Monday, January 4, 2010

Betting tip: Know your opposition

How often do you see odds posted as a result of media hype and/or parochial influence.

For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.

You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.

But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.

Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.

This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.

Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?

Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.

Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.

Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.

In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.

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