Brownlow medal form guide

Gary Ablett Jnr: $2.75
Clearly the favourite to take this year’s gong, Geelong’s Ablett achieved the second highest number of possessions of any player this season. His good games were fantastic, so expect him to poll a barrel-load of best-on-ground performances. But he did miss a few games, and early in the season, he will be out-polled by Steve Johnson and Paul Chapman. And remember, the Brownlow is a bit like the Melbourne Cup – the favourite rarely wins.

Dane Swan: $5
The Collingwood star will clearly be the best of the Magpies in the polling. He played out of his skin in the middle rounds and will be expected to make a late charge. But given some good tags in the last few rounds, he’ll need to be leading at the Round 20 point of polling to be any chance. Swan firmed into favouritism at the Round 19 mark of the season, and he polled well last year without being a stand-out star. It could be the same scenario again. Swan was the league’s leading possession getter for the season. Expect a bold showing, and perhaps well worth a punt to poll in the top three.

Adam Goodes: $8
Goodes has firmed as the season progressed. The good thing about him is that when he performs well, umpires tend to notice due to the spectacular nature of his play. He might only achieve about 20 possessions a game, but they’re usually memorable, and that’s what counts in the eyes of umpires. But it’s worth remembering that he didn’t poll in the top three players for the Swans’ best and fairest – not the same as attracting umpire votes, but a reasonable indicator that Ryan O’Keefe might have stolen some thunder from the two-time winner. Goodes is a crowd, and perhaps umpire, favourite.

Nick Dal Santo: $9
Consistent throughout St Kilda’s magic stretch, Dal Santo could be regarded a real chance, but if we work on the theory that the spectacular performances usually attract votes, it’s fair to suggest some points will go to Montagna and Reiwoldt. It’s unlikely for mine that he’ll win the medal, but should poll consistently throughout the night.

Chris Judd: $10
Judd is in real contention. When Judd performs well, it usually means his team wins, and that usually means he picks up best-on-ground. His side’s inconsistency will perhaps be his biggest enemy, but he starred in some of the Blues’ losses this season and could be assisted if umpires choose to give him a bundle of 2-point games. Judd is perhaps the best of the players in the second line of betting.

Joel Selwood: $11
Selwood backs up from rising star status in 2008 and again picked up a bag of possessions, particularly in games where Ablett was absent. But Chapman, Johnson and others have also had terrific games. If he was playing in a side without the Brownlow favourite, his chances would perhaps increase exponentially. Expect a bold showing, but not this year for mine.

Leigh Montagna: $12
The Saints follower has plenty of support, and many are regarding him as the best dark-horse chance. The question mark lies over whether he, Dal Santo or Reiwoldt will poll best for the Saints. Given that Goddard should also take some of the early-round votes, the fact that it’s been such a good team season might stand any of the Saints stars in bad stead if they share too many votes.

Nick Reiwoldt: $12
The Saints forward has clearly been the best impact player in the competition, and at these odds, there will be a few people keen to have a dabble on him winning the medal. The thing which stands Reiwoldt in good stead is that his great performances demand attention. And if it is regarded that he’s had eight or nine best-on-ground performances throughout the season, then he’ll be high on the list as the latter-round votes are tallied. Well worth taking a long, hard look.

Simon Black: $13
The Lions performed well above expectations this season, and the former Brownlow winner again starred with plenty of possessions. But unlike the year he won, they haven’t necessarily been game-breaking performances. And many of his possessions were hard-ball gets, which means stats came up as handballs. His voting success will largely depend on how the umpires see such stats and whether they regard his toughness warrants best-on-ground.

Matthew Boyd: $21
The entire Bulldogs team can be eliminated from contention for the Brownlow on the basis that their duties were so well shared throughout the year. Cooney wasn’t as spectacular this year in the midfield which meant Boyd will be noticed. But whether that’s enough to gain him the eight or so best-on-ground performances needed to win the medal will be another matter. The betting is a good guide with one thing in mind - votes from each game need to go to someone, which makes Boyd a dark horse given his team's success.

Brendon Goddard: $21
Goddard firmed towards mid-season as a real shot at the medal, but the Saints utility had a mixed bag. When he was good, he was best-on-ground. But in other games, it’s unlikely he’ll pick up many of the minor votes required to come out on top. Goddard’s votes are likely to be of nuisance value to more fancied Saints players, Dal Santo, Montagna and Reiwoldt.

Scott Thompson: $21
The Crows mid-fielder turned it on this season, but the $21 is a bit short for mine to consider. It’ll be a terrific race between he and Bernie Vince to see which Adelaide player polls best. Whether their consistency through the season was enough to put them near the top of the leaderboard remains to be seen.

Lenny Hayes: $41
Because Hayes plays for Saint Kilda – whose players will naturally poll well due to their season’s success – means he’s considered a chance in the betting. But don’t expect him to be in the top three. There are other far more fancied Saints’ chances.

Bernie Vince: $41
If you’re looking for a long shot to win the medal, Vince for mine is the one. While the betting indicates he won’t win, his season has been terrific, and he’s likely to poll well in Adelaide’s victories. Might be worth a lazy fiver to see him surprise and appear in the top three at the end of the night. But don’t point the finger in this direction if he doesn’t.

Jonathan Brown: $51
Brown starred in a couple of the Lions’ wins this season and there will be little doubt he’ll pick up some best-on-ground votes. But it’s unlikely that it’ll be enough to get him at the top of the leaderboard among other more fancied choices. In his favour is that, like Reiwoldt, he demands to be noticed when he performs well. His workrate this season will also stand him in good stead.

Marc Murphy: $67
Murphy has had a great season with plenty of the ball, but he’s a quiet achiever, unlike his skipper Judd who at times manages to pull out the spectacular. Rest assured, Murphy will poll, but unlikely with the consistency needed to win.

Daniel Rich: $101
The runaway rising star winner should get a few votes in his first season, but don’t expect him to make a miracle dash to the front of the Brownlow list.

Tips:
1. Ablett
2. Reiwoldt
3. Swan

If you’re looking for a second opinion, this is a good start:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/rfnews/shadowing-charlie/2009/09/19/1253209042914.html

* Odds from centrebet.com