Big bet for Allez Wonder in Caulfield Cup

The odds of Bart Cummings winning a seventh Caulfield Cup have shortened dramatically in the last 24 hours as punters have backed all three of his chances at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Toorak winner Allez Wonder had shortened from $14 to $11 as big money arrived while Viewed and Roman Emperor had also been well backed.

“Allez Wonder has attracted the bulk of support including one bet of $130,000 to $10,000,” said Sullivan.

“But there’s also been good money for both Viewed and Roman Emperor at double figure odds.

“Bart is the Cups king and punters think can break his Caulfield Cup drought tomorrow.”

Sportingbet Australia is also offering a market on whether or not either Anthony or Bart Cummings will supply a placegetter with punters backing the yes option in from $2.00 into $1.90.

“It may be a dozen years since the Cummings name has figured on the honour roll of placegetters but punters are certainly confident that between them they can end the drought this year,” Sullivan said.

Randwick longshot well backed

Punters have sensationally backed former South African galloper Seventh Rock to win tomorrow’s Lightning Handicap at Randwick.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some spirited betting had forced the price of the entire from $61 to $21.

“We had one punter back it to win $10,000 as soon as markets opened and it’s been a steady stream since.”

“While the horse may have been disappointing since hitting our shores, there was merit in his last run and reports are strong that David Payne has turned this bloke around.”

The Alan Denham trained Youthful Jack is Sportingbet Australia’s Lightning Handicap favourite at $3.50.

Haydn Lane this week's guest tipster

IASbet public relations manager Haydn Lane might be best known for having his finger on the pulse in AFL circles.

And he's certainly promised to share some winners with aussiepunt readers when next season rolls around.

Haydn's also a pretty handy cricketer, having spent a season batting and tweaking off-spinners at Middlesex, and another as Boston Cricket Club's overseas pro in the Lincolnshire Premier League. Locally, he plays for Melbourne CC and has trained with the Victorian squad.

But that's all behind us. What is more to the point is that we happen to know Haydn has some pretty good connections with the nags. He's owned a few and will no doubt be seen burrowing around Caulfield tomorrow.

He knows he's under immense pressure this week, following in the footsteps of three Friday guest tipsters who've each put us in the black.

"I'll have to do some digging then," he said, perhaps a little nervously. And dig he did, hassling a few of the racing gurus in the betting pit.

Here's Haydn's three picks for the weekend:

Caulfield, Race 4: Number 2, Shamoline Warrior (currently paying $3.60).

Caulfield, Race 9: Number 4, First Command (currently paying $3.40).
Haydn says he's very keen on this one.

Australian Moto GP: Jorge Lorenzo (currently at $3)
Haydn says to back Lorenzo straight out as he's been in super form. That advice comes despite Casey Stoner's return from injury.

As always, we'll be riding with our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll (now at $260) on each of Haydn's selections. At those odds, we'll be taking the horses to cross the line first.

If you're looking for an each way punt on the Caulfield Cup, Haydn suggests Viewed each way at $14 is worth a shot, and Master O'Reilly to run a big race from a wide barrier.

Daffodil a serious Caulfield Cup hope

Following is an unedited statement released by IASbet this morning. This isn't our Friday guest tipster spot, but might well be worth a serious look:

While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.

"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.

"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.

"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."

Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.

From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.

For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.

No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.

However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.

"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."

Cima de Triomphe gets Caulfield Cup support

Just as we release a report that punters are going for Kirklees, Centrebet puts out a release saying Cima de Triomphe has claims.

Here's the release:

Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!

The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.

Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.

Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.

“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.

The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.

The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.

One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.

And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.

Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.

CAULFIELD CUP

$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)

Latest Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets

Kirklees trainers were last night gloating about their horse's chances in the Caulfield Cup, particularly when they got a favourable barrier draw.

The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:

KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS

European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.

“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.

“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”

Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.

2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00

2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus

November 9 WSOP final table form guide

World Series of Poker
November 9 final table

Not too many bookies are taking odds on the WSOP final table as yet, but there's plenty of interest in those who are. And it's an interesting mix of chip counts and personalities who will mix it up for the $8.5 million first prize.

Here's our assessments:

Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips)
Sportsbet $3.50; Luxbet $3.80; Betway $3.75
The 45-year-old logging company owner is remarkably one of the oldest at the final table. He is also massive chip leader which is the primary reason for his favouritism. He has more than a quarter of all chips at the table, and has been proud of the fact that he hasn’t yet had to commit all his chips to a showdown. That's right. Not one all in bet in eight days of play.
Despite playing poker at the young age of 12 with his grandfather, Moon only discovered Texas holdem three years ago, which many would see as a disadvantage under the pressure of a final table, television lights, crowds and all that goes with it.
He made the main event after entering a $130 buy in tournament at Wheeling, West Virginia. Not a bad investment for someone who wanted to play poker to help raise money for local fire halls and other charities.
He puts his success so far down to “good cards” … a humble assessment.
Not only will Moon start the bookie’s favourite. He will also take some sentimental support with him into the final days of play. He is certainly well placed.

Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $4.75; Luxbet $5.25; Betway $5
The 29-year-old New Yorker has been a professional poker player for the best part of nine years and goes into the final in a terrific position, albeit more than 20 million behind the chip leader.
Buchman is familiar with big tournament environments, having won the 2004 New England Poker Classic, and run second in three WSOP bracelet events. But therein lies the worry for punters. Buchman seems to have trouble finishing off the job. He's also had 10 WSOP cashes.
Without progressing further, the final table will be the biggest earnings of his career, more than doubling his $900,000 or so earnings on the tour so far.
Buchman had his moment of luck on day 7 when he risked all his chips with A-10 of hearts against pocket jacks. He hit the flush to double up to 6 million chips.
Buchman is an accomplished player, but will a line of runners up finishes come back to haunt him if he finds himself heads up?

Phil Ivey (9,765,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $6
This is where the quality of the player and the number of chips starts to mess with punters' heads. Phil Ivey is regarded by most as the best poker player in the world. But he sits 7th in chip stack at the start of the final table, which is something which does not necessarily suit his aggressive style of play.
If anyone can change up to suit the conditions, it's Ivey, and that's why there is money for him to win the event from well behind.
Ivey has seven WSOP bracelets already to his name, and if he's in the final three - regardless of chip stack - you'd back him to win.
All others at the final table will fear his presence, and they will be aware of his uncanny ability to read his opposition.
But chip stack is a worry and even a player of his supreme calibre will need a little luck from where he sits.

Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6; Betway $7
As senior principal of investment broker Flexpoint Ford, this New Yorker has premium business pedigree. And he'll start the final table with a healthy chip stack, plenty of confidence, and a crowd of support behind him.
Like Buchman, his moment of luck came on day 7 when he pushed all in with A-Q against pocket kings. The ace hit on the turn which led to a 10 million chip swing.
Remarkably, Begleiter won his seat in a home game, which means he'll be splitting his winnings with friends of that game. They'll each pocket a percentage of the winnings, and will likely be a vocal part of the crowd at the main event finish.
He's already made his way through 6485 opponents to make the final table, and if business acumen can be applied to poker, he'll be a genuine chance.
But the question mark here is whether brains can overcome street smarts when it comes to buckling in to pressure poker. After all, we're essentially talking about a home game player.
With that in mind, even the 7-1 at Betway is a little tight, regardless of Begleiter's chip stack.

Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips)
Sportsbet $7; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $7
The CardPlayer Magazine editor, 34, has a point to prove, and if determination to win the World Series counts for anything, Shulman will be right up there in the finish.
Opposition magazine Bluff was given the rights to sponsor the event, and Shulman has voiced his "lack of respect" for the WSOP management "and what they've done to all of the players". He has said he might throw away his bracelet if he wins the event. Them's fighting words!
They say there's no place for anger at the poker table, but Shulman is a seasoned professional, having already made a final table in 2000 when he cashed in for $146,000. It's nothing like the $1.2 million guaranteed for ninth place finish at this year's event, but the experience will count when it comes to coping with final table pressure.
Further in his favour, Phil Hellmuth is coaching Shulman in the months leading up to the event, no doubt pocketing a percentage of the winnings for his services.
However, Shulman's experience is below that of Buchman, career earnings of about $400,000 well below Buchman, and his starting chip stack about 10 million below Buchman.
While "justice" might be his objective, the odds are perhaps a little under where they should be.

Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $15; Betway $13
From Coral Springs, Florida, this 51-year-old man is a value bet at the final table. At $17, we only need to look at his recent form which have led to his $640,000+ in poker earnings to believe he is a chance to win.
Schaffel is yet to win a bracelet, but he's come close, finishing second in the Legends of Poker event in August this year.
The father of two sits in sixth spot and has some nasty opposition to leapfrog.
Like all those around him, he'll need some luck. But the odds are not indicative of his pedigree as a poker player.

Joe Cada (13,215,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $12; Betway $13
The youngest man in the field aims to repeat the efforts of another 21-year-old Peter Eastgate. What would be the chances of that? Two 21-year-olds in successive years, both breaking a record Phil Hellmuth held for 24 years as the youngest ever world champion.
Cada cashed twice in tournaments leading up to the main event and has proven an established young player.
He sits neatly in the middle of the pack and could make his mark on the chip leaders with a little luck on the first day of the final table.
He's already showed during the tournament that he's happy to be aggressive, re-raising Phil Ivey and causing him to fold several times before the final table.
He won't be scared off and could have been even better placed if his aces hadn't been cracked by 10s on Day 8. Cada is a wildcard and might be worth a gentle punt at the odds of $17.

James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $21
In terms of recent form, the 26-year-old British poker professional is perhaps the most highly credentialled at the table. But his chip stack is the problem. He starts November 9 in 9th place and will need some luck in the running to make good from there.
But in percentage terms, he's not much worse off than anybody up to double his own chip stack, but the danger lies in that an all-in bet against anybody else at the table puts his tournament life at risk.
He finished 4th in the 2008 UK Open, came runner up in the same year at a WSOP bracelet event and in 2007 won a $1000 buy in event during the Bellagio Cup. He is sponsored and, winnings included, very well paid.
If he had twice the chips, he'd be half his current odds. In poker terms, that's just one fortunate hand away.
He might not win the event, but he's one player who is priced over the odds.

Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $19
The Frenchman is the second European at the table and the rank outsider to win the event. He is similarly short-stacked alongside Phil Ivey and will need some luck to get himself back into the tournament.
But he's showed his final table appearance is more than luck with a final table appearance in the Europe Main Event earlier this month.
He played to the left of Ivey for the last three days of the WSOP main event, so position won't worry him. Saout has only been playing poker for about 18 months, so it is no wonder punters are doubting his ability to bust through far more experienced opponents.

Whobegotyou firms after Maldivian ruled out of Cox Plate

Below is a media statement released today by Sportingbet Australia:

WHOBEGOTYOU FIRMS AS MALDIVIAN RULED OUT

The Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou has firmed into $2.50 to win the Cox Plate following the news that stablemate Maldivian has been ruled out of the remainder of the Spring Carnival.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Maldivian looked to be Whobegotyou’s biggest rival.

“Whobegotyou has shortened from $3.00 to $2.60 following the news of Maldivian’s unfortunate injury,” Sullivan said.

“Whobegotyou is short enough a couple of weeks out from the race and we will be looking to lay him now despite his tremendous record at the Valley.

“But punters were already considering it a match race and there don’t look to many challenges to Whobegotyou as the heir to the title of Australia’s weight for age champion.”


2009 COX PLATE – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 2.60
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
El Segundo 10.00
Predatory Pricer 10.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Black Piranha 17.00
Efficient 19.00
So You Think 21.00
Zipping 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
Red Ruler 31.00
Viewed 35.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Kirklees 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Cest La Guerre 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 51.00
Extra Zero 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Roman Emperor 81.00
Zarita 81.00
Trusting 81.00
Gallica 151.00
Sarrera 151.00
Magical Pearl 151.00
Chasm 251.00
Mentality 301.00
Douro Valley 301.00
Prima Nova 301.00
Sir Slick 301.00
Sound Of Nature 301.00

WA favoured in Sheffield Shield opener

We'll be backing Western Australia to get more points against Queensland in today's opening Sheffield Shield cricket encounter.

Queensland's bowling attack seems to lack depth, and batting has at times seemed fragile. James Hopes out of the side will be a huge loss.

Western Australia however is stacked with Australian fringe players including Adam Voges, Sean Marsh and captain Marcus North. Former Bull Ashley Noffke is a huge bonus and with Magoffin and Dorey should be able to bowl the Bulls out twice.

The $1.50 on WA for mine is worth taking and we'll be putting 10% of our bankroll on that result.

Guest tipster comes good three weeks running

The Aussiepunt bankroll took yet another boost at the weekend thanks to the tips of our guest punter.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan's tips didn't have quite the same impact as those of Matt Campbell and Grant Stockwell before him, but a win's a win and we'll take 16% into the black any day.

Let's take a quick look back at his tips:

It was a bad start with Marquardt in the third at Caulfield. With Bowman on board and a good record starting fresh, the Kiwi galloper came in sharply in the dying minutes before the race, starting second favourite. But racing three and four wide for most of the race, there was no gas in the tank for the finish we needed. No joy for punters there.

Tootsie in the ninth, however, was every chance. Had it not been for the late charge from a 30-1 shot, we'd have been more in the money. But $2.70 for a place meant we weren't in a total disaster area.

A draw in the soccer saved our bacon. Here's a reminder of what Sullivan said: "The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents."

"Hold out" is the key part of this phrase. We were lucky, but we'll take it all the same.

With the Spring Carnival heating up, we'll try to keep you up with market movements, particularly for the Caulfield Cup, as the week progresses.

Joe Hockey firms as Liberal leader

Here's a statement put out today by Sportingbet Australia:

Punters are swarming to Opposition leadership contender Joe Hockey, causing his odds to shorten dramatically from $3.00 to $2.35 to lead the Coalition to the next federal election.

In the midst of intense media speculation, precipitated by the admission by Hockey that he had been ‘tapped on the shoulder’ to lead the party, Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have slumped to $2.00.

While Hockey is considered unwilling to mount a challenge and Turnbull is said to be determined to hold onto the leadership, the decision is widely considered to be out of their hands.

The Coalition party room, heavily divided over the forthcoming emissions trading debate, looks set to decide the issue sooner rather than later; creating a degree of uncertainty for punters.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Opposition leadership market was hotting up, with Hockey attracting strong betting from punters.

“All the betting is with Hockey at the moment which would reflect his newfound status of leader-elect,” said Mr Sullivan.

“However despite the media being full of obituaries for Turnbull today, he remains short at $2.00 which suggests that this may not be over yet.

“Punters aren’t entirely willing to second guess the Coalition party room, which could do anything – or nothing.”

A third leadership option in Tony Abbott, who has also shortened dramatically in recent times, despite being widely dismissed by commentators as unelectable, brings up the rear at $4.25.

Meanwhile other leadership contenders in Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21) have been overtaken by punters backing ‘Any Other’ at $13.00.

FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Turnbull $2.00
Hockey $2.35
Abbott $4.25
Robb $17.00
Dutton $21.00
Bishop $21.00
Any Other $13.00

Michael Sullivan is Friday guest tipster

Leading corporate bookmaker Michael Sullivan isn't shy when it comes to letting people know what he thinks.

As recently as July, he defended himself against NSW Racing after he and other interstate bookies were blamed for a $3 million shortfall in prize money.

Sportingbet sponsors Victorian Racing to the tune of about $3 million a year, but is not given the same sponsorship lattitude in New South Wales.

What happens in the board room might be important to the final outcome of racing. But as punters, we're pretty narrow minded. As long as there's a race, we're happy.

And we're happy to take the superior odds from corporate bookmakers any day. One man who knows all about those odds is the punter who took on a fearless Michael Sullivan to the tune of $5 million on Lonhro winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2004.

We can only hope Michael sent a bottle of his finest to the connections of eventual race winner Grand Armee.

In between fighting the good fight and counting the beans, however, Michael has found time to give Aussiepunt followers a few tips for the weekend.

So here's how we shape up, thanks to Michael Sullivan:

Caulfield race 9: Horse 9, Tootsie. Michael's comments: Has a wide draw to overcome but will strip much fitter for two runs in Melbourne. Class Kiwi galloper who looks very tough to beat with luck in running.

Caulfield Race 3: Horse 10, Marquardt. Michael's comments: Goes well fresh and has the services of Bowman. Is over the odds and likely to be right in the finish.

Soccer: Australia v Netherlands: Draw. Michael's comments: The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents.

As usual at Aussiepunt, we'll be following our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll on each of his tips. We're sorry Michael, but at present our bankroll sits with an opposition bookie. We will, however, be happy to take their money!

We'll be riding Tootsie and Marquardt at each way odds. And a neat $25 on a draw in the soccer.

AFL trade news link

This is the best tracker of trade news I've seen for the AFL, as done by afl.com.au:

http://www.afl.com.au/offseason/tradewindsblog/tabid/15020/Default.aspx

Spring Racing Carnival tipping competition

One thing bookmaker Sportsbet seems to do quite well is its tipping competitions.


Bookies are often looking for the edge when it comes to retaining a loyal audience, and Sportsbet's footy tipping competitions for both league and AFL were well organised.


For those interested, they've not got a spring racing carnival tipping competition under way.


My understanding is you don't have to lodge a bet, nor hold an account with Sportsbet to enter. But there are $85,000 worth of cash and other prizes up for grabs.


First prize is a luxury trip for two to Malaysia. Tipping starts for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday October 17.


There is also a "Fantasy Stable" Competition which kicks off with the Caulfield Guineas tomorrow.


All terms and conditions are on on the Sportsbet website: www.sportsbet.com.au

Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement

As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"

I'd reckon the market has got it about right.

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:

The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.

“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.

“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”


2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00

Hey Hey vs Masterchef

It's often been said that if you want a good guide for social trends. If that's the case, advertisers should be running to Channel 9 tonight for the second and final Hey Hey It's Saturday (on Wednesday) reunion.

With Sportingbet Australia, it's slipped into $1.05 to top the ratings, and as a friend used to say regularly: "It's better than bank interest."

The reunion show goes head to head with Celebrity Masterchef, and it's unlikely even the attraction of lovely former Hi 5 singer Kathleen de Leon deep-frying a spatchcock will help the cooking show outrate Dickie Knee and Plucka.

So what were bookies thinking when they opened the market at $1.30? Did they think a taped version of old hacks in the kitchen would struggle against the uncertainty of live television? I'm just dirty I didn't get a piece of it.

Regardless, real value comes in the ratings: Hey Hey's first show roped in 2.169 million viewers. You'll get $1.95 for it to top the 2 million mark again, and $1.85 if you think enough people have had a gutfull enough to peg it back to under 2 million.

Maybe the de Leon spatchcock factor will have something to do with that?

You'll get $1.85 if you think Celebrity Masterchef will top 1.4 million viewers and $1.95 if you think it'll fall below that figure.

Expect Hey Hey to drop off a little, but whether that translates to Kathleen de Leon (er, Masterchef) remains on a knife-edge.

Take the 5% interest if you wish, but the exact figures will be tough to call.

Australian Idol form guide: Top 8

I started this, so I guess I'd better keep it up.


This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.


Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.

After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.

The form:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.45; Sportingbet $2.75; Betfair $2.94

He's been the favourite all along but after he messed up his song last week, there's some value floating around, especially with Betfair which is offering a nice dividend. He'll bounce back and is highly favoured to be in the top three at the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $3.25; Sportingbet $3; Betfair $4

Hayley is emerging as the biggest threat to Stan and that's reflected in the odds. She's come in from $21 before the final 12 was chosen to almost unbackable odds. Her personality is contagious and she's improving as the weeks go by. She's likely to be the girls' best hope.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $8; Sportingbet $6.50; Betfair $14

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Wingham boy is the idol darkhorse and is not taking too many risks with his odds, particularly seeing that other agencies are offering more than double the $6.50 on offer with Sullivan. "While there is no doubt that Stan Walker and Hayley are worthy favourites, James is looking the most likely outside this pair," he says.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $7; Sportingbet $7; Betfair $7.80

Nathan has consistently been around the $6-7 mark and continues to hover as an outside threat to the top two. The boy can sing and he's shaken off Dicko's "gay" tag with admirable grace. We've tipped him to outlast Kim Cooper who was outstanding last week. It's tough to predict how he'll resonate with voters, so it's a week-to-week prospect from here on in.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8.50; Sportingbet $8; Betfair $23

Wow. What's with the $23 at Betfair? Kim was bottom three two weeks in a row and scraped through. But she's lifted her game to a standard many thought she was capable of in early rounds of the betting. Like Nathan, it's a week-to-week prospect from the North Queenslander.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $10; Sportingbet $10; Betfair $7.80

The brickie was an early favourite, but has lost plenty of favour with punters. There's still plenty of money being held by the bookies for this Aussie battler, but his lack of experience is starting to let him down a bit as he's exposed by more-accomplished performers.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $14; Sportingbet $13; Betfair $23

Still the dark horse for mine. His humble approach wins him plenty of favour, but he'll need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat if he's to outlast the majority of the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $12; Sportingbet $14; Betfair $16.50

It's remarkable that someone who hasn't yet appeared in the bottom three can be regarded the rank outsider with the bookies. Her personality is dragging her through the competition and if she can now pull out something special, her odds might again drop. But it's unlikely she can take the title. Each way odds might be the best option for Kate.

AFL trade updates: Bad boys cause market waves

It seems the bad boys are making all the waves in the AFL trade wars - Hall, Fevola and Brown leading the way.

Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.

Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.

No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.

Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx

Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.

"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.

Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.

Big bet on Rudd confidence today

I'm not sure what term deposit accounts pay over 12 months, but I'm pretty sure it's not more than the vicinity of 5%.

I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.

They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.

If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.

I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.

I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.

But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.

The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.

“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.

“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”

“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”

ICC Champions Trophy final

I'll keep this short. I'd think on form Australia should defeat the kiwis in tonight's final easily.

Granted, there have been upsets in the tournament, but I think $1.38 is a reasonable return.

The New Zealand side relies heavily on its tight fielding to restrict sides below par batting performances. It's then up to their batsmen to be competitive.

Australians have hit form at the right time: Ponting, Watson, Lee, Hussey and Johnson are all handling the South African conditions extraordinarily well.

Anything above $1.30 pre-match is good for mine.

Aussiepunt will be putting a lazy 10% of our bankroll on the Aussies.