Final 9 Australian Idol form guide

Seemingly after much confusion, the Australian Idol market seems to be taking shape.

Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.

But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.

On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.

We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.

We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).

Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.

Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.

Australian Idol form guide

What a difference a week makes in the world of reality television. And what a vast spread of odds for the Australian Idol market. There’s definite value if you reckon you’ve got it nailed.

For those who care to listen however, here’s a special. I have no allegiance to any site, but sportsbet.com.au is offering head to head betting, and Stan Walker is at $1.60 up against Sabrina Batshon.

Sabrina was in the bottom three last week and is rated by betfair.com.au as second favourite to be eliminated this week, while Stan heads all markets as favourite to win the competition.

Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but it’s a standout for mine. Take the $1.60.

In terms of betting for the winner, I can tell you that the only one punters want to be on is Scott Newnham, the brickie who hasn’t sung before. He has a terrific following and carries the underdog tag – a big advantage in a popularity contest. About 40 per cent of all money laid this week was for Scott.

Meanwhile, here’s the weekly form guide.

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $3; Centrebet $3.25; Betfair $3.05

For his voice and onstage presence alone, this guy deserves his favouritism. But as we all know, this is as much about popularity as it is about talent. And Stan's not the sharpest tool in the shed. It remains to be seen whether his personality can mature as much as his performance skills as the contest wears on. It would be a big surprise if he's not in the top four, and anything can happen from there.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7; Centrebet $6; Betfair $5.70

Latest figures on Betfair show that the agency holds about $7000 on Idol. About $3000 of that is for Scott Newnham, which makes the $7 on Sportsbet great value. His popularity as an honest brickie has bought him some time to listen to voice coaches and improve his raw talent. If he can learn and improve, he's a top chance.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $8; Betfair $7.20

At 18, he's the kid with the most potential. Timing will be everything for Nathan. If he becomes vulnerable to elimination and pulls out one of his Queen-type numbers, he'll go close to making the final weeks of the competition. Again, Centrebet's $8 is probably over the odds.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $6; Betfair $7.80

Her confidence is a great thing when she gets on stage, but it's also likely to be her worst enemy. People like a battler, and Kim is not necessarily seen in that light. Young people carry the most weight in terms of voting power, and likelihood is that teenage girls won't always see looks and attitude as a good thing. The odds at this point are very slim given her current standing and status in the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $9; Centrebet $9; Betfair $8.60

The Queensland abbatoir worker from the bush is the dark horse. Her performance last week would have gained her a lot of fans and if she can continue to build, there's every chance she will progress further than many are thinking. Whether she can win, however, is another matter.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $6.50; Centrebet $7.50; Betfair $9.40

Betfair's odds of $9.40 are terrific on a girl who is warming herself to public appeal. Her honesty comes across and Aussies love a determined underdog, a tag which Hayley carries at this point. She will progress and is certainly one of the chances if she can improve her vocal skills to match her good-natured appeal.

Sabrina Batshon: Sportsbet $7.50; Centrebet $6; Betfair $9.40

Allow it to be repeated - this is a popularity contest as much as it is a talent quest. And Sabrina's cocky attitude wins her few fans. This showed last week when she narrowly avoided eviction. Unless she pulls out something extraordinary, chances are she has no more than two weeks left in the competition.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $10; Centrebet $11; Betfair $9.40

This kid doesn't have the same talent as some of the others, particularly Stan and Nathan. But don't count him out. The teen vote will stand him in good stead, and like a few of the others, his current fan base will buy him time. If he can improve his vocal skills, he's still not without a chance, but the odds are about right.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $16; Centrebet $21; Betfair $24

What a mixed bag in the betting for the teacher. As the only 30-year-old remaining in the group, he'll pick up a considerable portion of Casey's votes after he was eliminated last week. And his voice is already improving, as is his professionalism. The $24 isn't a bad bet, but it's worth watching how things progress over the next fortnight.

Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $26; Centrebet $17; Betfair $38

All that "soul man" stuff was an image disaster for this bloke, and it shows in the betting. But his performance two weeks ago won him plenty of support. Last week, however, he came back to reality with an ordinary showing, and it's likely he'll again be in the bottom three. It's a week-to-week prospect for Tim and it's unlikely he can win.