Bookmakers are seeing a plunge for The Hurt Locker leading into the Academy Awards, and with good reason.
As good as Avatar might have been - and it will go down in history alongside the likes of Star Wars - it's not the type of film usually adopted by the Academy suits. They seem to like it real, and that's what punters are banking on.
But while the last round of awards saw The Hurt Locker take ascendency, don't forget the Golden Globes as a key indicator, where Avatar was the winner.
Here at Aussiepunt, we're tipping Avatar to walk away with three gongs.
Meanwhile, here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS DESERT AVATAR
Sportingbet Australia punters have shunned box office smash Avatar ahead of Monday morning’s (Australian Time) Academy Awards ceremony.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the James Cameron blockbuster had drifted from $1.66 to $2.25 over the past two weeks.
“Avatar had all the momentum two weeks ago with us taking several four figure bets at the $1.66,” said Sullivan.
“But with The Hurt Locker picking up the last couple of lead in awards the betting has been turned on its head.”
Sullivan said The Hurt Locker had firmed from $2.25 to $1.75 in the same period with some big bets being written.
“It’s been all The Hurt Locker recently with bets including one of $3000 at $1.75,” Sullivan said.”
“Despite enjoying only moderate success at the box office this film has all the momentum in the race for Best Picture.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering betting on how many Oscars Avatar picks up with five the favourite at $3.00.
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
The Hurt Locker 1.75
Avatar 2.25
Inglorious Basterds 15.00
Up In The Air 41.00
Up 41.00
Precious 67.00
The Blind Side 101.00
An Education 151.00
District 9 151.00
A Serious Man 201.00
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – HOW MANY OSCARS FOR AVATAR?
Sportingbet Australia Market
Five 3.00
Six 4.25
Four 4.50
Three 5.50
Seven 6.50
Eight 9.00
Two 12.00
Nine 26.00
One 51.00
None 101.00
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Friday, March 5, 2010
Golden slipper betting
Sportingbet has taken some big bets on Solar Charged, but we wouldn't be jumping on the bandwagon quite yet.
John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.
SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED
The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.
“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.
“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”
Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.
“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.
KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus
John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.
SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED
The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.
“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.
“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”
Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.
“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.
KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus
So You Think You Can Dance elimination shock
If you can pick the winner of this one, there's some value to be had!
SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE
The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.
“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.
“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”
NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00
SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE
The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.
“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.
“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”
NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00
Newmarket horse racing field
Latest Newmarket odds from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE
The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.
“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.
“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.
“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”
All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.
“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.
“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”
NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00
PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE
The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.
“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.
“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.
“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”
All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.
“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.
“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”
NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Lay against Denman in Australian Guineas
This statement came from IASbet in an effort to attract money for Denman. But if you believe the argument - and there's plenty of substance to it - rather than trying to find another pick to back, the wise thing to do would be to lay Denman with Betfair.
That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.
IASbet.com take on Denman
Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.
That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.
IASbet.com take on Denman
Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
AFL NAB Cup tips
To some, it might be the "Who Cares Cup", but with the pre-season AFL competition at the pointy end, the sides might just be starting to give a damn.
I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.
A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.
And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.
My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.
Here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS
Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.
“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.
“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”
Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.
“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.
“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”
NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50
I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.
A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.
And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.
My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.
Here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS
Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.
“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.
“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”
Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.
“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.
“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”
NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Australia Cup tips
There seems to be plenty of action in early Australia Cup betting.
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:
EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP
Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.
“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.
“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”
Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.
“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.
AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:
EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP
Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.
“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.
“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”
Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.
“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.
AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00
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