Joe Hockey firms as Liberal leader

Here's a statement put out today by Sportingbet Australia:

Punters are swarming to Opposition leadership contender Joe Hockey, causing his odds to shorten dramatically from $3.00 to $2.35 to lead the Coalition to the next federal election.

In the midst of intense media speculation, precipitated by the admission by Hockey that he had been ‘tapped on the shoulder’ to lead the party, Malcolm Turnbull’s odds have slumped to $2.00.

While Hockey is considered unwilling to mount a challenge and Turnbull is said to be determined to hold onto the leadership, the decision is widely considered to be out of their hands.

The Coalition party room, heavily divided over the forthcoming emissions trading debate, looks set to decide the issue sooner rather than later; creating a degree of uncertainty for punters.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that the Opposition leadership market was hotting up, with Hockey attracting strong betting from punters.

“All the betting is with Hockey at the moment which would reflect his newfound status of leader-elect,” said Mr Sullivan.

“However despite the media being full of obituaries for Turnbull today, he remains short at $2.00 which suggests that this may not be over yet.

“Punters aren’t entirely willing to second guess the Coalition party room, which could do anything – or nothing.”

A third leadership option in Tony Abbott, who has also shortened dramatically in recent times, despite being widely dismissed by commentators as unelectable, brings up the rear at $4.25.

Meanwhile other leadership contenders in Andrew Robb ($17), Peter Dutton ($21) and Julie Bishop ($21) have been overtaken by punters backing ‘Any Other’ at $13.00.

FEDERAL OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP AT THE NEXT FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Turnbull $2.00
Hockey $2.35
Abbott $4.25
Robb $17.00
Dutton $21.00
Bishop $21.00
Any Other $13.00

Michael Sullivan is Friday guest tipster

Leading corporate bookmaker Michael Sullivan isn't shy when it comes to letting people know what he thinks.

As recently as July, he defended himself against NSW Racing after he and other interstate bookies were blamed for a $3 million shortfall in prize money.

Sportingbet sponsors Victorian Racing to the tune of about $3 million a year, but is not given the same sponsorship lattitude in New South Wales.

What happens in the board room might be important to the final outcome of racing. But as punters, we're pretty narrow minded. As long as there's a race, we're happy.

And we're happy to take the superior odds from corporate bookmakers any day. One man who knows all about those odds is the punter who took on a fearless Michael Sullivan to the tune of $5 million on Lonhro winning the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in 2004.

We can only hope Michael sent a bottle of his finest to the connections of eventual race winner Grand Armee.

In between fighting the good fight and counting the beans, however, Michael has found time to give Aussiepunt followers a few tips for the weekend.

So here's how we shape up, thanks to Michael Sullivan:

Caulfield race 9: Horse 9, Tootsie. Michael's comments: Has a wide draw to overcome but will strip much fitter for two runs in Melbourne. Class Kiwi galloper who looks very tough to beat with luck in running.

Caulfield Race 3: Horse 10, Marquardt. Michael's comments: Goes well fresh and has the services of Bowman. Is over the odds and likely to be right in the finish.

Soccer: Australia v Netherlands: Draw. Michael's comments: The Dutch are said to be hungry for revenge but have plenty of quality players out. Australia may be more focused on the Asian Cup Qualifier but pride is still at stake and can hold their number 3 ranked opponents.

As usual at Aussiepunt, we'll be following our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll on each of his tips. We're sorry Michael, but at present our bankroll sits with an opposition bookie. We will, however, be happy to take their money!

We'll be riding Tootsie and Marquardt at each way odds. And a neat $25 on a draw in the soccer.

AFL trade news link

This is the best tracker of trade news I've seen for the AFL, as done by afl.com.au:

http://www.afl.com.au/offseason/tradewindsblog/tabid/15020/Default.aspx

Spring Racing Carnival tipping competition

One thing bookmaker Sportsbet seems to do quite well is its tipping competitions.


Bookies are often looking for the edge when it comes to retaining a loyal audience, and Sportsbet's footy tipping competitions for both league and AFL were well organised.


For those interested, they've not got a spring racing carnival tipping competition under way.


My understanding is you don't have to lodge a bet, nor hold an account with Sportsbet to enter. But there are $85,000 worth of cash and other prizes up for grabs.


First prize is a luxury trip for two to Malaysia. Tipping starts for the Caulfield Cup on Saturday October 17.


There is also a "Fantasy Stable" Competition which kicks off with the Caulfield Guineas tomorrow.


All terms and conditions are on on the Sportsbet website: www.sportsbet.com.au

Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement

As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"

I'd reckon the market has got it about right.

Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:

The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.

“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.

“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”


2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00

Hey Hey vs Masterchef

It's often been said that if you want a good guide for social trends. If that's the case, advertisers should be running to Channel 9 tonight for the second and final Hey Hey It's Saturday (on Wednesday) reunion.

With Sportingbet Australia, it's slipped into $1.05 to top the ratings, and as a friend used to say regularly: "It's better than bank interest."

The reunion show goes head to head with Celebrity Masterchef, and it's unlikely even the attraction of lovely former Hi 5 singer Kathleen de Leon deep-frying a spatchcock will help the cooking show outrate Dickie Knee and Plucka.

So what were bookies thinking when they opened the market at $1.30? Did they think a taped version of old hacks in the kitchen would struggle against the uncertainty of live television? I'm just dirty I didn't get a piece of it.

Regardless, real value comes in the ratings: Hey Hey's first show roped in 2.169 million viewers. You'll get $1.95 for it to top the 2 million mark again, and $1.85 if you think enough people have had a gutfull enough to peg it back to under 2 million.

Maybe the de Leon spatchcock factor will have something to do with that?

You'll get $1.85 if you think Celebrity Masterchef will top 1.4 million viewers and $1.95 if you think it'll fall below that figure.

Expect Hey Hey to drop off a little, but whether that translates to Kathleen de Leon (er, Masterchef) remains on a knife-edge.

Take the 5% interest if you wish, but the exact figures will be tough to call.

Australian Idol form guide: Top 8

I started this, so I guess I'd better keep it up.


This week's big mover in the Australian Idol stakes was Hayley Warner who moved to almost equal favourite with Stan Walker to win the competition.


Aussiepunt earlier picked Hayley to finish as the top female, and I still think we're right there. Our other riding bet is for Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper and after this week's episode, I think we're on a knife-edge with that one.

After a fairly lacklustre week last week, let's see what Harry Conick Jr can do with them this week in Big Band night.

The form:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.45; Sportingbet $2.75; Betfair $2.94

He's been the favourite all along but after he messed up his song last week, there's some value floating around, especially with Betfair which is offering a nice dividend. He'll bounce back and is highly favoured to be in the top three at the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $3.25; Sportingbet $3; Betfair $4

Hayley is emerging as the biggest threat to Stan and that's reflected in the odds. She's come in from $21 before the final 12 was chosen to almost unbackable odds. Her personality is contagious and she's improving as the weeks go by. She's likely to be the girls' best hope.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $8; Sportingbet $6.50; Betfair $14

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Wingham boy is the idol darkhorse and is not taking too many risks with his odds, particularly seeing that other agencies are offering more than double the $6.50 on offer with Sullivan. "While there is no doubt that Stan Walker and Hayley are worthy favourites, James is looking the most likely outside this pair," he says.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $7; Sportingbet $7; Betfair $7.80

Nathan has consistently been around the $6-7 mark and continues to hover as an outside threat to the top two. The boy can sing and he's shaken off Dicko's "gay" tag with admirable grace. We've tipped him to outlast Kim Cooper who was outstanding last week. It's tough to predict how he'll resonate with voters, so it's a week-to-week prospect from here on in.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8.50; Sportingbet $8; Betfair $23

Wow. What's with the $23 at Betfair? Kim was bottom three two weeks in a row and scraped through. But she's lifted her game to a standard many thought she was capable of in early rounds of the betting. Like Nathan, it's a week-to-week prospect from the North Queenslander.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $10; Sportingbet $10; Betfair $7.80

The brickie was an early favourite, but has lost plenty of favour with punters. There's still plenty of money being held by the bookies for this Aussie battler, but his lack of experience is starting to let him down a bit as he's exposed by more-accomplished performers.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $14; Sportingbet $13; Betfair $23

Still the dark horse for mine. His humble approach wins him plenty of favour, but he'll need to pull a few rabbits out of the hat if he's to outlast the majority of the competition.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $12; Sportingbet $14; Betfair $16.50

It's remarkable that someone who hasn't yet appeared in the bottom three can be regarded the rank outsider with the bookies. Her personality is dragging her through the competition and if she can now pull out something special, her odds might again drop. But it's unlikely she can take the title. Each way odds might be the best option for Kate.

AFL trade updates: Bad boys cause market waves

It seems the bad boys are making all the waves in the AFL trade wars - Hall, Fevola and Brown leading the way.

Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.

Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.

No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.

Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx

Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.

"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.

Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.

Big bet on Rudd confidence today

I'm not sure what term deposit accounts pay over 12 months, but I'm pretty sure it's not more than the vicinity of 5%.

I guess that's what whoever it was who lobbed a lazy $50,000 on Labor to win the next Australian Federal election was thinking earlier today.

They'll have to have their money in the hands of Sportingbet Australia for at least 12 months to gain a $15,000 return at $1.30, but few results would be more certain.

If you bet on a sporting event, injury comes into play. A horse or dog could do a leg. But even if illustrious leader Kevin Rudd got hit by a bus, the party would still be able to fall over the line against an opposition languishing under a leader with a 16% approval rating.

I'm not suggesting it will happen by any means, but the riskiest part of the bet is that the bookie goes under - even then there is protection in place.

I'm not sure I'd have the patience for such a long-term investment - there's another football season before such a result comes to fruition.

But what it means is that Labor slides into $1.25 and the Liberal Party drifts to $3.60. There won't be many takers, even at those odds.

The bet came in the face of today's Newspoll result, which showed the Coalition dropping a further three percentage points to trail Labor 42-58 on a two-party preferred basis.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters are only confirming that things may be even worse for the Coalition than what the polls suggest.

“Obviously the Labor party have been looking the goods for a while now at a federal level, and this bet pushes them further into the realm of absolute electoral certainty,” Mr Sullivan said.

“We can’t find a punter who wants to back the Coalition at the moment and something huge would have to happen for them to come back into contention.”

“The Coalition’s chances look to have been hurt by Malcolm Turnbull’s position over the government’s emissions trading legislation, and the air of disunity that has led up to it.”

ICC Champions Trophy final

I'll keep this short. I'd think on form Australia should defeat the kiwis in tonight's final easily.

Granted, there have been upsets in the tournament, but I think $1.38 is a reasonable return.

The New Zealand side relies heavily on its tight fielding to restrict sides below par batting performances. It's then up to their batsmen to be competitive.

Australians have hit form at the right time: Ponting, Watson, Lee, Hussey and Johnson are all handling the South African conditions extraordinarily well.

Anything above $1.30 pre-match is good for mine.

Aussiepunt will be putting a lazy 10% of our bankroll on the Aussies.

Great weekend for aussiepunt

Aussiepunt's bankroll took another 53% rise over the weekend, largely thanks to the big unit from Sportsbet, Matt Campbell.

The former AFL star, turned broadcaster and pro punter, tipped us two winners: Speed Gifted in the 7th at Randwick, and Melbourne to cover the -4.5 line against Parramatta in today's rugby league grand final.

If we thought AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell's two from four record the week before was good (and it was), then Matt's perfect record with aussiepunt takes on legendary status.

Speed Gifted started the betting on Friday at $3.40 but a soggy track at Randwick meant that price blew out to $6.70. Other runners in the race were proven in the wet, but a question mark hung over the imported stayer's ability to handle the heavy track.

The bottom line is that Matt's pick bolted in, and now looks like a real chance to motor over the two mile in a few week's time in Melbourne.

The rugby league bet could have gone either way. We got a bit toey when Fui ran in with eight minutes on the clock. But thankfully, the result went in our favour which added a nice bit of cream on top of an already successful weekend.

The week's stocktake saw us invest in only four events. Two of them were Matt's. Another was a small 5% stake on Pakistan in the one-day thriller - a result which went against us.

And we still have an Australian Idol head to head battle in the running - both Nathan Brake (who we've supported) and Kim Cooper (who we've tipped Nathan to outlast) avoided the bottom three, so we could have a lengthy wait on our hands for that one.

You can catch Matt's weekend tips at sportsbet.com each Friday. We've already lined up a guest tipster for next weekend, but there are now two pretty tough acts to follow.

I'll reveal a bit more about next Friday's guest tipster later in the week.

The bottom line: Our initial bankroll of $100 now stands at $248 with the Idol bet still in the running.

Please note, this site is designed for fun. While we've had a couple of wins, we'll also give a warts and all assessment of our losses. Please don't bet more than you can afford.

Matthew Campbell joins our tipping panel

This week's guest tipster made his mark in the Brisbane Bears midfield from 1987-1993.

For those who don't remember, Matthew Campbell averaged around 18 possessions per game and managed to sneak 28 goals in his 79-game career.

Sadly, the fledgling Bears only managed to win 16 of those games. I do recall trundling down to Carrara on the Gold Coast for Round 20 in 1991 to watch Peter Daicos bag 13 goals, but that's enough reminiscing.

Let's instead focus on Matt's game-high 37 possessions.

Ater a career of individual success amid team disappointments, he's since managed to back a winner career-wise by joining the Sportsbet team in business development.

He is also a sports broadcaster with Fox Sports and has been involved with sports broadcasting for 15 years since retiring from the AFL.

Today, he's been kind enough to share some tips for the weekend.

Tips:

Rugby league: Melbourne to cover the -4.5 start against Parramatta at $1.92.

Horse racing: Saturday, Sydney Race 7, No 9 Speed Gifted to win.

At aussiepunt, we're with you Matt. We'll whack 10% of our bankroll on each of your selections!

Rugby league grand final

"My heart says Parramatta, but my head says Melbourne."

It's a common phrase ringing out amid rugby league fans in Sydney. And while grand finals can by a good betting option given that both teams will be giving their all (and usually the best team does win), this one's tricky.

The question I can't answer is whether the hype will have an effect. Melbourne doesn't have the same passion and expectation as Parramatta. The fairytale aspect behind Parramatta's bid is extraordinary.

Will Hayne and co be able to perform on the big stage? They did last week against the Bulldogs, so you would think they'll be able to repeat the dose.

BUT ... Melbourne is a side full of big-game players. They have half the victorious Queensland State of Origin side, including Greg Inglis, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith.

I'm with the crowd, and the rule of thumb with punting is to always allow your head over-rule your heart.

Melbourne to win.

And if you're unsure, this week's guest tipster is former AFL player Matthew Campbell from Sportsbet. Let's see what he's got to say about the grand final later today!

How will Fevola affect the markets?

It will be interesting to see how the trade of Brendon Fevola affects the long-term AFL betting markets. Just like the stock market, insider trading knowledge about next week's trading period would be handy.

St Kilda and Geelong, as traditionally happens after a grand final, will no doubt be sitting pretty as favourites to repeat the dose in 2010, both at $4.25.

But you can be sure that the team which secures big Fev will drop a couple of points. If it's the Western Bulldogs, as many presume, then they're $7 will probably come in to a similar line as the favourites.

If it's Collingwood, $14 will seem like strawberry jam to punters. Expect that to halve if the Pies can convince the bad boy to join the list of party animals in the black and white.

Sydney at $41 would also shorten, but their sights seem set on Josh Kennedy.

Others in the futures market are Adelaide ($9), Hawthorn ($10), Carlton ($15), Brisbane ($23), Essendon ($26), Port Adelaide ($41), West Coast ($41), Fremantle ($51), Richmond ($51), North Melbourne ($61) and Melbourne ($81).

Cricket thriller gives our bankroll a hit

At the start of this experiment, we said we'd share our wins, losses - warts and all.

And Australia's last-ball win in last night's ICC Champions Trophy clash with Pakistan was a bad result for our bankroll. We predicted the Pakistan team could upset the Australians (at $2.65) and it very nearly happened.

Granted, we treated the bet as a speculator, which meant we only lost 5% of our bankroll.

But like any finely-tuned elite athlete, we hate to lose and feel deeply cut that the performance indicators (a little term I learned hanging around business types) let us down.

We had the teams evenly matched with a slight edge to Pakistan in the bowling and all-rounder stakes. We also said Australia's depth in batting was the key, and that turned out to be the case as numbers 9 and 10 scrambled home with a bye on the last delivery.

At aussiepunt, we still think the Pakistan team is favoured to win the event and we might just have a stab at getting our money back with another speculator on that result.

Let's look at the odds today.

Being an Aussie, it's great to see our boys in the semi-finals, but as a wise punter once said: Always bet with your head, not with your heart.

Our $100 investment now sits at $149 with a $16 bet riding on Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper in Australian Idol at $1.85.

Pakistan vs Australia ICC preview

The ICC Champions' Trophy game tonight looms as a cracker.

In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.

And it's difficult to split the teams.

Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.

Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.

Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.

Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.

Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.

Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.

Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.

Final 9 Australian Idol form guide

Seemingly after much confusion, the Australian Idol market seems to be taking shape.

Most money this week has come for Stan Walker after his fabulous rendition of Purple Rain on Sunday night’s show.

But there is also money coming into the market for Scott Newnham (still), Hayley Warner who has moved into second pick on most markets, and Nathan Brake despite falling into the bottom three last week.

On Betfair, Kim Cooper has dropped out considerably to $24 – by far the largest discrepancy in the markets.

We collected on our last head to head bet, and here’s another good one – Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper at $1.85. It’s not nearly as clear-cut as our last option, but a calculated bet.

We’re also bullish on Hayley Warner to be the last remaining female in the competition at even money ($2).

Meanwhile, let’s see how they’re shaping up:

Stan Walker: Sportsbet $2.50; Betfair $2.54
A standing ovation last week after he belted out a version of Prince’s Purple Rain has catapulted Stan into even firmer favouritism. But remember, it’s not always the best singer who wins Idol. Stan’s personality, albeit harmless, might prove to be his biggest enemy when it comes down to the pointy end of the competition.

Hayley Warner: Sportsbet $5; Betfair $6
Over the first three weeks of the competition, Hayley has been the biggest firmer in the odds. She’s come in from double figure odds to now sit at $5 and a real shot at becoming the next Idol. She’ll get a free ride for a few weeks, particularly if she’s only one of two girls remaining – if, that is, Kim Cooper is one of the next to depart.

Nathan Brake: Sportsbet $6; Betfair $6.60
A shock inclusion in the bottom three last week, Nathan’s honeymoon after an early rendition of We Are the Champions seems to be wearing off. Sadly for him, the Australian public don’t seem to be warming to his personality. After declaring last week he had a girlfriend, perhaps that will change.

Scott Newnham: Sportsbet $7.50; Betfair $5.40
The brickie is the people’s favourite, but the shock value of performing well beyond expectations early seems to be wearing a little thin. He now has to stand up and as the field diminishes, the playing field will become more even. That will not fair well for Scott unless he can learn a few more tricks.

Kim Cooper: Sportsbet $8; Betfair $24
Not many believe she’ll last much longer. That shows in the blowout in Betfair odds, from $6 last week to $24 this week. Kim has been in the bottom three twice and usually the only way to survive after that is to belt out something extraordinary in your following performance. And she didn’t do that last week.

James Johnston: Sportsbet $11; Betfair $9.20
This bloke keeps surprising. He constantly looks like he’ll self-destruct on stage, but has developed a great teen following. It wouldn’t surprise to see him in the top four at the end of the competition, but it’s hard to see him winning.

Kate Cook: Sportsbet $13; Betfair $9.20
Kate’s performance on Sunday was a disaster. But she’s earned herself enough support to buy a week’s grace. Her honesty and country charm has earned her plenty of fans. But her next performance will be the next best guide.

Tim Johnston: Sportsbet $16; Betfair $34
Betfair odds of $34 are about right. A good performance a couple of weeks ago won Tim some support, but he doesn’t have the power nor the pizzazz to be the next Idol. It’s a week-to-week prospect.

Toby Moulton: Sportsbet $17; Betfair $15
This bloke keeps getting better and has the persona to match. For mine, he’s the dark horse of the competition and well over the odds at $17. Don’t be surprised to see him in the top three, and from there anything can happen. Remember, the best singer doesn’t always win.

Is Tiger Woods a good golf bet?

Tiger Woods is undoubtedly one of the best golfers of all time. He is a credit to the sport, a fierce competitor, a noble sportsman, and a worthy champion.

But let’s open a can of worms. Is he really a good bet?

Let’s look at some of the statistics. In the next three tournaments he plays, Tiger will start at anywhere between $2.50 (Australian Masters) and $3.40 (US Masters).

That means at best, Tiger must win one in three tournaments for us to come out on top. At worst, he needs to win every second time he walks out.

While it’s a fair call to suggest he’s favourite each time he plays, it’s also fair to suggest it’s inhuman to finish first past the post each event.

Tiger has won 6 from 17 events this year. If we’d backed him in each one, we might be slightly ahead. We’d also be incredibly frustrated.

Here’s Tiger’s results:

March 3: 17th World Match Play.
March 15: 9th World Golf Championships
March 29: Won Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 12: 6th Masters Tournament
May 3: 4th Quail Hollow Championship
May 10: 8th The Players Championship
June 7: Won The Memorial Tournament
June 21: 6th US Open
July 5: Won AT&T National
July 19: Missed the Cut, British Open
August 2: Won Buick Open
August 9: Won Bridgestone Invitational
August 16: 2nd PGA Championship
August 30: 2nd The Barclays
September 7: 11th Deutsche Bank Championship
September 13: Won BMW Championship
September 27: 2nd The Tour Championship

If you invested in Tiger immediately after the British Open, it’s likely you’d have made your best profit. But as a long-term investment, chances are the bookies will be a little too wise.

A better bet for mine – if you study the golf – is to find a three-ball option you like.

Chances are you’ll find someone with good form who might be paired with a better-known name. In such cases, the form player will usually win with inflated odds.

Either that, or try the old roullette tactic of doubling up each time Tiger loses.

Free horse racing tips and Oz Idol boost bankroll

Thanks to our guest tipster Grant Stockwell who joined aussiepunt on Friday, the bankroll has taken a healthy rise.

We also collected on Australian Idol last night, predicting Stan would outlast Sabrina - yes, I know, it was like tipping the league leader to knock over the favourite for the wooden spoon, but we'll take the $1.60 with sheepish glee.

Stocky, Brisbane's racing correspondent for Australian Associated Press newswire, gave us four tips - two best and two each way.

At aussiepunt, we suggested 10% of our bankroll on each of Grant's four tips. Things weren't looking real good when Grant's best bet was caught well behind the running of the race before hoop Craig Williams managed to make a late run down the short straight.

The horse didn't win but it's definitely one to watch, particularly if it can get an extra 200m or so on Friday night's 1200m run.

His next best was in the first at Randwick - still no joy.

But then things started to happen with his two each way chances both running first past the post. Little Surfer Girl in the third at Randwick paid a very nice $10.50 for the win and $3 for the place. That meant a return of $67.50 on a $10 investment.

McClintock in the fifth paid a little more modest $4.60 and $2.15, making way for a $33.75 return.

Add that to a $32 return from the Idol bet.

That meant our total $100 bankroll rose nicely to $173.25, up 73.25% in seven days.

Thanks Stocky, you are a champion!

Feel free to follow aussiepunt's ups and downs, whether or not you decide to follow our tips. We'll certainly tell it how it is warts and all. Our formula is simple: We'll put 20% of our total bankroll on a good thing, 10% on a good chance with some value, and 5% on a speculator.

Some punting sites charge for tips. We will never do that here.

* Be sure to punt for fun and don't outlay more than you can afford.

Weekend racing tips from Grant Stockwell

Every Friday we’ll be inviting a guest tipster to the Aussiepunt panel, and to kick things off we’ve got an absolute bottler.

Grant Stockwell knows the racing scene inside out. He’s Brisbane’s racing correspondent for AAP and for years he wrote for Racetrack which was Australia’s oldest racing magazine until it closed earlier this year.

He was a correspondent for Turf Monthly when based in Japan.

But more importantly for us, he knows a fair bit about the nags, and he’s found a special for Mooney Valley’s race meeting tonight.

He’s also thrown in a few chances at Randwick tomorrow to keep us interested as we tune into the AFL Grand Final.

Best bet:
Nicconi. Friday night at Moonee Valley. Race 6, horse 6. Currently $3.90 fixed price.

Next best:
Hus Der Lieften. Saturday at Randwick. Race 1, horse 1. Currently $3 fixed price.

Each way:
Little Surfer Girl. Saturday at Randwick. Race 3, horse 5. Currently $7.50 fixed price.
McClintock. Saturday at Randwick. Race 5, horse 5. Currently $6.50 fixed price.

So this week, our bankroll’s with Grant. We’ll invest 10% of our initial investment on each of his tips and hope he’s on the money!