Federal election a good bet

Politics might be dull to most, but it might be worth a long-term investment.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's popularity ratings are high, and his opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull is scraping the bottom of the barrel. Even worse for the Liberals is that nobody seems to be champing at the bit to take over the beleaguered reins.

It is commonly said in political circles that a win for Labor at the last election was effectively two wins for Rudd and his team.

The stimulus package seems to have struck a positive chord, given the results. On the downside, home loan rates might rise, which would work against the incumbent.

There's plenty of homework and crystal-balling which can be done, but importantly for punters, there's $1.35 waiting for anybody willing to invest long-term in a Labor victory.

Labor will likely shoot for an early election, which means the return should come in time for Christmas 2010. Yes, it's a long wait.

Given polls and the current environment, I'd have thought $1.05 were good odds.

As a good friend used to say: "Better than bank interest, mate." The trick, I guess, is to weigh up the 35% return against a term deposit account.

The other factor, of course, is whether your patience can ride out a possible 18-month wait - something most punters are not overly keen to do.