Let's just add to this little announcement that both Run for Naara and Hanks are very well priced for this race.
$25,000 BET FOR QUEENSLAND ACE IN GUINEAS SHOOT OUT
In form Queensland gelding, Shoot Out, has been heavily backed to continue his winning form in Saturday’s Rosehill Guineas with one punter investing $25,000 on him at Sportingbet Australia.
The John Wallace trained three year old is solid at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Shoot Out would be hard to beat, there did look to be a few runners who would be helped by the step up to 2000 metres.
“Shoot Out has been very heavily backed all preparation with punters landing a plunge in the Royal Sovereign, launching again when he just missed in the Hobartville and backing up when he won the Randwick Guineas,” Sullivan said.
“This week looks like being no different with the $25,000 leading the charge but there have been plenty of other bets.
“There’s no doubt that Shoot Out looks the pick of the three year olds but he is on trial at this trip.
“Captain Sonador, Run For Naara and Hanks will all benefit from the extra trip and Rock Classic returns home after conquering Set For Fame and Denman in the Australian Guineas.”
ROSEHILL GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rock Classic 3.00
Shoot Out 3.50
Zabrasive 5.50
Captain Sonador 9.00
Run For Naara 12.00
Hanks 14.00
Kidnapped 14.00
Extra Zero 17.00
Gathering 26.00
Cosmocrat 41.00
Saint Encosta 101.00
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Golden Slipper ... if the shoe fits, back it
Golden Slipper odds are up and down at a faster rate than a uni student on viagra.
As soon as there's a whisper, a race run and won, or something on the rumour mill, the fluctuations kick in.
Earlier in the week, I said the shortened odds on Military Rose were premature, given that a number of horses in the field still had some opportunities to prove themselves.
This means there will be plenty of fluctuation yet. One of those horses yet to run is Beneteau which was the subject of the below media release. But there are others, not the least of them Hinchinbrook which is set to run this weekend.
There is likely to be money for Masquerader and Crystal Lily will almost certainly shorten if and when nominated. Watching the market movements is an interesting spectator sport in its own.
BENETEAU BACK IN FAVOUR
Former Golden Slipper favourite Beneteau has been the heavily backed in the past 24 hours shortening from $16 to $11 at Sportingbet Australia.
Beneteau had been a $7.50 joint favourite for the Slipper before disappointing behind Hinchinbrook last start but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters still thought he could win the big one.
“One punter backed him to win $40,000 while we also took bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 this week, Sullivan said.
“He was a little disappointing last start when a raging favourite but he covered more ground than the early explorers and punters have forgiven that run.”
“He has been clearly been the best backed horse this week with the exception of Military Rose who is now a raging Slipper favourite.”
Military Rose is the $3.00 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Crystal Lily at $5.75 and Chance Bye at $8.50.
“Military Rose has been the one the punters have wanted all week with a bet of $100,000 leading the charge,” Sullivan said.
“Hinchinbrook is the other horse interesting punters and he could well be the big shortener if he impresses in the Pago Pago.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Beneteau 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Skilled 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
As soon as there's a whisper, a race run and won, or something on the rumour mill, the fluctuations kick in.
Earlier in the week, I said the shortened odds on Military Rose were premature, given that a number of horses in the field still had some opportunities to prove themselves.
This means there will be plenty of fluctuation yet. One of those horses yet to run is Beneteau which was the subject of the below media release. But there are others, not the least of them Hinchinbrook which is set to run this weekend.
There is likely to be money for Masquerader and Crystal Lily will almost certainly shorten if and when nominated. Watching the market movements is an interesting spectator sport in its own.
BENETEAU BACK IN FAVOUR
Former Golden Slipper favourite Beneteau has been the heavily backed in the past 24 hours shortening from $16 to $11 at Sportingbet Australia.
Beneteau had been a $7.50 joint favourite for the Slipper before disappointing behind Hinchinbrook last start but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters still thought he could win the big one.
“One punter backed him to win $40,000 while we also took bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 this week, Sullivan said.
“He was a little disappointing last start when a raging favourite but he covered more ground than the early explorers and punters have forgiven that run.”
“He has been clearly been the best backed horse this week with the exception of Military Rose who is now a raging Slipper favourite.”
Military Rose is the $3.00 favourite at Sportingbet Australia ahead of Crystal Lily at $5.75 and Chance Bye at $8.50.
“Military Rose has been the one the punters have wanted all week with a bet of $100,000 leading the charge,” Sullivan said.
“Hinchinbrook is the other horse interesting punters and he could well be the big shortener if he impresses in the Pago Pago.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Beneteau 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Skilled 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix preview
Bahrain proved nothing which is why the odds are as open as they are for the Australian Grand Prix.
The fastest times are being posted by Lewis Hamilton's Red Bull car, both in practice sessions and on the rare occasions cars experienced a dry Bahrain track.
If that's the case, he'll be out to prove he's the one to beat for the championship, taking note that the past four World Champions have been winners of the Melbourne event. At $7.50, it's tasty odds on what could be considered a realistic 3-1 chance.
Webber's odds can only be explained by the media hype in Australia which has surrounded his two victories. Notably the man who was not overly liked by the media has all of a sudden been labelled a national hero by 60 Minutes.
Isn't it odd how the worm turns?
Anyway, here's the latest frame from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS KEEN ON WEBBER'S CHANCES
Aussie punters are getting on board Mark Webber’s attempt to win his maiden Australian GP with the Red Bull driver backed in from $13 to $8 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was the only one punters wanted in the lead up to the race.
“There’s a sprinkle of money for Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher but we’re writing six bets on Webber for every bet on any opponent at this stage,” said Sullivan.
“He’s looked nice and relaxed since he’s been in Australia and the punters think he’s a huge chance on Sunday.”
Fernando Alonso heads betting at $3, ahead of Vettel at $3.50 and Felipe Massa at $6.50.
Seven time World Champion Michael Schumacher is at $21 to mark his return to Australia with a win.
AUSTRALIAN F1 GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Fernando Alonso [FER] 3.00
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.50
Felipe Massa [FER] 6.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 7.50
Mark Webber [RED] 8.00
Jenson Button [McL] 17.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 21.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 21.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 67.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 81.00
Rubens Barrichello [WIL] 81.00
Others 101.00 Plus
The fastest times are being posted by Lewis Hamilton's Red Bull car, both in practice sessions and on the rare occasions cars experienced a dry Bahrain track.
If that's the case, he'll be out to prove he's the one to beat for the championship, taking note that the past four World Champions have been winners of the Melbourne event. At $7.50, it's tasty odds on what could be considered a realistic 3-1 chance.
Webber's odds can only be explained by the media hype in Australia which has surrounded his two victories. Notably the man who was not overly liked by the media has all of a sudden been labelled a national hero by 60 Minutes.
Isn't it odd how the worm turns?
Anyway, here's the latest frame from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS KEEN ON WEBBER'S CHANCES
Aussie punters are getting on board Mark Webber’s attempt to win his maiden Australian GP with the Red Bull driver backed in from $13 to $8 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was the only one punters wanted in the lead up to the race.
“There’s a sprinkle of money for Sebastian Vettel and Michael Schumacher but we’re writing six bets on Webber for every bet on any opponent at this stage,” said Sullivan.
“He’s looked nice and relaxed since he’s been in Australia and the punters think he’s a huge chance on Sunday.”
Fernando Alonso heads betting at $3, ahead of Vettel at $3.50 and Felipe Massa at $6.50.
Seven time World Champion Michael Schumacher is at $21 to mark his return to Australia with a win.
AUSTRALIAN F1 GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Fernando Alonso [FER] 3.00
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.50
Felipe Massa [FER] 6.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 7.50
Mark Webber [RED] 8.00
Jenson Button [McL] 17.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 21.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 21.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 67.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 81.00
Rubens Barrichello [WIL] 81.00
Others 101.00 Plus
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
AFL season preview
I enjoy the rugby league, rugby union, soccer (football), winter sports and pretty much any other sport which makes its way onto my television screen.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
Socceroos new coach
The bookmakers have posted odds on who will become the Socceroos next coach.
But it's a bunch of names posted on what would normally be regarded as the second line of betting.
Unless you have some inside information (if so, we'd like you to share), this is a pie in the sky speculator, and I think we can find some better $5-8 chances with greater prospects of a positive outcome.
In short, there's little value here as it seems the bookies are feeling out the market to see whether there's any backroom discussion. If so, it'll be quickly leaked into the betting arena.
WHO WILL COACH THE SOCCEROOS?
Sportingbet Australia has installed Feyenoord Technical Director Leo Beenhakker as a $4.80 favourite to lead the Socceroos to the 2014 World Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Beenhakker’s experience made him a logical favourite.
“If Beenhakker is interested it will take a pretty good CV to beat him for the job,” said Sullivan.
“With stints in charge of clubs like Ajax and Real Madrid and the Dutch, Polish, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago national sides he certainly has the kind of experience needed.”
Others in the market include Frenchman Philippe Troussier, current technical director Hans Berger and perennial Aussie favourite Guus Hiddink .
“You’d think Hiddink would only be a rough chance to want the job back,” said Sullivan.
“But if he does put his hand up the job would no doubt be his.”
NEXT SOCCEROOS COACH
Sportingbet Australia Market
Leo Beenhakker 4.80
Philippe Troussier 5.00
Guus Hiddink 5.50
Johan Neeskens 6.00
Jan Versleijen 6.00
Hans Berger 6.00
Frank Rijkaard 8.00
Vitislav Lavicka 17.00
Steve McClaren 21.00
Ricky Herbert 26.00
Martin Jol 26.00
Aurelio Vidmar 51.00
But it's a bunch of names posted on what would normally be regarded as the second line of betting.
Unless you have some inside information (if so, we'd like you to share), this is a pie in the sky speculator, and I think we can find some better $5-8 chances with greater prospects of a positive outcome.
In short, there's little value here as it seems the bookies are feeling out the market to see whether there's any backroom discussion. If so, it'll be quickly leaked into the betting arena.
WHO WILL COACH THE SOCCEROOS?
Sportingbet Australia has installed Feyenoord Technical Director Leo Beenhakker as a $4.80 favourite to lead the Socceroos to the 2014 World Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Beenhakker’s experience made him a logical favourite.
“If Beenhakker is interested it will take a pretty good CV to beat him for the job,” said Sullivan.
“With stints in charge of clubs like Ajax and Real Madrid and the Dutch, Polish, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago national sides he certainly has the kind of experience needed.”
Others in the market include Frenchman Philippe Troussier, current technical director Hans Berger and perennial Aussie favourite Guus Hiddink .
“You’d think Hiddink would only be a rough chance to want the job back,” said Sullivan.
“But if he does put his hand up the job would no doubt be his.”
NEXT SOCCEROOS COACH
Sportingbet Australia Market
Leo Beenhakker 4.80
Philippe Troussier 5.00
Guus Hiddink 5.50
Johan Neeskens 6.00
Jan Versleijen 6.00
Hans Berger 6.00
Frank Rijkaard 8.00
Vitislav Lavicka 17.00
Steve McClaren 21.00
Ricky Herbert 26.00
Martin Jol 26.00
Aurelio Vidmar 51.00
Monday, March 22, 2010
Golden Slipper update
In an earlier post today, I expressed my views on the Golden Slipper field, saying any bet on the favourite would have to be carefully thought out, rather than driven by media hype, or the fact Military Rose was able to beat home Solar Charged at the weekend.
Well, if it's any indication, we'd hope that a $100,000 bet was carefully thought out:
GOLDEN SLIPPER: $100,000 BET ON MILITARY ROSE
Military Rose is set to start as one of the shortest priced Golden Slipper favourites in years after some enormous bets were placed on the Queensland filly at Sportingbet Australia following her win in the Reisling.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters have crashed her price into $3.00 with a string of bets on Saturday night and Sunday.
“We went back up at $3.40 on Saturday afternoon and immediately got claimed with a bet of $100,000,” Sullivan said.
“Since the Reisling, she has been the only horse punters have been interested in backing which isn’t surprising given how she dealt with a quality field which included former Slipper favourite, Solar Charged.”
“The way she won the Magic Millions her win on Saturday will ensure she starts a short priced favourite unless we see something special from Hinchinbrook or something else in the Pago Pago this weekend.”
Crystal Lily who isn’t nominated for the Slipper is on the second line of betting at $5.75 with Sportingbet ahead of fairytale filly Chance Bye at $8.50, with Hinchinbrook the first of the colts at $9.00.
“The three fillies are certainly the ones to beat at the moment but Hinchinbrook could be the big shortener if he wins well on Saturday,” Sullivan said.
2010 Golden Slipper (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
Well, if it's any indication, we'd hope that a $100,000 bet was carefully thought out:
GOLDEN SLIPPER: $100,000 BET ON MILITARY ROSE
Military Rose is set to start as one of the shortest priced Golden Slipper favourites in years after some enormous bets were placed on the Queensland filly at Sportingbet Australia following her win in the Reisling.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters have crashed her price into $3.00 with a string of bets on Saturday night and Sunday.
“We went back up at $3.40 on Saturday afternoon and immediately got claimed with a bet of $100,000,” Sullivan said.
“Since the Reisling, she has been the only horse punters have been interested in backing which isn’t surprising given how she dealt with a quality field which included former Slipper favourite, Solar Charged.”
“The way she won the Magic Millions her win on Saturday will ensure she starts a short priced favourite unless we see something special from Hinchinbrook or something else in the Pago Pago this weekend.”
Crystal Lily who isn’t nominated for the Slipper is on the second line of betting at $5.75 with Sportingbet ahead of fairytale filly Chance Bye at $8.50, with Hinchinbrook the first of the colts at $9.00.
“The three fillies are certainly the ones to beat at the moment but Hinchinbrook could be the big shortener if he wins well on Saturday,” Sullivan said.
2010 Golden Slipper (All in Betting)
Sportingbet Australia market
Military Rose 3.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.75
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Solar Charged 10.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Masquerader (nn) 15.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 19.00
Psychologist 21.00
Obsequious 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Star Witness (nn) (doubtful) 23.00
AFL Year of the Full Forward
The Coleman this year is likely to see a return of the spearhead full forward, particularly with Barry Hall clearly in the picture for the Western Bulldogs.
It might be a bit extreme to think that a first-year recruit will win the medal and upstage some rivals. Podsiadly will certainly be fed some good ball, but Geelong has a long list of goalkickers in its side.
Lance Franklin didn't shine last year, but expect him to be a more likely target for the Hawks this year.
Advice: Wait for three or four rounds into the competition before making a call. The favourites won't firm much, but you'll have a far better idea about who might come from behind to win it.
If Franklin or Fevola kick 10 in their first game, their odds will plummet, but it's far better getting an educated idea on shorter odds than to take a wild punt in the futures market.
PODSIADLY PRICE SLASHED IN COLEMAN MARKET
Following news that Geelong has promoted James Podsiadly to its senior list, online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has trimmed the 28-year-old’s price to win the Coleman Medal in his debut season from $81 to $51.
This follows earlier ‘speccing’ on Podsiadly where one punter had $1000 on the Cat forward to win the Coleman at the astronomical odds of $501 for a potential $500,000 pay day.
“We stand to lose half a million on Podsiadly in one bet, let alone tens of thousands more from punters who backed him at $81 before the announcement of his promotion,” said Lane.
While Podsiadly is the bookie’s worst result, Lane said the biggest plunge had been saved for Western Bulldogs spearhead Barry Hall.
“Barry Hall has been the big firmer in Coleman Medal betting. You could get $17 about him in mid-February, now he’s the third favourite in betting at $6.50,” said Lane.
“Since the NAB Cup Grand Final, four out of every five bets we’ve taken on the Coleman have been on Big Bad Barry.”
Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin is favourite to take home the Coleman at $4, while Lions new recruit Brendan Fevola is the next best at $4.50.
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 COLEMAN MEDAL
$4 Lance Franklin
$4.50 Brendan Fevola
$6.50 Barry Hall (in from $17)
$12 Daniel Bradshaw
$14 Jonathan Brown
$15 Matthew Pavlich
$15 Nick Riewoldt
$17 Jarryd Roughead
$21 Kurt Tippett
$26 Marc Lecras
$34 John Anthony
$41 Jason Porplyzia
$41 Justin Koschitzke
$51 James Podsiadly (in from $501)
It might be a bit extreme to think that a first-year recruit will win the medal and upstage some rivals. Podsiadly will certainly be fed some good ball, but Geelong has a long list of goalkickers in its side.
Lance Franklin didn't shine last year, but expect him to be a more likely target for the Hawks this year.
Advice: Wait for three or four rounds into the competition before making a call. The favourites won't firm much, but you'll have a far better idea about who might come from behind to win it.
If Franklin or Fevola kick 10 in their first game, their odds will plummet, but it's far better getting an educated idea on shorter odds than to take a wild punt in the futures market.
PODSIADLY PRICE SLASHED IN COLEMAN MARKET
Following news that Geelong has promoted James Podsiadly to its senior list, online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has trimmed the 28-year-old’s price to win the Coleman Medal in his debut season from $81 to $51.
This follows earlier ‘speccing’ on Podsiadly where one punter had $1000 on the Cat forward to win the Coleman at the astronomical odds of $501 for a potential $500,000 pay day.
“We stand to lose half a million on Podsiadly in one bet, let alone tens of thousands more from punters who backed him at $81 before the announcement of his promotion,” said Lane.
While Podsiadly is the bookie’s worst result, Lane said the biggest plunge had been saved for Western Bulldogs spearhead Barry Hall.
“Barry Hall has been the big firmer in Coleman Medal betting. You could get $17 about him in mid-February, now he’s the third favourite in betting at $6.50,” said Lane.
“Since the NAB Cup Grand Final, four out of every five bets we’ve taken on the Coleman have been on Big Bad Barry.”
Hawthorn’s Lance Franklin is favourite to take home the Coleman at $4, while Lions new recruit Brendan Fevola is the next best at $4.50.
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 COLEMAN MEDAL
$4 Lance Franklin
$4.50 Brendan Fevola
$6.50 Barry Hall (in from $17)
$12 Daniel Bradshaw
$14 Jonathan Brown
$15 Matthew Pavlich
$15 Nick Riewoldt
$17 Jarryd Roughead
$21 Kurt Tippett
$26 Marc Lecras
$34 John Anthony
$41 Jason Porplyzia
$41 Justin Koschitzke
$51 James Podsiadly (in from $501)
NRL comebacks set the trend
Rugby League is fast becoming like horse racing in that it’s more common for the front runner to be overtaken at the line.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
Military Rose run fantastic
Military Rose has shot in more than 5 points with most bookies, and it was on the back of a very impressive run on Saturday.
But you'd swear the Golden Slipper was a two-horse race. If it was, it would seem almost certain that Military Rose has the measure of Solar Charged, and the odds would be warranted.
But now that the favourite has been backed so short, let's be sure to take a look at the other top chances in the field. Forget Star Witness, its run on Saturday was appalling.
Masquerader, however, had a fantastic run. And there are four or five other top chances likely to race this weekend.
My advice: Don't get caught up in the media hype, rather take a deep breath and look at each chance on its merit and form. Military Rose is a good horse and deserves to be the top chance, but 5 points is ridiculous.
MILITARY ROSE NEW SLIPPER FAVOURITE AS FANCY’S FLOP
Military Rose has stamped herself as a dominant Golden Slipper favourite after easily accounting for former favourite, Solar Charged, in the Riesling Stakes.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Magic Millions winning filly’s odds had been slashed too $3.40 and she looked a bullet proof type who would be very hard to beat in the Slipper.
“She is a clear favourite now with the second pick being Crystal Lily who isn’t even nominated yet,” Sullivan said.
“The fillies certainly look to have an edge this year with fairytale horse Chance Bye on the third line of betting.
“Hinchinbrook is the first of the colts and geldings at $9.00 alongside Todman winner Masquerader who is another not nominated at this stage.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged and Star Witness had been the big drifters in Slipper betting following disappointing runs.
“Solar Charged drifted from $4 to $11 and while you wouldn’t write her off, it is hard to see her turning the tables on Military Rose,” Sullivan said.
“Star Witness went from $6.50 to $17 and given he isn’t nominated, it would have to be unlikely for him to pay up now.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.40
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.00
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Masquerader (nn) 9.00
Solar Charged 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 17.00
Star Witness (nn) 17.00
Psychologist 18.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Skilled 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Obsequious 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Needs Further 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Legalistic 51.00
Maules Creek 51.00
Legally 51.00
Eucumbene 51.00
Hautto 51.00
Blue Lotus 51.00
Pressday 51.00
Military Blonde 51.00
Snap Dragons 51.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 51.00
But you'd swear the Golden Slipper was a two-horse race. If it was, it would seem almost certain that Military Rose has the measure of Solar Charged, and the odds would be warranted.
But now that the favourite has been backed so short, let's be sure to take a look at the other top chances in the field. Forget Star Witness, its run on Saturday was appalling.
Masquerader, however, had a fantastic run. And there are four or five other top chances likely to race this weekend.
My advice: Don't get caught up in the media hype, rather take a deep breath and look at each chance on its merit and form. Military Rose is a good horse and deserves to be the top chance, but 5 points is ridiculous.
MILITARY ROSE NEW SLIPPER FAVOURITE AS FANCY’S FLOP
Military Rose has stamped herself as a dominant Golden Slipper favourite after easily accounting for former favourite, Solar Charged, in the Riesling Stakes.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Magic Millions winning filly’s odds had been slashed too $3.40 and she looked a bullet proof type who would be very hard to beat in the Slipper.
“She is a clear favourite now with the second pick being Crystal Lily who isn’t even nominated yet,” Sullivan said.
“The fillies certainly look to have an edge this year with fairytale horse Chance Bye on the third line of betting.
“Hinchinbrook is the first of the colts and geldings at $9.00 alongside Todman winner Masquerader who is another not nominated at this stage.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged and Star Witness had been the big drifters in Slipper betting following disappointing runs.
“Solar Charged drifted from $4 to $11 and while you wouldn’t write her off, it is hard to see her turning the tables on Military Rose,” Sullivan said.
“Star Witness went from $6.50 to $17 and given he isn’t nominated, it would have to be unlikely for him to pay up now.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.40
Crystal Lily (nn) 5.00
Chance Bye 8.50
Hinchinbrook 9.00
Masquerader (nn) 9.00
Solar Charged 11.00
Decision Time (nn) 14.00
Beneteau 16.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Zutara 17.00
Star Witness (nn) 17.00
Psychologist 18.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Georgette Silk 23.00
Elimbari 31.00
Skilled 31.00
Divorces 31.00
Obsequious 31.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Needs Further 41.00
Evidentia 41.00
My Amelia 41.00
Dove Lake 41.00
Brightexpectations 41.00
Skorost 41.00
More Strawberries 41.00
Legalistic 51.00
Maules Creek 51.00
Legally 51.00
Eucumbene 51.00
Hautto 51.00
Blue Lotus 51.00
Pressday 51.00
Military Blonde 51.00
Snap Dragons 51.00
Toorak Toff (nn) 51.00
Friday, March 19, 2010
NRL St George vs Canterbury
News that Ben Hennant is homesick paints a deeper picture of the Bulldogs' state of mind.
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
South Australian election update
The bookies are all over this election stuff. Not much more I can say about it really:
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
MORE LATE MONEY FOR LABOR IN SA
The late money continues for Labor in South Australia with a bet of $10,000 at $1.42 struck with Sportingbet Australia.
Several late polls had the Liberals sneaking in front but punters are confident Mike Rann can hold on.
“All the money in the last 24 hours has been for the Labor to win another term and there price has shortened from $1.42 to $1.35 while the Liberals have blown out to $3.00,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.
“The party that firms in the last 24 hours before an election has a tremendous record of winning and that is clearly Labor here.
“The Liberals have done a tremendous job to close the gap but punters clearly think they will just fall short.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.35
Liberal 3.00
Tasmanian election neck and neck
For those following the Tasmanian election, punters have it a tight battle. In such a situation, an upset is usually on the cards - and a likely change of government.
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
MAJORITY THINK IT'S TIGHT IN TASSIE
Punters are unclear who will win Government in Tasmania but they do seem certain neither party will win with a clear majority.
Sportingbet Australia have posted a market which has neither party winning a majority at $1.22 and a clear verdict as a $4.00 outsider.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been good money for Labor and the Liberals in the past 24 hours but the winner was likely to be decided by who could pull off a deal with the Greens to form Government.
“The race is very tight at the moment but the one certainty does appear to be that it will be a minority government,” Sullivan said.
“We currently have market at $1.90 each side but Liberals have been backed from $2.10 to $1.90 in the past 24 hours so they do have the momentum in the lead up to the poll.”
“The market trend is certainly suggesting the Liberals will form a minority Government.”
Sullivan said this was the closest election in betting terms he could remember.
“The money has been split almost exactly 50/50 which is extremely unusual in election betting,” Sullivan said.
“Normally punters have landed clearly on one side or the other by the day before the election but they are truly divided here.”
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.90
Liberal 1.90
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION – MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Sportingbet Australia Market
No, Majority Government Not Elected 1.22
Yes, Majority Government Elected 4.00
AFL television rights
If it's a flat billion, that makes the 3-1 look juicy. But I'm not into corporate bidding. Perhaps the extra little bit on top helps sway the coverage rights?
AFL BROADCAST RIGHTS - HOW MUCH WILL THEY COST?
Sportingbet Australia punters are betting on how much money the 2012 AFL television broadcast rights will cost the winning bidder.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the winning bid would almost certainly exceed the current $780m deal currently in place and was sure the market would be popular with punters.
“It’s a hot topic and we’ve already had plenty of enquiries from punters,” said Sullivan.
“Everybody has their own opinion on how rich these rights will make the AFL and punters can now back their own judgement.”
Sullivan said the option of between 1 billion and one dollars and 1.1 billion dollars had been installed as a slight $2.50 favourite.
“The talk is that 1 billion dollars is the magic mark so we’re betting there’s a partnership out there prepared to offer a little more in order to make sure,” Sullivan said.
“It’s a little like an auction bid designed to knock opponents out.”
The rights costing more than 1.1 billion dollars is second favourite at $2.75 with between 901 Million and 1 Billion dollars at $3.00.
2012 AFL TELEVISION BROADCAST RIGHTS – WINNING BID AMOUNT
Sportingbet Australia Market
1 Billion And One Dollars To 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.50
More Than 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.75
901 Million Dollars To 1 Billion Dollars 3.00
781 Million Dollars To 900 Million Dollars 26.00
780 Million Dollars Or Less 51.00
AFL BROADCAST RIGHTS - HOW MUCH WILL THEY COST?
Sportingbet Australia punters are betting on how much money the 2012 AFL television broadcast rights will cost the winning bidder.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the winning bid would almost certainly exceed the current $780m deal currently in place and was sure the market would be popular with punters.
“It’s a hot topic and we’ve already had plenty of enquiries from punters,” said Sullivan.
“Everybody has their own opinion on how rich these rights will make the AFL and punters can now back their own judgement.”
Sullivan said the option of between 1 billion and one dollars and 1.1 billion dollars had been installed as a slight $2.50 favourite.
“The talk is that 1 billion dollars is the magic mark so we’re betting there’s a partnership out there prepared to offer a little more in order to make sure,” Sullivan said.
“It’s a little like an auction bid designed to knock opponents out.”
The rights costing more than 1.1 billion dollars is second favourite at $2.75 with between 901 Million and 1 Billion dollars at $3.00.
2012 AFL TELEVISION BROADCAST RIGHTS – WINNING BID AMOUNT
Sportingbet Australia Market
1 Billion And One Dollars To 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.50
More Than 1.1 Billion Dollars 2.75
901 Million Dollars To 1 Billion Dollars 3.00
781 Million Dollars To 900 Million Dollars 26.00
780 Million Dollars Or Less 51.00
South Australian election
The power of incumbency can never be under-estimated:
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
LATE MONEY SAYS RANN TO HOLD POWER
Punters seem convinced Mike Rann and Labor will be returned in South Australia despite the Liberals moving ahead in some polls.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the big money in the 48 hours leading up to election day had all been for the Government who remain $1.42 favourites.
“We had seen a huge swell of support for the Liberals in the last couple of weeks but that has dried up completely as election day nears,” Sullivan said.
“We have taken a couple of bets of $3000 and more of $2000 and $1000 on Labor and this late money suggests they will hold on despite the Liberals closing the gap.
“It looks like Labor still hold enough of a break in the key marginal seats to hold on.”
Isobel Redmond is currently a $2.75 chance at Sportingbet to become South Australia’s first female Premier.
“Isobel Redmond has done an enormous job to put the Liberals back in the race after we bet as much as $5.00 about a Liberal victory last year,” Sullivan said.
“However, punters think she will just fall short of causing a huge upset in unseating Mike Rann who had an approval rating of 80% just last year.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.42
Liberal 2.75
Animals to watch this weekend
Here are a few animals to watch this weekend, tips courtesy of TAB in New South Wales:
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 19th March
Harold Park Race 3 - 8.00pm
No. 4 Ben Junior
Saturday 20th March
Rosehill Race 7 - 4.10pm
No.7 - Lady Lynette
Saturday 20th March
Wentworth Park Race 2 - 7.48pm
No.6 - Lochinvar Marlow
Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 19th March
Harold Park Race 3 - 8.00pm
No. 4 Ben Junior
Saturday 20th March
Rosehill Race 7 - 4.10pm
No.7 - Lady Lynette
Saturday 20th March
Wentworth Park Race 2 - 7.48pm
No.6 - Lochinvar Marlow
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Kevin Rudd to lose leadership
Kevin Rudd might be stumbling a little more than he expects at the polls, but it's not enough to get carried away with.
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
The $1.25 on he and Gillard again being a partnership at the next election are crazy ... this statement might well come back to bite me, but it's better than bank interest, as they say!
GILLARD TO LEAD LABOR AT NEXT ELECTION?
A day of poll-driven leadership speculation has caused seismic shifts in the Sportingbet Australia betting markets, where punters are getting behind a leadership combination of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan at $4.50.
With the market only days old, the steady reversal in Kevin Rudd’s fortunes at the polls has spurred a show of confidence in Julia Gillard as a possible federal ALP leader and prime minister, at the next election.
While the Gillard/Swan leadership combination is the preferred second option, the combination of Gillard and high-powered finance minister Lindsay Tanner is also well in the market at $5.50 with Sportingbet Australia market.
Today’s betting has also raised the notion of a Gillard-less leadership team, perhaps following an unsuccessful challenge, with a Rudd/Swan team as an outside bet at $9.00.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters seemed to be eyeing the polls very carefully and were dropping away from the Rudd/Gillard leadership team in their droves.
“Our markets seem to be showing that punters are expecting there to be blood spilled in the PM’s office some time before the next election,” said Mr Sullivan.
“With Gillard the clear front runner for next leader, all the action is around whether it will be before or after the next election and who will be deputy.”
“Swan is the obvious choice, but has not shone in the treasury job in the same way that Tanner has in finance.”
“I would have thought Tanner would be a highly unlikely choice given he comes from the same background as Gillard, a Melbourne left-winger, but punters have a good record in these markets.”
LABOR LEADERSHIP TEAM AT NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rudd/Gillard $1.25
Gillard/Swan $4.50
Gillard/Tanner $5.50
Rudd/Swan $9.00
Any other $17.00
Who will win the Archibald Prize?
I can't say it's something I know an awful lot about, I'm more of an "I don't know much about art, but I know what I like" sort of person. But it's an interesting market to gaze over nevertheless - the Archibald Prize.
REDDY FAVOURITE FOR SECOND ARCHIE
A portrait of Northern Territory filmmaker Warwick Thornton by former winner Craig Reddy has been installed as the favourite for the 2010 Archibald Prize at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s field looked to be very open with many first time finalists but the portrait of Thornton seemed to attract the eye of many experts who had seen the exhibition.
“We have made Craig Ruddy favourite at $8.00 as the portrait has a lot of presence and he is a past winner with his portrait of David Gulpilil in 2004,” Sullivan said.
“The fact this portrait is quite similar to his 2004 winner could count against him though.”
Sportingbet have the Ian Smith portrait of 1984 Archie winner Keith Looby as second pick at $11 with 2005 and 2006 finalist Jasper Knight third favourite at $12.
“The portraits by Ian Smith and Jasper Knight are the type of paintings that have been successful in the Archibald’s in recent year and look certain contenders,” Sullivan said.
“The Packer’s prize winner, Nafisa’s portrait of Glen A Baker is also well in the market at $16 but it would have to break the trend of the Packer’s prize never having won the Archie.”
2010 Archibald Prize
Sportingbet Australia Market
Craig Ruddy - The Prince of Darkness - Warwick Thornton 8.00
Ian Smith - Keith Looby Alfresco 11.00
Jasper Knight - Bill Wright AM 12.00
Apple Yin - The Previous Life 14.00
Adam Chang - Two Eyes - Closing To Open (Simeon Kronenberg) 16.00
McLean Edwards - Tim Storrier 16.00
Khue Nguyen - Unleashed 16.00
Rodney Pople - Stelarc Triptych 16.00
Nafisa - Glenn in Black & White 16.00
Chi Kordelya - Mr Walker 18.00
Sam Leach - Tim Minchin 18.00
Nick Stathopoulos - The Bequest 18.00
Kevin Connor - Self Portrait 21.00
Peter Clifton Kendall - Underdog 21.00
Pobert Malherbe - The squire - portrait of Luke Sciberras 21.00
Victor Rubin - John Olsen - A Diptych - Part I Seated: Part II in his Bath 21.00
Greg Somers - Self Portrait with the Picture of Dory in Frey 21.00
Nigel Milsom - Adam Cullen (Bird as Prophet) 21.00
Adam Cullen - Gareth at the Country Fair 23.00
Paul Newton - Self portrait #2 – Dark Night of the Soul 23.00
Marc de Jong - Janice Petersen 26.00
Robert Hannaford - Malcolm Fraser 26.00
Paul Ryan - Danie Mellor, True Blue Country 26.00
Peter Smeeth - Peter FitzSimons, author 26.00
James Money - The Lord Mayor of Melbourne 26.00
Kate Beynon - Self Portrait with Guardian Spirits 31.00
Cherry Hood - Michael Zavros 31.00
Alexander McKenzie - Andrew Upton 31.00
Martin Ball - Jacqueline Fahey 34.00
Dean, Shane & Reilly Bowden - I Wake up with Today! 34.00
Christine OHagan - Kate Ceberano 34.00
I Wang - Bishop Elliott and Lady Jacqueline 34.00
Giles Alexander - The alternative ambassadors 41.00
Carla Fletcher - CW Stoneking 41.00
REDDY FAVOURITE FOR SECOND ARCHIE
A portrait of Northern Territory filmmaker Warwick Thornton by former winner Craig Reddy has been installed as the favourite for the 2010 Archibald Prize at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s field looked to be very open with many first time finalists but the portrait of Thornton seemed to attract the eye of many experts who had seen the exhibition.
“We have made Craig Ruddy favourite at $8.00 as the portrait has a lot of presence and he is a past winner with his portrait of David Gulpilil in 2004,” Sullivan said.
“The fact this portrait is quite similar to his 2004 winner could count against him though.”
Sportingbet have the Ian Smith portrait of 1984 Archie winner Keith Looby as second pick at $11 with 2005 and 2006 finalist Jasper Knight third favourite at $12.
“The portraits by Ian Smith and Jasper Knight are the type of paintings that have been successful in the Archibald’s in recent year and look certain contenders,” Sullivan said.
“The Packer’s prize winner, Nafisa’s portrait of Glen A Baker is also well in the market at $16 but it would have to break the trend of the Packer’s prize never having won the Archie.”
2010 Archibald Prize
Sportingbet Australia Market
Craig Ruddy - The Prince of Darkness - Warwick Thornton 8.00
Ian Smith - Keith Looby Alfresco 11.00
Jasper Knight - Bill Wright AM 12.00
Apple Yin - The Previous Life 14.00
Adam Chang - Two Eyes - Closing To Open (Simeon Kronenberg) 16.00
McLean Edwards - Tim Storrier 16.00
Khue Nguyen - Unleashed 16.00
Rodney Pople - Stelarc Triptych 16.00
Nafisa - Glenn in Black & White 16.00
Chi Kordelya - Mr Walker 18.00
Sam Leach - Tim Minchin 18.00
Nick Stathopoulos - The Bequest 18.00
Kevin Connor - Self Portrait 21.00
Peter Clifton Kendall - Underdog 21.00
Pobert Malherbe - The squire - portrait of Luke Sciberras 21.00
Victor Rubin - John Olsen - A Diptych - Part I Seated: Part II in his Bath 21.00
Greg Somers - Self Portrait with the Picture of Dory in Frey 21.00
Nigel Milsom - Adam Cullen (Bird as Prophet) 21.00
Adam Cullen - Gareth at the Country Fair 23.00
Paul Newton - Self portrait #2 – Dark Night of the Soul 23.00
Marc de Jong - Janice Petersen 26.00
Robert Hannaford - Malcolm Fraser 26.00
Paul Ryan - Danie Mellor, True Blue Country 26.00
Peter Smeeth - Peter FitzSimons, author 26.00
James Money - The Lord Mayor of Melbourne 26.00
Kate Beynon - Self Portrait with Guardian Spirits 31.00
Cherry Hood - Michael Zavros 31.00
Alexander McKenzie - Andrew Upton 31.00
Martin Ball - Jacqueline Fahey 34.00
Dean, Shane & Reilly Bowden - I Wake up with Today! 34.00
Christine OHagan - Kate Ceberano 34.00
I Wang - Bishop Elliott and Lady Jacqueline 34.00
Giles Alexander - The alternative ambassadors 41.00
Carla Fletcher - CW Stoneking 41.00
WAFL betting markets
I haven't seen too much information on the WAFL, but for those who are interested, this might prove interesting:
SOUTH FREMANTLE FAVOURITES TO OPEN AND CLOSE 2010 WITH A WIN
Last season Premiers South Fremantle are favourites to open their Premiership defence with a win over East Perth and make it make it back to back Premierships after leading on-line bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au. was first to release betting markets for 2010.
“The Bulldogs are the benchmark and we expect them to come out barking against the Royals” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Matthew Campbell.
In other Round 1 matches, the Swans are slight favourites over the Falcons while the Tigers and the Sharks are expected to take the points.
In Premiership betting, the Swans and the Tigers are just behind the Bulldogs in the betting while perennial Grand Finalists, Subiaco are next at $7.00.
WAFL Round 1
South Fremantle $1.50
East Perth $2.55
West Perth $2.05
Swan Districts $1.75
Peel Thunder $6.00
Claremont $1.12
Perth $2.55
East Fremantle $1.50
WAFL Premiership 2010
South Fremantle $3.50
Swan Districts $4.00
Claremont $4.50
Subiaco $7.00
East Perth $8.50
West Perth $14.00
East Fremantle $16.00
Perth $26.00
Peel Thunder $51.00
SOUTH FREMANTLE FAVOURITES TO OPEN AND CLOSE 2010 WITH A WIN
Last season Premiers South Fremantle are favourites to open their Premiership defence with a win over East Perth and make it make it back to back Premierships after leading on-line bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au. was first to release betting markets for 2010.
“The Bulldogs are the benchmark and we expect them to come out barking against the Royals” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Matthew Campbell.
In other Round 1 matches, the Swans are slight favourites over the Falcons while the Tigers and the Sharks are expected to take the points.
In Premiership betting, the Swans and the Tigers are just behind the Bulldogs in the betting while perennial Grand Finalists, Subiaco are next at $7.00.
WAFL Round 1
South Fremantle $1.50
East Perth $2.55
West Perth $2.05
Swan Districts $1.75
Peel Thunder $6.00
Claremont $1.12
Perth $2.55
East Fremantle $1.50
WAFL Premiership 2010
South Fremantle $3.50
Swan Districts $4.00
Claremont $4.50
Subiaco $7.00
East Perth $8.50
West Perth $14.00
East Fremantle $16.00
Perth $26.00
Peel Thunder $51.00
NRL Manly vs Parramatta specials
Parramatta will be specials this weekend against an under-manned Manly outfit. The Eels are one of the few sides who will be able to match it with the Manly forwards, but their backline spearheaded by Hayne at fullback and Tahu in the centres look likely to be too strong.
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
Tiger Woods favourite for Masters
Bookies have been quick this morning to place Tiger Woods at the top of their lines for the Masters. They would have lost a heap to those willing to back that Woods would return for the event. Now, it seems, they'll be willing to take him on against a strong field.
Woods will no doubt be keen to get back on the golf course, and if he can make the cut, he's as good a chance as any to take out the tournament. Anybody who's played much sport will dismiss any theory that he might be a bit rusty. All the psychology will be firmly in his favour.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
GOLF: TIGER INSTALLED FAVOURITE FOR US MASTERS
Tiger Woods has been instantly installed as favourite for the US Masters after announcing he would return to golf at Augusta in April.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Woods’ dominance over the past decade meant he had to be favourite despite being out of the game for months.
“We are posting Tiger as a $4.50 favourite for the Masters and I am sure punters will be keen to back him,” Sullivan said.
“Woods was a $3.00 favourite for last year’s Masters so the time out has had an effect on his price.
“Tiger has the biggest following of any sportsmen among punters because he has looked after them so many times in the past and I am sure they will back him here.
“There is no doubt he will start the tournament as favourite and it would be a brave man to say he couldn’t win.”
Woods will no doubt be keen to get back on the golf course, and if he can make the cut, he's as good a chance as any to take out the tournament. Anybody who's played much sport will dismiss any theory that he might be a bit rusty. All the psychology will be firmly in his favour.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
GOLF: TIGER INSTALLED FAVOURITE FOR US MASTERS
Tiger Woods has been instantly installed as favourite for the US Masters after announcing he would return to golf at Augusta in April.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Woods’ dominance over the past decade meant he had to be favourite despite being out of the game for months.
“We are posting Tiger as a $4.50 favourite for the Masters and I am sure punters will be keen to back him,” Sullivan said.
“Woods was a $3.00 favourite for last year’s Masters so the time out has had an effect on his price.
“Tiger has the biggest following of any sportsmen among punters because he has looked after them so many times in the past and I am sure they will back him here.
“There is no doubt he will start the tournament as favourite and it would be a brave man to say he couldn’t win.”
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Golden Slipper attracts Star Witness
There has been a lot of publicity and talk about Star Witness in the media lately. The horse cost $150,000 and is now worth in excess of $6 million - a good investment by any standards.
But it is open to debate whether the publicity is leading to the betting plunge, or actual ability of the horse. No doubt it is a quality nag. History will tell whether it's worth following the punters though.
BIG SLIPPER PLUNGE ON STAR WITNESS
Blue Diamond winner Star Witness has been the subject of a betting plunge shortening from $10 to $6.50 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had taken bets to take out over $250,000 on the colt and he was now his worst result for the Slipper.
“We took two bets of $90,000 to $10,000 and we took another bet of $5000 as the price tumbled in as well,” Sullivan said.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since connections changed their mind about coming to Sydney.
“His Blue Diamond win was outstanding and with the pace sure to be on in the Slipper, his pattern of sitting off the speed should suit.”
Sullivan said punters were looking away from the Sydney form at the moment.
“We have been best price Beneteau and Chance Bye who look to have the some of the best Sydney form away from Solar Charged and we can’t find a punter to back them.
“Magic Millions winner Military Rose has been the other runner they have come for in the last week with bets to take out over $50,000 arriving for her.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 6.50
Crystal Lily (nn) 7.50
Military Rose 11.00
Chance Bye 13.00
Elimbari 13.00
Beneteau 13.00
Hinchinbrook 13.00
Zutara 13.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Psychologist 17.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Divorces 26.00
Skilled 31.00
Brightexpectations 31.00
Hiatus 35.00
Maules Creek 35.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Evidentia 35.00
Intertidal 35.00
But it is open to debate whether the publicity is leading to the betting plunge, or actual ability of the horse. No doubt it is a quality nag. History will tell whether it's worth following the punters though.
BIG SLIPPER PLUNGE ON STAR WITNESS
Blue Diamond winner Star Witness has been the subject of a betting plunge shortening from $10 to $6.50 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he had taken bets to take out over $250,000 on the colt and he was now his worst result for the Slipper.
“We took two bets of $90,000 to $10,000 and we took another bet of $5000 as the price tumbled in as well,” Sullivan said.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since connections changed their mind about coming to Sydney.
“His Blue Diamond win was outstanding and with the pace sure to be on in the Slipper, his pattern of sitting off the speed should suit.”
Sullivan said punters were looking away from the Sydney form at the moment.
“We have been best price Beneteau and Chance Bye who look to have the some of the best Sydney form away from Solar Charged and we can’t find a punter to back them.
“Magic Millions winner Military Rose has been the other runner they have come for in the last week with bets to take out over $50,000 arriving for her.”
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 6.50
Crystal Lily (nn) 7.50
Military Rose 11.00
Chance Bye 13.00
Elimbari 13.00
Beneteau 13.00
Hinchinbrook 13.00
Zutara 13.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Psychologist 17.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 23.00
Shrapnel 23.00
Divorces 26.00
Skilled 31.00
Brightexpectations 31.00
Hiatus 35.00
Maules Creek 35.00
Mafia Miss 35.00
Evidentia 35.00
Intertidal 35.00
Friday, March 12, 2010
Australia Cup horse racing update
We expect a bold showing from Zipping ... just when some might least expect it.
ZARITA BACKED FOR AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia punters are looking past the favourites in the Australian Cup with the best early money coming for Pat Hyland’s stable star Zarita.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said bets on Zarita included one of $2000 each way at $15 while Heart Of Dreams was proving hard to lay.
“We’ve had a little bit of money for Shocking but punters just aren’t interested in the favourite at this stage.”
“But punters definitely think Zarita can repeat her Sunline Stakes win and have been keen to snap up the $15 about her.”
AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 6.00
Zipping 7.00
Shocking 8.00
Sirmione 8.00
Miss Maren 9.00
Barbaricus 10.00
Extra Zero 13.00
Zagreb 15.00
Zarita 15.00
Littorio 16.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Tobique 21.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Growl 51.00
Moatize 61.00
ZARITA BACKED FOR AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia punters are looking past the favourites in the Australian Cup with the best early money coming for Pat Hyland’s stable star Zarita.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said bets on Zarita included one of $2000 each way at $15 while Heart Of Dreams was proving hard to lay.
“We’ve had a little bit of money for Shocking but punters just aren’t interested in the favourite at this stage.”
“But punters definitely think Zarita can repeat her Sunline Stakes win and have been keen to snap up the $15 about her.”
AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 6.00
Zipping 7.00
Shocking 8.00
Sirmione 8.00
Miss Maren 9.00
Barbaricus 10.00
Extra Zero 13.00
Zagreb 15.00
Zarita 15.00
Littorio 16.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Tobique 21.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Growl 51.00
Moatize 61.00
Clarke to be next Australian cricket captain
This is a no-brainer. Of course Michael Clarke will succeed Ricky Ponting, unless he's injured in the meantime. It's as solid an investment as there is at $1.25 - that is, if you can wait long enough for Ricky Ponting to retire in order to collect your dividend.
Credit to Shane Watson for his recent performances with bat and ball, but he's got about as much chance of becoming Australian test captain as my mother.
WHO WILL BE AUSTRALIA’S NEXT TEST CAPTAIN?
Sportingbet Australia has opened a market on who will be succeed Ricky Ponting as Test captain following the controversy over Michael Clarke’s departure from the tour of New Zealand.
Despite the controversy surrounding Clarke, he has been installed $1.25 favourite to take over from Ponting.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there appeared to be a lack of serious contenders to the incumbent vice-captain.
“Michael Clarke would have been $1.01 had we put this market up a few weeks ago and while he still looks the next captain, he isn’t the certainty he once was,” Sullivan said.
“Some have suggested Cameron White but, while he has outstanding leadership credentials, the fact remains he appears to be behind Steve Smith for a spot in the side.
“Simon Katich and Michael Hussey have longevity issues while there’d have to be some doubt about the suitability of both Brad Haddin or Shane Watson for the role when they don’t even captain their state sides.
“Michael Clarke remains favourite essentially by default in the current side and unless Ponting lasts another four or five years, he looks the only choice.”
Sullivan revealed there had been some backing for Shane Watson with his odds shortening from $41.00 to $31.00 in the last twenty-four hours.
NEXT AUSTRALIAN TEST CAPTAIN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Michael Clarke 1.25
Michael Hussey 6.00
Cameron White 7.00
Simon Katich 9.00
Brad Haddin 12.00
Shane Watson 31.00
Marcus North 67.00
George Bailey 101.00
Any Other 21.00
Credit to Shane Watson for his recent performances with bat and ball, but he's got about as much chance of becoming Australian test captain as my mother.
WHO WILL BE AUSTRALIA’S NEXT TEST CAPTAIN?
Sportingbet Australia has opened a market on who will be succeed Ricky Ponting as Test captain following the controversy over Michael Clarke’s departure from the tour of New Zealand.
Despite the controversy surrounding Clarke, he has been installed $1.25 favourite to take over from Ponting.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there appeared to be a lack of serious contenders to the incumbent vice-captain.
“Michael Clarke would have been $1.01 had we put this market up a few weeks ago and while he still looks the next captain, he isn’t the certainty he once was,” Sullivan said.
“Some have suggested Cameron White but, while he has outstanding leadership credentials, the fact remains he appears to be behind Steve Smith for a spot in the side.
“Simon Katich and Michael Hussey have longevity issues while there’d have to be some doubt about the suitability of both Brad Haddin or Shane Watson for the role when they don’t even captain their state sides.
“Michael Clarke remains favourite essentially by default in the current side and unless Ponting lasts another four or five years, he looks the only choice.”
Sullivan revealed there had been some backing for Shane Watson with his odds shortening from $41.00 to $31.00 in the last twenty-four hours.
NEXT AUSTRALIAN TEST CAPTAIN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Michael Clarke 1.25
Michael Hussey 6.00
Cameron White 7.00
Simon Katich 9.00
Brad Haddin 12.00
Shane Watson 31.00
Marcus North 67.00
George Bailey 101.00
Any Other 21.00
So You Think You Can Dance
Public vote tends to be rather fickle, particularly early in the competition. If you can identify some good value among the outsiders, now is the time to get on.
Essentially, you're looking for someone who could make an impression three or four weeks out from the final. Easier said than done, I know!
ROBBIE IS THE ONLY DANCER PUNTERS WANT
After weeks of chopping and changing favourites at Sportingbet Australia the SYTYCD market has finally sorted itself out with Sydney contemporary dancer Robbie a dominant $2.50 favourite.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Robbie was the only dancer punters wanted to be on.
“Robbie started out as a $13.00 chance in the competition with several punters smart enough to take those odds,” said Sullivan.
“His confidence has grown since he’s been partnered with Ivy and punters have backed him into his current price with several on to win $2000.”
Another Sydney dancer in Hip Hopper Jess S is second favourite at $8.00 ahead of Melbourne Ballroom dancer Kieran at $9.00.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 2.50
Jess.S 8.00
Kieran 9.00
Nick 10.00
Heath 10.00
Ivy 11.00
Renee 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Carly 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Philipe 41.00
Essentially, you're looking for someone who could make an impression three or four weeks out from the final. Easier said than done, I know!
ROBBIE IS THE ONLY DANCER PUNTERS WANT
After weeks of chopping and changing favourites at Sportingbet Australia the SYTYCD market has finally sorted itself out with Sydney contemporary dancer Robbie a dominant $2.50 favourite.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Robbie was the only dancer punters wanted to be on.
“Robbie started out as a $13.00 chance in the competition with several punters smart enough to take those odds,” said Sullivan.
“His confidence has grown since he’s been partnered with Ivy and punters have backed him into his current price with several on to win $2000.”
Another Sydney dancer in Hip Hopper Jess S is second favourite at $8.00 ahead of Melbourne Ballroom dancer Kieran at $9.00.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 2.50
Jess.S 8.00
Kieran 9.00
Nick 10.00
Heath 10.00
Ivy 11.00
Renee 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Carly 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Philipe 41.00
Randwick Guineas update
Update from the bookmakers:
GUINEAS BACKING FOR SHOOT OUT AND MONTON
Sportingbet Australia punters are banking on the Hobartville Stakes quinella being repeated in tomorrow’s Randwick Guineas with strong money coming for Shoot Out and Monton.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Shoot Out’s odds had been trimmed from $4.00 to $3.50 with Monton’s quote almost halved from $17 to $9.
“The money says these two will again be fighting out a feature race,” said Sullivan.
“All the early money was for Shoot Out before punters stepped in to Monton in a big way.
“They snapped up the $17, came again at $13 and are still not afraid to take the $9 on offer now.”
RANDWICK GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Shoot Out 3.50
Hanks 8.00
Monton 9.00
Sir Halowell 9.50
Viking Legend 10.00
Kidnapped 11.00
Captain Sonador 12.00
Zabrasive 15.00
Indian Ocean 21.00
Cosmocrat 21.00
More Than Great 26.00
Leicester Square 26.00
Run For Naara 26.00
Delago Bolt 41.00
Gathering 91.00
Saint Encosta 126.00
GUINEAS BACKING FOR SHOOT OUT AND MONTON
Sportingbet Australia punters are banking on the Hobartville Stakes quinella being repeated in tomorrow’s Randwick Guineas with strong money coming for Shoot Out and Monton.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Shoot Out’s odds had been trimmed from $4.00 to $3.50 with Monton’s quote almost halved from $17 to $9.
“The money says these two will again be fighting out a feature race,” said Sullivan.
“All the early money was for Shoot Out before punters stepped in to Monton in a big way.
“They snapped up the $17, came again at $13 and are still not afraid to take the $9 on offer now.”
RANDWICK GUINEAS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Shoot Out 3.50
Hanks 8.00
Monton 9.00
Sir Halowell 9.50
Viking Legend 10.00
Kidnapped 11.00
Captain Sonador 12.00
Zabrasive 15.00
Indian Ocean 21.00
Cosmocrat 21.00
More Than Great 26.00
Leicester Square 26.00
Run For Naara 26.00
Delago Bolt 41.00
Gathering 91.00
Saint Encosta 126.00
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Big bets on Solar Charged into Typhoon Tracy
I love stories about big bets:
PUNTER ON TO WIN $360,000 ON BOOM FILLY DOUBLE
One Sportingbet Australia punter stands to win himself $360,000 after outlaying $10,000 on a feature double featuring the two boom females of Australian racing .
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter had backed Solar Charged to win the Golden Slipper and Typhoon Tracy to salute in the Doncaster.
“It’s a good bet and I can think of worse horses that you’d want to be on in these races,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged brained some other good fillies in the Kindergarten and Typhoon Tracy has dominated in Melbourne and showed the mile is no problem.
“With Solar Charged now a $4.20 favourite for the Slipper and Typhoon Tracy at $7.00 for the Doncaster this punter has got himself some pretty good value.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged continued to be well backed in Golden Slipper betting with punters keen to get on at the $4.20.
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 7.00
Beneteau 8.00
Chance Bye 10.00
Military Rose 10.00
Zutara 11.00
Elimbari 13.00
Ambers Waltz 14.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 15.00
Psychologist 17.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Hinchinbrook 19.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 21.00
Others 23.00 Plus
PUNTER ON TO WIN $360,000 ON BOOM FILLY DOUBLE
One Sportingbet Australia punter stands to win himself $360,000 after outlaying $10,000 on a feature double featuring the two boom females of Australian racing .
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the punter had backed Solar Charged to win the Golden Slipper and Typhoon Tracy to salute in the Doncaster.
“It’s a good bet and I can think of worse horses that you’d want to be on in these races,” said Sullivan.
“Solar Charged brained some other good fillies in the Kindergarten and Typhoon Tracy has dominated in Melbourne and showed the mile is no problem.
“With Solar Charged now a $4.20 favourite for the Slipper and Typhoon Tracy at $7.00 for the Doncaster this punter has got himself some pretty good value.”
Sullivan said Solar Charged continued to be well backed in Golden Slipper betting with punters keen to get on at the $4.20.
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 4.20
Star Witness (nn) 7.00
Beneteau 8.00
Chance Bye 10.00
Military Rose 10.00
Zutara 11.00
Elimbari 13.00
Ambers Waltz 14.00
Crystal Lily (nn) 15.00
Psychologist 17.00
Shaaheq 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Hinchinbrook 19.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
My Amelia 21.00
Others 23.00 Plus
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
South Australian election result
It is very rare that punters get elections wrong. They're often a good way of cashing up. Bet on the upset if you dare, but we believe that to be unwise.
Here's the latest from the bookies on the South Australian election:
PUNTERS BACK REDMOND TO BEAT RANN
Isobel Redmond and the Liberals are certainly attracting the support of punters with a series of big bets seeing their South Australian state election odds slashed from $5.00 to $2.90 at Sportingbet Australia.
The Liberals were rank outsiders and given little chance by bookmakers a couple of months ago but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the tide had certainly turned and 95% of bets in the past week had been for the Liberals.
“Before the Mike Rann affair story broke, Labor looked a certainty to be returned in South Australia but he now faces a real fight with polls showing Isobel Redmond’s numbers continuing to improve,” Sullivan said.
“Labor still remain $1.40 favourites but we haven’t written a bet on them this week while there has been a number of big bets placed on the opposition.
“The party that firms in the betting market in the last couple of weeks of the campaign have a tremendous record of winning and I would expect to see the Liberals to continue to shorten.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.40
Liberals 2.90
Here's the latest from the bookies on the South Australian election:
PUNTERS BACK REDMOND TO BEAT RANN
Isobel Redmond and the Liberals are certainly attracting the support of punters with a series of big bets seeing their South Australian state election odds slashed from $5.00 to $2.90 at Sportingbet Australia.
The Liberals were rank outsiders and given little chance by bookmakers a couple of months ago but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the tide had certainly turned and 95% of bets in the past week had been for the Liberals.
“Before the Mike Rann affair story broke, Labor looked a certainty to be returned in South Australia but he now faces a real fight with polls showing Isobel Redmond’s numbers continuing to improve,” Sullivan said.
“Labor still remain $1.40 favourites but we haven’t written a bet on them this week while there has been a number of big bets placed on the opposition.
“The party that firms in the betting market in the last couple of weeks of the campaign have a tremendous record of winning and I would expect to see the Liberals to continue to shorten.”
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.40
Liberals 2.90
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Western Bulldogs not worth $50,000
This one's a brave bet, given that the Doggies looked quite vulnerable on their way to the pre-season final. Yes, winning form is promising, but do they have what it takes to carry through the entire season?
People at times forget St Kilda and Geelong are still in the running, and Collingwood's midfield is every bit as good as the Dogs this year. Barry Hall could make a difference, but he'll have to kick 80-100 goals for the season to make a true impact in my book.
Here's the latest from sportingbet:
PUNTER BACKS BULLDOG FLAG TO WIN $275,000
The Western Bulldogs may have only won one premiership in eighty-five years of AFL/VFL but one Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Barry Hall can help provide them with a second after outlaying $50,000 on them at $6.50.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said it was a massive vote of confidence in the Cinderella team.
“We’ve got used to writing these kind of bets on the likes of Geelong, St Kilda and Hawthorn in the last few seasons but $275,000 to $50,000 is by far the biggest flag bet we’ve ever written on the Doggies,” said Sullivan.
“While they’ve fallen short at the penultimate hurdle each of the last two years punters are certainly in agreement with Jason Akermanis that 2010 is their best chance of winning the big one.
“While most of Australia wouldn’t begrudge a smiling Brad Johnson holding the premiership cup aloft it’s looking like costing Sportingbet Australia plenty.”
The Bulldogs are now into $5.50 with last year’s Grand Finalists Geelong and St Kilda heading betting at $4.00 and $4.75 respectively.
2010 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.75
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Adelaide 9.00
Hawthorn 9.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 26.00
Essendon 41.00
Sydney 51.00
Port Adelaide 67.00
West Coast 67.00
Fremantle 81.00
North Melbourne 101.00
Melbourne 126.00
Richmond 151.00
People at times forget St Kilda and Geelong are still in the running, and Collingwood's midfield is every bit as good as the Dogs this year. Barry Hall could make a difference, but he'll have to kick 80-100 goals for the season to make a true impact in my book.
Here's the latest from sportingbet:
PUNTER BACKS BULLDOG FLAG TO WIN $275,000
The Western Bulldogs may have only won one premiership in eighty-five years of AFL/VFL but one Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Barry Hall can help provide them with a second after outlaying $50,000 on them at $6.50.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said it was a massive vote of confidence in the Cinderella team.
“We’ve got used to writing these kind of bets on the likes of Geelong, St Kilda and Hawthorn in the last few seasons but $275,000 to $50,000 is by far the biggest flag bet we’ve ever written on the Doggies,” said Sullivan.
“While they’ve fallen short at the penultimate hurdle each of the last two years punters are certainly in agreement with Jason Akermanis that 2010 is their best chance of winning the big one.
“While most of Australia wouldn’t begrudge a smiling Brad Johnson holding the premiership cup aloft it’s looking like costing Sportingbet Australia plenty.”
The Bulldogs are now into $5.50 with last year’s Grand Finalists Geelong and St Kilda heading betting at $4.00 and $4.75 respectively.
2010 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.75
Western Bulldogs 5.50
Adelaide 9.00
Hawthorn 9.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 26.00
Essendon 41.00
Sydney 51.00
Port Adelaide 67.00
West Coast 67.00
Fremantle 81.00
North Melbourne 101.00
Melbourne 126.00
Richmond 151.00
Saturday, March 6, 2010
The Hurt Locker to win Oscars
Bookmakers are seeing a plunge for The Hurt Locker leading into the Academy Awards, and with good reason.
As good as Avatar might have been - and it will go down in history alongside the likes of Star Wars - it's not the type of film usually adopted by the Academy suits. They seem to like it real, and that's what punters are banking on.
But while the last round of awards saw The Hurt Locker take ascendency, don't forget the Golden Globes as a key indicator, where Avatar was the winner.
Here at Aussiepunt, we're tipping Avatar to walk away with three gongs.
Meanwhile, here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS DESERT AVATAR
Sportingbet Australia punters have shunned box office smash Avatar ahead of Monday morning’s (Australian Time) Academy Awards ceremony.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the James Cameron blockbuster had drifted from $1.66 to $2.25 over the past two weeks.
“Avatar had all the momentum two weeks ago with us taking several four figure bets at the $1.66,” said Sullivan.
“But with The Hurt Locker picking up the last couple of lead in awards the betting has been turned on its head.”
Sullivan said The Hurt Locker had firmed from $2.25 to $1.75 in the same period with some big bets being written.
“It’s been all The Hurt Locker recently with bets including one of $3000 at $1.75,” Sullivan said.”
“Despite enjoying only moderate success at the box office this film has all the momentum in the race for Best Picture.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering betting on how many Oscars Avatar picks up with five the favourite at $3.00.
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
The Hurt Locker 1.75
Avatar 2.25
Inglorious Basterds 15.00
Up In The Air 41.00
Up 41.00
Precious 67.00
The Blind Side 101.00
An Education 151.00
District 9 151.00
A Serious Man 201.00
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – HOW MANY OSCARS FOR AVATAR?
Sportingbet Australia Market
Five 3.00
Six 4.25
Four 4.50
Three 5.50
Seven 6.50
Eight 9.00
Two 12.00
Nine 26.00
One 51.00
None 101.00
As good as Avatar might have been - and it will go down in history alongside the likes of Star Wars - it's not the type of film usually adopted by the Academy suits. They seem to like it real, and that's what punters are banking on.
But while the last round of awards saw The Hurt Locker take ascendency, don't forget the Golden Globes as a key indicator, where Avatar was the winner.
Here at Aussiepunt, we're tipping Avatar to walk away with three gongs.
Meanwhile, here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS DESERT AVATAR
Sportingbet Australia punters have shunned box office smash Avatar ahead of Monday morning’s (Australian Time) Academy Awards ceremony.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the James Cameron blockbuster had drifted from $1.66 to $2.25 over the past two weeks.
“Avatar had all the momentum two weeks ago with us taking several four figure bets at the $1.66,” said Sullivan.
“But with The Hurt Locker picking up the last couple of lead in awards the betting has been turned on its head.”
Sullivan said The Hurt Locker had firmed from $2.25 to $1.75 in the same period with some big bets being written.
“It’s been all The Hurt Locker recently with bets including one of $3000 at $1.75,” Sullivan said.”
“Despite enjoying only moderate success at the box office this film has all the momentum in the race for Best Picture.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering betting on how many Oscars Avatar picks up with five the favourite at $3.00.
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – BEST PICTURE
Sportingbet Australia Market
The Hurt Locker 1.75
Avatar 2.25
Inglorious Basterds 15.00
Up In The Air 41.00
Up 41.00
Precious 67.00
The Blind Side 101.00
An Education 151.00
District 9 151.00
A Serious Man 201.00
2010 ACADEMY AWARDS – HOW MANY OSCARS FOR AVATAR?
Sportingbet Australia Market
Five 3.00
Six 4.25
Four 4.50
Three 5.50
Seven 6.50
Eight 9.00
Two 12.00
Nine 26.00
One 51.00
None 101.00
Friday, March 5, 2010
Golden slipper betting
Sportingbet has taken some big bets on Solar Charged, but we wouldn't be jumping on the bandwagon quite yet.
John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.
SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED
The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.
“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.
“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”
Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.
“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.
KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus
John O'Shea seems to have a happy knack of getting horses up for this time of year, but let's just wait to see how the horse fares in the Kindergarten Stakes before making a solid call.
SOLID BACKING FOR SOLAR CHARGED
The John O’Shea trained Solar Charged has been heavily backed for the Golden Slipper at Sportingbet Australia ahead of return to racing in the Kindergarten Stakes on Saturday.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Solar Charged was now a clear Golden Slipper favourite after another two big bets arrived for her this week.
“She has been backed from $8.50 to $7.00 this week after we took bets to win $30,000 and another to win $25,000,” Sullivan said.
“We all saw how impressive she was in the trial and she should be very hard to beat in the Kindergarten on Saturday.”
Solar Charged is currently a $1.85 at Sportingbet for the Kindergarten ahead of impressive last start winners Elimbari and Georgette Silk at $5.00.
“The trial was very impressive but a few of the others have won well already this preparation and I will definitely be looking to lay here at $1.85,” Sullivan said.
KINDERGARTEN STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 1.85
Elimbari 5.00
Georgette Silk 5.00
Agister 14.00
Triple Crown 15.00
Top Drop 17.00
Gold Arena 26.00
Manahara 26.00
Howdiddydoit 61.00
Hour Of Peril 126.00
GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Solar Charged 7.00
Chance Bye 8.00
Beneteau 9.00
Military Rose 12.00
Zutara 12.00
Psychologist 15.00
Ambers Waltz 15.00
Elimbari 16.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Divorces 18.00
Georgette Silk 20.00
Shaaheq 21.00
My Amelia 21.00
Run For Wilson 23.00
Maules Creek 26.00
Others 35.00 Plus
So You Think You Can Dance elimination shock
If you can pick the winner of this one, there's some value to be had!
SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE
The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.
“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.
“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”
NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00
SHOCK ELIMINATIONS CAUSE MARKET RESHUFFLE
The shock elimination of one time favourite Grace and Doug from So You Think You Can Dance has caused a market reshuffle at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this year’s voting was proving tough for both punters and bookies.
“We probably would have bet 200/1 if you’d wanted to back the combinations that landed in the bottom three on Thursday evening,” said Sullivan.
“We were shocked about all of them with the possible exception of Doug and Jess and so were our punters who had heavily backed Don and Issi to get the chop.”
NSW contemporary dancer Robbie heads the market at $6.50.
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Robbie 6.50
Heath 8.00
Nick 8.50
Renee 9.00
Keiran 9.00
Jess.S 10.00
Ivy 12.00
Carly 12.00
Jessica.P 14.00
Jessie H 17.00
Matt 21.00
Don 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Issi 34.00
Newmarket horse racing field
Latest Newmarket odds from Sportingbet:
PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE
The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.
“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.
“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.
“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”
All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.
“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.
“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”
NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00
PUNTERS STILL RIGHT ON THE PULSE
The Michael Moroney trained King Pulse continues to be backed to cause a first up surprise in the Newmarket shortening to $12 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the gelding has shortened from $15 to $12 in the past 24 hours as a number of big bets were written.
“One client has had $10,000 each way at $15 so he stands to collect nearly $200,000 alone,” Sullivan said.
“He showed tremendous promise in his three runs in the Spring and this level of support certainly suggest he is flying on the track.
“It is a massive step up to the Newmarket but there is obviously a degree of confidence that he can take the next step.”
All Silent retains favouritism in a very open Newmarket at Sportingbet at $5.50 ahead of Starspangledbanner at $7.50 and Eagle Falls and Nicconi at $9.00.
“The favourites have actually been a little easy here with punters betting very wide, we have laid every horse in the race,” Sullivan said.
“There has also been good money for Turffontein, Wanted and Tollesprit who are all big odds.”
NEWMARKET HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 6.00
Starspangledbanner 7.50
Nicconi 9.00
Eagle Falls 9.00
King Pulse 12.00
Wanted 14.00
Turffontein 17.00
Gran Sasso 17.00
Headway 17.00
Tollesprit 17.00
Tickets 18.00
Trusting 18.00
El Segundo 19.00
Duporth 21.00
Arinos 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Light Fantastic 31.00
Cannonball 61.00
Five Card Stud 81.00
Thursday, March 4, 2010
Lay against Denman in Australian Guineas
This statement came from IASbet in an effort to attract money for Denman. But if you believe the argument - and there's plenty of substance to it - rather than trying to find another pick to back, the wise thing to do would be to lay Denman with Betfair.
That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.
IASbet.com take on Denman
Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.
That way, you've got the field covered, especially if Denman is indeed to struggle in the wet from the outside barrier.
IASbet.com take on Denman
Form analysts at IASbet.com believe that the Peter Snowden trained superstar Denman is vulnerable in Saturdays Group One Australian Guineas and are prepared to take him on. While other bookmakers and the TAB have him between $1.55 and $1.65, IASbet.com is willing and able to lay him at $1.80. Its not a foregone conclusion, there is rain forecast and the race may well be set up for horses to run over him. I expect Denman to lead from his outside barrier and it may not be an advantage to be on the rail said IASBets John Dow. The son of Lonhro has won nine of his last ten with his only defeat being at the same distance in the Caulfield Guineas. I think history is about to repeat itself. said Dow.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
AFL NAB Cup tips
To some, it might be the "Who Cares Cup", but with the pre-season AFL competition at the pointy end, the sides might just be starting to give a damn.
I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.
A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.
And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.
My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.
Here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS
Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.
“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.
“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”
Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.
“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.
“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”
NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50
I've watched a number of the games, and Freo have been more impressive than the $9.50 which punters have them at to win the competition. If they can sneak past St Kilda (who have had two one-point wins so far), they'll firm to favourites.
A lot of questions remain unanswered for the Bulldogs, particularly with a new structure featuring Barry Hall at full forward. What happens when their new focal point loses some of his effectiveness? At this point, I'd be more inclined to bet against them than with them.
And after a horror end to their 2009 season, Port will have a lot to prove.
My advice: Ignore the odds and go with your gut. The Saints are rightly favourites, but we'd have the other three on an equal second line of betting.
Here's Sportingbet's take:
PUNTERS WANT SAINTS AND DOGS
Sportingbet Australia punters think favourites St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs will each earn a spot in the NAB Cup Grand Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the two top four sides from last season had each been well backed to win the pre season cup.
“There hasn’t been a great deal for the Saints this week, with their odds into $2.30 but we’ve written bets to take out $15,000 and $10,000 along the way,” said Sullivan.
“Punters chimed in with $2000 at $2.75 and another $2000 at $2.65 for the Doggies over the weekend as well as one who outlaid $1000 at the good odds of $10 before the competition began.”
Sullivan said while both non Victorian clubs would start outsiders in their Semi Final matches there had been a couple of punters who managed to get on at big odds pre tournament.
“We have one punter who stands to win them self $5000 by having what would have seemed a brave $200 on the Dockers at $26,” Sullivan said.
“But an even better story is the punter who placed $200 on Port at the massive odds of $51 and stands to win $10,000 if they can win their next two matches.”
NAB CUP - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
St Kilda 2.30
Western Bulldogs 2.60
Port Adelaide 5.50
Fremantle 9.50
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Australia Cup tips
There seems to be plenty of action in early Australia Cup betting.
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:
EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP
Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.
“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.
“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”
Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.
“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.
AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00
But there is one horse which starred last Spring in the leadup to the Melbourne Cup, yet has fallen out of favour with punters - Speed Gifted.
The horse, if we remember rightly, didn't quite step up to the two mile despite being well backed prior to the Melbourne Cup. It did, however, cover the ground over 2000m extremely well. With maturity on its side, we won't be minding an each way dabble on the promising stayer.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet:
EXTRA ZERO BACKED TO WIN AUSTRALIAN CUP
Punters are questioning the strength of the older horses in the Australian Cup with three year old, Extra Zero clearly the best backed runner this week at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the David Hayes trained colt had been backed from $18 to $13 since his win at Caulfield on Saturday.
“In the 48 hours since we reposted the market, he has been the only one punters have wanted,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet to win $20,000 and a couple of others to win $10,000 and there is still strong support coming for him.
“There aren’t many genuine group one weight for age horse entered so the pull in the weights as the only three year old entered could be a huge advantage for Extra Zero.”
Heart Of Dreams and Zipping still head the Sportingbet market at $7.00 and $7.50 respectively.
“They are the obvious two, especially Zipping who is a dual Cox Plate place getter and has been aimed at this race,” Sullivan said.
AUSTRALIAN CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 7.50
Shocking 8.00
Our Aqaleem 10.00
Extra Zero 11.00
Speed Gifted 12.00
Miss Maren 12.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Zagreb 17.00
Snipers Bullet 19.00
Changingoftheguard 19.00
Zarita 21.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Barbaricus 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Joku 51.00
Growl 71.00
Moatize 101.00
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Barry Hall backed for Coleman medal
When we look at those full forwards who can score a high number of goals, for mine it's a contest between Fevola, Franklin (albeit still struggling for form) and Hall. Lecras might be an outside chance along with Bradshaw and Riewoldt.
But in essence, the price is definitely right for Big Bad Barry.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
Former Sydney Swans bad boy Barry Hall is into $13 to win the Coleman Medal after a more than impressive debut for the Western Bulldogs in last night’s NAB Cup demolition of Hawthorn.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Hall had already been well backed at odds of $21 and $15,
“The punters came for Hall at $21 at the start of the week with one punter on to win over $4000,” said Sullivan.
“And he was well backed at $15 immediately after last night’s match.”
Sullivan said Hall’s chance of winning the medal depended on his ability to keep his mind and body together for the bulk of the season.
“Hall’s disciplinary problems have been well publicised and at thirty three he must be a little susceptible to soft tissue injury,” Sullivan said.
“But if he can keep it all together the big bloke must be salivating at the prospect of having the pill delivered by the likes of Cooney, Murphy, Gilbee and co.”
Gun Brisbane recruit Brendan Fevola is $3.75 favourite to win the Coleman ahead of Lance Franklin at $4.50.
COLEMAN MEDAL - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Brendan Fevola [BRIS] 3.75
Lance Franklin [HAW] 4.50
Matthew Pavlich [FRE] 11.00
Daniel Bradshaw [SYD] 13.00
Barry Hall [WBD] 13.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 13.00
Jarryd Roughead [HAW] 15.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 15.00
Kurt Tippett [ADL] 19.00
Mark Lecras [WCE] 23.00
Jason Porplyzia [ADL] 34.00
Daniel Motlop [POR] 34.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 34.00
John Anthony [COL] 34.00
Jesse White [SYD] 34.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 41.00
Mark Williams [ESS] 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
But in essence, the price is definitely right for Big Bad Barry.
Here's the latest from Sportingbet:
Former Sydney Swans bad boy Barry Hall is into $13 to win the Coleman Medal after a more than impressive debut for the Western Bulldogs in last night’s NAB Cup demolition of Hawthorn.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Hall had already been well backed at odds of $21 and $15,
“The punters came for Hall at $21 at the start of the week with one punter on to win over $4000,” said Sullivan.
“And he was well backed at $15 immediately after last night’s match.”
Sullivan said Hall’s chance of winning the medal depended on his ability to keep his mind and body together for the bulk of the season.
“Hall’s disciplinary problems have been well publicised and at thirty three he must be a little susceptible to soft tissue injury,” Sullivan said.
“But if he can keep it all together the big bloke must be salivating at the prospect of having the pill delivered by the likes of Cooney, Murphy, Gilbee and co.”
Gun Brisbane recruit Brendan Fevola is $3.75 favourite to win the Coleman ahead of Lance Franklin at $4.50.
COLEMAN MEDAL - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Brendan Fevola [BRIS] 3.75
Lance Franklin [HAW] 4.50
Matthew Pavlich [FRE] 11.00
Daniel Bradshaw [SYD] 13.00
Barry Hall [WBD] 13.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 13.00
Jarryd Roughead [HAW] 15.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 15.00
Kurt Tippett [ADL] 19.00
Mark Lecras [WCE] 23.00
Jason Porplyzia [ADL] 34.00
Daniel Motlop [POR] 34.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 34.00
John Anthony [COL] 34.00
Jesse White [SYD] 34.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 41.00
Mark Williams [ESS] 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
Early Brownlow Medal tips
It's still in the pre-season, but some punters are already lodging speculators on the Brownlow medal, at least one which stands to make someone a millionaire.
The first is from Sporsbet:
One punter is hoping AFL number one draft pick Tom Scully will have a standout debut season – and then some.
Scully has been backed to win more than a million dollars to win the Brownlow Medal with leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.
“We’ve just taken a bet of $700 on Tom Scully to win the Brownlow at the astronomical odds of $1501 to win $1,050,000,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“There’s no doubt he’s a star and will get plenty of game time in Melbourne’s midfield, although it’s a pretty big ask to take Charlie home in your first season.
“We’re still happy to take him on, yet we’ve had to shorten him into $501 on the back of this bet.”
Another youngster to shorten in Brownlow betting is West Coast’s Nic Naitanui, who has tightened from $301 into $81 following his best on ground performance in the NAB Cup opener.
The big move for Scully follows a bet of $1000 to win $500,000 on 28-year old rookie James Podsiadly to win this year’s Coleman Medal.
The next is from Sportingbet and focuses on young superstar Nick Natanui. While he'll be part of my supercoach team, I can't see him doing quite enough to pick up the prized gong.
Take a sneaky look, however, at a couple on the $67 line, notably Brad Sewell and Scott Pendlebury:
NATANUI BACKED FOR BROWNLOW
Exciting West Coast Eagles youngster Nick Natanui has been backed to win the Brownlow Medal at big odds to win the Brownlow Medal at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Natanui represented one of the worst results in the book at this stage.
“There was solid support for him at odds as long as $251 before Friday night’s best on ground performance and there’s been steady support at $101 since,” said Sullivan.
“We have several punters on to win over $10,000 and it’s fair to say he’s generating plenty of interest with us holding more money on him than we are on favourite Gary Ablett.”
2010 BROWNLOW MEDAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Chris Judd [CARL] 10.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 13.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 14.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 19.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 19.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 19.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 23.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 23.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 23.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 26.00
Simon Black [BRIS] 26.00
Marc Murphy [CARL] 31.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 34.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 34.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 34.00
Alan Didak [COLL] 41.00
Leigh Montagna [STK] 41.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 41.00
Steve Johnson [GEEL] 41.00
Bryce Gibbs [CARL] 51.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 51.00
Daniel Kerr [WCE] 51.00
Daniel Rich [BRIS] 51.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 51.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 51.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 51.00
Bernie Vince [ADEL] 67.00
Brad Sewell [HAW] 67.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 67.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 101.00
Ben Cousins [RICH] 101.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 101.00
Brent Stanton [ESS] 101.00
Brett Deledio [RICH] 101.00
Dean Cox [WCE] 101.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 101.00
Leon Davis [COLL] 101.00
Nicholas Naitanui [WCE] 101.00
Paddy Ryder [ESS] 101.00
Ryan Griffen [WBD] 101.00
Ryan Okeefe [SYD] 101.00
Shaun Higgins [WBD] 101.00
Others 126.00 Plus
The first is from Sporsbet:
One punter is hoping AFL number one draft pick Tom Scully will have a standout debut season – and then some.
Scully has been backed to win more than a million dollars to win the Brownlow Medal with leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.
“We’ve just taken a bet of $700 on Tom Scully to win the Brownlow at the astronomical odds of $1501 to win $1,050,000,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“There’s no doubt he’s a star and will get plenty of game time in Melbourne’s midfield, although it’s a pretty big ask to take Charlie home in your first season.
“We’re still happy to take him on, yet we’ve had to shorten him into $501 on the back of this bet.”
Another youngster to shorten in Brownlow betting is West Coast’s Nic Naitanui, who has tightened from $301 into $81 following his best on ground performance in the NAB Cup opener.
The big move for Scully follows a bet of $1000 to win $500,000 on 28-year old rookie James Podsiadly to win this year’s Coleman Medal.
The next is from Sportingbet and focuses on young superstar Nick Natanui. While he'll be part of my supercoach team, I can't see him doing quite enough to pick up the prized gong.
Take a sneaky look, however, at a couple on the $67 line, notably Brad Sewell and Scott Pendlebury:
NATANUI BACKED FOR BROWNLOW
Exciting West Coast Eagles youngster Nick Natanui has been backed to win the Brownlow Medal at big odds to win the Brownlow Medal at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Natanui represented one of the worst results in the book at this stage.
“There was solid support for him at odds as long as $251 before Friday night’s best on ground performance and there’s been steady support at $101 since,” said Sullivan.
“We have several punters on to win over $10,000 and it’s fair to say he’s generating plenty of interest with us holding more money on him than we are on favourite Gary Ablett.”
2010 BROWNLOW MEDAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Chris Judd [CARL] 10.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 13.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 14.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 19.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 19.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 19.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 23.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 23.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 23.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 26.00
Simon Black [BRIS] 26.00
Marc Murphy [CARL] 31.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 34.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 34.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 34.00
Alan Didak [COLL] 41.00
Leigh Montagna [STK] 41.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 41.00
Steve Johnson [GEEL] 41.00
Bryce Gibbs [CARL] 51.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 51.00
Daniel Kerr [WCE] 51.00
Daniel Rich [BRIS] 51.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 51.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 51.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 51.00
Bernie Vince [ADEL] 67.00
Brad Sewell [HAW] 67.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 67.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 101.00
Ben Cousins [RICH] 101.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 101.00
Brent Stanton [ESS] 101.00
Brett Deledio [RICH] 101.00
Dean Cox [WCE] 101.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 101.00
Leon Davis [COLL] 101.00
Nicholas Naitanui [WCE] 101.00
Paddy Ryder [ESS] 101.00
Ryan Griffen [WBD] 101.00
Ryan Okeefe [SYD] 101.00
Shaun Higgins [WBD] 101.00
Others 126.00 Plus
Friday, February 26, 2010
So You Think You Can Dance odds Australia
KEIRAN NEW DANCE FAVOURITE
Melbourne ballroom dancer Keiran is Sportingbet Australia’s new favourite to take out season three of So You Think You Can Dance.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while bookies were finding it hard to sort out favouritism Keiran had impressed with his consistency.
“Keiran is our third different favourite in three weeks of betting,” said Sullivan.
“While some of the other fancies have struggled with injury and consistency this youngster has been right on the money every time he steps up to dance.”
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Keiran 7.00
Grace 7.50
Heath 7.50
Nick 8.00
Robbie 9.00
Renee 11.00
Jessica.P 11.00
Carly 12.00
Jessie H 14.00
Jess.S 14.00
Matt 15.00
Don 17.00
Issi 17.00
Doug 21.00
Ivy 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Melbourne ballroom dancer Keiran is Sportingbet Australia’s new favourite to take out season three of So You Think You Can Dance.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while bookies were finding it hard to sort out favouritism Keiran had impressed with his consistency.
“Keiran is our third different favourite in three weeks of betting,” said Sullivan.
“While some of the other fancies have struggled with injury and consistency this youngster has been right on the money every time he steps up to dance.”
SYTYCD - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Keiran 7.00
Grace 7.50
Heath 7.50
Nick 8.00
Robbie 9.00
Renee 11.00
Jessica.P 11.00
Carly 12.00
Jessie H 14.00
Jess.S 14.00
Matt 15.00
Don 17.00
Issi 17.00
Doug 21.00
Ivy 26.00
Philipe 34.00
Strange but true betting options
We've seen some strange betting options come through as bookmakers try to capture their share of the market. This one from Victor Chandler in the UK is high on the weird list: Will two players shake hands after the game?
Granted, not just any two players:
Victor Chandler have opened several markets on Chelsea v Man City at Stamford in the light of the continual spat between John Terry and Wayne Bridge. The firm make it a 5/2 shot that they shake hands on the pitch after the match, and spokesman Neal Wilkins admits that despite everything that has happened they might just do it.
“There appears to be no love lost between them, but a quick shake of the hands on a professional level is not out of the question. It might help both parties to make the effort so that they can move on. The alternative argument is that with Bridge now ruling himself out of the England squad he might feel it’s time for a few fireworks. It should be an interesting 90 minutes.”
The firm make it a 7/1 shot that both Terry and Bridge get booked in the same incident, and 33/1 that they both get sent off in the same incident. It’s a 11/2 chance that Bridge gets booked for a challenge on Terry and 13/2 the other way around.
Bridge & Terry to both get booked in same incident 7/1
Bridge & Terry to both get sent off in same incident 33/1
Bridge to be booked for challenge on Terry 11/2
Terry to be booked for challenge on Bridge 13/2
Bridge & Terry to shake hands after final whistle on pitch 5/2
Bridge to be sent off 22/1
Terry to be sent off 25/1
Terry to be booked 3/1
Bridge to be booked 5/2
Granted, not just any two players:
Victor Chandler have opened several markets on Chelsea v Man City at Stamford in the light of the continual spat between John Terry and Wayne Bridge. The firm make it a 5/2 shot that they shake hands on the pitch after the match, and spokesman Neal Wilkins admits that despite everything that has happened they might just do it.
“There appears to be no love lost between them, but a quick shake of the hands on a professional level is not out of the question. It might help both parties to make the effort so that they can move on. The alternative argument is that with Bridge now ruling himself out of the England squad he might feel it’s time for a few fireworks. It should be an interesting 90 minutes.”
The firm make it a 7/1 shot that both Terry and Bridge get booked in the same incident, and 33/1 that they both get sent off in the same incident. It’s a 11/2 chance that Bridge gets booked for a challenge on Terry and 13/2 the other way around.
Bridge & Terry to both get booked in same incident 7/1
Bridge & Terry to both get sent off in same incident 33/1
Bridge to be booked for challenge on Terry 11/2
Terry to be booked for challenge on Bridge 13/2
Bridge & Terry to shake hands after final whistle on pitch 5/2
Bridge to be sent off 22/1
Terry to be sent off 25/1
Terry to be booked 3/1
Bridge to be booked 5/2
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Australian Cup update
BIG BARBARICUS BET
Punters are expecting an improved showing from Barbaricus in this Saturday’s Futurity Stakes after the grey gelding was backed from $81 to $41 for the Australian Cup at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money suggested the Caulfield Cup place getter could be ready to show a glimpse of his best form following two runs from a long spell with one punter backing him to win over $100,000.
“We took a bet of $120,000 to $1500 each way on him for the Australian Cup which would certainly suggest he is getting back to his best,” Sullivan said.
“He is up to the mile in the Futurity on Saturday and you’d think he would have to show something as this will be his final run before the Australian Cup.”
Heart of Dreams retains favouritism for the Australian Cup at $7.00, in Sportingbet’s market, ahead of Zipping at $8.50 and Our Aqaleem at $9.00 but Sullivan said some improved runs on Saturday had seen other contenders emerge.
“Melbourne Cup winner Shocking put in nice run on Saturday and has trimmed up to $11 while Viewed, Littorio and La Rocket all look contenders as well.”
2010 AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 8.50
Our Aqaleem 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Miss Maren 11.00
Daffodil 11.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Changingoftheguard 17.00
Extra Zero 18.00
Zagreb 18.00
La Rocket 18.00
Zarita 23.00
Snipers Bullet 26.00
Joku 31.00
Growl 31.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Barbaricus 41.00
Moatize 81.00
Punters are expecting an improved showing from Barbaricus in this Saturday’s Futurity Stakes after the grey gelding was backed from $81 to $41 for the Australian Cup at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money suggested the Caulfield Cup place getter could be ready to show a glimpse of his best form following two runs from a long spell with one punter backing him to win over $100,000.
“We took a bet of $120,000 to $1500 each way on him for the Australian Cup which would certainly suggest he is getting back to his best,” Sullivan said.
“He is up to the mile in the Futurity on Saturday and you’d think he would have to show something as this will be his final run before the Australian Cup.”
Heart of Dreams retains favouritism for the Australian Cup at $7.00, in Sportingbet’s market, ahead of Zipping at $8.50 and Our Aqaleem at $9.00 but Sullivan said some improved runs on Saturday had seen other contenders emerge.
“Melbourne Cup winner Shocking put in nice run on Saturday and has trimmed up to $11 while Viewed, Littorio and La Rocket all look contenders as well.”
2010 AUSTRALIAN CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Zipping 8.50
Our Aqaleem 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Miss Maren 11.00
Daffodil 11.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 14.00
Littorio 15.00
Sirmione 16.00
Changingoftheguard 17.00
Extra Zero 18.00
Zagreb 18.00
La Rocket 18.00
Zarita 23.00
Snipers Bullet 26.00
Joku 31.00
Growl 31.00
Divine Rebel 35.00
Tobique 35.00
Barbaricus 41.00
Moatize 81.00
Punters getting in early for Melbourne Cup
It seems punters are keen to invest in the Melbourne Cup market nice and early with some big speculation bets being placed:
PUNTER SMELLS THE PERFUME OF BART'S THIRTEENTH CUP VICTORY
One Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Cups King Bart Cummings can win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup with Faint Perfume, backing the VRC Oaks winner to collect over $80,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Shamardal filly had shown plenty of staying potential as a three year old with Oaks winning fillies always fancied for the Cups.
“The punters had $2500 on Faint Perfume at $35 and we have now trimmed her up to $26,” said Sullivan.
“She got better in the spring as the distances got longer and the VRC Oaks winner is always well backed for the Cup, especially when they are trained by Bart Cummings.
“There’s a long way to go until November but it’s a fairly confident bet this far out.”
Alcopop is just favourite for the Cup at Sportingbet at $22 just ahead of Shocking at $23 and a host of horses at $26.
“There has been strong support the obvious contenders such as Shocking and Efficient while there has also been some big bets struck on some of the new blood such as Linton,” Sullivan said.
2010 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Alcopop 22.00
Shocking 23.00
Changingoftheguard 26.00
Viewed 26.00
Speed Gifted 26.00
Monaco Consul 26.00
Faint Perfume 26.00
So You Think 26.00
Linton 28.00
Shamoline Warrior 31.00
Valdemoro 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Efficient 35.00
Vigor 35.00
Hanks 35.00
Trusting 35.00
Oken Bruce Lee 35.00
Profound Beauty 41.00
Purple 41.00
Daffodil 41.00
Metal Bender 41.00
Scouting Wide 41.00
Passchendaele 41.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Master O'Reilly 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
My Scotsgrey 51.00
Viking Legend 51.00
Think Money 61.00
Predatory Pricer 61.00
Rebel Raider 61.00
Hume 71.00
Roman Emperor 71.00
Basaltico 71.00
Hissing Sid 71.00
Spacecraft 71.00
Driffield Gold 71.00
Miss Maren 71.00
Whobegotyou 71.00
My Bentley 71.00
Others 81.00 Plus
PUNTER SMELLS THE PERFUME OF BART'S THIRTEENTH CUP VICTORY
One Sportingbet Australia punter is confident that Cups King Bart Cummings can win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup with Faint Perfume, backing the VRC Oaks winner to collect over $80,000.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Shamardal filly had shown plenty of staying potential as a three year old with Oaks winning fillies always fancied for the Cups.
“The punters had $2500 on Faint Perfume at $35 and we have now trimmed her up to $26,” said Sullivan.
“She got better in the spring as the distances got longer and the VRC Oaks winner is always well backed for the Cup, especially when they are trained by Bart Cummings.
“There’s a long way to go until November but it’s a fairly confident bet this far out.”
Alcopop is just favourite for the Cup at Sportingbet at $22 just ahead of Shocking at $23 and a host of horses at $26.
“There has been strong support the obvious contenders such as Shocking and Efficient while there has also been some big bets struck on some of the new blood such as Linton,” Sullivan said.
2010 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Alcopop 22.00
Shocking 23.00
Changingoftheguard 26.00
Viewed 26.00
Speed Gifted 26.00
Monaco Consul 26.00
Faint Perfume 26.00
So You Think 26.00
Linton 28.00
Shamoline Warrior 31.00
Valdemoro 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Efficient 35.00
Vigor 35.00
Hanks 35.00
Trusting 35.00
Oken Bruce Lee 35.00
Profound Beauty 41.00
Purple 41.00
Daffodil 41.00
Metal Bender 41.00
Scouting Wide 41.00
Passchendaele 41.00
Divine Rebel 41.00
Master O'Reilly 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
My Scotsgrey 51.00
Viking Legend 51.00
Think Money 61.00
Predatory Pricer 61.00
Rebel Raider 61.00
Hume 71.00
Roman Emperor 71.00
Basaltico 71.00
Hissing Sid 71.00
Spacecraft 71.00
Driffield Gold 71.00
Miss Maren 71.00
Whobegotyou 71.00
My Bentley 71.00
Others 81.00 Plus
Update on Futurity Stakes
Update from the bookies on the Futurity Stakes:
LINTON DECISION ROCKS GROUP 1 MARKETS
Betting markets for this Saturday’s Futurity Stakes and next week’s Australian Guineas have been shaken up with Lloyd Williams bypassing the Futurity with exciting colt Linton in favour of taking on Denman in the Guineas.
“With Linton out of the Futurity, Typhoon Tracy is now the hot favourite at $1.60 to beat the boys yet again at Group 1 level,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Linton has been installed a $5 second favourite for the Guineas. We’ve eased Denman out from $1.45 to $1.55 and former Guineas second favourite Set For Fame from $4.20 to $5.50.”
All Markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 Futurity Stakes – Final Field
$1.60 Typhoon Tracy
$4.60 Dao Dao
$6 Sniper’s Bullet
$15 Joku
$19 Lord Tavistock
$101 Barbaricus
2010 Australian Guineas
$1.55 Denman
$5 Linton (not nominated)
$5.50 Set For Fame
$12 Manhattan Rain
$21 Hanks
$21 Irish Lights
$26 Spacecraft
$31 Aloha
$31 Carrara
$31 Extra Zero
$41 Most Immediate
$41 Rockferry
$61 Guru Bob
$81 Rock Classic
Others quoted
LINTON DECISION ROCKS GROUP 1 MARKETS
Betting markets for this Saturday’s Futurity Stakes and next week’s Australian Guineas have been shaken up with Lloyd Williams bypassing the Futurity with exciting colt Linton in favour of taking on Denman in the Guineas.
“With Linton out of the Futurity, Typhoon Tracy is now the hot favourite at $1.60 to beat the boys yet again at Group 1 level,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Linton has been installed a $5 second favourite for the Guineas. We’ve eased Denman out from $1.45 to $1.55 and former Guineas second favourite Set For Fame from $4.20 to $5.50.”
All Markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 Futurity Stakes – Final Field
$1.60 Typhoon Tracy
$4.60 Dao Dao
$6 Sniper’s Bullet
$15 Joku
$19 Lord Tavistock
$101 Barbaricus
2010 Australian Guineas
$1.55 Denman
$5 Linton (not nominated)
$5.50 Set For Fame
$12 Manhattan Rain
$21 Hanks
$21 Irish Lights
$26 Spacecraft
$31 Aloha
$31 Carrara
$31 Extra Zero
$41 Most Immediate
$41 Rockferry
$61 Guru Bob
$81 Rock Classic
Others quoted
Friday, February 19, 2010
Tiger Woods comeback odds
I wish I had the inside on this, but I don't. The Tiger Woods saga has got to be one of the more fun novelty bets in the market.
WHERE WILL TIGER MAKE HIS COMEBACK?
Ahead of Tiger Woods’ highly anticipated press conference at 3am Saturday AEDT, leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has opened a market on where Tiger will make his long awaited return to golf.
The Masters is favourite at $1.55, followed by the Arnold Palmer Invitational at $2.25. He is listed at $101 to announce his retirement from golf.
“It’s really anyone’s guess, although we think the two most likely events are the Masters or the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he is the defending champion,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Which event will Tiger make his comeback in?
$51 Phoenix Open, February 25-28
$41 The Honda Classic, March 4-7
$3.75 World Golf Championships – CA Championship, March 11-14
$17 Transitions Championship, March 18-21
$2.25 Arnold Palmer Invitational, March 25-28
$26 Shell Houston Open, April 1-4
$1.55 Augusta Masters, April 8-11
$7.50 Any other PGA Tournament
$101 To retire
Will Tiger play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta?
$1.35 Yes
$3.05 No
Which Major will Tiger win next?
$3.50 2010 US Masters
$5 2010 US Open
$6 2010 British Masters
$10 2010 US PGA
$13 2011 US Masters
$19 2011 US Open
$26 2011 British Open
$51 2011 US PGA
$3.25 None of the above
WHERE WILL TIGER MAKE HIS COMEBACK?
Ahead of Tiger Woods’ highly anticipated press conference at 3am Saturday AEDT, leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has opened a market on where Tiger will make his long awaited return to golf.
The Masters is favourite at $1.55, followed by the Arnold Palmer Invitational at $2.25. He is listed at $101 to announce his retirement from golf.
“It’s really anyone’s guess, although we think the two most likely events are the Masters or the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he is the defending champion,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Which event will Tiger make his comeback in?
$51 Phoenix Open, February 25-28
$41 The Honda Classic, March 4-7
$3.75 World Golf Championships – CA Championship, March 11-14
$17 Transitions Championship, March 18-21
$2.25 Arnold Palmer Invitational, March 25-28
$26 Shell Houston Open, April 1-4
$1.55 Augusta Masters, April 8-11
$7.50 Any other PGA Tournament
$101 To retire
Will Tiger play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta?
$1.35 Yes
$3.05 No
Which Major will Tiger win next?
$3.50 2010 US Masters
$5 2010 US Open
$6 2010 British Masters
$10 2010 US PGA
$13 2011 US Masters
$19 2011 US Open
$26 2011 British Open
$51 2011 US PGA
$3.25 None of the above
William Reid Stakes update
So, IASBet reckons Benetau will win, yet they're prepared to return win bets which lose to the favourite. Interesting concept!
TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES
IASbet.com's John Hartnett gives punters his thoughts on Saturday's Blue Diamond and Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield.
"Preludes are the best form guide for the Blue Diamond, and both Benetau ($3.70 into $3.20) and Psychologist ($8) were very impressive. Given Psychologist must start from the outside gate, it looks like the colt will be very hard to beat now."
"The Oakleigh Plate is a wide open affair and really is anyone's race. Here de Angels ($7.00) ran a track record last start, Peter Moody has four runners (Wanted $5.50, Headway $15, Avenue $21 and Tickets $17) each with good chances, while Weekend Hussler ($15.00) is the query runner and would not surprise first up. For mine, I think Starspangledbanner ($7.00) is a good each-way bet. He won second up at the 1100m last time in and is drawn to get the gun run".
Iasbet.com has a range of special markets and a money back specials available on the Blue Diamond Stakes:
Money Back Special
Place a win only bet (CITY SuperPrice) on the Blue Diamond Stakes and if your bet selection comes 2nd to BENETEAU, we'll refund your bet up to $200.
And here's sportsbet's take on the show:
MONEY COMES FOR BOOM COLT
Blue Diamond hot-favourite Beneteau has been backed off the map according to leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.
“Eight in every 10 bets we’ve taken today have been on Beneteau, including one of $30,000 at $3.50 on the star Sydney colt,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Star Witness, who was plunged on at $17 in early markets, is also a very bad result. However, both he and the filly Psychologist have been unwanted since their poor draws.”
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 BLUE DIAMOND FINAL FIELD
$3.50 Beneteau
$7.50 Star Witness
$7.50 Psychologist
$8.50 Crystal Lily
$10 Secsession
$11 Shaaheq
$19 Evidentia
$21 Sweet Cheeks
$21 Legalistic
$21 Willow Creek
$21 General Truce
$26 She’s Got Gears
$41 Roulettes
$121 Spirit Cent
$121 Bit Of A Dude
TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES
IASbet.com's John Hartnett gives punters his thoughts on Saturday's Blue Diamond and Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield.
"Preludes are the best form guide for the Blue Diamond, and both Benetau ($3.70 into $3.20) and Psychologist ($8) were very impressive. Given Psychologist must start from the outside gate, it looks like the colt will be very hard to beat now."
"The Oakleigh Plate is a wide open affair and really is anyone's race. Here de Angels ($7.00) ran a track record last start, Peter Moody has four runners (Wanted $5.50, Headway $15, Avenue $21 and Tickets $17) each with good chances, while Weekend Hussler ($15.00) is the query runner and would not surprise first up. For mine, I think Starspangledbanner ($7.00) is a good each-way bet. He won second up at the 1100m last time in and is drawn to get the gun run".
Iasbet.com has a range of special markets and a money back specials available on the Blue Diamond Stakes:
Money Back Special
Place a win only bet (CITY SuperPrice) on the Blue Diamond Stakes and if your bet selection comes 2nd to BENETEAU, we'll refund your bet up to $200.
And here's sportsbet's take on the show:
MONEY COMES FOR BOOM COLT
Blue Diamond hot-favourite Beneteau has been backed off the map according to leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.
“Eight in every 10 bets we’ve taken today have been on Beneteau, including one of $30,000 at $3.50 on the star Sydney colt,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Star Witness, who was plunged on at $17 in early markets, is also a very bad result. However, both he and the filly Psychologist have been unwanted since their poor draws.”
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 BLUE DIAMOND FINAL FIELD
$3.50 Beneteau
$7.50 Star Witness
$7.50 Psychologist
$8.50 Crystal Lily
$10 Secsession
$11 Shaaheq
$19 Evidentia
$21 Sweet Cheeks
$21 Legalistic
$21 Willow Creek
$21 General Truce
$26 She’s Got Gears
$41 Roulettes
$121 Spirit Cent
$121 Bit Of A Dude
Friday, February 12, 2010
Special for Randwick tomorrow
This seems like a good thing to follow. Statement comes from Sportingbet.
SNITZEL'S HALF BROTHER WELL BACKED AT RANDWICK
Some big money has arrived at Sportingbet Australia for Gerard Ryan’s half brother to Snitzel, Hinchinbrook, to win on debut at Randwick tomorrow.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the son of Fastnet Rock had been backed in from $3.10 to $2.50.
“We’ve taken a string of bets on this bloke including one of $10,000 at the $3.10,” said Sullivan.
“By all accounts he was ultra impressive at his latest trial and the money suggests he’ll be hard to beat tomorrow.”
Sullivan said there had also been a nibble on the horse to win the Golden Slipper.
“He’s been backed from $34 to $17 with us so you’d have to think it has its fair share of ability,” he said.
SNITZEL'S HALF BROTHER WELL BACKED AT RANDWICK
Some big money has arrived at Sportingbet Australia for Gerard Ryan’s half brother to Snitzel, Hinchinbrook, to win on debut at Randwick tomorrow.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the son of Fastnet Rock had been backed in from $3.10 to $2.50.
“We’ve taken a string of bets on this bloke including one of $10,000 at the $3.10,” said Sullivan.
“By all accounts he was ultra impressive at his latest trial and the money suggests he’ll be hard to beat tomorrow.”
Sullivan said there had also been a nibble on the horse to win the Golden Slipper.
“He’s been backed from $34 to $17 with us so you’d have to think it has its fair share of ability,” he said.
Tiger Woods to surface in Augusta
This is a prime example of how bookmakers are diversifying their markets. They're asking whether Tiger Woods will play at the season's first major. Origin reports said he'd take 12 months off.
Here's the word from Sportsbet.com:
Following recent reports that Tiger Woods may play at the Accenture Match Play Championship next week, Sportsbet.com.au were quickly swamped by punters wishing to bet that Tiger would be a no-show.
“We put up $1.55 on Tiger not playing at the Accenture Match Play Championship, which was quickly smashed into $1.30,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Given Accenture was one of the first companies to drop Tiger it would surprise if he made his comeback at this event.”
Talk has now focused on whether or not Tiger will tee it up at this year’s first Major - The US Masters - which begins on April 8 at Augusta.
“We think Tiger will make it back for the Masters and have installed him as a $1.35 favourite to play at Augusta, with $3.05 available on Tiger not to play the year’s first Major,” said Lane.
All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Will Tiger play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta?
$1.35 Yes
$3.05 No
Which Major will Tiger win next?
$3.50 2010 US Masters
$5 2010 US Open
$6 2010 British Masters
$10 2010 US PGA
$13 2011 US Masters
$19 2011 US Open
$26 2011 British Open
$51 2011 US PGA
Here's the word from Sportsbet.com:
Following recent reports that Tiger Woods may play at the Accenture Match Play Championship next week, Sportsbet.com.au were quickly swamped by punters wishing to bet that Tiger would be a no-show.
“We put up $1.55 on Tiger not playing at the Accenture Match Play Championship, which was quickly smashed into $1.30,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“Given Accenture was one of the first companies to drop Tiger it would surprise if he made his comeback at this event.”
Talk has now focused on whether or not Tiger will tee it up at this year’s first Major - The US Masters - which begins on April 8 at Augusta.
“We think Tiger will make it back for the Masters and have installed him as a $1.35 favourite to play at Augusta, with $3.05 available on Tiger not to play the year’s first Major,” said Lane.
All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
Will Tiger play in the 2010 Masters at Augusta?
$1.35 Yes
$3.05 No
Which Major will Tiger win next?
$3.50 2010 US Masters
$5 2010 US Open
$6 2010 British Masters
$10 2010 US PGA
$13 2011 US Masters
$19 2011 US Open
$26 2011 British Open
$51 2011 US PGA
Tasmanian election on a knife edge
Usually, punters have a fairly good idea of how an election might pan out. The Tasmanian state election is an exception. If the odds are any indication, it could be a cliffhanger.
LABOR SLIGHT FAVOURITE BUT PHOTO FINISH EXPECTED
Labor has been posted as a slight favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to be returned in Tasmania after Premier David Bartlett called a state election for March 20.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Labor were in real danger of losing government but retained favouritism at this stage.
“Labor are $1.80 favourites but I wouldn’t be surprised to see support come from punters for the Liberals here,” Sullivan said.
“The Liberals are $2.00 outsiders but that could well change before March 20.
“The Greens will also be a major factor here in Tasmania again and could potentially hold the balance of power.”
Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the party that provides the Premier so any deal with the Greens could be very influential.
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.80
Liberal 2.00
LABOR SLIGHT FAVOURITE BUT PHOTO FINISH EXPECTED
Labor has been posted as a slight favourite, at Sportingbet Australia, to be returned in Tasmania after Premier David Bartlett called a state election for March 20.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Labor were in real danger of losing government but retained favouritism at this stage.
“Labor are $1.80 favourites but I wouldn’t be surprised to see support come from punters for the Liberals here,” Sullivan said.
“The Liberals are $2.00 outsiders but that could well change before March 20.
“The Greens will also be a major factor here in Tasmania again and could potentially hold the balance of power.”
Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the party that provides the Premier so any deal with the Greens could be very influential.
TASMANIAN STATE ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.80
Liberal 2.00
William Reid Stakes market fluctuations
More news on the William Reid Stakes, this time from Centrebet:
PUNTERS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF WILLIAM REID STAKES
Punters are treading warily ahead of the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley following Thursday’s downpour according to leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.
“A few of the big punters have said they will wait and see how the track is faring on race day before they step up,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“The early scratching of Black Caviar has really opened up the market. At this stage Nicconi has been the best backed, while Shellscrape, who loves the sting out of the ground, has been backed from $5 into $4.20.”
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 William Reid Stakes
$3.20 Nicconi
$3.60 Wanted
$4.20 Shellscrape
$7 Light Fantastic
$10 Turffontein
$12 Sniper’s Bullet
$26 Mentality
$151 Master O’Rielly
PUNTERS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF WILLIAM REID STAKES
Punters are treading warily ahead of the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley following Thursday’s downpour according to leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.
“A few of the big punters have said they will wait and see how the track is faring on race day before they step up,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“The early scratching of Black Caviar has really opened up the market. At this stage Nicconi has been the best backed, while Shellscrape, who loves the sting out of the ground, has been backed from $5 into $4.20.”
Market courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.
2010 William Reid Stakes
$3.20 Nicconi
$3.60 Wanted
$4.20 Shellscrape
$7 Light Fantastic
$10 Turffontein
$12 Sniper’s Bullet
$26 Mentality
$151 Master O’Rielly
Big bets for Offloaded in Alistair Clark Stakes
It's always nice to know where the money's going ...
PUNTERS UNLOAD ON OFFLOADED
All the talk may have centered around Extra Zero and Linton but punters have decided Lohnro gelding Offhanded is the horse to beat in tomorrow’s Alistair Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Darley galloper had been backed in from $4.60 to $4.00 in the space of an hour.
“The phones rang hot on Friday morning with punters wanting to back the Sydney visitor,” said Sullivan.
“Offhanded hit the line hard last time ay Randwick and has an outstanding record with the sting out of the ground.”
Sullivan said he would not be surprised to see Offhanded firm into favouritism with doubts over his two major challengers.
“Linton was impressive at Cranbourne but this is a fair step up from maiden company, while Extra Zero has shown plenty but has an ordinary strike rate.”
“I would not be surprised in the least if the money doesn’t ease up for Offhanded.”
ALISTAIR CLARK STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Linton 3.80
Extra Zero 4.00
Offhanded 4.00
Rake The Rap 10.00
Eraset 11.00
At The Heads 12.00
Viking Hero 12.00
Cosmocrat 15.00
Prost 101.00
Full Metal Jacket 101.00
PUNTERS UNLOAD ON OFFLOADED
All the talk may have centered around Extra Zero and Linton but punters have decided Lohnro gelding Offhanded is the horse to beat in tomorrow’s Alistair Clark Stakes at Moonee Valley.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Darley galloper had been backed in from $4.60 to $4.00 in the space of an hour.
“The phones rang hot on Friday morning with punters wanting to back the Sydney visitor,” said Sullivan.
“Offhanded hit the line hard last time ay Randwick and has an outstanding record with the sting out of the ground.”
Sullivan said he would not be surprised to see Offhanded firm into favouritism with doubts over his two major challengers.
“Linton was impressive at Cranbourne but this is a fair step up from maiden company, while Extra Zero has shown plenty but has an ordinary strike rate.”
“I would not be surprised in the least if the money doesn’t ease up for Offhanded.”
ALISTAIR CLARK STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Linton 3.80
Extra Zero 4.00
Offhanded 4.00
Rake The Rap 10.00
Eraset 11.00
At The Heads 12.00
Viking Hero 12.00
Cosmocrat 15.00
Prost 101.00
Full Metal Jacket 101.00
Thursday, February 11, 2010
William Reid Stakes
Plenty of news coming through on the William Reid Stakes. First, from IASbet:
TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES
Betting for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes has been turned on its head following the scratching of hot favourite Black Caviar reports IASbet.com's John Hartnett.
"It's a wide open race now without the champion filly," said Hartnett. "The three place getters of the Lightning Stakes are now the top three in the market in Nicconi ($5.50 into $3.20), Wanted ($6.50 into $3.40), and Shellscrape ($11.00 into $4.50)."
"I think Shellscrape finds his right race here. He hasn't raced at the Valley, although he is very suited to the 1200m and he likes the cut out of the ground."
IASbet.com has a range of head to head markets available on the William Reid Stakes, including Nicconi ($1.80) vs Wanted ($1.90), Shellscrape ($1.70) vs Light Fantastic ($2.15), Turffontein ($1.70) vs Snipers Bullet ($2.15), and Master OReilly ($2.75) vs Mentality ($1.45).
And from Sportingbet:
NICCONI NEW WILLIAM REID FAVOURITE
The David Hayes trained Nicconi is Sportingbet Australia’s new William Reid favourite following the shock withdrawl of odds on favourite Black Caviar.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Nicconi’s better record at WFA entitled him to be a slight favourite ahead of Black Caviar’s stablemate Wanted.
“Nicconi deserves the slight edge in the odds but we’re more than prepared to lay him at the $3.20,” said Sullivan.
“There had been strong support for Nicconi even before Black Caviar’s withdrawal as it shortened from $6.50 to $5.50 and I expect to see the money keep coming.
“The scratching of the favourite has done him no favours with the Chris Waller trained Shellscrape now likely to get a soft lead in the race.”
WILLIAM REID STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Nicconi 3.20
Wanted 3.30
Shellscrape 4.80
Light Fantastic 6.00
Sniper’s Bullet 9.00
Turffontein 11.00
Mentality 21.00
Master O’Reilly 101.00
TOP FILLY SCRATCHING GIVES NEW LIFE TO WILLIAM REID STAKES
Betting for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes has been turned on its head following the scratching of hot favourite Black Caviar reports IASbet.com's John Hartnett.
"It's a wide open race now without the champion filly," said Hartnett. "The three place getters of the Lightning Stakes are now the top three in the market in Nicconi ($5.50 into $3.20), Wanted ($6.50 into $3.40), and Shellscrape ($11.00 into $4.50)."
"I think Shellscrape finds his right race here. He hasn't raced at the Valley, although he is very suited to the 1200m and he likes the cut out of the ground."
IASbet.com has a range of head to head markets available on the William Reid Stakes, including Nicconi ($1.80) vs Wanted ($1.90), Shellscrape ($1.70) vs Light Fantastic ($2.15), Turffontein ($1.70) vs Snipers Bullet ($2.15), and Master OReilly ($2.75) vs Mentality ($1.45).
And from Sportingbet:
NICCONI NEW WILLIAM REID FAVOURITE
The David Hayes trained Nicconi is Sportingbet Australia’s new William Reid favourite following the shock withdrawl of odds on favourite Black Caviar.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Nicconi’s better record at WFA entitled him to be a slight favourite ahead of Black Caviar’s stablemate Wanted.
“Nicconi deserves the slight edge in the odds but we’re more than prepared to lay him at the $3.20,” said Sullivan.
“There had been strong support for Nicconi even before Black Caviar’s withdrawal as it shortened from $6.50 to $5.50 and I expect to see the money keep coming.
“The scratching of the favourite has done him no favours with the Chris Waller trained Shellscrape now likely to get a soft lead in the race.”
WILLIAM REID STAKES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Nicconi 3.20
Wanted 3.30
Shellscrape 4.80
Light Fantastic 6.00
Sniper’s Bullet 9.00
Turffontein 11.00
Mentality 21.00
Master O’Reilly 101.00
Gold Logie betting opens
Latest statement from Sportingbet:
STONE THE FLAMIING CROWS - COULD ALF GET THE GOLD LOGIE?
Sportingbet Australia has opened betting on the 2010 Gold Logie.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he expected veteran actress Rebecca Gibney to repeat last year’s success.
“Gibney is the lead actress in Australia’s most popular drama and has always been popular with Australian viewers,” said Sullivan.
“While perennial favourites such as Rove McManus and Adam Hills have to be respected, she looks the winner.”
Sullivan said he was wary of a repeat of last year’s Ian Smith campaign repeating with Home And Away veteran Ray Meagher.
“We have Meagher safe in the market at $7.50 after hearing whispers that there could be a vote for Alf campaign,” Sullivan said.
“There’s no doubt he’d be a popular winner and must be respected as the longest serving actor in any serial all over the world.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 2.50
Rove McManus 4.50
Adam Hills 5.50
Ray Meagher 7.50
Natalie Bassingthwaighte 9.00
Rodger Corser 11.00
Joelene Anderson 11.00
Sonia Kruger 14.00
Daniel MacPherson 17.00
Eddie McGuire 21.00
Michael Caton 26.00
Grant Denyer 31.00
Others Quoted
STONE THE FLAMIING CROWS - COULD ALF GET THE GOLD LOGIE?
Sportingbet Australia has opened betting on the 2010 Gold Logie.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he expected veteran actress Rebecca Gibney to repeat last year’s success.
“Gibney is the lead actress in Australia’s most popular drama and has always been popular with Australian viewers,” said Sullivan.
“While perennial favourites such as Rove McManus and Adam Hills have to be respected, she looks the winner.”
Sullivan said he was wary of a repeat of last year’s Ian Smith campaign repeating with Home And Away veteran Ray Meagher.
“We have Meagher safe in the market at $7.50 after hearing whispers that there could be a vote for Alf campaign,” Sullivan said.
“There’s no doubt he’d be a popular winner and must be respected as the longest serving actor in any serial all over the world.”
2010 GOLD LOGIE WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rebecca Gibney 2.50
Rove McManus 4.50
Adam Hills 5.50
Ray Meagher 7.50
Natalie Bassingthwaighte 9.00
Rodger Corser 11.00
Joelene Anderson 11.00
Sonia Kruger 14.00
Daniel MacPherson 17.00
Eddie McGuire 21.00
Michael Caton 26.00
Grant Denyer 31.00
Others Quoted
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