Thursday, April 1, 2010

Brisbane vs Carlton preview and dream team predictions

Fantasy markets have been drawn for tonight’s Carlton vs Brisbane game in Brisbane. They’ve been cunningly presented by the bookmakers, but that’s the idea.

There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.

Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo

Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.

Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.

Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark

This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.

Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.

Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman

Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.

Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.

Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.

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