Big bets on Solar Charged into Typhoon Tracy

I love stories about big bets:

PUNTER ON TO WIN $360,000 ON BOOM FILLY DOUBLE

One Sportingbet Australia punter stands to win himself $360,000 after outlaying $10,000 on a feature double featuring the two boom females of Australian racing .

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter had backed Solar Charged to win the Golden Slipper and Typhoon Tracy to salute in the Doncaster.

“It’s a good bet and I can think of worse horses that you’d want to be on in these races,” said Sullivan.

“Solar Charged brained some other good fillies in the Kindergarten and Typhoon Tracy has dominated in Melbourne and showed the mile is no problem.

“With Solar Charged now a $4.20 favourite for the Slipper and Typhoon Tracy at $7.00 for the Doncaster this punter has got himself some pretty good value.”

Sullivan said Solar Charged continued to be well backed in Golden Slipper betting with punters keen to get on at the $4.20.

GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 7.00
Beneteau 8.00
Chance Bye 10.00
Military Rose 10.00
Zutara 11.00
Elimbari 13.00
Ambers Waltz 14.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 15.00
Psychologist 17.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Hinchinbrook 19.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 21.00
Others 23.00 Plus

South Australian election result

It is very rare that punters get elections wrong. They're often a good way of cashing up. Bet on the upset if you dare, but we believe that to be unwise.

Here's the latest from the bookies on the South Australian election:

PUNTERS BACK REDMOND TO BEAT RANN

Isobel Redmond and the Liberals are certainly attracting the support of punters with a series of big bets seeing their South Australian state election odds slashed from $5.00 to $2.90 at Sportingbet Australia.

The Liberals were rank outsiders and given little chance by bookmakers a couple of months ago but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the tide had certainly turned and 95% of bets in the past week had been for the Liberals.

“Before the Mike Rann affair story broke, Labor looked a certainty to be returned in South Australia but he now faces a real fight with polls showing Isobel Redmond’s numbers continuing to improve,” Sullivan said.

“Labor still remain $1.40 favourites but we haven’t written a bet on them this week while there has been a number of big bets placed on the opposition.

“The party that firms in the betting market in the last couple of weeks of the campaign have a tremendous record of winning and I would expect to see the Liberals to continue to shorten.”

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.40
Liberals 2.90

Western Bulldogs not worth $50,000

This one's a brave bet, given that the Doggies looked quite vulnerable on their way to the pre-season final. Yes, winning form is promising, but do they have what it takes to carry through the entire season?

People at times forget St Kilda and Geelong are still in the running, and Collingwood's midfield is every bit as good as the Dogs this year. Barry Hall could make a difference, but he'll have to kick 80-100 goals for the season to make a true impact in my book.

Here's the latest from sportingbet:

PUNTER BACKS BULLDOG FLAG TO WIN $275,000

The Western Bulldogs may have only won one premiership in eighty-five years of AFL/VFL but one Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Barry Hall can help provide them with a second after outlaying $50,000 on them at $6.50.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said it was a massive vote of confidence in the Cinderella team.

“We’ve got used to writing these kind of bets on the likes of Geelong, St Kilda and Hawthorn in the last few seasons but $275,000 to $50,000 is by far the biggest flag bet we’ve ever written on the Doggies,” said Sullivan.

“While they’ve fallen short at the penultimate hurdle each of the last two years punters are certainly in agreement with Jason Akermanis that 2010 is their best chance of winning the big one.

“While most of Australia wouldn’t begrudge a smiling Brad Johnson holding the premiership cup aloft it’s looking like costing Sportingbet Australia plenty.”

The Bulldogs are now into $5.50 with last year’s Grand Finalists Geelong and St Kilda heading betting at $4.00 and $4.75 respectively.

2010 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.75
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Adelaide 9.00
Hawthorn 9.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 26.00
Essendon 41.00
Sydney 51.00
Port Adelaide 67.00
West Coast 67.00
Fremantle 81.00
North Melbourne 101.00
Melbourne 126.00
Richmond 151.00

The Hurt Locker to win Oscars

Bookmakers are seeing a plunge for The Hurt Locker leading into the Academy Awards, and with good reason.

As good as Avatar might have been - and it will go down in history alongside the likes of Star Wars - it's not the type of film usually adopted by the Academy suits. They seem to like it real, and that's what punters are banking on.

But while the last round of awards saw The Hurt Locker take ascendency, don't forget the Golden Globes as a key indicator, where Avatar was the winner.

Here at Aussiepunt, we're tipping Avatar to walk away with three gongs.

Meanwhile, here's Sportingbet's take:

PUNTERS DESERT AVATAR

Sportingbet Australia punters have shunned box office smash Avatar ahead of Monday morning’s (Australian Time) Academy Awards ceremony.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the James Cameron blockbuster had drifted from $1.66 to $2.25 over the past two weeks.

“Avatar had all the momentum two weeks ago with us taking several four figure bets at the $1.66,” said Sullivan.

“But with The Hurt Locker picking up the last couple of lead in awards the betting has been turned on its head.”

Sullivan said The Hurt Locker had firmed from $2.25 to $1.75 in the same period with some big bets being written.

“It’s been all The Hurt Locker recently with bets including one of $3000 at $1.75,” Sullivan said.”

“Despite enjoying only moderate success at the box office this film has all the momentum in the race for Best Picture.”

Sportingbet Australia is also offering betting on how many Oscars Avatar picks up with five the favourite at $3.00.

2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
The Hurt Locker 1.75
Avatar 2.25
Inglorious Basterds 15.00
Up In The Air 41.00
Up 41.00
Precious 67.00
The Blind Side 101.00
An Education 151.00
District 9 151.00
A Serious Man 201.00

2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – HOW MANY OSCARS FOR AVATAR?
Sportingbet Australia Market
Five 3.00
Six 4.25
Four 4.50
Three 5.50
Seven 6.50
Eight 9.00
Two 12.00
Nine 26.00
One 51.00
None 101.00

Golden slipper betting

Sportingbet has taken some big bets on Solar Charged, but we wouldn't be jumping on the bandwagon quite yet.

John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.

SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED

The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.

“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.

“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”

Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.

“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.

KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00

GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus

So You Think You Can Dance elimination shock

If you can pick the winner of this one, there's some value to be had!

SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE

The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.

“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.

“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”

NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.

SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00

Newmarket horse racing field

Latest Newmarket odds from Sportingbet:

PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE

The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.

“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.

“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.

“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”

All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.

“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.

“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”

NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00

Lay against Denman in Australian Guineas

This statement came from IASbet in an effort to attract money for Denman. But if you believe the argument - and there's plenty of substance to it - rather than trying to find another pick to back, the wise thing to do would be to lay Denman with Betfair.

That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.

IASbet.com take on Denman

Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.

AFL NAB Cup tips

To some, it might be the "Who Cares Cup", but with the pre-season AFL competition at the pointy end, the sides might just be starting to give a damn.

I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.

A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.

And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.

My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.

Here's Sportingbet's take:

PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS

Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.

“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.

“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”

Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.

“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.

“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”

NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50

Australia Cup tips

There seems to be plenty of action in early Australia Cup betting.
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:

EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP

Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.

“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.

“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.

“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”

Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.

“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.

AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00

Barry Hall backed for Coleman medal

When we look at those full forwards who can score a high number of goals, for mine it's a contest between Fevola, Franklin (albeit still struggling for form) and Hall. Lecras might be an outside chance along with Bradshaw and Riewoldt.

But in essence, the price is definitely right for Big Bad Barry.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet:

Former Sydney Swans bad boy Barry Hall is into $13 to win the Coleman Medal after a more than impressive debut for the Western Bulldogs in last night’s NAB Cup demolition of Hawthorn.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Hall had already been well backed at odds of $21 and $15,

“The punters came for Hall at $21 at the start of the week with one punter on to win over $4000,” said Sullivan.

“And he was well backed at $15 immediately after last night’s match.”

Sullivan said Hall’s chance of winning the medal depended on his ability to keep his mind and body together for the bulk of the season.

“Hall’s disciplinary problems have been well publicised and at thirty three he must be a little susceptible to soft tissue injury,” Sullivan said.

“But if he can keep it all together the big bloke must be salivating at the prospect of having the pill delivered by the likes of Cooney, Murphy, Gilbee and co.”

Gun Brisbane recruit Brendan Fevola is $3.75 favourite to win the Coleman ahead of Lance Franklin at $4.50.

COLEMAN MEDAL - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Brendan Fevola [BRIS] 3.75
Lance Franklin [HAW] 4.50
Matthew Pavlich [FRE] 11.00
Daniel Bradshaw [SYD] 13.00
Barry Hall [WBD] 13.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 13.00
Jarryd Roughead [HAW] 15.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 15.00
Kurt Tippett [ADL] 19.00
Mark Lecras [WCE] 23.00
Jason Porplyzia [ADL] 34.00
Daniel Motlop [POR] 34.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 34.00
John Anthony [COL] 34.00
Jesse White [SYD] 34.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 41.00
Mark Williams [ESS] 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus

Early Brownlow Medal tips

It's still in the pre-season, but some punters are already lodging speculators on the Brownlow medal, at least one which stands to make someone a millionaire.

The first is from Sporsbet:

One punter is hoping AFL number one draft pick Tom Scully will have a standout debut season – and then some.

Scully has been backed to win more than a million dollars to win the Brownlow Medal with leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.

“We’ve just taken a bet of $700 on Tom Scully to win the Brownlow at the astronomical odds of $1501 to win $1,050,000,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“There’s no doubt he’s a star and will get plenty of game time in Melbourne’s midfield, although it’s a pretty big ask to take Charlie home in your first season.

“We’re still happy to take him on, yet we’ve had to shorten him into $501 on the back of this bet.”

Another youngster to shorten in Brownlow betting is West Coast’s Nic Naitanui, who has tightened from $301 into $81 following his best on ground performance in the NAB Cup opener.

The big move for Scully follows a bet of $1000 to win $500,000 on 28-year old rookie James Podsiadly to win this year’s Coleman Medal.

The next is from Sportingbet and focuses on young superstar Nick Natanui. While he'll be part of my supercoach team, I can't see him doing quite enough to pick up the prized gong.

Take a sneaky look, however, at a couple on the $67 line, notably Brad Sewell and Scott Pendlebury:

NATANUI BACKED FOR BROWNLOW

Exciting West Coast Eagles youngster Nick Natanui has been backed to win the Brownlow Medal at big odds to win the Brownlow Medal at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Natanui represented one of the worst results in the book at this stage.

“There was solid support for him at odds as long as $251 before Friday night’s best on ground performance and there’s been steady support at $101 since,” said Sullivan.

“We have several punters on to win over $10,000 and it’s fair to say he’s generating plenty of interest with us holding more money on him than we are on favourite Gary Ablett.”

2010 BROWNLOW MEDAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Chris Judd [CARL] 10.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 13.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 14.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 19.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 19.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 19.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 23.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 23.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 23.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 26.00
Simon Black [BRIS] 26.00
Marc Murphy [CARL] 31.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 34.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 34.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 34.00
Alan Didak [COLL] 41.00
Leigh Montagna [STK] 41.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 41.00
Steve Johnson [GEEL] 41.00
Bryce Gibbs [CARL] 51.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 51.00
Daniel Kerr [WCE] 51.00
Daniel Rich [BRIS] 51.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 51.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 51.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 51.00
Bernie Vince [ADEL] 67.00
Brad Sewell [HAW] 67.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 67.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 101.00
Ben Cousins [RICH] 101.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 101.00
Brent Stanton [ESS] 101.00
Brett Deledio [RICH] 101.00
Dean Cox [WCE] 101.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 101.00
Leon Davis [COLL] 101.00
Nicholas Naitanui [WCE] 101.00
Paddy Ryder [ESS] 101.00
Ryan Griffen [WBD] 101.00
Ryan Okeefe [SYD] 101.00
Shaun Higgins [WBD] 101.00
Others 126.00 Plus

So You Think You Can Dance odds Australia

KEIRAN NEW DANCE FAVOURITE

Melbourne ballroom dancer Keiran is Sportingbet Australia’s new favourite to take out season three of So You Think You Can Dance.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while bookies were finding it hard to sort out favouritism Keiran had impressed with his consistency.

“Keiran is our third different favourite in three weeks of betting,” said Sullivan.

“While some of the other fancies have struggled with injury and consistency this youngster has been right on the money every time he steps up to dance.”

SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Keiran 7.00
Grace 7.50
Heath 7.50
Nick 8.00
Robbie 9.00
Renee 11.00
Jessica.P 11.00
Carly 12.00
Jessie H 14.00
Jess.S 14.00
Matt 15.00
Don 17.00
Issi 17.00
Doug 21.00
Ivy 26.00
Philipe 34.00

Strange but true betting options

We've seen some strange betting options come through as bookmakers try to capture their share of the market. This one from Victor Chandler in the UK is high on the weird list: Will two players shake hands after the game?

Granted, not just any two players:

Victor Chandler have opened several markets on Chelsea v Man City at Stamford in the light of the continual spat between John Terry and Wayne Bridge. The firm make it a 5/2 shot that they shake hands on the pitch after the match, and spokesman Neal Wilkins admits that despite everything that has happened they might just do it.

“There appears to be no love lost between them, but a quick shake of the hands on a professional level is not out of the question. It might help both parties to make the effort so that they can move on. The alternative argument is that with Bridge now ruling himself out of the England squad he might feel it’s time for a few fireworks. It should be an interesting 90 minutes.”

The firm make it a 7/1 shot that both Terry and Bridge get booked in the same incident, and 33/1 that they both get sent off in the same incident. It’s a 11/2 chance that Bridge gets booked for a challenge on Terry and 13/2 the other way around.

Bridge & Terry to both get booked in same incident 7/1
Bridge & Terry to both get sent off in same incident 33/1
Bridge to be booked for challenge on Terry 11/2
Terry to be booked for challenge on Bridge 13/2
Bridge & Terry to shake hands after final whistle on pitch 5/2
Bridge to be sent off 22/1
Terry to be sent off 25/1
Terry to be booked 3/1
Bridge to be booked 5/2

Australian Cup update

BIG BARBARICUS BET

Punters are expecting an improved showing from Barbaricus in this Saturday’s Futurity Stakes after the grey gelding was backed from $81 to $41 for the Australian Cup at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money suggested the Caulfield Cup place getter could be ready to show a glimpse of his best form following two runs from a long spell with one punter backing him to win over $100,000.

“We took a bet of $120,000 to $1500 each way on him for the Australian Cup which would certainly suggest he is getting back to his best,” Sullivan said.

“He is up to the mile in the Futurity on Saturday and you’d think he would have to show something as this will be his final run before the Australian Cup.”

Heart of Dreams retains favouritism for the Australian Cup at $7.00, in Sportingbet’s market, ahead of Zipping at $8.50 and Our Aqaleem at $9.00 but Sullivan said some improved runs on Saturday had seen other contenders emerge.

“Melbourne Cup winner Shocking put in nice run on Saturday and has trimmed up to $11 while Viewed, Littorio and La Rocket all look contenders as well.”

2010 AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 8.50
Our Aqaleem 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Miss Maren 11.00
Daffodil 11.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Changingoftheguard 17.00
Extra Zero 18.00
Zagreb 18.00
La Rocket 18.00
Zarita 23.00
Snipers Bullet 26.00
Joku 31.00
Growl 31.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Barbaricus 41.00
Moatize 81.00

Punters getting in early for Melbourne Cup

It seems punters are keen to invest in the Melbourne Cup market nice and early with some big speculation bets being placed:

PUNTER SMELLS THE PERFUME OF BART'S THIRTEENTH CUP VICTORY

One Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Cups King Bart Cummings can win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup with Faint Perfume, backing the VRC Oaks winner to collect over $80,000.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Shamardal filly had shown plenty of staying potential as a three year old with Oaks winning fillies always fancied for the Cups.

“The punters had $2500 on Faint Perfume at $35 and we have now trimmed her up to $26,” said Sullivan.

“She got better in the spring as the distances got longer and the VRC Oaks winner is always well backed for the Cup, especially when they are trained by Bart Cummings.

“There’s a long way to go until November but it’s a fairly confident bet this far out.”

Alcopop is just favourite for the Cup at Sportingbet at $22 just ahead of Shocking at $23 and a host of horses at $26.

“There has been strong support the obvious contenders such as Shocking and Efficient while there has also been some big bets struck on some of the new blood such as Linton,” Sullivan said.

2010 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Alcopop 22.00
Shocking 23.00
Changingoftheguard 26.00
Viewed 26.00
Speed Gifted 26.00
Monaco Consul 26.00
Faint Perfume 26.00
So You Think 26.00
Linton 28.00
Shamoline Warrior 31.00
Valdemoro 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Efficient 35.00
Vigor 35.00
Hanks 35.00
Trusting 35.00
Oken Bruce Lee 35.00
Profound Beauty 41.00
Purple 41.00
Daffodil 41.00
Metal Bender 41.00
Scouting Wide 41.00
Passchendaele 41.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Master O'Reilly 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
My Scotsgrey 51.00
Viking Legend 51.00
Think Money 61.00
Predatory Pricer 61.00
Rebel Raider 61.00
Hume 71.00
Roman Emperor 71.00
Basaltico 71.00
Hissing Sid 71.00
Spacecraft 71.00
Driffield Gold 71.00
Miss Maren 71.00
Whobegotyou 71.00
My Bentley 71.00
Others 81.00 Plus

Update on Futurity Stakes

Update from the bookies on the Futurity Stakes:

LINTON DECISION ROCKS GROUP 1 MARKETS

Betting markets for this Saturday’s Futurity Stakes and next week’s Australian Guineas have been shaken up with Lloyd Williams bypassing the Futurity with exciting colt Linton in favour of taking on Denman in the Guineas.

“With Linton out of the Futurity, Typhoon Tracy is now the hot favourite at $1.60 to beat the boys yet again at Group 1 level,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“Linton has been installed a $5 second favourite for the Guineas. We’ve eased Denman out from $1.45 to $1.55 and former Guineas second favourite Set For Fame from $4.20 to $5.50.”

All Markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.

2010 Futurity Stakes – Final Field
$1.60 Typhoon Tracy
$4.60 Dao Dao
$6 Sniper’s Bullet
$15 Joku
$19 Lord Tavistock
$101 Barbaricus

2010 Australian Guineas
$1.55 Denman
$5 Linton (not nominated)
$5.50 Set For Fame
$12 Manhattan Rain
$21 Hanks
$21 Irish Lights
$26 Spacecraft
$31 Aloha
$31 Carrara
$31 Extra Zero
$41 Most Immediate
$41 Rockferry
$61 Guru Bob
$81 Rock Classic
Others quoted

Tiger Woods comeback odds

I wish I had the inside on this, but I don't. The Tiger Woods saga has got to be one of the more fun novelty bets in the market.

WHERE WILL TIGER MAKE HIS COMEBACK?

Ahead of Tiger Woods’ highly anticipated press conference at 3am Saturday AEDT, leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has opened a market on where Tiger will make his long awaited return to golf.

The Masters is favourite at $1.55, followed by the Arnold Palmer Invitational at $2.25. He is listed at $101 to announce his retirement from golf.

“It’s really anyone’s guess, although we think the two most likely events are the Masters or the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he is the defending champion,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.

Which event will Tiger make his comeback in?
$51 Phoenix Open, February 25-28
$41 The Honda Classic, March 4-7
$3.75 World Golf Championships – CA Championship, March 11-14
$17 Transitions Championship, March 18-21
$2.25 Arnold Palmer Invitational, March 25-28
$26 Shell Houston Open, April 1-4
$1.55 Augusta Masters, April 8-11
$7.50 Any other PGA Tournament
$101 To retire

Will Tiger play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta?
$1.35 Yes
$3.05 No

Which Major will Tiger win next?
$3.50 2010 US Masters
$5 2010 US Open
$6 2010 British Masters
$10 2010 US PGA
$13 2011 US Masters
$19 2011 US Open
$26 2011 British Open
$51 2011 US PGA
$3.25 None of the above

William Reid Stakes update

So, IASBet reckons Benetau will win, yet they're prepared to return win bets which lose to the favourite. Interesting concept!

TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES

IASbet.com's John Hartnett gives punters his thoughts on Saturday's Blue Diamond and Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield.

"Preludes are the best form guide for the Blue Diamond, and both Benetau ($3.70 into $3.20) and Psychologist ($8) were very impressive. Given Psychologist must start from the outside gate, it looks like the colt will be very hard to beat now."

"The Oakleigh Plate is a wide open affair and really is anyone's race. Here de Angels ($7.00) ran a track record last start, Peter Moody has four runners (Wanted $5.50, Headway $15, Avenue $21 and Tickets $17) each with good chances, while Weekend Hussler ($15.00) is the query runner and would not surprise first up. For mine, I think Starspangledbanner ($7.00) is a good each-way bet. He won second up at the 1100m last time in and is drawn to get the gun run".

Iasbet.com has a range of special markets and a money back specials available on the Blue Diamond Stakes:

Money Back Special
Place a win only bet (CITY SuperPrice) on the Blue Diamond Stakes and if your bet selection comes 2nd to BENETEAU, we'll refund your bet up to $200.

And here's sportsbet's take on the show:

MONEY COMES FOR BOOM COLT

Blue Diamond hot-favourite Beneteau has been backed off the map according to leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.

“Eight in every 10 bets we’ve taken today have been on Beneteau, including one of $30,000 at $3.50 on the star Sydney colt,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“Star Witness, who was plunged on at $17 in early markets, is also a very bad result. However, both he and the filly Psychologist have been unwanted since their poor draws.”

Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.

2010 BLUE DIAMOND FINAL FIELD
$3.50 Beneteau
$7.50 Star Witness
$7.50 Psychologist
$8.50 Crystal Lily
$10 Secsession
$11 Shaaheq
$19 Evidentia
$21 Sweet Cheeks
$21 Legalistic
$21 Willow Creek
$21 General Truce
$26 She’s Got Gears
$41 Roulettes
$121 Spirit Cent
$121 Bit Of A Dude

Special for Randwick tomorrow

This seems like a good thing to follow. Statement comes from Sportingbet.

SNITZEL'S HALF BROTHER WELL BACKED AT RANDWICK

Some big money has arrived at Sportingbet Australia for Gerard Ryan’s half brother to Snitzel, Hinchinbrook, to win on debut at Randwick tomorrow.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the son of Fastnet Rock had been backed in from $3.10 to $2.50.

“We’ve taken a string of bets on this bloke including one of $10,000 at the $3.10,” said Sullivan.

“By all accounts he was ultra impressive at his latest trial and the money suggests he’ll be hard to beat tomorrow.”

Sullivan said there had also been a nibble on the horse to win the Golden Slipper.

“He’s been backed from $34 to $17 with us so you’d have to think it has its fair share of ability,” he said.

Tiger Woods to surface in Augusta

This is a prime example of how bookmakers are diversifying their markets. They're asking whether Tiger Woods will play at the season's first major. Origin reports said he'd take 12 months off.

Here's the word from Sportsbet.com:

Following recent reports that Tiger Woods may play at the Accenture Match Play Championship next week, Sportsbet.com.au were quickly swamped by punters wishing to bet that Tiger would be a no-show.

“We put up $1.55 on Tiger not playing at the Accenture Match Play Championship, which was quickly smashed into $1.30,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“Given Accenture was one of the first companies to drop Tiger it would surprise if he made his comeback at this event.”

Talk has now focused on whether or not Tiger will tee it up at this year’s first Major - The US Masters - which begins on April 8 at Augusta.

“We think Tiger will make it back for the Masters and have installed him as a $1.35 favourite to play at Augusta, with $3.05 available on Tiger not to play the year’s first Major,” said Lane.

All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.

Will Tiger play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta?
$1.35 Yes
$3.05 No

Which Major will Tiger win next?
$3.50 2010 US Masters
$5 2010 US Open
$6 2010 British Masters
$10 2010 US PGA
$13 2011 US Masters
$19 2011 US Open
$26 2011 British Open
$51 2011 US PGA

Tasmanian election on a knife edge

Usually, punters have a fairly good idea of how an election might pan out. The Tasmanian state election is an exception. If the odds are any indication, it could be a cliffhanger.

LABOR SLIGHT FAVOURITE BUT PHOTO FINISH EXPECTED

Labor has been posted as a slight favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to be returned in Tasmania after Premier David Bartlett called a state election for March 20.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Labor were in real danger of losing government but retained favouritism at this stage.

“Labor are $1.80 favourites but I wouldn’t be surprised to see support come from punters for the Liberals here,” Sullivan said.

“The Liberals are $2.00 outsiders but that could well change before March 20.

“The Greens will also be a major factor here in Tasmania again and could potentially hold the balance of power.”

Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the party that provides the Premier so any deal with the Greens could be very influential.

TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.80
Liberal 2.00

William Reid Stakes market fluctuations

More news on the William Reid Stakes, this time from Centrebet:

PUNTERS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF WILLIAM REID STAKES

Punters are treading warily ahead of the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley following Thursday’s downpour according to leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.

“A few of the big punters have said they will wait and see how the track is faring on race day before they step up,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“The early scratching of Black Caviar has really opened up the market. At this stage Nicconi has been the best backed, while Shellscrape, who loves the sting out of the ground, has been backed from $5 into $4.20.”

Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.

2010 William Reid Stakes
$3.20 Nicconi
$3.60 Wanted
$4.20 Shellscrape
$7 Light Fantastic
$10 Turffontein
$12 Sniper’s Bullet
$26 Mentality
$151 Master O’Rielly

Big bets for Offloaded in Alistair Clark Stakes

It's always nice to know where the money's going ...

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON OFFLOADED

All the talk may have centered around Extra Zero and Linton but punters have decided Lohnro gelding Offhanded is the horse to beat in tomorrow’s Alistair Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Darley galloper had been backed in from $4.60 to $4.00 in the space of an hour.

“The phones rang hot on Friday morning with punters wanting to back the Sydney visitor,” said Sullivan.

“Offhanded hit the line hard last time ay Randwick and has an outstanding record with the sting out of the ground.”

Sullivan said he would not be surprised to see Offhanded firm into favouritism with doubts over his two major challengers.

“Linton was impressive at Cranbourne but this is a fair step up from maiden company, while Extra Zero has shown plenty but has an ordinary strike rate.”

“I would not be surprised in the least if the money doesn’t ease up for Offhanded.”

ALISTAIR CLARK STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Linton 3.80
Extra Zero 4.00
Offhanded 4.00
Rake The Rap 10.00
Eraset 11.00
At The Heads 12.00
Viking Hero 12.00
Cosmocrat 15.00
Prost 101.00
Full Metal Jacket 101.00

William Reid Stakes

Plenty of news coming through on the William Reid Stakes. First, from IASbet:

TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES

Betting for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes has been turned on its head following the scratching of hot favourite Black Caviar reports IASbet.com's John Hartnett.

"It's a wide open race now without the champion filly," said Hartnett. "The three place getters of the Lightning Stakes are now the top three in the market in Nicconi ($5.50 into $3.20), Wanted ($6.50 into $3.40), and Shellscrape ($11.00 into $4.50)."

"I think Shellscrape finds his right race here. He hasn't raced at the Valley, although he is very suited to the 1200m and he likes the cut out of the ground."

IASbet.com has a range of head to head markets available on the William Reid Stakes, including Nicconi ($1.80) vs Wanted ($1.90), Shellscrape ($1.70) vs Light Fantastic ($2.15), Turffontein ($1.70) vs Snipers Bullet ($2.15), and Master OReilly ($2.75) vs Mentality ($1.45).

And from Sportingbet:

NICCONI NEW WILLIAM REID FAVOURITE

The David Hayes trained Nicconi is Sportingbet Australia’s new William Reid favourite following the shock withdrawl of odds on favourite Black Caviar.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Nicconi’s better record at WFA entitled him to be a slight favourite ahead of Black Caviar’s stablemate Wanted.

“Nicconi deserves the slight edge in the odds but we’re more than prepared to lay him at the $3.20,” said Sullivan.

“There had been strong support for Nicconi even before Black Caviar’s withdrawal as it shortened from $6.50 to $5.50 and I expect to see the money keep coming.

“The scratching of the favourite has done him no favours with the Chris Waller trained Shellscrape now likely to get a soft lead in the race.”

WILLIAM REID STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Nicconi 3.20
Wanted 3.30
Shellscrape 4.80
Light Fantastic 6.00
Sniper’s Bullet 9.00
Turffontein 11.00
Mentality 21.00
Master O’Reilly 101.00

Gold Logie betting opens

Latest statement from Sportingbet:

STONE THE FLAMIING CROWS - COULD ALF GET THE GOLD LOGIE?

Sportingbet Australia has opened betting on the 2010 Gold Logie.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he expected veteran actress Rebecca Gibney to repeat last year’s success.

“Gibney is the lead actress in Australia’s most popular drama and has always been popular with Australian viewers,” said Sullivan.

“While perennial favourites such as Rove McManus and Adam Hills have to be respected, she looks the winner.”

Sullivan said he was wary of a repeat of last year’s Ian Smith campaign repeating with Home And Away veteran Ray Meagher.

“We have Meagher safe in the market at $7.50 after hearing whispers that there could be a vote for Alf campaign,” Sullivan said.

“There’s no doubt he’d be a popular winner and must be respected as the longest serving actor in any serial all over the world.”

2010 GOLD LOGIE WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 2.50
Rove McManus 4.50
Adam Hills 5.50
Ray Meagher 7.50
Natalie Bassingthwaighte 9.00
Rodger Corser 11.00
Joelene Anderson 11.00
Sonia Kruger 14.00
Daniel MacPherson 17.00
Eddie McGuire 21.00
Michael Caton 26.00
Grant Denyer 31.00
Others Quoted

Breaking news: Friday afternoon plunge

Press statement from Sportingbet:

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON KAVANAGH COLT

Sportingbet Australia punters have stepped into boom Mark Kavanagh trained colt We’re Gonna Rock for this afternoon’s Clayton RSL Handicap at Moonee Valley.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said after days of ignoring the star 3yo punters had struck in a big way over the past hour.

“We’ve taken some good bets on We’re Gonna Rock including a Best Fluctuation bet of $22,500.”

“Sportingbet Australia punters have unloaded and it looks like this colt will be one of our biggest stands of the weekend.”

An educated coin flip

I don't usually tout offers, but this is a seriously good one: A coin flip with the advantage of knowledge - call it an educated coin flip:

Victor Chandler are offering EVENS both sides of the handicap in all Six Nations matches!

Applies to all bets pre-event and in-running up to the start of the 2nd half. Internet & telephone bets only.

Good value in CF Orr Stakes at Caulfield

Quite often if the bookmakers are willing to take on a favourite, we should be too. And there are some top chances at good odds here. Don't totally discard Zipping.

TRACY ALL THE RAGE FOR SPORTINGBET ORR STAKES

The Peter Moody juggernaut looks set to continue with the exciting Typhoon Tracy an early $1.75 for Saturday’s Group One Sportingbet C F Orr Stakes at Caulfield.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting to see mountains of money for the Red Ransom mare.

“Typhoon Tracy may be at short odds but gee she looks tough to beat,” said Sullivan.

“I’m expecting the phone lines to run hot all the way through to Saturday.”

Sullivan said he was prepared to take the favourite on with the field full of quality gallopers.

“The likes of Shocking and Viewed are capable of running well fresh and could cause an upset, ” said Sullivan.

“While gallopers such as Sniper’s Bullet and Danzylum may just have a fitness edge at the last part of 1400 metres and Heart Of Dreams has to be respected.

“We’ll be laying Typhoon Tracy all day, then sitting back and hoping for an upset.”


2010 SPORTINGBET C F ORR STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Typhoon Tracy 1.75
Heart Of Dreams 4.50
Sniper’s Bullet 7.50
Raffaello 10.00
Viewed 17.00
Danzylum 17.00
Shocking 26.00
Zipping 26.00
Sirmione 61.00
Littorio 61.00

Early odds for Newmarket horse racing

Sportingbet has been busy today. Another one geared primarily towards Australian punters. It shows early odds for the Newmarket. Unless you've got an inside tip, I'd be leaving it well alone until acceptances:

COMMON INTEREST BACKED TO WIN NEWMARKET

The Lee Freedman trained colt Common Interest has been well backed a big odds for the Newmarket, shortening from $81 to $41 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had been well supported since his good third when resuming in the Kensington Stakes.

“We took one bet of $80,000 to $1000 on Common Interest and there was more good money for him at $71 and $61,” Sullivan said.

“The Newmarket is obviously a steep rise in class but he has a great winning strike rate and the money suggests he will continue to improve through the preparation.”

Sullivan also reported good support for Tollesprit who has shortened from $61 to $26 following his impressive win on Saturday.

“We shortened him to $41 following his win on Saturday but the money came for immediately with one bet to win $20,000,” Sullivan said.

“Shane Fliedner suggested the horse still had a lot of improvement in him from that win so he certainly looks like one to follow.”


2010 NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Black Caviar 5.25
All Silent 6.00
Nicconi 11.00
Weekend Hussler 13.00
Typhoon Tracy 14.00
Wanted 14.00
Starspangledbanner 14.00
Avenue 15.00
Trusting 16.00
Shellscrape 16.00
We're Gonna Rock 18.00
Eagle Falls 20.00
Headway 21.00
Light Fantastic 23.00
Swift Alliance 23.00
Burdekin Blues 26.00
Bank Robber 26.00
Irish Lights 26.00
Tickets 26.00
Tollesprit 26.00
Denman 31.00
Danleigh 31.00
Hay List 31.00
Demerit 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
King Pulse 35.00
Turffontein 35.00
Duporth 41.00
Court 41.00
Rarefied 41.00
Captain Coltish 41.00
Common Interest 41.00
Eight Bills 41.00
Cannonball 51.00
Dreamscape 51.00
El Segundo 51.00
Chasm 51.00
Occurrence 51.00
Gold Trail 51.00
Gran Sasso 61.00
Secret Flyer 61.00
Royal Ida 61.00
Arinos 61.00
Keano 61.00
Kroner 61.00
Governance 71.00
Huxssen 71.00
Velocitea 71.00
Others 81.00 Plus

A tip to tell the grandchildren about

For those willing to back the rank outsider, perhaps looking for a fairytale story to tell the grandchildren, this might be the one.

It's the latest news from Sportingbet, geared primarily towards Australian punters.


BOLTER BACKED TO WIN DONCASTER

The Kerry Parker trained gelding Brilliant Light has been backed at long odds to win the Doncaster following a breakthrough campaign in the Spring.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the horse would need to improve markedly from his three wins on the trot last year but one punter had backed the 4yo gelding to win $100,000.

“There’s certainly been a bit of a nibble with Brilliant Light’s price firming from $401 to $251 in early betting,” said Sullivan.

“If there’s as much improvement in the horse as last time in it could prove to be money well spent.

“It is obviously a massive leap in class but we took a bet of $100,000 to $250 which would certainly suggest the horse is primed for a big campaign.”


2010 DONCASTER MILE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 9.00
Rangirangdoo 11.00
So You Think 12.00
Denman 14.00
More Joyous 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Typhoon Tracy 15.00
Trusting 16.00
Heart Of Dreams 16.00
Rock Kingdom 18.00
Weekend Hussler 19.00
Theseo 19.00
Kidnapped 21.00
Black Piranha 23.00
Drumbeats 26.00
Irish Lights 26.00
Were Gonna Rock 26.00
Dealer Principal 31.00
Olonhro 31.00
All Silent 31.00
Black Caviar 31.00
Neroli 31.00
Danleigh 35.00
Demerit 35.00
Hot Danish 35.00
Road To Rock 35.00
Melito 41.00
Sister Madly 41.00
Governance 41.00
Mcclintock 41.00
Snipers Bullet 41.00
Vision And Power 41.00
Wall Street 41.00
Duporth 51.00
Katie Lee 51.00
Raffaello 51.00
Set For Fame 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Alcopop 51.00
Dao Dao 51.00
Palacio De Cristal 51.00
Shellscrape 51.00
Speed Gifted 51.00
Tickets 51.00
Walking Or Dancing 51.00
Wanted 51.00
Daffodil 61.00
Jellylorum 61.00
Lodge The Deeds 61.00
Others 71.00 Plus
Brilliant Light 251.00

Rudd in trouble

Punters are usually very good when it comes to tipping elections. If that's the case, we are starting to see the slide of the government. Albeit still at long odds, maybe Rudd is a little on the nose.

I won't be joining those who consider Abbott to be a good bet, though.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet Australia:

PUNTERS SAY RUDD GOVERNMENT IN FOR A FIGHT

Punters have moved with today’s Newspoll, getting behind the opposition of Tony Abbott as the figures show this parliamentary season will be no cakewalk for the Rudd Government.

The Opposition have shortened from $4.25 into $4.00 in Sportingbet Australia’s federal election market following today’s polling which shows the Coalition edging ahead in the primary vote 41-40.

While Kevin Rudd’s Government retains an election-winning lead of four points in two-party preferred, their slide from a ten-point lead has seen them drift in betting from $1.20 out to $1.25.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Tony Abbott’s pugilistic style seems to have cut through on complex issues like emissions trading, where the Government is having trouble articulating its policies.

“In boxing, leading with your chin is always a dangerous strategy, but Tony Abbott has made a career out of it – and punters get it,” said Mr Sullivan.

“This is the first time since the 2007 election when we have been taking more bets on the Coalition than the Government.

“In this session of parliament I think we’ll see the government on the back foot for the first time in three years and that could well see the Coalition’s odds trim up further.”

AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor $1.25
Coalition $4.00

Will Wayne Rooney score?

News from Victor Chandler:

ROO BEAUTY!
Sunday - Arsenal v Man Utd, Kick off 4.00pm, Live on Sky Sports 1
If WAYNE ROONEY scores at ANYTIME in the match Victor Chandler will refund all losing Correct Score and First Goalscorer bets as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per person. Applies to singles only placed prior to kick-off. Internet and telephone bets only. Free bets credited within 24 hours.

Lightning Stakes novelty bets

Sometimes I find myself undecided between two horses, and the novelty bets help solve the dilemma. I've heard some - let's say more regular punters - say the novelty bets are for mugs.

Granted, they're there to increase bookmaker turnover, but I beg to differ in that they merely help open up the field to increase our chances of a win. That is, of course, if we can isolate the novelty bet which best suits our predictions.

Here's the latest from IASbet.com on the Lightning Stakes in Melbourne.

YOUNG OR OLD TO STRIKE IN THE LIGHTNING?

IASbet.com has a range of novelty markets for punters to choose from on the Lightning Stakes at Flemington.
Punters can pick whether the winner will be aged three or four and over, whether or not a Group 1 winning horse will win the race, and whether an odd or an even-numbered horse will take the winner's cheque home.

Will a three-year-old or an older horse win the Lightning Stakes?
$1.55 Any 3YO winner
$2.45 Any 4YO+ winner

Will a Group 1 winning horse win the Lightning Stakes?
$1.55 Group 1 winner to win
$2.45 Non-Group 1 winner to win

Will an even or an odd horse win the Lightning Stakes?
$1.90 Even-numbered horse
$1.90 Odd-numbered horse

Guest tipster Friday - free tips

It's Friday again, and although I'm a bit late in the day, we've gotten a hold of some free tips from TAB sportsbet in New South Wales.

The racing tips usually go fairly well and despite a bad week last week, we've scanned over the latest offering and figure they're okay.

The soccer tips are usually only for Australian soccer and the bloke tips more draws than I've ever seen. I saw a theory on a UK betting site which insisted betting all up combinations on the draw in every game was a profitable exercise. Perhaps that's the same theory this tipster works on.

Regardless, for international readers who are following the Friday guest tips, most Australian agencies will take bets on these tips.

They come from racing follower Andrew Bensley:

The first kicks off at the Harness Racing tonight. All races are quoted in Sydney time:

Harness
Friday 22nd January
Harold Park Race 5 - 9:00pm
No.3 - CLONTARF LADY

Gallops
Saturday 23rd January
Rosehill Race 5 - 3:50pm
No.9 - CHANCE BYE

Greyhounds
Saturday 23rd January
Wentworth Park Race 1 - 7:27pm
No.7 - WINSOME JOE

Our balance remains at $100 so we'll whack 10% of the stack on each race ... no half measures. All will be to come first past the post.

Good luck!

Horse racing: Black Caviar odds

I personally don't understand why you'd take the novelty odds when you can all up on two races for the same return. Trainers are always keen to squeeze "one more" race out of a champion horse ... which just decreases your chances of a novelty 7-1 return.

It's a nice option, but our advice: Feel free to get on Black Caviar early, but ignore the novelty bet.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet:

The wraps on boom filly Black Caviar have been that big that Sportingbet Australia have posted her as a $7.00 chance to go through her entire preparation unbeaten.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the reports of Black Caviar’s work going into Friday night’s Australia Stakes had seen punters wanting to get on her in every way possible.

“She is $1.40 for the Australia Stakes which may well be overs, if the early money is anything to go by, as punters are knocking down the door to get on her,” Sullivan said.

“There has been good money for her in the Newmarket as well with her price shortening for $6.00 to $5.50 in the past 24 hours.

“We have her $7.50 to go through the preparation undefeated and I think punters will come for that as it is likely to be only the three starts in the Australia Stakes and William Reid, where she will be very short, and then the Newmarket.”

“If she dominates those two races like everyone is expecting, then she is going to be pretty short in the Newmarket and the $7.50 will look very good all of a sudden.”

Here De Angels is on the second line of betting at Sportingbet for the Australia Stakes at $3.00 with the early scratching of Heart of Dreams meaning Royal Ida is third favourite at $15.00.

“At this stage we haven’t seen any money for the other contenders and I think Black Caviar can probably only get beaten if she muddles the start and finds trouble,” Sullivan said.

WILL BLACK CAVIAR WIN EVERY START THIS PREPARATION?
Sportingbet Australia Market
YES, Black Caviar Wins Every Start This Preparation 7.00
NO, Black Caviar Does Not Win Every Start This Prep 1.11

AUSTRALIA STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Black Caviar 1.40
Here De Angels 3.00
Royal Ida 15.00
La Rocket 41.00
Ferocia 201.00

Australian Open tennis tips Thursday

Well, we almost got it right with a huge upset in the tennis last night, tipping that Bernard Tomic would be a real show. He lasted the five sets before going down to the far more experienced Marin Cilic.

Our bet of the day, however, did get up ... just.

Forent Serra overcame Jarkko Nieminen in another five setter.

Today's tip of the day is for Tipsarevic to overcome veteran Tommy Haas. Tipper, as I like to call him, is at $2.15 or thereabouts which is a great return.

Australian Open tips

One of our outsider tips to win the Australian Open was upset in the first round - Robin Soderling. He seems to do well against the better players but has a mind explosion against lower ranked opponents. We'll have to live and learn from that experience.

But two others, Russians Davydenko and Dementieva, are still there. Should one of those win their respective tournaments, we've done quite well.

The following press release was from the weekend, which means it's a little outdated. It does, however, show that there's been plenty of money floating around. It also shows for whom.

For today's matches, there's not a lot of value around. But Bernard Tomic is at $6.70 to beat Marin Cilic. Ignore the rankings. Tomic is at 289 in the world, while Cilic is 14th. But Tomic has had good wins in the last month, including the scalps of Novak Djokovic and Radek Stepanek in warm up tournaments. He's not without a chance, particularly with the home crowd behind him.

In other games, Viktor Troicki is a player rising in the rankings and comes up against Florian Mayer who comes off the back of a 2 sets to love comeback win in the first round. Troicki is at $1.47 and should win, regardless of how pumped Mayer is.

Bet of the day for mine is Florent Serra to beat Jarkko Nieminen at $1.68. It's better than bank interest, that one! Serra has a 4-1 record against Nieminen who seems to have struggled to get past the first round of most tournaments of late, accounting for his falling world ranking.

TENNIS: BAGHDATIS BACKED FROM $151 TO $51

Marcos Baghdatis has been heavily backed to enjoy another good run at this year’s Australian Open following his win in Sydney.

Baghdatis, who opens his campaign on Tuesday against Paolo Lorenzi, has shortened from $151 last week to $51 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Cypriot was very popular with punters in Sydney last week and the money had also arrived for a shock Australian Open win.

“Baghdatis was well backed against Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters in Sydney and punters rallied behind him in his semi final and final win as well,” Sullivan said.

“We did bet as much as $331 when markets were posted a couple of months ago but the real interest has come since he showed he was in top form in Sydney.”

“We took one bet of $66,000 to $1000 and he has been as popular as any other player.”

Sullivan said all the punter interest had been away from pre tournament favourites Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

“Punters are certainly looking for value with many thinking the big three are still some way off top form,” he said.

“There has been good money for Novak Djokovic who has shortened from $9.00 to $6.50 and for US Open winner Juan Martin Del Potro.

“Of the roughies, there has been good money for Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic and Robin Soderling.”

Gianfranco Zola to stay at West Ham

Here's some latest markets in the English Premier League. The 40% return for Zola could be worth taking, but as regular followers of this blog will know, we rarely advise that people take any odds under $1.50.

THE STAR OF DAVIDS?

Victor Chandler make it a 2/5 shot that Gianfranco Zola is still the West Ham manager on June 1st after David Sullivan and David Gold gave the Italian their backing as they took over the East End club today. The firm go 7/4 that he gets the bullet.

“It’s a well worn joke that when the chairman gives a manager his backing it means the exact opposite, but we feel that the two David’s are sincere in their wish to see Zola succeed at Upton Park.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.

“That said Zola still has to do the business on the park, and if the Hammers don’t start climbing the table soon then Gold and Sullivan might have no option but to change things.”

The firm also make it a 5/6 shot that the Hammers get over 20.5 Premier League points from now until the end of the season, and the same price that they don’t manage that points tally.

Gianfranco Zola to be West Ham manager on June 1st 2010

Yes 2/5
No 7/4

West Ham Points with Sullivan & Gold in charge (2009/2010 season)

Under 20.5 points 5/6
Over 20.5 points 5/6

Avatar favourite to win Oscar

Sorry folks, I've been away for the last week, so there's a stack of media statements from bookies which I'm about to post on the site. After watching the Golden Globes on Monday, it seems there is some credence to this one.

It looks to be one of the most open contests for "best film" at this year's Academy Awards we've had for a long while. This means there could be some value.

It will take some courage, however, to run with an outsider. The best value I can see is "Precious" at 17-1 given that it seems to have all the politically correct attributes which the academy likes, but "Up in the air" could be a strong showing.

Here's the latest from Sportingbet:

WE BET AVATAR DOESN'T WIN

Sportingbet Australia bookmakers are prepared to risk boom movie Avatar repeating it’s Golden Globe success at March’s Academy Awards and are betting over the odds at $1.80.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Avatar has history against it winning an Oscar.

“Avatar is a serious contender after taking out its category at the Golden Globes,” said Sullivan.

“But to put things into perspective The Hangover also won its category and would be 500/1 to win a Best Picture Oscar.

“ Add to that the fact that no Science Fiction film, including ET, has ever taken out an Oscar for Best Picture and I just don’t think Avatar should be odds on.”

Sullivan rates second favourite The Hurt Locker ($2.75) a massive chance and also gives Up In The Air ($3.50) and roughie Inglorious Basterds ($13.00) solid hopes of upsetting the favourite.

ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market

Avatar 1.80
The Hurt Locker 2.75
Up In The Air 3.50
Inglorious Basterds 13.00
A Serious Man 13.00
Precious 17.00
Nine 21.00
An Education 21.00
Julie & Julia 31.00
The White Ribbon 31.00
Invictus 34.00
Up 41.00
The Road 41.00
The Last Station 41.00
The Lovely Bones 51.00
The Messenger 51.00
Others 67.00 Plus

Brian Laws at 9/1 to leave

Wigan to concede the most goals seems like value. Here's the latest press release from Victor Chandler:

Victor Chandler have installed Brian Laws at 9/1 to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post, and just 5/2 that they finish bottom this season after he was given the nod as Burnley’s new boss, and the firm admit that it was an appointment that took them by surprise.

“This seems a bizarre selection and we fear for the club during the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Dave Jenkins.

“It seems that everything that Coyle had built up could collapse and we really feel they’ll struggle to adapt. Laws is not renowned for his passing football. I hope the Clarets fans have their neck braces ready because it won’t be pretty from now on. This could well end in tears.”

The firm also make Burnley the 7/4 favourites now to concede the most goals this season. They have conceded 40 goals so far closely followed in the betting by Hull City (42) at 2/1 and by Wigan (44) at 5/2.

Burnley to finish bottom
Yes 5/2
No 1/4

Brian Laws to be the Next Premier Manager to leave post 9/1

Who will Concede Most Goals This Season?
Burnley (40) 7/4
Hull City (42 2/1
Wigan (44) 5/2
West Ham (37) 6/1
Blackburn (39) 7/1

Australia vs Pakistan in Hobart

Below is a release from Sportingbet Australia.

The draw might well indeed be well backed, but it's difficult not to see Australia making it a 3-0 whitewash of the series.

With all the turmoil in the Pakistan team surrounding the selection, or non-selection as the case might well turn out to be, of Kamran Akhmal, the Pakistan temperament could go one of two ways. They could self-destruct (which is the most likely scenario) or they could perform out of their skin.

For mine, they had their chance in Sydney and blew it. My advice: Stay well clear of this betting market due to its unpredictability, but if you really must bet, Australia at $1.72 is the best option.

And remember, rain sometimes enhances the likelihood of a result, particularly if it manages to affect the wicket. Players might need only two hours on each of the last three days to secure a result.

Pakistan’s improved performance in the second Test and the threat of rain has seen punters swarm to back the draw for the third test starting tomorrow in Hobart.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the draw had been backed from $3.65 to $3.30 in the last 24 hours with long range forecasts predicting rain over the last three days.

“The draw has been the only option punters have wanted to back with a number of good bets including one of $4000 at $3.65,” said Sullivan.

“With a prediction of an 80 percent chance of rain for each of the last three days punters are willing to risk Pakistan lasting the first two days without any major damage.”

Australia remain ruling $1.72 favourites at Sportingbet Australia following their miraculous come from behind win in Sydney.

“The win in Sydney could well have smashed the confidence of Pakistan, who really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, so Australia will remain favourites unless the rain really threatens to disrupt play in a big way,” Sullivan said

THIRD TEST – AUSTRALIA V PAKISTAN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Australia 1.72
Draw 3.30
Pakistan 5.50

Football tip: Get on Manchester City

If you're looking for a longer term investment, Manchester City is a fantastic bet.

A great win at the weekend might mean they're finally putting early-season criticism behind them to produce the results everybody was expecting.

Yes, it does take time for a team to gel. It might just be starting to happen, and with 8.5 points start, it's a great bet.

I'm not as convinced about Everton or Tottenham.

Victor Chandler have opened up several season handicap match bets featuring some old city rivals in the Premier League. They have matched up Man United with Man City, Liverpool with Everton and Arsenal with Tottenham. VC’s spokesman Neal Wilkins thinks that the underdogs in the bets will be the most popular.

“We suspect that we’ll be laying Man City, Everton and Tottenham. City look quite menacing at the moment whereas United seem to be floundering a bit, Everton are slowly getting their act together and Tottenham look like they are only going to improve as the season goes on.”

Man City are getting a handicap of +8.5 points over United, Everton are getting +19.5 points against their city rivals, and Tottenham receive +11.5 against their arch enemies.

Premier League Season Match Bets

Man City (+8.5) 5/6
Man United (-8.5) 5/6

Everton (+19.5) 5/6
Liverpool (-19.5) 5/6

Tottenham (+11.5) 5/6
Arsenal (-11.5) 5/6

Premier League goal scores

If someone said at the beginning of the season that they'd give you better than even money on Chelsea scoring most goals this season - oh, and they'd give you eight goals head start - you'd probably take it.

The same scenario exists now, and we're well into the season. I intentionally don't edit many press releases, so here's the latest from Victor Chandler:

Man City are now 7/1 to be the Premier League highest scorers with Victor Chandler after bagging four goals in last night’s convincing victory over Blackburn. City have now hit the net 42 times in the Premier League so far this season, but are still some way behind the leaders Arsenal who have netted 53.

“The Gunners are clear favourites with 53 goals, but the pack are quite capable of mounting a challenge.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “It only takes a couple of big wins and the whole complexion changes.”

Man United are currently in second place with 46 goals, closely followed by Chelsea on 45. Man City and Tottenham are next best on 42, with Liverpool on 37.

Who will score the most goals in the Premier League this season

Arsenal (53) 11/8
Chelsea (45) 7/4
Man United (46) 2/1
Man City (42) 7/1
Tottenham (42) 10/1
Liverpool (37) 16/1

Australian Open tennis start list

There is no doubt that Roger Federer and Raphael Nadal will start favourites for the Australian Open.

It's interesting to see that Juan Martin Del Potro is currently nestled between the two in terms of favouritism stakes.

Granted, it's always hard to go past a champion and you'll be getting better than even money on Federer. The media are much more quiet than they were last year when the Fed's pre-event results were just as poor as they are this year.

I guess they're not quite as keen to have mud on their face in case he again finishes the year as the world's top-ranked player.

But let's look at form. Del Potro is fresh from a big win but hasn't played the traditional warm up events. That makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity and difficult to back.

Slide down the list to Nikolay Davydenko. He's the form player, coming from his masters win late last year and his win in last week's warm up event, where he came back from a bagel down in the first set to defeat Raffa.

It's always difficult to bet on Davydenko. In the big money events, he's likely to come out and surprise everyone, yet he's equally able to "throw" - whether intentional or not - his first round match. But at 10/1, he's worth a small investment.

The other one is Robin Soderling. The Swede broke a 12-match losing streak against Federer in Abu Dhabi and has beaten Nadal two out of their last three encounters. He's not yet at the point where he'll consistently win Grand Slams and word is he's not overly liked by the players. But he is erratically capable of anything.

At 25/1, Soderling is a tall man with a big serve and he likes the Melbourne surface. At the odds, he's well worth an investment.

In the women's event, Kim Clijsters (3/1) looks hard to beat, especially if Justine Henin is ruled out. It's not smart to totally eliminate the Williams sisters, particularly Serena who as world number 1 will start favourite to win the event.

But Clijsters is the form player - looking fit and happy.

For those looking for an outsider, Elena Dementieva fires up at 14/1. There was a time last year when she strung together more than 10 games on the trot and was the world's form player, until she fell heavily to American giant killer Melanie Oudin.

Postponed Premier League matches turns weekend sour

There's good news and bad news.

The good news is we haven't lost any money.

The bad news is that each of Neal Wilkins' tips for the weekend were on matches postponed by Premier League officials due to the weather.

Guest tipsters will be back this Friday, with Neal Wilkins to have another crack. We'll also have another surprise celebrity from the sporting world.

So, balance after week 1 remains at $100.

KFC Big Bash market ... get on quick

I'm not usually keen on futures markets, but this one is great value. Western Australia overnight - thanks probably to commentary from Mark Waugh who said he'd placed a bet at $9 - has firmed two points to win the KFC Big Bash.

Western Australia has won only one of its three games, but has struck some bad luck with Chris Gayle's injury and other factors.

But they're a terrific side and with the Marsh brothers hitting fantastic form in their last win against Victoria and with Gayle likely to return in their next encounter, they're a real chance.

They'll have to win four games straight, but that's not beyond their well-rounded outfit.

They're still at $7 with Sportsbet, and $6.60 with Betfair, but I wouldn't expect those odds to remain intact for too long. Now's the time to get on, if only for a speculator - we'd suggest 5% of your bankroll.

On a slight tangent, it was interesting to see Queensland last night and the irony of their management policies. It's the side which couldn't buy a Sheffield Shield win in the 70s and 80s, despite some of the world's best players chipping in - Viv Richards not being the least.

Now, they're the only team in the KFC Big Bash not to have an international import. The irony is, it won't matter. They still won't win.

That said, James Hopes is terrific. I look forward to his presence in the Australian one-day team. Let's hope Watson doesn't steal his place.

How will Darren Ferguson hold up?

Neal, quoted below, is our guest tipster this weekend. He's actively promoting new markets for Victor Chandler. And given there's no racing, all attention is being put on the football.

This is their latest release:

Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.

“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”

Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.

Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?

Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10

Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.

Magic Millions 2yo classic

And from the same bookmaker, here's the market movements for the Magic Millions 2-year-old race at the Gold Coast, Australia:

Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.

Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.

“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.

“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.

“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”

Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.

“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.

“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”

There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.

MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00

Love Conquers All is Magic Millions favourite

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia with the latest market movements for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, Sydney, Australia, this weekend:

The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.

“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.

“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”

Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.

“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.

MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00

How we work our bankroll

Friday guest tipping is up and running again, so I thought it might be worth a quick refresher about how we manage our bankroll, particularly if you want to follow us.

We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:

* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.

* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.

* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.

Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.

Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.

Free Friday Guest Tipster is Neal Wilkins

It was minus 5 degrees from where Neal Wilkins gave me a call earlier this week.

Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.

For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.

Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.

Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.

Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.

Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.

As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.

We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)

And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.

Good luck!

* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.

Mike Phelan seems set to take over at Burnley FC

When the market was first opened by Victor Chandler on Tuesday, I said it would be nice to have some inside information.

Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.

Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:

Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.

Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”

Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1

Free tips from Neal Wilkins this Friday

This Friday we start up our "Friday Guest Tipster" column again. Last year, guest tipsters helped build our bankroll with a conservative strategy by 300%.

Let's hope we can do that in 2010.

Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.

He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.

Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.

Australian contender title favourite is Kariz Kariuki

For non-Australian readers, this is a reality boxing show aired on pay television. Boxers were in a knockout-style competition and the final will be aired live on Monday night. The winner gets some money and a pro bout.

While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:

Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.

“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.

“He has to start favourite on that alone.”

Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.

“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.

“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”

AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70

Mike Phelan and Steve Coppell favourites for Burnley job

I wish I had some inside information, but this new market will be of interest to English football fans:
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.

Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.

Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”

Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1

Betting in the run

Traditionally, we've been taught to bet before the contest begins.

Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.

Is it worth it?

The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.

Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.

Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.

It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.

Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.

In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.

Betting tip: Know your opposition

How often do you see odds posted as a result of media hype and/or parochial influence.

For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.

You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.

But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.

Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.

This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.

Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?

Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.

Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.

Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.

In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.

Was Soderling a good bet against Federer?

Well done to anyone who took the $3.65 on offer for Robin Soderling to beat Roger Federer in Abu Dhabi.

But I still question whether it was a good bet.

Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.

But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).

You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."

But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.

Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.

Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.

Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.

If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html

New Year's Resolutions

We don't usually follow the crowd, but it's probably timely to let you know what Aussiepunt has in store for 2010:

1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.

2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.

3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.

4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.

5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.

6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.

7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.

8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.

With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!

Computer withdrawal symptoms

It's been a long time since I've been without computer access for a week, and I'm getting severe withdrawals.

Apologies to regular readers of this blog for not updating over the past week, but I'll be back on the air in the new year, at which time we'll have plenty of Winter Olympics tips, soccer, horse racing, the list goes on ... if they compete and there's odds on it, we'll be talking about it.

Until then, happy new year to all.