Given that Jonathan Brown is off to a flyer, guaranteed at least 5 points from his first two games, $8 are not bad odds.
The other one who seems to be good value this year is Nick Reiwoldt, at $17. Active forwards showed last year that they can poll well, and they're pretty much dominating the league at the moment in terms of their impact on results.
Looking through the list, it is an interesting exercise to look for some early vote winners in the search for value. My few would be Matthew Boyd at $29, Aaron Sandilands at $51, and Ryan O'Keefe at $101. O'Keefe is likely to have polled in both his opening games and will play a key role for the Swans as they perform above expectations.
Sportingbet Australia odds:
Gary Ablett [GEEL] 6.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 8.00
Chris Judd [CARL] 13.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 15.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 15.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 17.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 17.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 19.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 19.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 23.00
Marc Murphy [CARL] 23.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 26.00
Simon Black [BRIS] 26.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 29.00
Leigh Montagna [STK] 29.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 29.00
Bryce Gibbs [CARL] 31.00
Alan Didak [COLL] 34.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 34.00
Nicholas Naitanui [WCE] 34.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 34.00
Kane Cornes [PORT] 41.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 41.00
Shaun Higgins [WBD] 41.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 51.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 51.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 67.00
Steve Johnson [GEEL] 67.00
Bernie Vince [ADEL] 81.00
Brad Sewell [HAW] 101.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 101.00
Brent Stanton [ESS] 101.00
Brock Mclean [CARL] 101.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 101.00
Daniel Rich [BRIS] 101.00
Luke Ball [COLL] 101.00
Luke Power [BRIS] 101.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 101.00
Ryan Griffen [WBD] 101.00
Ryan Okeefe [SYD] 101.00
Michael Barlow [FREM] 101.00
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Australian Derby update
There are some big bets early. Follow the betting is the best course of action, particularly following Shoot Out's poor last up start:
KIWI FILLY BACKED FOR DERBY RAID
Promising NZ filly Keep The Peace has been backed from $14 to $10 to win the Australian Derby with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing her to win over $90,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the filly had also been well backed in Oaks markets with punters confident she can emulate the efforts of the Clarry Conners trained Research who won the double in 1989.
“As soon as we posted a final field Derby market a punter rang to have $7000 on Keep The Peace at $14,” said Sullivan.
“And with her already well backed for the Oaks it seems the Kiwis are planning a significant hit and run here.”
Zabrasive heads the Derby market at $3.20 ahead of Rock Classic at $4.00.
2010 AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Zabrasive 3.20
Rock Classic 4.00
Shoot Out 5.75
Keep The Peace 11.00
Handsome Zulu 12.00
Descarado 12.00
Count Encosta 16.00
Monaco Consul 17.00
Extra Zero 35.00
Landlocked 41.00
Sherpa Tenzing 51.00
Saint Encosta 71.00
Suyama 81.00
Home On A Wing 101.00
Cedarberg 151.00
KIWI FILLY BACKED FOR DERBY RAID
Promising NZ filly Keep The Peace has been backed from $14 to $10 to win the Australian Derby with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing her to win over $90,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the filly had also been well backed in Oaks markets with punters confident she can emulate the efforts of the Clarry Conners trained Research who won the double in 1989.
“As soon as we posted a final field Derby market a punter rang to have $7000 on Keep The Peace at $14,” said Sullivan.
“And with her already well backed for the Oaks it seems the Kiwis are planning a significant hit and run here.”
Zabrasive heads the Derby market at $3.20 ahead of Rock Classic at $4.00.
2010 AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Zabrasive 3.20
Rock Classic 4.00
Shoot Out 5.75
Keep The Peace 11.00
Handsome Zulu 12.00
Descarado 12.00
Count Encosta 16.00
Monaco Consul 17.00
Extra Zero 35.00
Landlocked 41.00
Sherpa Tenzing 51.00
Saint Encosta 71.00
Suyama 81.00
Home On A Wing 101.00
Cedarberg 151.00
Hey Hey It's Saturday vs The Pacific
You'd have to think Hey Hey will win this one ... wouldn't you?
HEY,HEY TAKES ON THE PACIFIC
Sportingbet Australia has Hey,Hey It’s Saturday as a slight favourite to defeat Seven’s boom new series The Pacific in Wednesday week’s prime time ratings battle.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Nine could not expect the same phenomenal success that Hey, Hey received in its two reunion specials, the 7.30 timeslot gave them a slight advantage.
“The reunion specials were gold for Nine but it’s hard to imagine the same numbers this time around,” said Sullivan.
“But they are on air an hour earlier than the Pacific and should be making every effort to ensure viewers don’t switch to the Spielberg epic come 8.30.”
Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the program with the highest median ratings figure as per official Oztam figures.
HEY HEY IT’S SATURDAY v THE PACIFIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hey, Hey It’s Saturday 1.85
The Pacific 1.95
HEY,HEY TAKES ON THE PACIFIC
Sportingbet Australia has Hey,Hey It’s Saturday as a slight favourite to defeat Seven’s boom new series The Pacific in Wednesday week’s prime time ratings battle.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Nine could not expect the same phenomenal success that Hey, Hey received in its two reunion specials, the 7.30 timeslot gave them a slight advantage.
“The reunion specials were gold for Nine but it’s hard to imagine the same numbers this time around,” said Sullivan.
“But they are on air an hour earlier than the Pacific and should be making every effort to ensure viewers don’t switch to the Spielberg epic come 8.30.”
Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the program with the highest median ratings figure as per official Oztam figures.
HEY HEY IT’S SATURDAY v THE PACIFIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hey, Hey It’s Saturday 1.85
The Pacific 1.95
Can Tiger Woods win the Masters?
There was an interesting debate on Sydney radio this morning - whether the new Tiger Woods would be a better or worse golfer.
Oddly to me, the two professional sportsmen on the show - Triple M's The Grill Team - thought he'd find it hard to cope without the mistresses and extravagant lifestyle.
And if I might paraphrase Stuart MacGill, he seems to think the lifestyle was an exotic escape from the rollercoaster ride of the sporting arena. He also hinted that if Shane Warne didn't lead his exotic lifestyle, he wouldn't be the same standard cricketer. Mark Geyer agreed that familiarity was important for consistency in sport.
Dare it be suggested that a nagging wife is not conducive to good results.
Then there is the counter-argument: Without all those distractions, good or bad, there would be more time to focus on golf - golf would be the distraction from all those horrible things happening outside the sporting arena.
If, as has been reported, Tiger Woods has been training 15 hours a day, he'll be itching to get back into the competitive arena. He knows and likes the course. And remember all those people who discounted him in his first tournament back from injury. Many will still remember the long putt he sank to silence his critics.
You don't have to be a fan of the man, but as punters, we need to respect his golfing ability.
A few months ago, before the media circus, I argued that Tiger was a bad bet at even money - in short, chances of him winning more than half the events he enters are minute, which means he's generally under the odds each time he steps onto the golf course.
Now, however, at $5, he's worth thinking about!
Oddly to me, the two professional sportsmen on the show - Triple M's The Grill Team - thought he'd find it hard to cope without the mistresses and extravagant lifestyle.
And if I might paraphrase Stuart MacGill, he seems to think the lifestyle was an exotic escape from the rollercoaster ride of the sporting arena. He also hinted that if Shane Warne didn't lead his exotic lifestyle, he wouldn't be the same standard cricketer. Mark Geyer agreed that familiarity was important for consistency in sport.
Dare it be suggested that a nagging wife is not conducive to good results.
Then there is the counter-argument: Without all those distractions, good or bad, there would be more time to focus on golf - golf would be the distraction from all those horrible things happening outside the sporting arena.
If, as has been reported, Tiger Woods has been training 15 hours a day, he'll be itching to get back into the competitive arena. He knows and likes the course. And remember all those people who discounted him in his first tournament back from injury. Many will still remember the long putt he sank to silence his critics.
You don't have to be a fan of the man, but as punters, we need to respect his golfing ability.
A few months ago, before the media circus, I argued that Tiger was a bad bet at even money - in short, chances of him winning more than half the events he enters are minute, which means he's generally under the odds each time he steps onto the golf course.
Now, however, at $5, he's worth thinking about!
AFL premiership market update
Below is the latest AFL premiership market. On current and potential form, Hawthorn for mine is over the odds. The other two which seem to be over the odds on current form are Sydney and Fremantle, both outside $30.
Adelaide is the big drifter, and if they are beaten by Melbourne this weekend, expect that to plummet even further.
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.25
Western Bulldogs 5.00
Collingwood 7.50
Hawthorn 9.00
Brisbane 12.00
Adelaide 19.00
Carlton 31.00
Sydney 31.00
Fremantle 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Essendon 81.00
West Coast 126.00
North Melbourne 251.00
Melbourne 301.00
Richmond 401.00
Adelaide is the big drifter, and if they are beaten by Melbourne this weekend, expect that to plummet even further.
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.25
Western Bulldogs 5.00
Collingwood 7.50
Hawthorn 9.00
Brisbane 12.00
Adelaide 19.00
Carlton 31.00
Sydney 31.00
Fremantle 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Essendon 81.00
West Coast 126.00
North Melbourne 251.00
Melbourne 301.00
Richmond 401.00
Monday, April 5, 2010
Geelong vs Hawthorn fantasy results
Just the one game to end the round:
Winners: Jimmy Bartel; Sam Mitchell; Luke Hodge.
Aussiepunt tipped Mitchell and Hodge.
Based on a $10 wager on each, that means we're up $22 on the game.
So, for the week, Aussiepunt tipped 14/24. Based on an average $2.50 return for each, and a $10 wager on each, we're up $110.
If anybody wants to give it a crack next week, take a look at the Sportingbet site. Click on AFL and scroll down to the Superstars link. It's all explained there.
Winners: Jimmy Bartel; Sam Mitchell; Luke Hodge.
Aussiepunt tipped Mitchell and Hodge.
Based on a $10 wager on each, that means we're up $22 on the game.
So, for the week, Aussiepunt tipped 14/24. Based on an average $2.50 return for each, and a $10 wager on each, we're up $110.
If anybody wants to give it a crack next week, take a look at the Sportingbet site. Click on AFL and scroll down to the Superstars link. It's all explained there.
Coleman medal: Jonathan Brown to shorten
Expect some movements tomorrow for the Coleman Medal. The odds haven't been posted yet, but expect Jonathan Brown, Nick Reiwoldt and Jared Roughhead to shorten, while Fevola, Franklin and Pavlich to drift.
I'll post the latest odds as soon as I see them.
I'll post the latest odds as soon as I see them.
American Idol ... Lee Dewyze the dark horse
Now that American Idol is down to the final 9 and it's reasonably easy to see who the last 6 will be, it's time to start looking for a dark horse.
I'm not a fan of futures betting, but Lee Dewyze at $4.50 is a good bet. He's done nothing until last week, which was a wake up call for viewers looking for an alternative vote.
Crystal Bowersox is clearly the best singer there, but personality plays a huge part and Americans, like Australians, don't mind supporting an underdog - if they think he/she has a chance to win.
Siobhan peaked early and seems to be a one-trick pony. Casey is a safe bet to run through to the final 4, but it's unlikely he can pull out the "moment" judges and voters are looking for.
Lee for mine is an even money chance and sits at overs right now. He's not my favourite, but it harps back to the old saying: "Bet with your head, not with your heart."
Check the latest odds here.
I'm not a fan of futures betting, but Lee Dewyze at $4.50 is a good bet. He's done nothing until last week, which was a wake up call for viewers looking for an alternative vote.
Crystal Bowersox is clearly the best singer there, but personality plays a huge part and Americans, like Australians, don't mind supporting an underdog - if they think he/she has a chance to win.
Siobhan peaked early and seems to be a one-trick pony. Casey is a safe bet to run through to the final 4, but it's unlikely he can pull out the "moment" judges and voters are looking for.
Lee for mine is an even money chance and sits at overs right now. He's not my favourite, but it harps back to the old saying: "Bet with your head, not with your heart."
Check the latest odds here.
AFL Hawthorn vs Geelong preview
This is set to be a cracking game, with the Hawks finding some form and Geelong not quite the same side of old. Both teams will be remembering the 2008 grand final, so intensity should be at a terrific high.
Sportingbet again has some fantasy trio betting options:
Ablett vs Bartel vs Chapman
All three were keys in their victory last week, with Ablett out to prove his loyalty to the club, he scored 129 points, including 13 kicks, 24 handballs and a couple of goals. Bartel scored 114 points and Chapman 105, but Chapman is the wildcard this week for mine. Ablett is likely to get a hard tag which means Chapman will be in a position to take up some of the slack.
Tip: While Chapman is a real chance in probably the toughest of fantasy trios, it's hard to tip against Ablett.
Joel Selwood vs Mitchell vs Corey
By his own high standards, Mitchell was just on par last week, but still managed 27 touches and 112 points, while Selwood is caught in a team with extremely high possession counts and managed 107 points, including 23 disposals and 9 tackles. Corey's intensity wasn't up to his usual standard with 80 points, but expect that to lift against the Hawks. Note the last time Geelong played the Hawks, Selwood had 42 disposals.
Tip: We'll expect Mitchell to take a leading role today to narrowly pip Selwood.
Hodge vs Lewis vs Enright
Hodge was outstanding in the first week with 34 disposals, 9 marks and 5 tackles. Throw in a goal and he racked up 142 points. Lewis had 27 disposals for 109 points and Enright 17 disposals for 90 points.
Tip: It's hard to go against form, so we'll tip Hodge to repeat his 2008 grand final dose on the Cats.
Sportingbet again has some fantasy trio betting options:
Ablett vs Bartel vs Chapman
All three were keys in their victory last week, with Ablett out to prove his loyalty to the club, he scored 129 points, including 13 kicks, 24 handballs and a couple of goals. Bartel scored 114 points and Chapman 105, but Chapman is the wildcard this week for mine. Ablett is likely to get a hard tag which means Chapman will be in a position to take up some of the slack.
Tip: While Chapman is a real chance in probably the toughest of fantasy trios, it's hard to tip against Ablett.
Joel Selwood vs Mitchell vs Corey
By his own high standards, Mitchell was just on par last week, but still managed 27 touches and 112 points, while Selwood is caught in a team with extremely high possession counts and managed 107 points, including 23 disposals and 9 tackles. Corey's intensity wasn't up to his usual standard with 80 points, but expect that to lift against the Hawks. Note the last time Geelong played the Hawks, Selwood had 42 disposals.
Tip: We'll expect Mitchell to take a leading role today to narrowly pip Selwood.
Hodge vs Lewis vs Enright
Hodge was outstanding in the first week with 34 disposals, 9 marks and 5 tackles. Throw in a goal and he racked up 142 points. Lewis had 27 disposals for 109 points and Enright 17 disposals for 90 points.
Tip: It's hard to go against form, so we'll tip Hodge to repeat his 2008 grand final dose on the Cats.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
AFL Fantasy tipping results Sunday
Three games on Sunday:
Adelaide vs Sydney:
Winners: Ryan O'Keefe; Scott Thompson; Bock.
Aussiepunt tipped O'Keefe to win for a narrow overall loss.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're down $6 on that game.
Essendon vs Fremantle:
Winners: Aaron Sandilands; Greg Broughton; Michael Barlow.
Aussiepunt tipped Broughton and Barlow for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.
Bulldogs vs Richmond:
Winners: Lindsay Gilbee; Matthew Boyd; Cooney.
Aussiepunt tipped Boyd and Cooney for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.
Adelaide vs Sydney:
Winners: Ryan O'Keefe; Scott Thompson; Bock.
Aussiepunt tipped O'Keefe to win for a narrow overall loss.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're down $6 on that game.
Essendon vs Fremantle:
Winners: Aaron Sandilands; Greg Broughton; Michael Barlow.
Aussiepunt tipped Broughton and Barlow for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.
Bulldogs vs Richmond:
Winners: Lindsay Gilbee; Matthew Boyd; Cooney.
Aussiepunt tipped Boyd and Cooney for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.
NRL Sunday tips - Warriors, Manly, Canberra, Wests
All four home teams have won so far this week, including the shock result at Shark Park.
Can it continue? If form has anything to do with it, it shouldn't.
Manly travels across the ditch to take on the Warriors, and this is one of the most difficult games to pick. The Warriors are unpredictable and perhaps one of the most under-rated sides in the competition. But Manly still has something to prove. I'd expect Manly to win the battle of the halves, while out wide is a lottery. If you like Manly, take the line for value. If you like the Warriors, they're better than even money, so take that. I don't often sit on the fence, but I'm afraid I'm struggling with this one!
In the other game, Wests take their razzle dazzle to Canberra. Wests should break the trend by winning away. Canberra's ball handling has been awful of late and they're up against the best attacking side in the NRL. Take Wests to cover the line.
Any other result would be an upset.
Can it continue? If form has anything to do with it, it shouldn't.
Manly travels across the ditch to take on the Warriors, and this is one of the most difficult games to pick. The Warriors are unpredictable and perhaps one of the most under-rated sides in the competition. But Manly still has something to prove. I'd expect Manly to win the battle of the halves, while out wide is a lottery. If you like Manly, take the line for value. If you like the Warriors, they're better than even money, so take that. I don't often sit on the fence, but I'm afraid I'm struggling with this one!
In the other game, Wests take their razzle dazzle to Canberra. Wests should break the trend by winning away. Canberra's ball handling has been awful of late and they're up against the best attacking side in the NRL. Take Wests to cover the line.
Any other result would be an upset.
AFL Bulldogs vs Richmond preview
The Bulldogs should win this game easy, but Sportingbet's fantasy markets are interesting. There are some potentially tight ones among them.
Giansiracusa vs Murphy vs Gilbee
Giansiracusa had a great pre-season but wasn't up to it last week against Collingwood with just 63 fantasy points, including 13 touches, 6 marks and 3 tackles. Murphy, however, showed that he's prepared to make space with 12 marks and 23 touches. Gilbee was also ordinary against the Pies with 17 touches, but just 1 mark and 3 tackles.
Tip: Murphy seems to be finding his old form, leading into space and running all day. He should outdo his opponents (or should we say team mates) again.
Boyd vs Cross vs Delidio
Boyd is one of the most skilled players in the AFL and despite the loss last week, still managed 38 touches, racking up 128 fantasy points. Cross seemed to be everywhere and out-tackled Boyd, but 29 possessions meant he reached 107 points. It's hard to judge a man who is part of a well defeated team, but Brett Delidio picked up 21 touches, 5 marks and 6 tackles in his 94 points.
Tip: Boyd is the class player and has terrific form.
Higgins vs Cooney vs Hargrave
On pure form, this is a tough one to pick. Cooney seems stuck on doing the extraordinary, rather than concentrating on perfecting the basics as he can, and seems to be constantly over-running the ball. His 26 touches seem good, but only 4 marks was out of character. Higgins was quiet for a half last week, but bounced back in the second to finish with 23 possessions, 5 marks and a couple of tackles, finishing just 3 fantasy points ahead of Cooney. On form, we can forget Hargrave, but needless to say the coach has probably had a few words after just 14 touches last week.
Tip: We'd expect Cooney's butter fingers to disappear this week against weaker opposition. He could have a field day.
Giansiracusa vs Murphy vs Gilbee
Giansiracusa had a great pre-season but wasn't up to it last week against Collingwood with just 63 fantasy points, including 13 touches, 6 marks and 3 tackles. Murphy, however, showed that he's prepared to make space with 12 marks and 23 touches. Gilbee was also ordinary against the Pies with 17 touches, but just 1 mark and 3 tackles.
Tip: Murphy seems to be finding his old form, leading into space and running all day. He should outdo his opponents (or should we say team mates) again.
Boyd vs Cross vs Delidio
Boyd is one of the most skilled players in the AFL and despite the loss last week, still managed 38 touches, racking up 128 fantasy points. Cross seemed to be everywhere and out-tackled Boyd, but 29 possessions meant he reached 107 points. It's hard to judge a man who is part of a well defeated team, but Brett Delidio picked up 21 touches, 5 marks and 6 tackles in his 94 points.
Tip: Boyd is the class player and has terrific form.
Higgins vs Cooney vs Hargrave
On pure form, this is a tough one to pick. Cooney seems stuck on doing the extraordinary, rather than concentrating on perfecting the basics as he can, and seems to be constantly over-running the ball. His 26 touches seem good, but only 4 marks was out of character. Higgins was quiet for a half last week, but bounced back in the second to finish with 23 possessions, 5 marks and a couple of tackles, finishing just 3 fantasy points ahead of Cooney. On form, we can forget Hargrave, but needless to say the coach has probably had a few words after just 14 touches last week.
Tip: We'd expect Cooney's butter fingers to disappear this week against weaker opposition. He could have a field day.
AFL Bombers vs Fremantle preview
Essendon should bounce back after last week, but Freo are on a high after their win against Adelaide at home last week. The Bombers home ground advantage should be enough to see them win.
Fantasy markets on Sportingbet follow:
Stanton vs Sandilands vs Prismall
Stanton was sensational last week with 33 touches, 7 marks and 8 tackles for 145 fantasy points, well ahead of Sandilands who managed 97 - 33 of them hitouts. Prismall was solid with 22 touches and 8 tackles for 98 points. These are three class players.
Tip: It's hard to tip against form, so Stanton should prevail here.
Broughton vs Watson vs Pavlich
Broughton should play more on the ball than Pavlich which gives him the edge when it comes to fantasy points. The difference will be whether Pavlich can do a Jonathan Brown or Riewoldt and dominate the half forward line. But he must also kick a bag of goals. Broughton racked up 32 touches in the win last week, adding 7 marks and 4 tackles. Pavlich was also good with 22 touches and 3 goals. Jobe Watson, by his standards, was ordinary with 18 touches, only 1 mark, 3 tackles and 2 goals.
Tip: Again, form is a good indicator, so we'll go with Broughton.
Barlow vs Winderlich vs Welsh
Barlow kicked some serious butt against Adelaide with 33 touches, 6 marks, 4 tackles and 2 goals for a score of 128. Welsh for the Bombers will need to lift considerably this week to make his team and coach happy. 22 touches, just the 1 mark and 5 tackles is not enough, nor is his 75 points. Winderlich had a great pre-season, but didn't take that form with him to the first round - just 17 possessions, 3 marks and 2 tackles.
Tip: If form is a true guide, we must favour Barlow to outscore these two opponents, although Winderlich must lift.
Fantasy markets on Sportingbet follow:
Stanton vs Sandilands vs Prismall
Stanton was sensational last week with 33 touches, 7 marks and 8 tackles for 145 fantasy points, well ahead of Sandilands who managed 97 - 33 of them hitouts. Prismall was solid with 22 touches and 8 tackles for 98 points. These are three class players.
Tip: It's hard to tip against form, so Stanton should prevail here.
Broughton vs Watson vs Pavlich
Broughton should play more on the ball than Pavlich which gives him the edge when it comes to fantasy points. The difference will be whether Pavlich can do a Jonathan Brown or Riewoldt and dominate the half forward line. But he must also kick a bag of goals. Broughton racked up 32 touches in the win last week, adding 7 marks and 4 tackles. Pavlich was also good with 22 touches and 3 goals. Jobe Watson, by his standards, was ordinary with 18 touches, only 1 mark, 3 tackles and 2 goals.
Tip: Again, form is a good indicator, so we'll go with Broughton.
Barlow vs Winderlich vs Welsh
Barlow kicked some serious butt against Adelaide with 33 touches, 6 marks, 4 tackles and 2 goals for a score of 128. Welsh for the Bombers will need to lift considerably this week to make his team and coach happy. 22 touches, just the 1 mark and 5 tackles is not enough, nor is his 75 points. Winderlich had a great pre-season, but didn't take that form with him to the first round - just 17 possessions, 3 marks and 2 tackles.
Tip: If form is a true guide, we must favour Barlow to outscore these two opponents, although Winderlich must lift.
Fantasy tipping results
There were three games yesterday.
Collingwood vs Melbourne:
Winners: Jordie McKenzie; Aaron Davey; Dane Swan.
Aussiepunt tipped McKenzie and Swan for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.
St Kilda vs North Melbourne:
Winners: Nick Dal Santo; Nick Riewoldt; David Armitage
Aussiepunt tipped Riewoldt for a narrow loss.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're down $4 on that game.
West Coast vs Port Adelaide:
Winners: Kane Cornes; Adam Selwood; Nic Natanui
Aussiepunt tipped Cornes and Selwood for another good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $22 on that game.
Collingwood vs Melbourne:
Winners: Jordie McKenzie; Aaron Davey; Dane Swan.
Aussiepunt tipped McKenzie and Swan for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.
St Kilda vs North Melbourne:
Winners: Nick Dal Santo; Nick Riewoldt; David Armitage
Aussiepunt tipped Riewoldt for a narrow loss.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're down $4 on that game.
West Coast vs Port Adelaide:
Winners: Kane Cornes; Adam Selwood; Nic Natanui
Aussiepunt tipped Cornes and Selwood for another good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $22 on that game.
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Golden Slipper Result
1. Crystal Lily
2. Decision Time
3. More Strawberries
Beaten favourite: Military Rose.
2. Decision Time
3. More Strawberries
Beaten favourite: Military Rose.
Golden Slipper update
More Strawberries is badly drawn in the outside barrier, but it was my pick at $17. It is interesting to see that it's come in to $11 now and will need plenty of luck in running. If it gets that luck, however, it'll be hard to beat and has a terrific turn of speed.
Here's the latest from the bookmakers:
MONEY ARRIVES FOR CHANCE BYE AND SOLAR CHARGED
More Strawberries has been the best backed Slipper runner this week at Sportingbet Australia but the money has dried up with the prospect of a drier track.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money in the day prior to the Slipper had finally come for Solar Charged and Chance Bye.
“More Strawberries was backed solidly from $21 to $11 early in the week with breeding students keen on her heavy track prospects,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged and Chance Bye were both unlayable but with the track improving they’ve both been backed heavily in the last day.”
Solar Charged is in from $12 to $10, while Chance Bye has firmed from $13 to $10 with no money for either Brightexpectations or Hinchinbrook.
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Crystal Lily 5.50
Brightexpectations 6.50
Chance Bye 10.00
Solar Charged 10.00
More Strawberries 11.00
Beneteau 12.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Decision Time 26.00
Obsequious 34.00
Carved In Stone 51.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 71.00
Lohan 81.00
Here's the latest from the bookmakers:
MONEY ARRIVES FOR CHANCE BYE AND SOLAR CHARGED
More Strawberries has been the best backed Slipper runner this week at Sportingbet Australia but the money has dried up with the prospect of a drier track.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money in the day prior to the Slipper had finally come for Solar Charged and Chance Bye.
“More Strawberries was backed solidly from $21 to $11 early in the week with breeding students keen on her heavy track prospects,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged and Chance Bye were both unlayable but with the track improving they’ve both been backed heavily in the last day.”
Solar Charged is in from $12 to $10, while Chance Bye has firmed from $13 to $10 with no money for either Brightexpectations or Hinchinbrook.
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Crystal Lily 5.50
Brightexpectations 6.50
Chance Bye 10.00
Solar Charged 10.00
More Strawberries 11.00
Beneteau 12.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Decision Time 26.00
Obsequious 34.00
Carved In Stone 51.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 71.00
Lohan 81.00
Friday, April 2, 2010
AFL Adelaide vs Sydney preview
Sydney was terrific against the Saints last week on their home turf, but this week they travel away to Adelaide who were woeful against Fremantle. Expect Adelaide to improve considerably on their 157 possessions last week. Sydney was also low with 171, but have a high tackle count.
O'Keefe vs Vince vs Goodes
The temptation here is to look towards Vince and Goodes as the class midfielders, but O'Keefe's work-rate is a sign of his form - 123 points last week, including 18 kicks and 15 handballs, 7 tackles and a goal. Vince was poor with 22 touches (69 points) in a poor side and should lift. Goodes is an impact player and can do some freakish things, but he's not one to mount up extraordinary numbers of possessions due to his tag. He kicked three goals last week for 86 points (16 touches).
Tip: It's hard to argue against form, and O'Keefe's role on the ball should help him win this.
Thompson vs Edwards vs Bolton
Form here is tough. Expect Adelaide to lift its possession rate, and one person who should help do that is Tyson Edwards. His 99 points last week included 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 8 marks. Thompson played towards the forward line and kicked two goals, and racked up 23 possessions in his 85 points, while Bolton scored 94 (23 possessions) but was more inclined to handball (16).
Tip: Based on the theory that Adelaide needs to lift its workrate, we'll go with Edwards, but this trio is a tough call.
Goodwin vs Bock vs Rhyce Shaw
If we're to go purely on form, this trio is sadly out of form. Simon Goodwin scored 70 points from his 24 touches (17 handballs) last week, Bock had 17 touches, 3 goals and 3 tackles, and a goal for his 76 points, while Shaw was ordinary with 10 kicks and 10 handballs for 64 points. Shaw will normally take more than 5 marks at half back, so if he's more of a go-to man from the kickouts, that could improve his score. Just one tackle was a let-down for him.
Tip: I'm nervous to tip anyone here, but I'd expect the Swans to look for more run out of halfback from Shaw. On the larger ground, he should lift, but Goodwin's a real threat here.
O'Keefe vs Vince vs Goodes
The temptation here is to look towards Vince and Goodes as the class midfielders, but O'Keefe's work-rate is a sign of his form - 123 points last week, including 18 kicks and 15 handballs, 7 tackles and a goal. Vince was poor with 22 touches (69 points) in a poor side and should lift. Goodes is an impact player and can do some freakish things, but he's not one to mount up extraordinary numbers of possessions due to his tag. He kicked three goals last week for 86 points (16 touches).
Tip: It's hard to argue against form, and O'Keefe's role on the ball should help him win this.
Thompson vs Edwards vs Bolton
Form here is tough. Expect Adelaide to lift its possession rate, and one person who should help do that is Tyson Edwards. His 99 points last week included 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 8 marks. Thompson played towards the forward line and kicked two goals, and racked up 23 possessions in his 85 points, while Bolton scored 94 (23 possessions) but was more inclined to handball (16).
Tip: Based on the theory that Adelaide needs to lift its workrate, we'll go with Edwards, but this trio is a tough call.
Goodwin vs Bock vs Rhyce Shaw
If we're to go purely on form, this trio is sadly out of form. Simon Goodwin scored 70 points from his 24 touches (17 handballs) last week, Bock had 17 touches, 3 goals and 3 tackles, and a goal for his 76 points, while Shaw was ordinary with 10 kicks and 10 handballs for 64 points. Shaw will normally take more than 5 marks at half back, so if he's more of a go-to man from the kickouts, that could improve his score. Just one tackle was a let-down for him.
Tip: I'm nervous to tip anyone here, but I'd expect the Swans to look for more run out of halfback from Shaw. On the larger ground, he should lift, but Goodwin's a real threat here.
AFL West Coast vs Port Adelaide preview
This is a tough game to call, particularly given that West Coast will have the home ground advantage. Both put in decent performances last week, albeit in a fashion one could expect from round 1, ie a little scratchy.
Kane Cornes vs Priddis vs Cassisi
Cassisi's 19 touches and 5 tackles last week was okay (72 points), but Kane Cornes has been everywhere this year. His 131 points last week was made up of 16 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks and 5 tackles. He's prepared to make space, but equally willing to tough it out in the packs. Priddis had 11 kicks, 18 handballs, 3 marks and 4 tackles (95 points) and is a key for the Eagles, but the question will be whether he can out-run Kornes and whether he'll be more of a go-to man this week without Ben Cousins in the side.
Tip: Kornes should win this, but expect Priddis to score more than 100 points as he takes some of the ground left by Cousins.
Boak vs Adam Selwood vs Embley
This is tricky. Boak's 98 points was made up of 17 kicks and 6 tackles last week, but Selwood will be expected to lead the way for the Eagles in this contest. His 16 kicks and 15 handballs last week (108 points) was good, and his club will be hoping it's average by his standards. Embley plays more in the forward line and can be boosted with a goal or two, but he'd have to lift his tackle count to upset the other two.
Tip: On form and expectation, we'll go with Selwood to pip Boak in this one.
Banner vs Swift vs Natanui
The bookies have put the new boys together, and each of them performed okay last week. But Banner is the class outfit with 18 touches and notably 1 goal 3 behinds. His 79 points was average by his pre-season standards, so he has room to improve. Swift would have to improved considerably upon his 11 touches last week (32 points) and Natanui - while doing some outstanding things with the ball - is not one to rack up high fantasy numbers (54 last week, including 16 hitouts and a goal)
Tip: Banner is more inclined to be near the ball, and should get enough points here.
Kane Cornes vs Priddis vs Cassisi
Cassisi's 19 touches and 5 tackles last week was okay (72 points), but Kane Cornes has been everywhere this year. His 131 points last week was made up of 16 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks and 5 tackles. He's prepared to make space, but equally willing to tough it out in the packs. Priddis had 11 kicks, 18 handballs, 3 marks and 4 tackles (95 points) and is a key for the Eagles, but the question will be whether he can out-run Kornes and whether he'll be more of a go-to man this week without Ben Cousins in the side.
Tip: Kornes should win this, but expect Priddis to score more than 100 points as he takes some of the ground left by Cousins.
Boak vs Adam Selwood vs Embley
This is tricky. Boak's 98 points was made up of 17 kicks and 6 tackles last week, but Selwood will be expected to lead the way for the Eagles in this contest. His 16 kicks and 15 handballs last week (108 points) was good, and his club will be hoping it's average by his standards. Embley plays more in the forward line and can be boosted with a goal or two, but he'd have to lift his tackle count to upset the other two.
Tip: On form and expectation, we'll go with Selwood to pip Boak in this one.
Banner vs Swift vs Natanui
The bookies have put the new boys together, and each of them performed okay last week. But Banner is the class outfit with 18 touches and notably 1 goal 3 behinds. His 79 points was average by his pre-season standards, so he has room to improve. Swift would have to improved considerably upon his 11 touches last week (32 points) and Natanui - while doing some outstanding things with the ball - is not one to rack up high fantasy numbers (54 last week, including 16 hitouts and a goal)
Tip: Banner is more inclined to be near the ball, and should get enough points here.
AFL St Kilda vs North Melbourne preview
St Kilda should win this game, but that doesn't mean the Kangaroos' key forwards won't touch the ball. It'll be interesting to see whether the Saints put a hard tag on Liam Anthony.
Anthony vs Goddard vs Dal Santo
Anthony has been a ball magnet throughout the pre-season, and that form continued last week with 14 kicks, 12 handballs and 10 marks. Goddard is generally used as an impact player for the Saints, while Dal Santo's strength is the hard ball gets. Despite being on a losing side, Liam Anthony's fantasy score of 132 was well ahead of Goddard (88) and Dal Santo (77).
Tip: Liam Anthony is likely to be on a losing side, but his work-rate is outstanding. He should win this on form.
Montagna vs Riewoldt vs Hayes
This is a tough one. Montagna (100 points last week) is consistently the highest ball-winner for the Saints, while Riewoldt (111 points last week) will score high due to his leading and marking ability, combined with goal-kicking power - a bit like Jonathan Brown for Brisbane. Hayes (99 points last week) is consistent, but it would surprise if he was the leader of this contest.
Tip: The Saints spread the ball around a lot among their high class midfield. If Riewoldt can kick 6 goals, he should win this match-up.
Harvey vs Ray vs Armitage
Harvey consistently proves why he's a champion, and last week added three goals to his 23 possessions (16 kicks), driving his fantasy score to 93. Farren Ray plays a role for the Saints and can at times rack up plenty of possessions - 76 fantasy points last week was below par for him. David Armitage only managed 10 possessions and 49 fantasy points. He'd have to lift considerably to challenge the other two.
Tip: Harvey should have more time in the midfield which should help him rack up enough points to win, but expect Ray to lift.
Anthony vs Goddard vs Dal Santo
Anthony has been a ball magnet throughout the pre-season, and that form continued last week with 14 kicks, 12 handballs and 10 marks. Goddard is generally used as an impact player for the Saints, while Dal Santo's strength is the hard ball gets. Despite being on a losing side, Liam Anthony's fantasy score of 132 was well ahead of Goddard (88) and Dal Santo (77).
Tip: Liam Anthony is likely to be on a losing side, but his work-rate is outstanding. He should win this on form.
Montagna vs Riewoldt vs Hayes
This is a tough one. Montagna (100 points last week) is consistently the highest ball-winner for the Saints, while Riewoldt (111 points last week) will score high due to his leading and marking ability, combined with goal-kicking power - a bit like Jonathan Brown for Brisbane. Hayes (99 points last week) is consistent, but it would surprise if he was the leader of this contest.
Tip: The Saints spread the ball around a lot among their high class midfield. If Riewoldt can kick 6 goals, he should win this match-up.
Harvey vs Ray vs Armitage
Harvey consistently proves why he's a champion, and last week added three goals to his 23 possessions (16 kicks), driving his fantasy score to 93. Farren Ray plays a role for the Saints and can at times rack up plenty of possessions - 76 fantasy points last week was below par for him. David Armitage only managed 10 possessions and 49 fantasy points. He'd have to lift considerably to challenge the other two.
Tip: Harvey should have more time in the midfield which should help him rack up enough points to win, but expect Ray to lift.
Brisbane vs Carlton fantasy results
Winners: Jonathan Brown; Luke Power; Jarred Brennan
That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.
Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?
That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.
Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?
AFL Collingwood vs Melbourne preview
It's interesting to note that the bookies are unwilling to pit Melbourne players against the Melbourne boys, based on the theory that the Pies will well out-possess the Demons.
But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.
Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie
Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.
Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.
Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey
Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.
Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.
Swan vs Didak vs Davis
While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.
Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.
But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.
Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie
Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.
Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.
Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey
Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.
Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.
Swan vs Didak vs Davis
While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.
Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NRL bet of the round North Queensland vs Gold Coast
If you're looking for value, our pick of the round would have to be the Cowboys to overcome the Titans.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
AFL fantasy team scoring system
For those having a punt on the new Sportingbet fantasy challenge, the scoring system goes thus:
Kick 3 points
Handball 2 points
Mark 3 points
Tackle 4 points
Free Kick For 1 point
Free Kick Against 3 points
Hitout 1 point
Goal 6 points
Behind 1 point
Kick 3 points
Handball 2 points
Mark 3 points
Tackle 4 points
Free Kick For 1 point
Free Kick Against 3 points
Hitout 1 point
Goal 6 points
Behind 1 point
Brisbane vs Carlton preview and dream team predictions
Fantasy markets have been drawn for tonight’s Carlton vs Brisbane game in Brisbane. They’ve been cunningly presented by the bookmakers, but that’s the idea.
There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo
Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.
Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.
Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark
This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.
Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.
Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman
Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.
Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.
Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.
There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo
Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.
Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.
Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark
This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.
Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.
Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman
Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.
Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.
Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.
Racing tips
Here's a few tips which came through today from the watchers at TAB New South Wales. They're not usually far from the mark, so take them or leave them:
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Thursday 1st April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 3 - 6:55pm
No.6 - SEE YOU LATER BOYS
Saturday 3rd April
Rosehill Race 7 - 4:05pm
No.2 - HINCHINBROOK
Saturday 3rd April
Wentworth Park Race 8 - 10:15pm
No.2 - FANCY MANDY
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Thursday 1st April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 3 - 6:55pm
No.6 - SEE YOU LATER BOYS
Saturday 3rd April
Rosehill Race 7 - 4:05pm
No.2 - HINCHINBROOK
Saturday 3rd April
Wentworth Park Race 8 - 10:15pm
No.2 - FANCY MANDY
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tiger Woods action ... everybody wants a bit
Seems everyone wants a piece of Tiger Woods action.
Bookmakers in the UK are taking bets on whether Tiger will hit a tree with his first drive, or whether he'll kiss a blonde on the way to the tee. While this is an outrageous publicity stunt, there will be plenty of opportunities to increase the odds of winning for punters.
Sportingbet in Australia has some terrific exotics, including one which predicts how many birdies Tiger will hit (not how many females will be struck by his golf ball). 0-3 at $3+ isn't a bad option.
Tiger's at $1.08 to make the cut and $1.18 not to finish first.
Below is Victor Chandler's offer. We'll publish more as we hear of them:
Place a bet on the Outright Winner and if your selection fails to win, but finishes ahead of Tiger Woods Victor Chandler will refund your losing stake as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per player. Applies to win only bets and the win part of each-way bets. Applies to singles only, placed via telephone, internet or mobile. Does not apply to in-running bets. Applies to bets on outright market only placed from 30/03/10. Free bets credited 12/04/10.
Bookmakers in the UK are taking bets on whether Tiger will hit a tree with his first drive, or whether he'll kiss a blonde on the way to the tee. While this is an outrageous publicity stunt, there will be plenty of opportunities to increase the odds of winning for punters.
Sportingbet in Australia has some terrific exotics, including one which predicts how many birdies Tiger will hit (not how many females will be struck by his golf ball). 0-3 at $3+ isn't a bad option.
Tiger's at $1.08 to make the cut and $1.18 not to finish first.
Below is Victor Chandler's offer. We'll publish more as we hear of them:
Place a bet on the Outright Winner and if your selection fails to win, but finishes ahead of Tiger Woods Victor Chandler will refund your losing stake as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per player. Applies to win only bets and the win part of each-way bets. Applies to singles only, placed via telephone, internet or mobile. Does not apply to in-running bets. Applies to bets on outright market only placed from 30/03/10. Free bets credited 12/04/10.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Golden Slipper update
Before last weekend, we expected the market to bunch up somewhat, which seems to be happening after the barrier draw for the Golden Slipper.
We agree that Military Rose deserves to be favourite, but it is an unpredictable field and could be some value to be had.
From the statements from bookmakers below, punters seem to be looking for value.
More Strawberries jumped badly on Saturday and was caught wide for the majority of the race. The horse battled on gamely and hit the line well despite the unlucky run. That's where the value just might be.
LILY THE ONE TO BEAT IN SLIPPER
Following today's barrier draw, IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey says Crystal Lily is the horse to beat in the 2010 Golden Slipper.
"Crystal Lily ($6.00 into $5.00) is my pick for the Slipper," said IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey. "She's drawn perfectly and should be able to sit in behind the speed. She's a strong filly that will have plenty in hand at the finish and is the one to beat."
Twomey said Military Rose ($3.60) is a deserved favourite but may have a chink in his armour.
"He deserves to be favourite given what he has achieved, but second up after his Magic Millions campaign is a hard task and I think he is vulnerable," said Twomey"
"Brightexpectations ($7.50 into $6.00) also drew well and should get the run of the race."
Shaheeq and More Strawberries (both $15.00 out to $19.00) didn't fare as well in the draw and their odds drifted accordingly.
Market courtesy of IASbet.com
2010 Golden Slipper
$3.60 Military Rose
$5.00 Crystal Lily
$6.00 Brightexpectations
$11.00 Chance Bye
$15.00 Hichinbrook
$11.00 Bennetau
$15.00 Solar Charged
$21.00 Decision Time
$19.00 More Strawberries
$19.00 Shaheeq
$26.00 Obsequious
$51.00 Elimbari
$101.00 Georgette Silk
$51.00 Carved In Stone
$151.00 Lohan
PUNTERS WANT MORE STRAWBERRIES
Sportingbet Australia punters have not been deterred by the wide barrier or late rider change for More Strawberries with two punters backing the Gai Waterhouse filly to win $40,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said More Strawberries was the subject of all the final field Slipper action with her price tumbling in from $21 to $16.
“We wrote a bet of $2000 at $21 and the phone was hardly in the cradle before another punter outlaid $2500 at $19,” said Sullivan.
“While Military Rose is still our worst result, the early action suggests More Strawberries could shorten plenty before the betting’s all done.”
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Brightexpectations 5.00
Crystal Lily 5.50
Chance Bye 11.00
Solar Charged 12.00
Hinchinbrook 12.00
Beneteau 12.00
More Strawberries 16.00
Decision Time 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Obsequious 34.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 81.00
Carved In Stone 101.00
Lohan 151.00
We agree that Military Rose deserves to be favourite, but it is an unpredictable field and could be some value to be had.
From the statements from bookmakers below, punters seem to be looking for value.
More Strawberries jumped badly on Saturday and was caught wide for the majority of the race. The horse battled on gamely and hit the line well despite the unlucky run. That's where the value just might be.
LILY THE ONE TO BEAT IN SLIPPER
Following today's barrier draw, IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey says Crystal Lily is the horse to beat in the 2010 Golden Slipper.
"Crystal Lily ($6.00 into $5.00) is my pick for the Slipper," said IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey. "She's drawn perfectly and should be able to sit in behind the speed. She's a strong filly that will have plenty in hand at the finish and is the one to beat."
Twomey said Military Rose ($3.60) is a deserved favourite but may have a chink in his armour.
"He deserves to be favourite given what he has achieved, but second up after his Magic Millions campaign is a hard task and I think he is vulnerable," said Twomey"
"Brightexpectations ($7.50 into $6.00) also drew well and should get the run of the race."
Shaheeq and More Strawberries (both $15.00 out to $19.00) didn't fare as well in the draw and their odds drifted accordingly.
Market courtesy of IASbet.com
2010 Golden Slipper
$3.60 Military Rose
$5.00 Crystal Lily
$6.00 Brightexpectations
$11.00 Chance Bye
$15.00 Hichinbrook
$11.00 Bennetau
$15.00 Solar Charged
$21.00 Decision Time
$19.00 More Strawberries
$19.00 Shaheeq
$26.00 Obsequious
$51.00 Elimbari
$101.00 Georgette Silk
$51.00 Carved In Stone
$151.00 Lohan
PUNTERS WANT MORE STRAWBERRIES
Sportingbet Australia punters have not been deterred by the wide barrier or late rider change for More Strawberries with two punters backing the Gai Waterhouse filly to win $40,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said More Strawberries was the subject of all the final field Slipper action with her price tumbling in from $21 to $16.
“We wrote a bet of $2000 at $21 and the phone was hardly in the cradle before another punter outlaid $2500 at $19,” said Sullivan.
“While Military Rose is still our worst result, the early action suggests More Strawberries could shorten plenty before the betting’s all done.”
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Brightexpectations 5.00
Crystal Lily 5.50
Chance Bye 11.00
Solar Charged 12.00
Hinchinbrook 12.00
Beneteau 12.00
More Strawberries 16.00
Decision Time 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Obsequious 34.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 81.00
Carved In Stone 101.00
Lohan 151.00
Gold Logie contenders
On this blog, we often talk about the power of incumbency in elections. The same principle applies with the Gold Logie. Given that it's a public vote, they'll recognise Gibney's name from last year and lodge the vote.
After all, most of them are in it for the prize on offer as an incentive for voting.
My money's with Gibney for this one, as nice as it would be to see Alf get home.
WILL ALF GRAB THE GOLD FROM GIBNEY?
Rebecca Gibney is a heavily backed $1.70 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to take her second consecutive Gold Logie but punters are warming up to the chances of veteran Home and Away actor Ray Meagher.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said, while the big money had been for Gibney, there were plenty wanting to take the $4.50 on offer about Meagher.
“We’ve taken bets including $2000 at $1.90 on Rebecca Gibney but Ray Meagher seems to have all the momentum,” said Sullivan.
“There’s plenty of Alf Stewart fans prepared to put their money where their mouth is.”
Sullivan said Meagher would be favourite if the Gold Logie was industry rather than publicly decided.
“There’s little doubt that Meagher would be rewarded for his years of service if the industry decided this one,” Sullivan said.
“But this is a popularity contest and Rebecca Gibney has been arguably the most popular Australian actress in the past twenty years.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 1.70
Ray Meagher 4.50
Rove McManus 5.00
Adam Hills 8.00
Shaun Micallef 15.00
Will Anderson 26.00
Paul McDermott 34.00
Esther Anderson 41.00
After all, most of them are in it for the prize on offer as an incentive for voting.
My money's with Gibney for this one, as nice as it would be to see Alf get home.
WILL ALF GRAB THE GOLD FROM GIBNEY?
Rebecca Gibney is a heavily backed $1.70 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to take her second consecutive Gold Logie but punters are warming up to the chances of veteran Home and Away actor Ray Meagher.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said, while the big money had been for Gibney, there were plenty wanting to take the $4.50 on offer about Meagher.
“We’ve taken bets including $2000 at $1.90 on Rebecca Gibney but Ray Meagher seems to have all the momentum,” said Sullivan.
“There’s plenty of Alf Stewart fans prepared to put their money where their mouth is.”
Sullivan said Meagher would be favourite if the Gold Logie was industry rather than publicly decided.
“There’s little doubt that Meagher would be rewarded for his years of service if the industry decided this one,” Sullivan said.
“But this is a popularity contest and Rebecca Gibney has been arguably the most popular Australian actress in the past twenty years.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 1.70
Ray Meagher 4.50
Rove McManus 5.00
Adam Hills 8.00
Shaun Micallef 15.00
Will Anderson 26.00
Paul McDermott 34.00
Esther Anderson 41.00
AFL draft system gone wrong
A quick scan through the coming weekend's AFL match odds reveals that the Western Bulldogs are at $1.06 with Sportingbet against Richmond, while Collingwood are at a marginally healthier $1.07 to beat Melbourne.
While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.
Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.
Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.
To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.
A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.
I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!
While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.
Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.
Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.
To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.
A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.
I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!
Monday, March 29, 2010
Lionel Messi vs Wayne Rooney goals
This is the latest from Victor Chandler in the UK. It's an interesting market and I'm no genius on Premier League, but Messi is deserved favourite for mine.
Wording as released by the bookmaker is below:
There are two world class strikers on everyone’s lips at the moment, Wayne Rooney and Lionel Messi, and Victor Chandler have opened a market on which one will score the most goals in the Champions League from the Quarter Final stage onwards.
If both Man United and Barcelona get through to the Semi Finals they will avoid each other and many people consider them favourites to contest the Final in Madrid. Messi is the 11/10 favourite with VC and Rooney is 6/4, with the tie at 7/2.
“Rooney and Messi are a class apart at the moment, and their respective clubs will be looking to them to carry on scoring for the remainder of the tournament.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“It should be a fascinating contest to see who’ll bag the most goals.”
Rooney v Messi: Goal Match Bet from Q-Finals Onwards
Lionel Messi 11/10
Tie 7/2
Wayne Rooney 6/4
Wording as released by the bookmaker is below:
There are two world class strikers on everyone’s lips at the moment, Wayne Rooney and Lionel Messi, and Victor Chandler have opened a market on which one will score the most goals in the Champions League from the Quarter Final stage onwards.
If both Man United and Barcelona get through to the Semi Finals they will avoid each other and many people consider them favourites to contest the Final in Madrid. Messi is the 11/10 favourite with VC and Rooney is 6/4, with the tie at 7/2.
“Rooney and Messi are a class apart at the moment, and their respective clubs will be looking to them to carry on scoring for the remainder of the tournament.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“It should be a fascinating contest to see who’ll bag the most goals.”
Rooney v Messi: Goal Match Bet from Q-Finals Onwards
Lionel Messi 11/10
Tie 7/2
Wayne Rooney 6/4
BMW horse racing update
As readers of this blog will know, I'm not a big fan of futures betting. I think too many people take short odds too far out from the outcome. Consequently, their choice strikes injury, conditions change, form kicks in or out, lots of things can happen.
There is one situation when futures can work in a punter's favour, however, and that's when they spot a reasonable chance at long odds.
That's what has happened with the BMW. They see a reasonable chance of rain and take mud runners at 100-1. Sadly, the rest of us will now find the 20-1 a little short to worry about!
BIG MONEY FOR WET TRACKERS IN BMW
Punters have backed two long priced mudlarks for this Saturday’s BMW with big bets struck on both Harris Tweed and No Wine No Song at Sportingbet Australia.
Harris Tweed has been backed from $41 to $21 at Sportingbet while No Wine No Song has been the subject of a sustained move that has seen his price shorten up from $101 to $21 in the past week.
“We took bets of $44,000 to $1100 and $34,000 to $1000 each way on Harris Tweed this morning which certainly suggests he has done well since his last start second in New Zealand, “ Said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We laid a bet of $20,000 to $200 each way on No Wine No Song last week and he gradually shortened up to $26 where we took a bet of $50,000 to $2000 each way this morning.
“Both horses have won on heavy tracks so I am sure the punters will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in Sydney this week.”
Theseo is the current $3.20 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Speed Gifted at $6 and Daffodil at $8.00.
The BMW 2010 (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Theseo 3.20
Speed Gifted 6.00
Daffodil 8.00
Moatize 11.00
Littorio 13.00
Roman Emperor 15.00
Vigor 19.00
Purple 21.00
Harris Tweed 21.00
Divine Rebel 21.00
No Wine No Song 21.00
Others $26+
There is one situation when futures can work in a punter's favour, however, and that's when they spot a reasonable chance at long odds.
That's what has happened with the BMW. They see a reasonable chance of rain and take mud runners at 100-1. Sadly, the rest of us will now find the 20-1 a little short to worry about!
BIG MONEY FOR WET TRACKERS IN BMW
Punters have backed two long priced mudlarks for this Saturday’s BMW with big bets struck on both Harris Tweed and No Wine No Song at Sportingbet Australia.
Harris Tweed has been backed from $41 to $21 at Sportingbet while No Wine No Song has been the subject of a sustained move that has seen his price shorten up from $101 to $21 in the past week.
“We took bets of $44,000 to $1100 and $34,000 to $1000 each way on Harris Tweed this morning which certainly suggests he has done well since his last start second in New Zealand, “ Said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We laid a bet of $20,000 to $200 each way on No Wine No Song last week and he gradually shortened up to $26 where we took a bet of $50,000 to $2000 each way this morning.
“Both horses have won on heavy tracks so I am sure the punters will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in Sydney this week.”
Theseo is the current $3.20 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Speed Gifted at $6 and Daffodil at $8.00.
The BMW 2010 (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Theseo 3.20
Speed Gifted 6.00
Daffodil 8.00
Moatize 11.00
Littorio 13.00
Roman Emperor 15.00
Vigor 19.00
Purple 21.00
Harris Tweed 21.00
Divine Rebel 21.00
No Wine No Song 21.00
Others $26+
Collingwood premiership chances
Collingwood fans have reason to be excited after the weekend's clash against premiership favourites, the Western Bulldogs.
In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.
The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.
But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.
Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.
In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.
The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.
But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.
Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Australian Grand Prix results Melbourne
Anyone who picked Button to repeat his effort of last year would have netted a very nice 17-1.
Here are the final race positions:
1 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:33:36.531
2 Robert Kubica Renault 58 +12.0 secs
3 Felipe Massa Ferrari 58 +14.4 secs
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 58 +16.3 secs
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP 58 +16.6 secs
6 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 58 +29.8 secs
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 58 +59.8 secs
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 58 +60.5 secs
9 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 58 +67.3 secs
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP 58 +69.3 secs
11 Jaime Alguersuari STR-Ferrari 58 +71.3 secs
12 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 58 +74.0 secs
13 Heikki Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 56 +2 Laps
14 Karun Chandhok HRT-Cosworth 53 +5 Laps
Ret Timo Glock Virgin-Cosworth 41 +17 Laps
Ret Lucas di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 26 +32 Laps
Ret Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 25 +33 Laps
Ret Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 9 Engine
Ret Vitaly Petrov Renault 9 +49 Laps
Ret Bruno Senna HRT-Cosworth 4 +54 Laps
Ret Sebastien Buemi STR-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 0 Accident
Ret Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Jarno Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 0 Hydraulics
Here are the final race positions:
1 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:33:36.531
2 Robert Kubica Renault 58 +12.0 secs
3 Felipe Massa Ferrari 58 +14.4 secs
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 58 +16.3 secs
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP 58 +16.6 secs
6 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 58 +29.8 secs
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 58 +59.8 secs
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 58 +60.5 secs
9 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 58 +67.3 secs
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP 58 +69.3 secs
11 Jaime Alguersuari STR-Ferrari 58 +71.3 secs
12 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 58 +74.0 secs
13 Heikki Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 56 +2 Laps
14 Karun Chandhok HRT-Cosworth 53 +5 Laps
Ret Timo Glock Virgin-Cosworth 41 +17 Laps
Ret Lucas di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 26 +32 Laps
Ret Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 25 +33 Laps
Ret Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 9 Engine
Ret Vitaly Petrov Renault 9 +49 Laps
Ret Bruno Senna HRT-Cosworth 4 +54 Laps
Ret Sebastien Buemi STR-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 0 Accident
Ret Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Jarno Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 0 Hydraulics
Fantasy team punting
A number of people I've spoken to recently say they don't have time to get involved with Fantasy Leagues and competitions. And where there's no return, I can't blame them - actually, I'm in exactly the same boat.
But I've been sucked in by Sportingbet's innovation for this year's footy season. It works the same way as a 3-ball in golf betting, that is three players are pitted head to head. Their performance on the field dictates how many points they get.
And put simply, the player with the most fantasy points at the end of the game is declared the winner.
It's three points for a kick, two points for a handball, four for a tackle etc. Anyway, I'll be giving an analysis of some of the markets over the next couple of weeks.
I've found that it's a great way to watch the game. Regardless of the result, your player is still in the contest until the end. It's great fun and an added interest in the game. There are also opportunities to make some real money as most picks are around the $2.50-$2.80 mark.
We'll discuss a few AFL options as markets are posted towards the middle of the week.
Until then, if you want to put a few dollars into an account with Sportingbet and have a look at what the whole Fantasy betting is all about, do it here.
But I've been sucked in by Sportingbet's innovation for this year's footy season. It works the same way as a 3-ball in golf betting, that is three players are pitted head to head. Their performance on the field dictates how many points they get.
And put simply, the player with the most fantasy points at the end of the game is declared the winner.
It's three points for a kick, two points for a handball, four for a tackle etc. Anyway, I'll be giving an analysis of some of the markets over the next couple of weeks.
I've found that it's a great way to watch the game. Regardless of the result, your player is still in the contest until the end. It's great fun and an added interest in the game. There are also opportunities to make some real money as most picks are around the $2.50-$2.80 mark.
We'll discuss a few AFL options as markets are posted towards the middle of the week.
Until then, if you want to put a few dollars into an account with Sportingbet and have a look at what the whole Fantasy betting is all about, do it here.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Pago Pago Stakes Hinchinbrook chances
This release doesn't surprise me, particularly given the poor running of other Golden Slipper chances over recent weeks.
But expect a bold showing from Hinchinbrook and also expect the odds to bunch up in the week leading up to the Slipper.
NO LOVE FOR HINCHINBROOK
Punters are shying away from taking the short odds on offer for Hinchinbrook in Saturday’s Pago Pago with significant betting moves for Brightexpectations and Pressday at Sportingbet Australia.
Brightexpectations has been backed from $4.50 to $2.70 at Sportingbet Australia while Pressday has been the subject of some big bets and had shortened from $7.00 to $5.00.
“Pressday and Brightexpectations are certainly the two the punters have landed on and we are finding it difficult to lay Hinchinbrook at this stage,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We took a bet of $6000 each way at the $7.00 on Pressday and a bet to take out over $25,000 on Brightexpectations not long after opening the market.
“Both horses need to win to gain a Golden Slipper run so they should be fully wound up for this while Hinchinbrook may still have a little improvement to come.”
Hinchinbrook is out $2.25 at Sportingbet Australia but Sullivan said he expected the support to arrive before race time.
He has drifted significantly even with the scratching of Carved in Stone who looked a real contender but he was very impressive last start so I am sure punters will come for him,” Sullivan said.
“It is clear however, they don’t think Hinchinbrook is across the line as the early money has all been for Brightexpectations and Pressday.”
PAGO PAGO STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hinchinbrook 2.25
Brightexpectations 2.70
Pressday 5.00
Skorost 13.00
Dux Bellorum 21.00
Blackball 31.00
Gold Arena 31.00
Unflinchingresolve 41.00
The Last General 71.00
Choiseul 81.00
But expect a bold showing from Hinchinbrook and also expect the odds to bunch up in the week leading up to the Slipper.
NO LOVE FOR HINCHINBROOK
Punters are shying away from taking the short odds on offer for Hinchinbrook in Saturday’s Pago Pago with significant betting moves for Brightexpectations and Pressday at Sportingbet Australia.
Brightexpectations has been backed from $4.50 to $2.70 at Sportingbet Australia while Pressday has been the subject of some big bets and had shortened from $7.00 to $5.00.
“Pressday and Brightexpectations are certainly the two the punters have landed on and we are finding it difficult to lay Hinchinbrook at this stage,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We took a bet of $6000 each way at the $7.00 on Pressday and a bet to take out over $25,000 on Brightexpectations not long after opening the market.
“Both horses need to win to gain a Golden Slipper run so they should be fully wound up for this while Hinchinbrook may still have a little improvement to come.”
Hinchinbrook is out $2.25 at Sportingbet Australia but Sullivan said he expected the support to arrive before race time.
He has drifted significantly even with the scratching of Carved in Stone who looked a real contender but he was very impressive last start so I am sure punters will come for him,” Sullivan said.
“It is clear however, they don’t think Hinchinbrook is across the line as the early money has all been for Brightexpectations and Pressday.”
PAGO PAGO STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hinchinbrook 2.25
Brightexpectations 2.70
Pressday 5.00
Skorost 13.00
Dux Bellorum 21.00
Blackball 31.00
Gold Arena 31.00
Unflinchingresolve 41.00
The Last General 71.00
Choiseul 81.00
Congratulations to Sydney Triple M Grill Team
This is not normal for this blog, but I was touched by big Mark Geyer's outburst of emotion on this morning's radio show, on Sydney's Triple M Grill Team.
MG's tears during a tribute to Oscar Buhagiar - the 6-year-old number 1 Eels fan who lost his battle against cancer on Monday - showed a softer side of the hard man of rugby league.
Well done to the team for embracing emotion. And well done to the Eels for creating jerseys to remember their gutsy supporter.
As a journalist, we're taught to be objective in everything we do and it goes against the grain to praise a commercial enterprise, or for that matter others in the media industry.
But this is a worthy exception. The emotion of the tribute to Oscar, coupled with one of the funniest Gotcha calls I've heard, along with a giveaway (sending people to the Formule 1 at the airport) made it one of the best mornings of radio I've experienced.
Congratulations to the entire team. You deserve it.
MG's tears during a tribute to Oscar Buhagiar - the 6-year-old number 1 Eels fan who lost his battle against cancer on Monday - showed a softer side of the hard man of rugby league.
Well done to the team for embracing emotion. And well done to the Eels for creating jerseys to remember their gutsy supporter.
As a journalist, we're taught to be objective in everything we do and it goes against the grain to praise a commercial enterprise, or for that matter others in the media industry.
But this is a worthy exception. The emotion of the tribute to Oscar, coupled with one of the funniest Gotcha calls I've heard, along with a giveaway (sending people to the Formule 1 at the airport) made it one of the best mornings of radio I've experienced.
Congratulations to the entire team. You deserve it.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Carlton vs Richmond preview
We can dig deep into analysis of this game, but it’s a case of the under-performing knowns (Carlton) up against the under-performing unknowns (Richmond).
That might at first sound like some sort of cellar science experiment, but the theory is really simple. Carlton has a solid lineup which should now be consolidating a place in the finals.
But it look seriously like 2010 will be another season teetering on the edge of the top 8. It might be that if they win tonight, they’ll sneak into the finals. If they lose, after just one round, their season is almost gone.
Waite, Scotland, Thornton, Murphy, Simpson, McLean, Kreuzer, O’Hailpin. This list is an accomplished one and should pull the Blues through the game without the services of star performer Chris Judd. The absence of Judd probably accounts for the generous $1.45 being paid by some bookmakers.
Richmond on the other hand has a list still unknown to most AFL watchers. All eyes will be on star draft pick Dustin Martin. Mitchell Farmer is another one. Ben Cousins is always an unknown and given he’s been suffering flu symptoms, that just increases the mystery. Nahas, Morton, and others have had games and performed okay in the big-stage environment. But will they stand up enough to win games?
The bottom line here: Expect a bold showing from the Tigers, but Carlton – even without Judd, should be able to find enough cohesion to take the points, by 20.
Fantasy team bargain: Watch for Mitch Robinson to pick up a mountain of possession, drawing from last year’s experience to become a key player in the Blues lineup.
That might at first sound like some sort of cellar science experiment, but the theory is really simple. Carlton has a solid lineup which should now be consolidating a place in the finals.
But it look seriously like 2010 will be another season teetering on the edge of the top 8. It might be that if they win tonight, they’ll sneak into the finals. If they lose, after just one round, their season is almost gone.
Waite, Scotland, Thornton, Murphy, Simpson, McLean, Kreuzer, O’Hailpin. This list is an accomplished one and should pull the Blues through the game without the services of star performer Chris Judd. The absence of Judd probably accounts for the generous $1.45 being paid by some bookmakers.
Richmond on the other hand has a list still unknown to most AFL watchers. All eyes will be on star draft pick Dustin Martin. Mitchell Farmer is another one. Ben Cousins is always an unknown and given he’s been suffering flu symptoms, that just increases the mystery. Nahas, Morton, and others have had games and performed okay in the big-stage environment. But will they stand up enough to win games?
The bottom line here: Expect a bold showing from the Tigers, but Carlton – even without Judd, should be able to find enough cohesion to take the points, by 20.
Fantasy team bargain: Watch for Mitch Robinson to pick up a mountain of possession, drawing from last year’s experience to become a key player in the Blues lineup.
Matty Johns footy show
This is a tough one.
The Matty Johns show in its first week will little doubt grab heaps of attention and will likely out-do the Channel 9 version.
Don't expect that to happen into the second week, but it's this week that counts.
WILL MATTY JOHNS OUTRATE THE FOOTY SHOW?
The new Matty Johns Rugby League Show is a $1.85 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to rate higher than the established NRL Footy Show.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there was much anticipation about Channel 7’s new NRL venture.
“We think the hype will lead to viewers tuning in tonight to see what the Matty Johns Show is all about,” said Sullivan.
“While it may struggle to maintain a long term advantage over it’s more established rival, we think tonight will be a success.”
Sportingbet Australia is betting on the highest median rating for the shows in NSW and Queensland.
MATTY JOHNS SHOW v NRL FOOTY SHOW – HIGHEST RATINGS 25 MARCH
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
Matty Johns Show 1.85
NRL Footy Show 1.95
The Matty Johns show in its first week will little doubt grab heaps of attention and will likely out-do the Channel 9 version.
Don't expect that to happen into the second week, but it's this week that counts.
WILL MATTY JOHNS OUTRATE THE FOOTY SHOW?
The new Matty Johns Rugby League Show is a $1.85 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to rate higher than the established NRL Footy Show.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there was much anticipation about Channel 7’s new NRL venture.
“We think the hype will lead to viewers tuning in tonight to see what the Matty Johns Show is all about,” said Sullivan.
“While it may struggle to maintain a long term advantage over it’s more established rival, we think tonight will be a success.”
Sportingbet Australia is betting on the highest median rating for the shows in NSW and Queensland.
MATTY JOHNS SHOW v NRL FOOTY SHOW – HIGHEST RATINGS 25 MARCH
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
Matty Johns Show 1.85
NRL Footy Show 1.95
Rosehill Guineas update
Let's just add to this little announcement that both Run for Naara and Hanks are very well priced for this race.
$25,000 BET FOR QUEENSLAND ACE IN GUINEAS SHOOT OUT
In form Queensland gelding, Shoot Out, has been heavily backed to continue his winning form in Saturday’s Rosehill Guineas with one punter investing $25,000 on him at Sportingbet Australia.
The John Wallace trained three year old is solid at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Shoot Out would be hard to beat, there did look to be a few runners who would be helped by the step up to 2000 metres.
“Shoot Out has been very heavily backed all preparation with punters landing a plunge in the Royal Sovereign, launching again when he just missed in the Hobartville and backing up when he won the Randwick Guineas,” Sullivan said.
“This week looks like being no different with the $25,000 leading the charge but there have been plenty of other bets.
“There’s no doubt that Shoot Out looks the pick of the three year olds but he is on trial at this trip.
“Captain Sonador, Run For Naara and Hanks will all benefit from the extra trip and Rock Classic returns home after conquering Set For Fame and Denman in the Australian Guineas.”
ROSEHILL GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rock Classic 3.00
Shoot Out 3.50
Zabrasive 5.50
Captain Sonador 9.00
Run For Naara 12.00
Hanks 14.00
Kidnapped 14.00
Extra Zero 17.00
Gathering 26.00
Cosmocrat 41.00
Saint Encosta 101.00
$25,000 BET FOR QUEENSLAND ACE IN GUINEAS SHOOT OUT
In form Queensland gelding, Shoot Out, has been heavily backed to continue his winning form in Saturday’s Rosehill Guineas with one punter investing $25,000 on him at Sportingbet Australia.
The John Wallace trained three year old is solid at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Shoot Out would be hard to beat, there did look to be a few runners who would be helped by the step up to 2000 metres.
“Shoot Out has been very heavily backed all preparation with punters landing a plunge in the Royal Sovereign, launching again when he just missed in the Hobartville and backing up when he won the Randwick Guineas,” Sullivan said.
“This week looks like being no different with the $25,000 leading the charge but there have been plenty of other bets.
“There’s no doubt that Shoot Out looks the pick of the three year olds but he is on trial at this trip.
“Captain Sonador, Run For Naara and Hanks will all benefit from the extra trip and Rock Classic returns home after conquering Set For Fame and Denman in the Australian Guineas.”
ROSEHILL GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rock Classic 3.00
Shoot Out 3.50
Zabrasive 5.50
Captain Sonador 9.00
Run For Naara 12.00
Hanks 14.00
Kidnapped 14.00
Extra Zero 17.00
Gathering 26.00
Cosmocrat 41.00
Saint Encosta 101.00
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Golden Slipper ... if the shoe fits, back it
Golden Slipper odds are up and down at a faster rate than a uni student on viagra.
As soon as there's a whisper, a race run and won, or something on the rumour mill, the fluctuations kick in.
Earlier in the week, I said the shortened odds on Military Rose were premature, given that a number of horses in the field still had some opportunities to prove themselves.
This means there will be plenty of fluctuation yet. One of those horses yet to run is Beneteau which was the subject of the below media release. But there are others, not the least of them Hinchinbrook which is set to run this weekend.
There is likely to be money for Masquerader and Crystal Lily will almost certainly shorten if and when nominated. Watching the market movements is an interesting spectator sport in its own.
BENETEAU BACK IN FAVOUR
Former Golden Slipper favourite Beneteau has been the heavily backed in the past 24 hours shortening from $16 to $11 at Sportingbet Australia.
Beneteau had been a $7.50 joint favourite for the Slipper before disappointing behind Hinchinbrook last start but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters still thought he could win the big one.
“One punter backed him to win $40,000 while we also took bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 this week, Sullivan said.
“He was a little disappointing last start when a raging favourite but he covered more ground than the early explorers and punters have forgiven that run.”
“He has been clearly been the best backed horse this week with the exception of Military Rose who is now a raging Slipper favourite.”
Military Rose is the $3.00 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Crystal Lily at $5.75 and Chance Bye at $8.50.
“Military Rose has been the one the punters have wanted all week with a bet of $100,000 leading the charge,” Sullivan said.
“Hinchinbrook is the other horse interesting punters and he could well be the big shortener if he impresses in the Pago Pago.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Beneteau 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Skilled 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
As soon as there's a whisper, a race run and won, or something on the rumour mill, the fluctuations kick in.
Earlier in the week, I said the shortened odds on Military Rose were premature, given that a number of horses in the field still had some opportunities to prove themselves.
This means there will be plenty of fluctuation yet. One of those horses yet to run is Beneteau which was the subject of the below media release. But there are others, not the least of them Hinchinbrook which is set to run this weekend.
There is likely to be money for Masquerader and Crystal Lily will almost certainly shorten if and when nominated. Watching the market movements is an interesting spectator sport in its own.
BENETEAU BACK IN FAVOUR
Former Golden Slipper favourite Beneteau has been the heavily backed in the past 24 hours shortening from $16 to $11 at Sportingbet Australia.
Beneteau had been a $7.50 joint favourite for the Slipper before disappointing behind Hinchinbrook last start but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters still thought he could win the big one.
“One punter backed him to win $40,000 while we also took bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 this week, Sullivan said.
“He was a little disappointing last start when a raging favourite but he covered more ground than the early explorers and punters have forgiven that run.”
“He has been clearly been the best backed horse this week with the exception of Military Rose who is now a raging Slipper favourite.”
Military Rose is the $3.00 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Crystal Lily at $5.75 and Chance Bye at $8.50.
“Military Rose has been the one the punters have wanted all week with a bet of $100,000 leading the charge,” Sullivan said.
“Hinchinbrook is the other horse interesting punters and he could well be the big shortener if he impresses in the Pago Pago.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Beneteau 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Skilled 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix preview
Bahrain proved nothing which is why the odds are as open as they are for the Australian Grand Prix.
The fastest times are being posted by Lewis Hamilton's Red Bull car, both in practice sessions and on the rare occasions cars experienced a dry Bahrain track.
If that's the case, he'll be out to prove he's the one to beat for the championship, taking note that the past four World Champions have been winners of the Melbourne event. At $7.50, it's tasty odds on what could be considered a realistic 3-1 chance.
Webber's odds can only be explained by the media hype in Australia which has surrounded his two victories. Notably the man who was not overly liked by the media has all of a sudden been labelled a national hero by 60 Minutes.
Isn't it odd how the worm turns?
Anyway, here's the latest frame from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS KEEN ON WEBBER'S CHANCES
Aussie punters are getting on board Mark Webber’s attempt to win his maiden Australian GP with the Red Bull driver backed in from $13 to $8 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was the only one punters wanted in the lead up to the race.
“There’s a sprinkle of money for Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher but we’re writing six bets on Webber for every bet on any opponent at this stage,” said Sullivan.
“He’s looked nice and relaxed since he’s been in Australia and the punters think he’s a huge chance on Sunday.”
Fernando Alonso heads betting at $3, ahead of Vettel at $3.50 and Felipe Massa at $6.50.
Seven time World Champion Michael Schumacher is at $21 to mark his return to Australia with a win.
AUSTRALIAN F1 GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Fernando Alonso [FER] 3.00
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.50
Felipe Massa [FER] 6.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 7.50
Mark Webber [RED] 8.00
Jenson Button [McL] 17.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 21.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 21.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 67.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 81.00
Rubens Barrichello [WIL] 81.00
Others 101.00 Plus
The fastest times are being posted by Lewis Hamilton's Red Bull car, both in practice sessions and on the rare occasions cars experienced a dry Bahrain track.
If that's the case, he'll be out to prove he's the one to beat for the championship, taking note that the past four World Champions have been winners of the Melbourne event. At $7.50, it's tasty odds on what could be considered a realistic 3-1 chance.
Webber's odds can only be explained by the media hype in Australia which has surrounded his two victories. Notably the man who was not overly liked by the media has all of a sudden been labelled a national hero by 60 Minutes.
Isn't it odd how the worm turns?
Anyway, here's the latest frame from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS KEEN ON WEBBER'S CHANCES
Aussie punters are getting on board Mark Webber’s attempt to win his maiden Australian GP with the Red Bull driver backed in from $13 to $8 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was the only one punters wanted in the lead up to the race.
“There’s a sprinkle of money for Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher but we’re writing six bets on Webber for every bet on any opponent at this stage,” said Sullivan.
“He’s looked nice and relaxed since he’s been in Australia and the punters think he’s a huge chance on Sunday.”
Fernando Alonso heads betting at $3, ahead of Vettel at $3.50 and Felipe Massa at $6.50.
Seven time World Champion Michael Schumacher is at $21 to mark his return to Australia with a win.
AUSTRALIAN F1 GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Fernando Alonso [FER] 3.00
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.50
Felipe Massa [FER] 6.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 7.50
Mark Webber [RED] 8.00
Jenson Button [McL] 17.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 21.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 21.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 67.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 81.00
Rubens Barrichello [WIL] 81.00
Others 101.00 Plus
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
AFL season preview
I enjoy the rugby league, rugby union, soccer (football), winter sports and pretty much any other sport which makes its way onto my television screen.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
Socceroos new coach
The bookmakers have posted odds on who will become the Socceroos next coach.
But it's a bunch of names posted on what would normally be regarded as the second line of betting.
Unless you have some inside information (if so, we'd like you to share), this is a pie in the sky speculator, and I think we can find some better $5-8 chances with greater prospects of a positive outcome.
In short, there's little value here as it seems the bookies are feeling out the market to see whether there's any backroom discussion. If so, it'll be quickly leaked into the betting arena.
WHO WILL COACH THE SOCCEROOS?
Sportingbet Australia has installed Feyenoord Technical Director Leo Beenhakker as a $4.80 favourite to lead the Socceroos to the 2014 World Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Beenhakker’s experience made him a logical favourite.
“If Beenhakker is interested it will take a pretty good CV to beat him for the job,” said Sullivan.
“With stints in charge of clubs like Ajax and Real Madrid and the Dutch, Polish, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago national sides he certainly has the kind of experience needed.”
Others in the market include Frenchman Philippe Troussier, current technical director Hans Berger and perennial Aussie favourite Guus Hiddink .
“You’d think Hiddink would only be a rough chance to want the job back,” said Sullivan.
“But if he does put his hand up the job would no doubt be his.”
NEXT SOCCEROOS COACH
Sportingbet Australia Market
Leo Beenhakker 4.80
Philippe Troussier 5.00
Guus Hiddink 5.50
Johan Neeskens 6.00
Jan Versleijen 6.00
Hans Berger 6.00
Frank Rijkaard 8.00
Vitislav Lavicka 17.00
Steve McClaren 21.00
Ricky Herbert 26.00
Martin Jol 26.00
Aurelio Vidmar 51.00
But it's a bunch of names posted on what would normally be regarded as the second line of betting.
Unless you have some inside information (if so, we'd like you to share), this is a pie in the sky speculator, and I think we can find some better $5-8 chances with greater prospects of a positive outcome.
In short, there's little value here as it seems the bookies are feeling out the market to see whether there's any backroom discussion. If so, it'll be quickly leaked into the betting arena.
WHO WILL COACH THE SOCCEROOS?
Sportingbet Australia has installed Feyenoord Technical Director Leo Beenhakker as a $4.80 favourite to lead the Socceroos to the 2014 World Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Beenhakker’s experience made him a logical favourite.
“If Beenhakker is interested it will take a pretty good CV to beat him for the job,” said Sullivan.
“With stints in charge of clubs like Ajax and Real Madrid and the Dutch, Polish, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago national sides he certainly has the kind of experience needed.”
Others in the market include Frenchman Philippe Troussier, current technical director Hans Berger and perennial Aussie favourite Guus Hiddink .
“You’d think Hiddink would only be a rough chance to want the job back,” said Sullivan.
“But if he does put his hand up the job would no doubt be his.”
NEXT SOCCEROOS COACH
Sportingbet Australia Market
Leo Beenhakker 4.80
Philippe Troussier 5.00
Guus Hiddink 5.50
Johan Neeskens 6.00
Jan Versleijen 6.00
Hans Berger 6.00
Frank Rijkaard 8.00
Vitislav Lavicka 17.00
Steve McClaren 21.00
Ricky Herbert 26.00
Martin Jol 26.00
Aurelio Vidmar 51.00
Monday, March 22, 2010
Golden Slipper update
In an earlier post today, I expressed my views on the Golden Slipper field, saying any bet on the favourite would have to be carefully thought out, rather than driven by media hype, or the fact Military Rose was able to beat home Solar Charged at the weekend.
Well, if it's any indication, we'd hope that a $100,000 bet was carefully thought out:
GOLDEN SLIPPER: $100,000 BET ON MILITARY ROSE
Military Rose is set to start as one of the shortest priced Golden Slipper favourites in years after some enormous bets were placed on the Queensland filly at Sportingbet Australia following her win in the Reisling.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters have crashed her price into $3.00 with a string of bets on Saturday night and Sunday.
“We went back up at $3.40 on Saturday afternoon and immediately got claimed with a bet of $100,000,” Sullivan said.
“Since the Reisling, she has been the only horse punters have been interested in backing which isn’t surprising given how she dealt with a quality field which included former Slipper favourite, Solar Charged.”
“The way she won the Magic Millions her win on Saturday will ensure she starts a short priced favourite unless we see something special from Hinchinbrook or something else in the Pago Pago this weekend.”
Crystal Lily who isn’t nominated for the Slipper is on the second line of betting at $5.75 with Sportingbet ahead of fairytale filly Chance Bye at $8.50, with Hinchinbrook the first of the colts at $9.00.
“The three fillies are certainly the ones to beat at the moment but Hinchinbrook could be the big shortener if he wins well on Saturday,” Sullivan said.
2010 Golden Slipper (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Well, if it's any indication, we'd hope that a $100,000 bet was carefully thought out:
GOLDEN SLIPPER: $100,000 BET ON MILITARY ROSE
Military Rose is set to start as one of the shortest priced Golden Slipper favourites in years after some enormous bets were placed on the Queensland filly at Sportingbet Australia following her win in the Reisling.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters have crashed her price into $3.00 with a string of bets on Saturday night and Sunday.
“We went back up at $3.40 on Saturday afternoon and immediately got claimed with a bet of $100,000,” Sullivan said.
“Since the Reisling, she has been the only horse punters have been interested in backing which isn’t surprising given how she dealt with a quality field which included former Slipper favourite, Solar Charged.”
“The way she won the Magic Millions her win on Saturday will ensure she starts a short priced favourite unless we see something special from Hinchinbrook or something else in the Pago Pago this weekend.”
Crystal Lily who isn’t nominated for the Slipper is on the second line of betting at $5.75 with Sportingbet ahead of fairytale filly Chance Bye at $8.50, with Hinchinbrook the first of the colts at $9.00.
“The three fillies are certainly the ones to beat at the moment but Hinchinbrook could be the big shortener if he wins well on Saturday,” Sullivan said.
2010 Golden Slipper (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
AFL Year of the Full Forward
The Coleman this year is likely to see a return of the spearhead full forward, particularly with Barry Hall clearly in the picture for the Western Bulldogs.
It might be a bit extreme to think that a first-year recruit will win the medal and upstage some rivals. Podsiadly will certainly be fed some good ball, but Geelong has a long list of goalkickers in its side.
Lance Franklin didn't shine last year, but expect him to be a more likely target for the Hawks this year.
Advice: Wait for three or four rounds into the competition before making a call. The favourites won't firm much, but you'll have a far better idea about who might come from behind to win it.
If Franklin or Fevola kick 10 in their first game, their odds will plummet, but it's far better getting an educated idea on shorter odds than to take a wild punt in the futures market.
PODSIADLY PRICE SLASHED IN COLEMAN MARKET
Following news that Geelong has promoted James Podsiadly to its senior list, online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has trimmed the 28-year-old’s price to win the Coleman Medal in his debut season from $81 to $51.
This follows earlier ‘speccing’ on Podsiadly where one punter had $1000 on the Cat forward to win the Coleman at the astronomical odds of $501 for a potential $500,000 pay day.
“We stand to lose half a million on Podsiadly in one bet, let alone tens of thousands more from punters who backed him at $81 before the announcement of his promotion,” said Lane.
While Podsiadly is the bookie’s worst result, Lane said the biggest plunge had been saved for Western Bulldogs spearhead Barry Hall.
“Barry Hall has been the big firmer in Coleman Medal betting. You could get $17 about him in mid-February, now he’s the third favourite in betting at $6.50,” said Lane.
“Since the NAB Cup Grand Final, four out of every five bets we’ve taken on the Coleman have been on Big Bad Barry.”
Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin is favourite to take home the Coleman at $4, while Lions new recruit Brendan Fevola is the next best at $4.50.
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 COLEMAN MEDAL
$4 Lance Franklin
$4.50 Brendan Fevola
$6.50 Barry Hall (in from $17)
$12 Daniel Bradshaw
$14 Jonathan Brown
$15 Matthew Pavlich
$15 Nick Riewoldt
$17 Jarryd Roughead
$21 Kurt Tippett
$26 Marc Lecras
$34 John Anthony
$41 Jason Porplyzia
$41 Justin Koschitzke
$51 James Podsiadly (in from $501)
It might be a bit extreme to think that a first-year recruit will win the medal and upstage some rivals. Podsiadly will certainly be fed some good ball, but Geelong has a long list of goalkickers in its side.
Lance Franklin didn't shine last year, but expect him to be a more likely target for the Hawks this year.
Advice: Wait for three or four rounds into the competition before making a call. The favourites won't firm much, but you'll have a far better idea about who might come from behind to win it.
If Franklin or Fevola kick 10 in their first game, their odds will plummet, but it's far better getting an educated idea on shorter odds than to take a wild punt in the futures market.
PODSIADLY PRICE SLASHED IN COLEMAN MARKET
Following news that Geelong has promoted James Podsiadly to its senior list, online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has trimmed the 28-year-old’s price to win the Coleman Medal in his debut season from $81 to $51.
This follows earlier ‘speccing’ on Podsiadly where one punter had $1000 on the Cat forward to win the Coleman at the astronomical odds of $501 for a potential $500,000 pay day.
“We stand to lose half a million on Podsiadly in one bet, let alone tens of thousands more from punters who backed him at $81 before the announcement of his promotion,” said Lane.
While Podsiadly is the bookie’s worst result, Lane said the biggest plunge had been saved for Western Bulldogs spearhead Barry Hall.
“Barry Hall has been the big firmer in Coleman Medal betting. You could get $17 about him in mid-February, now he’s the third favourite in betting at $6.50,” said Lane.
“Since the NAB Cup Grand Final, four out of every five bets we’ve taken on the Coleman have been on Big Bad Barry.”
Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin is favourite to take home the Coleman at $4, while Lions new recruit Brendan Fevola is the next best at $4.50.
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 COLEMAN MEDAL
$4 Lance Franklin
$4.50 Brendan Fevola
$6.50 Barry Hall (in from $17)
$12 Daniel Bradshaw
$14 Jonathan Brown
$15 Matthew Pavlich
$15 Nick Riewoldt
$17 Jarryd Roughead
$21 Kurt Tippett
$26 Marc Lecras
$34 John Anthony
$41 Jason Porplyzia
$41 Justin Koschitzke
$51 James Podsiadly (in from $501)
NRL comebacks set the trend
Rugby League is fast becoming like horse racing in that it’s more common for the front runner to be overtaken at the line.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
Military Rose run fantastic
Military Rose has shot in more than 5 points with most bookies, and it was on the back of a very impressive run on Saturday.
But you'd swear the Golden Slipper was a two-horse race. If it was, it would seem almost certain that Military Rose has the measure of Solar Charged, and the odds would be warranted.
But now that the favourite has been backed so short, let's be sure to take a look at the other top chances in the field. Forget Star Witness, its run on Saturday was appalling.
Masquerader, however, had a fantastic run. And there are four or five other top chances likely to race this weekend.
My advice: Don't get caught up in the media hype, rather take a deep breath and look at each chance on its merit and form. Military Rose is a good horse and deserves to be the top chance, but 5 points is ridiculous.
MILITARY ROSE NEW SLIPPER FAVOURITE AS FANCY’S FLOP
Military Rose has stamped herself as a dominant Golden Slipper favourite after easily accounting for former favourite, Solar Charged, in the Riesling Stakes.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Magic Millions winning filly’s odds had been slashed too $3.40 and she looked a bullet proof type who would be very hard to beat in the Slipper.
“She is a clear favourite now with the second pick being Crystal Lily who isn’t even nominated yet,” Sullivan said.
“The fillies certainly look to have an edge this year with fairytale horse Chance Bye on the third line of betting.
“Hinchinbrook is the first of the colts and geldings at $9.00 alongside Todman winner Masquerader who is another not nominated at this stage.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged and Star Witness had been the big drifters in Slipper betting following disappointing runs.
“Solar Charged drifted from $4 to $11 and while you wouldn’t write her off, it is hard to see her turning the tables on Military Rose,” Sullivan said.
“Star Witness went from $6.50 to $17 and given he isn’t nominated, it would have to be unlikely for him to pay up now.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.40
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.00
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Masquerader (nn) 9.00
Solar Charged 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 17.00
Star Witness (nn) 17.00
Psychologist 18.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Skilled 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Obsequious 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Needs Further 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Legalistic 51.00
Maules Creek 51.00
Legally 51.00
Eucumbene 51.00
Hautto 51.00
Blue Lotus 51.00
Pressday 51.00
Military Blonde 51.00
Snap Dragons 51.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 51.00
But you'd swear the Golden Slipper was a two-horse race. If it was, it would seem almost certain that Military Rose has the measure of Solar Charged, and the odds would be warranted.
But now that the favourite has been backed so short, let's be sure to take a look at the other top chances in the field. Forget Star Witness, its run on Saturday was appalling.
Masquerader, however, had a fantastic run. And there are four or five other top chances likely to race this weekend.
My advice: Don't get caught up in the media hype, rather take a deep breath and look at each chance on its merit and form. Military Rose is a good horse and deserves to be the top chance, but 5 points is ridiculous.
MILITARY ROSE NEW SLIPPER FAVOURITE AS FANCY’S FLOP
Military Rose has stamped herself as a dominant Golden Slipper favourite after easily accounting for former favourite, Solar Charged, in the Riesling Stakes.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Magic Millions winning filly’s odds had been slashed too $3.40 and she looked a bullet proof type who would be very hard to beat in the Slipper.
“She is a clear favourite now with the second pick being Crystal Lily who isn’t even nominated yet,” Sullivan said.
“The fillies certainly look to have an edge this year with fairytale horse Chance Bye on the third line of betting.
“Hinchinbrook is the first of the colts and geldings at $9.00 alongside Todman winner Masquerader who is another not nominated at this stage.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged and Star Witness had been the big drifters in Slipper betting following disappointing runs.
“Solar Charged drifted from $4 to $11 and while you wouldn’t write her off, it is hard to see her turning the tables on Military Rose,” Sullivan said.
“Star Witness went from $6.50 to $17 and given he isn’t nominated, it would have to be unlikely for him to pay up now.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.40
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.00
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Masquerader (nn) 9.00
Solar Charged 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 17.00
Star Witness (nn) 17.00
Psychologist 18.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Skilled 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Obsequious 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Needs Further 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Legalistic 51.00
Maules Creek 51.00
Legally 51.00
Eucumbene 51.00
Hautto 51.00
Blue Lotus 51.00
Pressday 51.00
Military Blonde 51.00
Snap Dragons 51.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 51.00
Friday, March 19, 2010
NRL St George vs Canterbury
News that Ben Hennant is homesick paints a deeper picture of the Bulldogs' state of mind.
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
South Australian election update
The bookies are all over this election stuff. Not much more I can say about it really:
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
Tasmanian election neck and neck
For those following the Tasmanian election, punters have it a tight battle. In such a situation, an upset is usually on the cards - and a likely change of government.
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
AFL television rights
If it's a flat billion, that makes the 3-1 look juicy. But I'm not into corporate bidding. Perhaps the extra little bit on top helps sway the coverage rights?
AFL BROADCAST RIGHTS - HOW MUCH WILL THEY COST?
Sportingbet Australia punters are betting on how much money the 2012 AFL television broadcast rights will cost the winning bidder.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the winning bid would almost certainly exceed the current $780m deal currently in place and was sure the market would be popular with punters.
“It’s a hot topic and we’ve already had plenty of enquiries from punters,” said Sullivan.
“Everybody has their own opinion on how rich these rights will make the AFL and punters can now back their own judgement.”
Sullivan said the option of between 1 billion and one dollars and 1.1 billion dollars had been installed as a slight $2.50 favourite.
“The talk is that 1 billion dollars is the magic mark so we’re betting there’s a partnership out there prepared to offer a little more in order to make sure,” Sullivan said.
“It’s a little like an auction bid designed to knock opponents out.”
The rights costing more than 1.1 billion dollars is second favourite at $2.75 with between 901 Million and 1 Billion dollars at $3.00.
2012 AFL TELEVISION BROADCAST RIGHTS – WINNING BID AMOUNT
Sportingbet Australia Market
1 Billion And One Dollars To 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.50
More Than 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.75
901 Million Dollars To 1 Billion Dollars 3.00
781 Million Dollars To 900 Million Dollars 26.00
780 Million Dollars Or Less 51.00
AFL BROADCAST RIGHTS - HOW MUCH WILL THEY COST?
Sportingbet Australia punters are betting on how much money the 2012 AFL television broadcast rights will cost the winning bidder.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the winning bid would almost certainly exceed the current $780m deal currently in place and was sure the market would be popular with punters.
“It’s a hot topic and we’ve already had plenty of enquiries from punters,” said Sullivan.
“Everybody has their own opinion on how rich these rights will make the AFL and punters can now back their own judgement.”
Sullivan said the option of between 1 billion and one dollars and 1.1 billion dollars had been installed as a slight $2.50 favourite.
“The talk is that 1 billion dollars is the magic mark so we’re betting there’s a partnership out there prepared to offer a little more in order to make sure,” Sullivan said.
“It’s a little like an auction bid designed to knock opponents out.”
The rights costing more than 1.1 billion dollars is second favourite at $2.75 with between 901 Million and 1 Billion dollars at $3.00.
2012 AFL TELEVISION BROADCAST RIGHTS – WINNING BID AMOUNT
Sportingbet Australia Market
1 Billion And One Dollars To 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.50
More Than 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.75
901 Million Dollars To 1 Billion Dollars 3.00
781 Million Dollars To 900 Million Dollars 26.00
780 Million Dollars Or Less 51.00
South Australian election
The power of incumbency can never be under-estimated:
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
Animals to watch this weekend
Here are a few animals to watch this weekend, tips courtesy of TAB in New South Wales:
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 19th March
Harold Park Race 3 - 8.00pm
No. 4 Ben Junior
Saturday 20th March
Rosehill Race 7 - 4.10pm
No.7 - Lady Lynette
Saturday 20th March
Wentworth Park Race 2 - 7.48pm
No.6 - Lochinvar Marlow
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 19th March
Harold Park Race 3 - 8.00pm
No. 4 Ben Junior
Saturday 20th March
Rosehill Race 7 - 4.10pm
No.7 - Lady Lynette
Saturday 20th March
Wentworth Park Race 2 - 7.48pm
No.6 - Lochinvar Marlow
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Kevin Rudd to lose leadership
Kevin Rudd might be stumbling a little more than he expects at the polls, but it's not enough to get carried away with.
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
Who will win the Archibald Prize?
I can't say it's something I know an awful lot about, I'm more of an "I don't know much about art, but I know what I like" sort of person. But it's an interesting market to gaze over nevertheless - the Archibald Prize.
REDDY FAVOURITE FOR SECOND ARCHIE
A portrait of Northern Territory filmmaker Warwick Thornton by former winner Craig Reddy has been installed as the favourite for the 2010 Archibald Prize at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s field looked to be very open with many first time finalists but the portrait of Thornton seemed to attract the eye of many experts who had seen the exhibition.
“We have made Craig Ruddy favourite at $8.00 as the portrait has a lot of presence and he is a past winner with his portrait of David Gulpilil in 2004,” Sullivan said.
“The fact this portrait is quite similar to his 2004 winner could count against him though.”
Sportingbet have the Ian Smith portrait of 1984 Archie winner Keith Looby as second pick at $11 with 2005 and 2006 finalist Jasper Knight third favourite at $12.
“The portraits by Ian Smith and Jasper Knight are the type of paintings that have been successful in the Archibald’s in recent year and look certain contenders,” Sullivan said.
“The Packer’s prize winner, Nafisa’s portrait of Glen A Baker is also well in the market at $16 but it would have to break the trend of the Packer’s prize never having won the Archie.”
2010 Archibald Prize
Sportingbet Australia Market
Craig Ruddy - The Prince of Darkness - Warwick Thornton 8.00
Ian Smith - Keith Looby Alfresco 11.00
Jasper Knight - Bill Wright AM 12.00
Apple Yin - The Previous Life 14.00
Adam Chang - Two Eyes - Closing To Open (Simeon Kronenberg) 16.00
McLean Edwards - Tim Storrier 16.00
Khue Nguyen - Unleashed 16.00
Rodney Pople - Stelarc Triptych 16.00
Nafisa - Glenn in Black & White 16.00
Chi Kordelya - Mr Walker 18.00
Sam Leach - Tim Minchin 18.00
Nick Stathopoulos - The Bequest 18.00
Kevin Connor - Self Portrait 21.00
Peter Clifton Kendall - Underdog 21.00
Pobert Malherbe - The squire - portrait of Luke Sciberras 21.00
Victor Rubin - John Olsen - A Diptych - Part I Seated: Part II in his Bath 21.00
Greg Somers - Self Portrait with the Picture of Dory in Frey 21.00
Nigel Milsom - Adam Cullen (Bird as Prophet) 21.00
Adam Cullen - Gareth at the Country Fair 23.00
Paul Newton - Self portrait #2 – Dark Night of the Soul 23.00
Marc de Jong - Janice Petersen 26.00
Robert Hannaford - Malcolm Fraser 26.00
Paul Ryan - Danie Mellor, True Blue Country 26.00
Peter Smeeth - Peter FitzSimons, author 26.00
James Money - The Lord Mayor of Melbourne 26.00
Kate Beynon - Self Portrait with Guardian Spirits 31.00
Cherry Hood - Michael Zavros 31.00
Alexander McKenzie - Andrew Upton 31.00
Martin Ball - Jacqueline Fahey 34.00
Dean, Shane & Reilly Bowden - I Wake up with Today! 34.00
Christine OHagan - Kate Ceberano 34.00
I Wang - Bishop Elliott and Lady Jacqueline 34.00
Giles Alexander - The alternative ambassadors 41.00
Carla Fletcher - CW Stoneking 41.00
REDDY FAVOURITE FOR SECOND ARCHIE
A portrait of Northern Territory filmmaker Warwick Thornton by former winner Craig Reddy has been installed as the favourite for the 2010 Archibald Prize at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s field looked to be very open with many first time finalists but the portrait of Thornton seemed to attract the eye of many experts who had seen the exhibition.
“We have made Craig Ruddy favourite at $8.00 as the portrait has a lot of presence and he is a past winner with his portrait of David Gulpilil in 2004,” Sullivan said.
“The fact this portrait is quite similar to his 2004 winner could count against him though.”
Sportingbet have the Ian Smith portrait of 1984 Archie winner Keith Looby as second pick at $11 with 2005 and 2006 finalist Jasper Knight third favourite at $12.
“The portraits by Ian Smith and Jasper Knight are the type of paintings that have been successful in the Archibald’s in recent year and look certain contenders,” Sullivan said.
“The Packer’s prize winner, Nafisa’s portrait of Glen A Baker is also well in the market at $16 but it would have to break the trend of the Packer’s prize never having won the Archie.”
2010 Archibald Prize
Sportingbet Australia Market
Craig Ruddy - The Prince of Darkness - Warwick Thornton 8.00
Ian Smith - Keith Looby Alfresco 11.00
Jasper Knight - Bill Wright AM 12.00
Apple Yin - The Previous Life 14.00
Adam Chang - Two Eyes - Closing To Open (Simeon Kronenberg) 16.00
McLean Edwards - Tim Storrier 16.00
Khue Nguyen - Unleashed 16.00
Rodney Pople - Stelarc Triptych 16.00
Nafisa - Glenn in Black & White 16.00
Chi Kordelya - Mr Walker 18.00
Sam Leach - Tim Minchin 18.00
Nick Stathopoulos - The Bequest 18.00
Kevin Connor - Self Portrait 21.00
Peter Clifton Kendall - Underdog 21.00
Pobert Malherbe - The squire - portrait of Luke Sciberras 21.00
Victor Rubin - John Olsen - A Diptych - Part I Seated: Part II in his Bath 21.00
Greg Somers - Self Portrait with the Picture of Dory in Frey 21.00
Nigel Milsom - Adam Cullen (Bird as Prophet) 21.00
Adam Cullen - Gareth at the Country Fair 23.00
Paul Newton - Self portrait #2 – Dark Night of the Soul 23.00
Marc de Jong - Janice Petersen 26.00
Robert Hannaford - Malcolm Fraser 26.00
Paul Ryan - Danie Mellor, True Blue Country 26.00
Peter Smeeth - Peter FitzSimons, author 26.00
James Money - The Lord Mayor of Melbourne 26.00
Kate Beynon - Self Portrait with Guardian Spirits 31.00
Cherry Hood - Michael Zavros 31.00
Alexander McKenzie - Andrew Upton 31.00
Martin Ball - Jacqueline Fahey 34.00
Dean, Shane & Reilly Bowden - I Wake up with Today! 34.00
Christine OHagan - Kate Ceberano 34.00
I Wang - Bishop Elliott and Lady Jacqueline 34.00
Giles Alexander - The alternative ambassadors 41.00
Carla Fletcher - CW Stoneking 41.00
WAFL betting markets
I haven't seen too much information on the WAFL, but for those who are interested, this might prove interesting:
SOUTH FREMANTLE FAVOURITES TO OPEN AND CLOSE 2010 WITH A WIN
Last season Premiers South Fremantle are favourites to open their Premiership defence with a win over East Perth and make it make it back to back Premierships after leading on-line bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au. was first to release betting markets for 2010.
“The Bulldogs are the benchmark and we expect them to come out barking against the Royals” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Matthew Campbell.
In other Round 1 matches, the Swans are slight favourites over the Falcons while the Tigers and the Sharks are expected to take the points.
In Premiership betting, the Swans and the Tigers are just behind the Bulldogs in the betting while perennial Grand Finalists, Subiaco are next at $7.00.
WAFL Round 1
South Fremantle $1.50
East Perth $2.55
West Perth $2.05
Swan Districts $1.75
Peel Thunder $6.00
Claremont $1.12
Perth $2.55
East Fremantle $1.50
WAFL Premiership 2010
South Fremantle $3.50
Swan Districts $4.00
Claremont $4.50
Subiaco $7.00
East Perth $8.50
West Perth $14.00
East Fremantle $16.00
Perth $26.00
Peel Thunder $51.00
SOUTH FREMANTLE FAVOURITES TO OPEN AND CLOSE 2010 WITH A WIN
Last season Premiers South Fremantle are favourites to open their Premiership defence with a win over East Perth and make it make it back to back Premierships after leading on-line bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au. was first to release betting markets for 2010.
“The Bulldogs are the benchmark and we expect them to come out barking against the Royals” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Matthew Campbell.
In other Round 1 matches, the Swans are slight favourites over the Falcons while the Tigers and the Sharks are expected to take the points.
In Premiership betting, the Swans and the Tigers are just behind the Bulldogs in the betting while perennial Grand Finalists, Subiaco are next at $7.00.
WAFL Round 1
South Fremantle $1.50
East Perth $2.55
West Perth $2.05
Swan Districts $1.75
Peel Thunder $6.00
Claremont $1.12
Perth $2.55
East Fremantle $1.50
WAFL Premiership 2010
South Fremantle $3.50
Swan Districts $4.00
Claremont $4.50
Subiaco $7.00
East Perth $8.50
West Perth $14.00
East Fremantle $16.00
Perth $26.00
Peel Thunder $51.00
NRL Manly vs Parramatta specials
Parramatta will be specials this weekend against an under-manned Manly outfit. The Eels are one of the few sides who will be able to match it with the Manly forwards, but their backline spearheaded by Hayne at fullback and Tahu in the centres look likely to be too strong.
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
Tiger Woods favourite for Masters
Bookies have been quick this morning to place Tiger Woods at the top of their lines for the Masters. They would have lost a heap to those willing to back that Woods would return for the event. Now, it seems, they'll be willing to take him on against a strong field.
Woods will no doubt be keen to get back on the golf course, and if he can make the cut, he's as good a chance as any to take out the tournament. Anybody who's played much sport will dismiss any theory that he might be a bit rusty. All the psychology will be firmly in his favour.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
GOLF: TIGER INSTALLED FAVOURITE FOR US MASTERS
Tiger Woods has been instantly installed as favourite for the US Masters after announcing he would return to golf at Augusta in April.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Woods’ dominance over the past decade meant he had to be favourite despite being out of the game for months.
“We are posting Tiger as a $4.50 favourite for the Masters and I am sure punters will be keen to back him,” Sullivan said.
“Woods was a $3.00 favourite for last year’s Masters so the time out has had an effect on his price.
“Tiger has the biggest following of any sportsmen among punters because he has looked after them so many times in the past and I am sure they will back him here.
“There is no doubt he will start the tournament as favourite and it would be a brave man to say he couldn’t win.”
Woods will no doubt be keen to get back on the golf course, and if he can make the cut, he's as good a chance as any to take out the tournament. Anybody who's played much sport will dismiss any theory that he might be a bit rusty. All the psychology will be firmly in his favour.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
GOLF: TIGER INSTALLED FAVOURITE FOR US MASTERS
Tiger Woods has been instantly installed as favourite for the US Masters after announcing he would return to golf at Augusta in April.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Woods’ dominance over the past decade meant he had to be favourite despite being out of the game for months.
“We are posting Tiger as a $4.50 favourite for the Masters and I am sure punters will be keen to back him,” Sullivan said.
“Woods was a $3.00 favourite for last year’s Masters so the time out has had an effect on his price.
“Tiger has the biggest following of any sportsmen among punters because he has looked after them so many times in the past and I am sure they will back him here.
“There is no doubt he will start the tournament as favourite and it would be a brave man to say he couldn’t win.”
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Golden Slipper attracts Star Witness
There has been a lot of publicity and talk about Star Witness in the media lately. The horse cost $150,000 and is now worth in excess of $6 million - a good investment by any standards.
But it is open to debate whether the publicity is leading to the betting plunge, or actual ability of the horse. No doubt it is a quality nag. History will tell whether it's worth following the punters though.
BIG SLIPPER PLUNGE ON STAR WITNESS
Blue Diamond winner Star Witness has been the subject of a betting plunge shortening from $10 to $6.50 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had taken bets to take out over $250,000 on the colt and he was now his worst result for the Slipper.
“We took two bets of $90,000 to $10,000 and we took another bet of $5000 as the price tumbled in as well,” Sullivan said.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since connections changed their mind about coming to Sydney.
“His Blue Diamond win was outstanding and with the pace sure to be on in the Slipper, his pattern of sitting off the speed should suit.”
Sullivan said punters were looking away from the Sydney form at the moment.
“We have been best price Beneteau and Chance Bye who look to have the some of the best Sydney form away from Solar Charged and we can’t find a punter to back them.
“Magic Millions winner Military Rose has been the other runner they have come for in the last week with bets to take out over $50,000 arriving for her.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 6.50
Crystal Lily (nn) 7.50
Military Rose 11.00
Chance Bye 13.00
Elimbari 13.00
Beneteau 13.00
Hinchinbrook 13.00
Zutara 13.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Psychologist 17.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Divorces 26.00
Skilled 31.00
Brightexpectations 31.00
Hiatus 35.00
Maules Creek 35.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Evidentia 35.00
Intertidal 35.00
But it is open to debate whether the publicity is leading to the betting plunge, or actual ability of the horse. No doubt it is a quality nag. History will tell whether it's worth following the punters though.
BIG SLIPPER PLUNGE ON STAR WITNESS
Blue Diamond winner Star Witness has been the subject of a betting plunge shortening from $10 to $6.50 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had taken bets to take out over $250,000 on the colt and he was now his worst result for the Slipper.
“We took two bets of $90,000 to $10,000 and we took another bet of $5000 as the price tumbled in as well,” Sullivan said.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since connections changed their mind about coming to Sydney.
“His Blue Diamond win was outstanding and with the pace sure to be on in the Slipper, his pattern of sitting off the speed should suit.”
Sullivan said punters were looking away from the Sydney form at the moment.
“We have been best price Beneteau and Chance Bye who look to have the some of the best Sydney form away from Solar Charged and we can’t find a punter to back them.
“Magic Millions winner Military Rose has been the other runner they have come for in the last week with bets to take out over $50,000 arriving for her.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 6.50
Crystal Lily (nn) 7.50
Military Rose 11.00
Chance Bye 13.00
Elimbari 13.00
Beneteau 13.00
Hinchinbrook 13.00
Zutara 13.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Psychologist 17.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Divorces 26.00
Skilled 31.00
Brightexpectations 31.00
Hiatus 35.00
Maules Creek 35.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Evidentia 35.00
Intertidal 35.00
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
