Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Why are England's World Cup soccer odds so short ?

I can't say I totally understand the logic behind the way the market has panned out for the World Cup in South Africa 2010.

England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.

But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.

And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.

England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.

Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.

Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus

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