St Kilda should win this game, but that doesn't mean the Kangaroos' key forwards won't touch the ball. It'll be interesting to see whether the Saints put a hard tag on Liam Anthony.
Anthony vs Goddard vs Dal Santo
Anthony has been a ball magnet throughout the pre-season, and that form continued last week with 14 kicks, 12 handballs and 10 marks. Goddard is generally used as an impact player for the Saints, while Dal Santo's strength is the hard ball gets. Despite being on a losing side, Liam Anthony's fantasy score of 132 was well ahead of Goddard (88) and Dal Santo (77).
Tip: Liam Anthony is likely to be on a losing side, but his work-rate is outstanding. He should win this on form.
Montagna vs Riewoldt vs Hayes
This is a tough one. Montagna (100 points last week) is consistently the highest ball-winner for the Saints, while Riewoldt (111 points last week) will score high due to his leading and marking ability, combined with goal-kicking power - a bit like Jonathan Brown for Brisbane. Hayes (99 points last week) is consistent, but it would surprise if he was the leader of this contest.
Tip: The Saints spread the ball around a lot among their high class midfield. If Riewoldt can kick 6 goals, he should win this match-up.
Harvey vs Ray vs Armitage
Harvey consistently proves why he's a champion, and last week added three goals to his 23 possessions (16 kicks), driving his fantasy score to 93. Farren Ray plays a role for the Saints and can at times rack up plenty of possessions - 76 fantasy points last week was below par for him. David Armitage only managed 10 possessions and 49 fantasy points. He'd have to lift considerably to challenge the other two.
Tip: Harvey should have more time in the midfield which should help him rack up enough points to win, but expect Ray to lift.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Brisbane vs Carlton fantasy results
Winners: Jonathan Brown; Luke Power; Jarred Brennan
That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.
Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?
That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.
Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?
AFL Collingwood vs Melbourne preview
It's interesting to note that the bookies are unwilling to pit Melbourne players against the Melbourne boys, based on the theory that the Pies will well out-possess the Demons.
But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.
Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie
Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.
Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.
Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey
Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.
Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.
Swan vs Didak vs Davis
While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.
Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.
But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.
Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie
Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.
Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.
Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey
Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.
Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.
Swan vs Didak vs Davis
While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.
Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NRL bet of the round North Queensland vs Gold Coast
If you're looking for value, our pick of the round would have to be the Cowboys to overcome the Titans.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
AFL fantasy team scoring system
For those having a punt on the new Sportingbet fantasy challenge, the scoring system goes thus:
Kick 3 points
Handball 2 points
Mark 3 points
Tackle 4 points
Free Kick For 1 point
Free Kick Against 3 points
Hitout 1 point
Goal 6 points
Behind 1 point
Kick 3 points
Handball 2 points
Mark 3 points
Tackle 4 points
Free Kick For 1 point
Free Kick Against 3 points
Hitout 1 point
Goal 6 points
Behind 1 point
Brisbane vs Carlton preview and dream team predictions
Fantasy markets have been drawn for tonight’s Carlton vs Brisbane game in Brisbane. They’ve been cunningly presented by the bookmakers, but that’s the idea.
There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo
Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.
Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.
Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark
This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.
Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.
Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman
Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.
Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.
Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.
There are three groups of three players, so let’s try to separate them. Firstly, we need to keep in mind that Brisbane is a low-possession team. Last week, they were heavily out-possessed by West Coast. Despite their win, they racked up just over 300 possessions, while Carlton amassed almost 400 against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs vs Jonathan Brown vs Andrew Carazzo
Carazzo was magnificent last week with 40 possessions, but Brown’s 5 goals meant he outscored the midfielder in dream team points. Remember, it’s three points for a kick and only two for a handball. Brown had 16 kicks vs 6 handballs, while Carazzo had 21 kicks and 19 handballs. Brown has been talking all week about how Fevola will have a big game against his old club. That’s a nice diversion for a man who is enjoying the freedom of not being double-tagged – he took 14 marks last week. He’s also enjoying Brisbane’s direct style of play. By his standards, Bryce Gibbs (23 possessions) had an average game last week.
Result: Brown to again cut loose across half forward with a high number of marks, but keeping in mind this is probably the most difficult of the three markets.
Marc Murphy vs Luke Power vs Mitch Clark
This is a battle between three players who performed below their usual standard last week. Power was used as a goal sneak, but is likely to be more dynamic in the mid-field this week. Murphy’s 24 possessions and two goals were against weaker opposition, while Clark’s 9 possessions and 15 hitouts only scored him 46 dream team points, half that of his opponents in this market. Remember though, that he was up against Dean Cox last week, and should get many more hitouts against Kreuzer.
Result: Power to have a better week in terms of possessions, although it’ll be close against Murphy.
Jared Brennan vs Heath Scotland vs Justin Sherman
Brisbane tackled fiercely last week and although they didn’t out-possess their opposition, they certainly out-pressured them. Brennan laid 7 tackles, while Serman laid 5. They’re worth 4 points each in the Sportingbet fantasy structure. However, Scotland’s 11 marks at half back helped his score, amid 32 possessions, including 18 kicks. Brennan is a freakish performer, but is also hot and cold. Sherman is steady, and his goal last week helped his score which was still well below that of Brennan and Scotland.
Result: Scotland to again find possessions at half back, and through the middle. He’s a go-to man and should win this race.
Oh, and by the way, Brisbane should win the game. Let's say 24 points.
Racing tips
Here's a few tips which came through today from the watchers at TAB New South Wales. They're not usually far from the mark, so take them or leave them:
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Thursday 1st April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 3 - 6:55pm
No.6 - SEE YOU LATER BOYS
Saturday 3rd April
Rosehill Race 7 - 4:05pm
No.2 - HINCHINBROOK
Saturday 3rd April
Wentworth Park Race 8 - 10:15pm
No.2 - FANCY MANDY
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Thursday 1st April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 3 - 6:55pm
No.6 - SEE YOU LATER BOYS
Saturday 3rd April
Rosehill Race 7 - 4:05pm
No.2 - HINCHINBROOK
Saturday 3rd April
Wentworth Park Race 8 - 10:15pm
No.2 - FANCY MANDY
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tiger Woods action ... everybody wants a bit
Seems everyone wants a piece of Tiger Woods action.
Bookmakers in the UK are taking bets on whether Tiger will hit a tree with his first drive, or whether he'll kiss a blonde on the way to the tee. While this is an outrageous publicity stunt, there will be plenty of opportunities to increase the odds of winning for punters.
Sportingbet in Australia has some terrific exotics, including one which predicts how many birdies Tiger will hit (not how many females will be struck by his golf ball). 0-3 at $3+ isn't a bad option.
Tiger's at $1.08 to make the cut and $1.18 not to finish first.
Below is Victor Chandler's offer. We'll publish more as we hear of them:
Place a bet on the Outright Winner and if your selection fails to win, but finishes ahead of Tiger Woods Victor Chandler will refund your losing stake as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per player. Applies to win only bets and the win part of each-way bets. Applies to singles only, placed via telephone, internet or mobile. Does not apply to in-running bets. Applies to bets on outright market only placed from 30/03/10. Free bets credited 12/04/10.
Bookmakers in the UK are taking bets on whether Tiger will hit a tree with his first drive, or whether he'll kiss a blonde on the way to the tee. While this is an outrageous publicity stunt, there will be plenty of opportunities to increase the odds of winning for punters.
Sportingbet in Australia has some terrific exotics, including one which predicts how many birdies Tiger will hit (not how many females will be struck by his golf ball). 0-3 at $3+ isn't a bad option.
Tiger's at $1.08 to make the cut and $1.18 not to finish first.
Below is Victor Chandler's offer. We'll publish more as we hear of them:
Place a bet on the Outright Winner and if your selection fails to win, but finishes ahead of Tiger Woods Victor Chandler will refund your losing stake as a free bet!
Maximum refund £50 per player. Applies to win only bets and the win part of each-way bets. Applies to singles only, placed via telephone, internet or mobile. Does not apply to in-running bets. Applies to bets on outright market only placed from 30/03/10. Free bets credited 12/04/10.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Golden Slipper update
Before last weekend, we expected the market to bunch up somewhat, which seems to be happening after the barrier draw for the Golden Slipper.
We agree that Military Rose deserves to be favourite, but it is an unpredictable field and could be some value to be had.
From the statements from bookmakers below, punters seem to be looking for value.
More Strawberries jumped badly on Saturday and was caught wide for the majority of the race. The horse battled on gamely and hit the line well despite the unlucky run. That's where the value just might be.
LILY THE ONE TO BEAT IN SLIPPER
Following today's barrier draw, IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey says Crystal Lily is the horse to beat in the 2010 Golden Slipper.
"Crystal Lily ($6.00 into $5.00) is my pick for the Slipper," said IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey. "She's drawn perfectly and should be able to sit in behind the speed. She's a strong filly that will have plenty in hand at the finish and is the one to beat."
Twomey said Military Rose ($3.60) is a deserved favourite but may have a chink in his armour.
"He deserves to be favourite given what he has achieved, but second up after his Magic Millions campaign is a hard task and I think he is vulnerable," said Twomey"
"Brightexpectations ($7.50 into $6.00) also drew well and should get the run of the race."
Shaheeq and More Strawberries (both $15.00 out to $19.00) didn't fare as well in the draw and their odds drifted accordingly.
Market courtesy of IASbet.com
2010 Golden Slipper
$3.60 Military Rose
$5.00 Crystal Lily
$6.00 Brightexpectations
$11.00 Chance Bye
$15.00 Hichinbrook
$11.00 Bennetau
$15.00 Solar Charged
$21.00 Decision Time
$19.00 More Strawberries
$19.00 Shaheeq
$26.00 Obsequious
$51.00 Elimbari
$101.00 Georgette Silk
$51.00 Carved In Stone
$151.00 Lohan
PUNTERS WANT MORE STRAWBERRIES
Sportingbet Australia punters have not been deterred by the wide barrier or late rider change for More Strawberries with two punters backing the Gai Waterhouse filly to win $40,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said More Strawberries was the subject of all the final field Slipper action with her price tumbling in from $21 to $16.
“We wrote a bet of $2000 at $21 and the phone was hardly in the cradle before another punter outlaid $2500 at $19,” said Sullivan.
“While Military Rose is still our worst result, the early action suggests More Strawberries could shorten plenty before the betting’s all done.”
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Brightexpectations 5.00
Crystal Lily 5.50
Chance Bye 11.00
Solar Charged 12.00
Hinchinbrook 12.00
Beneteau 12.00
More Strawberries 16.00
Decision Time 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Obsequious 34.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 81.00
Carved In Stone 101.00
Lohan 151.00
We agree that Military Rose deserves to be favourite, but it is an unpredictable field and could be some value to be had.
From the statements from bookmakers below, punters seem to be looking for value.
More Strawberries jumped badly on Saturday and was caught wide for the majority of the race. The horse battled on gamely and hit the line well despite the unlucky run. That's where the value just might be.
LILY THE ONE TO BEAT IN SLIPPER
Following today's barrier draw, IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey says Crystal Lily is the horse to beat in the 2010 Golden Slipper.
"Crystal Lily ($6.00 into $5.00) is my pick for the Slipper," said IASbet.com's Gerard Twomey. "She's drawn perfectly and should be able to sit in behind the speed. She's a strong filly that will have plenty in hand at the finish and is the one to beat."
Twomey said Military Rose ($3.60) is a deserved favourite but may have a chink in his armour.
"He deserves to be favourite given what he has achieved, but second up after his Magic Millions campaign is a hard task and I think he is vulnerable," said Twomey"
"Brightexpectations ($7.50 into $6.00) also drew well and should get the run of the race."
Shaheeq and More Strawberries (both $15.00 out to $19.00) didn't fare as well in the draw and their odds drifted accordingly.
Market courtesy of IASbet.com
2010 Golden Slipper
$3.60 Military Rose
$5.00 Crystal Lily
$6.00 Brightexpectations
$11.00 Chance Bye
$15.00 Hichinbrook
$11.00 Bennetau
$15.00 Solar Charged
$21.00 Decision Time
$19.00 More Strawberries
$19.00 Shaheeq
$26.00 Obsequious
$51.00 Elimbari
$101.00 Georgette Silk
$51.00 Carved In Stone
$151.00 Lohan
PUNTERS WANT MORE STRAWBERRIES
Sportingbet Australia punters have not been deterred by the wide barrier or late rider change for More Strawberries with two punters backing the Gai Waterhouse filly to win $40,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said More Strawberries was the subject of all the final field Slipper action with her price tumbling in from $21 to $16.
“We wrote a bet of $2000 at $21 and the phone was hardly in the cradle before another punter outlaid $2500 at $19,” said Sullivan.
“While Military Rose is still our worst result, the early action suggests More Strawberries could shorten plenty before the betting’s all done.”
2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Brightexpectations 5.00
Crystal Lily 5.50
Chance Bye 11.00
Solar Charged 12.00
Hinchinbrook 12.00
Beneteau 12.00
More Strawberries 16.00
Decision Time 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Obsequious 34.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 81.00
Carved In Stone 101.00
Lohan 151.00
Gold Logie contenders
On this blog, we often talk about the power of incumbency in elections. The same principle applies with the Gold Logie. Given that it's a public vote, they'll recognise Gibney's name from last year and lodge the vote.
After all, most of them are in it for the prize on offer as an incentive for voting.
My money's with Gibney for this one, as nice as it would be to see Alf get home.
WILL ALF GRAB THE GOLD FROM GIBNEY?
Rebecca Gibney is a heavily backed $1.70 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to take her second consecutive Gold Logie but punters are warming up to the chances of veteran Home and Away actor Ray Meagher.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said, while the big money had been for Gibney, there were plenty wanting to take the $4.50 on offer about Meagher.
“We’ve taken bets including $2000 at $1.90 on Rebecca Gibney but Ray Meagher seems to have all the momentum,” said Sullivan.
“There’s plenty of Alf Stewart fans prepared to put their money where their mouth is.”
Sullivan said Meagher would be favourite if the Gold Logie was industry rather than publicly decided.
“There’s little doubt that Meagher would be rewarded for his years of service if the industry decided this one,” Sullivan said.
“But this is a popularity contest and Rebecca Gibney has been arguably the most popular Australian actress in the past twenty years.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 1.70
Ray Meagher 4.50
Rove McManus 5.00
Adam Hills 8.00
Shaun Micallef 15.00
Will Anderson 26.00
Paul McDermott 34.00
Esther Anderson 41.00
After all, most of them are in it for the prize on offer as an incentive for voting.
My money's with Gibney for this one, as nice as it would be to see Alf get home.
WILL ALF GRAB THE GOLD FROM GIBNEY?
Rebecca Gibney is a heavily backed $1.70 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to take her second consecutive Gold Logie but punters are warming up to the chances of veteran Home and Away actor Ray Meagher.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said, while the big money had been for Gibney, there were plenty wanting to take the $4.50 on offer about Meagher.
“We’ve taken bets including $2000 at $1.90 on Rebecca Gibney but Ray Meagher seems to have all the momentum,” said Sullivan.
“There’s plenty of Alf Stewart fans prepared to put their money where their mouth is.”
Sullivan said Meagher would be favourite if the Gold Logie was industry rather than publicly decided.
“There’s little doubt that Meagher would be rewarded for his years of service if the industry decided this one,” Sullivan said.
“But this is a popularity contest and Rebecca Gibney has been arguably the most popular Australian actress in the past twenty years.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 1.70
Ray Meagher 4.50
Rove McManus 5.00
Adam Hills 8.00
Shaun Micallef 15.00
Will Anderson 26.00
Paul McDermott 34.00
Esther Anderson 41.00
AFL draft system gone wrong
A quick scan through the coming weekend's AFL match odds reveals that the Western Bulldogs are at $1.06 with Sportingbet against Richmond, while Collingwood are at a marginally healthier $1.07 to beat Melbourne.
While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.
Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.
Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.
To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.
A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.
I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!
While that might be good news for anyone looking to remain in a "Last Man Standing" competition, it's sad news for the AFL competition.
Many were hoping that a long list of top 10 draft picks would help both sides make their mark on the competition. But reality is that poor draft management has hurt both clubs, and will for a while yet.
Later in the season, perhaps as classy draft picks mature, either of the sides might start to be competitive. But that won't happen for a couple of months yet.
To take odds as short as those mentioned above, along with the $1.15 on offer for St Kilda against North Melbourne, would seem somewhat pointless and dull for most punters.
A far better option is to delve deeper into your knowledge of the sport with a wide range of exotics now available. The problem for most people is that exotics take time to explore, to find the better options and increase your chances of winning.
I'll go through a few as they're posted, but feel free to help your punting brothers and sisters by sending me a few of your preferred options!
Monday, March 29, 2010
Lionel Messi vs Wayne Rooney goals
This is the latest from Victor Chandler in the UK. It's an interesting market and I'm no genius on Premier League, but Messi is deserved favourite for mine.
Wording as released by the bookmaker is below:
There are two world class strikers on everyone’s lips at the moment, Wayne Rooney and Lionel Messi, and Victor Chandler have opened a market on which one will score the most goals in the Champions League from the Quarter Final stage onwards.
If both Man United and Barcelona get through to the Semi Finals they will avoid each other and many people consider them favourites to contest the Final in Madrid. Messi is the 11/10 favourite with VC and Rooney is 6/4, with the tie at 7/2.
“Rooney and Messi are a class apart at the moment, and their respective clubs will be looking to them to carry on scoring for the remainder of the tournament.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“It should be a fascinating contest to see who’ll bag the most goals.”
Rooney v Messi: Goal Match Bet from Q-Finals Onwards
Lionel Messi 11/10
Tie 7/2
Wayne Rooney 6/4
Wording as released by the bookmaker is below:
There are two world class strikers on everyone’s lips at the moment, Wayne Rooney and Lionel Messi, and Victor Chandler have opened a market on which one will score the most goals in the Champions League from the Quarter Final stage onwards.
If both Man United and Barcelona get through to the Semi Finals they will avoid each other and many people consider them favourites to contest the Final in Madrid. Messi is the 11/10 favourite with VC and Rooney is 6/4, with the tie at 7/2.
“Rooney and Messi are a class apart at the moment, and their respective clubs will be looking to them to carry on scoring for the remainder of the tournament.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.
“It should be a fascinating contest to see who’ll bag the most goals.”
Rooney v Messi: Goal Match Bet from Q-Finals Onwards
Lionel Messi 11/10
Tie 7/2
Wayne Rooney 6/4
BMW horse racing update
As readers of this blog will know, I'm not a big fan of futures betting. I think too many people take short odds too far out from the outcome. Consequently, their choice strikes injury, conditions change, form kicks in or out, lots of things can happen.
There is one situation when futures can work in a punter's favour, however, and that's when they spot a reasonable chance at long odds.
That's what has happened with the BMW. They see a reasonable chance of rain and take mud runners at 100-1. Sadly, the rest of us will now find the 20-1 a little short to worry about!
BIG MONEY FOR WET TRACKERS IN BMW
Punters have backed two long priced mudlarks for this Saturday’s BMW with big bets struck on both Harris Tweed and No Wine No Song at Sportingbet Australia.
Harris Tweed has been backed from $41 to $21 at Sportingbet while No Wine No Song has been the subject of a sustained move that has seen his price shorten up from $101 to $21 in the past week.
“We took bets of $44,000 to $1100 and $34,000 to $1000 each way on Harris Tweed this morning which certainly suggests he has done well since his last start second in New Zealand, “ Said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We laid a bet of $20,000 to $200 each way on No Wine No Song last week and he gradually shortened up to $26 where we took a bet of $50,000 to $2000 each way this morning.
“Both horses have won on heavy tracks so I am sure the punters will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in Sydney this week.”
Theseo is the current $3.20 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Speed Gifted at $6 and Daffodil at $8.00.
The BMW 2010 (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Theseo 3.20
Speed Gifted 6.00
Daffodil 8.00
Moatize 11.00
Littorio 13.00
Roman Emperor 15.00
Vigor 19.00
Purple 21.00
Harris Tweed 21.00
Divine Rebel 21.00
No Wine No Song 21.00
Others $26+
There is one situation when futures can work in a punter's favour, however, and that's when they spot a reasonable chance at long odds.
That's what has happened with the BMW. They see a reasonable chance of rain and take mud runners at 100-1. Sadly, the rest of us will now find the 20-1 a little short to worry about!
BIG MONEY FOR WET TRACKERS IN BMW
Punters have backed two long priced mudlarks for this Saturday’s BMW with big bets struck on both Harris Tweed and No Wine No Song at Sportingbet Australia.
Harris Tweed has been backed from $41 to $21 at Sportingbet while No Wine No Song has been the subject of a sustained move that has seen his price shorten up from $101 to $21 in the past week.
“We took bets of $44,000 to $1100 and $34,000 to $1000 each way on Harris Tweed this morning which certainly suggests he has done well since his last start second in New Zealand, “ Said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We laid a bet of $20,000 to $200 each way on No Wine No Song last week and he gradually shortened up to $26 where we took a bet of $50,000 to $2000 each way this morning.
“Both horses have won on heavy tracks so I am sure the punters will be hoping the forecast rain arrives in Sydney this week.”
Theseo is the current $3.20 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Speed Gifted at $6 and Daffodil at $8.00.
The BMW 2010 (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Theseo 3.20
Speed Gifted 6.00
Daffodil 8.00
Moatize 11.00
Littorio 13.00
Roman Emperor 15.00
Vigor 19.00
Purple 21.00
Harris Tweed 21.00
Divine Rebel 21.00
No Wine No Song 21.00
Others $26+
Collingwood premiership chances
Collingwood fans have reason to be excited after the weekend's clash against premiership favourites, the Western Bulldogs.
In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.
The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.
But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.
Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.
In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.
The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.
But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.
Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.
Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Australian Grand Prix results Melbourne
Anyone who picked Button to repeat his effort of last year would have netted a very nice 17-1.
Here are the final race positions:
1 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:33:36.531
2 Robert Kubica Renault 58 +12.0 secs
3 Felipe Massa Ferrari 58 +14.4 secs
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 58 +16.3 secs
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP 58 +16.6 secs
6 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 58 +29.8 secs
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 58 +59.8 secs
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 58 +60.5 secs
9 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 58 +67.3 secs
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP 58 +69.3 secs
11 Jaime Alguersuari STR-Ferrari 58 +71.3 secs
12 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 58 +74.0 secs
13 Heikki Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 56 +2 Laps
14 Karun Chandhok HRT-Cosworth 53 +5 Laps
Ret Timo Glock Virgin-Cosworth 41 +17 Laps
Ret Lucas di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 26 +32 Laps
Ret Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 25 +33 Laps
Ret Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 9 Engine
Ret Vitaly Petrov Renault 9 +49 Laps
Ret Bruno Senna HRT-Cosworth 4 +54 Laps
Ret Sebastien Buemi STR-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 0 Accident
Ret Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Jarno Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 0 Hydraulics
Here are the final race positions:
1 Jenson Button McLaren-Mercedes 1:33:36.531
2 Robert Kubica Renault 58 +12.0 secs
3 Felipe Massa Ferrari 58 +14.4 secs
4 Fernando Alonso Ferrari 58 +16.3 secs
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes GP 58 +16.6 secs
6 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes 58 +29.8 secs
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi Force India-Mercedes 58 +59.8 secs
8 Rubens Barrichello Williams-Cosworth 58 +60.5 secs
9 Mark Webber RBR-Renault 58 +67.3 secs
10 Michael Schumacher Mercedes GP 58 +69.3 secs
11 Jaime Alguersuari STR-Ferrari 58 +71.3 secs
12 Pedro de la Rosa BMW Sauber-Ferrari 58 +74.0 secs
13 Heikki Kovalainen Lotus-Cosworth 56 +2 Laps
14 Karun Chandhok HRT-Cosworth 53 +5 Laps
Ret Timo Glock Virgin-Cosworth 41 +17 Laps
Ret Lucas di Grassi Virgin-Cosworth 26 +32 Laps
Ret Sebastian Vettel RBR-Renault 25 +33 Laps
Ret Adrian Sutil Force India-Mercedes 9 Engine
Ret Vitaly Petrov Renault 9 +49 Laps
Ret Bruno Senna HRT-Cosworth 4 +54 Laps
Ret Sebastien Buemi STR-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Nico Hulkenberg Williams-Cosworth 0 Accident
Ret Kamui Kobayashi BMW Sauber-Ferrari 0 Accident
Ret Jarno Trulli Lotus-Cosworth 0 Hydraulics
Fantasy team punting
A number of people I've spoken to recently say they don't have time to get involved with Fantasy Leagues and competitions. And where there's no return, I can't blame them - actually, I'm in exactly the same boat.
But I've been sucked in by Sportingbet's innovation for this year's footy season. It works the same way as a 3-ball in golf betting, that is three players are pitted head to head. Their performance on the field dictates how many points they get.
And put simply, the player with the most fantasy points at the end of the game is declared the winner.
It's three points for a kick, two points for a handball, four for a tackle etc. Anyway, I'll be giving an analysis of some of the markets over the next couple of weeks.
I've found that it's a great way to watch the game. Regardless of the result, your player is still in the contest until the end. It's great fun and an added interest in the game. There are also opportunities to make some real money as most picks are around the $2.50-$2.80 mark.
We'll discuss a few AFL options as markets are posted towards the middle of the week.
Until then, if you want to put a few dollars into an account with Sportingbet and have a look at what the whole Fantasy betting is all about, do it here.
But I've been sucked in by Sportingbet's innovation for this year's footy season. It works the same way as a 3-ball in golf betting, that is three players are pitted head to head. Their performance on the field dictates how many points they get.
And put simply, the player with the most fantasy points at the end of the game is declared the winner.
It's three points for a kick, two points for a handball, four for a tackle etc. Anyway, I'll be giving an analysis of some of the markets over the next couple of weeks.
I've found that it's a great way to watch the game. Regardless of the result, your player is still in the contest until the end. It's great fun and an added interest in the game. There are also opportunities to make some real money as most picks are around the $2.50-$2.80 mark.
We'll discuss a few AFL options as markets are posted towards the middle of the week.
Until then, if you want to put a few dollars into an account with Sportingbet and have a look at what the whole Fantasy betting is all about, do it here.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Pago Pago Stakes Hinchinbrook chances
This release doesn't surprise me, particularly given the poor running of other Golden Slipper chances over recent weeks.
But expect a bold showing from Hinchinbrook and also expect the odds to bunch up in the week leading up to the Slipper.
NO LOVE FOR HINCHINBROOK
Punters are shying away from taking the short odds on offer for Hinchinbrook in Saturday’s Pago Pago with significant betting moves for Brightexpectations and Pressday at Sportingbet Australia.
Brightexpectations has been backed from $4.50 to $2.70 at Sportingbet Australia while Pressday has been the subject of some big bets and had shortened from $7.00 to $5.00.
“Pressday and Brightexpectations are certainly the two the punters have landed on and we are finding it difficult to lay Hinchinbrook at this stage,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We took a bet of $6000 each way at the $7.00 on Pressday and a bet to take out over $25,000 on Brightexpectations not long after opening the market.
“Both horses need to win to gain a Golden Slipper run so they should be fully wound up for this while Hinchinbrook may still have a little improvement to come.”
Hinchinbrook is out $2.25 at Sportingbet Australia but Sullivan said he expected the support to arrive before race time.
He has drifted significantly even with the scratching of Carved in Stone who looked a real contender but he was very impressive last start so I am sure punters will come for him,” Sullivan said.
“It is clear however, they don’t think Hinchinbrook is across the line as the early money has all been for Brightexpectations and Pressday.”
PAGO PAGO STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hinchinbrook 2.25
Brightexpectations 2.70
Pressday 5.00
Skorost 13.00
Dux Bellorum 21.00
Blackball 31.00
Gold Arena 31.00
Unflinchingresolve 41.00
The Last General 71.00
Choiseul 81.00
But expect a bold showing from Hinchinbrook and also expect the odds to bunch up in the week leading up to the Slipper.
NO LOVE FOR HINCHINBROOK
Punters are shying away from taking the short odds on offer for Hinchinbrook in Saturday’s Pago Pago with significant betting moves for Brightexpectations and Pressday at Sportingbet Australia.
Brightexpectations has been backed from $4.50 to $2.70 at Sportingbet Australia while Pressday has been the subject of some big bets and had shortened from $7.00 to $5.00.
“Pressday and Brightexpectations are certainly the two the punters have landed on and we are finding it difficult to lay Hinchinbrook at this stage,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“We took a bet of $6000 each way at the $7.00 on Pressday and a bet to take out over $25,000 on Brightexpectations not long after opening the market.
“Both horses need to win to gain a Golden Slipper run so they should be fully wound up for this while Hinchinbrook may still have a little improvement to come.”
Hinchinbrook is out $2.25 at Sportingbet Australia but Sullivan said he expected the support to arrive before race time.
He has drifted significantly even with the scratching of Carved in Stone who looked a real contender but he was very impressive last start so I am sure punters will come for him,” Sullivan said.
“It is clear however, they don’t think Hinchinbrook is across the line as the early money has all been for Brightexpectations and Pressday.”
PAGO PAGO STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hinchinbrook 2.25
Brightexpectations 2.70
Pressday 5.00
Skorost 13.00
Dux Bellorum 21.00
Blackball 31.00
Gold Arena 31.00
Unflinchingresolve 41.00
The Last General 71.00
Choiseul 81.00
Congratulations to Sydney Triple M Grill Team
This is not normal for this blog, but I was touched by big Mark Geyer's outburst of emotion on this morning's radio show, on Sydney's Triple M Grill Team.
MG's tears during a tribute to Oscar Buhagiar - the 6-year-old number 1 Eels fan who lost his battle against cancer on Monday - showed a softer side of the hard man of rugby league.
Well done to the team for embracing emotion. And well done to the Eels for creating jerseys to remember their gutsy supporter.
As a journalist, we're taught to be objective in everything we do and it goes against the grain to praise a commercial enterprise, or for that matter others in the media industry.
But this is a worthy exception. The emotion of the tribute to Oscar, coupled with one of the funniest Gotcha calls I've heard, along with a giveaway (sending people to the Formule 1 at the airport) made it one of the best mornings of radio I've experienced.
Congratulations to the entire team. You deserve it.
MG's tears during a tribute to Oscar Buhagiar - the 6-year-old number 1 Eels fan who lost his battle against cancer on Monday - showed a softer side of the hard man of rugby league.
Well done to the team for embracing emotion. And well done to the Eels for creating jerseys to remember their gutsy supporter.
As a journalist, we're taught to be objective in everything we do and it goes against the grain to praise a commercial enterprise, or for that matter others in the media industry.
But this is a worthy exception. The emotion of the tribute to Oscar, coupled with one of the funniest Gotcha calls I've heard, along with a giveaway (sending people to the Formule 1 at the airport) made it one of the best mornings of radio I've experienced.
Congratulations to the entire team. You deserve it.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Carlton vs Richmond preview
We can dig deep into analysis of this game, but it’s a case of the under-performing knowns (Carlton) up against the under-performing unknowns (Richmond).
That might at first sound like some sort of cellar science experiment, but the theory is really simple. Carlton has a solid lineup which should now be consolidating a place in the finals.
But it look seriously like 2010 will be another season teetering on the edge of the top 8. It might be that if they win tonight, they’ll sneak into the finals. If they lose, after just one round, their season is almost gone.
Waite, Scotland, Thornton, Murphy, Simpson, McLean, Kreuzer, O’Hailpin. This list is an accomplished one and should pull the Blues through the game without the services of star performer Chris Judd. The absence of Judd probably accounts for the generous $1.45 being paid by some bookmakers.
Richmond on the other hand has a list still unknown to most AFL watchers. All eyes will be on star draft pick Dustin Martin. Mitchell Farmer is another one. Ben Cousins is always an unknown and given he’s been suffering flu symptoms, that just increases the mystery. Nahas, Morton, and others have had games and performed okay in the big-stage environment. But will they stand up enough to win games?
The bottom line here: Expect a bold showing from the Tigers, but Carlton – even without Judd, should be able to find enough cohesion to take the points, by 20.
Fantasy team bargain: Watch for Mitch Robinson to pick up a mountain of possession, drawing from last year’s experience to become a key player in the Blues lineup.
That might at first sound like some sort of cellar science experiment, but the theory is really simple. Carlton has a solid lineup which should now be consolidating a place in the finals.
But it look seriously like 2010 will be another season teetering on the edge of the top 8. It might be that if they win tonight, they’ll sneak into the finals. If they lose, after just one round, their season is almost gone.
Waite, Scotland, Thornton, Murphy, Simpson, McLean, Kreuzer, O’Hailpin. This list is an accomplished one and should pull the Blues through the game without the services of star performer Chris Judd. The absence of Judd probably accounts for the generous $1.45 being paid by some bookmakers.
Richmond on the other hand has a list still unknown to most AFL watchers. All eyes will be on star draft pick Dustin Martin. Mitchell Farmer is another one. Ben Cousins is always an unknown and given he’s been suffering flu symptoms, that just increases the mystery. Nahas, Morton, and others have had games and performed okay in the big-stage environment. But will they stand up enough to win games?
The bottom line here: Expect a bold showing from the Tigers, but Carlton – even without Judd, should be able to find enough cohesion to take the points, by 20.
Fantasy team bargain: Watch for Mitch Robinson to pick up a mountain of possession, drawing from last year’s experience to become a key player in the Blues lineup.
Matty Johns footy show
This is a tough one.
The Matty Johns show in its first week will little doubt grab heaps of attention and will likely out-do the Channel 9 version.
Don't expect that to happen into the second week, but it's this week that counts.
WILL MATTY JOHNS OUTRATE THE FOOTY SHOW?
The new Matty Johns Rugby League Show is a $1.85 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to rate higher than the established NRL Footy Show.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there was much anticipation about Channel 7’s new NRL venture.
“We think the hype will lead to viewers tuning in tonight to see what the Matty Johns Show is all about,” said Sullivan.
“While it may struggle to maintain a long term advantage over it’s more established rival, we think tonight will be a success.”
Sportingbet Australia is betting on the highest median rating for the shows in NSW and Queensland.
MATTY JOHNS SHOW v NRL FOOTY SHOW – HIGHEST RATINGS 25 MARCH
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
Matty Johns Show 1.85
NRL Footy Show 1.95
The Matty Johns show in its first week will little doubt grab heaps of attention and will likely out-do the Channel 9 version.
Don't expect that to happen into the second week, but it's this week that counts.
WILL MATTY JOHNS OUTRATE THE FOOTY SHOW?
The new Matty Johns Rugby League Show is a $1.85 favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to rate higher than the established NRL Footy Show.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there was much anticipation about Channel 7’s new NRL venture.
“We think the hype will lead to viewers tuning in tonight to see what the Matty Johns Show is all about,” said Sullivan.
“While it may struggle to maintain a long term advantage over it’s more established rival, we think tonight will be a success.”
Sportingbet Australia is betting on the highest median rating for the shows in NSW and Queensland.
MATTY JOHNS SHOW v NRL FOOTY SHOW – HIGHEST RATINGS 25 MARCH
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
Matty Johns Show 1.85
NRL Footy Show 1.95
Rosehill Guineas update
Let's just add to this little announcement that both Run for Naara and Hanks are very well priced for this race.
$25,000 BET FOR QUEENSLAND ACE IN GUINEAS SHOOT OUT
In form Queensland gelding, Shoot Out, has been heavily backed to continue his winning form in Saturday’s Rosehill Guineas with one punter investing $25,000 on him at Sportingbet Australia.
The John Wallace trained three year old is solid at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Shoot Out would be hard to beat, there did look to be a few runners who would be helped by the step up to 2000 metres.
“Shoot Out has been very heavily backed all preparation with punters landing a plunge in the Royal Sovereign, launching again when he just missed in the Hobartville and backing up when he won the Randwick Guineas,” Sullivan said.
“This week looks like being no different with the $25,000 leading the charge but there have been plenty of other bets.
“There’s no doubt that Shoot Out looks the pick of the three year olds but he is on trial at this trip.
“Captain Sonador, Run For Naara and Hanks will all benefit from the extra trip and Rock Classic returns home after conquering Set For Fame and Denman in the Australian Guineas.”
ROSEHILL GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rock Classic 3.00
Shoot Out 3.50
Zabrasive 5.50
Captain Sonador 9.00
Run For Naara 12.00
Hanks 14.00
Kidnapped 14.00
Extra Zero 17.00
Gathering 26.00
Cosmocrat 41.00
Saint Encosta 101.00
$25,000 BET FOR QUEENSLAND ACE IN GUINEAS SHOOT OUT
In form Queensland gelding, Shoot Out, has been heavily backed to continue his winning form in Saturday’s Rosehill Guineas with one punter investing $25,000 on him at Sportingbet Australia.
The John Wallace trained three year old is solid at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Shoot Out would be hard to beat, there did look to be a few runners who would be helped by the step up to 2000 metres.
“Shoot Out has been very heavily backed all preparation with punters landing a plunge in the Royal Sovereign, launching again when he just missed in the Hobartville and backing up when he won the Randwick Guineas,” Sullivan said.
“This week looks like being no different with the $25,000 leading the charge but there have been plenty of other bets.
“There’s no doubt that Shoot Out looks the pick of the three year olds but he is on trial at this trip.
“Captain Sonador, Run For Naara and Hanks will all benefit from the extra trip and Rock Classic returns home after conquering Set For Fame and Denman in the Australian Guineas.”
ROSEHILL GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rock Classic 3.00
Shoot Out 3.50
Zabrasive 5.50
Captain Sonador 9.00
Run For Naara 12.00
Hanks 14.00
Kidnapped 14.00
Extra Zero 17.00
Gathering 26.00
Cosmocrat 41.00
Saint Encosta 101.00
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Golden Slipper ... if the shoe fits, back it
Golden Slipper odds are up and down at a faster rate than a uni student on viagra.
As soon as there's a whisper, a race run and won, or something on the rumour mill, the fluctuations kick in.
Earlier in the week, I said the shortened odds on Military Rose were premature, given that a number of horses in the field still had some opportunities to prove themselves.
This means there will be plenty of fluctuation yet. One of those horses yet to run is Beneteau which was the subject of the below media release. But there are others, not the least of them Hinchinbrook which is set to run this weekend.
There is likely to be money for Masquerader and Crystal Lily will almost certainly shorten if and when nominated. Watching the market movements is an interesting spectator sport in its own.
BENETEAU BACK IN FAVOUR
Former Golden Slipper favourite Beneteau has been the heavily backed in the past 24 hours shortening from $16 to $11 at Sportingbet Australia.
Beneteau had been a $7.50 joint favourite for the Slipper before disappointing behind Hinchinbrook last start but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters still thought he could win the big one.
“One punter backed him to win $40,000 while we also took bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 this week, Sullivan said.
“He was a little disappointing last start when a raging favourite but he covered more ground than the early explorers and punters have forgiven that run.”
“He has been clearly been the best backed horse this week with the exception of Military Rose who is now a raging Slipper favourite.”
Military Rose is the $3.00 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Crystal Lily at $5.75 and Chance Bye at $8.50.
“Military Rose has been the one the punters have wanted all week with a bet of $100,000 leading the charge,” Sullivan said.
“Hinchinbrook is the other horse interesting punters and he could well be the big shortener if he impresses in the Pago Pago.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Beneteau 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Skilled 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
As soon as there's a whisper, a race run and won, or something on the rumour mill, the fluctuations kick in.
Earlier in the week, I said the shortened odds on Military Rose were premature, given that a number of horses in the field still had some opportunities to prove themselves.
This means there will be plenty of fluctuation yet. One of those horses yet to run is Beneteau which was the subject of the below media release. But there are others, not the least of them Hinchinbrook which is set to run this weekend.
There is likely to be money for Masquerader and Crystal Lily will almost certainly shorten if and when nominated. Watching the market movements is an interesting spectator sport in its own.
BENETEAU BACK IN FAVOUR
Former Golden Slipper favourite Beneteau has been the heavily backed in the past 24 hours shortening from $16 to $11 at Sportingbet Australia.
Beneteau had been a $7.50 joint favourite for the Slipper before disappointing behind Hinchinbrook last start but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters still thought he could win the big one.
“One punter backed him to win $40,000 while we also took bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 this week, Sullivan said.
“He was a little disappointing last start when a raging favourite but he covered more ground than the early explorers and punters have forgiven that run.”
“He has been clearly been the best backed horse this week with the exception of Military Rose who is now a raging Slipper favourite.”
Military Rose is the $3.00 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Crystal Lily at $5.75 and Chance Bye at $8.50.
“Military Rose has been the one the punters have wanted all week with a bet of $100,000 leading the charge,” Sullivan said.
“Hinchinbrook is the other horse interesting punters and he could well be the big shortener if he impresses in the Pago Pago.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Beneteau 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Skilled 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix preview
Bahrain proved nothing which is why the odds are as open as they are for the Australian Grand Prix.
The fastest times are being posted by Lewis Hamilton's Red Bull car, both in practice sessions and on the rare occasions cars experienced a dry Bahrain track.
If that's the case, he'll be out to prove he's the one to beat for the championship, taking note that the past four World Champions have been winners of the Melbourne event. At $7.50, it's tasty odds on what could be considered a realistic 3-1 chance.
Webber's odds can only be explained by the media hype in Australia which has surrounded his two victories. Notably the man who was not overly liked by the media has all of a sudden been labelled a national hero by 60 Minutes.
Isn't it odd how the worm turns?
Anyway, here's the latest frame from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS KEEN ON WEBBER'S CHANCES
Aussie punters are getting on board Mark Webber’s attempt to win his maiden Australian GP with the Red Bull driver backed in from $13 to $8 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was the only one punters wanted in the lead up to the race.
“There’s a sprinkle of money for Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher but we’re writing six bets on Webber for every bet on any opponent at this stage,” said Sullivan.
“He’s looked nice and relaxed since he’s been in Australia and the punters think he’s a huge chance on Sunday.”
Fernando Alonso heads betting at $3, ahead of Vettel at $3.50 and Felipe Massa at $6.50.
Seven time World Champion Michael Schumacher is at $21 to mark his return to Australia with a win.
AUSTRALIAN F1 GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Fernando Alonso [FER] 3.00
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.50
Felipe Massa [FER] 6.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 7.50
Mark Webber [RED] 8.00
Jenson Button [McL] 17.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 21.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 21.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 67.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 81.00
Rubens Barrichello [WIL] 81.00
Others 101.00 Plus
The fastest times are being posted by Lewis Hamilton's Red Bull car, both in practice sessions and on the rare occasions cars experienced a dry Bahrain track.
If that's the case, he'll be out to prove he's the one to beat for the championship, taking note that the past four World Champions have been winners of the Melbourne event. At $7.50, it's tasty odds on what could be considered a realistic 3-1 chance.
Webber's odds can only be explained by the media hype in Australia which has surrounded his two victories. Notably the man who was not overly liked by the media has all of a sudden been labelled a national hero by 60 Minutes.
Isn't it odd how the worm turns?
Anyway, here's the latest frame from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS KEEN ON WEBBER'S CHANCES
Aussie punters are getting on board Mark Webber’s attempt to win his maiden Australian GP with the Red Bull driver backed in from $13 to $8 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was the only one punters wanted in the lead up to the race.
“There’s a sprinkle of money for Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher but we’re writing six bets on Webber for every bet on any opponent at this stage,” said Sullivan.
“He’s looked nice and relaxed since he’s been in Australia and the punters think he’s a huge chance on Sunday.”
Fernando Alonso heads betting at $3, ahead of Vettel at $3.50 and Felipe Massa at $6.50.
Seven time World Champion Michael Schumacher is at $21 to mark his return to Australia with a win.
AUSTRALIAN F1 GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Fernando Alonso [FER] 3.00
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.50
Felipe Massa [FER] 6.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 7.50
Mark Webber [RED] 8.00
Jenson Button [McL] 17.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 21.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 21.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 67.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 81.00
Rubens Barrichello [WIL] 81.00
Others 101.00 Plus
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
AFL season preview
I enjoy the rugby league, rugby union, soccer (football), winter sports and pretty much any other sport which makes its way onto my television screen.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
Socceroos new coach
The bookmakers have posted odds on who will become the Socceroos next coach.
But it's a bunch of names posted on what would normally be regarded as the second line of betting.
Unless you have some inside information (if so, we'd like you to share), this is a pie in the sky speculator, and I think we can find some better $5-8 chances with greater prospects of a positive outcome.
In short, there's little value here as it seems the bookies are feeling out the market to see whether there's any backroom discussion. If so, it'll be quickly leaked into the betting arena.
WHO WILL COACH THE SOCCEROOS?
Sportingbet Australia has installed Feyenoord Technical Director Leo Beenhakker as a $4.80 favourite to lead the Socceroos to the 2014 World Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Beenhakker’s experience made him a logical favourite.
“If Beenhakker is interested it will take a pretty good CV to beat him for the job,” said Sullivan.
“With stints in charge of clubs like Ajax and Real Madrid and the Dutch, Polish, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago national sides he certainly has the kind of experience needed.”
Others in the market include Frenchman Philippe Troussier, current technical director Hans Berger and perennial Aussie favourite Guus Hiddink .
“You’d think Hiddink would only be a rough chance to want the job back,” said Sullivan.
“But if he does put his hand up the job would no doubt be his.”
NEXT SOCCEROOS COACH
Sportingbet Australia Market
Leo Beenhakker 4.80
Philippe Troussier 5.00
Guus Hiddink 5.50
Johan Neeskens 6.00
Jan Versleijen 6.00
Hans Berger 6.00
Frank Rijkaard 8.00
Vitislav Lavicka 17.00
Steve McClaren 21.00
Ricky Herbert 26.00
Martin Jol 26.00
Aurelio Vidmar 51.00
But it's a bunch of names posted on what would normally be regarded as the second line of betting.
Unless you have some inside information (if so, we'd like you to share), this is a pie in the sky speculator, and I think we can find some better $5-8 chances with greater prospects of a positive outcome.
In short, there's little value here as it seems the bookies are feeling out the market to see whether there's any backroom discussion. If so, it'll be quickly leaked into the betting arena.
WHO WILL COACH THE SOCCEROOS?
Sportingbet Australia has installed Feyenoord Technical Director Leo Beenhakker as a $4.80 favourite to lead the Socceroos to the 2014 World Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Beenhakker’s experience made him a logical favourite.
“If Beenhakker is interested it will take a pretty good CV to beat him for the job,” said Sullivan.
“With stints in charge of clubs like Ajax and Real Madrid and the Dutch, Polish, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago national sides he certainly has the kind of experience needed.”
Others in the market include Frenchman Philippe Troussier, current technical director Hans Berger and perennial Aussie favourite Guus Hiddink .
“You’d think Hiddink would only be a rough chance to want the job back,” said Sullivan.
“But if he does put his hand up the job would no doubt be his.”
NEXT SOCCEROOS COACH
Sportingbet Australia Market
Leo Beenhakker 4.80
Philippe Troussier 5.00
Guus Hiddink 5.50
Johan Neeskens 6.00
Jan Versleijen 6.00
Hans Berger 6.00
Frank Rijkaard 8.00
Vitislav Lavicka 17.00
Steve McClaren 21.00
Ricky Herbert 26.00
Martin Jol 26.00
Aurelio Vidmar 51.00
Monday, March 22, 2010
Golden Slipper update
In an earlier post today, I expressed my views on the Golden Slipper field, saying any bet on the favourite would have to be carefully thought out, rather than driven by media hype, or the fact Military Rose was able to beat home Solar Charged at the weekend.
Well, if it's any indication, we'd hope that a $100,000 bet was carefully thought out:
GOLDEN SLIPPER: $100,000 BET ON MILITARY ROSE
Military Rose is set to start as one of the shortest priced Golden Slipper favourites in years after some enormous bets were placed on the Queensland filly at Sportingbet Australia following her win in the Reisling.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters have crashed her price into $3.00 with a string of bets on Saturday night and Sunday.
“We went back up at $3.40 on Saturday afternoon and immediately got claimed with a bet of $100,000,” Sullivan said.
“Since the Reisling, she has been the only horse punters have been interested in backing which isn’t surprising given how she dealt with a quality field which included former Slipper favourite, Solar Charged.”
“The way she won the Magic Millions her win on Saturday will ensure she starts a short priced favourite unless we see something special from Hinchinbrook or something else in the Pago Pago this weekend.”
Crystal Lily who isn’t nominated for the Slipper is on the second line of betting at $5.75 with Sportingbet ahead of fairytale filly Chance Bye at $8.50, with Hinchinbrook the first of the colts at $9.00.
“The three fillies are certainly the ones to beat at the moment but Hinchinbrook could be the big shortener if he wins well on Saturday,” Sullivan said.
2010 Golden Slipper (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Well, if it's any indication, we'd hope that a $100,000 bet was carefully thought out:
GOLDEN SLIPPER: $100,000 BET ON MILITARY ROSE
Military Rose is set to start as one of the shortest priced Golden Slipper favourites in years after some enormous bets were placed on the Queensland filly at Sportingbet Australia following her win in the Reisling.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters have crashed her price into $3.00 with a string of bets on Saturday night and Sunday.
“We went back up at $3.40 on Saturday afternoon and immediately got claimed with a bet of $100,000,” Sullivan said.
“Since the Reisling, she has been the only horse punters have been interested in backing which isn’t surprising given how she dealt with a quality field which included former Slipper favourite, Solar Charged.”
“The way she won the Magic Millions her win on Saturday will ensure she starts a short priced favourite unless we see something special from Hinchinbrook or something else in the Pago Pago this weekend.”
Crystal Lily who isn’t nominated for the Slipper is on the second line of betting at $5.75 with Sportingbet ahead of fairytale filly Chance Bye at $8.50, with Hinchinbrook the first of the colts at $9.00.
“The three fillies are certainly the ones to beat at the moment but Hinchinbrook could be the big shortener if he wins well on Saturday,” Sullivan said.
2010 Golden Slipper (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
AFL Year of the Full Forward
The Coleman this year is likely to see a return of the spearhead full forward, particularly with Barry Hall clearly in the picture for the Western Bulldogs.
It might be a bit extreme to think that a first-year recruit will win the medal and upstage some rivals. Podsiadly will certainly be fed some good ball, but Geelong has a long list of goalkickers in its side.
Lance Franklin didn't shine last year, but expect him to be a more likely target for the Hawks this year.
Advice: Wait for three or four rounds into the competition before making a call. The favourites won't firm much, but you'll have a far better idea about who might come from behind to win it.
If Franklin or Fevola kick 10 in their first game, their odds will plummet, but it's far better getting an educated idea on shorter odds than to take a wild punt in the futures market.
PODSIADLY PRICE SLASHED IN COLEMAN MARKET
Following news that Geelong has promoted James Podsiadly to its senior list, online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has trimmed the 28-year-old’s price to win the Coleman Medal in his debut season from $81 to $51.
This follows earlier ‘speccing’ on Podsiadly where one punter had $1000 on the Cat forward to win the Coleman at the astronomical odds of $501 for a potential $500,000 pay day.
“We stand to lose half a million on Podsiadly in one bet, let alone tens of thousands more from punters who backed him at $81 before the announcement of his promotion,” said Lane.
While Podsiadly is the bookie’s worst result, Lane said the biggest plunge had been saved for Western Bulldogs spearhead Barry Hall.
“Barry Hall has been the big firmer in Coleman Medal betting. You could get $17 about him in mid-February, now he’s the third favourite in betting at $6.50,” said Lane.
“Since the NAB Cup Grand Final, four out of every five bets we’ve taken on the Coleman have been on Big Bad Barry.”
Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin is favourite to take home the Coleman at $4, while Lions new recruit Brendan Fevola is the next best at $4.50.
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 COLEMAN MEDAL
$4 Lance Franklin
$4.50 Brendan Fevola
$6.50 Barry Hall (in from $17)
$12 Daniel Bradshaw
$14 Jonathan Brown
$15 Matthew Pavlich
$15 Nick Riewoldt
$17 Jarryd Roughead
$21 Kurt Tippett
$26 Marc Lecras
$34 John Anthony
$41 Jason Porplyzia
$41 Justin Koschitzke
$51 James Podsiadly (in from $501)
It might be a bit extreme to think that a first-year recruit will win the medal and upstage some rivals. Podsiadly will certainly be fed some good ball, but Geelong has a long list of goalkickers in its side.
Lance Franklin didn't shine last year, but expect him to be a more likely target for the Hawks this year.
Advice: Wait for three or four rounds into the competition before making a call. The favourites won't firm much, but you'll have a far better idea about who might come from behind to win it.
If Franklin or Fevola kick 10 in their first game, their odds will plummet, but it's far better getting an educated idea on shorter odds than to take a wild punt in the futures market.
PODSIADLY PRICE SLASHED IN COLEMAN MARKET
Following news that Geelong has promoted James Podsiadly to its senior list, online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has trimmed the 28-year-old’s price to win the Coleman Medal in his debut season from $81 to $51.
This follows earlier ‘speccing’ on Podsiadly where one punter had $1000 on the Cat forward to win the Coleman at the astronomical odds of $501 for a potential $500,000 pay day.
“We stand to lose half a million on Podsiadly in one bet, let alone tens of thousands more from punters who backed him at $81 before the announcement of his promotion,” said Lane.
While Podsiadly is the bookie’s worst result, Lane said the biggest plunge had been saved for Western Bulldogs spearhead Barry Hall.
“Barry Hall has been the big firmer in Coleman Medal betting. You could get $17 about him in mid-February, now he’s the third favourite in betting at $6.50,” said Lane.
“Since the NAB Cup Grand Final, four out of every five bets we’ve taken on the Coleman have been on Big Bad Barry.”
Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin is favourite to take home the Coleman at $4, while Lions new recruit Brendan Fevola is the next best at $4.50.
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 COLEMAN MEDAL
$4 Lance Franklin
$4.50 Brendan Fevola
$6.50 Barry Hall (in from $17)
$12 Daniel Bradshaw
$14 Jonathan Brown
$15 Matthew Pavlich
$15 Nick Riewoldt
$17 Jarryd Roughead
$21 Kurt Tippett
$26 Marc Lecras
$34 John Anthony
$41 Jason Porplyzia
$41 Justin Koschitzke
$51 James Podsiadly (in from $501)
NRL comebacks set the trend
Rugby League is fast becoming like horse racing in that it’s more common for the front runner to be overtaken at the line.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
Military Rose run fantastic
Military Rose has shot in more than 5 points with most bookies, and it was on the back of a very impressive run on Saturday.
But you'd swear the Golden Slipper was a two-horse race. If it was, it would seem almost certain that Military Rose has the measure of Solar Charged, and the odds would be warranted.
But now that the favourite has been backed so short, let's be sure to take a look at the other top chances in the field. Forget Star Witness, its run on Saturday was appalling.
Masquerader, however, had a fantastic run. And there are four or five other top chances likely to race this weekend.
My advice: Don't get caught up in the media hype, rather take a deep breath and look at each chance on its merit and form. Military Rose is a good horse and deserves to be the top chance, but 5 points is ridiculous.
MILITARY ROSE NEW SLIPPER FAVOURITE AS FANCY’S FLOP
Military Rose has stamped herself as a dominant Golden Slipper favourite after easily accounting for former favourite, Solar Charged, in the Riesling Stakes.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Magic Millions winning filly’s odds had been slashed too $3.40 and she looked a bullet proof type who would be very hard to beat in the Slipper.
“She is a clear favourite now with the second pick being Crystal Lily who isn’t even nominated yet,” Sullivan said.
“The fillies certainly look to have an edge this year with fairytale horse Chance Bye on the third line of betting.
“Hinchinbrook is the first of the colts and geldings at $9.00 alongside Todman winner Masquerader who is another not nominated at this stage.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged and Star Witness had been the big drifters in Slipper betting following disappointing runs.
“Solar Charged drifted from $4 to $11 and while you wouldn’t write her off, it is hard to see her turning the tables on Military Rose,” Sullivan said.
“Star Witness went from $6.50 to $17 and given he isn’t nominated, it would have to be unlikely for him to pay up now.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.40
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.00
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Masquerader (nn) 9.00
Solar Charged 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 17.00
Star Witness (nn) 17.00
Psychologist 18.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Skilled 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Obsequious 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Needs Further 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Legalistic 51.00
Maules Creek 51.00
Legally 51.00
Eucumbene 51.00
Hautto 51.00
Blue Lotus 51.00
Pressday 51.00
Military Blonde 51.00
Snap Dragons 51.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 51.00
But you'd swear the Golden Slipper was a two-horse race. If it was, it would seem almost certain that Military Rose has the measure of Solar Charged, and the odds would be warranted.
But now that the favourite has been backed so short, let's be sure to take a look at the other top chances in the field. Forget Star Witness, its run on Saturday was appalling.
Masquerader, however, had a fantastic run. And there are four or five other top chances likely to race this weekend.
My advice: Don't get caught up in the media hype, rather take a deep breath and look at each chance on its merit and form. Military Rose is a good horse and deserves to be the top chance, but 5 points is ridiculous.
MILITARY ROSE NEW SLIPPER FAVOURITE AS FANCY’S FLOP
Military Rose has stamped herself as a dominant Golden Slipper favourite after easily accounting for former favourite, Solar Charged, in the Riesling Stakes.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Magic Millions winning filly’s odds had been slashed too $3.40 and she looked a bullet proof type who would be very hard to beat in the Slipper.
“She is a clear favourite now with the second pick being Crystal Lily who isn’t even nominated yet,” Sullivan said.
“The fillies certainly look to have an edge this year with fairytale horse Chance Bye on the third line of betting.
“Hinchinbrook is the first of the colts and geldings at $9.00 alongside Todman winner Masquerader who is another not nominated at this stage.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged and Star Witness had been the big drifters in Slipper betting following disappointing runs.
“Solar Charged drifted from $4 to $11 and while you wouldn’t write her off, it is hard to see her turning the tables on Military Rose,” Sullivan said.
“Star Witness went from $6.50 to $17 and given he isn’t nominated, it would have to be unlikely for him to pay up now.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.40
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.00
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Masquerader (nn) 9.00
Solar Charged 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 17.00
Star Witness (nn) 17.00
Psychologist 18.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Skilled 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Obsequious 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Needs Further 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Legalistic 51.00
Maules Creek 51.00
Legally 51.00
Eucumbene 51.00
Hautto 51.00
Blue Lotus 51.00
Pressday 51.00
Military Blonde 51.00
Snap Dragons 51.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 51.00
Friday, March 19, 2010
NRL St George vs Canterbury
News that Ben Hennant is homesick paints a deeper picture of the Bulldogs' state of mind.
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
South Australian election update
The bookies are all over this election stuff. Not much more I can say about it really:
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
Tasmanian election neck and neck
For those following the Tasmanian election, punters have it a tight battle. In such a situation, an upset is usually on the cards - and a likely change of government.
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
AFL television rights
If it's a flat billion, that makes the 3-1 look juicy. But I'm not into corporate bidding. Perhaps the extra little bit on top helps sway the coverage rights?
AFL BROADCAST RIGHTS - HOW MUCH WILL THEY COST?
Sportingbet Australia punters are betting on how much money the 2012 AFL television broadcast rights will cost the winning bidder.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the winning bid would almost certainly exceed the current $780m deal currently in place and was sure the market would be popular with punters.
“It’s a hot topic and we’ve already had plenty of enquiries from punters,” said Sullivan.
“Everybody has their own opinion on how rich these rights will make the AFL and punters can now back their own judgement.”
Sullivan said the option of between 1 billion and one dollars and 1.1 billion dollars had been installed as a slight $2.50 favourite.
“The talk is that 1 billion dollars is the magic mark so we’re betting there’s a partnership out there prepared to offer a little more in order to make sure,” Sullivan said.
“It’s a little like an auction bid designed to knock opponents out.”
The rights costing more than 1.1 billion dollars is second favourite at $2.75 with between 901 Million and 1 Billion dollars at $3.00.
2012 AFL TELEVISION BROADCAST RIGHTS – WINNING BID AMOUNT
Sportingbet Australia Market
1 Billion And One Dollars To 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.50
More Than 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.75
901 Million Dollars To 1 Billion Dollars 3.00
781 Million Dollars To 900 Million Dollars 26.00
780 Million Dollars Or Less 51.00
AFL BROADCAST RIGHTS - HOW MUCH WILL THEY COST?
Sportingbet Australia punters are betting on how much money the 2012 AFL television broadcast rights will cost the winning bidder.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the winning bid would almost certainly exceed the current $780m deal currently in place and was sure the market would be popular with punters.
“It’s a hot topic and we’ve already had plenty of enquiries from punters,” said Sullivan.
“Everybody has their own opinion on how rich these rights will make the AFL and punters can now back their own judgement.”
Sullivan said the option of between 1 billion and one dollars and 1.1 billion dollars had been installed as a slight $2.50 favourite.
“The talk is that 1 billion dollars is the magic mark so we’re betting there’s a partnership out there prepared to offer a little more in order to make sure,” Sullivan said.
“It’s a little like an auction bid designed to knock opponents out.”
The rights costing more than 1.1 billion dollars is second favourite at $2.75 with between 901 Million and 1 Billion dollars at $3.00.
2012 AFL TELEVISION BROADCAST RIGHTS – WINNING BID AMOUNT
Sportingbet Australia Market
1 Billion And One Dollars To 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.50
More Than 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.75
901 Million Dollars To 1 Billion Dollars 3.00
781 Million Dollars To 900 Million Dollars 26.00
780 Million Dollars Or Less 51.00
South Australian election
The power of incumbency can never be under-estimated:
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
Animals to watch this weekend
Here are a few animals to watch this weekend, tips courtesy of TAB in New South Wales:
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 19th March
Harold Park Race 3 - 8.00pm
No. 4 Ben Junior
Saturday 20th March
Rosehill Race 7 - 4.10pm
No.7 - Lady Lynette
Saturday 20th March
Wentworth Park Race 2 - 7.48pm
No.6 - Lochinvar Marlow
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 19th March
Harold Park Race 3 - 8.00pm
No. 4 Ben Junior
Saturday 20th March
Rosehill Race 7 - 4.10pm
No.7 - Lady Lynette
Saturday 20th March
Wentworth Park Race 2 - 7.48pm
No.6 - Lochinvar Marlow
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Kevin Rudd to lose leadership
Kevin Rudd might be stumbling a little more than he expects at the polls, but it's not enough to get carried away with.
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
Who will win the Archibald Prize?
I can't say it's something I know an awful lot about, I'm more of an "I don't know much about art, but I know what I like" sort of person. But it's an interesting market to gaze over nevertheless - the Archibald Prize.
REDDY FAVOURITE FOR SECOND ARCHIE
A portrait of Northern Territory filmmaker Warwick Thornton by former winner Craig Reddy has been installed as the favourite for the 2010 Archibald Prize at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s field looked to be very open with many first time finalists but the portrait of Thornton seemed to attract the eye of many experts who had seen the exhibition.
“We have made Craig Ruddy favourite at $8.00 as the portrait has a lot of presence and he is a past winner with his portrait of David Gulpilil in 2004,” Sullivan said.
“The fact this portrait is quite similar to his 2004 winner could count against him though.”
Sportingbet have the Ian Smith portrait of 1984 Archie winner Keith Looby as second pick at $11 with 2005 and 2006 finalist Jasper Knight third favourite at $12.
“The portraits by Ian Smith and Jasper Knight are the type of paintings that have been successful in the Archibald’s in recent year and look certain contenders,” Sullivan said.
“The Packer’s prize winner, Nafisa’s portrait of Glen A Baker is also well in the market at $16 but it would have to break the trend of the Packer’s prize never having won the Archie.”
2010 Archibald Prize
Sportingbet Australia Market
Craig Ruddy - The Prince of Darkness - Warwick Thornton 8.00
Ian Smith - Keith Looby Alfresco 11.00
Jasper Knight - Bill Wright AM 12.00
Apple Yin - The Previous Life 14.00
Adam Chang - Two Eyes - Closing To Open (Simeon Kronenberg) 16.00
McLean Edwards - Tim Storrier 16.00
Khue Nguyen - Unleashed 16.00
Rodney Pople - Stelarc Triptych 16.00
Nafisa - Glenn in Black & White 16.00
Chi Kordelya - Mr Walker 18.00
Sam Leach - Tim Minchin 18.00
Nick Stathopoulos - The Bequest 18.00
Kevin Connor - Self Portrait 21.00
Peter Clifton Kendall - Underdog 21.00
Pobert Malherbe - The squire - portrait of Luke Sciberras 21.00
Victor Rubin - John Olsen - A Diptych - Part I Seated: Part II in his Bath 21.00
Greg Somers - Self Portrait with the Picture of Dory in Frey 21.00
Nigel Milsom - Adam Cullen (Bird as Prophet) 21.00
Adam Cullen - Gareth at the Country Fair 23.00
Paul Newton - Self portrait #2 – Dark Night of the Soul 23.00
Marc de Jong - Janice Petersen 26.00
Robert Hannaford - Malcolm Fraser 26.00
Paul Ryan - Danie Mellor, True Blue Country 26.00
Peter Smeeth - Peter FitzSimons, author 26.00
James Money - The Lord Mayor of Melbourne 26.00
Kate Beynon - Self Portrait with Guardian Spirits 31.00
Cherry Hood - Michael Zavros 31.00
Alexander McKenzie - Andrew Upton 31.00
Martin Ball - Jacqueline Fahey 34.00
Dean, Shane & Reilly Bowden - I Wake up with Today! 34.00
Christine OHagan - Kate Ceberano 34.00
I Wang - Bishop Elliott and Lady Jacqueline 34.00
Giles Alexander - The alternative ambassadors 41.00
Carla Fletcher - CW Stoneking 41.00
REDDY FAVOURITE FOR SECOND ARCHIE
A portrait of Northern Territory filmmaker Warwick Thornton by former winner Craig Reddy has been installed as the favourite for the 2010 Archibald Prize at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s field looked to be very open with many first time finalists but the portrait of Thornton seemed to attract the eye of many experts who had seen the exhibition.
“We have made Craig Ruddy favourite at $8.00 as the portrait has a lot of presence and he is a past winner with his portrait of David Gulpilil in 2004,” Sullivan said.
“The fact this portrait is quite similar to his 2004 winner could count against him though.”
Sportingbet have the Ian Smith portrait of 1984 Archie winner Keith Looby as second pick at $11 with 2005 and 2006 finalist Jasper Knight third favourite at $12.
“The portraits by Ian Smith and Jasper Knight are the type of paintings that have been successful in the Archibald’s in recent year and look certain contenders,” Sullivan said.
“The Packer’s prize winner, Nafisa’s portrait of Glen A Baker is also well in the market at $16 but it would have to break the trend of the Packer’s prize never having won the Archie.”
2010 Archibald Prize
Sportingbet Australia Market
Craig Ruddy - The Prince of Darkness - Warwick Thornton 8.00
Ian Smith - Keith Looby Alfresco 11.00
Jasper Knight - Bill Wright AM 12.00
Apple Yin - The Previous Life 14.00
Adam Chang - Two Eyes - Closing To Open (Simeon Kronenberg) 16.00
McLean Edwards - Tim Storrier 16.00
Khue Nguyen - Unleashed 16.00
Rodney Pople - Stelarc Triptych 16.00
Nafisa - Glenn in Black & White 16.00
Chi Kordelya - Mr Walker 18.00
Sam Leach - Tim Minchin 18.00
Nick Stathopoulos - The Bequest 18.00
Kevin Connor - Self Portrait 21.00
Peter Clifton Kendall - Underdog 21.00
Pobert Malherbe - The squire - portrait of Luke Sciberras 21.00
Victor Rubin - John Olsen - A Diptych - Part I Seated: Part II in his Bath 21.00
Greg Somers - Self Portrait with the Picture of Dory in Frey 21.00
Nigel Milsom - Adam Cullen (Bird as Prophet) 21.00
Adam Cullen - Gareth at the Country Fair 23.00
Paul Newton - Self portrait #2 – Dark Night of the Soul 23.00
Marc de Jong - Janice Petersen 26.00
Robert Hannaford - Malcolm Fraser 26.00
Paul Ryan - Danie Mellor, True Blue Country 26.00
Peter Smeeth - Peter FitzSimons, author 26.00
James Money - The Lord Mayor of Melbourne 26.00
Kate Beynon - Self Portrait with Guardian Spirits 31.00
Cherry Hood - Michael Zavros 31.00
Alexander McKenzie - Andrew Upton 31.00
Martin Ball - Jacqueline Fahey 34.00
Dean, Shane & Reilly Bowden - I Wake up with Today! 34.00
Christine OHagan - Kate Ceberano 34.00
I Wang - Bishop Elliott and Lady Jacqueline 34.00
Giles Alexander - The alternative ambassadors 41.00
Carla Fletcher - CW Stoneking 41.00
WAFL betting markets
I haven't seen too much information on the WAFL, but for those who are interested, this might prove interesting:
SOUTH FREMANTLE FAVOURITES TO OPEN AND CLOSE 2010 WITH A WIN
Last season Premiers South Fremantle are favourites to open their Premiership defence with a win over East Perth and make it make it back to back Premierships after leading on-line bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au. was first to release betting markets for 2010.
“The Bulldogs are the benchmark and we expect them to come out barking against the Royals” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Matthew Campbell.
In other Round 1 matches, the Swans are slight favourites over the Falcons while the Tigers and the Sharks are expected to take the points.
In Premiership betting, the Swans and the Tigers are just behind the Bulldogs in the betting while perennial Grand Finalists, Subiaco are next at $7.00.
WAFL Round 1
South Fremantle $1.50
East Perth $2.55
West Perth $2.05
Swan Districts $1.75
Peel Thunder $6.00
Claremont $1.12
Perth $2.55
East Fremantle $1.50
WAFL Premiership 2010
South Fremantle $3.50
Swan Districts $4.00
Claremont $4.50
Subiaco $7.00
East Perth $8.50
West Perth $14.00
East Fremantle $16.00
Perth $26.00
Peel Thunder $51.00
SOUTH FREMANTLE FAVOURITES TO OPEN AND CLOSE 2010 WITH A WIN
Last season Premiers South Fremantle are favourites to open their Premiership defence with a win over East Perth and make it make it back to back Premierships after leading on-line bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au. was first to release betting markets for 2010.
“The Bulldogs are the benchmark and we expect them to come out barking against the Royals” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Matthew Campbell.
In other Round 1 matches, the Swans are slight favourites over the Falcons while the Tigers and the Sharks are expected to take the points.
In Premiership betting, the Swans and the Tigers are just behind the Bulldogs in the betting while perennial Grand Finalists, Subiaco are next at $7.00.
WAFL Round 1
South Fremantle $1.50
East Perth $2.55
West Perth $2.05
Swan Districts $1.75
Peel Thunder $6.00
Claremont $1.12
Perth $2.55
East Fremantle $1.50
WAFL Premiership 2010
South Fremantle $3.50
Swan Districts $4.00
Claremont $4.50
Subiaco $7.00
East Perth $8.50
West Perth $14.00
East Fremantle $16.00
Perth $26.00
Peel Thunder $51.00
NRL Manly vs Parramatta specials
Parramatta will be specials this weekend against an under-manned Manly outfit. The Eels are one of the few sides who will be able to match it with the Manly forwards, but their backline spearheaded by Hayne at fullback and Tahu in the centres look likely to be too strong.
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
Tiger Woods favourite for Masters
Bookies have been quick this morning to place Tiger Woods at the top of their lines for the Masters. They would have lost a heap to those willing to back that Woods would return for the event. Now, it seems, they'll be willing to take him on against a strong field.
Woods will no doubt be keen to get back on the golf course, and if he can make the cut, he's as good a chance as any to take out the tournament. Anybody who's played much sport will dismiss any theory that he might be a bit rusty. All the psychology will be firmly in his favour.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
GOLF: TIGER INSTALLED FAVOURITE FOR US MASTERS
Tiger Woods has been instantly installed as favourite for the US Masters after announcing he would return to golf at Augusta in April.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Woods’ dominance over the past decade meant he had to be favourite despite being out of the game for months.
“We are posting Tiger as a $4.50 favourite for the Masters and I am sure punters will be keen to back him,” Sullivan said.
“Woods was a $3.00 favourite for last year’s Masters so the time out has had an effect on his price.
“Tiger has the biggest following of any sportsmen among punters because he has looked after them so many times in the past and I am sure they will back him here.
“There is no doubt he will start the tournament as favourite and it would be a brave man to say he couldn’t win.”
Woods will no doubt be keen to get back on the golf course, and if he can make the cut, he's as good a chance as any to take out the tournament. Anybody who's played much sport will dismiss any theory that he might be a bit rusty. All the psychology will be firmly in his favour.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
GOLF: TIGER INSTALLED FAVOURITE FOR US MASTERS
Tiger Woods has been instantly installed as favourite for the US Masters after announcing he would return to golf at Augusta in April.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Woods’ dominance over the past decade meant he had to be favourite despite being out of the game for months.
“We are posting Tiger as a $4.50 favourite for the Masters and I am sure punters will be keen to back him,” Sullivan said.
“Woods was a $3.00 favourite for last year’s Masters so the time out has had an effect on his price.
“Tiger has the biggest following of any sportsmen among punters because he has looked after them so many times in the past and I am sure they will back him here.
“There is no doubt he will start the tournament as favourite and it would be a brave man to say he couldn’t win.”
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Golden Slipper attracts Star Witness
There has been a lot of publicity and talk about Star Witness in the media lately. The horse cost $150,000 and is now worth in excess of $6 million - a good investment by any standards.
But it is open to debate whether the publicity is leading to the betting plunge, or actual ability of the horse. No doubt it is a quality nag. History will tell whether it's worth following the punters though.
BIG SLIPPER PLUNGE ON STAR WITNESS
Blue Diamond winner Star Witness has been the subject of a betting plunge shortening from $10 to $6.50 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had taken bets to take out over $250,000 on the colt and he was now his worst result for the Slipper.
“We took two bets of $90,000 to $10,000 and we took another bet of $5000 as the price tumbled in as well,” Sullivan said.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since connections changed their mind about coming to Sydney.
“His Blue Diamond win was outstanding and with the pace sure to be on in the Slipper, his pattern of sitting off the speed should suit.”
Sullivan said punters were looking away from the Sydney form at the moment.
“We have been best price Beneteau and Chance Bye who look to have the some of the best Sydney form away from Solar Charged and we can’t find a punter to back them.
“Magic Millions winner Military Rose has been the other runner they have come for in the last week with bets to take out over $50,000 arriving for her.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 6.50
Crystal Lily (nn) 7.50
Military Rose 11.00
Chance Bye 13.00
Elimbari 13.00
Beneteau 13.00
Hinchinbrook 13.00
Zutara 13.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Psychologist 17.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Divorces 26.00
Skilled 31.00
Brightexpectations 31.00
Hiatus 35.00
Maules Creek 35.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Evidentia 35.00
Intertidal 35.00
But it is open to debate whether the publicity is leading to the betting plunge, or actual ability of the horse. No doubt it is a quality nag. History will tell whether it's worth following the punters though.
BIG SLIPPER PLUNGE ON STAR WITNESS
Blue Diamond winner Star Witness has been the subject of a betting plunge shortening from $10 to $6.50 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had taken bets to take out over $250,000 on the colt and he was now his worst result for the Slipper.
“We took two bets of $90,000 to $10,000 and we took another bet of $5000 as the price tumbled in as well,” Sullivan said.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since connections changed their mind about coming to Sydney.
“His Blue Diamond win was outstanding and with the pace sure to be on in the Slipper, his pattern of sitting off the speed should suit.”
Sullivan said punters were looking away from the Sydney form at the moment.
“We have been best price Beneteau and Chance Bye who look to have the some of the best Sydney form away from Solar Charged and we can’t find a punter to back them.
“Magic Millions winner Military Rose has been the other runner they have come for in the last week with bets to take out over $50,000 arriving for her.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 6.50
Crystal Lily (nn) 7.50
Military Rose 11.00
Chance Bye 13.00
Elimbari 13.00
Beneteau 13.00
Hinchinbrook 13.00
Zutara 13.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Psychologist 17.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Divorces 26.00
Skilled 31.00
Brightexpectations 31.00
Hiatus 35.00
Maules Creek 35.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Evidentia 35.00
Intertidal 35.00
Friday, March 12, 2010
Australia Cup horse racing update
We expect a bold showing from Zipping ... just when some might least expect it.
ZARITA BACKED FOR AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia punters are looking past the favourites in the Australian Cup with the best early money coming for Pat Hyland’s stable star Zarita.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said bets on Zarita included one of $2000 each way at $15 while Heart Of Dreams was proving hard to lay.
“We’ve had a little bit of money for Shocking but punters just aren’t interested in the favourite at this stage.”
“But punters definitely think Zarita can repeat her Sunline Stakes win and have been keen to snap up the $15 about her.”
AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 6.00
Zipping 7.00
Shocking 8.00
Sirmione 8.00
Miss Maren 9.00
Barbaricus 10.00
Extra Zero 13.00
Zagreb 15.00
Zarita 15.00
Littorio 16.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Tobique 21.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Growl 51.00
Moatize 61.00
ZARITA BACKED FOR AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia punters are looking past the favourites in the Australian Cup with the best early money coming for Pat Hyland’s stable star Zarita.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said bets on Zarita included one of $2000 each way at $15 while Heart Of Dreams was proving hard to lay.
“We’ve had a little bit of money for Shocking but punters just aren’t interested in the favourite at this stage.”
“But punters definitely think Zarita can repeat her Sunline Stakes win and have been keen to snap up the $15 about her.”
AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 6.00
Zipping 7.00
Shocking 8.00
Sirmione 8.00
Miss Maren 9.00
Barbaricus 10.00
Extra Zero 13.00
Zagreb 15.00
Zarita 15.00
Littorio 16.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Tobique 21.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Growl 51.00
Moatize 61.00
Clarke to be next Australian cricket captain
This is a no-brainer. Of course Michael Clarke will succeed Ricky Ponting, unless he's injured in the meantime. It's as solid an investment as there is at $1.25 - that is, if you can wait long enough for Ricky Ponting to retire in order to collect your dividend.
Credit to Shane Watson for his recent performances with bat and ball, but he's got about as much chance of becoming Australian test captain as my mother.
WHO WILL BE AUSTRALIA’S NEXT TEST CAPTAIN?
Sportingbet Australia has opened a market on who will be succeed Ricky Ponting as Test captain following the controversy over Michael Clarke’s departure from the tour of New Zealand.
Despite the controversy surrounding Clarke, he has been installed $1.25 favourite to take over from Ponting.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there appeared to be a lack of serious contenders to the incumbent vice-captain.
“Michael Clarke would have been $1.01 had we put this market up a few weeks ago and while he still looks the next captain, he isn’t the certainty he once was,” Sullivan said.
“Some have suggested Cameron White but, while he has outstanding leadership credentials, the fact remains he appears to be behind Steve Smith for a spot in the side.
“Simon Katich and Michael Hussey have longevity issues while there’d have to be some doubt about the suitability of both Brad Haddin or Shane Watson for the role when they don’t even captain their state sides.
“Michael Clarke remains favourite essentially by default in the current side and unless Ponting lasts another four or five years, he looks the only choice.”
Sullivan revealed there had been some backing for Shane Watson with his odds shortening from $41.00 to $31.00 in the last twenty-four hours.
NEXT AUSTRALIAN TEST CAPTAIN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Michael Clarke 1.25
Michael Hussey 6.00
Cameron White 7.00
Simon Katich 9.00
Brad Haddin 12.00
Shane Watson 31.00
Marcus North 67.00
George Bailey 101.00
Any Other 21.00
Credit to Shane Watson for his recent performances with bat and ball, but he's got about as much chance of becoming Australian test captain as my mother.
WHO WILL BE AUSTRALIA’S NEXT TEST CAPTAIN?
Sportingbet Australia has opened a market on who will be succeed Ricky Ponting as Test captain following the controversy over Michael Clarke’s departure from the tour of New Zealand.
Despite the controversy surrounding Clarke, he has been installed $1.25 favourite to take over from Ponting.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there appeared to be a lack of serious contenders to the incumbent vice-captain.
“Michael Clarke would have been $1.01 had we put this market up a few weeks ago and while he still looks the next captain, he isn’t the certainty he once was,” Sullivan said.
“Some have suggested Cameron White but, while he has outstanding leadership credentials, the fact remains he appears to be behind Steve Smith for a spot in the side.
“Simon Katich and Michael Hussey have longevity issues while there’d have to be some doubt about the suitability of both Brad Haddin or Shane Watson for the role when they don’t even captain their state sides.
“Michael Clarke remains favourite essentially by default in the current side and unless Ponting lasts another four or five years, he looks the only choice.”
Sullivan revealed there had been some backing for Shane Watson with his odds shortening from $41.00 to $31.00 in the last twenty-four hours.
NEXT AUSTRALIAN TEST CAPTAIN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Michael Clarke 1.25
Michael Hussey 6.00
Cameron White 7.00
Simon Katich 9.00
Brad Haddin 12.00
Shane Watson 31.00
Marcus North 67.00
George Bailey 101.00
Any Other 21.00
So You Think You Can Dance
Public vote tends to be rather fickle, particularly early in the competition. If you can identify some good value among the outsiders, now is the time to get on.
Essentially, you're looking for someone who could make an impression three or four weeks out from the final. Easier said than done, I know!
ROBBIE IS THE ONLY DANCER PUNTERS WANT
After weeks of chopping and changing favourites at Sportingbet Australia the SYTYCD market has finally sorted itself out with Sydney contemporary dancer Robbie a dominant $2.50 favourite.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Robbie was the only dancer punters wanted to be on.
“Robbie started out as a $13.00 chance in the competition with several punters smart enough to take those odds,” said Sullivan.
“His confidence has grown since he’s been partnered with Ivy and punters have backed him into his current price with several on to win $2000.”
Another Sydney dancer in Hip Hopper Jess S is second favourite at $8.00 ahead of Melbourne Ballroom dancer Kieran at $9.00.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 2.50
Jess.S 8.00
Kieran 9.00
Nick 10.00
Heath 10.00
Ivy 11.00
Renee 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Carly 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Philipe 41.00
Essentially, you're looking for someone who could make an impression three or four weeks out from the final. Easier said than done, I know!
ROBBIE IS THE ONLY DANCER PUNTERS WANT
After weeks of chopping and changing favourites at Sportingbet Australia the SYTYCD market has finally sorted itself out with Sydney contemporary dancer Robbie a dominant $2.50 favourite.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Robbie was the only dancer punters wanted to be on.
“Robbie started out as a $13.00 chance in the competition with several punters smart enough to take those odds,” said Sullivan.
“His confidence has grown since he’s been partnered with Ivy and punters have backed him into his current price with several on to win $2000.”
Another Sydney dancer in Hip Hopper Jess S is second favourite at $8.00 ahead of Melbourne Ballroom dancer Kieran at $9.00.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 2.50
Jess.S 8.00
Kieran 9.00
Nick 10.00
Heath 10.00
Ivy 11.00
Renee 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Carly 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Philipe 41.00
Randwick Guineas update
Update from the bookmakers:
GUINEAS BACKING FOR SHOOT OUT AND MONTON
Sportingbet Australia punters are banking on the Hobartville Stakes quinella being repeated in tomorrow’s Randwick Guineas with strong money coming for Shoot Out and Monton.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Shoot Out’s odds had been trimmed from $4.00 to $3.50 with Monton’s quote almost halved from $17 to $9.
“The money says these two will again be fighting out a feature race,” said Sullivan.
“All the early money was for Shoot Out before punters stepped in to Monton in a big way.
“They snapped up the $17, came again at $13 and are still not afraid to take the $9 on offer now.”
RANDWICK GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Shoot Out 3.50
Hanks 8.00
Monton 9.00
Sir Halowell 9.50
Viking Legend 10.00
Kidnapped 11.00
Captain Sonador 12.00
Zabrasive 15.00
Indian Ocean 21.00
Cosmocrat 21.00
More Than Great 26.00
Leicester Square 26.00
Run For Naara 26.00
Delago Bolt 41.00
Gathering 91.00
Saint Encosta 126.00
GUINEAS BACKING FOR SHOOT OUT AND MONTON
Sportingbet Australia punters are banking on the Hobartville Stakes quinella being repeated in tomorrow’s Randwick Guineas with strong money coming for Shoot Out and Monton.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Shoot Out’s odds had been trimmed from $4.00 to $3.50 with Monton’s quote almost halved from $17 to $9.
“The money says these two will again be fighting out a feature race,” said Sullivan.
“All the early money was for Shoot Out before punters stepped in to Monton in a big way.
“They snapped up the $17, came again at $13 and are still not afraid to take the $9 on offer now.”
RANDWICK GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Shoot Out 3.50
Hanks 8.00
Monton 9.00
Sir Halowell 9.50
Viking Legend 10.00
Kidnapped 11.00
Captain Sonador 12.00
Zabrasive 15.00
Indian Ocean 21.00
Cosmocrat 21.00
More Than Great 26.00
Leicester Square 26.00
Run For Naara 26.00
Delago Bolt 41.00
Gathering 91.00
Saint Encosta 126.00
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Big bets on Solar Charged into Typhoon Tracy
I love stories about big bets:
PUNTER ON TO WIN $360,000 ON BOOM FILLY DOUBLE
One Sportingbet Australia punter stands to win himself $360,000 after outlaying $10,000 on a feature double featuring the two boom females of Australian racing .
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter had backed Solar Charged to win the Golden Slipper and Typhoon Tracy to salute in the Doncaster.
“It’s a good bet and I can think of worse horses that you’d want to be on in these races,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged brained some other good fillies in the Kindergarten and Typhoon Tracy has dominated in Melbourne and showed the mile is no problem.
“With Solar Charged now a $4.20 favourite for the Slipper and Typhoon Tracy at $7.00 for the Doncaster this punter has got himself some pretty good value.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged continued to be well backed in Golden Slipper betting with punters keen to get on at the $4.20.
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 7.00
Beneteau 8.00
Chance Bye 10.00
Military Rose 10.00
Zutara 11.00
Elimbari 13.00
Ambers Waltz 14.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 15.00
Psychologist 17.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Hinchinbrook 19.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 21.00
Others 23.00 Plus
PUNTER ON TO WIN $360,000 ON BOOM FILLY DOUBLE
One Sportingbet Australia punter stands to win himself $360,000 after outlaying $10,000 on a feature double featuring the two boom females of Australian racing .
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter had backed Solar Charged to win the Golden Slipper and Typhoon Tracy to salute in the Doncaster.
“It’s a good bet and I can think of worse horses that you’d want to be on in these races,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged brained some other good fillies in the Kindergarten and Typhoon Tracy has dominated in Melbourne and showed the mile is no problem.
“With Solar Charged now a $4.20 favourite for the Slipper and Typhoon Tracy at $7.00 for the Doncaster this punter has got himself some pretty good value.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged continued to be well backed in Golden Slipper betting with punters keen to get on at the $4.20.
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 7.00
Beneteau 8.00
Chance Bye 10.00
Military Rose 10.00
Zutara 11.00
Elimbari 13.00
Ambers Waltz 14.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 15.00
Psychologist 17.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Hinchinbrook 19.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 21.00
Others 23.00 Plus
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
South Australian election result
It is very rare that punters get elections wrong. They're often a good way of cashing up. Bet on the upset if you dare, but we believe that to be unwise.
Here's the latest from the bookies on the South Australian election:
PUNTERS BACK REDMOND TO BEAT RANN
Isobel Redmond and the Liberals are certainly attracting the support of punters with a series of big bets seeing their South Australian state election odds slashed from $5.00 to $2.90 at Sportingbet Australia.
The Liberals were rank outsiders and given little chance by bookmakers a couple of months ago but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the tide had certainly turned and 95% of bets in the past week had been for the Liberals.
“Before the Mike Rann affair story broke, Labor looked a certainty to be returned in South Australia but he now faces a real fight with polls showing Isobel Redmond’s numbers continuing to improve,” Sullivan said.
“Labor still remain $1.40 favourites but we haven’t written a bet on them this week while there has been a number of big bets placed on the opposition.
“The party that firms in the betting market in the last couple of weeks of the campaign have a tremendous record of winning and I would expect to see the Liberals to continue to shorten.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.40
Liberals 2.90
Here's the latest from the bookies on the South Australian election:
PUNTERS BACK REDMOND TO BEAT RANN
Isobel Redmond and the Liberals are certainly attracting the support of punters with a series of big bets seeing their South Australian state election odds slashed from $5.00 to $2.90 at Sportingbet Australia.
The Liberals were rank outsiders and given little chance by bookmakers a couple of months ago but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the tide had certainly turned and 95% of bets in the past week had been for the Liberals.
“Before the Mike Rann affair story broke, Labor looked a certainty to be returned in South Australia but he now faces a real fight with polls showing Isobel Redmond’s numbers continuing to improve,” Sullivan said.
“Labor still remain $1.40 favourites but we haven’t written a bet on them this week while there has been a number of big bets placed on the opposition.
“The party that firms in the betting market in the last couple of weeks of the campaign have a tremendous record of winning and I would expect to see the Liberals to continue to shorten.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.40
Liberals 2.90
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Western Bulldogs not worth $50,000
This one's a brave bet, given that the Doggies looked quite vulnerable on their way to the pre-season final. Yes, winning form is promising, but do they have what it takes to carry through the entire season?
People at times forget St Kilda and Geelong are still in the running, and Collingwood's midfield is every bit as good as the Dogs this year. Barry Hall could make a difference, but he'll have to kick 80-100 goals for the season to make a true impact in my book.
Here's the latest from sportingbet:
PUNTER BACKS BULLDOG FLAG TO WIN $275,000
The Western Bulldogs may have only won one premiership in eighty-five years of AFL/VFL but one Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Barry Hall can help provide them with a second after outlaying $50,000 on them at $6.50.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said it was a massive vote of confidence in the Cinderella team.
“We’ve got used to writing these kind of bets on the likes of Geelong, St Kilda and Hawthorn in the last few seasons but $275,000 to $50,000 is by far the biggest flag bet we’ve ever written on the Doggies,” said Sullivan.
“While they’ve fallen short at the penultimate hurdle each of the last two years punters are certainly in agreement with Jason Akermanis that 2010 is their best chance of winning the big one.
“While most of Australia wouldn’t begrudge a smiling Brad Johnson holding the premiership cup aloft it’s looking like costing Sportingbet Australia plenty.”
The Bulldogs are now into $5.50 with last year’s Grand Finalists Geelong and St Kilda heading betting at $4.00 and $4.75 respectively.
2010 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.75
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Adelaide 9.00
Hawthorn 9.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 26.00
Essendon 41.00
Sydney 51.00
Port Adelaide 67.00
West Coast 67.00
Fremantle 81.00
North Melbourne 101.00
Melbourne 126.00
Richmond 151.00
People at times forget St Kilda and Geelong are still in the running, and Collingwood's midfield is every bit as good as the Dogs this year. Barry Hall could make a difference, but he'll have to kick 80-100 goals for the season to make a true impact in my book.
Here's the latest from sportingbet:
PUNTER BACKS BULLDOG FLAG TO WIN $275,000
The Western Bulldogs may have only won one premiership in eighty-five years of AFL/VFL but one Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Barry Hall can help provide them with a second after outlaying $50,000 on them at $6.50.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said it was a massive vote of confidence in the Cinderella team.
“We’ve got used to writing these kind of bets on the likes of Geelong, St Kilda and Hawthorn in the last few seasons but $275,000 to $50,000 is by far the biggest flag bet we’ve ever written on the Doggies,” said Sullivan.
“While they’ve fallen short at the penultimate hurdle each of the last two years punters are certainly in agreement with Jason Akermanis that 2010 is their best chance of winning the big one.
“While most of Australia wouldn’t begrudge a smiling Brad Johnson holding the premiership cup aloft it’s looking like costing Sportingbet Australia plenty.”
The Bulldogs are now into $5.50 with last year’s Grand Finalists Geelong and St Kilda heading betting at $4.00 and $4.75 respectively.
2010 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.75
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Adelaide 9.00
Hawthorn 9.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 26.00
Essendon 41.00
Sydney 51.00
Port Adelaide 67.00
West Coast 67.00
Fremantle 81.00
North Melbourne 101.00
Melbourne 126.00
Richmond 151.00
Saturday, March 6, 2010
The Hurt Locker to win Oscars
Bookmakers are seeing a plunge for The Hurt Locker leading into the Academy Awards, and with good reason.
As good as Avatar might have been - and it will go down in history alongside the likes of Star Wars - it's not the type of film usually adopted by the Academy suits. They seem to like it real, and that's what punters are banking on.
But while the last round of awards saw The Hurt Locker take ascendency, don't forget the Golden Globes as a key indicator, where Avatar was the winner.
Here at Aussiepunt, we're tipping Avatar to walk away with three gongs.
Meanwhile, here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS DESERT AVATAR
Sportingbet Australia punters have shunned box office smash Avatar ahead of Monday morning’s (Australian Time) Academy Awards ceremony.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the James Cameron blockbuster had drifted from $1.66 to $2.25 over the past two weeks.
“Avatar had all the momentum two weeks ago with us taking several four figure bets at the $1.66,” said Sullivan.
“But with The Hurt Locker picking up the last couple of lead in awards the betting has been turned on its head.”
Sullivan said The Hurt Locker had firmed from $2.25 to $1.75 in the same period with some big bets being written.
“It’s been all The Hurt Locker recently with bets including one of $3000 at $1.75,” Sullivan said.”
“Despite enjoying only moderate success at the box office this film has all the momentum in the race for Best Picture.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering betting on how many Oscars Avatar picks up with five the favourite at $3.00.
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
The Hurt Locker 1.75
Avatar 2.25
Inglorious Basterds 15.00
Up In The Air 41.00
Up 41.00
Precious 67.00
The Blind Side 101.00
An Education 151.00
District 9 151.00
A Serious Man 201.00
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – HOW MANY OSCARS FOR AVATAR?
Sportingbet Australia Market
Five 3.00
Six 4.25
Four 4.50
Three 5.50
Seven 6.50
Eight 9.00
Two 12.00
Nine 26.00
One 51.00
None 101.00
As good as Avatar might have been - and it will go down in history alongside the likes of Star Wars - it's not the type of film usually adopted by the Academy suits. They seem to like it real, and that's what punters are banking on.
But while the last round of awards saw The Hurt Locker take ascendency, don't forget the Golden Globes as a key indicator, where Avatar was the winner.
Here at Aussiepunt, we're tipping Avatar to walk away with three gongs.
Meanwhile, here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS DESERT AVATAR
Sportingbet Australia punters have shunned box office smash Avatar ahead of Monday morning’s (Australian Time) Academy Awards ceremony.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the James Cameron blockbuster had drifted from $1.66 to $2.25 over the past two weeks.
“Avatar had all the momentum two weeks ago with us taking several four figure bets at the $1.66,” said Sullivan.
“But with The Hurt Locker picking up the last couple of lead in awards the betting has been turned on its head.”
Sullivan said The Hurt Locker had firmed from $2.25 to $1.75 in the same period with some big bets being written.
“It’s been all The Hurt Locker recently with bets including one of $3000 at $1.75,” Sullivan said.”
“Despite enjoying only moderate success at the box office this film has all the momentum in the race for Best Picture.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering betting on how many Oscars Avatar picks up with five the favourite at $3.00.
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
The Hurt Locker 1.75
Avatar 2.25
Inglorious Basterds 15.00
Up In The Air 41.00
Up 41.00
Precious 67.00
The Blind Side 101.00
An Education 151.00
District 9 151.00
A Serious Man 201.00
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – HOW MANY OSCARS FOR AVATAR?
Sportingbet Australia Market
Five 3.00
Six 4.25
Four 4.50
Three 5.50
Seven 6.50
Eight 9.00
Two 12.00
Nine 26.00
One 51.00
None 101.00
Friday, March 5, 2010
Golden slipper betting
Sportingbet has taken some big bets on Solar Charged, but we wouldn't be jumping on the bandwagon quite yet.
John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.
SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED
The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.
“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.
“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”
Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.
“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.
KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus
John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.
SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED
The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.
“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.
“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”
Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.
“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.
KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus
So You Think You Can Dance elimination shock
If you can pick the winner of this one, there's some value to be had!
SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE
The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.
“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.
“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”
NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00
SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE
The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.
“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.
“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”
NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00
Newmarket horse racing field
Latest Newmarket odds from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE
The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.
“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.
“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.
“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”
All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.
“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.
“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”
NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00
PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE
The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.
“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.
“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.
“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”
All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.
“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.
“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”
NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Lay against Denman in Australian Guineas
This statement came from IASbet in an effort to attract money for Denman. But if you believe the argument - and there's plenty of substance to it - rather than trying to find another pick to back, the wise thing to do would be to lay Denman with Betfair.
That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.
IASbet.com take on Denman
Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.
That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.
IASbet.com take on Denman
Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
AFL NAB Cup tips
To some, it might be the "Who Cares Cup", but with the pre-season AFL competition at the pointy end, the sides might just be starting to give a damn.
I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.
A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.
And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.
My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.
Here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS
Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.
“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.
“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”
Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.
“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.
“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”
NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50
I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.
A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.
And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.
My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.
Here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS
Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.
“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.
“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”
Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.
“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.
“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”
NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Australia Cup tips
There seems to be plenty of action in early Australia Cup betting.
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:
EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP
Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.
“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.
“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”
Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.
“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.
AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:
EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP
Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.
“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.
“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”
Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.
“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.
AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00
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