners from the racing stable of the betting pit.

His leading racing tips, Shamoline Warrior and First Command both ran home, giving us a stress free weekend, and shooting our bankroll 30% further into the black.

The only let down was Jorge Lorenzo who, as watchers of this afternoon's Moto GP will know, skidded off the track on the first turn of the race.

For anyone who followed Haydn in the Caulfield Cup (and we're sorry we didn't) would have had an each way bet on Viewed, making their weekend even better.

At Aussiepunt, we share tips because we love what we do. That's why they're free. Here's some pretty good reasons to share the secret:

Week 1: Aussiepunt starts with a bankroll of $100. AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell tips two from four winners, including a 10-1 shot, spiralling our bankroll forward 67%.

Week 2: Matt Campbell from Sportsbet gives us only two tips. But one of them is Speed Gifted which runs home at 6-1. Our bankroll takes another 73% boost.

Week 3: Michael Sullivan, CEO from Sportingbet Australia gives us three tips. The two horses lose, although Tootsie runs second giving us each way odds. He makes up for it by tipping the soccer draw between the Socceroos and the Netherlands. Bankroll up 16%.

Week 4: Haydn Lane from IASbet and Sportsbet picks two winners which run home at $3.60 and $2.50 (on the tote, some might have taken higher odds with bookies earlier). Bankroll up 31%.

Bankroll boosts to some might seem smaller than they should be. But our formula is conservative to prepare us for possible losses. We put 10% on each of our guest tipsters tips, which mean we rarely invest more than 30% of our bankroll on any given weekend.

In addition to the above, we've tipped winners in rugby league, Australian Idol, cricket, rugby union and television. We've provided form guides for cricket, golf, football, politics, poker and other events. And we'll continue to do so.

Our bankroll sits triple what it started at. And we've taken some unlucky beats with narrow losses in cricket and footy.

But therein lies our mission: To gamble responsibly, having plenty of fun along the way.