NRL comebacks set the trend

Rugby League is fast becoming like horse racing in that it’s more common for the front runner to be overtaken at the line.

There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.

Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.

This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.

The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.

Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.

And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.

If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.

If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.

At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.

So far this season, it’s happened half the time.

And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.

I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.