Following is a press release from Sportingbet. Maybe I've got it wrong, and plenty evidently think I have, but I said a long time ago in the competition it would be a battle between Stan and someone else.
Given that it's a game of demographics as much as it is talent, I still have Hayley an even money chance, which makes the $4.50 a good bet.
Gold Coast soul singer Stan Walker is a raging $1.18 favourite to be the new Australian Idol after another impressive display on Sunday night.
Walker is in a head to head battle with Sydney’s Hayley Warner who is a $4.50 outsider at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said weight of money had ensured Walker would go into next week’s finale as a clear favourite.
“The punters have spoken with all the big money going on Walker over the past couple of weeks shortening his price right up to $1.18,” Sullivan said.
“He does deserve to be favourite but Hayley has been brilliant as well and I am more than happy to be on her to cause an upset.
“Her single was arguably better than Stan’s and the contestant with the best single has generally gone onto win so the $4.50 is clearly the value for punters.”
Showing posts with label Australian Idol. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australian Idol. Show all posts
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Australian Idol odds
For mine, Toby has really made a farce of the entire series of Australian Idol. Here's the latest betting news anyway:
Gold Coast singer Stan Walker is a long odds on favourite to win Australian Idol after outshining his competitors on Sunday evening.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Stan had firmed from $2.00 to $1.40 following the show.
“Stan out sang them tonight but that’s only part of the reason we’ve shortened his price,” said Sullivan.
“We’re writing twenty bets on him to one on any other contestant.”
Sullivan did have some advice for punters who wanted to unload early on Stan.
“There’s no doubt that Stan is the frontrunner,” Sullivan said.
“But whoever does the best job of the winners single wins Idol year after year and we don’t get to hear those until next week.”
Wingham’s James Johnston is a $1.40 favourite to be eliminated from the show next week.
WINNER
Stan Walker 1.40
Hayley Warner 3.00
James Johnston 11.00
ELIMINATION 15 NOVEMBER
James Johnston 1.40
Hayley Warner 2.80
Stan Walker 17.00
Gold Coast singer Stan Walker is a long odds on favourite to win Australian Idol after outshining his competitors on Sunday evening.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Stan had firmed from $2.00 to $1.40 following the show.
“Stan out sang them tonight but that’s only part of the reason we’ve shortened his price,” said Sullivan.
“We’re writing twenty bets on him to one on any other contestant.”
Sullivan did have some advice for punters who wanted to unload early on Stan.
“There’s no doubt that Stan is the frontrunner,” Sullivan said.
“But whoever does the best job of the winners single wins Idol year after year and we don’t get to hear those until next week.”
Wingham’s James Johnston is a $1.40 favourite to be eliminated from the show next week.
WINNER
Stan Walker 1.40
Hayley Warner 3.00
James Johnston 11.00
ELIMINATION 15 NOVEMBER
James Johnston 1.40
Hayley Warner 2.80
Stan Walker 17.00
Monday, November 2, 2009
Australian Idol fiasco
Here's the verdict from one bookmaker after last night's Australian Idol debacle which saw Toby Moulton withdraw.
I'd be dirty if my money was with James Johnston to be eliminated. After all, that's the way the vote went.
Regardless, here's the verdict:
ELIMINATION BETS REFUNDED AS TOBY WITHDRAWS
Sportingbet Australia has refunded all of Sunday’s Australian Idol elimination bets following the shock withdrawal of Adelaide schoolteacher Toby Moulton.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said refunding the money was the right thing to do.
“It’s not the punters fault that one contestant decided to withdraw from the competition,” said Sullivan.
“The only fair thing to do was cancel all bets.”
Stan Walker is a $2 favourite to win Australian Idol while James Johnston is the $1.75 favourite to be eliminated next week.
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.00
Hayley Warner 2.50
Nathan Brake 6.50
James Johnston 8.00
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 8 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
James Johnston 1.75
Nathan Brake 2.25
Hayley Warner 11.00
Stan Walker 14.00
I'd be dirty if my money was with James Johnston to be eliminated. After all, that's the way the vote went.
Regardless, here's the verdict:
ELIMINATION BETS REFUNDED AS TOBY WITHDRAWS
Sportingbet Australia has refunded all of Sunday’s Australian Idol elimination bets following the shock withdrawal of Adelaide schoolteacher Toby Moulton.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said refunding the money was the right thing to do.
“It’s not the punters fault that one contestant decided to withdraw from the competition,” said Sullivan.
“The only fair thing to do was cancel all bets.”
Stan Walker is a $2 favourite to win Australian Idol while James Johnston is the $1.75 favourite to be eliminated next week.
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.00
Hayley Warner 2.50
Nathan Brake 6.50
James Johnston 8.00
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 8 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
James Johnston 1.75
Nathan Brake 2.25
Hayley Warner 11.00
Stan Walker 14.00
Monday, October 26, 2009
Betting reopens for Australian Idol elimination
We don't mind a bet on Australian Idol, so the following news from Sportingbet comes as welcome.
Our early tip: James Johnston won't get to sing next week.
Sportingbet Australia punters now have the opportunity to bet on Australian Idol eliminations following the show’s producers decision to extend voting until Friday night.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters would be pleased with the decision.
“The phone has rung off the hook with punters wanting to bet on the eliminations but with such a short voting window it was impossible to accommodate them on more than a limited basis,” said Sullivan.
“Idol elimination betting has been extremely popular in previous years and punters will be well pleased that it’s back to the old way of doing things.”
Sportingbet Australia expects Toby Moulton ($2.25) and James Johnston ($2.50) to fight out next week’s elimination while Stan Walker ($2.50) and Hayley Warner ($2.75) the favourites to be crowned 2009 Australian Idol.
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 1 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Toby Moulton 2.25
James Johnston 2.50
Nathan Brake 5.50
Stan Walker 5.50
Hayley Warner 9.00
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.50
Hayley Warner 2.75
Nathan Brake 4.00
James Johnston 8.00
Toby Moulton 9.00
Our early tip: James Johnston won't get to sing next week.
Sportingbet Australia punters now have the opportunity to bet on Australian Idol eliminations following the show’s producers decision to extend voting until Friday night.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters would be pleased with the decision.
“The phone has rung off the hook with punters wanting to bet on the eliminations but with such a short voting window it was impossible to accommodate them on more than a limited basis,” said Sullivan.
“Idol elimination betting has been extremely popular in previous years and punters will be well pleased that it’s back to the old way of doing things.”
Sportingbet Australia expects Toby Moulton ($2.25) and James Johnston ($2.50) to fight out next week’s elimination while Stan Walker ($2.50) and Hayley Warner ($2.75) the favourites to be crowned 2009 Australian Idol.
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 1 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Toby Moulton 2.25
James Johnston 2.50
Nathan Brake 5.50
Stan Walker 5.50
Hayley Warner 9.00
2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.50
Hayley Warner 2.75
Nathan Brake 4.00
James Johnston 8.00
Toby Moulton 9.00
Monday, October 19, 2009
Australian Idol form guide: Final 6
I didn't put up a new form guide for Australian Idol last week because it all seemed too hard - not putting up the form, but deciding where everyone was at.
But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.
So here's the form:
Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.
Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.
Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.
James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.
Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.
Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.
But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.
So here's the form:
Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.
Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.
Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.
James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.
Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.
Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Australian Idol form guide: Top 8
I started this, so I guess I'd better keep it up.
This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.
Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.
After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.
The form:
This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.
Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.
After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.
The form:
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.45; Sportingbet $2.75; Betfair $2.94
He's been the favourite all along but after he messed up his song last week, there's some value floating around, especially with Betfair which is offering a nice dividend. He'll bounce back and is highly favoured to be in the top three at the pointy end of the competition.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $3.25; Sportingbet $3; Betfair $4
Hayley is emerging as the biggest threat to Stan and that's reflected in the odds. She's come in from $21 before the final 12 was chosen to almost unbackable odds. Her personality is contagious and she's improving as the weeks go by. She's likely to be the girls' best hope.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $8; Sportingbet $6.50; Betfair $14
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Wingham boy is the idol darkhorse and is not taking too many risks with his odds, particularly seeing that other agencies are offering more than double the $6.50 on offer with Sullivan. "While there is no doubt that Stan Walker and Hayley are worthy favourites, James is looking the most likely outside this pair," he says.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $7; Sportingbet $7; Betfair $7.80
Nathan has consistently been around the $6-7 mark and continues to hover as an outside threat to the top two. The boy can sing and he's shaken off Dicko's "gay" tag with admirable grace. We've tipped him to outlast Kim Cooper who was outstanding last week. It's tough to predict how he'll resonate with voters, so it's a week-to-week prospect from here on in.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8.50; Sportingbet $8; Betfair $23
Wow. What's with the $23 at Betfair? Kim was bottom three two weeks in a row and scraped through. But she's lifted her game to a standard many thought she was capable of in early rounds of the betting. Like Nathan, it's a week-to-week prospect from the North Queenslander.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $10; Sportingbet $10; Betfair $7.80
The brickie was an early favourite, but has lost plenty of favour with punters. There's still plenty of money being held by the bookies for this Aussie battler, but his lack of experience is starting to let him down a bit as he's exposed by more-accomplished performers.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $14; Sportingbet $13; Betfair $23
Still the dark horse for mine. His humble approach wins him plenty of favour, but he'll need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat if he's to outlast the majority of the competition.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $12; Sportingbet $14; Betfair $16.50
It's remarkable that someone who hasn't yet appeared in the bottom three can be regarded the rank outsider with the bookies. Her personality is dragging her through the competition and if she can now pull out something special, her odds might again drop. But it's unlikely she can take the title. Each way odds might be the best option for Kate.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Final 9 Australian Idol form guide
Seemingly after much confusion, the Australian Idol market seems to be taking shape.
Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.
But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.
On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.
We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.
We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).
Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.
Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.
Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.
But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.
On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.
We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.
We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).
Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.
Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
The bankroll begins
Well, follow me, share the ups and downs, laugh at me, whatever you like. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is by working a $100 bankroll.
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
Australian Idol form guide
What a difference a week makes in the world of reality television. And what a vast spread of odds for the Australian Idol market. There’s definite value if you reckon you’ve got it nailed.
For those who care to listen however, here’s a special. I have no allegiance to any site, but sportsbet.com.au is offering head to head betting, and Stan Walker is at $1.60 up against Sabrina Batshon.
Sabrina was in the bottom three last week and is rated by betfair.com.au as second favourite to be eliminated this week, while Stan heads all markets as favourite to win the competition.
Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but it’s a standout for mine. Take the $1.60.
In terms of betting for the winner, I can tell you that the only one punters want to be on is Scott Newnham, the brickie who hasn’t sung before. He has a terrific following and carries the underdog tag – a big advantage in a popularity contest. About 40 per cent of all money laid this week was for Scott.
Meanwhile, here’s the weekly form guide.
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $3; Centrebet $3.25; Betfair $3.05
For those who care to listen however, here’s a special. I have no allegiance to any site, but sportsbet.com.au is offering head to head betting, and Stan Walker is at $1.60 up against Sabrina Batshon.
Sabrina was in the bottom three last week and is rated by betfair.com.au as second favourite to be eliminated this week, while Stan heads all markets as favourite to win the competition.
Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but it’s a standout for mine. Take the $1.60.
In terms of betting for the winner, I can tell you that the only one punters want to be on is Scott Newnham, the brickie who hasn’t sung before. He has a terrific following and carries the underdog tag – a big advantage in a popularity contest. About 40 per cent of all money laid this week was for Scott.
Meanwhile, here’s the weekly form guide.
Stan Walker: Sportsbet $3; Centrebet $3.25; Betfair $3.05
For his voice and onstage presence alone, this guy deserves his favouritism. But as we all know, this is as much about popularity as it is about talent. And Stan's not the sharpest tool in the shed. It remains to be seen whether his personality can mature as much as his performance skills as the contest wears on. It would be a big surprise if he's not in the top four, and anything can happen from there.
Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7; Centrebet $6; Betfair $5.70
Latest figures on Betfair show that the agency holds about $7000 on Idol. About $3000 of that is for Scott Newnham, which makes the $7 on Sportsbet great value. His popularity as an honest brickie has bought him some time to listen to voice coaches and improve his raw talent. If he can learn and improve, he's a top chance.
Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $8; Betfair $7.20
At 18, he's the kid with the most potential. Timing will be everything for Nathan. If he becomes vulnerable to elimination and pulls out one of his Queen-type numbers, he'll go close to making the final weeks of the competition. Again, Centrebet's $8 is probably over the odds.
Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $6; Betfair $7.80
Her confidence is a great thing when she gets on stage, but it's also likely to be her worst enemy. People like a battler, and Kim is not necessarily seen in that light. Young people carry the most weight in terms of voting power, and likelihood is that teenage girls won't always see looks and attitude as a good thing. The odds at this point are very slim given her current standing and status in the competition.
Kate Cook: Sportsbet $9; Centrebet $9; Betfair $8.60
The Queensland abbatoir worker from the bush is the dark horse. Her performance last week would have gained her a lot of fans and if she can continue to build, there's every chance she will progress further than many are thinking. Whether she can win, however, is another matter.
Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $6.50; Centrebet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
Betfair's odds of $9.40 are terrific on a girl who is warming herself to public appeal. Her honesty comes across and Aussies love a determined underdog, a tag which Hayley carries at this point. She will progress and is certainly one of the chances if she can improve her vocal skills to match her good-natured appeal.
Sabrina Batshon: Sportsbet $7.50; Centrebet $6; Betfair $9.40
Allow it to be repeated - this is a popularity contest as much as it is a talent quest. And Sabrina's cocky attitude wins her few fans. This showed last week when she narrowly avoided eviction. Unless she pulls out something extraordinary, chances are she has no more than two weeks left in the competition.
James Johnston: Sportsbet $10; Centrebet $11; Betfair $9.40
This kid doesn't have the same talent as some of the others, particularly Stan and Nathan. But don't count him out. The teen vote will stand him in good stead, and like a few of the others, his current fan base will buy him time. If he can improve his vocal skills, he's still not without a chance, but the odds are about right.
Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $16; Centrebet $21; Betfair $24
What a mixed bag in the betting for the teacher. As the only 30-year-old remaining in the group, he'll pick up a considerable portion of Casey's votes after he was eliminated last week. And his voice is already improving, as is his professionalism. The $24 isn't a bad bet, but it's worth watching how things progress over the next fortnight.
Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $26; Centrebet $17; Betfair $38
All that "soul man" stuff was an image disaster for this bloke, and it shows in the betting. But his performance two weeks ago won him plenty of support. Last week, however, he came back to reality with an ordinary showing, and it's likely he'll again be in the bottom three. It's a week-to-week prospect for Tim and it's unlikely he can win.
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