Free sports betting strategy and winning advice

Here's a free copy this sports pick wagering and betting system from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com.

Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.

It's worth a read:

Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.

Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.

The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.

Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.

2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.

So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.

The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.

Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.

As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".

For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.

In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!

5 Stars:

If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.

4 Stars:

If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!

3 Stars:

If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.

Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.

2 Stars:

If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.

1 Star:

These are competitors we recommend you avoid.

Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.

Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.

Good luck, and bring on the Games!

Australian of the Year set to be Jon Dee

Seems Australian punters think political correctness will win out at the announcement of the top prize for 2010. The statement is from Sportingbet:

Bookmakers have installed Planet Ark founder Jon Dee as a $2.50 favourite to be named Australian Of The Year 2010.

Sportingbet Australia CE Michael Sullivan said the recycling champion looked the standout amongst a quality field of nominees.

“Jon Dee has been a champion of the environment, not just in Australia but Worldwide,” said Sullivan.

“Given the focus that is currently on environmental issues and the great work he has done, he looks very hard to beat for this honour.”

Others in betting contention include Mental Health expert Patrick McGorry ($4.00) and Alzheimer’s researcher Ralph Martins ($5.50).

2010 AUSTRALIAN OF THE YEAR
Sportingbet Australia Market
Jon Dee (NSW) Environmental Campaigner 2.50
Patrick McGorry (Vic) Mental Health 4.00
Ralph Martins (WA) Alzheimers Expert 5.50
Julian Burton (SA) Charity Founder 5.50
Bruce Englefield (Tas) Tasmanian Devil Advocate 7.50
Warwick Thornton (NT) Filmmaker 14.00
Patricia Easteal (ACT) Human Rights Advocate 17.00
Chris Sarra (Qld) Indigenous Educator 17.00

Roy Jones Jnr a good chance to knock out Danny Green

I watched a documentary about the two fighters last night and you'd have to say Jones Jnr is a class above Green. If parochial bets are keeping the odds out somewhat, a Jones Jnr KO might offer good value.

Here's what one of the bookies has to say:

The heavy support for American Roy Jones Jnr to score a knockout victory over Danny Green continued overnight at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some big overnight bets had forced the price of a Jones knockout in from $3.35 to $2.75.

“We thought the Jones knockout support would end with yesterday’s $10,000 at $3.50,” said Sullivan.

“But another client had a further $10,000 at $3.35 and followed up with $5000 at $3.00 as soon as the price shortened further.

“Still, with Green never been knocked out in his career, we’re more than happy to accommodate the punters.”

Jones is still a dominant $1.30 favourite to win the fight with punters uninterested in backing Green at $3.50.

Roy Jones Jnr to knock out Danny Green

A points decision is still the favoured result, in the favour of Roy Jones Jnr, but punters seem keen to bet he'll knock out his Australian opponent tomorrow night.

Jones has been backed from $3.50 to $3.35 with Sportingbet Australia to knock out Danny Green.

Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan said one punter had placed $10,000 on a Jones knockout victory at $3.50.

“It’s a very confident bet to say Green will have the lights turned off for the first time in his career,” said Sullivan.

“A Jones win by knockout has clearly been the most popular option with punters with plenty of other good sized bets placed on top of the $25,000 to $10,000.”

Jones is a hot $1.33 favourite to win the fight at Sportingbet with Green a $3.30 outsider.

Hayley still a good bet in Australian Idol

Following is a press release from Sportingbet. Maybe I've got it wrong, and plenty evidently think I have, but I said a long time ago in the competition it would be a battle between Stan and someone else.

Given that it's a game of demographics as much as it is talent, I still have Hayley an even money chance, which makes the $4.50 a good bet.

Gold Coast soul singer Stan Walker is a raging $1.18 favourite to be the new Australian Idol after another impressive display on Sunday night.

Walker is in a head to head battle with Sydney’s Hayley Warner who is a $4.50 outsider at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said weight of money had ensured Walker would go into next week’s finale as a clear favourite.

“The punters have spoken with all the big money going on Walker over the past couple of weeks shortening his price right up to $1.18,” Sullivan said.

“He does deserve to be favourite but Hayley has been brilliant as well and I am more than happy to be on her to cause an upset.

“Her single was arguably better than Stan’s and the contestant with the best single has generally gone onto win so the $4.50 is clearly the value for punters.”

Leading sire odds for 2009/10

There's a fair amount of the season to go, but the front runner looks a good thing to me. Feel free to differ:

Sportingbet Australia has installed boom sire Encosta De Lago as a $2.35 favourite to be leading sire by prizemoney for season 2009/10.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Encosta De Lago deserved his place at the head of the market despite presently trailing Street Cry by almost $2 Million.

“Encosta De Lago’s record speaks for itself, having topped the table for the last two seasons,” said Sullivan.

“Street Cry’s earnings have been inflated by Shocking’s Melbourne Cup victory and we think the incumbent champ can run him down.”

Street Cry is rated a $2.75 chance to hang on to his lead while, prolific sire of 2 year olds, More Than Ready looking good value at $10.00 with races such as the Golden Slipper still to come.

2009/10 LEADING SIRE BY PRIZEMONEY
Encosta De Lago 2.35
Street Cry 2.75
Redoutes Choice 5.50
Any Other Individual Sire 6.00
More Than Ready (usa) 10.00
Scenic 15.00
Lonhro 26.00

Free sports tips for November 7 and 8

Here's some thoughts about the weekend. Feel free to chime in.

Punters seem keen on Number 5, Gold Salute in the 5th at Flemington tomorrow. There will also be plenty of money floating around for the Patinack Classic, the last big race of the Spring season. And a fair chunk of it will be on the "people's horse", Apache Cat. Look for it to finish late.

Here's something different: A dog. We haven't touched the dish lickers, but Race 4 at Wentworth Park seems to have a special. It's No 2, Amity Bale.

I'm not as bullish as some on Casey Stoner to win the Moto GP. I think after Valentino Rossi made certain of the world championship crown, he'll now be keen to lash out on the Valencia track.

I think India will be a fair thing to beat Australia in the next one dayer to take the series to a decider. And Chelsea at better than even money seem like fair odds to beat Manchester United. Keep in mind though, that this will take on derby proportions, and they often end up in a draw.

Australian Idol fiasco

Here's the verdict from one bookmaker after last night's Australian Idol debacle which saw Toby Moulton withdraw.

I'd be dirty if my money was with James Johnston to be eliminated. After all, that's the way the vote went.

Regardless, here's the verdict:

ELIMINATION BETS REFUNDED AS TOBY WITHDRAWS

Sportingbet Australia has refunded all of Sunday’s Australian Idol elimination bets following the shock withdrawal of Adelaide schoolteacher Toby Moulton.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said refunding the money was the right thing to do.

“It’s not the punters fault that one contestant decided to withdraw from the competition,” said Sullivan.

“The only fair thing to do was cancel all bets.”

Stan Walker is a $2 favourite to win Australian Idol while James Johnston is the $1.75 favourite to be eliminated next week.

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.00
Hayley Warner 2.50
Nathan Brake 6.50
James Johnston 8.00

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 8 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
James Johnston 1.75
Nathan Brake 2.25
Hayley Warner 11.00
Stan Walker 14.00

Not a great weekend

As we always say, we'll tell it warts at all at Aussiepunt, and Derby Day wasn't that great for us.

We backed Rockferry to win the Victoria Derby which wasn't a terrific choice. But we've lost 7% of our bankroll, and it's time to move on - get back on the horse, as they say.

Tuesday is the biggest race day on the calendar and we'll be spending a portion of tomorrow trying to find some winners for everybody.

We'll give you all the news from corporate bookmakers to see where the money's going for the Melbourne Cup. Shocking is no doubt firming after a good run at the weekend. Expect Viewed to start favourite over Alcopop. Value will be with Master O'Reilly and Mourilyan.

But rest assured, we won't be forgetting the other races on the card.

Efficient a gamble in Melbourne Cup

If you're keen to back Efficient in the Melbourne Cup, now seems to be the time to do it:

With 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient still having to pass a vet examination before he is cleared to run on Tuesday, Sporting Australia CEO Michael Sullivan has pledged to refund any bets on him if he doesn’t line up for the Cup.

Sullivan said any bets up to $500 placed between 3.30pm on Thursday, when doubts over the horses arose and Saturday evening when the final field was declared would be refunded if he didn’t overcome the injury.

“Efficient has been posted as unlikely and normally at this stage there are no scratching refunds or deductions on other horses prices if a horse is withdrawn but I think in this case refunding punters money is the right thing to do,” Sullivan said.

“There are some doubts over the horse and many punters like to get their Cup bets on early so we are just providing them with the assurance they won’t do their money if he is ruled out.

“Obviously all bets on any scratched runner are refunded once the final field is declared but that is not until Saturday night.”

Effiecient blew from $6.00 to 8.50 at Sportingbet Australia yesterday as punters rushed to back other contenders.

“Punters put big money down yesterday on Viewed and Alcopop who are now $5.50 joint favourites while there was also strong support for Roman Emperor who shortened from $12 to $8.50,” Sullivan said.

“If all is well with Efficient though, punters are now getting great value about a former winner, who is in great form and obviously proven at the two miles.”

2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Viewed 5.50
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 8.50
Efficient (unlikely) 8.50
Vigor 14.00
Daffodil 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Mourilyan 23.00
Kirklees 23.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Capecover 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Kibbutz 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Hume 61.00
Others 81.00 Plus

Two-horse race in Victoria Derby

Seems there are some big bets going down for Rockferry in the Victoria Derby, but Shamoline Warrior has not been forgotten.

Here's the latest from Sportsbet:

“We’ve taken a large amount of bets since the barrier draw,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane, “yet from speaking to some of the big punters, they’re waiting to see how the track will rate after the first couple of races before getting stuck in.”

“In the Derby, second-favourite Rockferry is currently our single worst result. He was a sure thing beaten in the Geelong Classic and the extra trip and wide track should suit him to a tee.

“Shamoline Warrior has won his last two in dominant fashion and is a deserved favourite, but personally I think he’ll have to bring out his very best to hold out Rockferry.”

Big bets so far:

$10,000 multi bet to win $135K – Shamoline Warrior (Derby) into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$2,000 multi bet to win $200K – Shamoline Warrior (Derby), into Alcopop (Cup), into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$733 multi bet to win $100K – Monaco Consul (Derby), into Alcopop (Cup), into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$5,000 multi bet to win $85K – Run For Naara (Wakeful), into Shamoline Warrior (Derby), into First Command (Salinger)
$6,000 each way on Rockferry at $9

Novelty bets for Victoria Derby Day

The betting market among corporate bookmakers has become hugely competitive, and everybody's looking at new ways to entice punters into having a lunge.

Sportsbet today released a heap of options which are likely to be repeated for the Melbourne Cup.

Here's a few:

Pick the star sign of the Derby winner, based on their foaling date.
Virgo $1.60 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Gathering, Our Heir Apparent, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend
Libra $3.60 Monaco Consul, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye
Scorpio $5.60 Rockferry, Prinsom

Will the Derby winner be posh or a pauper? Based on career earnings to date.
Posh ($195,000+ career earnings) $2.25 Onemorenomore, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend
Paupers (under $195,000) $1.65 The Rest

Will the Derby winner be a Cadet or a Corporal? Based on number of career runs to date.
Cadets (6 starts or less) $1.40 Monaco Consul, Our Heir Apparent, Rockferry, Shamoline Warrior
Coporals (7 starts plus) $3.00 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Gathering, Onemorenomore, Prinsom, Southern Skye, Viking Legend

Pick where the Derby winner is trained out of.
Victoria $1.65 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Prinsom, Rockferry, Shamoline Warrior
NSW $3.65 Gathering, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye, Viking Legend
NZ $5.00 Monaco Consul, Our Heir Apparent

In each of the Alpha-Bet markets below, punters can select the group from which the Derby winner will come from.
Jockey’s surname alpha-bet
Group A $2.95 Commanage Close, Monaco Consul, Rockferry Group B $3.75 Extra Zero, Gathering, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye
Group C $2.10 Our Heir Apparent, Prinsom, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend

Trainer's surname
Group A $2.50 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, ShamolineWarrior
Group B $2.45 Monaco Consul, Prinsom, Rockferry, Southern Skye Group C $3.65 Gathering, Onemorenomore, Our Heir Apparent, Viking Legend

Fancy one nag over another? Take your pick in the following Head to Head markets.

Shamoline Warrior vs Rockferry
Shamoline Warrior $1.55
Rockferry $2.45

Rockferry vs Monaco Consul
Rockferry $1.70
Monaco Consul $2.15

Southern Skye vs Our Heir Apparent
Southern Skye $1.90
Our Heir Apparent $1.90

Punters go early for Bart in Melbourne Cup

Bart Cummings has won the season's two major races. Punters think he's a fair bet to pick up a remarkable treble in the Melbourne Cup.

At $4.50, there are better bets for mine.

Bart Cummings has been posted as a $4.50 chance to complete a historic treble and win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had launched into Bart Cumming’s horses in both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate and were doing the same for next Tuesday’s big one.

“Bart Cummings is undoubtedly the best trainer of stayers we have ever seen and punters have had a fill up following him this Spring again,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have been backing all his runners for the Cup so we have posted a price of $4.50 for any one of his horses to give him another Cup win.

“Viewed and Roman Emperor are obviously his best chances after they ran the quinella in the Caulfield Cup but it would be silly to write off any of his chances.”

Sullivan said he expected punters to lap up the $4.50 on offer for the master trainer.

“Punters and particularly fans of Bart have full pockets following the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate wins and I would expect them to launch again for the Cup,” he said.

‘I can’t see many punters been willing to take the $1.20 about him not been able to get the job done a thirteenth time.”

Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Yes, Bart Cummings will win the Cup $4.50
No, Bart Cummings will not win the Cup $1.20

Betting reopens for Australian Idol elimination

We don't mind a bet on Australian Idol, so the following news from Sportingbet comes as welcome.

Our early tip: James Johnston won't get to sing next week.

Sportingbet Australia punters now have the opportunity to bet on Australian Idol eliminations following the show’s producers decision to extend voting until Friday night.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters would be pleased with the decision.

“The phone has rung off the hook with punters wanting to bet on the eliminations but with such a short voting window it was impossible to accommodate them on more than a limited basis,” said Sullivan.

“Idol elimination betting has been extremely popular in previous years and punters will be well pleased that it’s back to the old way of doing things.”

Sportingbet Australia expects Toby Moulton ($2.25) and James Johnston ($2.50) to fight out next week’s elimination while Stan Walker ($2.50) and Hayley Warner ($2.75) the favourites to be crowned 2009 Australian Idol.


2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 1 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Toby Moulton 2.25
James Johnston 2.50
Nathan Brake 5.50
Stan Walker 5.50
Hayley Warner 9.00


2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.50
Hayley Warner 2.75
Nathan Brake 4.00
James Johnston 8.00
Toby Moulton 9.00

Cricket win helps the balance

We were in danger of going backwards last night after Central Coast imploded in the soccer, but Brett Lee came to our rescue in the Champions League cricket.

NSW brought us home a $3.10 return on our speculator.

So if you have any late mail on the track this afternoon, be sure to let me and readers of the Aussiepunt blog know.

I still like Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate, but there's virtually no talk of it going into the race. Perhaps people feel it's better suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.

A tip for anybody who might be interested: Sportsbet has a fairly good promotion, allowing its members to tip on each race on the Melbourne card. It's free to enter and there's a $70,000-odd worth of prizes at the end of it.

I figure I've got nothing to lose by giving it a bash!

Central Coast worth looking at in soccer

Central Coast Mariners are worth looking at in tonight's game versus the Newcastle Jets.

Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.

Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.

Central Coast is still paying $2.60.

And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.

In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.

Cox Plate odds

In terms of Australian sport, it's all about racing over the next couple of weeks, at least until the end of the Spring Carnival. And the next big race on the calendar is the Cox Plate.

There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.

Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:

Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.

“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.

“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.

“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.

“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13