Wigan to concede the most goals seems like value. Here's the latest press release from Victor Chandler:
Victor Chandler have installed Brian Laws at 9/1 to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post, and just 5/2 that they finish bottom this season after he was given the nod as Burnley’s new boss, and the firm admit that it was an appointment that took them by surprise.
“This seems a bizarre selection and we fear for the club during the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Dave Jenkins.
“It seems that everything that Coyle had built up could collapse and we really feel they’ll struggle to adapt. Laws is not renowned for his passing football. I hope the Clarets fans have their neck braces ready because it won’t be pretty from now on. This could well end in tears.”
The firm also make Burnley the 7/4 favourites now to concede the most goals this season. They have conceded 40 goals so far closely followed in the betting by Hull City (42) at 2/1 and by Wigan (44) at 5/2.
Burnley to finish bottom
Yes 5/2
No 1/4
Brian Laws to be the Next Premier Manager to leave post 9/1
Who will Concede Most Goals This Season?
Burnley (40) 7/4
Hull City (42 2/1
Wigan (44) 5/2
West Ham (37) 6/1
Blackburn (39) 7/1
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Australia vs Pakistan in Hobart
Below is a release from Sportingbet Australia.
The draw might well indeed be well backed, but it's difficult not to see Australia making it a 3-0 whitewash of the series.
With all the turmoil in the Pakistan team surrounding the selection, or non-selection as the case might well turn out to be, of Kamran Akhmal, the Pakistan temperament could go one of two ways. They could self-destruct (which is the most likely scenario) or they could perform out of their skin.
For mine, they had their chance in Sydney and blew it. My advice: Stay well clear of this betting market due to its unpredictability, but if you really must bet, Australia at $1.72 is the best option.
And remember, rain sometimes enhances the likelihood of a result, particularly if it manages to affect the wicket. Players might need only two hours on each of the last three days to secure a result.
Pakistan’s improved performance in the second Test and the threat of rain has seen punters swarm to back the draw for the third test starting tomorrow in Hobart.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the draw had been backed from $3.65 to $3.30 in the last 24 hours with long range forecasts predicting rain over the last three days.
“The draw has been the only option punters have wanted to back with a number of good bets including one of $4000 at $3.65,” said Sullivan.
“With a prediction of an 80 percent chance of rain for each of the last three days punters are willing to risk Pakistan lasting the first two days without any major damage.”
Australia remain ruling $1.72 favourites at Sportingbet Australia following their miraculous come from behind win in Sydney.
“The win in Sydney could well have smashed the confidence of Pakistan, who really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, so Australia will remain favourites unless the rain really threatens to disrupt play in a big way,” Sullivan said
THIRD TEST – AUSTRALIA V PAKISTAN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Australia 1.72
Draw 3.30
Pakistan 5.50
The draw might well indeed be well backed, but it's difficult not to see Australia making it a 3-0 whitewash of the series.
With all the turmoil in the Pakistan team surrounding the selection, or non-selection as the case might well turn out to be, of Kamran Akhmal, the Pakistan temperament could go one of two ways. They could self-destruct (which is the most likely scenario) or they could perform out of their skin.
For mine, they had their chance in Sydney and blew it. My advice: Stay well clear of this betting market due to its unpredictability, but if you really must bet, Australia at $1.72 is the best option.
And remember, rain sometimes enhances the likelihood of a result, particularly if it manages to affect the wicket. Players might need only two hours on each of the last three days to secure a result.
Pakistan’s improved performance in the second Test and the threat of rain has seen punters swarm to back the draw for the third test starting tomorrow in Hobart.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the draw had been backed from $3.65 to $3.30 in the last 24 hours with long range forecasts predicting rain over the last three days.
“The draw has been the only option punters have wanted to back with a number of good bets including one of $4000 at $3.65,” said Sullivan.
“With a prediction of an 80 percent chance of rain for each of the last three days punters are willing to risk Pakistan lasting the first two days without any major damage.”
Australia remain ruling $1.72 favourites at Sportingbet Australia following their miraculous come from behind win in Sydney.
“The win in Sydney could well have smashed the confidence of Pakistan, who really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, so Australia will remain favourites unless the rain really threatens to disrupt play in a big way,” Sullivan said
THIRD TEST – AUSTRALIA V PAKISTAN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Australia 1.72
Draw 3.30
Pakistan 5.50
Football tip: Get on Manchester City
If you're looking for a longer term investment, Manchester City is a fantastic bet.
A great win at the weekend might mean they're finally putting early-season criticism behind them to produce the results everybody was expecting.
Yes, it does take time for a team to gel. It might just be starting to happen, and with 8.5 points start, it's a great bet.
I'm not as convinced about Everton or Tottenham.
Victor Chandler have opened up several season handicap match bets featuring some old city rivals in the Premier League. They have matched up Man United with Man City, Liverpool with Everton and Arsenal with Tottenham. VC’s spokesman Neal Wilkins thinks that the underdogs in the bets will be the most popular.
“We suspect that we’ll be laying Man City, Everton and Tottenham. City look quite menacing at the moment whereas United seem to be floundering a bit, Everton are slowly getting their act together and Tottenham look like they are only going to improve as the season goes on.”
Man City are getting a handicap of +8.5 points over United, Everton are getting +19.5 points against their city rivals, and Tottenham receive +11.5 against their arch enemies.
Premier League Season Match Bets
Man City (+8.5) 5/6
Man United (-8.5) 5/6
Everton (+19.5) 5/6
Liverpool (-19.5) 5/6
Tottenham (+11.5) 5/6
Arsenal (-11.5) 5/6
A great win at the weekend might mean they're finally putting early-season criticism behind them to produce the results everybody was expecting.
Yes, it does take time for a team to gel. It might just be starting to happen, and with 8.5 points start, it's a great bet.
I'm not as convinced about Everton or Tottenham.
Victor Chandler have opened up several season handicap match bets featuring some old city rivals in the Premier League. They have matched up Man United with Man City, Liverpool with Everton and Arsenal with Tottenham. VC’s spokesman Neal Wilkins thinks that the underdogs in the bets will be the most popular.
“We suspect that we’ll be laying Man City, Everton and Tottenham. City look quite menacing at the moment whereas United seem to be floundering a bit, Everton are slowly getting their act together and Tottenham look like they are only going to improve as the season goes on.”
Man City are getting a handicap of +8.5 points over United, Everton are getting +19.5 points against their city rivals, and Tottenham receive +11.5 against their arch enemies.
Premier League Season Match Bets
Man City (+8.5) 5/6
Man United (-8.5) 5/6
Everton (+19.5) 5/6
Liverpool (-19.5) 5/6
Tottenham (+11.5) 5/6
Arsenal (-11.5) 5/6
Premier League goal scores
If someone said at the beginning of the season that they'd give you better than even money on Chelsea scoring most goals this season - oh, and they'd give you eight goals head start - you'd probably take it.
The same scenario exists now, and we're well into the season. I intentionally don't edit many press releases, so here's the latest from Victor Chandler:
Man City are now 7/1 to be the Premier League highest scorers with Victor Chandler after bagging four goals in last night’s convincing victory over Blackburn. City have now hit the net 42 times in the Premier League so far this season, but are still some way behind the leaders Arsenal who have netted 53.
“The Gunners are clear favourites with 53 goals, but the pack are quite capable of mounting a challenge.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “It only takes a couple of big wins and the whole complexion changes.”
Man United are currently in second place with 46 goals, closely followed by Chelsea on 45. Man City and Tottenham are next best on 42, with Liverpool on 37.
Who will score the most goals in the Premier League this season
Arsenal (53) 11/8
Chelsea (45) 7/4
Man United (46) 2/1
Man City (42) 7/1
Tottenham (42) 10/1
Liverpool (37) 16/1
The same scenario exists now, and we're well into the season. I intentionally don't edit many press releases, so here's the latest from Victor Chandler:
Man City are now 7/1 to be the Premier League highest scorers with Victor Chandler after bagging four goals in last night’s convincing victory over Blackburn. City have now hit the net 42 times in the Premier League so far this season, but are still some way behind the leaders Arsenal who have netted 53.
“The Gunners are clear favourites with 53 goals, but the pack are quite capable of mounting a challenge.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “It only takes a couple of big wins and the whole complexion changes.”
Man United are currently in second place with 46 goals, closely followed by Chelsea on 45. Man City and Tottenham are next best on 42, with Liverpool on 37.
Who will score the most goals in the Premier League this season
Arsenal (53) 11/8
Chelsea (45) 7/4
Man United (46) 2/1
Man City (42) 7/1
Tottenham (42) 10/1
Liverpool (37) 16/1
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Australian Open tennis start list
There is no doubt that Roger Federer and Raphael Nadal will start favourites for the Australian Open.
It's interesting to see that Juan Martin Del Potro is currently nestled between the two in terms of favouritism stakes.
Granted, it's always hard to go past a champion and you'll be getting better than even money on Federer. The media are much more quiet than they were last year when the Fed's pre-event results were just as poor as they are this year.
I guess they're not quite as keen to have mud on their face in case he again finishes the year as the world's top-ranked player.
But let's look at form. Del Potro is fresh from a big win but hasn't played the traditional warm up events. That makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity and difficult to back.
Slide down the list to Nikolay Davydenko. He's the form player, coming from his masters win late last year and his win in last week's warm up event, where he came back from a bagel down in the first set to defeat Raffa.
It's always difficult to bet on Davydenko. In the big money events, he's likely to come out and surprise everyone, yet he's equally able to "throw" - whether intentional or not - his first round match. But at 10/1, he's worth a small investment.
The other one is Robin Soderling. The Swede broke a 12-match losing streak against Federer in Abu Dhabi and has beaten Nadal two out of their last three encounters. He's not yet at the point where he'll consistently win Grand Slams and word is he's not overly liked by the players. But he is erratically capable of anything.
At 25/1, Soderling is a tall man with a big serve and he likes the Melbourne surface. At the odds, he's well worth an investment.
In the women's event, Kim Clijsters (3/1) looks hard to beat, especially if Justine Henin is ruled out. It's not smart to totally eliminate the Williams sisters, particularly Serena who as world number 1 will start favourite to win the event.
But Clijsters is the form player - looking fit and happy.
For those looking for an outsider, Elena Dementieva fires up at 14/1. There was a time last year when she strung together more than 10 games on the trot and was the world's form player, until she fell heavily to American giant killer Melanie Oudin.
It's interesting to see that Juan Martin Del Potro is currently nestled between the two in terms of favouritism stakes.
Granted, it's always hard to go past a champion and you'll be getting better than even money on Federer. The media are much more quiet than they were last year when the Fed's pre-event results were just as poor as they are this year.
I guess they're not quite as keen to have mud on their face in case he again finishes the year as the world's top-ranked player.
But let's look at form. Del Potro is fresh from a big win but hasn't played the traditional warm up events. That makes him somewhat of an unknown quantity and difficult to back.
Slide down the list to Nikolay Davydenko. He's the form player, coming from his masters win late last year and his win in last week's warm up event, where he came back from a bagel down in the first set to defeat Raffa.
It's always difficult to bet on Davydenko. In the big money events, he's likely to come out and surprise everyone, yet he's equally able to "throw" - whether intentional or not - his first round match. But at 10/1, he's worth a small investment.
The other one is Robin Soderling. The Swede broke a 12-match losing streak against Federer in Abu Dhabi and has beaten Nadal two out of their last three encounters. He's not yet at the point where he'll consistently win Grand Slams and word is he's not overly liked by the players. But he is erratically capable of anything.
At 25/1, Soderling is a tall man with a big serve and he likes the Melbourne surface. At the odds, he's well worth an investment.
In the women's event, Kim Clijsters (3/1) looks hard to beat, especially if Justine Henin is ruled out. It's not smart to totally eliminate the Williams sisters, particularly Serena who as world number 1 will start favourite to win the event.
But Clijsters is the form player - looking fit and happy.
For those looking for an outsider, Elena Dementieva fires up at 14/1. There was a time last year when she strung together more than 10 games on the trot and was the world's form player, until she fell heavily to American giant killer Melanie Oudin.
Postponed Premier League matches turns weekend sour
There's good news and bad news.
The good news is we haven't lost any money.
The bad news is that each of Neal Wilkins' tips for the weekend were on matches postponed by Premier League officials due to the weather.
Guest tipsters will be back this Friday, with Neal Wilkins to have another crack. We'll also have another surprise celebrity from the sporting world.
So, balance after week 1 remains at $100.
The good news is we haven't lost any money.
The bad news is that each of Neal Wilkins' tips for the weekend were on matches postponed by Premier League officials due to the weather.
Guest tipsters will be back this Friday, with Neal Wilkins to have another crack. We'll also have another surprise celebrity from the sporting world.
So, balance after week 1 remains at $100.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
KFC Big Bash market ... get on quick
I'm not usually keen on futures markets, but this one is great value. Western Australia overnight - thanks probably to commentary from Mark Waugh who said he'd placed a bet at $9 - has firmed two points to win the KFC Big Bash.
Western Australia has won only one of its three games, but has struck some bad luck with Chris Gayle's injury and other factors.
But they're a terrific side and with the Marsh brothers hitting fantastic form in their last win against Victoria and with Gayle likely to return in their next encounter, they're a real chance.
They'll have to win four games straight, but that's not beyond their well-rounded outfit.
They're still at $7 with Sportsbet, and $6.60 with Betfair, but I wouldn't expect those odds to remain intact for too long. Now's the time to get on, if only for a speculator - we'd suggest 5% of your bankroll.
On a slight tangent, it was interesting to see Queensland last night and the irony of their management policies. It's the side which couldn't buy a Sheffield Shield win in the 70s and 80s, despite some of the world's best players chipping in - Viv Richards not being the least.
Now, they're the only team in the KFC Big Bash not to have an international import. The irony is, it won't matter. They still won't win.
That said, James Hopes is terrific. I look forward to his presence in the Australian one-day team. Let's hope Watson doesn't steal his place.
Western Australia has won only one of its three games, but has struck some bad luck with Chris Gayle's injury and other factors.
But they're a terrific side and with the Marsh brothers hitting fantastic form in their last win against Victoria and with Gayle likely to return in their next encounter, they're a real chance.
They'll have to win four games straight, but that's not beyond their well-rounded outfit.
They're still at $7 with Sportsbet, and $6.60 with Betfair, but I wouldn't expect those odds to remain intact for too long. Now's the time to get on, if only for a speculator - we'd suggest 5% of your bankroll.
On a slight tangent, it was interesting to see Queensland last night and the irony of their management policies. It's the side which couldn't buy a Sheffield Shield win in the 70s and 80s, despite some of the world's best players chipping in - Viv Richards not being the least.
Now, they're the only team in the KFC Big Bash not to have an international import. The irony is, it won't matter. They still won't win.
That said, James Hopes is terrific. I look forward to his presence in the Australian one-day team. Let's hope Watson doesn't steal his place.
How will Darren Ferguson hold up?
Neal, quoted below, is our guest tipster this weekend. He's actively promoting new markets for Victor Chandler. And given there's no racing, all attention is being put on the football.
This is their latest release:
Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.
“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”
Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.
Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?
Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10
Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.
This is their latest release:
Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.
“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”
Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.
Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?
Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10
Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Magic Millions 2yo classic
And from the same bookmaker, here's the market movements for the Magic Millions 2-year-old race at the Gold Coast, Australia:
Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.
Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.
“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.
“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”
Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.
“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.
“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”
There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.
MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00
Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.
Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.
“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.
“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”
Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.
“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.
“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”
There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.
MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00
Love Conquers All is Magic Millions favourite
Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia with the latest market movements for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, Sydney, Australia, this weekend:
The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.
“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.
“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”
Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.
“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.
MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00
The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.
“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.
“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”
Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.
“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.
MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00
How we work our bankroll
Friday guest tipping is up and running again, so I thought it might be worth a quick refresher about how we manage our bankroll, particularly if you want to follow us.
We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.
We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.
Free Friday Guest Tipster is Neal Wilkins
It was minus 5 degrees from where Neal Wilkins gave me a call earlier this week.
Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.
For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.
Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.
Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.
Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.
Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.
As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.
We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)
And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.
Good luck!
* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.
Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.
For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.
Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.
Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.
Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.
Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.
As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.
We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)
And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.
Good luck!
* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Mike Phelan seems set to take over at Burnley FC
When the market was first opened by Victor Chandler on Tuesday, I said it would be nice to have some inside information.
Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.
Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:
Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.
Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:
Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Free tips from Neal Wilkins this Friday
This Friday we start up our "Friday Guest Tipster" column again. Last year, guest tipsters helped build our bankroll with a conservative strategy by 300%.
Let's hope we can do that in 2010.
Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.
He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.
Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.
Let's hope we can do that in 2010.
Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.
He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.
Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.
Australian contender title favourite is Kariz Kariuki
For non-Australian readers, this is a reality boxing show aired on pay television. Boxers were in a knockout-style competition and the final will be aired live on Monday night. The winner gets some money and a pro bout.
While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:
Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.
“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.
“He has to start favourite on that alone.”
Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.
“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.
“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”
AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70
While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:
Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.
“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.
“He has to start favourite on that alone.”
Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.
“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.
“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”
AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70
Mike Phelan and Steve Coppell favourites for Burnley job
I wish I had some inside information, but this new market will be of interest to English football fans:
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Monday, January 4, 2010
Betting in the run
Traditionally, we've been taught to bet before the contest begins.
Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.
Is it worth it?
The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.
Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.
Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.
It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.
Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.
In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.
Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.
Is it worth it?
The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.
Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.
Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.
It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.
Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.
In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.
Betting tip: Know your opposition
How often do you see odds posted as a result of media hype and/or parochial influence.
For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.
You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.
But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.
Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.
This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.
Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?
Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.
Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.
Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.
In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.
For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.
You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.
But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.
Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.
This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.
Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?
Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.
Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.
Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.
In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Was Soderling a good bet against Federer?
Well done to anyone who took the $3.65 on offer for Robin Soderling to beat Roger Federer in Abu Dhabi.
But I still question whether it was a good bet.
Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.
But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).
You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."
But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.
Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.
Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.
Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.
If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html
But I still question whether it was a good bet.
Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.
But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).
You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."
But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.
Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.
Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.
Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.
If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html
Friday, January 1, 2010
New Year's Resolutions
We don't usually follow the crowd, but it's probably timely to let you know what Aussiepunt has in store for 2010:
1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.
2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.
3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.
4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.
5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.
6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.
7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.
8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.
With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!
1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.
2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.
3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.
4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.
5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.
6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.
7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.
8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.
With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!
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