William Reid Stakes

Plenty of news coming through on the William Reid Stakes. First, from IASbet:

TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES

Betting for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes has been turned on its head following the scratching of hot favourite Black Caviar reports IASbet.com's John Hartnett.

"It's a wide open race now without the champion filly," said Hartnett. "The three place getters of the Lightning Stakes are now the top three in the market in Nicconi ($5.50 into $3.20), Wanted ($6.50 into $3.40), and Shellscrape ($11.00 into $4.50)."

"I think Shellscrape finds his right race here. He hasn't raced at the Valley, although he is very suited to the 1200m and he likes the cut out of the ground."

IASbet.com has a range of head to head markets available on the William Reid Stakes, including Nicconi ($1.80) vs Wanted ($1.90), Shellscrape ($1.70) vs Light Fantastic ($2.15), Turffontein ($1.70) vs Snipers Bullet ($2.15), and Master OReilly ($2.75) vs Mentality ($1.45).

And from Sportingbet:

NICCONI NEW WILLIAM REID FAVOURITE

The David Hayes trained Nicconi is Sportingbet Australia’s new William Reid favourite following the shock withdrawl of odds on favourite Black Caviar.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Nicconi’s better record at WFA entitled him to be a slight favourite ahead of Black Caviar’s stablemate Wanted.

“Nicconi deserves the slight edge in the odds but we’re more than prepared to lay him at the $3.20,” said Sullivan.

“There had been strong support for Nicconi even before Black Caviar’s withdrawal as it shortened from $6.50 to $5.50 and I expect to see the money keep coming.

“The scratching of the favourite has done him no favours with the Chris Waller trained Shellscrape now likely to get a soft lead in the race.”

WILLIAM REID STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Nicconi 3.20
Wanted 3.30
Shellscrape 4.80
Light Fantastic 6.00
Sniper’s Bullet 9.00
Turffontein 11.00
Mentality 21.00
Master O’Reilly 101.00

Gold Logie betting opens

Latest statement from Sportingbet:

STONE THE FLAMIING CROWS - COULD ALF GET THE GOLD LOGIE?

Sportingbet Australia has opened betting on the 2010 Gold Logie.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he expected veteran actress Rebecca Gibney to repeat last year’s success.

“Gibney is the lead actress in Australia’s most popular drama and has always been popular with Australian viewers,” said Sullivan.

“While perennial favourites such as Rove McManus and Adam Hills have to be respected, she looks the winner.”

Sullivan said he was wary of a repeat of last year’s Ian Smith campaign repeating with Home And Away veteran Ray Meagher.

“We have Meagher safe in the market at $7.50 after hearing whispers that there could be a vote for Alf campaign,” Sullivan said.

“There’s no doubt he’d be a popular winner and must be respected as the longest serving actor in any serial all over the world.”

2010 GOLD LOGIE WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 2.50
Rove McManus 4.50
Adam Hills 5.50
Ray Meagher 7.50
Natalie Bassingthwaighte 9.00
Rodger Corser 11.00
Joelene Anderson 11.00
Sonia Kruger 14.00
Daniel MacPherson 17.00
Eddie McGuire 21.00
Michael Caton 26.00
Grant Denyer 31.00
Others Quoted

Breaking news: Friday afternoon plunge

Press statement from Sportingbet:

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON KAVANAGH COLT

Sportingbet Australia punters have stepped into boom Mark Kavanagh trained colt We’re Gonna Rock for this afternoon’s Clayton RSL Handicap at Moonee Valley.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said after days of ignoring the star 3yo punters had struck in a big way over the past hour.

“We’ve taken some good bets on We’re Gonna Rock including a Best Fluctuation bet of $22,500.”

“Sportingbet Australia punters have unloaded and it looks like this colt will be one of our biggest stands of the weekend.”

An educated coin flip

I don't usually tout offers, but this is a seriously good one: A coin flip with the advantage of knowledge - call it an educated coin flip:

Victor Chandler are offering EVENS both sides of the handicap in all Six Nations matches!

Applies to all bets pre-event and in-running up to the start of the 2nd half. Internet & telephone bets only.

Good value in CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield

Quite often if the bookmakers are willing to take on a favourite, we should be too. And there are some top chances at good odds here. Don't totally discard Zipping.

TRACY ALL THE RAGE FOR SPORTINGBET ORR STAKES

The Peter Moody juggernaut looks set to continue with the exciting Typhoon Tracy an early $1.75 for Saturday’s Group One Sportingbet C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting to see mountains of money for the Red Ransom mare.

“Typhoon Tracy may be at short odds but gee she looks tough to beat,” said Sullivan.

“I’m expecting the phone lines to run hot all the way through to Saturday.”

Sullivan said he was prepared to take the favourite on with the field full of quality gallopers.

“The likes of Shocking and Viewed are capable of running well fresh and could cause an upset, ” said Sullivan.

“While gallopers such as Sniper’s Bullet and Danzylum may just have a fitness edge at the last part of 1400 metres and Heart Of Dreams has to be respected.

“We’ll be laying Typhoon Tracy all day, then sitting back and hoping for an upset.”


2010 SPORTINGBET C F ORR STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Typhoon Tracy 1.75
Heart Of Dreams 4.50
Sniper’s Bullet 7.50
Raffaello 10.00
Viewed 17.00
Danzylum 17.00
Shocking 26.00
Zipping 26.00
Sirmione 61.00
Littorio 61.00

Early odds for Newmarket horse racing

Sportingbet has been busy today. Another one geared primarily towards Australian punters. It shows early odds for the Newmarket. Unless you've got an inside tip, I'd be leaving it well alone until acceptances:

COMMON INTEREST BACKED TO WIN NEWMARKET

The Lee Freedman trained colt Common Interest has been well backed a big odds for the Newmarket, shortening from $81 to $41 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had been well supported since his good third when resuming in the Kensington Stakes.

“We took one bet of $80,000 to $1000 on Common Interest and there was more good money for him at $71 and $61,” Sullivan said.

“The Newmarket is obviously a steep rise in class but he has a great winning strike rate and the money suggests he will continue to improve through the preparation.”

Sullivan also reported good support for Tollesprit who has shortened from $61 to $26 following his impressive win on Saturday.

“We shortened him to $41 following his win on Saturday but the money came for immediately with one bet to win $20,000,” Sullivan said.

“Shane Fliedner suggested the horse still had a lot of improvement in him from that win so he certainly looks like one to follow.”


2010 NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Black Caviar 5.25
All Silent 6.00
Nicconi 11.00
Weekend Hussler 13.00
Typhoon Tracy 14.00
Wanted 14.00
Starspangledbanner 14.00
Avenue 15.00
Trusting 16.00
Shellscrape 16.00
We're Gonna Rock 18.00
Eagle Falls 20.00
Headway 21.00
Light Fantastic 23.00
Swift Alliance 23.00
Burdekin Blues 26.00
Bank Robber 26.00
Irish Lights 26.00
Tickets 26.00
Tollesprit 26.00
Denman 31.00
Danleigh 31.00
Hay List 31.00
Demerit 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
King Pulse 35.00
Turffontein 35.00
Duporth 41.00
Court 41.00
Rarefied 41.00
Captain Coltish 41.00
Common Interest 41.00
Eight Bills 41.00
Cannonball 51.00
Dreamscape 51.00
El Segundo 51.00
Chasm 51.00
Occurrence 51.00
Gold Trail 51.00
Gran Sasso 61.00
Secret Flyer 61.00
Royal Ida 61.00
Arinos 61.00
Keano 61.00
Kroner 61.00
Governance 71.00
Huxssen 71.00
Velocitea 71.00
Others 81.00 Plus

A tip to tell the grandchildren about

For those willing to back the rank outsider, perhaps looking for a fairytale story to tell the grandchildren, this might be the one.

It's the latest news from Sportingbet, geared primarily towards Australian punters.


BOLTER BACKED TO WIN DONCASTER

The Kerry Parker trained gelding Brilliant Light has been backed at long odds to win the Doncaster following a breakthrough campaign in the Spring.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the horse would need to improve markedly from his three wins on the trot last year but one punter had backed the 4yo gelding to win $100,000.

“There’s certainly been a bit of a nibble with Brilliant Light’s price firming from $401 to $251 in early betting,” said Sullivan.

“If there’s as much improvement in the horse as last time in it could prove to be money well spent.

“It is obviously a massive leap in class but we took a bet of $100,000 to $250 which would certainly suggest the horse is primed for a big campaign.”


2010 DONCASTER MILE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 9.00
Rangirangdoo 11.00
So You Think 12.00
Denman 14.00
More Joyous 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Typhoon Tracy 15.00
Trusting 16.00
Heart Of Dreams 16.00
Rock Kingdom 18.00
Weekend Hussler 19.00
Theseo 19.00
Kidnapped 21.00
Black Piranha 23.00
Drumbeats 26.00
Irish Lights 26.00
Were Gonna Rock 26.00
Dealer Principal 31.00
Olonhro 31.00
All Silent 31.00
Black Caviar 31.00
Neroli 31.00
Danleigh 35.00
Demerit 35.00
Hot Danish 35.00
Road To Rock 35.00
Melito 41.00
Sister Madly 41.00
Governance 41.00
Mcclintock 41.00
Snipers Bullet 41.00
Vision And Power 41.00
Wall Street 41.00
Duporth 51.00
Katie Lee 51.00
Raffaello 51.00
Set For Fame 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Alcopop 51.00
Dao Dao 51.00
Palacio De Cristal 51.00
Shellscrape 51.00
Speed Gifted 51.00
Tickets 51.00
Walking Or Dancing 51.00
Wanted 51.00
Daffodil 61.00
Jellylorum 61.00
Lodge The Deeds 61.00
Others 71.00 Plus
Brilliant Light 251.00

Rudd in trouble

Punters are usually very good when it comes to tipping elections. If that's the case, we are starting to see the slide of the government. Albeit still at long odds, maybe Rudd is a little on the nose.

I won't be joining those who consider Abbott to be a good bet, though.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet Australia:

PUNTERS SAY RUDD GOVERNMENT IN FOR A FIGHT

Punters have moved with today’s Newspoll, getting behind the opposition of Tony Abbott as the figures show this parliamentary season will be no cakewalk for the Rudd Government.

The Opposition have shortened from $4.25 into $4.00 in Sportingbet Australia’s federal election market following today’s polling which shows the Coalition edging ahead in the primary vote 41-40.

While Kevin Rudd’s Government retains an election-winning lead of four points in two-party preferred, their slide from a ten-point lead has seen them drift in betting from $1.20 out to $1.25.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Tony Abbott’s pugilistic style seems to have cut through on complex issues like emissions trading, where the Government is having trouble articulating its policies.

“In boxing, leading with your chin is always a dangerous strategy, but Tony Abbott has made a career out of it – and punters get it,” said Mr Sullivan.

“This is the first time since the 2007 election when we have been taking more bets on the Coalition than the Government.

“In this session of parliament I think we’ll see the government on the back foot for the first time in three years and that could well see the Coalition’s odds trim up further.”

AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor $1.25
Coalition $4.00

Will Wayne Rooney score?

News from Victor Chandler:

ROO BEAUTY!
Sunday - Arsenal v Man Utd, Kick off 4.00pm, Live on Sky Sports 1
If WAYNE ROONEY scores at ANYTIME in the match Victor Chandler will refund all losing Correct Score and First Goalscorer bets as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per person. Applies to singles only placed prior to kick-off. Internet and telephone bets only. Free bets credited within 24 hours.

Lightning Stakes novelty bets

Sometimes I find myself undecided between two horses, and the novelty bets help solve the dilemma. I've heard some - let's say more regular punters - say the novelty bets are for mugs.

Granted, they're there to increase bookmaker turnover, but I beg to differ in that they merely help open up the field to increase our chances of a win. That is, of course, if we can isolate the novelty bet which best suits our predictions.

Here's the latest from IASbet.com on the Lightning Stakes in Melbourne.

YOUNG OR OLD TO STRIKE IN THE LIGHTNING?

IASbet.com has a range of novelty markets for punters to choose from on the Lightning Stakes at Flemington.
Punters can pick whether the winner will be aged three or four and over, whether or not a Group 1 winning horse will win the race, and whether an odd or an even-numbered horse will take the winner's cheque home.

Will a three-year-old or an older horse win the Lightning Stakes?
$1.55 Any 3YO winner
$2.45 Any 4YO+ winner

Will a Group 1 winning horse win the Lightning Stakes?
$1.55 Group 1 winner to win
$2.45 Non-Group 1 winner to win

Will an even or an odd horse win the Lightning Stakes?
$1.90 Even-numbered horse
$1.90 Odd-numbered horse

Guest tipster Friday - free tips

It's Friday again, and although I'm a bit late in the day, we've gotten a hold of some free tips from TAB sportsbet in New South Wales.

The racing tips usually go fairly well and despite a bad week last week, we've scanned over the latest offering and figure they're okay.

The soccer tips are usually only for Australian soccer and the bloke tips more draws than I've ever seen. I saw a theory on a UK betting site which insisted betting all up combinations on the draw in every game was a profitable exercise. Perhaps that's the same theory this tipster works on.

Regardless, for international readers who are following the Friday guest tips, most Australian agencies will take bets on these tips.

They come from racing follower Andrew Bensley:

The first kicks off at the Harness Racing tonight. All races are quoted in Sydney time:

Harness
Friday 22nd January
Harold Park Race 5 - 9:00pm
No.3 - CLONTARF LADY

Gallops
Saturday 23rd January
Rosehill Race 5 - 3:50pm
No.9 - CHANCE BYE

Greyhounds
Saturday 23rd January
Wentworth Park Race 1 - 7:27pm
No.7 - WINSOME JOE

Our balance remains at $100 so we'll whack 10% of the stack on each race ... no half measures. All will be to come first past the post.

Good luck!

Horse racing: Black Caviar odds

I personally don't understand why you'd take the novelty odds when you can all up on two races for the same return. Trainers are always keen to squeeze "one more" race out of a champion horse ... which just decreases your chances of a novelty 7-1 return.

It's a nice option, but our advice: Feel free to get on Black Caviar early, but ignore the novelty bet.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet:

The wraps on boom filly Black Caviar have been that big that Sportingbet Australia have posted her as a $7.00 chance to go through her entire preparation unbeaten.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the reports of Black Caviar’s work going into Friday night’s Australia Stakes had seen punters wanting to get on her in every way possible.

“She is $1.40 for the Australia Stakes which may well be overs, if the early money is anything to go by, as punters are knocking down the door to get on her,” Sullivan said.

“There has been good money for her in the Newmarket as well with her price shortening for $6.00 to $5.50 in the past 24 hours.

“We have her $7.50 to go through the preparation undefeated and I think punters will come for that as it is likely to be only the three starts in the Australia Stakes and William Reid, where she will be very short, and then the Newmarket.”

“If she dominates those two races like everyone is expecting, then she is going to be pretty short in the Newmarket and the $7.50 will look very good all of a sudden.”

Here De Angels is on the second line of betting at Sportingbet for the Australia Stakes at $3.00 with the early scratching of Heart of Dreams meaning Royal Ida is third favourite at $15.00.

“At this stage we haven’t seen any money for the other contenders and I think Black Caviar can probably only get beaten if she muddles the start and finds trouble,” Sullivan said.

WILL BLACK CAVIAR WIN EVERY START THIS PREPARATION?
Sportingbet Australia Market
YES, Black Caviar Wins Every Start This Preparation 7.00
NO, Black Caviar Does Not Win Every Start This Prep 1.11

AUSTRALIA STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Black Caviar 1.40
Here De Angels 3.00
Royal Ida 15.00
La Rocket 41.00
Ferocia 201.00

Australian Open tennis tips Thursday

Well, we almost got it right with a huge upset in the tennis last night, tipping that Bernard Tomic would be a real show. He lasted the five sets before going down to the far more experienced Marin Cilic.

Our bet of the day, however, did get up ... just.

Forent Serra overcame Jarkko Nieminen in another five setter.

Today's tip of the day is for Tipsarevic to overcome veteran Tommy Haas. Tipper, as I like to call him, is at $2.15 or thereabouts which is a great return.

Australian Open tips

One of our outsider tips to win the Australian Open was upset in the first round - Robin Soderling. He seems to do well against the better players but has a mind explosion against lower ranked opponents. We'll have to live and learn from that experience.

But two others, Russians Davydenko and Dementieva, are still there. Should one of those win their respective tournaments, we've done quite well.

The following press release was from the weekend, which means it's a little outdated. It does, however, show that there's been plenty of money floating around. It also shows for whom.

For today's matches, there's not a lot of value around. But Bernard Tomic is at $6.70 to beat Marin Cilic. Ignore the rankings. Tomic is at 289 in the world, while Cilic is 14th. But Tomic has had good wins in the last month, including the scalps of Novak Djokovic and Radek Stepanek in warm up tournaments. He's not without a chance, particularly with the home crowd behind him.

In other games, Viktor Troicki is a player rising in the rankings and comes up against Florian Mayer who comes off the back of a 2 sets to love comeback win in the first round. Troicki is at $1.47 and should win, regardless of how pumped Mayer is.

Bet of the day for mine is Florent Serra to beat Jarkko Nieminen at $1.68. It's better than bank interest, that one! Serra has a 4-1 record against Nieminen who seems to have struggled to get past the first round of most tournaments of late, accounting for his falling world ranking.

TENNIS: BAGHDATIS BACKED FROM $151 TO $51

Marcos Baghdatis has been heavily backed to enjoy another good run at this year’s Australian Open following his win in Sydney.

Baghdatis, who opens his campaign on Tuesday against Paolo Lorenzi, has shortened from $151 last week to $51 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Cypriot was very popular with punters in Sydney last week and the money had also arrived for a shock Australian Open win.

“Baghdatis was well backed against Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters in Sydney and punters rallied behind him in his semi final and final win as well,” Sullivan said.

“We did bet as much as $331 when markets were posted a couple of months ago but the real interest has come since he showed he was in top form in Sydney.”

“We took one bet of $66,000 to $1000 and he has been as popular as any other player.”

Sullivan said all the punter interest had been away from pre tournament favourites Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

“Punters are certainly looking for value with many thinking the big three are still some way off top form,” he said.

“There has been good money for Novak Djokovic who has shortened from $9.00 to $6.50 and for US Open winner Juan Martin Del Potro.

“Of the roughies, there has been good money for Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic and Robin Soderling.”

Gianfranco Zola to stay at West Ham

Here's some latest markets in the English Premier League. The 40% return for Zola could be worth taking, but as regular followers of this blog will know, we rarely advise that people take any odds under $1.50.

THE STAR OF DAVIDS?

Victor Chandler make it a 2/5 shot that Gianfranco Zola is still the West Ham manager on June 1st after David Sullivan and David Gold gave the Italian their backing as they took over the East End club today. The firm go 7/4 that he gets the bullet.

“It’s a well worn joke that when the chairman gives a manager his backing it means the exact opposite, but we feel that the two David’s are sincere in their wish to see Zola succeed at Upton Park.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.

“That said Zola still has to do the business on the park, and if the Hammers don’t start climbing the table soon then Gold and Sullivan might have no option but to change things.”

The firm also make it a 5/6 shot that the Hammers get over 20.5 Premier League points from now until the end of the season, and the same price that they don’t manage that points tally.

Gianfranco Zola to be West Ham manager on June 1st 2010

Yes 2/5
No 7/4

West Ham Points with Sullivan & Gold in charge (2009/2010 season)

Under 20.5 points 5/6
Over 20.5 points 5/6

Avatar favourite to win Oscar

Sorry folks, I've been away for the last week, so there's a stack of media statements from bookies which I'm about to post on the site. After watching the Golden Globes on Monday, it seems there is some credence to this one.

It looks to be one of the most open contests for "best film" at this year's Academy Awards we've had for a long while. This means there could be some value.

It will take some courage, however, to run with an outsider. The best value I can see is "Precious" at 17-1 given that it seems to have all the politically correct attributes which the academy likes, but "Up in the air" could be a strong showing.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet:

WE BET AVATAR DOESN'T WIN

Sportingbet Australia bookmakers are prepared to risk boom movie Avatar repeating it’s Golden Globe success at March’s Academy Awards and are betting over the odds at $1.80.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Avatar has history against it winning an Oscar.

“Avatar is a serious contender after taking out its category at the Golden Globes,” said Sullivan.

“But to put things into perspective The Hangover also won its category and would be 500/1 to win a Best Picture Oscar.

“ Add to that the fact that no Science Fiction film, including ET, has ever taken out an Oscar for Best Picture and I just don’t think Avatar should be odds on.”

Sullivan rates second favourite The Hurt Locker ($2.75) a massive chance and also gives Up In The Air ($3.50) and roughie Inglorious Basterds ($13.00) solid hopes of upsetting the favourite.

ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market

Avatar 1.80
The Hurt Locker 2.75
Up In The Air 3.50
Inglorious Basterds 13.00
A Serious Man 13.00
Precious 17.00
Nine 21.00
An Education 21.00
Julie & Julia 31.00
The White Ribbon 31.00
Invictus 34.00
Up 41.00
The Road 41.00
The Last Station 41.00
The Lovely Bones 51.00
The Messenger 51.00
Others 67.00 Plus

Brian Laws at 9/1 to leave

Wigan to concede the most goals seems like value. Here's the latest press release from Victor Chandler:

Victor Chandler have installed Brian Laws at 9/1 to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post, and just 5/2 that they finish bottom this season after he was given the nod as Burnley’s new boss, and the firm admit that it was an appointment that took them by surprise.

“This seems a bizarre selection and we fear for the club during the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Dave Jenkins.

“It seems that everything that Coyle had built up could collapse and we really feel they’ll struggle to adapt. Laws is not renowned for his passing football. I hope the Clarets fans have their neck braces ready because it won’t be pretty from now on. This could well end in tears.”

The firm also make Burnley the 7/4 favourites now to concede the most goals this season. They have conceded 40 goals so far closely followed in the betting by Hull City (42) at 2/1 and by Wigan (44) at 5/2.

Burnley to finish bottom
Yes 5/2
No 1/4

Brian Laws to be the Next Premier Manager to leave post 9/1

Who will Concede Most Goals This Season?
Burnley (40) 7/4
Hull City (42 2/1
Wigan (44) 5/2
West Ham (37) 6/1
Blackburn (39) 7/1

Australia vs Pakistan in Hobart

Below is a release from Sportingbet Australia.

The draw might well indeed be well backed, but it's difficult not to see Australia making it a 3-0 whitewash of the series.

With all the turmoil in the Pakistan team surrounding the selection, or non-selection as the case might well turn out to be, of Kamran Akhmal, the Pakistan temperament could go one of two ways. They could self-destruct (which is the most likely scenario) or they could perform out of their skin.

For mine, they had their chance in Sydney and blew it. My advice: Stay well clear of this betting market due to its unpredictability, but if you really must bet, Australia at $1.72 is the best option.

And remember, rain sometimes enhances the likelihood of a result, particularly if it manages to affect the wicket. Players might need only two hours on each of the last three days to secure a result.

Pakistan’s improved performance in the second Test and the threat of rain has seen punters swarm to back the draw for the third test starting tomorrow in Hobart.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the draw had been backed from $3.65 to $3.30 in the last 24 hours with long range forecasts predicting rain over the last three days.

“The draw has been the only option punters have wanted to back with a number of good bets including one of $4000 at $3.65,” said Sullivan.

“With a prediction of an 80 percent chance of rain for each of the last three days punters are willing to risk Pakistan lasting the first two days without any major damage.”

Australia remain ruling $1.72 favourites at Sportingbet Australia following their miraculous come from behind win in Sydney.

“The win in Sydney could well have smashed the confidence of Pakistan, who really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, so Australia will remain favourites unless the rain really threatens to disrupt play in a big way,” Sullivan said

THIRD TEST – AUSTRALIA V PAKISTAN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Australia 1.72
Draw 3.30
Pakistan 5.50

Football tip: Get on Manchester City

If you're looking for a longer term investment, Manchester City is a fantastic bet.

A great win at the weekend might mean they're finally putting early-season criticism behind them to produce the results everybody was expecting.

Yes, it does take time for a team to gel. It might just be starting to happen, and with 8.5 points start, it's a great bet.

I'm not as convinced about Everton or Tottenham.

Victor Chandler have opened up several season handicap match bets featuring some old city rivals in the Premier League. They have matched up Man United with Man City, Liverpool with Everton and Arsenal with Tottenham. VC’s spokesman Neal Wilkins thinks that the underdogs in the bets will be the most popular.

“We suspect that we’ll be laying Man City, Everton and Tottenham. City look quite menacing at the moment whereas United seem to be floundering a bit, Everton are slowly getting their act together and Tottenham look like they are only going to improve as the season goes on.”

Man City are getting a handicap of +8.5 points over United, Everton are getting +19.5 points against their city rivals, and Tottenham receive +11.5 against their arch enemies.

Premier League Season Match Bets

Man City (+8.5) 5/6
Man United (-8.5) 5/6

Everton (+19.5) 5/6
Liverpool (-19.5) 5/6

Tottenham (+11.5) 5/6
Arsenal (-11.5) 5/6

Premier League goal scores

If someone said at the beginning of the season that they'd give you better than even money on Chelsea scoring most goals this season - oh, and they'd give you eight goals head start - you'd probably take it.

The same scenario exists now, and we're well into the season. I intentionally don't edit many press releases, so here's the latest from Victor Chandler:

Man City are now 7/1 to be the Premier League highest scorers with Victor Chandler after bagging four goals in last night’s convincing victory over Blackburn. City have now hit the net 42 times in the Premier League so far this season, but are still some way behind the leaders Arsenal who have netted 53.

“The Gunners are clear favourites with 53 goals, but the pack are quite capable of mounting a challenge.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “It only takes a couple of big wins and the whole complexion changes.”

Man United are currently in second place with 46 goals, closely followed by Chelsea on 45. Man City and Tottenham are next best on 42, with Liverpool on 37.

Who will score the most goals in the Premier League this season

Arsenal (53) 11/8
Chelsea (45) 7/4
Man United (46) 2/1
Man City (42) 7/1
Tottenham (42) 10/1
Liverpool (37) 16/1

Australian Open tennis start list

There is no doubt that Roger Federer and Raphael Nadal will start favourites for the Australian Open.

It's interesting to see that Juan Martin Del Potro is currently nestled between the two in terms of favouritism stakes.

Granted, it's always hard to go past a champion and you'll be getting better than even money on Federer. The media are much more quiet than they were last year when the Fed's pre-event results were just as poor as they are this year.

I guess they're not quite as keen to have mud on their face in case he again finishes the year as the world's top-ranked player.

But let's look at form. Del Potro is fresh from a big win but hasn't played the traditional warm up events. That makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity and difficult to back.

Slide down the list to Nikolay Davydenko. He's the form player, coming from his masters win late last year and his win in last week's warm up event, where he came back from a bagel down in the first set to defeat Raffa.

It's always difficult to bet on Davydenko. In the big money events, he's likely to come out and surprise everyone, yet he's equally able to "throw" - whether intentional or not - his first round match. But at 10/1, he's worth a small investment.

The other one is Robin Soderling. The Swede broke a 12-match losing streak against Federer in Abu Dhabi and has beaten Nadal two out of their last three encounters. He's not yet at the point where he'll consistently win Grand Slams and word is he's not overly liked by the players. But he is erratically capable of anything.

At 25/1, Soderling is a tall man with a big serve and he likes the Melbourne surface. At the odds, he's well worth an investment.

In the women's event, Kim Clijsters (3/1) looks hard to beat, especially if Justine Henin is ruled out. It's not smart to totally eliminate the Williams sisters, particularly Serena who as world number 1 will start favourite to win the event.

But Clijsters is the form player - looking fit and happy.

For those looking for an outsider, Elena Dementieva fires up at 14/1. There was a time last year when she strung together more than 10 games on the trot and was the world's form player, until she fell heavily to American giant killer Melanie Oudin.

Postponed Premier League matches turns weekend sour

There's good news and bad news.

The good news is we haven't lost any money.

The bad news is that each of Neal Wilkins' tips for the weekend were on matches postponed by Premier League officials due to the weather.

Guest tipsters will be back this Friday, with Neal Wilkins to have another crack. We'll also have another surprise celebrity from the sporting world.

So, balance after week 1 remains at $100.

KFC Big Bash market ... get on quick

I'm not usually keen on futures markets, but this one is great value. Western Australia overnight - thanks probably to commentary from Mark Waugh who said he'd placed a bet at $9 - has firmed two points to win the KFC Big Bash.

Western Australia has won only one of its three games, but has struck some bad luck with Chris Gayle's injury and other factors.

But they're a terrific side and with the Marsh brothers hitting fantastic form in their last win against Victoria and with Gayle likely to return in their next encounter, they're a real chance.

They'll have to win four games straight, but that's not beyond their well-rounded outfit.

They're still at $7 with Sportsbet, and $6.60 with Betfair, but I wouldn't expect those odds to remain intact for too long. Now's the time to get on, if only for a speculator - we'd suggest 5% of your bankroll.

On a slight tangent, it was interesting to see Queensland last night and the irony of their management policies. It's the side which couldn't buy a Sheffield Shield win in the 70s and 80s, despite some of the world's best players chipping in - Viv Richards not being the least.

Now, they're the only team in the KFC Big Bash not to have an international import. The irony is, it won't matter. They still won't win.

That said, James Hopes is terrific. I look forward to his presence in the Australian one-day team. Let's hope Watson doesn't steal his place.

How will Darren Ferguson hold up?

Neal, quoted below, is our guest tipster this weekend. He's actively promoting new markets for Victor Chandler. And given there's no racing, all attention is being put on the football.

This is their latest release:

Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.

“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”

Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.

Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?

Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10

Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.

Magic Millions 2yo classic

And from the same bookmaker, here's the market movements for the Magic Millions 2-year-old race at the Gold Coast, Australia:

Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.

Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.

“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.

“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.

“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”

Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.

“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.

“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”

There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.

MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00

Love Conquers All is Magic Millions favourite

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia with the latest market movements for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, Sydney, Australia, this weekend:

The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.

“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.

“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”

Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.

“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.

MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00

How we work our bankroll

Friday guest tipping is up and running again, so I thought it might be worth a quick refresher about how we manage our bankroll, particularly if you want to follow us.

We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:

* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.

* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.

* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.

Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.

Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.

Free Friday Guest Tipster is Neal Wilkins

It was minus 5 degrees from where Neal Wilkins gave me a call earlier this week.

Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.

For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.

Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.

Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.

Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.

Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.

As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.

We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)

And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.

Good luck!

* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.

Mike Phelan seems set to take over at Burnley FC

When the market was first opened by Victor Chandler on Tuesday, I said it would be nice to have some inside information.

Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.

Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:

Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.

Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”

Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1

Free tips from Neal Wilkins this Friday

This Friday we start up our "Friday Guest Tipster" column again. Last year, guest tipsters helped build our bankroll with a conservative strategy by 300%.

Let's hope we can do that in 2010.

Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.

He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.

Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.

Australian contender title favourite is Kariz Kariuki

For non-Australian readers, this is a reality boxing show aired on pay television. Boxers were in a knockout-style competition and the final will be aired live on Monday night. The winner gets some money and a pro bout.

While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:

Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.

“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.

“He has to start favourite on that alone.”

Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.

“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.

“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”

AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70

Mike Phelan and Steve Coppell favourites for Burnley job

I wish I had some inside information, but this new market will be of interest to English football fans:
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.

Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”

Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1

Betting in the run

Traditionally, we've been taught to bet before the contest begins.

Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.

Is it worth it?

The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.

Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.

Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.

It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.

Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.

In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.

Betting tip: Know your opposition

How often do you see odds posted as a result of media hype and/or parochial influence.

For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.

You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.

But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.

Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.

This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.

Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?

Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.

Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.

Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.

In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.

Was Soderling a good bet against Federer?

Well done to anyone who took the $3.65 on offer for Robin Soderling to beat Roger Federer in Abu Dhabi.

But I still question whether it was a good bet.

Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.

But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).

You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."

But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.

Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.

Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.

Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.

If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html

New Year's Resolutions

We don't usually follow the crowd, but it's probably timely to let you know what Aussiepunt has in store for 2010:

1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.

2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.

3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.

4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.

5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.

6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.

7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.

8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.

With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!

Computer withdrawal symptoms

It's been a long time since I've been without computer access for a week, and I'm getting severe withdrawals.

Apologies to regular readers of this blog for not updating over the past week, but I'll be back on the air in the new year, at which time we'll have plenty of Winter Olympics tips, soccer, horse racing, the list goes on ... if they compete and there's odds on it, we'll be talking about it.

Until then, happy new year to all.

Winter Olympics 2010 downhill form guide

I've managed to get a bit of a Christmas present from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com. I can't get all the detailed form information, but the synopsis might help when you're trying to pick winners from the World Cup races happening fairly much each weekend leading up to the Vancouver Games.

And the event is the Men's Downhill, which kicks off on the opening day of competition at the Winter Olympics.

The Downhill is pure speed, a race against the clock to the bottom of a defined course.

In many ways, it is the most raw of all Winter Olympic events, at least those on skis.

It is also one of the most dangerous as skiers clock massive speeds. The danger is no better typified by the horrific crash which left Swiss skier Daniel Albrecht in a coma for three weeks with brain and lung injuries.

Albrecht’s story also typifies the courage of these athletes, for he not only survived, but he has vowed to return to the sport, perhaps in 2011.

In an effort to push the limits of their potential, most skiers have crashed out at some point. Already this season, world champion John Kucera has been eliminated from the Winter Olympics after breaking his leg. It's a big blow to the competition, but an even bigger blow to the Canadians who would have ranked him as one of their Gold Medal hopes.

This, however, is the Winter Olympics. All will be doing what they can to win a medal, ultimately gold.

Hundredths of a second can regularly determine placings in Downhill, as it can for most alpine events. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for the better skiers to put in a conservative first run. Rather, they’ll likely be giving it their all from the outset.

When it comes to picking a winner, that makes any selection a bit of a lottery. However, we’ll look for performance indicators which improve our chances and push the percentages in our favour.

The FIS will release its final rankings on January 18, which will allow us to assess the final field. But, based on 2009 rankings and performances in World Cup, European Cup and other FIS races, we’ll have an early look at the top chances.

Not only will that give us a good indication of who might figure in the medals in Vancouver, it will give us a clear view of who to keep an eye on in the two months leading up to the premier event as skiers vie for world champion status.

Manuel Osborne-Paradis (Canada)

Keep an eye on this man – very closely. He’s a Downhill specialist with some interest in the Super G. Ranked 5th in the world, the Canadian speedster will not only have local screaming and cow bells on his side, he’ll have plenty of local knowledge. As a member of Whistler Mountain Ski Club, the 25-year-old will have an appreciation of the course like no other competitor, with an ability to match. Watch the market but we’ll be tipping him early as one of the favourites to win the event. And with Kucera out, the expectation grows even more.

Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)

The Norwegian turns 27 in December and is in the prime of his career, at the beginning of 2009 crowned overall alpine world champion. He also tops the rankings in Super-G and will no doubt be a threat at the Vancouver Olympics in that discipline, the downhill and the giant slalom. He’s one of the few skiiers in with a realistic chance of multiple medals in the alpine events.

Michael Walchhofer (Austria)

At 34, Walchhofer is one of the veterans of the strong Austrian team, but he is also one of the fastest. In peak condition, this man is true speed and will no doubt be right in the hunt when it comes medal time in the Downhill and Super-G events. Walchhofer is ranked first in the world in Downhill and has some consistent performances. Ignore the 12th place at the World Championships. But we do need to be mindful that his last World Cup victory was in December 2008. If you want a good sighter in Vancouver, this is one of your leading men.

Carlo Janka (Switzerland)

At 23, Janka is the golden boy of the Swiss team and will likely compete in all disciplines. At the World Championships in France in February, he placed first in the Giant Slalom, finishing 0.7 seconds ahead of his nearest rival. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s a sport where hundredths of a second can separate the top few, as happened with the Downhill at the same event where Janka finished third, 0.17 behind the gold medal winner. Already a proven big-race performer and likely only to improve when it comes to February, expect him to be well in the mix in the Downhill event. Ignore some ordinary late-season World Cup finishes to focus on current form, a third at the World Championships and a second in Canada in November 2008.

Didier Cuche (Switzerland)

This guy is likely to start one of the three top favourites for the Downhill and rightly so. At 35, Cuche is a veteran of the sport, but is still going strong as the world’s third ranked all-round alpine skiier. Cuche was in 2007 and 2008 ranked the world’s top Downhill skiier and is unlikely to be outside the top 5 when competitors head through the gates for their gold medal run. It won’t take much for him to recapture form which made him one of the most feared competitors on the planet. His proven record under pressure make him one of the most solid bets of the alpine racing agenda, albeit no certainty to pick up the gold. And his early 2010 form has been absolutely fantastic, of the highest order in the sport. He'll probably be a 3-star pick in our book.

Werner Heel (Italy)

The 27-year-old Italian speedster will likely start one of the favourites for the Super-G. His grace and strength is of the highest ilk and he’s beaten all-comers. Despite being without a World Cup win in the Downhill, he could find himself on the podium if it all comes together for him in Vancouver. He will, however, have to make up a couple of seconds on the quality field, which he might have done during off-season training. Heel is definitely one to follow in the World Cup events before the Olympics.

Klaus Kroell (Austria)

Consistent top 10 finishes in World Cup Downhill competitions see him ranked second in the world for the event. Kroell’s two wins early this year on the World Cup circuit – one in Downhill and the other in Super G – showed that he is a skiier now to be respected. At 29, he is entering his prime at the right time for the Olympics and might be one of the Austrians to shine in Vancouver. We’ll have an eye on his lead-up performances to see how he’s tracking. One of the problems facing all Austrian skiiers is selection, but his timely form might see him nudging for a medal.

Didier Defago (Switzerland)

Defago has an overall world ranking of 6th, having broken into the top 10 off the back of solid performances in two disciplines – the Downhill and Super-G in 2009. Speed is the essence for the all-rounder. At 32, it is remarkable that the Swiss skiier was only last year able to attain a career-high ranking after almost 14 years on the world circuit. This is likely to be his last Olympics and his form indicates he could spring an upset – or at least a medal. He’ll certainly be hungry enough, and with eight Olympic starts already, and 191 World Cup appearances, he might prove to be one of the great tales of the Vancouver Games. Late-season form in March was ordinary, but don’t overlook back-to-back World Cup victories in January – the only skier on the circuit to achieve the feat.

Romed Baumann (Austria)

We’ve included Baumann in the Downhill form guide purely because of his age. At 23, he is better performed in Super Combined and Giant Slalom. But with consistent top 20 finishes in the Downhill, it is worth keeping an eye on his form leading up to the Olympics.

Christof Innerhofer (Italy)

Innerhofer is an accomplished all-rounder and Italy’s best chance of a medal. He carries plenty of speed in the Downhill, and will no doubt pressure the leaders in other events as well. At 25, and in comparison to many of his opponents, Innerhofer is relatively inexperienced with only 50+ World Cup starts and in his first Olympics. But he is a rising star and this might be his opportunity to put his mark firmly on the international scene. Being young and fast, his biggest let-down might be volatility. But at an Olympics, going for broke is a good thing. An example is in December 2008 when Innerhofer had two disastrous Downhill finishes in Beaver Creek and Val Gardena-Groeden, before blitzing the slopes in front of his home Bormio crowd to take home a World Cup victory. He’s one to keep on the radar.

Peter Fill (Italy)

Fill is ranked one position above Innerhofer in the overall world standings, and performances indicate they are very close in their ability to medal. Fill is much more experienced than his countryman, and already has a Winter Olympics under his belt which could serve him well in Vancouver. But it’s difficult to see him able to put in the explosive speed required to hit the Downhill podium.

Erik Guay (Canada)

Guay is built for speed, and speed alone. There’ll be none of that twisting and turning nonsense for one of Canada’s great medal hopes. Rest assured, when he’s flying down the slopes, the cow bells will be ringing at their absolute loudest. At 28, he’s had one Olympc start in 2006, and one World Cup victory since. He’s ranked 6th in the world in Downhill. Expect a performance of great heart in front of his home crowd.

Bode Miller (USA)

Along with Hermann Maier, Miller is by far the greatest skiier of recent times. If he overcomes injuries to race, he’ll show versatility like no other on the American team. Miller was world champion by a long way in 2005 and 2008, and clearly in the top 4 since 2002. If fit, he’s a threat in any of the Alpine disciplines. With two silver medals at the 2002 Games, he’d love to add gold to the list, particularly in the twilight of his career. Miller, if there are any doubters about his extraordinary career at elite level, has 31 World Cup victories to his name. He also has 67 podium finishes. He is truly an amazing athlete. We’ll be monitoring his fitness leading up to Vancouver. It could have a huge bearing on who starts favourite for each of the alpine events.

Benjamin Raich (Austria)

Raich might be regarded one of the best all-round skiers in the world, but it would be unlikely for him to medal in the Downhill, probably his weakest discipline. It is most likely, as happened in the World Championships, that he will skip the event to focus on his strongest events. But a great skier is a great skier and it would be reminisce of us not to keep an eye on his World Cup performances in the next couple of months.

Others to watch:

Hans Olssen (Sweden)

The 25-year-old Swede is rising fast in the world Downhill rankings. In his last two starts, he finished less than 6 seconds behind the leader in his home country, at Are, in March, to finish 3rd, and fourth in Norway four days previously. His off-season preparation will determine whether he’s worth seriously watching leading up to the Olympics.

Ambrosi Hoffmann (Switzerland)

The 32-year-old builder knows what it’s like to win a medal, having picked up the bronze in Super-G at the 2006 Games. He trains for speed and with a third and fourth in consecutive World Cup starts in January, is one worth keeping an eye on. He will be one of the more experienced competitors in the field with more than 190 World Cup starts.

Marco Buechel (Liechtenstein)

If Marco Buechel decides to give the Olympics one final tilt, he will almost certainly be one of the oldest competitors in the field. That will make him one of the most experienced, and having been ranked second in the world in Downhill in 2007, and fourth in 2006, he must be respected. He was fourth in this year’s world championships in the Downhill, his best performance for the season. But that just proves that he can be a big-time competitor and might just find himself on the podium if all comes together in Vancouver.

Marco Sullivan (USA)

Sullivan’s late-season form in 2009 was far from awe-inspiring, but he’s proven he can mix it with the best, having finished third in Wengen, Switzerland, in a World Cup Downhill event, and fourth in Italy in December 2008. He’s won FIS races but will need to be at his absolute best to upset more favoured athletes.

Andrej Jerman (Slovenia)

“Jerry”, as he’s known on the circuit, is 31 and has finished on the World Cup podium three times. His best 2009 finish was 4th in a World Cup event in Norway in January. He’s unlikely to be in the medals but will be worth watching in lead-up events.

Adrien Theaux (France)

Theaux is another rising star. At 25, he’s yet to finish on the podium in a world-class event, but form would suggest his first is not far away. It’s unlikely to be at the Olympics, but a couple of top 10 finishes on the circuit towards the end of last season make him worth watching.

Robbie Dixon (Canada)

Dixon is another local hope and has knowledge of the slopes, being based at the Whistler Mountain Ski Club. His form might not be much to write home about, but with a 5th and 7th in Norway against a world class field, the 24-year-old might just be on the rise at the right time. Those two performances saw him sneak into the world’s top 20 rankings for the event for the first time.

Congratulations Miss Gibraltar

I thought I'd share one of the more unusual press releases I've received from bookmakers recently. Victor Chandler moved to Gibraltar, so why not rally his own!

And if anybody took the 250-1, can you let me know?

Victor Chandler offered his congratulations to newly crowned Miss World, Kaiane Aldorino.

The Gibraltar based bookmaker, who changed the online gaming industry forever when he moved from London to Gibraltar 10 years ago, said that the winner had been subject to a large number of bets from local residents.

Victor Chandler, Chairman, commented “The rules only recently changed to allow Gibraltar residents to bet with me, but a lot of local residents are glad they did!

Kaiane was initially a 250/1 outsider, and was still rated 14/1 sixth favourite on Friday, and whilst no residents were on at 250/1 many backed Kaiane at 14/1, and I am genuinely pleased to pay them all.

I am thrilled both for Kaiane and for the whole of Gibraltar.”

Hong Kong sprint horse racing

I've got some money sitting on Scenic Blast. We'll see how she goes!

This comes from Sportingbet:

All Silent has been backed into outright favourite for the Hong Kong Sprint after a string of big bets were placed on the Graeme Begg trained gelding at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said All Silent had been backed from $5.50 to $4.60 this week and he is now a clear favourite ahead of Sacred Kingdom at $5.00.

“All Silent has clearly been the best backed horse this week with bets of $10,000, $5000 and $4000 struck in the past 24 hours,” Sullivan said.

“His form before leaving Australia was dominant and punters are backing him to reproduce it in Hong Kong which would see him take a power of beating.”

Sullivan said there had also been good support for West Australian galloper Scenic Blast while Apache Cat had been a little easy.

“Scenic Blast has been backed from $7.00 to $6.00 this week as well with one bet of $10,000 struck on him as well,” he said.

“Apache Cat has been $8.00 out to $9.50 at this stage but he does have a cult following and I would expect to see support come for him before the race.”

All Silent is also an even money favourite in Sportingbet’s best of the Aussies market ahead of Scenic Blast at $3.00 and Apache Cat at $3.70.

“All Silent has been the only one punters have wanted in that market and he has also been very well supported in the head to heads against the other two where is obviously a clear favourite,” Sullivan said.


HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 4.60
Sacred Kingdom 5.00
Scenic Blast 6.00
Apache Cat 9.50
California Flag 10.00
Cannonball 17.00
Total Gallery 18.00
Inspiration 18.00
Laurel Guerreiro 18.00
War Artist 19.00
Borderlescott 26.00
Green Birdie 34.00
One World 41.00
Joy And Fun 51.00

Free sports betting strategy and winning advice

Here's a free copy this sports pick wagering and betting system from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com.

Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.

It's worth a read:

Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.

Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.

The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.

Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.

2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.

So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.

The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.

Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.

As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".

For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.

In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!

5 Stars:

If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.

4 Stars:

If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!

3 Stars:

If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.

Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.

2 Stars:

If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.

1 Star:

These are competitors we recommend you avoid.

Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.

Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.

Good luck, and bring on the Games!

Why are England's World Cup soccer odds so short ?

I can't say I totally understand the logic behind the way the market has panned out for the World Cup in South Africa 2010.

England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.

But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.

And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.

England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.

Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.

Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus

Who will win the Winter Olympics figure skating ?

This is a free sample form guide leading up to the Winter Olympics. It comes from the member site, www.winterolympicsformguide.com, and is a great look at who is in real contention for a medal in Vancouver.

Men's Figure Skating (Winter Olympics 2010) form guide:

The men's event is not quite as clear cut as the women's, but like all of the ice skating events, there are stand-out performers.

And we know that realistically, of the 30 skaters, not all of them have the high level of skill which will be required to pick up a medal. So, here we'll focus on those who do have a chance, look at their recent performances, and hone in on which events will provide us key indicators of form leading up the Games.

The program will kick off on Day 5 of the Olympics with the short program, followed by the main event long program on February 18 (day 7). Skaters who can land the most difficult tricks with the highest elegance and grace will be judged the winner in what seems on the surface to be a complex system.

Many might think the men's event will be a two-man race between the first American in 13 years to be crowned world champion Evan Lysacek and comeback king Evgeni Plushenko from Russia (I can hear the Rocky theme playing already), but there are others in the hunt, such as local hero Patrick Chan.

Let's take a little look at it in perspective. Lysacek achieved his world title with a score of 242.23. Plushenko's first and only performance in his comeback so far on October 24 yielded him a score of 240.65 after missing a landing in the short program. That's how close things are set to be. And don't forget Japanese skater Nobunari Oda who started his 2009/10 Grand Prix season campaign with a 242.53 score in the Trophee Eric Bompard in France.

Keep in mind the game of wits being played in the lead-up to the Games. Normally, all the top skaters would compete in all events of the Grand Prix. But note that on no occasion have the top 3 come head to head. It seems this is a game of tactics as much as it is a game of skill.

Brace yourselves, this will be terrific. It's far too early to make a call yet, but let's make a bold early prediction that the Canadian will start favourite, followed by the Russian and the American, with the Japanese pushing for a medal.

Evan Lysacek (USA)
It's been a long time since the United States figured highly in the men's division, and 13 years since they had a world champion. That was until Lysacek hit the scene and was last year crowned the world's best. Yet, while he was the most consistent skater and managed to put all his components together when it counted, in the World Championships, he was not as dominant as his female equal. He placed 2nd in the Four Continents and three 3rds in Grand Prix events before finishing strongly with victory in the worlds and World Team Trophy in Tokyo.

Form:
November 12: Grand Prix Net Skate America, 1st
October 29: Grand Prix Cup of China, 2nd
March 29: World Figure Skating Championships, 1st
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 2nd
January 25: US Figure Skating Championships, 3rd
November 2, 2008: Skate Canada International, 3rd
October 26, 2008: Skate America, 3rd

Patrick Chan (Canada)
When Chan steps onto the rink to perform his short program in February, he will be 19 years and 48 days old, carrying the hopes of the local Canadian crowd with every jump, spin, and landing. But he's been doing it on the senior circuit now for three years and has some of the best scores in the world, including a 249.19 which won him the Four Continents event where he beat Lysacek by 7.25 points. A leg injury unfortunately prevented him from competing in the Rostelecom Cup in October against Plushenko. And he has only recently returned to the ice with a less-than-Chan-like performance. As fitness returns, expect him to shine.

Form:
November 19: Skate Canada International, 6th
March 29: World Figure Skating Championships, 2nd
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 1st
January 18: Canadian Figure Skating Championships, 1st
December 14, 2008: Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final, 5th
November 16, 2008: Trophee Eric Bompard, 1st
November 2, 2008: Skate Canada International, 1st

Evgeni Plushenko (Russia)
The heads of international skaters would have secretly hung low when they heard the Turin Olympic champion Plushenko was planning a return. Still only 26, he had planned to retire from the sport as a young man to follow professional ambition. But on October 24, he emerged for his long program at the Rostelecom Cup, a Grand Prix event. Worse news for his opponents was that he was able to stick a quadruple-triple toeloop combination, triple axel, triple axel-double toeloop, triple loop, flip, double axel and triple lutz. Sounds fancy, and it is, rating among the highest point range when it comes to degree of difficulty. Even worse, he plans to add another quad to his program later in the season. With a score of 240.65, he blitzed the rest of the field. He won't be anywhere to be seen on world rankings, but that counts for nothing when it comes to winning a gold medal. It might have been a shock for some to see him return to international competitive skating, but he'll be a white hot favourite when it comes time to hit the ice in February.

Form:
October 24: ISU Grand Prix, Rostelecom Cup: 1st

Nobunari Oda (Japan)
Oda might be considered to be the bad boy of international ice skating, having gone through a Japanese Skating Federation ban after a drink driving arrest in 2007. He has also had a questionable state of mind, pulling out of the Japanese Championships late 2007 due to "mental stress". But, now at 22 years of age, that seems to be behind him, last season winning the NHK Trophy and two other events which do not count towards Grand Prix final calculation. Despite not qualifying for the Grand Prix Final, he did register a 7th at the World Championships and 4th at the Four Continents amid the world's best company. He proved that this season he's ready to take the extra step by winning the first major event of the season, the Trophee Eric Bompard event in France. If nothing else, Oda has a colourful heritage - he's the 17th direct descendant of a daimyo during Japan's Sengoku period. But perhaps some of the rebel remains, having been known to do exhibition routines to Motley Crew and Red Hot Chili Peppers numbers. Whether he can compete to the standard of Chan and company remains to be seen, but two wins on the Grand Prix circuit, one of them against Lysacek, is a promising start.

Form:
October 29: Grand Prix Cup of China, 1st
October 18: Trophee Eric Bompard 1st
March 29: World Championships, 7th
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 4th
November 30, 2008: NHK Trophy, 1st
October 17, 2008: Karl Schafer Memorial, 1st
September 28, 2008: Nebelhorn Trophy, 1st

Thomas Verner (Czech Republic)
At 23, the Czech is in his prime as a skater, but it is unlikely he'll be able to push for gold at the Olympics. A repeat of his best performance, at the 2008 Europeans, could see him push for a medal, but he seems a couple of tricks short of making a true impact. Now for the positives. With a 4th in both the Worlds and Grand Prix Final, it would seem logical to suggest he's close to a podium finish. At last year's Europeans, he skated his best short program ever and looked well placed to medal, but made mistakes in the long program. He finished 6th. He has, however, started this season on a positive note, second in the Trophee Eric Bompard Grand Prix event, and winner of the Ice Challenge where he was clearly the highest-credentialled skater.

Form
November 12: Skate America, 5th
November 1: Ice Challenge, Austria, 1st
October 18: Trophee Eric Bompard, 2nd
March 29: World Championships, 4th
January 25: European Championships, 6th
December 14, 2008: Grand Prix Final, 4th
November 22, 2008: Cup of Russia, 2nd
November 9, 2008: Cup of China, 3rd
October 17, 2008: Karl Schafer Memorial, 3rd
September 28, 2008: Nebelhorn Trophy, 4th

Brian Joubert (France)
The 2007 World Champion has the program and the scores to match it with the best if he can reproduce his form of nearly three years ago. He has some of the best jumps in the business and consistently lands quads, something which will be required to medal at the Olympics. Despite finishing 4th at Eric Bompard in October behind other Vancouver hopefuls, at his absolute best, he is the best chance to upset the favourites - as he showed with his bronze medal at the 2009 Worlds, and his gold at the Europeans against elite competition. If there is to be someone to create an upset in the field, Joubert is likely to be the one, but recent form suggests he is not the same skater of old.

Form
November 8: NHK Trophy, Japan, 1st
October 18: Trophee Eric Bompard, 4th
March 29: World Championships, 3rd
January 25: European Championships, 1st
November 16, 2008: Trophee Eric Bompard, 4th
November 22, 2008: Cup of Russia, 1st

Takahiko Kozuka (Japan)
Kozuka is a rising star of the skating rink. He turns 21 on the second last day of the Games, February 27, and will be hoping to celebrate in style with an unexpected medal. To do so, one would think he'll need to improve on his current personal best by at least 10-15 points which is a huge leap in class at this level. But it's difficult to ignore his 2009 results, most notably Skate America, an event he won, beating Evan Lysacek. Given that he is a young figure skater on the rise, it will be worth keeping an eye on his 2010 season results. It is also worth heeding his 2009 season results which, for a skater of his age, were outstanding. They included the World Cup victory at Skate America and three other podium finishes. He started this season with a second in the Cup of Russia. For trivia buffs, his father skated in the 1968 Olympics.

Form
November 8: NHK Trophy, Japan, 7th
October 25: Cup of Russia, 2nd
March 29: World Championships, 6th
February 8: Four Continents Championships, 3rd
December 14, 2008: Grand Prix Final, 2nd
November 16, 2008: Trophee Eric Bompard, 2nd
October 26, 2008: Skate America, 1st

Others to watch

Kevin Van der Perren (Belgium)
The 27-year-old last season continued to perform personal bests, which enabled him to pick up a bronze medal at the Europeans. But he is still at least 20 points behind the best skaters of the competition. He finished 14th in the Worlds and, despite being six-time Belgian national champion and international standard skater, is unlikely to contest the medals.

Artem Borodulin (Russia)
If he skates, Borodulin will be one of the youngest skaters in the competition. At just 20, he is another fast on the rise, consistently appearing on the podium at Junior Grand Prix events. He demanded notice in September when he finished with a bronze medal in elite competition at the Cup of Russia. His best scores, however, are some distance behind those which will be required to medal in Vancouver.

Johnny Weir (USA)
It would be negligent to totally discount the three-time US National champion totally from contention, but it would be unlikely for him to be standing on the podium at the Vancouver presentation ceremony. The 25-year-old had his best international season in 2008 when he finished with bronze medals at both the Worlds and the Grand Prix Final. While his flamboyance is adored by many who follow figure skating (he owns a couple of chihuahuas, does tremendous amounts of work for charity, and has a hand in fashion design), his scores will likely need to lift beyond his personal best to medal. Based on 2009 performances, however, it is possible. He was second in both the NHK Trophy and Skate America last season and this year finished 4th at the Cup of Russia, his only skate for this season's campaign.

Samuel Contesti (Italy)
Despite being 26, the Italian is a figure skater on the rise, and one who could spring an upset in Vancouver. He finished 5th at the Worlds with a personal best ICU score of 226.97 which is about 10 points below what we can expect medalists to achieve at the Games. He also finished 2nd at the European Championships. He started this season with a 4th place finish at the Cup of China. He's one whose form needs to be watched closely in other events leading up to the Games.

Denis Ten (Kazakhstan)
And we thought 20 was young. This guy will be 18 when he hits the ice in Vancouver. He is the first Kazakh skater to win an ICU competition. He is a native Russian speaker, but of partial Korean descent. His personal best scores are some distance from those who will be contesting the medals, but he is a youngster on the rise and well worth watching. Last year, he finished 8th in the Worlds and 9th at the Four Continents.

Brandon Mroz (USA)
It remains to be seen whether the 19-year-old American will get a favourable nod from the selectors to skate. But he is another of the juniors making waves in senior ranks, finishing 9th at the Worlds and 8th at the Four Continents last year, along with a 5th in the Trophee Eric Bompard and 7th at Skate Canada. He also finished 2nd at the US Championships which will do him no harm.

Jeremy Abbott (USA)
With skaters of class ranked above him in the US, Abbott was given a chance to shine at Skate Canada, and took it. He won the event. Coupled with the fact that three of the most dominant figure skaters in the world absent and the other recovering from injury, along with results in other events, it would be fair to suggest the Olympic task is beyond him. But it is the Olympics, where anything can happen.