Most tipping sites brag about their wins. Rarely do they mention their losses. It's bad for business.
Given that I rely on my own tips and any inside information I can get from the industry, I feel I am in a position to bite the bullet, take the plunge, run the gauntlet, buck the trend, and all those other cliches I've heard while listening to ABC Grandstand at the weekend.
Take this as an apology, a confession if you like. For, as I packed up the family for a weekend away, I rushed through a few tips - genuine tips; tips I backed myself before putting my foot on the accelerator and spending time with the wife and children.
There were 12 of them altogether. Two were successful. Yes, as embarrassing as it is to admit it, I've let everybody down - and seemingly I hexed all whose name was uttered in tipsterville.
Daniel Kerr did a hamstring when he was well ahead of trio opponents in the fantasy challenge; Reimers twisted an ankle in similar circumstances; Matthew Boyd missed a stack of the game with an injury.
To them, I apologise. To you, I apologise. To myself, well, it's back on the horse, so to speak.
A quick poll shows we're still ahead over three weeks of fantasy tips, so we'll shelve this one as a lost cause and keep cracking the whip.
Until then, good luck and happy punting.
Showing posts with label betting strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting strategy. Show all posts
Monday, April 19, 2010
Friday, January 22, 2010
Guest tipster Friday - free tips
It's Friday again, and although I'm a bit late in the day, we've gotten a hold of some free tips from TAB sportsbet in New South Wales.
The racing tips usually go fairly well and despite a bad week last week, we've scanned over the latest offering and figure they're okay.
The soccer tips are usually only for Australian soccer and the bloke tips more draws than I've ever seen. I saw a theory on a UK betting site which insisted betting all up combinations on the draw in every game was a profitable exercise. Perhaps that's the same theory this tipster works on.
Regardless, for international readers who are following the Friday guest tips, most Australian agencies will take bets on these tips.
They come from racing follower Andrew Bensley:
The first kicks off at the Harness Racing tonight. All races are quoted in Sydney time:
Harness
Friday 22nd January
Harold Park Race 5 - 9:00pm
No.3 - CLONTARF LADY
Gallops
Saturday 23rd January
Rosehill Race 5 - 3:50pm
No.9 - CHANCE BYE
Greyhounds
Saturday 23rd January
Wentworth Park Race 1 - 7:27pm
No.7 - WINSOME JOE
Our balance remains at $100 so we'll whack 10% of the stack on each race ... no half measures. All will be to come first past the post.
Good luck!
The racing tips usually go fairly well and despite a bad week last week, we've scanned over the latest offering and figure they're okay.
The soccer tips are usually only for Australian soccer and the bloke tips more draws than I've ever seen. I saw a theory on a UK betting site which insisted betting all up combinations on the draw in every game was a profitable exercise. Perhaps that's the same theory this tipster works on.
Regardless, for international readers who are following the Friday guest tips, most Australian agencies will take bets on these tips.
They come from racing follower Andrew Bensley:
The first kicks off at the Harness Racing tonight. All races are quoted in Sydney time:
Harness
Friday 22nd January
Harold Park Race 5 - 9:00pm
No.3 - CLONTARF LADY
Gallops
Saturday 23rd January
Rosehill Race 5 - 3:50pm
No.9 - CHANCE BYE
Greyhounds
Saturday 23rd January
Wentworth Park Race 1 - 7:27pm
No.7 - WINSOME JOE
Our balance remains at $100 so we'll whack 10% of the stack on each race ... no half measures. All will be to come first past the post.
Good luck!
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Australian Open tennis start list
There is no doubt that Roger Federer and Raphael Nadal will start favourites for the Australian Open.
It's interesting to see that Juan Martin Del Potro is currently nestled between the two in terms of favouritism stakes.
Granted, it's always hard to go past a champion and you'll be getting better than even money on Federer. The media are much more quiet than they were last year when the Fed's pre-event results were just as poor as they are this year.
I guess they're not quite as keen to have mud on their face in case he again finishes the year as the world's top-ranked player.
But let's look at form. Del Potro is fresh from a big win but hasn't played the traditional warm up events. That makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity and difficult to back.
Slide down the list to Nikolay Davydenko. He's the form player, coming from his masters win late last year and his win in last week's warm up event, where he came back from a bagel down in the first set to defeat Raffa.
It's always difficult to bet on Davydenko. In the big money events, he's likely to come out and surprise everyone, yet he's equally able to "throw" - whether intentional or not - his first round match. But at 10/1, he's worth a small investment.
The other one is Robin Soderling. The Swede broke a 12-match losing streak against Federer in Abu Dhabi and has beaten Nadal two out of their last three encounters. He's not yet at the point where he'll consistently win Grand Slams and word is he's not overly liked by the players. But he is erratically capable of anything.
At 25/1, Soderling is a tall man with a big serve and he likes the Melbourne surface. At the odds, he's well worth an investment.
In the women's event, Kim Clijsters (3/1) looks hard to beat, especially if Justine Henin is ruled out. It's not smart to totally eliminate the Williams sisters, particularly Serena who as world number 1 will start favourite to win the event.
But Clijsters is the form player - looking fit and happy.
For those looking for an outsider, Elena Dementieva fires up at 14/1. There was a time last year when she strung together more than 10 games on the trot and was the world's form player, until she fell heavily to American giant killer Melanie Oudin.
It's interesting to see that Juan Martin Del Potro is currently nestled between the two in terms of favouritism stakes.
Granted, it's always hard to go past a champion and you'll be getting better than even money on Federer. The media are much more quiet than they were last year when the Fed's pre-event results were just as poor as they are this year.
I guess they're not quite as keen to have mud on their face in case he again finishes the year as the world's top-ranked player.
But let's look at form. Del Potro is fresh from a big win but hasn't played the traditional warm up events. That makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity and difficult to back.
Slide down the list to Nikolay Davydenko. He's the form player, coming from his masters win late last year and his win in last week's warm up event, where he came back from a bagel down in the first set to defeat Raffa.
It's always difficult to bet on Davydenko. In the big money events, he's likely to come out and surprise everyone, yet he's equally able to "throw" - whether intentional or not - his first round match. But at 10/1, he's worth a small investment.
The other one is Robin Soderling. The Swede broke a 12-match losing streak against Federer in Abu Dhabi and has beaten Nadal two out of their last three encounters. He's not yet at the point where he'll consistently win Grand Slams and word is he's not overly liked by the players. But he is erratically capable of anything.
At 25/1, Soderling is a tall man with a big serve and he likes the Melbourne surface. At the odds, he's well worth an investment.
In the women's event, Kim Clijsters (3/1) looks hard to beat, especially if Justine Henin is ruled out. It's not smart to totally eliminate the Williams sisters, particularly Serena who as world number 1 will start favourite to win the event.
But Clijsters is the form player - looking fit and happy.
For those looking for an outsider, Elena Dementieva fires up at 14/1. There was a time last year when she strung together more than 10 games on the trot and was the world's form player, until she fell heavily to American giant killer Melanie Oudin.
Friday, January 8, 2010
How we work our bankroll
Friday guest tipping is up and running again, so I thought it might be worth a quick refresher about how we manage our bankroll, particularly if you want to follow us.
We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.
We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.
Friday, January 1, 2010
New Year's Resolutions
We don't usually follow the crowd, but it's probably timely to let you know what Aussiepunt has in store for 2010:
1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.
2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.
3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.
4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.
5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.
6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.
7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.
8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.
With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!
1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.
2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.
3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.
4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.
5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.
6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.
7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.
8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.
With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Free sports betting strategy and winning advice
Here's a free copy this sports pick wagering and betting system from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com.
Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.
It's worth a read:
Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.
Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.
The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.
Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.
2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.
So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.
The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.
Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.
As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".
For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.
In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!
5 Stars:
If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.
4 Stars:
If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!
3 Stars:
If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.
2 Stars:
If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.
1 Star:
These are competitors we recommend you avoid.
Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.
Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.
Good luck, and bring on the Games!
Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.
It's worth a read:
Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.
Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.
The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.
Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.
2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.
So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.
The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.
Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.
As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".
For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.
In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!
5 Stars:
If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.
4 Stars:
If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!
3 Stars:
If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.
2 Stars:
If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.
1 Star:
These are competitors we recommend you avoid.
Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.
Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.
Good luck, and bring on the Games!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Why are England's World Cup soccer odds so short ?
I can't say I totally understand the logic behind the way the market has panned out for the World Cup in South Africa 2010.
England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.
But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.
And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.
England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.
Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.
Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus
England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.
But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.
And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.
England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.
Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.
Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus
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