Australian Idol form guide: Final 6

I didn't put up a new form guide for Australian Idol last week because it all seemed too hard - not putting up the form, but deciding where everyone was at.

But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.

So here's the form:

Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.

Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.

Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.

James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.

Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.

Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.