Footy finals hype good for punters

After some unpredictable weeks leading into the finals - the final rounds are always like that - finals time is great for value.

Let's be clear, there will be upsets.

BUT ...

So often in a two-horse race, the media will look for ways the underdog can win. It makes sense for them to do that, to generate interest, to embrace fans of both sides, and thereby generate maximum interest in an event which will lead the news for an entire week - and more in the case of the grand final.

What this means is that odds can become distorted. Take this week's AFL preliminary final for example.

Any other round and I'd suggest St Kilda would be shorter than $1.37 (quoted on sportsbet.com.au). But the Bulldogs are coming off a win, and if they believe the press, they're a good chance of beating the hot premiership favourites.

I'd suggest the $1.37 is terrific odds.

To bust my theory, in the rugby league Parramatta seems to be on a roll. Many have written off the Gold Coast Titans in Sydney. I'd reckon here the $3.35 quoted for the Titans is well over the odds in what should be considered a 50-50 battle.

This, for mine, is the value bet of the weekend.