Australian Idol form guide

What a difference a week makes in the world of reality television. And what a vast spread of odds for the Australian Idol market. There’s definite value if you reckon you’ve got it nailed.

For those who care to listen however, here’s a special. I have no allegiance to any site, but sportsbet.com.au is offering head to head betting, and Stan Walker is at $1.60 up against Sabrina Batshon.

Sabrina was in the bottom three last week and is rated by betfair.com.au as second favourite to be eliminated this week, while Stan heads all markets as favourite to win the competition.

Maybe there’s something I don’t know, but it’s a standout for mine. Take the $1.60.

In terms of betting for the winner, I can tell you that the only one punters want to be on is Scott Newnham, the brickie who hasn’t sung before. He has a terrific following and carries the underdog tag – a big advantage in a popularity contest. About 40 per cent of all money laid this week was for Scott.

Meanwhile, here’s the weekly form guide.

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $3; Centrebet $3.25; Betfair $3.05

For his voice and onstage presence alone, this guy deserves his favouritism. But as we all know, this is as much about popularity as it is about talent. And Stan's not the sharpest tool in the shed. It remains to be seen whether his personality can mature as much as his performance skills as the contest wears on. It would be a big surprise if he's not in the top four, and anything can happen from there.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7; Centrebet $6; Betfair $5.70

Latest figures on Betfair show that the agency holds about $7000 on Idol. About $3000 of that is for Scott Newnham, which makes the $7 on Sportsbet great value. His popularity as an honest brickie has bought him some time to listen to voice coaches and improve his raw talent. If he can learn and improve, he's a top chance.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $8; Betfair $7.20

At 18, he's the kid with the most potential. Timing will be everything for Nathan. If he becomes vulnerable to elimination and pulls out one of his Queen-type numbers, he'll go close to making the final weeks of the competition. Again, Centrebet's $8 is probably over the odds.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $6; Centrebet $6; Betfair $7.80

Her confidence is a great thing when she gets on stage, but it's also likely to be her worst enemy. People like a battler, and Kim is not necessarily seen in that light. Young people carry the most weight in terms of voting power, and likelihood is that teenage girls won't always see looks and attitude as a good thing. The odds at this point are very slim given her current standing and status in the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $9; Centrebet $9; Betfair $8.60

The Queensland abbatoir worker from the bush is the dark horse. Her performance last week would have gained her a lot of fans and if she can continue to build, there's every chance she will progress further than many are thinking. Whether she can win, however, is another matter.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $6.50; Centrebet $7.50; Betfair $9.40

Betfair's odds of $9.40 are terrific on a girl who is warming herself to public appeal. Her honesty comes across and Aussies love a determined underdog, a tag which Hayley carries at this point. She will progress and is certainly one of the chances if she can improve her vocal skills to match her good-natured appeal.

Sabrina Batshon: Sportsbet $7.50; Centrebet $6; Betfair $9.40

Allow it to be repeated - this is a popularity contest as much as it is a talent quest. And Sabrina's cocky attitude wins her few fans. This showed last week when she narrowly avoided eviction. Unless she pulls out something extraordinary, chances are she has no more than two weeks left in the competition.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $10; Centrebet $11; Betfair $9.40

This kid doesn't have the same talent as some of the others, particularly Stan and Nathan. But don't count him out. The teen vote will stand him in good stead, and like a few of the others, his current fan base will buy him time. If he can improve his vocal skills, he's still not without a chance, but the odds are about right.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $16; Centrebet $21; Betfair $24

What a mixed bag in the betting for the teacher. As the only 30-year-old remaining in the group, he'll pick up a considerable portion of Casey's votes after he was eliminated last week. And his voice is already improving, as is his professionalism. The $24 isn't a bad bet, but it's worth watching how things progress over the next fortnight.

Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $26; Centrebet $17; Betfair $38

All that "soul man" stuff was an image disaster for this bloke, and it shows in the betting. But his performance two weeks ago won him plenty of support. Last week, however, he came back to reality with an ordinary showing, and it's likely he'll again be in the bottom three. It's a week-to-week prospect for Tim and it's unlikely he can win.