Who will win the Winter Olympics figure skating ?

This is a free sample form guide leading up to the Winter Olympics. It comes from the member site, www.winterolympicsformguide.com, and is a great look at who is in real contention for a medal in Vancouver.

Men's Figure Skating (Winter Olympics 2010) form guide:

The men's event is not quite as clear cut as the women's, but like all of the ice skating events, there are stand-out performers.

And we know that realistically, of the 30 skaters, not all of them have the high level of skill which will be required to pick up a medal. So, here we'll focus on those who do have a chance, look at their recent performances, and hone in on which events will provide us key indicators of form leading up the Games.

The program will kick off on Day 5 of the Olympics with the short program, followed by the main event long program on February 18 (day 7). Skaters who can land the most difficult tricks with the highest elegance and grace will be judged the winner in what seems on the surface to be a complex system.

Many might think the men's event will be a two-man race between the first American in 13 years to be crowned world champion Evan Lysacek and comeback king Evgeni Plushenko from Russia (I can hear the Rocky theme playing already), but there are others in the hunt, such as local hero Patrick Chan.

Let's take a little look at it in perspective. Lysacek achieved his world title with a score of 242.23. Plushenko's first and only performance in his comeback so far on October 24 yielded him a score of 240.65 after missing a landing in the short program. That's how close things are set to be. And don't forget Japanese skater Nobunari Oda who started his 2009/10 Grand Prix season campaign with a 242.53 score in the Trophee Eric Bompard in France.

Keep in mind the game of wits being played in the lead-up to the Games. Normally, all the top skaters would compete in all events of the Grand Prix. But note that on no occasion have the top 3 come head to head. It seems this is a game of tactics as much as it is a game of skill.

Brace yourselves, this will be terrific. It's far too early to make a call yet, but let's make a bold early prediction that the Canadian will start favourite, followed by the Russian and the American, with the Japanese pushing for a medal.

Evan Lysacek (USA)
It's been a long time since the United States figured highly in the men's division, and 13 years since they had a world champion. That was until Lysacek hit the scene and was last year crowned the world's best. Yet, while he was the most consistent skater and managed to put all his components together when it counted, in the World Championships, he was not as dominant as his female equal. He placed 2nd in the Four Continents and three 3rds in Grand Prix events before finishing strongly with victory in the worlds and World Team Trophy in Tokyo.

Form:
November 12: Grand Prix Net Skate America, 1st
October 29: Grand Prix Cup of China, 2nd
March 29: World Figure Skating Championships, 1st
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 2nd
January 25: US Figure Skating Championships, 3rd
November 2, 2008: Skate Canada International, 3rd
October 26, 2008: Skate America, 3rd

Patrick Chan (Canada)
When Chan steps onto the rink to perform his short program in February, he will be 19 years and 48 days old, carrying the hopes of the local Canadian crowd with every jump, spin, and landing. But he's been doing it on the senior circuit now for three years and has some of the best scores in the world, including a 249.19 which won him the Four Continents event where he beat Lysacek by 7.25 points. A leg injury unfortunately prevented him from competing in the Rostelecom Cup in October against Plushenko. And he has only recently returned to the ice with a less-than-Chan-like performance. As fitness returns, expect him to shine.

Form:
November 19: Skate Canada International, 6th
March 29: World Figure Skating Championships, 2nd
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 1st
January 18: Canadian Figure Skating Championships, 1st
December 14, 2008: Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final, 5th
November 16, 2008: Trophee Eric Bompard, 1st
November 2, 2008: Skate Canada International, 1st

Evgeni Plushenko (Russia)
The heads of international skaters would have secretly hung low when they heard the Turin Olympic champion Plushenko was planning a return. Still only 26, he had planned to retire from the sport as a young man to follow professional ambition. But on October 24, he emerged for his long program at the Rostelecom Cup, a Grand Prix event. Worse news for his opponents was that he was able to stick a quadruple-triple toeloop combination, triple axel, triple axel-double toeloop, triple loop, flip, double axel and triple lutz. Sounds fancy, and it is, rating among the highest point range when it comes to degree of difficulty. Even worse, he plans to add another quad to his program later in the season. With a score of 240.65, he blitzed the rest of the field. He won't be anywhere to be seen on world rankings, but that counts for nothing when it comes to winning a gold medal. It might have been a shock for some to see him return to international competitive skating, but he'll be a white hot favourite when it comes time to hit the ice in February.

Form:
October 24: ISU Grand Prix, Rostelecom Cup: 1st

Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Oda might be considered to be the bad boy of international ice skating, having gone through a Japanese Skating Federation ban after a drink driving arrest in 2007. He has also had a questionable state of mind, pulling out of the Japanese Championships late 2007 due to "mental stress". But, now at 22 years of age, that seems to be behind him, last season winning the NHK Trophy and two other events which do not count towards Grand Prix final calculation. Despite not qualifying for the Grand Prix Final, he did register a 7th at the World Championships and 4th at the Four Continents amid the world's best company. He proved that this season he's ready to take the extra step by winning the first major event of the season, the Trophee Eric Bompard event in France. If nothing else, Oda has a colourful heritage - he's the 17th direct descendant of a daimyo during Japan's Sengoku period. But perhaps some of the rebel remains, having been known to do exhibition routines to Motley Crew and Red Hot Chili Peppers numbers. Whether he can compete to the standard of Chan and company remains to be seen, but two wins on the Grand Prix circuit, one of them against Lysacek, is a promising start.

Form:
October 29: Grand Prix Cup of China, 1st
October 18: Trophee Eric Bompard 1st
March 29: World Championships, 7th
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 4th
November 30, 2008: NHK Trophy, 1st
October 17, 2008: Karl Schafer Memorial, 1st
September 28, 2008: Nebelhorn Trophy, 1st

Thomas Verner (Czech Republic)
At 23, the Czech is in his prime as a skater, but it is unlikely he'll be able to push for gold at the Olympics. A repeat of his best performance, at the 2008 Europeans, could see him push for a medal, but he seems a couple of tricks short of making a true impact. Now for the positives. With a 4th in both the Worlds and Grand Prix Final, it would seem logical to suggest he's close to a podium finish. At last year's Europeans, he skated his best short program ever and looked well placed to medal, but made mistakes in the long program. He finished 6th. He has, however, started this season on a positive note, second in the Trophee Eric Bompard Grand Prix event, and winner of the Ice Challenge where he was clearly the highest-credentialled skater.

Form
November 12: Skate America, 5th
November 1: Ice Challenge, Austria, 1st
October 18: Trophee Eric Bompard, 2nd
March 29: World Championships, 4th
January 25: European Championships, 6th
December 14, 2008: Grand Prix Final, 4th
November 22, 2008: Cup of Russia, 2nd
November 9, 2008: Cup of China, 3rd
October 17, 2008: Karl Schafer Memorial, 3rd
September 28, 2008: Nebelhorn Trophy, 4th

Brian Joubert (France)
The 2007 World Champion has the program and the scores to match it with the best if he can reproduce his form of nearly three years ago. He has some of the best jumps in the business and consistently lands quads, something which will be required to medal at the Olympics. Despite finishing 4th at Eric Bompard in October behind other Vancouver hopefuls, at his absolute best, he is the best chance to upset the favourites - as he showed with his bronze medal at the 2009 Worlds, and his gold at the Europeans against elite competition. If there is to be someone to create an upset in the field, Joubert is likely to be the one, but recent form suggests he is not the same skater of old.

Form
November 8: NHK Trophy, Japan, 1st
October 18: Trophee Eric Bompard, 4th
March 29: World Championships, 3rd
January 25: European Championships, 1st
November 16, 2008: Trophee Eric Bompard, 4th
November 22, 2008: Cup of Russia, 1st

Takahiko Kozuka (Japan)
Kozuka is a rising star of the skating rink. He turns 21 on the second last day of the Games, February 27, and will be hoping to celebrate in style with an unexpected medal. To do so, one would think he'll need to improve on his current personal best by at least 10-15 points which is a huge leap in class at this level. But it's difficult to ignore his 2009 results, most notably Skate America, an event he won, beating Evan Lysacek. Given that he is a young figure skater on the rise, it will be worth keeping an eye on his 2010 season results. It is also worth heeding his 2009 season results which, for a skater of his age, were outstanding. They included the World Cup victory at Skate America and three other podium finishes. He started this season with a second in the Cup of Russia. For trivia buffs, his father skated in the 1968 Olympics.

Form
November 8: NHK Trophy, Japan, 7th
October 25: Cup of Russia, 2nd
March 29: World Championships, 6th
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 3rd
December 14, 2008: Grand Prix Final, 2nd
November 16, 2008: Trophee Eric Bompard, 2nd
October 26, 2008: Skate America, 1st

Others to watch

Kevin Van der Perren (Belgium)
The 27-year-old last season continued to perform personal bests, which enabled him to pick up a bronze medal at the Europeans. But he is still at least 20 points behind the best skaters of the competition. He finished 14th in the Worlds and, despite being six-time Belgian national champion and international standard skater, is unlikely to contest the medals.

Artem Borodulin (Russia)
If he skates, Borodulin will be one of the youngest skaters in the competition. At just 20, he is another fast on the rise, consistently appearing on the podium at Junior Grand Prix events. He demanded notice in September when he finished with a bronze medal in elite competition at the Cup of Russia. His best scores, however, are some distance behind those which will be required to medal in Vancouver.

Johnny Weir (USA)
It would be negligent to totally discount the three-time US National champion totally from contention, but it would be unlikely for him to be standing on the podium at the Vancouver presentation ceremony. The 25-year-old had his best international season in 2008 when he finished with bronze medals at both the Worlds and the Grand Prix Final. While his flamboyance is adored by many who follow figure skating (he owns a couple of chihuahuas, does tremendous amounts of work for charity, and has a hand in fashion design), his scores will likely need to lift beyond his personal best to medal. Based on 2009 performances, however, it is possible. He was second in both the NHK Trophy and Skate America last season and this year finished 4th at the Cup of Russia, his only skate for this season's campaign.

Samuel Contesti (Italy)
Despite being 26, the Italian is a figure skater on the rise, and one who could spring an upset in Vancouver. He finished 5th at the Worlds with a personal best ICU score of 226.97 which is about 10 points below what we can expect medalists to achieve at the Games. He also finished 2nd at the European Championships. He started this season with a 4th place finish at the Cup of China. He's one whose form needs to be watched closely in other events leading up to the Games.

Denis Ten (Kazakhstan)
And we thought 20 was young. This guy will be 18 when he hits the ice in Vancouver. He is the first Kazakh skater to win an ICU competition. He is a native Russian speaker, but of partial Korean descent. His personal best scores are some distance from those who will be contesting the medals, but he is a youngster on the rise and well worth watching. Last year, he finished 8th in the Worlds and 9th at the Four Continents.

Brandon Mroz (USA)
It remains to be seen whether the 19-year-old American will get a favourable nod from the selectors to skate. But he is another of the juniors making waves in senior ranks, finishing 9th at the Worlds and 8th at the Four Continents last year, along with a 5th in the Trophee Eric Bompard and 7th at Skate Canada. He also finished 2nd at the US Championships which will do him no harm.

Jeremy Abbott (USA)
With skaters of class ranked above him in the US, Abbott was given a chance to shine at Skate Canada, and took it. He won the event. Coupled with the fact that three of the most dominant figure skaters in the world absent and the other recovering from injury, along with results in other events, it would be fair to suggest the Olympic task is beyond him. But it is the Olympics, where anything can happen.

Australian of the Year set to be Jon Dee

Seems Australian punters think political correctness will win out at the announcement of the top prize for 2010. The statement is from Sportingbet:

Bookmakers have installed Planet Ark founder Jon Dee as a $2.50 favourite to be named Australian Of The Year 2010.

Sportingbet Australia CE Michael Sullivan said the recycling champion looked the standout amongst a quality field of nominees.

“Jon Dee has been a champion of the environment, not just in Australia but Worldwide,” said Sullivan.

“Given the focus that is currently on environmental issues and the great work he has done, he looks very hard to beat for this honour.”

Others in betting contention include Mental Health expert Patrick McGorry ($4.00) and Alzheimer’s researcher Ralph Martins ($5.50).

2010 AUSTRALIAN OF THE YEAR
Sportingbet Australia Market
Jon Dee (NSW) Environmental Campaigner 2.50
Patrick McGorry (Vic) Mental Health 4.00
Ralph Martins (WA) Alzheimers Expert 5.50
Julian Burton (SA) Charity Founder 5.50
Bruce Englefield (Tas) Tasmanian Devil Advocate 7.50
Warwick Thornton (NT) Filmmaker 14.00
Patricia Easteal (ACT) Human Rights Advocate 17.00
Chris Sarra (Qld) Indigenous Educator 17.00

Who will score the most goals in the Premier League?

This is the latest release from Victor Chandler in the UK. Tottenham has to be value?

Victor Chandler have opened a market on who’ll score the most goals in the Premier League this season.

At the moment Chelsea and Arsenal are neck and neck on 36 goals a piece, and the firm feel it’s going to be between these two.

“We are making Chelsea the slight favourites but it’s difficult to call.” said VC Spokesman Neal Wilkins.

“Losing Van Persie is a big blow for Arsenal, but Chelsea will also lose players to the African Nations Cup so they might not be so prolific as they have been. That said it’s difficult to see anyone getting close to these two over the season.”

Man United are next in the betting at 5/1 with Liverpool on 10’s and Tottenham on 14’s. United have scored 30 goals so far, Liverpool are on 31 and Tottenham have netted a total of 33.

Who`ll score the most goals in the Premier League this season
Chelsea (36) 1/1
Arsenal (36) 5/4
Man United (30) 5/1
Liverpool (31) 10/1
Tottenham (33) 14/1
Man City (24) 25/1
West Ham (24) 40/1
Aston Villa (22) 66/1
Sunderland (21) 100/1
Burnley (19) 250/1
Fulham (18) 300/1
Hull City (17) 500/1
Blackburn (16) 500/1
Everton (17) 500/1
Bolton (16) 500/1
Wigan (15) 1000/1
Stoke City (13) 1000/1
Birmingham City (12) 1000/1
Wolves (12) 1000/1
Portsmouth (11) 1000/1
2009/2010 season Numbers in brackets are goals scored so far

Nottingham Forest to finish third in Championship?

Odds released by Victor Chandler on who will finish (effectively) third in the Championship, without West Brom and Newcastle:

Nottingham Forest, currently in third place in the league are Victor Chandler’s 9/2 favourites in a highly competitive market, followed by Middlesbrough at 5/1 with Leicester, Cardiff & Sheff Utd all available at 7/1.

Further down in the market Blackpool, currently sitting sixth, only three points behind Forest are priced at 20/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins said: “West Brom and Newcastle are threatening to open up a gap in the Championship, but with only seven points separating the next 11 teams we thought a market without the top two would prove popular with the fans.

Nottingham Forest are on a great run and will be a tough team to catch, 9/2 looks a very fair price.”

Chandler’s have another reason to hope Nottingham Forest fail to catch the top two in the league.

Chairman Victor Chandler has offered to pay the season tickets of fans should the team, who are sponsored by the bookmaker, win the Championship. An offer that is estimated will cost £6m should it happen.

Hong Kong International Sprint odds

From Sportingbet Australia:

Scenic Blast has been well backed to take out the prestigious Hong Kong International Sprint on Sunday week.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said if he won the Danny Morton trained galloper looked like repeating the pain he inflicted on bookies by winning the King’s Stand earlier in the year.

“Scenic Blast took plenty from us when he won in England and looks like he could repeat the pain here,” said Sullivan.

“We’ve already written a bet of $10,000 at $8.50 and we’re expecting plenty more over the next week and a half.”

Scenic Blast is now into $7.00 with another Australian galloper All Silent the $4.60 favourite and Apache Cat at $8.00.


HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 4.60
Sacred Kingdom 4.80
Scenic Blast 7.00
California Flag 7.50
Apache Cat 8.00
Cannonball 14.00
Laurel Guerreiro 14.00
War Artist 15.00
Total Gallery 16.00
Inspiration 17.00
Borderlescott 21.00
Green Birdie 31.00
One World 34.00
Joy And Fun 51.00

Roy Jones Jnr a good chance to knock out Danny Green

I watched a documentary about the two fighters last night and you'd have to say Jones Jnr is a class above Green. If parochial bets are keeping the odds out somewhat, a Jones Jnr KO might offer good value.

Here's what one of the bookies has to say:

The heavy support for American Roy Jones Jnr to score a knockout victory over Danny Green continued overnight at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some big overnight bets had forced the price of a Jones knockout in from $3.35 to $2.75.

“We thought the Jones knockout support would end with yesterday’s $10,000 at $3.50,” said Sullivan.

“But another client had a further $10,000 at $3.35 and followed up with $5000 at $3.00 as soon as the price shortened further.

“Still, with Green never been knocked out in his career, we’re more than happy to accommodate the punters.”

Jones is still a dominant $1.30 favourite to win the fight with punters uninterested in backing Green at $3.50.

Rees loses support in NSW

Press statement from Sportingbet:

Punters have responded to rumours of leadership moves on NSW Premier Nathan Rees in the Sportingbet Australia leadership market, blowing him back out to $3.75 from a short stint as favourite at $3.25.

Amid furious betting on the federal election markets in the wake of Tony Abbott’s ascension, a number of bets on the NSW ALP leadership market have pushed long-time aspirant and former planning minister Frank Sartor to the fore.

Sartor has shortened considerably from $5.00 into $3.75.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that it has been a good day for political punters, who have also been energised by the speculation about the NSW ALP leadership.

“Just when Nathan Rees thought he was safe, the knives seem to be back out,” said Mr Sullivan.

“Punters are telling us that they take the rumours seriously – and this time Rees won’t have the option of sacking Tripodi,” he said.

“Meanwhile the Carmel Tebbutt and Kristina Kenneally options have been exhausted and they look unlikely to run, leaving them to drift in the betting.”

“This leaves Sartor, who we expect will continue to shorten in our leadership market.”

Tebbutt and Kenneally have both drifted to $4.20 and $5.50 respectively.


ALP LEADER AT NEXT NSW STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market.
Nathan Rees $3.75
Frank Sartor $3.75
Carmel Tebbutt $4.20
Kristina Kenneally $5.50
Any Other $6.50
Michael Daley $10.00
John Robertson $13.00
Verity Firth $26.00

Roy Jones Jnr to knock out Danny Green

A points decision is still the favoured result, in the favour of Roy Jones Jnr, but punters seem keen to bet he'll knock out his Australian opponent tomorrow night.

Jones has been backed from $3.50 to $3.35 with Sportingbet Australia to knock out Danny Green.

Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan said one punter had placed $10,000 on a Jones knockout victory at $3.50.

“It’s a very confident bet to say Green will have the lights turned off for the first time in his career,” said Sullivan.

“A Jones win by knockout has clearly been the most popular option with punters with plenty of other good sized bets placed on top of the $25,000 to $10,000.”

Jones is a hot $1.33 favourite to win the fight at Sportingbet with Green a $3.30 outsider.

Media a bunch of sheep

What a difference a day makes.

And what a bunch of sheep my peers in the media can be.

Here's how it works:

Step 1: Journalist catches wind of a rumour that Joe Hockey will stab his mate Malcolm Turnbull in the back. And because that's good enough for a change, Tony Abbott pulls himself from the challenge.

Step 2: Journalist number 2 hears the report of said rumour and doesn't want to be seen missing out on the news. Rumour 2 reported as fact in ensuing commentary.

Step 3: Repeat Step 2 until Hockey is a sure thing to win the leadership - almost to the point his own party believes it.

Step 4: Punters are sure they are on a good thing and back Hockey into $1.20, and Abbott out to more than $5 to lead the Liberals to the next election. At no point was there any real evidence aside from media hype to support the move.

Step 5: Liberals go the way they had planned all along and install Abbott to the leadership. Abbott firms to $1.15 to lead the Liberals to the next election and Hockey moves to more than $5 in the market.

Those laughing loudest at the political circus which is now the Liberal Party must surely be the bookmakers.

I also note that the Labor Party has today moved out from $1.15 to $1.20 in the market to win the next election.

I don't get it. If the rumours were so hot yesterday that there was to be a change in Liberal leadership, why didn't the move happen at that point?

Turnbull says he has Hockey's support

A press statement from Malcolm Turnbull only moments ago told everybody he's sure he has the support of Joe Hockey. If he can be believed, punters might have been a little premature to back Hockey to be Liberal leader at the next election.

The media likes to latch on to rumours, and it's a pretty big tip that Hockey will tomorrow contest the leadership.

If Turnbull can be believed: It's a big "if".

The Coalition leadership market has become a one-horse race following heavy betting behind Joe Hockey over the weekend at Sportingbet Australia.

Dropping to a near-unbackable $1.20 to lead the Coalition to the next election, Mr Hockey enjoys the absolute support of punters to seize control in tomorrow morning’s leadership ballot.

He has pulled well ahead of conservative candidate Tony Abbott, who now languishes at $5.00, and the apparently outgoing leader Malcolm Turnbull, who has slid out to an unlikely $7.00 in the betting.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that after a tumultuous weekend for the leadership market, punters have crowded around Hockey.

“I’d say Hockey’s visit to John Howard finalised the issue in the minds of punters,” said Mr Sullivan.

“Turnbull seems to have run out of friends and Abbott has the slight issue of his unelectability to overcome,” he said.

Meanwhile other leadership contenders in the Sportingbet Australia market are Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop, who has blown out to $34.

FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market

Hockey $1.20
Abbott $5
Turnbull $7
Robb $17
Dutton $21
Bishop $34
Any Other $11

Hockey to lead Liberal Party: Punters

The punters usually have a fair idea when it comes to forecasting leadership issues. It might not come as soon as Monday, but it looks like Joe Hockey is a good thing to take the Liberals to the next election.

Below is a press release issued today by Sportingbet:

As the Coalition leadership hangs in the balance, punters have unequivocally backed Joe Hockey to lead the Coalition to the next election.

Embattled incumbent Malcolm Turnbull meanwhile languishes in third place in the Sportingbet Australia market – a devastating judgement by punters that is sure to compound his current woes.

With Hockey suddenly shortened to $1.80 and Turnbull drifting out to an improbable $3.50, the instigator Tony Abbott is enjoying a resurgence in the eyes of punters, shortening into $2.75.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the market had been completely upended by today’s events, but that he expects some wise punters will be happy they backed Joe Hockey come Monday.

“Over the last six months, Hockey has paying upwards of $3 for most of the time as he has not been keen to make a grab at the leadership – and wisely so,” said Mr Sullivan.

“Now punters are getting behind him as it seems that Turnbull’s day is done and Abbott will keep his powder dry – for now at least,” he said.

Meanwhile other leadership contenders in the Sportingbet Australia market are Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21).

Who will lead Liberals at next Federal election?
Sportingbet Australia Market

Hockey $1.80
Abbott $2.75
Turnbull $3.50
Robb $17
Dutton $21
Bishop $21
Any Other $7

Brisbane test cricket novelty bet

Isn't it interesting how bookmakers now must follow the news? It's a great way of getting people interested in their product.

The latest "gimmick" (I couldn't find a better word) is based on comments from the West Indies coach that fast bowler Jerome Taylor has the better of Ricky Ponting.

Yes, Taylor has gotten Ponting out a couple of times. But will the mind games fool the punters?

Given that the Australians are only likely to bat once, it really is a matter of "will he or won't he?".

Sportingbet Australia is offering odds on how many times Jerome Taylor can pick up the scalp of Ricky Ponting in the First Test after West Indies coach David Williams claimed his opening bowler had the Aussie skipper’s measure.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the option of no times was the favourite despite Taylor’s recent statistical dominance.

“We have no dismissals at $1.45, One at $2.65 and Two as a $9.00 outsider given that there’s every chance the Windies won’t even bowl twice,” said Sullivan.

“Ponting is a class act and while Taylor has got him eight times, we’ll back him in a head to head on home soil any day.”

TAYLOR v PONTING
Sportingbet Australia Market
Taylor does not dismiss Ponting 1.45
Taylor dismisses Ponting Once 2.65
Taylor dismisses Ponting Twice 9.00

Australia unbackable in Brisbane cricket test

The following press release got me thinking. Just what is "unbackable odds"? Is there such a thing?

There was an article in one of the daily newspapers this week which spoke of mug punters: people who'll take 1% return in the run, only to lose it with a freakish touchdown inside the last minute.

But is $1.26 really unbackable? The bottom line: It is if you don't think Australia can win four tests in a row against the West Indies.

Sportingbet Australia punters don’t expect the First Test against the West Indies to last until Sunday.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had decided the value in this Test was on the match duration.

“We can’t write a bet on the Windies and the $1.26 about Australia has the punters looking for some other options,” said Sullivan.

“The match ending on Saturday’s third day has been backed in from $4.50 to $4.00 with nobody expecting the visitors to provide any opposition.”

FIRST TEST – AUSTRALIA v WEST INDIES – MATCH DURATION

Sportingbet Australia Market

Days 1&2 21.00

Day 3 4.00

Day 4 2.00

Day 5 3.00





FIRST TEST – AUSTRALIA v WEST INDIES

Sportingbet Australia Market

Australia 1.26

Draw 5.35

West Indies 12.00

Academy Awards winners tough to pick

According to early markets, the Academy Awards is a wide open market. Now, if only we could watch them all to judge. And therein lies the biggest problem with punting on such markets - most of us need to do it on heresay, rather than acute knowledge.

Bookmakers rate Abbie Cornish as Australia’s best chance to pick up an Oscar at the 2010 Academy Awards.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Cornish was right in contention for her role as 19th century poet John Keats’ love interest Fanny Brawne.

“Abbie Cornish has already been nominated in the Best Actress category at the British Independent Film Awards and looks a shoe in to earn an Oscar nomination,” said Sullivan.

“But she faces stiff opposition to win from the likes of Carey Mulligan, Gabby Sidibe and veterans Meryl Streep and Helen Mirren and we have her at backable odds of $9.00 as a result.”

Up In The Air and Invictus are joint $4.50 favourites in what looks a wide open Best Picture Market while Colin Firth is a $2.50 favourite to score the Best Actor Oscar.

2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST ACTRESS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Carey Mulligan - An Education 2.00
Gabby Sidibe - Precious 2.50
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia 2.50
Helen Mirren - The Last Station 5.50
Abbie Cornish - Bright Star 9.00
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones 12.00
Penelope Cruz - Broken Embraces 26.00
Marion Cotillard - Nine 31.00
Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air 41.00
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side 41.00

2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST ACTOR
Sportingbet Australia Market
Colin Firth - A Single Man 2.50
George Clooney - Up In The Air 2.75
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart 3.50
Morgan Freeman - Invictus 5.00
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine 5.50
Viggo Mortensen - The Road 10.00
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker 10.00
Matt Damon - The Informant 26.00
Robert De Niro – Everything’s Fine 26.00
Sharlto Copley - District Nine 34.00
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station 34.00
Michael Stuhlberg - A Serious Man 41.00
Sam Rockwell - Moon 41.00
Nicholas Cage - Bad Lieutenant: Port Of Call New Orleans 51.00

2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Up In The Air 4.50
Invictus 4.50
The Hurt Locker 4.75
Precious 5.00
Nine 6.00
Up 7.50
An Education 10.00
Inglorious Basterds 10.00
The Lovely Bones 11.00
A Serious Man 11.00
Avatar 16.00
The Road 21.00
Julie & Julia 31.00
A Single Man 31.00
The Last Station 41.00
The Messenger 51.00
The White Ribbon 51.00
Where The Wild Things Are 67.00
District 9 67.00
Crazy Heart 67.00
Bright Star 67.00
Star Trek 101.00

2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST DIRECTOR
Sportingbet Australia Market
Jason Reitman - Up In The Air 2.00
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker 3.50
Clint Eastwood - Invictus 4.00
Lee Daniels - Precious 4.50
James Cameron - Avatar 7.50
Rob Marshall - Nine 9.00
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds 11.00
Lone Scherfig - An Education 14.00
Peter Jackson - The Lovely Bones 14.00
Ethan & Joel Coen - A Serious Man 21.00
Pete Docter & Bob Peterson - Up 31.00
Tom Ford - A Single Man 31.00

Gold Salute a hot tip at Flemington

If you fancy Gold Salute, the advice from Sportingbet is to get in quick. I'm tipping the odds will be a little easier on the Tote.

The betting plunge on Victorian raider Gold Salute in the Railway Stakes has continued with some huge bets written at Sportingbet Australia.

The Mark Riley trained gelding shortened from $4.20 to $3.20 in the last 24 hours and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money was still coming for him.

“The move started with a bet of $25,000 each way at $4.20 yesterday afternoon and since then punters have just kept loading up into him,” Sullivan said.

“We took a string of big bets after that at odds between $3.40 and $3.80 as punters declared him the one to beat.

“His placings in the Toorak and Emirates suggest he will be hard to hold out here but I am happy to take him on at these odds.”


2009 RAILWAY STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Gold Salute 3.20
All American 6.00
Ortensia 7.50
Grand Nirvana 8.00
Tarzi 13.00
Megatic 15.00
Eliotto 15.00
Snipers Bullet 17.00
Spirited One 17.00
Largo Lad 18.00
Famous Roman 21.00
Keytomoney 21.00
Colour Correct 31.00
Lords Ransom 31.00
Lambton Castle 61.00
Oroya Gold 71.00
Coconut Grove 126.00

Hayley still a good bet in Australian Idol

Following is a press release from Sportingbet. Maybe I've got it wrong, and plenty evidently think I have, but I said a long time ago in the competition it would be a battle between Stan and someone else.

Given that it's a game of demographics as much as it is talent, I still have Hayley an even money chance, which makes the $4.50 a good bet.

Gold Coast soul singer Stan Walker is a raging $1.18 favourite to be the new Australian Idol after another impressive display on Sunday night.

Walker is in a head to head battle with Sydney’s Hayley Warner who is a $4.50 outsider at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said weight of money had ensured Walker would go into next week’s finale as a clear favourite.

“The punters have spoken with all the big money going on Walker over the past couple of weeks shortening his price right up to $1.18,” Sullivan said.

“He does deserve to be favourite but Hayley has been brilliant as well and I am more than happy to be on her to cause an upset.

“Her single was arguably better than Stan’s and the contestant with the best single has generally gone onto win so the $4.50 is clearly the value for punters.”

Rees gets support from Aussie punters

An interesting view of New South Wales state politics, which evidently gives some support to Nathan Rees:

The government of Nathan Rees was given a boost today from punters, following a series of ‘shock and awe’ tactics by the Premier on the floor of the ALP’s state conference.

Labor’s odds to retain government at the next election shortened from $4.00 to $3.80 after a number of bets were placed on them at Sportingbet Australia.

The controversial moves, which saw Rees ridding his cabinet of Joe Tripodi and Ian Macdonald, has been seen as an effort to ‘stop the rot’ and also has the Premier’s odds shorten to lead the party to the next election.

Without fickle ‘king-breaker’ Tripodi in Cabinet, punters have read this as a plus for the Premier, cutting his odds back to $3.25.

Carmel Tebbutt is seen as the obvious danger and is equal favourite alongside the Premier at $3.25

Meanwhile odds on previous favourite Kristina Keneally have blown out the gate following the unceremonious exit of her political patron, Tripodi. Keneally is now paying $5.00.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Premier’s decisive seizing of the Cabinet selection process and his crackdown on political fundraising have been interpreted as a sign that the government is willing to take risks and make sacrifices as it attempts to become electorally competitive.

“Punters seem to be telling us that they are considering taking the Rees Government seriously, after a long period of questioning who was really running the state,” said Mr Sullivan.

“We’ve certainly seen a few punters getting behind Rees and his team today,” he said.

“Some are even backing him to hold onto the leadership, which is a big call given he’s hung his enemies out to dry on the backbench, where they’ll be free to resume plotting his downfall.”
Meanwhile the Coalition’s odds to win the next state election have drifted slightly to $1.25 although they remain red hot favourites.

Aussie odds plummet for first cricket test

The West Indies odds of causing an unlikely upset in the first Test at the Gabba next week have blown further following Chris Gayle’s departure for family reasons.

The Windies were already $10 outsiders for the match but have blown further to $11 at Sportingbet Australia while their odds of drawing the match have also drifted from $3.75 to $4.25.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said it was nearly impossible to see the West Indies causing an upset without their captain who looks an unlikely starter.

“Chris Gayle was their one real X Factor who could produce an innings that could turn the game,” Sullivan said.

“He could score a ton very quickly and his bowling will also be missed.

“With Gayle in the side, you could see them being competitive in games if he, Sarwan and Chanderpaul all fired but without him it looks like only weather could get in the Aussies way.”

Australia shortened from $1.40 to $1.35 for the opening Test and are red hot $1.22 favourites for the series at Sportingbet.

Australia vs West Indies - Test Series Winner
Australia 1.22
Drawn Series 5.00
West Indies 17.00

1st Test - Australia vs West Indies
Australia 1.35
Draw 4.25
West Indies 11.00

Bookies give up on Tiger Woods

I've never heard of bookies giving up before.

If there's a chance of them keeping their money, they'll usually have everything crossed - fingers, toes, whatever.

But the homepage of Centrebet reads thus:

Sportsbet has decided Tiger Woods is a moral and has paid out early regardless of whether he wins or loses. Applies to all outright wagers placed before 5:30pm Fri 13th.

Put it in the "strange, but true" category.

Tiger Woods firms in the betting

Following Tiger Woods’ 6-under round of 66 in the first round of the Australian Masters, Sportsbet.com.au has framed a market on Tiger’s total score for the tournament.

“From Tiger’s display today, we think around the low minus 20’s is about right,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

Tiger’s total score in the 2009 Australian Masters
-15 or worse $11.00
-16 to -18 $4.25
-19 to -21 $3.75
-22 to -24 $3.00
-25 or better $4.00

In overall betting, Tiger has been $2.60 into $1.70 today following his blistering first round.

“Tiger has been well supported since markets opened, and we took a $50,000 bet on Tiger at $1.70 today during his round,” said Lane.

“Tiger is obviously the standout, although we think there’s great value to be had elsewhere as the greens will firm up over the weekend and it will be tough for everyone.”

Other sportsbooks have Tiger as short as $1.55 to win the tournament.

Leading sire odds for 2009/10

There's a fair amount of the season to go, but the front runner looks a good thing to me. Feel free to differ:

Sportingbet Australia has installed boom sire Encosta De Lago as a $2.35 favourite to be leading sire by prizemoney for season 2009/10.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Encosta De Lago deserved his place at the head of the market despite presently trailing Street Cry by almost $2 Million.

“Encosta De Lago’s record speaks for itself, having topped the table for the last two seasons,” said Sullivan.

“Street Cry’s earnings have been inflated by Shocking’s Melbourne Cup victory and we think the incumbent champ can run him down.”

Street Cry is rated a $2.75 chance to hang on to his lead while, prolific sire of 2 year olds, More Than Ready looking good value at $10.00 with races such as the Golden Slipper still to come.

2009/10 LEADING SIRE BY PRIZEMONEY
Encosta De Lago 2.35
Street Cry 2.75
Redoutes Choice 5.50
Any Other Individual Sire 6.00
More Than Ready (usa) 10.00
Scenic 15.00
Lonhro 26.00

$100K bet on Tiger Woods

Australian punters are warming to Tiger Woods with a bet of $100,000 at $2.60 struck at Sportingbet Australia.

Woods had been a little easy with bookmakers but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had tumbled into him in the past 24 hours.

“He has been $2.75 to $2.50 with us in the past 24 hours as punters have really got behind as they have seen him hitting the course for practice,” Sullivan said.

“We took one bet to take out over $250,000 and there have been plenty of other bets in the $5000 to $20,000 range placed on him as well.

“Woods is always the best golfer in the field, it is just whether he hits it well and handles the course that is the risk.

“We are happy to keep laying him though as I am not so sure Kingston Heath will suit him.”

Sullivan also reported strong support for some of the Aussie contenders.

“Stuart Appleby has been the best backed of the locals, with bets including one of $100,000 to $2500, while there has also been good money for defending champ Rod Pampling and rising stars Michael Sim and Marc Leishman,” Sullivan said.

Sportsbet.com.au has released a range of markets on the 2009 Australian Masters. Also included below are a variety of novelty markets around hot favourite Tiger Woods.

“Tiger and Geoff Ogilvy have been by far the best backed to win the Masters,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“The 20 largest bets we’ve taken have all been on Woods, with a few decent bets on Ogilvy thrown in.

“Although, there have been some doubters who have jumped on the $11 offered on Tiger to miss the cut.

“Punters who want to take on Tiger but can’t narrow his slayer down can back everyone else in the field at $1.48. This option has been quite popular, with one punter laying down $20,000 on the rest of the field,” said Lane.

TIGER WOODS’ WINNING MARGIN
Payout on Tiger’s winning margin at the completion of the tournament.
1 stroke exactly $9.00
2 strokes exactly $13.00
3 strokes exactly $15.00
4 strokes exactly $17.00
5 strokes or more $5.50
Won in playoff $13.00
Tiger will not win $1.48

FRONT-RUNNING TIGER
Payout on Tiger to lead or have a share of the lead after every round in the Australian Masters.
Tiger to lead after every round $9.00
Tiger to give someone else a go at the top $1.05

TWO OR FOUR DAYS OF TIGER AT THE HEATH?
Tiger to miss the cut $11
Tiger to make the cut $1.02
*Other players quoted to make or miss the cut – see Sportsbet.com.au for details.

HOLE IN ONE BET
Yes, there will be a hole in one scored during the Masters $2.70
No, there will not be a hole in one scored during the Masters $1.45

HEAD TO HEAD MARKETS
In all head to head markets, playoffs are excluded unless otherwise stated. Dead heat rules apply. Paid out on official finishing order.

ADAM SCOTT VS MICHAEL SIM
Adam Scott $1.90
Michael Sim $1.90

TIGER WOODS VS GEOFF OGILVY
Tiger Woods $1.38
Geoff Ogilvy $3.05

JOHN SENDEN VS AARON BADDELEY
John Senden $1.87
Aaron Baddeley $1.93

STUART APPLEBY VS RICHARD GREEN
Stuart Appleby $1.90
Richard Green $1.90

MATHEW GOGGIN VS GREG CHALMERS
Mathew Goggin $1.85
Greg Chalmers $1.95

Kevin Sheedy a long term prospect in West Sydney

I've heard of futures betting, but this is a very long-term investment with very little information on players:

Kevin Sheedy has the job ahead of him at West Sydney according to bookmakers, with Sportingbet Australia posting a market that has Sheedy’s worst year at Essendon favourite to better his opening year at West Sydney.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Sheedy looked the right man for the job, starting a side from nothing was a monumental task and a finals berth in their opening year was a $9.00 outsider.

“Sheedy proved how good a coach he was in 27 years at Essendon but we have his worst year there in 2006 as $1.80 favourite to be better than his first year in West Sydney,” Sullivan said.

“The Bombers won three and drew one in 06 and anything better than that for West Sydney would be a success I would think.

“No matter how good a job he does, you wouldn’t think they are any hope of making the finals in their debut season and we have them $1.05 to be spending September on the sidelines.”

SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 VS SHEEDY’S ESSENDON 2006
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS 2012 To Do Better Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 2.00
GWS 2012 To Do Worse Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 1.80

SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 TO MAKE FINALS
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS To Make 2012 Finals 9.00
GWS To Miss 2012 Finals 1.05

Hong Kong International Sprint

At risk of becoming a Sportingbet conduit, here's their take on the Hong Kong Sprint:

All Silent, Apache Cat and Scenic Blast look like sharing the stage in the Cathay Pacific Hong Kong International Sprint on December 13 and Sportingbet Australia punters have the opportunity to pick which of the local stars will perform the best with the bookmaker offering exclusive head to head and trio markets.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan believes All Silent is the pick of the Australians but Apache Cat and Scenic Blast are close behind.

“We mark All Silent at $2.50 in a trio with the other two heavyweights, having beaten Apache Cat in last Saturday’s Group One Patinack Farm Classic.

“He’s one of Australia’s form horses and has won his last two starts over 1200m in Group races,” said Sullivan.

“However, Apache Cat is more than capable of avenging Saturday’s loss having finished third in the same race at Sha Tin last year.

“The Cat is currently $2.75 in the market but that may shorten should he get his usual amount of punter support.

“He won impressively two starts ago in the Group Two Schweppes Stakes over 1200m and his Hong Kong experience can only help,” said Sullivan.

Australian Horse Of The Year, Scenic Blast, also has every right to perform well as he will earn a US $1 million bonus should he win the HK$12m Sprint.

The Dan Morton trained star has already won two Global Sprint Challenge legs in the Lightning Stakes and the King's Stand Stakes and is more than capable of winning another Group One Sprint.

“Scenic Blast opens the trio as a $2.90 outsider but that price can change quickly as he is always well supported at Sportingbet.

“Punters nailed us when he took out the King’s Stand Stakes but we’re hoping the horse is kinder to us in Hong Kong with Australian money shared between the three champions,” said Sullivan.


HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT TRIO
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
All Silent 2.50
Apache Cat 2.75
Scenic Blast 2.90

HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT HEAD TO HEAD
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
All Silent 1.80
Apache Cat 2.00

HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT HEAD TO HEAD
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
All Silent 1.75
Scenic Blast 2.05

HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT HEAD TO HEAD
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
Apache Cat 1.85
Scenic Blast 1.95

VRMA Personality of the year

Statement from Sportingbet:

Bart Cumming has been installed as $1.30 favourite to win the VRMA Personality of the year following another phenomenal Spring for the master trainer.

Cummings is clear favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Melbourne Cup winning trainer Mark Kavanagh and Peter Moody.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Cummings had to be favourite after he trained the winner of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and Oaks amongst others and provided punters with a few laughs.

“It was a vintage year for Cummings where he showed he is still the best trainer of stayers in the country and produced some classical one liners to show he has lost none of his wit at 82 years of age,” Sullivan said.

“For any trainer to have four Group 1 winners in the Spring is a sensational effort but when you look at them individually it gets even more impressive.

“He brought a three year old through to win a Cox Plate in just his fifth start and getting last year’s Melbourne Cup winner up to win the Caulfield Cup with top weight just shows how good a trainer he really is.”

Sullivan said last year’s winner, Kavanagh, could not be ruled out after his Spring contained some tremendous highs and lows.

“Mark Kavanagh really saw both sides of racing during the Carnival losing champion Maldivian and Derby favourite Shamoline Warrior to injury and the experiencing the ultimate high of training the Melbourne Cup winner,” Sullivan said.

“The way he handled himself during both the highs and the lows will surely see him attract a lot of support.”

VRMA PERSONALITY OF THE YEAR
Bart Cummings 1.30
Mark Kavanagh 3.20
Peter Moody 7.00
Dan Morton 21.00
Robbie Laing 51.00

Australian Idol odds

For mine, Toby has really made a farce of the entire series of Australian Idol. Here's the latest betting news anyway:

Gold Coast singer Stan Walker is a long odds on favourite to win Australian Idol after outshining his competitors on Sunday evening.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Stan had firmed from $2.00 to $1.40 following the show.

“Stan out sang them tonight but that’s only part of the reason we’ve shortened his price,” said Sullivan.

“We’re writing twenty bets on him to one on any other contestant.”

Sullivan did have some advice for punters who wanted to unload early on Stan.

“There’s no doubt that Stan is the frontrunner,” Sullivan said.

“But whoever does the best job of the winners single wins Idol year after year and we don’t get to hear those until next week.”

Wingham’s James Johnston is a $1.40 favourite to be eliminated from the show next week.

WINNER
Stan Walker 1.40
Hayley Warner 3.00
James Johnston 11.00

ELIMINATION 15 NOVEMBER
James Johnston 1.40
Hayley Warner 2.80
Stan Walker 17.00

Tiger Woods in Australia

Here's the latest odds on the Australian Masters this weekend. Is Tiger really worth the investment?

Tiger Woods may be the best golfer in the world but not every punter rates him a certainty to win the Australian Masters with many taking shorts odds about the Tiger being tamed at Kingston Heath this weekend.

Sportingbet Australia is offering top odds of $2.60 about Woods but its CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were rushing to back the rest of the field at odds of $1.45.

“We have taken a lot of bets, including one of $20,000 at $1.45 , that someone other than Woods will be wearing the gold jacket come Sunday afternoon.

“It is a brave move taking $1.45 that the greatest golfer ever won’t defeat this field.

“However, he did blow up in the final round last week and there is a school of thought that the sand belt course won’t suit him.”

Punters are also backing that little known Australian golfer Anthony Painter 's 15 year-old course record of 64 will survive Tiger's attack on Kingston Heath.

“Tiger is a $3.75 chance to break Painter’s record or a $4.50 to equal the mark,” Sullivan said.

“ The Punters have lapped up the $2.00 about Painter’s mark proving too good for Tiger backing it in to $1.50.”


AUSTRALIAN MASTERS – TIGER VS FIELD
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods 2.60
The Field 1.45


AUSTRALIAN MASTERS – TIGER WOODS V ANTHONY PAINTER 1994 COURSE RECORD (64)
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods Hits Course Record 63 or Better During Tournament 3.75
Tiger Woods Equals Course Record 64 During Tournament 4.50
Tiger Woods Doesn’t Hit 64 Or Better During Tournament 1.50


AUSTRALIAN MASTERS – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods 2.60
Geoff Ogilvy 11.00
Adam Scott 17.00
Michael Sim 17.00
John Senden 21.00
Aaron Baddeley 26.00
Rod Pampling 26.00
Mathew Goggin 34.00
Nathan Green 34.00
Richard Green 34.00
Stuart Appleby 41.00
Marc Leishman 41.00
Alex Cejka 51.00
Greg Chalmers 51.00
Jason Dufner 51.00
James Nitties 51.00
Marcus Fraser 67.00
Cameron Percy 67.00
Others 81.00 Plus

Emirates Stakes odds

Here are some novelty bets being offered by Sportsbet for the Emirates Stakes tomorrow at Flemington:

Will the Emirates Stakes winner have been previously placed at Flemington, or will it be a Headquarters virgin?

Virgins $1.62
Black Piranha, Sniper’s Bullet, King Mufhasa, Sir Slick, Triple Honour, So You Think, All American, Chinchilla Rose, Walking Or Dancing
Pros $2.30
Road to Rock, Vigor, Gold Salute, Red Lord, Eagle Falls, Rightfully Yours, Von Costa De Hero

How much weight will the Stakes winner have to bear?

Lightweights (53-54.5kgs) $1.58
Eagle Falls, Triple Honour, Rightfully Yours, So You Think, All American, Chinchilla Rose, Von Costa De Hero, Walking Or Dancing
Heavyweights (55kg+) $2.40
Black Piranha, Road To Rock, Sniper’s Bullet, Vigor, Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Red Lord, Sir Slick

See if you can pick the overall winning strike rate of the Stakes winner below:

Guns (win rate 41%+) $2.30
King Mufhasa, Eagle Falls, So You Think
Determined (win rate 35-40%) $3.20
Vigor, Gold Salute, Rightfully Yours
Cruisers (win rate 19-34%) $6.75
Sniper’s Bullet, Sir Slick, Triple Honour, Walking Or Dancing
Slackers (win rate 18% or less) $4.40
Black Piranha, Road To Rock, Red Lord, All American, Chinchilla Rose, Von Costa De Hero

From which class will the Stakes winner hail?

Filthy Rich ($1.5M+) $2.15
Black Piranha, Sir Slick, Triple Honour, So You Think
Posh ($801K - $1.49M) $5.25
Sniper’s Bullet, Vigor, King Mufhasa, Von Costa De Hero
Middle Class ($570K - $800K) $11.00
Road To Rock, Red Lord, All American, Chinchilla Rose
Paupers (under $570K) $2.75
Gold Salute, Eagle Falls, Rightfully Yours, Walking Or Dancing

Put your astrological mind into gear and pick the Stakes winner with the Zodiac bet:

Leo/Sagittarius $5.75
Black Piranha, Triple Honour, Chinchilla Rose, Road To Rock
Libra $3.85
Sniper’s Bullet, Sir Slick, Rightfully Yours, Von Costa De Hero, Walking Or Dancing
Virgo $2.75
Vigor, Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Red Lord, Eagle Falls, All American
Scorpio $3.05
So You Think

In each of the Alpha-Bet markets below, punters can select the group from which the Stakes winning horse will come from.

Group A $5.50
All American, Black Piranha, Chinchilla Rose, Eagle Falls
Group B $3.80
Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Red Lord, Rightfully Yours
Group C $2.20
Road To Rock, Sir Slick, Sniper’s Bullet, So You Think
Group D $4.60
Triple Honour, Vigor, Von Costa De Hero, Walking Or Dancing

Jockey's surnames

Group A $1.92
Black Piranha, So You Think, All American, Walking Or Dancing
Group B $3.50
Vigor, Eagle Falls, Rightfully Yours, Von Costa De Hero
Group C $5.25
Gold Salute, King Mufhasa, Sir Slick, Triple Honour
Group D $8.00
Road To Rock, Sniper’s Bullet, Red Lord, Chinchilla Rose

Maribyrnong Plate late mail

Sportingbet Australia punters are hoping that David Hayes can gain some consolation for a miserable Spring Carnival with Ebony Rock in Saturday’s Maribyrnong Plate.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Fastnet Rock colt had been backed in from $16.00 to $7.50.

“Punters snapped up the $16.00 as soon as we posted a market and there’s still solid support at the $7.50,” said Sullivan.

“The Hayes stable has pulled off plunges in this race before with the likes of Langoustine and Nadeem and punters seem pretty confident that history could well repeat.”


2009 MARIBYRNONG PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Sweet Cheeks 3.00
Stirling Grove 3.30
Brightexpectations 4.00
She’s Got Gears 5.00
Ebony Rock 7.50
Marmaa 8.00
Sleepers 12.00
Tropic Thunder 14.00
Enzed Girl 16.00
Baribo 21.00
Excellence 21.00
General Truce 26.00
Forgiven 26.00
Like A Guest 41.00
Mr Chard 41.00
Indisputably 51.00
Onamissionfromgod 81.00

Free sports tips for November 7 and 8

Here's some thoughts about the weekend. Feel free to chime in.

Punters seem keen on Number 5, Gold Salute in the 5th at Flemington tomorrow. There will also be plenty of money floating around for the Patinack Classic, the last big race of the Spring season. And a fair chunk of it will be on the "people's horse", Apache Cat. Look for it to finish late.

Here's something different: A dog. We haven't touched the dish lickers, but Race 4 at Wentworth Park seems to have a special. It's No 2, Amity Bale.

I'm not as bullish as some on Casey Stoner to win the Moto GP. I think after Valentino Rossi made certain of the world championship crown, he'll now be keen to lash out on the Valencia track.

I think India will be a fair thing to beat Australia in the next one dayer to take the series to a decider. And Chelsea at better than even money seem like fair odds to beat Manchester United. Keep in mind though, that this will take on derby proportions, and they often end up in a draw.

Smart punter cleans up in Melbourne Cup

One Sportingbet Australia punter has plenty of reason for celebration after landing a remarkable Melbourne Cup trifecta.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter snared himself a profit of $37,258 by outlaying only $24.

“Usually people snare the Cup trifecta by boxing up several runners,” said Sullivan.

“But this fellow managed to isolate the three placegetters and took the trifecta four times.

“Congratulations to him, it’s a remarkable effort.”

Faint Perfume the hot favourite for Crown Oaks

Faint Perfume has been backed to the exclusion of all other runners to continue Bart Cummings remarkable Spring and win tomorrow’s Crown Oaks.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Faint Perfume had shortened from $2.00 to $1.75 and it was impossible to write a bet on any other runner.

“All the money is for Faint Perfume including a bet of $150,000 at $1.85,” said Sullivan

“The class filly usually does win this race and the way she won on Saturday it’s hard to see anything jumping out of the pack.”

“We shortened her to $2.00 after she won the Wakeful but punters took that price immediately.”

Sullivan said despite the race looking like a one act affair he would still be taking on the favourite.

“We’ll be standing Faint Perfume for a fortune and we will be hoping the likes of Melito can cause a boilover,” Sullivan said.

2009 CROWN OAKS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Faint Perfume 1.75
Valdemoro 8.00
Silent Surround 8.50
Livia 11.00
Miss With Attitude 13.00
Melito 15.00
Well Rounded 19.00
Zapurb 26.00
Savsbelle 26.00
Princess Rage 51.00
Money Angel 61.00
Perfect Rithymn 101.00
Rhiannon’s Joy 101.00

Novelty bets for Melbourne Cup

Some people like to hedge their bets by putting money on multiple horses for the Melbourne Cup. Some bookies are providing options which might make far more sense.

Here are some of the novelty bets being put up by Sportsbet. Some might of course have changed since this morning's scratching:

Can Bart Cummings continue his golden run and win his thirteenth Melbourne Cup?
Bart Cummings to train the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner $2.90

Pick the star sign of the Melbourne Cup winner, based on their foaling date.
Aquarius/Pisces/Aries/Taurus $5.30 Basaltico, Changingoftheguard, Crime Scene, Mourilyan, Munsef, Warringah
Leo/Virgo $4.10 Allez Wonder, Daffodil, Fiumicino, Kibbutz, Leica Ding, Shocking
Libra $2.65 Capecover, C’est La Gueere, Gallions Reach, Harris Tweed, Ista Kareem, Roman Emperor, Viewed
Scorpio/Sagittarius $3.30 Alcopop, Master O’Rielly, Newport, Spin Around, Zavite

Will the Melbourne Cup winner be posh, middle class or a pauper? Based on career earnings to date.
Posh ($1.1M+ career earnings) $2.60 Fiumicino, Ista Kareem, Master O’Rielly, Roman Emperor, Spin Around, Viewed
Middle Class ($500,000 - $1.099M) $4.80 Allez Wonder, C’est La Guerre, Crime Scene, Daffodil, Gallions Reach, Kibbutz, Munsef, Newport, Zavite
Paupers (less than $500,000) $2 Alcopop, Basaltico, Capecover, Changingoftheguard, Harris Tweed, Leica Ding, Mourilyan, Shocking, Warringah

Will the Melbourne Cup winner have placed at Headquarters before or will it be a Flemington virgin?
Virgins $1.67 Fiumicino, Basaltico, Mourilyan, Roman Emperor, Crime Scene, Munsef, Alcopop, Harris Tweed, Warringah, Gallions Reach, Spin Around, Daffodil, Changingoftheguard, Leica Ding
Pros $2.20 Viewed, C’est La Guerre, Master O’Reilly, Ista Kareem, Zavite, Kibbutz, Newport, Capecover, Shocking, Allez Wonder

Can you pick the age of the Melbourne Cup winner?
4YO $2.80
5YO $3.10
6YO $3.75
7YO+ $6.00

Can you pick where the Melbourne Cup winner will start from?
Barriers 1-8 $5.80
Barriers 9-16 $1.45
Barriers 17-24 $4.30

Got a thing for even or odd numbers? Cheer for 12 horses in the Melbourne Cup.
Odd number $1.60
Even number $2.35

In the Alpha-Bet market below, punters can select the group from which the winning horse will come from.
Group A $2.75 Alcopop, Allez Wonder, Basaltico, Capecover, C’est La Guree
Group B $9 Crime Scene, Daffodil, Fiumicino, Gallions Reach, Harris Tweed, Ista Kareem
Group C $5 Kibbutz, Leica Ding, Master O’Rielly, Munsef, Newport
Group D $2.25 Roman Emperor, Shocking, Spin Around, Viewed, Warringah, Zavite

Fancy one nag over another? Take your pick in the following Head to Head markets.

VIEWED VS ALCOPOP
Viewed $1.90
Alcopop $1.90

CRIME SCENE VS BASALTICO
Crime Scene $2.70
Basaltico $1.45

VIEWED VS ROMAN EMPEROR
Viewed $1.50
Roman Emperor $2.55

Alcopop into Melbourne Cup favouritism

Straight from the bookies, this latest release came five minutes ago:

Alcopop has been backed into $5.00 outright favourite at Sportingbet Australia after some huge wagers were placed on the fairytale story of this year’s Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Alcopop had been backed into $5.00 while last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, had drifted out to $5.50.

“Alcopop has been the only one they have wanted in the past 24 hours and we have taken bets of $120,000 and $35,000 on him,” Sullivan said.

“The money has dried up a little for Viewed but I am sure the Bart Cummings factor will see that change before jump time.

“Alcopop is clearly our worst result at the moment while AJC Oaks winner Daffodil is also nasty after some big bets including one of $300,000 to $20,000 were placed on her.”


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Alcopop 5.00
Viewed 5.50
Roman Emperor 8,50
Shocking 10.00
Master O’Reilly 12.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 21.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 31.00
Warringah 31.00
C’est La Guerre 31.00
Newport 41.00
Crime Scene 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 71.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 81.00
Zavite 81.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 126.00
Spin Around 201.00
Gallion’s Reach 251.00

Read tips Roman Emperor in Melbourne Cup

This year's Melbourne Cup shapes as one of the most memorable in years if the buildup is anything to go by, says IASbet's Mark Read.

"At the top of the market there's the people's hero from the bush in Alcopop ($5) and the returning champ from the people's trainer Bart Cummings in Viewed ($5)," he said.

"Shocking ($10) put in a most eye-catching run in the Lexus on Derby Day, and has been very well backed since he snuck into the field. Mark Kavanagh's luck of late has been just that Shocking and hopefully this horse can erase some of the bad memories over the past few weeks."

"I think Roman Emperor ($9) represents great value in this year's Cup. His last run was a solid second to Viewed in the Caulfield Cup, who had the sort of run that jockeys and punters dream of.

"He's an AJC Derby winner, is bred to get the trip, and has the man of the moment in his corner.

"Looking to the other races on the day for winners, Ortensia ($2.10) looks almost unbeatable in the Herald Sun Stakes over 1400m. Back to her own sex, Williams should give her the gun run and she should be too strong for these."

"Another shortie is Mark Kavanagh's Defintely Ready ($1.40) in the Schweppes Tonic 1000. His three career runs have all been dominant wins and he is simply in another class to his rivals.

Because of the short quotes on offer, perhaps have the Ortensia/Definitely Ready running double and then use that money to bet later on the Cup."

$35K bet for Alcopop in Melbourne Cup

The big punters are warming to fairytale horse Alcopop for the Melbourne Cup with some huge bets arriving for the gelding at Sportingbet Australia.

Alcopop is $5.50 second favourite behind Viewed at $5.00 but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some big bets are seeing him challenge for favouritism.

“We took a bet of $35,000 at $5.50 this morning so that punter stands to collect nearly $200,000 and he has clearly been the best backed since the barrier draw,” Sullivan said.

“I always expected the Bart Cummings factor would ensure Viewed ran favourite but the money we are seeing come for Alcopop could well change that.

“Shocking’s win on Saturday really stamped his form and punters could still make him one of the most unlikely Cup favourites ever.”

Australian Idol fiasco

Here's the verdict from one bookmaker after last night's Australian Idol debacle which saw Toby Moulton withdraw.

I'd be dirty if my money was with James Johnston to be eliminated. After all, that's the way the vote went.

Regardless, here's the verdict:

ELIMINATION BETS REFUNDED AS TOBY WITHDRAWS

Sportingbet Australia has refunded all of Sunday’s Australian Idol elimination bets following the shock withdrawal of Adelaide schoolteacher Toby Moulton.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said refunding the money was the right thing to do.

“It’s not the punters fault that one contestant decided to withdraw from the competition,” said Sullivan.

“The only fair thing to do was cancel all bets.”

Stan Walker is a $2 favourite to win Australian Idol while James Johnston is the $1.75 favourite to be eliminated next week.

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.00
Hayley Warner 2.50
Nathan Brake 6.50
James Johnston 8.00

2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 8 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
James Johnston 1.75
Nathan Brake 2.25
Hayley Warner 11.00
Stan Walker 14.00

Latest Melbourne Cup betting action

At least one punter is confident Daffodil can improve for the Melbourne Cup. They've unloaded $20K on the result. Below is the Sportingbet release:

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON DAFFODIL

Big money has arrived for AJC Oaks winner Daffodil to win the Melbourne Cup with one massive bet struck at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Daffodil shortened from $18 to $14 since the barrier draw on Saturday night as punters warmed to the mare.

“We took a bet of $300,000 to $20,000 on Daffodil along with a number of other good bets on the way in,” Sullivan said.

“Her win in the Oaks showed she is up to this class and her run in the Caulfield Cup suggests the 3200m will suit.

“She is certainly one of the top chances just below favourites Viewed and Alcopop.”

Viewed remains favourite at Sportingbet at $5.00 ahead of Alcopop at $5.50 and Roman Emperor at $9.00.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Viewed 5.00
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Master O’Reilly 13.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Warringah 26.00
C’est La Guerre 26.00
Newport 35.00
Munsef 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
Fiumicino 61.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 71.00
Zavite 71.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 101.00
Gallion’s Reach 201.00
Spin Around 201.00

Not a great weekend

As we always say, we'll tell it warts at all at Aussiepunt, and Derby Day wasn't that great for us.

We backed Rockferry to win the Victoria Derby which wasn't a terrific choice. But we've lost 7% of our bankroll, and it's time to move on - get back on the horse, as they say.

Tuesday is the biggest race day on the calendar and we'll be spending a portion of tomorrow trying to find some winners for everybody.

We'll give you all the news from corporate bookmakers to see where the money's going for the Melbourne Cup. Shocking is no doubt firming after a good run at the weekend. Expect Viewed to start favourite over Alcopop. Value will be with Master O'Reilly and Mourilyan.

But rest assured, we won't be forgetting the other races on the card.

Victoria Derby opens up

Interesting to note that what many thought was a two-horse race, all of a sudden opens up when the favourite is scratched.

Shamoline Warrior is out, and the other fancy Rockferry is steady at $5 or so.

But according to the betting, Onemorenomore, Viking Legend and Monaco Consul have all come into contention. All three are at the $5-6 mark.

Extra Zero is on the next line of betting.

I still like Rockferry, but follow the betting.

Roughie backed to win the Wakeful

This might be a decent tip for those who like value:

The Brian Smith trained Moncalieri has been backed at big odds to upset the applecart of Oaks favourites Run For Naara and Faint Perfume in Saturday’s Wakeful Stakes.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been solid backing for the daughter of Encosta De Lago.

“There’s been separate bets to win $60,000 and $20,000 on Moncalieri at $61 with little interest so far for either of the favourites,” said Sullivan.

“There’s plenty to say she can run a big race at big odds.”

2009 WAKEFUL STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Run For Naara 2.50
Faint Perfume 4.20
Melito 5.50
Jolie Brise 9.00
Silent Surround 11.00
Mont Fleuri 13.00
Formalite 23.00
Moncalieri 41.00
Savsbelle 51.00
Flotercher 201.00

Punters support the Warrior in Victoria Derby

Here's the latest Victoria Derby market information from Sportingbet:

Punters are beginning to swarm for Derby favourite Shamoline Warrior with some huge bets struck on the Mark Kavanagh trained colt.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Shamoline Warrior had been a little soft until Thursday but punters have stepped into the $3.30 about him in a big way.

“One client has had $30,000 on him amongst a string of big bets placed in the last 24 hours,” Sullivan said.

“His win last start was outstanding and it is no surprise to see punters stepping in now.”

Sullivan said Rockferry remained his worst result after some big bets were placed on the Danny O’Brien trained colt at big odds in the pre post betting.

“Rockferry is still our worst result at the moment after we took some huge bets including one to win $400,000 at $26 some weeks ago,” Sullivan said.

“However, if the money keeps coming for the Shamoline Warrior like it has in the last 24 hours, they will be as nasty as each other.”

Efficient a gamble in Melbourne Cup

If you're keen to back Efficient in the Melbourne Cup, now seems to be the time to do it:

With 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient still having to pass a vet examination before he is cleared to run on Tuesday, Sporting Australia CEO Michael Sullivan has pledged to refund any bets on him if he doesn’t line up for the Cup.

Sullivan said any bets up to $500 placed between 3.30pm on Thursday, when doubts over the horses arose and Saturday evening when the final field was declared would be refunded if he didn’t overcome the injury.

“Efficient has been posted as unlikely and normally at this stage there are no scratching refunds or deductions on other horses prices if a horse is withdrawn but I think in this case refunding punters money is the right thing to do,” Sullivan said.

“There are some doubts over the horse and many punters like to get their Cup bets on early so we are just providing them with the assurance they won’t do their money if he is ruled out.

“Obviously all bets on any scratched runner are refunded once the final field is declared but that is not until Saturday night.”

Effiecient blew from $6.00 to 8.50 at Sportingbet Australia yesterday as punters rushed to back other contenders.

“Punters put big money down yesterday on Viewed and Alcopop who are now $5.50 joint favourites while there was also strong support for Roman Emperor who shortened from $12 to $8.50,” Sullivan said.

“If all is well with Efficient though, punters are now getting great value about a former winner, who is in great form and obviously proven at the two miles.”

2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Viewed 5.50
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 8.50
Efficient (unlikely) 8.50
Vigor 14.00
Daffodil 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Mourilyan 23.00
Kirklees 23.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Capecover 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Kibbutz 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Hume 61.00
Others 81.00 Plus

Early Flemington race tips from Mark Read

Here's some tips from Mark Read for tomorrow's card:

This years Derby shapes up to be a cracker, says IASbet.com's Mark Read.

Shamoline Warrior ($3.20) has drawn wide in barrier nine, however hell likely take a sit just behind the main group and shouldnt be disadvantaged from there, said Read.

He's been very impressive in his past two runs and deserves his outright favouritism.

Rockferry ($5) was an absolute moral beaten in the Geelong Classic and could provide punters plenty of value.

He will relish the big track and I think he may show us what hes made of. Ill be on Rockferry with a saver on Shamoline Warrior.Looking to the other Group 1 races, I expect Demerit ($7) to give Irish Lights ($6) a run for her money in the Coolmore.

When the field splits, I expect these two to beat their respective groups home, with Irish Lights on the inside from barrier 1 and Demerit hitting the grandstand rail from barrier 10.

It will just depend on which group is fastest!Rangirangdoo ($3.50) destroyed his rivals in the Crystal Mile, and I think hell do the same against a crack field in the Mackinnon Stakes.

He'll get a nice sit from barrier 4 and I can see Corey Brown unleashing him with about 400m to go and swamping the front-runners.

Quite a few runners in this fine-tuning for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup and it will be an interesting race.

Typhoon Tracy ($2.10) is far superior against her own sex, though has drawn poorly (barrier 13) in the Myer Classic.

Lady Lynette ($15) provides excellent value based on her last run at the Valley and is a solid each way chance.

Good offer for Melbourne Cup

Sportsbet is offering one of the better deals I've seen for the Melbourne Cup. You'd be hard-pressed finding a similar offer from the TAB.

Sportsbet.com.au is offering punters their money back if Cups King Bart Cummings claims his 13th Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

If your horse finishes second to a Bart Cummings trained horse, Sportsbet.com.au will refund your stake to a maximum of $100.

“With the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate already in Bart’s trophy cabinet, the others in this year’s Cup could well be fighting for second place,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“As such, we’re offering punters their money back if their horse finishes second to a Bart Cummings trained horse.

“At the moment Bart has three runners with good chances (Viewed $6.50, Roman Emperor $10, Allez Wonder $34) and the special will remain if he manages to get Dandaad or Naval Escort into the Cup field via the Lexus Stakes.”

Two-horse race in Victoria Derby

Seems there are some big bets going down for Rockferry in the Victoria Derby, but Shamoline Warrior has not been forgotten.

Here's the latest from Sportsbet:

“We’ve taken a large amount of bets since the barrier draw,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane, “yet from speaking to some of the big punters, they’re waiting to see how the track will rate after the first couple of races before getting stuck in.”

“In the Derby, second-favourite Rockferry is currently our single worst result. He was a sure thing beaten in the Geelong Classic and the extra trip and wide track should suit him to a tee.

“Shamoline Warrior has won his last two in dominant fashion and is a deserved favourite, but personally I think he’ll have to bring out his very best to hold out Rockferry.”

Big bets so far:

$10,000 multi bet to win $135K – Shamoline Warrior (Derby) into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$2,000 multi bet to win $200K – Shamoline Warrior (Derby), into Alcopop (Cup), into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$733 multi bet to win $100K – Monaco Consul (Derby), into Alcopop (Cup), into Run for Naara (Oaks)
$5,000 multi bet to win $85K – Run For Naara (Wakeful), into Shamoline Warrior (Derby), into First Command (Salinger)
$6,000 each way on Rockferry at $9

Novelty bets for Victoria Derby Day

The betting market among corporate bookmakers has become hugely competitive, and everybody's looking at new ways to entice punters into having a lunge.

Sportsbet today released a heap of options which are likely to be repeated for the Melbourne Cup.

Here's a few:

Pick the star sign of the Derby winner, based on their foaling date.
Virgo $1.60 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Gathering, Our Heir Apparent, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend
Libra $3.60 Monaco Consul, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye
Scorpio $5.60 Rockferry, Prinsom

Will the Derby winner be posh or a pauper? Based on career earnings to date.
Posh ($195,000+ career earnings) $2.25 Onemorenomore, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend
Paupers (under $195,000) $1.65 The Rest

Will the Derby winner be a Cadet or a Corporal? Based on number of career runs to date.
Cadets (6 starts or less) $1.40 Monaco Consul, Our Heir Apparent, Rockferry, Shamoline Warrior
Coporals (7 starts plus) $3.00 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Gathering, Onemorenomore, Prinsom, Southern Skye, Viking Legend

Pick where the Derby winner is trained out of.
Victoria $1.65 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, Prinsom, Rockferry, Shamoline Warrior
NSW $3.65 Gathering, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye, Viking Legend
NZ $5.00 Monaco Consul, Our Heir Apparent

In each of the Alpha-Bet markets below, punters can select the group from which the Derby winner will come from.
Jockey’s surname alpha-bet
Group A $2.95 Commanage Close, Monaco Consul, Rockferry Group B $3.75 Extra Zero, Gathering, Onemorenomore, Southern Skye
Group C $2.10 Our Heir Apparent, Prinsom, Shamoline Warrior, Viking Legend

Trainer's surname
Group A $2.50 Commonage Close, Extra Zero, ShamolineWarrior
Group B $2.45 Monaco Consul, Prinsom, Rockferry, Southern Skye Group C $3.65 Gathering, Onemorenomore, Our Heir Apparent, Viking Legend

Fancy one nag over another? Take your pick in the following Head to Head markets.

Shamoline Warrior vs Rockferry
Shamoline Warrior $1.55
Rockferry $2.45

Rockferry vs Monaco Consul
Rockferry $1.70
Monaco Consul $2.15

Southern Skye vs Our Heir Apparent
Southern Skye $1.90
Our Heir Apparent $1.90

Melbourne Cup action

Expect some action in the Melbourne Cup markets immediately following acceptance.

Following is an unedited statement released today by Sportingbet Australia.

PUNTERS SWEAT ON START FOR VIGOR

Sportingbet Australia punters are sweating on the Danny O’Brien trained Vigor gaining a start in next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup with one punter standing to win over half a million dollars.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Vigor was clearly Sportingbet’s worst way at the moment with punters backing him since the all in markets opened.

“Vigor opened up as a $51 shot and punters stepped in with one bet of $500,000 to $10,000 and other punters on to win $100,000 and $50,000 at those odds,” said Sullivan.

“He’s been as short as $8.50 and has not lost popularity at any stage.”

Vigor is currently at odds of $18.00 but Sullivan said those odds would trim up if he got a run.

“His run in the Caulfield Cup was superb and if he gets a run without having to race this weekend, those odds will tighten up significantly,” Sullivan said.

Alcopop and Efficient remain $6 joint favourites at Sportingbet ahead of the Bart Cummings pair of Viewed and Roman Emperor at $7 and $11 respectively.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 6.00
Viewed 7.00
Roman Emperor 11.00
Zipping 14.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Daffodil 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Vigor 18.00
Mourilyan 19.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Shocking 26.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Kirklees 35.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Others 71.00 Plus

Punters go early for Bart in Melbourne Cup

Bart Cummings has won the season's two major races. Punters think he's a fair bet to pick up a remarkable treble in the Melbourne Cup.

At $4.50, there are better bets for mine.

Bart Cummings has been posted as a $4.50 chance to complete a historic treble and win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had launched into Bart Cumming’s horses in both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate and were doing the same for next Tuesday’s big one.

“Bart Cummings is undoubtedly the best trainer of stayers we have ever seen and punters have had a fill up following him this Spring again,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have been backing all his runners for the Cup so we have posted a price of $4.50 for any one of his horses to give him another Cup win.

“Viewed and Roman Emperor are obviously his best chances after they ran the quinella in the Caulfield Cup but it would be silly to write off any of his chances.”

Sullivan said he expected punters to lap up the $4.50 on offer for the master trainer.

“Punters and particularly fans of Bart have full pockets following the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate wins and I would expect them to launch again for the Cup,” he said.

‘I can’t see many punters been willing to take the $1.20 about him not been able to get the job done a thirteenth time.”

Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Yes, Bart Cummings will win the Cup $4.50
No, Bart Cummings will not win the Cup $1.20

Betting reopens for Australian Idol elimination

We don't mind a bet on Australian Idol, so the following news from Sportingbet comes as welcome.

Our early tip: James Johnston won't get to sing next week.

Sportingbet Australia punters now have the opportunity to bet on Australian Idol eliminations following the show’s producers decision to extend voting until Friday night.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters would be pleased with the decision.

“The phone has rung off the hook with punters wanting to bet on the eliminations but with such a short voting window it was impossible to accommodate them on more than a limited basis,” said Sullivan.

“Idol elimination betting has been extremely popular in previous years and punters will be well pleased that it’s back to the old way of doing things.”

Sportingbet Australia expects Toby Moulton ($2.25) and James Johnston ($2.50) to fight out next week’s elimination while Stan Walker ($2.50) and Hayley Warner ($2.75) the favourites to be crowned 2009 Australian Idol.


2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – ELIMINATION 1 NOVEMBER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Toby Moulton 2.25
James Johnston 2.50
Nathan Brake 5.50
Stan Walker 5.50
Hayley Warner 9.00


2009 AUSTRALIAN IDOL – WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Stan Walker 2.50
Hayley Warner 2.75
Nathan Brake 4.00
James Johnston 8.00
Toby Moulton 9.00

Thanks to followers of Aussiepunt

Thanks to those who passed on their thanks for our tips this weekend.

One punter cleaned up on So You Can Think in the Cox Plate. Another followed our tip that New South Wales would win the Champions League cricket Twenty20 competition.

Our response? No worries. Glad to be of assistance.

If you've got a tip you want to add to Aussiepunt, simply let us know and we'll share it with others.

Cricket win helps the balance

We were in danger of going backwards last night after Central Coast imploded in the soccer, but Brett Lee came to our rescue in the Champions League cricket.

NSW brought us home a $3.10 return on our speculator.

So if you have any late mail on the track this afternoon, be sure to let me and readers of the Aussiepunt blog know.

I still like Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate, but there's virtually no talk of it going into the race. Perhaps people feel it's better suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.

A tip for anybody who might be interested: Sportsbet has a fairly good promotion, allowing its members to tip on each race on the Melbourne card. It's free to enter and there's a $70,000-odd worth of prizes at the end of it.

I figure I've got nothing to lose by giving it a bash!

Smith's chip promo ... now that's creative!

Now this is creative.

Smith's goes out to find a new chip flavour and throws it out to the people.

People argue about which of four finalist chip flavours are best - the coat of arms flavour; late night kebab; popcorn; or caesar salad.

Sportingbet Australia saw an opportunity, and has consequently opened a book on which one will win.

They've got the late night kebab and coat of arms fighting for favouritism, and why not: They're basically a variation on barbecue flavour. If popcorn wins, you'll get $4 in the running, and $4.50 if you like salad in a chip.

“This competition has created great debate around the country and punters have been keen to match their tastebuds with their wallets,” CEO Michael Sullivan said.

“We’ve had plenty of phone calls from punters wanting to back their personal favourites.”

Central Coast worth looking at in soccer

Central Coast Mariners are worth looking at in tonight's game versus the Newcastle Jets.

Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.

Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.

Central Coast is still paying $2.60.

And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.

In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.

AAMI Vase latest market

The Cox Plate is not the only race of significance tomorrow:

Sportingbet Australia punters have backed Moonee Valley specialist Carrara in from $5 to $4 for tomorrow’s AAMI Vase.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said history was on the Tony Vasil trained gallopers side.

“Nine of the last twelve winners of this race have come through the Caulfield Guineas and there’s plenty of smart money for Carrara,” said Sullivan.

“While he has to be a slight doubt at the trip he could just get a soft lead and has definitely shown a liking for the track.”

Extra Zero is an easing $3.50 favourite for the AAMI Vase.

AAMI Vase
Sportingbet Australia Market
Extra Zero $3.50
Carrara $4.40
Viking Legend $4.80
Miss With Attitude $6.50
Spacecraft $7.50
Hanks $8.50
Morossa $26
Rivers Lane $31

Whobe drifting by the minute

Here's the latest releast from Sportingbet Australia, which indicates there will be some good odds floating around, no matter which horse you fancy in the Cox Plate:

Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou continues to drift in betting markets as punters swarm to back Heart of Dreams and last year’s runner up Zipping.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were betting all around the favourite who has blown from $2.50 to $3.20 following the barrier draw on Tuesday.

“Whobegotyou has been unlayable since the barrier draw as a host of other runners have been crunched in the market,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have launched at Heart of Dreams who has shortened from $8.50 on Sunday to his current price of $5.50 and there has been plenty of smart money put on him.

“Zipping has also been backed from $21 to $15 as punters look for quality weight for age performers.”

Sullivan said he expected the tide to turn at some point and punters would step into Whobegotyou tomorrow.

“He is still the best horse in the race for mine and he is four from four at the Valley so there is little doubt there will be money for him tomorrow,” Sullivan said.

“He is still our worst result as punters have been backing him for months and I think they will step in again tomorrow to make him a complete strip out if he salutes.”

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.20
Heart Of Dreams 5.50
Speed Gifted 11.00
So You Think 11.00
Scenic Shot 14.00
El Segundo 15.00
Zipping 15.00
Vision And Power 16.00
Rock Kingdom 17.00
Black Piranha 18.00
Manhattan Rain 21.00
Road To Rock 26.00
Nom De Jeu 71.00
Sir Slick 151.00

Cox Plate markets start to take shape

And here they come ... the betting movements on the Cox plate have started. Here's the first statement of the day, from IASbet.

Melbourne, 23 October 2009 - As racing's focus turns to Moonee Valley and the Cox Plate IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read says you shouldn't overlook the obvious when it comes to assessing the race.

Whobegotyou ($3) has run at the track four times for four wins, he won the Yalumba Stakes last start and is a deserving favourite.

Read suggests sticking to the local hopes with Heart Of Dreams ($5.50), Zipping ($15), and El Segundo ($15) all creating interest.

El Segundo has won the race before, Zipping was second last year and Heart Of Dreams has been running great races in all the key lead ups."

Bart Cummings three year old So You Think ($15 into $11) has been one of the better backed runners and as we learnt last week, ignore Bart at your peril!

The Schweppes Stakes (1200m) should be a fantastic race according to Read.

"This is a Group One field in a Group Two race," Read said. "Lucky Secret ($3.30) and Apache Cat ($3.60) must be respected with fantastic Moonee Valley records, but Light Fantastic ($13) and Danleigh ($9) represent the value. Danleigh won the Manikato Stakes over the same Distance at the Valley a month ago and should again be prominent. "

Random integrity comment

This has nothing to do with this blog's usual content stream, but I note there are moves to tighten laws on streaming of information.

It's about time we got rid of people posting incredulous reviews about products they have never seen, let alone tested or used. You won't see any of that rubbish here.

For the sake of full disclosure, here's how this blog works: If you click on a Google ad, I get a few cents. Last time I looked, there was about $6 in the account.

If you open an account after clicking on the affiliate ads at the side of the page, I get a commission. I'm not sure how much because it hasn't happened yet, and frankly, I'm not worried if it ever happens.

The bottom line: This site is for fun. I do it because I enjoy it. This is an open invitation to join in the banter, offer fellow punters a piece of advice, a tip, an observation, friendly fire, whatever takes your fancy.

And my only advice for now: Bet only what you can afford. If it's not enjoyable, don't do it.

Cox Plate odds

In terms of Australian sport, it's all about racing over the next couple of weeks, at least until the end of the Spring Carnival. And the next big race on the calendar is the Cox Plate.

There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.

Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:

Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.

“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.

“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.

“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.

“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13

NSW good bet to win champions league

Any Twenty20 bet in cricket is fraught with danger, but we think New South Wales has both the form and the side which can beat anybody on an even playing field.

The bowling attack is by far supreme to any other. Lee, Clark, Bollinger and Hauritz could well be Australia's bowling lineup, as could Warner, Hughes and Katich at the top order. Neither can we underestimate the all-round ability of Moises Henriques.

Victoria is a threat. Cameron White, Brad Hodge and David Hussey can tear an attack apart, and they have Siddle and Harwood who can keep opposition lineups quiet, despite Harwood going for 38 off his three overs against Cape Cobras last time they met.

Cape Cobras are similarly dangerous, in that Herschell Gibbs, JP Duminy and Puttick can move the scoring along early. Zondeki has been bowling okay, but it's hard to see them bowling too many sides out cheaply. It's their batting which can cause real problems.

Trinidad and Tobago has been the real surprise packet, and like any decent Twenty20 side, can get a move on if things go right.

Given the inconsistency of the competition, and the somewhat random nature of this form of cricket, we'll be having no more than a speculator (ie, 5% of our bankroll). But all things fair and even, we should be on a winner with New South Wales, and I'm tipping it will be against the Cape Cobras.

Latest odds are as follows:
New South Wales $3.10
Victoria $3.50
Trinidad & Tobago $3.60
Cape Cobras $4.25

Latest Cox Plate movements

At Aussiepunt, we'll be following racing market fluctuations over the coming week. But following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia which give a good indication of how people see this weekend's Cox Plate in its early phases of development:

Lloyd Williams’ horse Zipping has been heavily backed to go one better than last year and win the Cox Plate shortening from $21 to $16 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Zipping had been the best backed runner alongside favourite Whobegotyou in the last 24 hours.

“Zipping’s run in the Cox Plate was enormous last year and with him being the only survivor from the placegetters from last year, punters have stepped in,” Sullivan said.

“We took bets of $60,000 to $3000, $20,000 to $1000 and a number of other good sized bets as the price trimmed up to $16.

“He has shown enough this time in to suggest he will run a big race and the stable knows how to get them ready for the big races.”

Sullivan said Whobegotyou remained Sportingbet’s worst result and there was still strong money for the favourite at $2.50 this week.

“Whobegotyou has been our worst result for a long time and punters have kept coming for him,” Sullivan said.

2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market

Whobegotyou 2.50
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Speed Gifted 8.00
El Segundo 10.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Black Piranha 16.00
So You Think 17.00
Rock Kingdom 21.00
Efficient 26.00
Viewed 31.00
Vigor 31.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Roman Emperor 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 61.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Jolies Shinju 101.00

Australian Idol form guide: Final 6

I didn't put up a new form guide for Australian Idol last week because it all seemed too hard - not putting up the form, but deciding where everyone was at.

But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.

So here's the form:

Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.

Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.

Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.

James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.

Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.

Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.

Four weeks worth of winners!

Aussiepunt has tipped followers winners four weeks in a row.

As readers know, each Friday we invite a guest tipster. We try to find people who have a bit of a clue, and it's proven worthwhile.

This week, Haydn Lane from IASbet knew the pressure was on. Three guest tipsters before him had sent our bankroll moving forward so he went in search of a few winners from the racing stable of the betting pit.

His leading racing tips, Shamoline Warrior and First Command both ran home, giving us a stress free weekend, and shooting our bankroll 30% further into the black.

The only let down was Jorge Lorenzo who, as watchers of this afternoon's Moto GP will know, skidded off the track on the first turn of the race.

For anyone who followed Haydn in the Caulfield Cup (and we're sorry we didn't) would have had an each way bet on Viewed, making their weekend even better.

At Aussiepunt, we share tips because we love what we do. That's why they're free. Here's some pretty good reasons to share the secret:

Week 1: Aussiepunt starts with a bankroll of $100. AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell tips two from four winners, including a 10-1 shot, spiralling our bankroll forward 67%.

Week 2: Matt Campbell from Sportsbet gives us only two tips. But one of them is Speed Gifted which runs home at 6-1. Our bankroll takes another 73% boost.

Week 3: Michael Sullivan, CEO from Sportingbet Australia gives us three tips. The two horses lose, although Tootsie runs second giving us each way odds. He makes up for it by tipping the soccer draw between the Socceroos and the Netherlands. Bankroll up 16%.

Week 4: Haydn Lane from IASbet and Sportsbet picks two winners which run home at $3.60 and $2.50 (on the tote, some might have taken higher odds with bookies earlier). Bankroll up 31%.

Bankroll boosts to some might seem smaller than they should be. But our formula is conservative to prepare us for possible losses. We put 10% on each of our guest tipsters tips, which mean we rarely invest more than 30% of our bankroll on any given weekend.

In addition to the above, we've tipped winners in rugby league, Australian Idol, cricket, rugby union and television. We've provided form guides for cricket, golf, football, politics, poker and other events. And we'll continue to do so.

Our bankroll sits triple what it started at. And we've taken some unlucky beats with narrow losses in cricket and footy.

But therein lies our mission: To gamble responsibly, having plenty of fun along the way.