KFC Big Bash market ... get on quick

I'm not usually keen on futures markets, but this one is great value. Western Australia overnight - thanks probably to commentary from Mark Waugh who said he'd placed a bet at $9 - has firmed two points to win the KFC Big Bash.

Western Australia has won only one of its three games, but has struck some bad luck with Chris Gayle's injury and other factors.

But they're a terrific side and with the Marsh brothers hitting fantastic form in their last win against Victoria and with Gayle likely to return in their next encounter, they're a real chance.

They'll have to win four games straight, but that's not beyond their well-rounded outfit.

They're still at $7 with Sportsbet, and $6.60 with Betfair, but I wouldn't expect those odds to remain intact for too long. Now's the time to get on, if only for a speculator - we'd suggest 5% of your bankroll.

On a slight tangent, it was interesting to see Queensland last night and the irony of their management policies. It's the side which couldn't buy a Sheffield Shield win in the 70s and 80s, despite some of the world's best players chipping in - Viv Richards not being the least.

Now, they're the only team in the KFC Big Bash not to have an international import. The irony is, it won't matter. They still won't win.

That said, James Hopes is terrific. I look forward to his presence in the Australian one-day team. Let's hope Watson doesn't steal his place.

How will Darren Ferguson hold up?

Neal, quoted below, is our guest tipster this weekend. He's actively promoting new markets for Victor Chandler. And given there's no racing, all attention is being put on the football.

This is their latest release:

Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.

“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”

Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.

Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?

Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10

Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.

Magic Millions 2yo classic

And from the same bookmaker, here's the market movements for the Magic Millions 2-year-old race at the Gold Coast, Australia:

Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.

Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.

“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.

“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.

“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”

Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.

“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.

“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”

There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.

MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00

Love Conquers All is Magic Millions favourite

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia with the latest market movements for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, Sydney, Australia, this weekend:

The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.

“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.

“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”

Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.

“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.

MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00

How we work our bankroll

Friday guest tipping is up and running again, so I thought it might be worth a quick refresher about how we manage our bankroll, particularly if you want to follow us.

We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:

* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.

* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.

* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.

Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.

Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.

Free Friday Guest Tipster is Neal Wilkins

It was minus 5 degrees from where Neal Wilkins gave me a call earlier this week.

Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.

For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.

Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.

Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.

Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.

Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.

As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.

We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)

And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.

Good luck!

* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.

Mike Phelan seems set to take over at Burnley FC

When the market was first opened by Victor Chandler on Tuesday, I said it would be nice to have some inside information.

Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.

Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:

Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.

Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”

Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1

Free tips from Neal Wilkins this Friday

This Friday we start up our "Friday Guest Tipster" column again. Last year, guest tipsters helped build our bankroll with a conservative strategy by 300%.

Let's hope we can do that in 2010.

Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.

He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.

Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.

Australian contender title favourite is Kariz Kariuki

For non-Australian readers, this is a reality boxing show aired on pay television. Boxers were in a knockout-style competition and the final will be aired live on Monday night. The winner gets some money and a pro bout.

While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:

Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.

“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.

“He has to start favourite on that alone.”

Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.

“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.

“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”

AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70

Mike Phelan and Steve Coppell favourites for Burnley job

I wish I had some inside information, but this new market will be of interest to English football fans:
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.

Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”

Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1

Betting in the run

Traditionally, we've been taught to bet before the contest begins.

Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.

Is it worth it?

The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.

Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.

Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.

It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.

Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.

In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.

Betting tip: Know your opposition

How often do you see odds posted as a result of media hype and/or parochial influence.

For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.

You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.

But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.

Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.

This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.

Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?

Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.

Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.

Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.

In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.

Was Soderling a good bet against Federer?

Well done to anyone who took the $3.65 on offer for Robin Soderling to beat Roger Federer in Abu Dhabi.

But I still question whether it was a good bet.

Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.

But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).

You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."

But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.

Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.

Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.

Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.

If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html