We were in danger of going backwards last night after Central Coast imploded in the soccer, but Brett Lee came to our rescue in the Champions League cricket.
NSW brought us home a $3.10 return on our speculator.
So if you have any late mail on the track this afternoon, be sure to let me and readers of the Aussiepunt blog know.
I still like Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate, but there's virtually no talk of it going into the race. Perhaps people feel it's better suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.
A tip for anybody who might be interested: Sportsbet has a fairly good promotion, allowing its members to tip on each race on the Melbourne card. It's free to enter and there's a $70,000-odd worth of prizes at the end of it.
I figure I've got nothing to lose by giving it a bash!
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Cox Plate odds
In terms of Australian sport, it's all about racing over the next couple of weeks, at least until the end of the Spring Carnival. And the next big race on the calendar is the Cox Plate.
There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.
Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:
Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.
“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”
Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.
“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market
1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13
There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.
Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:
Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.
“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”
Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.
“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market
1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement
As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"
I'd reckon the market has got it about right.
Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:
The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.
“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.
“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”
2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00
I'd reckon the market has got it about right.
Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:
The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.
“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.
“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”
2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Is Tiger Woods a good golf bet?
Tiger Woods is undoubtedly one of the best golfers of all time. He is a credit to the sport, a fierce competitor, a noble sportsman, and a worthy champion.
But let’s open a can of worms. Is he really a good bet?
Let’s look at some of the statistics. In the next three tournaments he plays, Tiger will start at anywhere between $2.50 (Australian Masters) and $3.40 (US Masters).
That means at best, Tiger must win one in three tournaments for us to come out on top. At worst, he needs to win every second time he walks out.
While it’s a fair call to suggest he’s favourite each time he plays, it’s also fair to suggest it’s inhuman to finish first past the post each event.
Tiger has won 6 from 17 events this year. If we’d backed him in each one, we might be slightly ahead. We’d also be incredibly frustrated.
Here’s Tiger’s results:
March 3: 17th World Match Play.
March 15: 9th World Golf Championships
March 29: Won Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 12: 6th Masters Tournament
May 3: 4th Quail Hollow Championship
May 10: 8th The Players Championship
June 7: Won The Memorial Tournament
June 21: 6th US Open
July 5: Won AT&T National
July 19: Missed the Cut, British Open
August 2: Won Buick Open
August 9: Won Bridgestone Invitational
August 16: 2nd PGA Championship
August 30: 2nd The Barclays
September 7: 11th Deutsche Bank Championship
September 13: Won BMW Championship
September 27: 2nd The Tour Championship
If you invested in Tiger immediately after the British Open, it’s likely you’d have made your best profit. But as a long-term investment, chances are the bookies will be a little too wise.
A better bet for mine – if you study the golf – is to find a three-ball option you like.
Chances are you’ll find someone with good form who might be paired with a better-known name. In such cases, the form player will usually win with inflated odds.
Either that, or try the old roullette tactic of doubling up each time Tiger loses.
But let’s open a can of worms. Is he really a good bet?
Let’s look at some of the statistics. In the next three tournaments he plays, Tiger will start at anywhere between $2.50 (Australian Masters) and $3.40 (US Masters).
That means at best, Tiger must win one in three tournaments for us to come out on top. At worst, he needs to win every second time he walks out.
While it’s a fair call to suggest he’s favourite each time he plays, it’s also fair to suggest it’s inhuman to finish first past the post each event.
Tiger has won 6 from 17 events this year. If we’d backed him in each one, we might be slightly ahead. We’d also be incredibly frustrated.
Here’s Tiger’s results:
March 3: 17th World Match Play.
March 15: 9th World Golf Championships
March 29: Won Arnold Palmer Invitational
April 12: 6th Masters Tournament
May 3: 4th Quail Hollow Championship
May 10: 8th The Players Championship
June 7: Won The Memorial Tournament
June 21: 6th US Open
July 5: Won AT&T National
July 19: Missed the Cut, British Open
August 2: Won Buick Open
August 9: Won Bridgestone Invitational
August 16: 2nd PGA Championship
August 30: 2nd The Barclays
September 7: 11th Deutsche Bank Championship
September 13: Won BMW Championship
September 27: 2nd The Tour Championship
If you invested in Tiger immediately after the British Open, it’s likely you’d have made your best profit. But as a long-term investment, chances are the bookies will be a little too wise.
A better bet for mine – if you study the golf – is to find a three-ball option you like.
Chances are you’ll find someone with good form who might be paired with a better-known name. In such cases, the form player will usually win with inflated odds.
Either that, or try the old roullette tactic of doubling up each time Tiger loses.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
The bankroll begins
Well, follow me, share the ups and downs, laugh at me, whatever you like. But I'm putting my money where my mouth is by working a $100 bankroll.
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
And the first bet is in. I'm working with a few theories:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
So, because I think it's a good thing, I've got $20 on Stan Walker to outlast Sabrina Batshon in Australian Idol.
But sports fans who think this is a soft bet, don't despair. There'll be dabbles in all footy codes, cricket, tennis, baseball, basketball, horses, two flies up a wall, whatever. If I think it can win, we'll have a stab.
Events to look forward to: The ICC champions trophy which starts tonight; The footy finals over the next two weekends; The Masters tennis; Premier League soccer; The Spring racing carnival; the list is long and exciting for all sports fans.
Good luck!
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