August 28 election likely

If the government is talking about an August election, which they are, it August 21 and August 28 must be the most likely dates. But that doesn't necessarily mean that that's what's going to happen. When they sit down and realise they haven't finalised pre-selection for a number of seats, they might realise that September 4 would be a far better date.

There will be a few superstitious types who'll worry about the "Crash"-type headlines if it was to be September 11. The only other realistic result is that the August call is a bluff, which means a date after November 27 is the next best bet.

Australia will be heading to the polls on August 28 according to punters betting at Sportingbet Australia with the date backed into ruling favourite at $2.75.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had zeroed in on dates in August but all the big money had been for the 28th.

“We have taken a number of good bets which has seen the 28th shorten from $3.50 to $2.75 in the past twenty four hours,” Sullivan said.

“Julia Gillard’s promotion to PM has certainly seen the polls move in Labor’s favour and punters are convinced that will lead to an early election.

“If the mining tax negotiations are well received, I think it looks a certainty we will be heading to the polls by the end of August.”

Labor continues to firm to win the election with Gillard as leader, shortening from $1.55 when Kevin Rudd was leader to $1.40 currently with Sportingbet.

“The money has all been one way since Julia Gillard became Prime Minister with punters very confident she can beat Tony Abbott,” Sullivan said.

“This is in complete contrast to when Rudd was leader when all the money was for Abbott but his odds have now blown out to $2.85 after being as short as $2.40 last Wednesday.”

Federal Election Date
Sportingbet Australia market
Saturday, July 31 2010 $26.00
Saturday, August 7 2010 $13.00
Saturday, August 14 2010 $13.00
Saturday, August 21 2010 $7.50
Saturday, August 28 2010 $2.75
Saturday, September 4 2010 $6.00
Saturday, September 11 2010 $10.00
Saturday, September 18 2010 $13.00
Saturday, September 25 2010 $21.00
Saturday, October 2 2010 $21.00
Saturday, October 9 2010 $21.00
Saturday, October 16 2010 $13.00
Saturday, October 23 2010 $13.00
Saturday, October 30 2010 $17.00
Saturday, November 6 2010 $17.00
Saturday, November 13 2010 $21.00
Saturday, November 20 2010 $21.00
Saturday, November 27 2010 $34.00
Any Date after November 27, 2010 $6.50