Sportingbet was offering $8. Either the market has tumbled in a couple of hours, or Sportsbet is a little ahead of its time with the $5 line for Richmond to remain winless.
Either way, here's their statement:
RICHMOND $5 TO GO WINLESS IN 2010
Leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au says Richmond is a $5 chance to go winless throughout the 2010 AFL Premiership Season.
“Given their current form it’s hard to see where the Tigers are going to find an easy kill this year,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.
“We’re offering odds of $5 to punters who think Richmond will not win a match in 2010.”
With at least four omissions from the side that lost to Sydney by 55 points, Richmond has had little support ahead of their Round 4 fixture against Melbourne.
“We cannot lay a bet on the Tigers to beat the Demons this week, which they would normally pencil in as a possible victory,” said Lane.
“They’ve drifted from $2.55 out to $3.35 to defeat the Dees, while Melbourne has firmed from $1.52 into $1.33.”
Richmond has also firmed as the outright favourite in betting for the dreaded Wooden Spoon.
“The Tigers were $5 in pre-season betting for the wooden spoon, now they’re the hot favourite at $1.45,” said Lane.
“We have taken bets of $5000 at $3.75, $3000 at $3.50 and $10,000 at $3.25 on the Tigers for the spoon.”
Showing posts with label AFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFL. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
AFL season preview
I enjoy the rugby league, rugby union, soccer (football), winter sports and pretty much any other sport which makes its way onto my television screen.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
But let’s face it, the AFL season can’t start soon enough, so thank goodness it’s almost Thursday when the fun begins.
And while all the talk is about the Bulldogs, there might be a few other teams raising their heads in contention.
Here’s a brief look at how I see the season finishing:
1. Bulldogs
The Dogs have pretty much the same midfield and forward line penetration they did last year, with the obvious and much talked-about inclusion of Barry Hall at Full forward. It will be interesting to see how Johnson works with Hall, and it will be interesting to see how teams treat them once they get their heads around the modified structure. The Bulldogs are the hope of many fans and a real chance at the flag.
2. Collingwood
Mick Malthouse is right when he says the Pies have snuck under the pre-season radar. Take a look at the midfield and try to find one better – Swan, Ball, Pendlebury, Jolly, Didak, Davis, Thomas and others. It’s got great depth and versatility. The key to their success, however, will be the forward line – a similar one which let them down at the pointy end of last season. If the forwards fire, Collingwood will be hard to stop.
3. St Kilda
Some are suggesting the Saints blew their chance in last year’s grand final. If you believe that, you need a reality check. A good mix of smalls and talls, with Reiwoldt as a focal point is a terrific forward line, and their midfield should lose little with the absence of Ball (who didn’t want to be there anyway). The Saints backline is probably the best in the business, so if they can score 15 goals a game, they’ll win most of them.
4. Hawthorn
A bad season was largely due to injury last year. And while the Hawks still have their problems, they’ll be better off when Sewell, Rioli and co can gel. If they get their midfield right and have to rely less on Luke Hodge as a playmaker, they’ll be able to get better delivery to powerhouse forwards Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughhead. Expect considerable improvement from the 2008 premiers.
5. Geelong
Many seem to have forgotten about Geelong. They remain to be a team of stars, none moreso than Gary Ablett Jr. Add him to Enright, Bartell, Selwood, Chapman, Ling … the list goes on. Add that to a slightly restructured forward line and they’ll continue to be a force into 2010.
6. Brisbane
There’s no need to become hooked on the Fevola line if you’re looking for improvement in the Lions’ den. They have a terrific young line up led by rising star from last year Daniel Rich. Expect the addition of Fevola to free up Jonathan Brown who can no longer be safely double-teamed. Power, Black, Johnstone and star ruckman Mitch Clark make a formidable midfield. They’ll be in the mix come finals time.
7. Adelaide
Injury played a small role in their demise last year, but they still have the core of their powerhouse, including Burton up front. Bernie Vince has over the last two years become one of the competition’s leading midfielders, and van Berlo is there to lend a helping hand. McLeod will continue to bounce off the backline. They are a solid proposition and will cause plenty of opposition headaches.
8. Fremantle
Two years ago, the Dockers took on a good rookie list, and now it’s time for them to perform. Duffield, Headland, recruit McPhie and Pavlich will show leadership, but there are a bunch of young players who can help propel the Dockers into the 8 for the first time in a while. They’ll need a good home record if they are to shut out Essendon, West Coast and others with similar ambitions.
9. Essendon
Bombers fans are talking up their hopes this year thanks to some young recruits. Their side is full of speed, bolstered by solid midfielders such as Jobe Watson and Winderlich. While they will cause some sides some headaches with their run and carry, they’re probably one or two seasons away from serious finals contention.
10. West Coast
All the talk is about Natanui. He’s a good player and as he develops will be a real star of the game. But we need to look around him. Dean Cox has been the backbone of the side and needs some others to stand up around him. Lecras is becoming a star forward, Ben (who?) Cousens and Daniel (who?) Kerr seem to have been forgotten. Expect some upsets from the Eagles as they try to rebuild as the force they once were.
11. North Melbourne
Early in the season, the Roos have some injury concerns including Petrie and Lower, which is exposing their depth. They’ve at times over the past couple of seasons shown signs of improvement, but it’s really time for their star signings Anthony, Thomas, Campbell and co to stand up.
12. Carlton
On paper, it would seem the Blues have a terrific side, and on their day they can beat almost anyone in the competition. The question mark is how they will do without Fevola, but a look at the likes of Bryce Gibbs, young Mitch Robinson, Kreuzer and a strong backline, and it would seem they might be the ones to spring a majority of upsets. We have them in 12th, but don’t be surprised if they threaten the 8, pending some of their second and third-year players standing tall.
13. Sydney
They’ve lost Barry Hall, Micky O, and Darren Jolly, and despite still having Adam Goodes and a gutsy midfield, it’s difficult to see how they’ll create a force powerful enough to score enough points to threaten the top sides.
14. Port Adelaide
Again, on paper, the Port side is full of experience. But if they haven’t got it together by now, it’s hard to see how their ageing pack will make inroads into emerging teams. Travis Boak, the Cornes brothers, Ebert, and Tredrea make good reading, but do they make good football? Expect a bolder showing than 14th if the likes of young Mitch Banner and Justin Westhoff can perform beyond their experience.
15. Richmond
Sadly, this is again a rebuilding year for the Tigers. They have some young stars who they will bleed into the competition. While they hope to be more competitive than last year, they’ll need dramatic improvement to win more than a few games.
16. Melbourne
Trengove and others are star rookies who the Demons will be hoping can take them away from the bottom of the table. They showed signs of again becoming competitive last year, but they’re probably a couple of years away from being a legitimate threat to other sides in the competition. Sadly, they are likely to again be up against Richmond for the wooden spoon.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Kevin Sheedy a long term prospect in West Sydney
I've heard of futures betting, but this is a very long-term investment with very little information on players:
Kevin Sheedy has the job ahead of him at West Sydney according to bookmakers, with Sportingbet Australia posting a market that has Sheedy’s worst year at Essendon favourite to better his opening year at West Sydney.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Sheedy looked the right man for the job, starting a side from nothing was a monumental task and a finals berth in their opening year was a $9.00 outsider.
“Sheedy proved how good a coach he was in 27 years at Essendon but we have his worst year there in 2006 as $1.80 favourite to be better than his first year in West Sydney,” Sullivan said.
“The Bombers won three and drew one in 06 and anything better than that for West Sydney would be a success I would think.
“No matter how good a job he does, you wouldn’t think they are any hope of making the finals in their debut season and we have them $1.05 to be spending September on the sidelines.”
SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 VS SHEEDY’S ESSENDON 2006
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS 2012 To Do Better Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 2.00
GWS 2012 To Do Worse Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 1.80
SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 TO MAKE FINALS
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS To Make 2012 Finals 9.00
GWS To Miss 2012 Finals 1.05
Kevin Sheedy has the job ahead of him at West Sydney according to bookmakers, with Sportingbet Australia posting a market that has Sheedy’s worst year at Essendon favourite to better his opening year at West Sydney.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Sheedy looked the right man for the job, starting a side from nothing was a monumental task and a finals berth in their opening year was a $9.00 outsider.
“Sheedy proved how good a coach he was in 27 years at Essendon but we have his worst year there in 2006 as $1.80 favourite to be better than his first year in West Sydney,” Sullivan said.
“The Bombers won three and drew one in 06 and anything better than that for West Sydney would be a success I would think.
“No matter how good a job he does, you wouldn’t think they are any hope of making the finals in their debut season and we have them $1.05 to be spending September on the sidelines.”
SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 VS SHEEDY’S ESSENDON 2006
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS 2012 To Do Better Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 2.00
GWS 2012 To Do Worse Than Essendon 2006 - 14 Points 1.80
SHEEDY’S GWS 2012 TO MAKE FINALS
Sportingbet Australia Market
GWS To Make 2012 Finals 9.00
GWS To Miss 2012 Finals 1.05
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Fevola move to Brisbane makes impact statement
As we've been predicting at aussiepunt, Fevola's trade to Brisbane has had a large impact on the market. The question I'd like to pose is: "How much better is Fevola than Bradshaw as a full forward target?"
I'd reckon the market has got it about right.
Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:
The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.
“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.
“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”
2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00
I'd reckon the market has got it about right.
Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia:
The Brisbane Lions are the big shorteners in AFL Premiership betting with their odds slashed from $19 to $13 after some aggressive trading culminating in the prospect of a Brown/Fevola dream forward line.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had been happy to take the $13.
“There’s been a fair bit of interest in the Lions over the past couple of days with bets on them outnumbering those on any other club by four to one,” said Sullivan.
“They weren’t too far off the mark this season and even without the coup of an eighty goal a year full forward, they’ve added some experience to compliment a strong list of young players.”
2009 AFL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Geelong 4.00
St Kilda 4.25
Western Bulldogs 6.50
Hawthorn 8.50
Adelaide 10.00
Collingwood 11.00
Brisbane 13.00
Carlton 15.00
Essendon 34.00
Sydney 34.00
West Coast 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Fremantle 51.00
North Melbourne 51.00
Richmond 51.00
Melbourne 67.00
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
AFL trade updates: Bad boys cause market waves
It seems the bad boys are making all the waves in the AFL trade wars - Hall, Fevola and Brown leading the way.
Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.
Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.
No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.
Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx
Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.
"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.
Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.
Expect Sydney's premiership odds for 2010 to plummet if news is confirmed that Brendon Fevola will sign a four-year deal with the Swans.
Paul Roos for mine is being pretty sharp with his trades this year and it's a good thing to slot the Swannies into your top 8 for next year.
No others seem to be affecting the betting too much. Collingwood looks set to effectively swap Leon Davis for Luke Ball. Hawthorn is likely to swap Campbell Brown for Shaun Burgoyne.
Here are some of the latest trade rumours: http://www.sportsentral.com/pro/main/storyreader.aspx?sid=18202&sr=all
http://www.afl.com.au/news/blogarticle/tabid/8123/newsid/85798/default.aspx
Big news yesterday from bookmakers was that the Western Bulldogs have firmed from $7 to $6.50. The move comes off the back of the club's signing of Barry Hall.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reckons big Barry's the missing piece in the Doggies' jigsaw.
"Hall may be 33 but if the Dogs use him wisely, there's no doubt he can help them push for the Premiership that's eluded them since 1954," he said.
Barry for mine though probably would have done better with a move to boxing.
Friday, October 2, 2009
Matthew Campbell joins our tipping panel
This week's guest tipster made his mark in the Brisbane Bears midfield from 1987-1993.
For those who don't remember, Matthew Campbell averaged around 18 possessions per game and managed to sneak 28 goals in his 79-game career.
Sadly, the fledgling Bears only managed to win 16 of those games. I do recall trundling down to Carrara on the Gold Coast for Round 20 in 1991 to watch Peter Daicos bag 13 goals, but that's enough reminiscing.
Let's instead focus on Matt's game-high 37 possessions.
Ater a career of individual success amid team disappointments, he's since managed to back a winner career-wise by joining the Sportsbet team in business development.
He is also a sports broadcaster with Fox Sports and has been involved with sports broadcasting for 15 years since retiring from the AFL.
Today, he's been kind enough to share some tips for the weekend.
Tips:
Rugby league: Melbourne to cover the -4.5 start against Parramatta at $1.92.
Horse racing: Saturday, Sydney Race 7, No 9 Speed Gifted to win.
At aussiepunt, we're with you Matt. We'll whack 10% of our bankroll on each of your selections!
For those who don't remember, Matthew Campbell averaged around 18 possessions per game and managed to sneak 28 goals in his 79-game career.
Sadly, the fledgling Bears only managed to win 16 of those games. I do recall trundling down to Carrara on the Gold Coast for Round 20 in 1991 to watch Peter Daicos bag 13 goals, but that's enough reminiscing.
Let's instead focus on Matt's game-high 37 possessions.
Ater a career of individual success amid team disappointments, he's since managed to back a winner career-wise by joining the Sportsbet team in business development.
He is also a sports broadcaster with Fox Sports and has been involved with sports broadcasting for 15 years since retiring from the AFL.
Today, he's been kind enough to share some tips for the weekend.
Tips:
Rugby league: Melbourne to cover the -4.5 start against Parramatta at $1.92.
Horse racing: Saturday, Sydney Race 7, No 9 Speed Gifted to win.
At aussiepunt, we're with you Matt. We'll whack 10% of our bankroll on each of your selections!
Thursday, October 1, 2009
How will Fevola affect the markets?
It will be interesting to see how the trade of Brendon Fevola affects the long-term AFL betting markets. Just like the stock market, insider trading knowledge about next week's trading period would be handy.
St Kilda and Geelong, as traditionally happens after a grand final, will no doubt be sitting pretty as favourites to repeat the dose in 2010, both at $4.25.
But you can be sure that the team which secures big Fev will drop a couple of points. If it's the Western Bulldogs, as many presume, then they're $7 will probably come in to a similar line as the favourites.
If it's Collingwood, $14 will seem like strawberry jam to punters. Expect that to halve if the Pies can convince the bad boy to join the list of party animals in the black and white.
Sydney at $41 would also shorten, but their sights seem set on Josh Kennedy.
Others in the futures market are Adelaide ($9), Hawthorn ($10), Carlton ($15), Brisbane ($23), Essendon ($26), Port Adelaide ($41), West Coast ($41), Fremantle ($51), Richmond ($51), North Melbourne ($61) and Melbourne ($81).
St Kilda and Geelong, as traditionally happens after a grand final, will no doubt be sitting pretty as favourites to repeat the dose in 2010, both at $4.25.
But you can be sure that the team which secures big Fev will drop a couple of points. If it's the Western Bulldogs, as many presume, then they're $7 will probably come in to a similar line as the favourites.
If it's Collingwood, $14 will seem like strawberry jam to punters. Expect that to halve if the Pies can convince the bad boy to join the list of party animals in the black and white.
Sydney at $41 would also shorten, but their sights seem set on Josh Kennedy.
Others in the futures market are Adelaide ($9), Hawthorn ($10), Carlton ($15), Brisbane ($23), Essendon ($26), Port Adelaide ($41), West Coast ($41), Fremantle ($51), Richmond ($51), North Melbourne ($61) and Melbourne ($81).
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