I'll keep this short. I'd think on form Australia should defeat the kiwis in tonight's final easily.
Granted, there have been upsets in the tournament, but I think $1.38 is a reasonable return.
The New Zealand side relies heavily on its tight fielding to restrict sides below par batting performances. It's then up to their batsmen to be competitive.
Australians have hit form at the right time: Ponting, Watson, Lee, Hussey and Johnson are all handling the South African conditions extraordinarily well.
Anything above $1.30 pre-match is good for mine.
Aussiepunt will be putting a lazy 10% of our bankroll on the Aussies.
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australia. Show all posts
Monday, October 5, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Cricket thriller gives our bankroll a hit
At the start of this experiment, we said we'd share our wins, losses - warts and all.
And Australia's last-ball win in last night's ICC Champions Trophy clash with Pakistan was a bad result for our bankroll. We predicted the Pakistan team could upset the Australians (at $2.65) and it very nearly happened.
Granted, we treated the bet as a speculator, which meant we only lost 5% of our bankroll.
But like any finely-tuned elite athlete, we hate to lose and feel deeply cut that the performance indicators (a little term I learned hanging around business types) let us down.
We had the teams evenly matched with a slight edge to Pakistan in the bowling and all-rounder stakes. We also said Australia's depth in batting was the key, and that turned out to be the case as numbers 9 and 10 scrambled home with a bye on the last delivery.
At aussiepunt, we still think the Pakistan team is favoured to win the event and we might just have a stab at getting our money back with another speculator on that result.
Let's look at the odds today.
Being an Aussie, it's great to see our boys in the semi-finals, but as a wise punter once said: Always bet with your head, not with your heart.
Our $100 investment now sits at $149 with a $16 bet riding on Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper in Australian Idol at $1.85.
And Australia's last-ball win in last night's ICC Champions Trophy clash with Pakistan was a bad result for our bankroll. We predicted the Pakistan team could upset the Australians (at $2.65) and it very nearly happened.
Granted, we treated the bet as a speculator, which meant we only lost 5% of our bankroll.
But like any finely-tuned elite athlete, we hate to lose and feel deeply cut that the performance indicators (a little term I learned hanging around business types) let us down.
We had the teams evenly matched with a slight edge to Pakistan in the bowling and all-rounder stakes. We also said Australia's depth in batting was the key, and that turned out to be the case as numbers 9 and 10 scrambled home with a bye on the last delivery.
At aussiepunt, we still think the Pakistan team is favoured to win the event and we might just have a stab at getting our money back with another speculator on that result.
Let's look at the odds today.
Being an Aussie, it's great to see our boys in the semi-finals, but as a wise punter once said: Always bet with your head, not with your heart.
Our $100 investment now sits at $149 with a $16 bet riding on Nathan Brake to outlast Kim Cooper in Australian Idol at $1.85.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Pakistan vs Australia ICC preview
The ICC Champions' Trophy game tonight looms as a cracker.
In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.
And it's difficult to split the teams.
Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.
Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.
Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.
Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.
Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.
Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.
Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.
In terms of form, both teams are on the crest of a neatly constructed wave. Pakistan six months ago looked all at sea against the Sri Lankans before sparking a four-game winning streak which they take into the game against the defending champions tonight.
And it's difficult to split the teams.
Ponting vs Malik: Malik scored a hundred and it's difficult to see how Ponting will be dismissed in his next innings after being run out against India.
Watson vs Afridi: Pakistan has the clear advantage in the all-rounder stakes, with Afridi's bowling potentially damaging and his batting potentially lethal.
Hauritz vs Ajmal: Hauritz has been steady as Australia's stock spinner, but Ajmal is proving himself to be world class. It's another area Pakistan has the edge.
Hussey vs Younis Khan: Hussey has found some form and perhaps at the right time for the Aussies, while Younis at his best is one of the top batsmen in the world.
Bowling: Pakistan's strength is with its spinners, but Umar Gul has been bowling well and Mohammad Asif returns to tonight's lineup. Lee, Johnson and Siddle can each go for plenty of runs, but they can equally fire their way through any batting lineup on their day.
Batting depth: This is the one area where Australia has the edge. Pakistan bats comfortably to 8, but falls away badly. Australia has James Hopes at 7 and Johnson at 8, Lee at 9 and Hauritz at 10. All can hold a stick.
Verdict: This is a coin flip. Australia won their last series on neutral turn 3-2 which confirms it will be an evenly matched game. But with odds of $2.65 it's well worth a value bet on the Pakistani's. We'll call it a speculator and put 5% of our bankroll on the dark green machine.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
ICC Champions Trophy form guide - Australia
Australia
Form since July:
Lost by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 111 runs vs England
Won by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 7 wickets vs England
Won by 6 wickets vs England
Won by 39 runs vs England
Won by 4 runs vs England
Won by 189 runs vs Scotland
Summary:
People could be excused for being confused about the Australian one-day lineup. There have been plenty of changes over the past two years since the retirement of Matthew Hayden, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
Regardless, the new-look side was too good for England and still has plenty of firepower, particularly given that Brett Lee seems to have returned to form and fitness. Rest assured, they’ll be keen to repeat their Champions Trophy victory of 2006-07 where they defeated the West Indies in the final.
And form in South Africa since 2000 has been good. They’re the only foreign side to have won more matches than they’ve lost in South Africa since that time.
While performances in England were good, they’re not a great guide against more in-form sides from the sub-continent.
The Australians are a definite chance, but dusty wickets against some of the world’s top spinners might prove to be their biggest enemy.
Form since July:
Lost by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 111 runs vs England
Won by 4 wickets vs England
Won by 7 wickets vs England
Won by 6 wickets vs England
Won by 39 runs vs England
Won by 4 runs vs England
Won by 189 runs vs Scotland
Summary:
People could be excused for being confused about the Australian one-day lineup. There have been plenty of changes over the past two years since the retirement of Matthew Hayden, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist.
Regardless, the new-look side was too good for England and still has plenty of firepower, particularly given that Brett Lee seems to have returned to form and fitness. Rest assured, they’ll be keen to repeat their Champions Trophy victory of 2006-07 where they defeated the West Indies in the final.
And form in South Africa since 2000 has been good. They’re the only foreign side to have won more matches than they’ve lost in South Africa since that time.
While performances in England were good, they’re not a great guide against more in-form sides from the sub-continent.
The Australians are a definite chance, but dusty wickets against some of the world’s top spinners might prove to be their biggest enemy.
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