Free sports betting strategy and winning advice

Here's a free copy this sports pick wagering and betting system from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com.

Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.

It's worth a read:

Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.

Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.

The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.

Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.

2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.

So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.

The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.

Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.

As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".

For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.

In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!

5 Stars:

If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.

4 Stars:

If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!

3 Stars:

If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.

Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.

2 Stars:

If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.

Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.

1 Star:

These are competitors we recommend you avoid.

Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.

Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.

Good luck, and bring on the Games!