... And the mud-slinging hasn't even started yet!
PUNTERS TURN TO COALITION AS POLLS STING LABOR
The Coalition’s odds for a shock election victory have been slashed from $3.40 to $3.00 at Sportingbet Australia after they hit the front in the two party preferred for the first time since the 2007 election.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been a series of bets placed on the Coalition at $3.40 and $3.20 since the poll and he expected the money to keep coming.
“Labor are still clear favourites at $1.36 but I can’t see punters rushing to back them following this poll,” Sullivan said.
“All the money has been for the Coalition this morning with punters thinking the $3.40 looked attractive given they were ahead in the poll.
“While this is probably a rogue poll, it would still be of concern to Kevin Rudd and punters will abandon him until he starts turning things around.”
Sullivan said Tony Abbott would need to convert many of those disillusioned with Rudd the if Coalition was to challenge for favouritism.
“Tony Abbott at least has clear positions on issues, in contrast to some of his predecessors and that makes him a more dangerous opponent for Rudd,” he said.
“The perception of him as a man of action is sure to help at this time too when many are complaining that the Prime Minister is the complete opposite.
“The fact the Coalition grabbed only three of the eight points Labor lost is a concern though and until he can turn those undecided voters to the Coalition, he will remain the outsider.”
FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.36
Coalition 3.00
Showing posts with label politics betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics betting. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
South Australian election update
The bookies are all over this election stuff. Not much more I can say about it really:
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
Tasmanian election neck and neck
For those following the Tasmanian election, punters have it a tight battle. In such a situation, an upset is usually on the cards - and a likely change of government.
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
South Australian election
The power of incumbency can never be under-estimated:
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Kevin Rudd to lose leadership
Kevin Rudd might be stumbling a little more than he expects at the polls, but it's not enough to get carried away with.
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
Friday, February 12, 2010
Tasmanian election on a knife edge
Usually, punters have a fairly good idea of how an election might pan out. The Tasmanian state election is an exception. If the odds are any indication, it could be a cliffhanger.
LABOR SLIGHT FAVOURITE BUT PHOTO FINISH EXPECTED
Labor has been posted as a slight favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to be returned in Tasmania after Premier David Bartlett called a state election for March 20.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Labor were in real danger of losing government but retained favouritism at this stage.
“Labor are $1.80 favourites but I wouldn’t be surprised to see support come from punters for the Liberals here,” Sullivan said.
“The Liberals are $2.00 outsiders but that could well change before March 20.
“The Greens will also be a major factor here in Tasmania again and could potentially hold the balance of power.”
Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the party that provides the Premier so any deal with the Greens could be very influential.
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.80
Liberal 2.00
LABOR SLIGHT FAVOURITE BUT PHOTO FINISH EXPECTED
Labor has been posted as a slight favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to be returned in Tasmania after Premier David Bartlett called a state election for March 20.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Labor were in real danger of losing government but retained favouritism at this stage.
“Labor are $1.80 favourites but I wouldn’t be surprised to see support come from punters for the Liberals here,” Sullivan said.
“The Liberals are $2.00 outsiders but that could well change before March 20.
“The Greens will also be a major factor here in Tasmania again and could potentially hold the balance of power.”
Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the party that provides the Premier so any deal with the Greens could be very influential.
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.80
Liberal 2.00
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Rudd in trouble
Punters are usually very good when it comes to tipping elections. If that's the case, we are starting to see the slide of the government. Albeit still at long odds, maybe Rudd is a little on the nose.
I won't be joining those who consider Abbott to be a good bet, though.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet Australia:
PUNTERS SAY RUDD GOVERNMENT IN FOR A FIGHT
Punters have moved with today’s Newspoll, getting behind the opposition of Tony Abbott as the figures show this parliamentary season will be no cakewalk for the Rudd Government.
The Opposition have shortened from $4.25 into $4.00 in Sportingbet Australia’s federal election market following today’s polling which shows the Coalition edging ahead in the primary vote 41-40.
While Kevin Rudd’s Government retains an election-winning lead of four points in two-party preferred, their slide from a ten-point lead has seen them drift in betting from $1.20 out to $1.25.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Tony Abbott’s pugilistic style seems to have cut through on complex issues like emissions trading, where the Government is having trouble articulating its policies.
“In boxing, leading with your chin is always a dangerous strategy, but Tony Abbott has made a career out of it – and punters get it,” said Mr Sullivan.
“This is the first time since the 2007 election when we have been taking more bets on the Coalition than the Government.
“In this session of parliament I think we’ll see the government on the back foot for the first time in three years and that could well see the Coalition’s odds trim up further.”
AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor $1.25
Coalition $4.00
I won't be joining those who consider Abbott to be a good bet, though.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet Australia:
PUNTERS SAY RUDD GOVERNMENT IN FOR A FIGHT
Punters have moved with today’s Newspoll, getting behind the opposition of Tony Abbott as the figures show this parliamentary season will be no cakewalk for the Rudd Government.
The Opposition have shortened from $4.25 into $4.00 in Sportingbet Australia’s federal election market following today’s polling which shows the Coalition edging ahead in the primary vote 41-40.
While Kevin Rudd’s Government retains an election-winning lead of four points in two-party preferred, their slide from a ten-point lead has seen them drift in betting from $1.20 out to $1.25.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Tony Abbott’s pugilistic style seems to have cut through on complex issues like emissions trading, where the Government is having trouble articulating its policies.
“In boxing, leading with your chin is always a dangerous strategy, but Tony Abbott has made a career out of it – and punters get it,” said Mr Sullivan.
“This is the first time since the 2007 election when we have been taking more bets on the Coalition than the Government.
“In this session of parliament I think we’ll see the government on the back foot for the first time in three years and that could well see the Coalition’s odds trim up further.”
AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor $1.25
Coalition $4.00
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